A Brief Overview of Strategic Foresight - Workshop Slides for SSE-O

SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 1

STRATEGIC FORESIGHTWORKSHOP

SSE-O


TODAY’S SESSIONA BIT OF BACKGROUND.THEN, WE ARE GOING TO ROLL UP OUR SLEEVES & DIG IN. AT THE END, WE WILL HAVE A QUICK REFLECTION.


WHAT IS STRATEGIC FORESIGHT?


WHAT IS STRATEGIC FORESIGHT?GATHERING INTELLIGENCE ABOUT POSSIBLE FUTURES TO INFORM PRESENT DAY DECISIONS


WHY STRATEGIC FORESIGHT?


WHY STRATEGIC FORESIGHT?SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURS ARE CREATING INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR TOMORROW . . . SO THEY NEED TO RESPOND TO POSSIBLE CHANGES WITH VISION AND ONGOING AWARENESS


HOW DO WE DO STRATEGIC FORESIGHT?


HOW DO WE DO STRATEGIC FORESIGHT?

IDENTIFYTRENDS

UNDERSTAND DRIVERS

CREATESCENARIOS

INFORMSTRATEGY


WE WILL EXPERIMENT WITH A RAPID FORESIGHT PROCESS TOGETHER . . .

OUR FOCUS ISTORONTO IN 2030

[BUT YOU COULD USE THIS TO EXPLORE THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED CHURCH, ALTERNATIVE HEALTH, FARM-ING, IMMIGRATION IN CANADA, ETC.]


TIPS1. PAY ATTENTION TO WEAK SIGNALS OF CHANGE.2. UNDERSTAND THAT USEFUL INSIGHTS ABOUT THE FUTURE AT

FIRST APPEAR RIDICULOUS.3. CHALLENGE PRESENT ASSUMPTIONS AND PLAY WITH THE

POSSIBILITIES.4. RIGOROUSLY IMAGINE THE FUTURE - STRETCHING

PLAUSIBILITY, BUT NOT BREAKING IT.5. EXPLORE INTERSECTIONS, NOT ISOLATED EVENTS.6. DON’T JUST THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE, PUT YOURSELF IN THE

FUTURE.7. THERE ARE MULTIPLE POSSIBLE REACTIONS TO THE FUTURE:

ADAPTATION, MITIGATION OR INFLUENCE.


IDENTIFYING TRENDSCURRENT CHANGES OVER TIME

SOCIAL (DEMOGRAPHICS, LIFESTYLES, SOCIAL AND CULTURAL VALUES, BEHAVIOR)

TECHNOLOGICAL (INNOVATION, PRODUCTS, COMMUNICATION, RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT)

ECONOMICAL (JOBS, INCOME, TRADE, PROFIT, TAXES)

ENVIRONMENTAL (ECOSYSTEMS< WATER, FOOD, ENERGY)

POLITICAL (POWER, LAWS, INTERESTS, DIRECTIONS, AGREEMENTS)


IDENTIFYING TRENDSTASK: IDENTIFY ONE CURRENT TREND IN TORONTO RIGHT

NOW AND WRITE IT ON A POST-IT

TWO WORLDS, ONE CITY

(INCOME POLARIZATION AND CONCENTRATION)

GIVE IT A FUN NAME.CALL OUT IT’S SIGNALS.EXTRAPOLATE IT TO 2030.


UNDERSTAND DRIVERSTHE UNDERLYING FORCES OF CHANGE

TASK: MAP THE INFLUENCES BETWEEN TRENDS AND KEY UNDERLYING FORCES.

IDENTIFY THE MOST CRITICAL AND UNCERTAIN DRIVERS.


CREATE SCENARIOSSTORIES OF POSSIBLE FUTURE WORLDS

THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO BUILD SCENARIOS. WE ARE GOING TO USE A SIMPLE 2 BY 2 MATRIX TO IMAGINE TORONTO IN 2030.

HIGH LOW

FAST

SLOW

SCENARIO 1

SCENARIO 2

SCENARIO 3

SCENARIO 4


CREATE SCENARIOS

WHAT WOULD IT BE LIKE TO LIVE IN THE CITY IN THIS FUTURE? HOW IS IT DIFFERENT THAN TODAY?WHAT MIGHT SURPRISE YOU ABOUT THIS FUTURE? WHAT WOULD STAY THE SAME?WHAT ARE SOME OF THE ISSUES IN THE NEWS? WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PAST THAT CREATED THIS?

TASK: IN A SMALL GROUP, WORK TO OUTLINE A SCENARIO FROM ONE OF THE FOUR QUADRANTS.


INFORM STRATEGYPLANS AND PROCESSES TO ACHIEVE GOALS

SCENARIOS CAN BE UTILIZED TO INSPIRE NEW STRATEGIES, TEST CURRENT STRATEGIES, AND REFINE DIRECTIONS.


INFORM STRATEGYPLANS AND PROCESSES TO ACHIEVE GOALS

TASK: IDENTIFY NEW AND OLD STRATEGIES FOR THE CITY OF TORONTO AND SEE IF THEY WOULD BE BENEFICIAL IN EACH OF THE FOUR POSSIBLE FUTURES.

SCENARIOS1 2 3 4

Invest in improving supports for low-income familiesBuild more parks and green spaces in the city


NOW THAT IS STRATEGIC FORESIGHT.BUT IT IS NOT JUST A ONE TIME THING. THERE IS A NEED FOR ONGOING SCANNING AND ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CHANGES. PLUS, RESEARCH & DIVERSE VOICES MAKES THE PROCESS MORE RELIABLE.


FORESIGHT RESOURCESExample Foresight Projects

2020 Media Futures (OCADU) https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNb1l5MDR5WUp4eUE/edit?usp=sharing

Future of Asia (Policy Horizons Canada) http://www.horizons.gc.ca/sites/default/files/Publication-alt-format/pdf_version_0240_1.67mb_57pages_1.pdf

Future of Specialized Health Care Providers (OCADU Student Project) http://www.slideshare.net/JosinaV/dossier-future-of-specialized-services-sfi-foresight-project?utm_source=slideshow&utm_medium=ssemail&utm_campaign=post_upload

Foresight Resources

Scenario Planning [UK Horizon Scanning Centre] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNNHRVZ2FEdXZwRnc/edit?usp=sharing

Future Savvy [Adam Gordon] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNSkVWVlVKaGpmQlE/edit?usp=sharing

Foresight Methodology [Popper] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNeWpuaDM4WHVqWm8/edit?usp=sharing

Scenario Based Strategy In Practice [Louis van der Merwe] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNeWpuaDM4WHVqWm8/edit?usp=sharing

Learnings from the Long View [Peter Schwartz] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNSjdQamw3Y2kxOFE/edit?usp=sharing

Three Horizons Method [Hodgson & Curry] http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-1/A01.pdf


REFLECTIONSHOW DID THIS WACKY FUTURES STUFF FEEL FOR YOU?

WHAT DID YOU LIKE/DISLIKE ABOUT THIS PROCESS?

HOW COULD YOU IMAGINE USING THIS FOR VENTURE DEVELOPMENT?

A Brief Overview of Strategic Foresight - Workshop Slides for SSE-O

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