A broad look at energy in India by Soumya Dutta
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Transcript of A broad look at energy in India by Soumya Dutta
ENERGY & PEOPLE IN INDIA & WORLD A CLIMATE-CRISIS PERSPECTIVE
SOUMYA DUTTA – BJVJ / DP/ SADED
ENERGY GLUTTONS – EATS EARTHKNOW WHO THEY ARE ?
AFRICA – THE CONTINENT WITH HUGE ENERGY RESOURCES & THE MOST ENERGY-DEPRIVED PEOPLE (barring north) IN THE WORLD .
FUNDAMENTAL SOURCES OF ENERGY ONLY FOUR SOURCES ON THE EARTH
SUN RADIATION – CURRENT SOLAR – SOLAR HEAT (SOURCE - - WIND NUCLEAR FUSION) - SOLAR PHOTO-VOLTAIC -STORED SOLAR – SHORT TERM - HYDRO /WIND ENERGY
( DAYS to YEARS) - BIO MASS, FOOD - ANIMAL/HUMAN
ENERGY - OTHERS (lightning, amb.
atm) LONG TERM - GAS HYDRATES, …. ( 1000’s of YEARS) - OCEAN
THERMAL/CURRENT VERY LONG TERM (fossil) – COAL, OIL, GAS, SHALE (MANY MILLIONS OF YEARS)
NUCLEAR (Cosmic) - FISSION – URANIUM, THORIUM FUSION (future) – DEUTERIUM /TRITIUM
MOON -SUN (Gravity) – TIDAL ENERGYEARTH (Heat) – GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
SOUMYA DUTTA
HUMAN ENERGY USE FROM ‘MODERN’ BEGINNINGS TO
NOW
~60,000 BC(emergence of
‘modern’ man)~>1,700AD SUN –CURRENT HEAT/LIGHT/WIND -SHORT STORAGE WOOD/BIOMASS FOOD HYDRO ENERGY WIND ANIMAL ENRGYEARTH – HEAT
~1,700 AD to NOW SUN (as before), PLUS SUN –PHOTO VOLTAICSUN-FOSSIL FUELS (huge) SUN –WIND ELCTRICITY SUN- HYDRO-ELECTR.NUCLEAR FISSION (U235)MOON –TIDAL ELECTR.EARTH – GEO-THERMAL HEAT &
ELECTR
SOUMYA DUTTA
HOW MUCH DO WE GET FROM WHAT
INDIA WORLD
SOUMYA DUTTA
TOTAL COMML ENRGY
ITS FOSSIL-CARBON THAT DOMINATES
>90% fossil-carbon ~85% fossil-carbon
CONSEQUENCES OF OUR ENERGY CHOICE
AS WE ALL KNOW, THIS IS CAUSING WORLD-WIDE DEVASTATIONS
SOUMYA DUTTA
GLOBAL C-ENERGY USE AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2 BUILD-UP
ITS NOT JUST CO2 OR WARMINGMANY OF EARTH’S VITAL SYSTEMS ARE
CHANGING
NOAA SOUMYA DUTTA
EXCESS CO2 IN ATMSPHR &THE OCEANSIS CAUSING ANOMALIES FROM LONG TERM AVRG
WHY FOSSIL-CARBONS CANNOT INDEFINITELY
REMAIN OUR PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES TODAY, THEY ARE THE PRIMARY SOURCE (~80%)
SCIENCE SHOWS THE ‘SAFE ATMOSPHERIC LIMIT’ OF CO2 IS <350 ppmv, WHAT IF WE CONTINUE TO BURN FOSSIL-CARBONS? REACH >800 ppmv ? WHAT HAPPENS TO LIFE ? WHOLE ATMOSPHERE CONTAINS ‘ONLY’ ~780 GT
SOUMYA DUTTA
EVEN AN OPTIMISTIC CARBON BUDGETDO NOT ALLOW PRESENT C-ENERGY
PATH
GLOBAL EMISSION IN Mt Carbon BLACK LINE – TOTAL EMISSIONSOUMYA
DUTTA
THE FACT THAT ATM. CO2 IS ~390 ppmv NOW, WHILE NEW SCIENCE SETS ‘SAFE-LIMIT’ AT ~350, MEANS WE HAVE -VE C-BUDGET NOW
YET, COAL – HIGHEST C/CAL FOSSIL-FUEL IS GROWING FASTER THAN –
GAS, THE LOWEST C/CAL FOSSIL FUEL
WORLDs ‘DIRTY’ COAL 1998-2008
PRODUCTION
CONSUMPTION
WORLD NATRL GAS CONSUMPTION
SOUMYA DUTTA
AND RENEWABLES ARE STILL A MINISCULE PERCENTAGE
BUT IF WE LOOK - EVEN THE ‘CLEANEST’ FOSSIL-FUEL
IS STILL VERY DIRTY – IN EXTRACTION & PROCESS
SOUMYA DUTTA
THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER POLLUTION, FRACTURING ETC
WHAT ABOUT NUCLEAR (FISSION) ENERGY ?
EXPENSIVE, LONG-GESTATION, HUGE RISKS !
ONLY A HANDFULL OF COUNTRIES GET SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF ELECTRICITY FROM NUCLER-FISSION, AND EVEN THESE – ALONG WITH OTHERS ALREADY LOW – WILL COME DOWN AS A LARGE NO OF THE RUNNING REACTORS (OUT OF 430 odd) APPROACHES END-OF-LIFE.ONLY IN CHINA, INDIA ETC, LARGE NO OF REACTORS ARE PLANNED TO BE BUILT, BUT ….. SOUMYA DUTTANUCLEAR ENERGY ALSO HAS HIGH EMBEDDED & FUEL-CYCLE -ENERGY CONSUMPTIONS, LEADING TO SUBSTANTIAL GHG EMISSIONS
~18 COUNTRIES GET >20% OF THEIR ELECTR
NEARLY 60% OF REACTORS ARE >25 Yrs AGE
WHAT ABOUT THE HIGH RISKS TO PEOPLE?
EXISTING NUCLEAR PLANT SITES
WITH ONLY ~4200 MW INSTALLED, WE HAVE PROBLEMS OF NUCLEAR WASTE – UNTREATABL E WITH ANY KNOWN TECHNOLOGY. WHAT IF THAT BECOMES 40,000-60,000 MW AS PROJECTED?THE ‘NEW SITES’ WITH EXISTING ONES, WILL MAKE ALL HIGH-POPULATION DENSITY AREAS – HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO ROUTINE AND ACCIDENTAL RADIATION AND ACCIDENTS.
SOUMYA DUTTA
COUNTRY-WISE ENERGY-vs-GDP
CHANGE IN GDP AND EMISSIONS 1992-2006
WHAT DRIVES ENERGY CONSUMPTION
‘ECONOMIC GROWTH’ – ENERGY RELATION
SOUMYA DUTTANOT ONE COUNTRY TO ACHIEVE HIGH ‘GROWTH’ W/O HIGH ENERGY CONSUMPTION / EMISSION.
NOT ONLY ECONOMIC GROWTH, FOSSIL-FUELS ALLOWED WORLD POPULATION TO EAT
& GROW
SOUMYA DUTTA
BUT HIGH-INPUT AGRICULTURE, ALONG WITH POWER +INDUSTRY + TRANSPORT… HAS CREATED THE CLIMATE CRISIS & WE ARE APPROACHING RESOURCE PEAKS.
BUT ALL FOSSIL FUEL SOURCESTAPER OF AFTER CERTAIN WITHDRAWAL
US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
UK NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION BOTH ARE IN ‘MATURE STATE’ OF
EXPLOITATION
THE ‘PEAK’ PHENOMENON
SOUMYA DUTTA
PEAK ENERGY FROM – OIL, GAS, COAL, URANIUM
IN A LIMITED EARTH – ALL ‘RESOURCES’ ARE LIMITED
SOUMYA DUTTA
PEAK-OIL, PEAK-GAS, PEAK-COAL – ALL WILL COME ONE AFTER ANOTHER, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY PEAK-WATER (AND PEAK-FOOD ?) ALSO.
WHY DO WE NEED SO MUCH ENERGY ?
INDIAN GOVT. PROPOSES NEARLY 4-FOLD INCREASE IN POWER CAPACITY FROM 2005 TO 2030 !! IT’S INCREASED TO 5-FOLD NOW !!!
TO ORGANISE HUGELY ENERGY-INTENSIVE WORLD- CUP OR CW GAMES ? TO LIGHT-UP OUR NIGHTS LIKE DAYS ? OR TO TRANSPORT ‘MOUNTAINS’ OF GOODS ACROSS VAST OCEANS ? OR ……
SOUMYA DUTTA
< HOUSTON FROM SPACE AT NIGHT
FORCED-CYCLIC CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY INTENSIVE MATERIALS PUSHES UP
CONSUMPTION OF BOTH ENERGY & MATERIALS
A LARGE PART OF THE ENERGY / ELECTRICITY GOES INTO ALUMINIUMSTEEL & CEMENT PRODUCTION;
A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THESEENERGY-INTENSIVE METALS AND MATERIALS GO INTO BUILDING THEPOWER -PLANTS, TRANSMISSION TOWERS, MACHINES TO MINE & TPT ORES -- CREATING A SELF-SERVING CHAIN OF CONSUMPTIONS.
ON A RECENT VISIT TO REMOTE TRIBAL
DISTRICT IN M.P.; I SAW 5 CELL-PHONE
TOWERS IN A SMALL TOWN, A SMALL
VILLAGE HAD 3 !
IMPOSSIBLE TO COMBINE THEM IN 1 ?
^ I
V
SOUMYA DUTTA
NOT ONLY RESOURCE LIMITS ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGES ARE GETTING BEYOND
LIMITS
DAMAGES BY DIFF SECTORS – ON DIFF ‘SYSTEMS’ NOTICE THE HUGE DAMAGES ON WATER RESRS.
COUNTRIES RANKED BY ENVMNTL DAMAGES SOUMYA
DUTTA
THERMAL POWER-PLANTS ALSO CONSUME AND POLLUTE HUGE AMOUNTS OF WATER
Of wastes and wants: Water use in India
Industrial Sector Annual wastewater water discharge (million cubic meters) (%)
Annualconsumption (million cubic meters)
Proportionof water consumed in industry
Thermal power plants 27000.9 35157.4 87.87
Engineering 1551.3 2019.9 5.05
Pulp and paper 695.7 905.8 2.26
Textiles 637.3 829.8 2.07
Steel 396.8 516.6 1.29
Sugar 149.7 194.9 0.49
Fertiliser 56.4 73.5 0.18
Others 241.3 314.2 0.78
Total 30729.2 40012.0 100.0
Note: For methodology see www.downtoearth.org.inSource: Estimated by CSE based on the wastewater discharged data published by CPCB in "Water quality in India (Status and trends) 1990 - 2001".
ABOUT 87% OF ALL WATER CONSUMPTION FROM MAJOR INDUSTRIES IS CONSUMED BY Thermal Power Plants (CSE). SOUMYA
DUTTA
COUNTRIES IN ASIA & AFRICA FACE WATER-STRESSDUE TO POWER/ENERGY PLANTS, INDUSTRIES, MINING
WHILE FOOD DEMAND IN THESE NATIONS INCREASES FAST
FOOD AS ENERGY IS THE MOST BASIC NEED – MUST GET PRECEDENCE OVER ALL OTHER FORMS OF ENERGY USE. BUT WATER DEPLETION & CONTAMINATION IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE FOOD-SECURITY (CONNECTED WITH WATER-SECURITY) OF THE POOR.SO, WE WILL HAVE TO CUT OUR LUXURY ENERGY CONSUMPTION. SOUMYA
DUTTA
WORLD FOOD DEMAND 1500-2050
THAT RULES ‘AGRO-FUELS’ OUT OF RECKONING
AS ‘SOLUTION’ FOR ENERGY/CC CRISES
* TWO YEARS AGO, THE WORLD FACEDFOOD-RIOTS, MAINLY DUE TO LARGECORN-ETHANOL PROGRAMME OF USA; THIS SUMMER, MOZAMBIQUE FACEDFOOD RIOTS, AS CLIMATE-CHANGE-HITRUSSIA STOPPED WHEAT EXPORTS;*LAND CONFLICTS IN INDIAN VILLAGESDUE TO JATROPHA PLANTATION, WHICHGAVE VERY POOR OIL-YIELD /ACRE, IN UN-IRRIGATED, POOR SOIL;*INDIA HAS NO ‘SPARE’ LANDS TO
GROW‘AGRO-FUELS’ WIDELY, WHILE OUR FOODPRODUCTION FLUCTUATES, WITHCLIMATE CHANGE THREATSLOOMING LARGE – FOOD IS PRIORITY;*MOST AGRO-FUELS HAVE POOR EROEINOS., GIVING LITTLE ENERGY GAIN OVER(FOSSIL) ENERGY INVESTED ;
EVEN IN BRAZIL, A COUNTRY ~ 3 TIMES INDIA’S SIZE WITH A SIXTH OF OUR POPULATION – LARGE SCALE AGRO-FUEL PRODUCTION HAS RESULTED IN LARGE-SCALE LAND CONFLICTS. SOUMYA DUTTA
17-09-10
AND WHERE DOES ALL THE ENERGY GO ?
ALONG WITH CO2 DUMPING INGLOBAL ATMOSPHERE, CAUSINGGW & CC,FOSSIL FUELS & NUCLEAR ENERGY
ADDS ALMOST 100% OF THEIR
ENERGY AS HEAT INTO ATMOSPHERE,HYDROSPHERE, BIOSPHERE AND LITHOSPHERE. THIS HEAT IS OVER & ABOVE THEWARMING CAUSED BY GHG-RADIATIVEFORCING OF THE SUN’S HEAT.A VERY LARGE PART OF IT ENDS UP INOCEANS DAMAGING MARINE LIFE. ONCE-THRU COOLING – COASTAL
TPPs/ NPPs, FACTORIES, WARM RIVER
FLOWS.DEAD CORAL – ANDAMAN SEA – HIGH SUMMER HEAT 2010
Soumya DuttaMOST RENEWBLES ADD NO ADDL. HEAT TO THE
ATM/HYDRSP/BIO-SPH
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION BY CO2 IS A ‘BONUS’ !
VIABLE ALTERNATIVES FOR THE WORLD ?
WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TERA-WATTS, 1965-2005
ABAILABILTY OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES – IN TERA-WATTS
SOUMYA DUTTA
BUT EVEN WITH ‘ECO-FRIENDLY’ RENEWABLES
EARTH HAS LIMITS TO GROWTH OF ENERGY-USE
ANY ENERGY EXTRACTION-CONVERSION PROCESS & SYSTEM NEEDS DIFFERENT MATERIALS, AND EVERY MATERIAL ON EARTH IS LIMITED BY ITS FINITE ‘RESERVES’. EVERY EXTRACTION-CONVERSION-CONSUMPTION – RESULTS IN POLLUTION, AND PUT ADDL. PRESSURE ON EARTH’S SYSTEMS PUSHING ‘PLANETARY BOUNDARIES’. WE HAVE ALREADY CROSSED SOME, AND ARE PUSHING OTHERS DANGEROUSLY .
PUSHING ‘PLANETARY BOUNDARIES’
SOUMYA DUTTA
DISTRIBUTED, COMMUNITY CONTROLLED MULTIPLE ENERGY COULD BE ONE ANSWER
SOUMYA DUTTA
WIND SUN
EARTH’s HEAT
PRIMARY BIOLOGICAL/ PLANT PRODUCTIVITY
OUR ENERGY-NEEDS ARE DISTRIBUTEDALL AROUND THE WORLD, WHERE-EVERWE LIVE. SO ARE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES.
WE HAVE VARIETIES OF ENERGY-NEEDS, HEAT, MOTION, LIGHT, …….. RENEWABLES ARE SIMILARLY VARIABLE
FOR ORDINARY HUMAN NEEDS, SMALL ENERGY-AMOUNTS ARE NEDED, RENEWABLES ARE ‘DILUTE’ SOURCES;
WHO IN INDIA CONSUMES WHAT AS ENERGY
LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT FOSSILFUELS & NUCLEAR FISSION – IN THE FOLLOWING SLIDES
SOME CONSUMPTION FACTS1. PER-CAPITA ELCTR ~640 Kwh/Y (ABOUT 40% OF INDIANS HAVE NONE)2. -------------- OIL ~ 113 Kg/Yr. (ABOUT 50% INDIANS GET NOTHING)3. -------------- COAL ~ 500 Kg/Yr. 4. -------------- GAS ~ 1500 SCuFt./Yr (ABOUT 80% INDIANS HAVE NO
ACCESS)5.----FUEL-WOOD ~600-800Kg/Yr /DUNG-CAKE/ … (FOR ~68% POOR INDIAN FAMILIES,
WHO OFTEN HAS TO PAY Rs.2-3 PER Kg) !
POSSIBLY MORE THAN WE PAY FOR OUR ‘CLEAN’ FUEL !!ALL THESE ARE AVERAGES, HIDING HUGE DISPARITIES BETWEEN CLASSES & AREAS
SOUMYA DUTTA
PETROLEUM – INDIA & THE WORLD
INDIA PETROLEUM – PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION
WORLD PETROLEUM –PRODUCTION
SOUMYA DUTTA
2.5 Mn BARRELS/DAY -vs- 85 Mn BARRELS/DAY 120 CRORE PEOPLE 685 CRORE PEOPLE
NATURAL GAS – INDIA & THE WORLD
SOUMYA DUTTA
PRODUCTION-CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS STARTED PEAKING UP IN 2000’s
COAL – INDIA AND THE WORLD
Country INDIA YEAR COAL-Production
2003 375.4 Mn Tons 2004 407.7 2005 428.4 2006 447.3 2007 478.4 2008 521.7 2009 543.0 Share of 5.8% (World
Prodcn) Reserve- ~ 115 Yrs (Life in
Yrs.)
Soumya Dutta
WORLD COAL
ELECTRICITY GENERATION : 1990-2006
WITH ~17% OF WORLD POPULATION, INDIA GENERATES (2006) ~3% OF ITSTOTAL ELECTRICITY; AND MOST OF IT FROM COAL, LARGE HYDRO, GAS.
INDIA WORLD
SOUMYA DUTTA
THE ELECTRICITY-LOSS/WASTAGE+ QUESTION
INDIA HAS ~1,64,000 MW INSTALLEDELECTRICITY CAPACITY (2010);~23% OF THIS IS LOST AS T&D LOSSFROM PLANT TO USER ! CAN BE 10%
,
EVEN BEFORE, COAL-FIRED TPPsWASTE ~67% OF COAL ENERGY ANDGET ~33% AS ELECTRICITY, OUT OF WHICH ~3-4% IS USED FOR PLANT,
SO, ONLY ~21% OF COAL’s CHEMICAL
ENERGY REACH THE USERS,
JUST T&D LOSS IS ~37,000MW !! ENOUGH TO FEED 9 DELHI’s !!! OR30 BIHAR STATES (on present ‘needs’),EQUALS ALL 9 NEW UMPPs !! T&DAT 10% WILL SAVE ~21,000MW, STILLMORE THAN 5 UMPPs >Rs.100K CR.
HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS ARE ALSO LOSING GENERATION CAPACITY DUE TO MASSIVE SILT-DEPOSITS, AND BAD WATER-PLAN,
KEEPING DAMS FULL BEFORE RAINS CAUSES SUDDEN FLOODS,
EXCEPT VERY FEW CO-GENERATION /COMBINED-CYCLE TPPs /NPPs, ALLHEAT THE AIR & WATER AROUND BIG, CAUSING HUGE LOSSES TO AQUATIC LIFE, LIVELIHOODS (& HEALTH LOSS)
EXTRA 5 UMPPs MEAN AN EXTRA ~24MILLION TONS OF TOXIC ASH-
DUMPING-OVER 2 MILLION TONS OF TOXIC ASHFLYING IN AIR – CAUSING DISEASES, CROP LOSSES, CONTAMINATING
WATERSOURCES, ………………. SOUMYA
DUTTA
INDIA – PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2007-08
Energy Type * Units * in Original * in Mtoe *% share in * % share in Units Prmry Comml In Total Energy
Primary
Energy ---------------- -------- ---------------- ------------- ------------- --------------- Coal Mt 501.52 215.48 53.54 39.50 Lignite Mt 34.65 9.71 Oil Mt 139.73 139.73 33.22 24.51 Natural Gas BCM 32.27 29.07 9.34 6.89 LqfdNtrlGas Mt 8.24 10.21 -- --Nuclear Power Mn KWh 16,777 4.38 1.04 0.77 Hydro Power MnKWh 1,28,702 11.07 2.63 1.94 Wind Power MnKWh 11,410 0.98 0.23 0.17 Primry Comml Enrgy Mtoe 420.62 100.00 73.78Non-Comml Enrgy -Mtoe (MAINLY BIO-MASS) 149.50 + 26.22Total Primry Enrgy Consumption Mtoe 570.12 = 100.00
SOUMYA DUTTA
SOURCE : PLANNING COMMISSION
LARGE NOS. STILL USE TRADITIONAL BIO-MASSDISPLACING FROM FOREST CREATES LARGE
MARKETDESIGN BEHIND REDD+, KITCHEN-SOOT SCARE ?
MAJOR PORTIONS OF GLOBAL TOTAL RENEWABLE ENERGY IS STILL TRADITIONAL BIO-MASS, USED BY THE POOR
FIRE-WOOD LPG DUNG K ERSN
> 76% RURAL HOUSE-HOLDS USE FIRE-WOOD, ONLY ~10% RURAL HHs HAVE ACCESS TO LPG OR KEROSENE
SOUMYA DUTTA
WHERE IN INDIA ARE THE ENERGY SOURCES
AND THE POLLUTING POWER PLANTS THAT
CONVERT THIS ENERGY TO USEABLE FORMS ?
SOUMYA DUTTA
BOTH POLLUTING COAL-PLANTS & DANGEROUS NUCLEAR PLANTS ARE LOCATED CLOSE TO HIGH POPULATION DENSITY AREAS.
ENERGY & MINERAL SOURCE/ PLANT LOCATIONS
AND WHO GETS ‘POWER’ FROM THESE
SOUMYA DUTTA
PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRIFIED RURAL HOUSE-HOLDS -> DARK RED <10%, DARK GREEN > 85%
TPPs ARE BLACK-DOTs, COAL-FIELDS –BLUE DROPs , HYDEL PLANTS – BLUE SQRS, ………CONCENTRATIONS MATCH - IN REVERSE !! OPERATION POWER-HUNT ?
ANOTHER PICTURE OF HUGE DISPARITIES THAT HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN DECADES
43% - NO ELECTRICITY, 33% - LESS THAN 50 KwH/Month, 11% - 50-100 KwH/M, 13% - >100 KwH/M; (PRAYAS)
ELECTRICITY
SOUMYA DUTTA
HUGE DISPARITIES BETWEEN STATES & BETWEEN URBAN & RURAL – IN ELECTR. CONSUMPTION -> RICH-POOR DIVIDE.
ENERGY-WATER-AIR ARE THE LIFE-NEEDS OF ALL ANIMALS - INCLUDING US
WE NEED ENERGY EQUITY & JUSTICE
LET THE ENGAGEMENT INTENSIFY,BEARING THE FRUITS OFEQUITABLE SAFE-
ENERGYFOR ALL
TILL THAT TIME ……..
THANK YOU ALL
SOUMYA DUTTA