A Brief Demography of California Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California [email protected]...
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A Brief Demography of California Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California [email protected] November 30, 2010
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Transcript of A Brief Demography of California Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California [email protected]...
A Brief Demography of California
Hans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of
November 30, 2010
California Has a Large and Growing Population
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Population (in thousands) 1900-2009
Source: US Census Bureau, California Department of Finance
Comparisons of Population Change1950=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
United States
Comparisons of Population Change1950=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mexico
United States
Comparisons of Population Change1950=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mexico
California
United States
California Population by Race/Ethnicity1970-2009
1970 1980 1990 2000 20090%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
White Hispanic Asian/Other African American Mulitracial
42%
13%12%
37%
2%6%
Source: United States Census Bureau, decennial censuses and American Community Survey
78%
Percent Foreign Born 1880-2006
37.5
33.9
30.3
22.6 22.920.9
18.5
13.2
108.5 8.8
15.1
21.7
25.927.2
14.413.2
15.8
13.314.7
13.211.6
8.86.9
5.4 4.76.2
7.9
11.212.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2006
California
United States
Latin America is the Leading Source of Immigrants
Latin America 5,319,000 (55%)
Asia 3,264,000 (34%)
Europe 685,000 ( 7%)
Canada 138,000
Africa 136,000
Oceania 68,000
Source: 2005 American Community Survey
Immigrants Come to California from Dozens of Countries
MEXICO PHILIPPINES CHINA VIETNAM EL SALVADOR
KOREA INDIA GUATEMALA TAIWAN IRAN
CANADA JAPAN HONG KONG GERMANY U.KINGDOM
NICARAGUA PERU LAOS RUSSIA THAILAND
ARMENIA UKRAINE CAMBODIA HONDURAS INDONESIA
CUBA FRANCE COLOMBIA ISRAEL ITALY
PAKISTAN EGYPT LEBANON PORTUGAL ARGENTINA
BRAZIL ROMANIA IRAQ POLANDNETHERLANDS
BURMA IRELAND ECUADOR CHILE SYRIA
NIGERIA AFGHANISTAN AUSTRALIA ETHIOPIA PANAMA
SOUTH AFRICA BELIZE HUNGARY TURKEY SPAIN
YUGOSLAVIA GREECE COSTA RICA JAMAICABANGLADESH
SWEDEN BELARUS JORDAN
Source: 2005 American Community Survey
Latinos will become the single largest ethnic group
Source: California Department of Finance
California Population by Age, 2009
0-45-910-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Source: 2009 American Community Survey
California’s Population is Unevenly Distributed
Population Density by Census Tract, 2000
Regional Population Distribution:Inland Areas Increasing Share
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Upper Sacramento ValleySierra FoothillsMountainsSac MetroSan Joaquin ValleyInland EmpireNorth CoastSan DiegoCentral CoastSouth CoastBay Area
Sources of demographic data Decennial censuses Population estimates and projections Survey data Administrative data and other sources
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Census basics Why take a census?
– Apportion the House of Representatives– Determine political districts– Disburse funds for programs (more than
$400 billion in federal funds every year)– Develop a portrait of our nation
The 2010 Census:– Goal: Count everyone once, only once,
and in the right place– Questionnaire: Among the shortest in
history (10 questions for the first person, 7 for all others)
20
21
Census content:2000 Census versus 2010 Census
2000 Census 2010 Census 2000 Census 2010 CensusFor each resident For each household
22
Census content:2000 Census versus 2010 Census
2000 Census 2010 Census 2000 Census 2010 CensusGenderAge Number of residentsHispanic origin TenureRace Type of housing unitRelationship to householder AcerageMarital status Mortgage amountBirthplace Mortgage paymentAncestry Property taxCitizenship Other owner costsYear of immigration RentYear naturalized Utility costsLanguage spoken Government subsidyAbility to speak English House valueEducational attainment Age of houseSchool attendance Characteristics of housing unitType of school PhoneEmployment status Type of heatingOccupation VehiclesIndustryHours and weeks workedIncome by sourceMigrationDisabilityVeteran statusLocation of workplaceCommuting
For each resident For each household
23
Census content:2000 Census versus 2010 Census
2000 Census 2010 Census 2000 Census 2010 CensusGender GenderAge Age Number of residents Number of residentsHispanic origin Hispanic origin Tenure TenureRace Race Type of housing unitRelationship to householder Relationship to householder AcerageMarital status Mortgage amountBirthplace Mortgage paymentAncestry Property taxCitizenship Other owner costsYear of immigration RentYear naturalized Utility costsLanguage spoken Government subsidyAbility to speak English House valueEducational attainment Age of houseSchool attendance Characteristics of housing unitType of school PhoneEmployment status Type of heatingOccupation VehiclesIndustryHours and weeks workedIncome by sourceMigrationDisabilityVeteran statusLocation of workplaceCommuting
For each resident For each household
Census Terminology: Identity
RaceRace is a self-identification data item in which respondents choose the race or races with which they most closely identify.
Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish originOrigin can be viewed as the heritage, nationality group, lineage, or country of birth of the person or the person's parents or ancestors before their arrival in the United States. People who identify their origin as Spanish, Hispanic, or Latino may be of any race.
.
Sources of demographic data Decennial censuses Population estimates and
projections Survey data Administrative data and other sources
28
Population estimates and projections
Estimates are historical population figures
Projections are future population figures Produced by the US Census Bureau and
the California Department of Finance Estimates are based on decennial
census counts updated with recent administrative data
Projections are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality, and migration rates
29
Type of estimates data available
30
Census Bureau Dept. of FinancePopulation totals State X X Counties X X Cities (total population only) X XComponents of change Births X X Deaths X X Domestic migration X X International migration X XNumber and type of housing units XPopulation characteristics Age X X Gender X X Ethnicity X X
Recent estimates diverge
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
DOFCensus Bureau
31
Total Population (in thousands)
1.5 million
Sources of demographic data Decennial censuses Official population estimates and
projections Survey data Administrative data and other sources
32
Two primary surveys of the U.S. population
Both surveys conducted by the Census Bureau
Current Population Survey– Monthly survey– Focus on labor market
American Community Survey (ACS)
33
What is the ACS? Monthly survey conducted by the Census Bureau
Annually samples about 3 million households
Items covered are similar to those of the long-form questionnaire of the 2000 decennial census
Replaces the 2010 long-form of the census
Topics Covered Demographic characteristics Income and employment Transportation Education Origins and languages Migration Disability and caregivers Housing: Physical characteristics Housing: Financial characteristics
Advantages of the ACS Large sample relative to the Current Population Survey
– 3 million versus 60,000 households Timely data relative to the decennial census Topical coverage nearly identical to the census long-form Single year data not reliable for small areas
Limitations of the ACS Not a count of the population Small sample relative to the decennial census
– Census long-form went to one in six households– ACS goes to one in forty
A moving average rather than a point in time Estimates for census tracts and block groups will be based on five year periods
Sources of demographic data Decennial censuses Official population estimates and
projections Survey data Administrative data and other
sources
39
Administrative and other sources of demographic and housing data California Statewide Database (UC
Berkeley)– Voter registration– Election outcomes
California Department of Education– School demographics– School test scores
California Employment Development Department– Unemployment rates– Occupations
Private sources 40
A Brief Demography of California
Hans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of
November 30, 2010
42
Notes on the use of these slides
These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact:
Hans Johnson: 415-291-4460, [email protected]
Thank you for your interest in this work.
