9/9 FRI 12:30 | Keynote: Ed T. McMahon
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Transcript of 9/9 FRI 12:30 | Keynote: Ed T. McMahon
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APA Florida
© Ed McMahonUrban Land InstituteSeptember 9, 2011
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ULI Mission
The mission of the Urban Land Institute is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in
creating and sustaining thriving communities world wide
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“If you’re not changing business as usual, you’re failing.” -- Brent Toderian, Planning Director, Vancouver, B.C
What is Sustainable Development and why is it vital?
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“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs.”
Source: United Nations, Bruntland Commission Report
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It is about our children
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It’s about balance
“Conservation is a state of harmony between man and nature.”
Aldo Leopold
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Sustainability Goals
• Healthy Environment
• Vigorous Economy
• Vibrant Community
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Sustainability in Action
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Shades of Green• Parsley Green • Grass Green
• Tree Green • Full Spectrum Green
Parsley Green Grass Green
Tree Green Full Spectrum Green
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Parsley Green
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Tree Green
• Green building• Sustainable materials• Energy efficiency• Waste management• Indoor air quality• The vertical dimension
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Tools and Policy OverviewImplementing Sustainable Development in Your Community
© 2008Test
7748
LEED CertifiedProjects
31,975+LEED Registered Projects
LEED Projects in USA total 31,000+ in 2010
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“$12 Billion was spent on Green Buildings in 2008. This
is expected to grow to $60 Billion by 2013.”
McGraw-Hill ConstructionSmart Market Trends Report, 2008
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Green Retrofits• 98% of building stock is
existing buildings• 75% of commercial
buildings are more than 20 years old
• There is a $400 billion market for energy efficiency rehabs in coming years
• Empire State Building is retrofitting to reduce energy use by 40% - with a 3 year payback
Empire State Building , New York
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Will the Recession Effect Green?• Despite the recession, a significant number of green
projects are under construction, and even larger backlog of green buildings await certification, ensuring that the near term supply of green buildings will continue to increase.
• Various market forces, regulatory incentives & mandates will continue to pressure real estate owners & managers to enhance the sustainability of their portfolios. Focus will shift to affordable repositioning & more efficient property operations.
• Green buildings will continue to outperform conventional buildings due to their relative scarcity relative to demand.
• The recession will slow, but not fundamentally alter, the market shift to sustainable real estate.
Source: RREEF Research, San Francisco, CA., 2009
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Source: Charles Lockwood
Harvard Business Journal
“As green buildings become more common, conventional
buildings will rapidly lose value and become obsolete.”
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Grass Green
• Sustainable location• Good site planning• Design in harmony
with nature• Master planning• The horizontal
dimension
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• “Green buildings in wrong location are not truly green. Smart growth that does not take advantage of green building is not smart.” – Jonathan Rose
• “Where you build is just as important as what you build.” - Peter Calthrope
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Sustainable Development effects Land Development not just buildings
Street is 40 feet wide
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Street is 24 feet wide
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Good Site Planning & Street Design
• Less pavement means more affordable housing
• Less pavement is better for the environment
• Narrower streets are safer for children
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Full Spectrum Green
• Affordable housing• Placemaking• Community building• Green lifestyles• Balances community,
economy & environment
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Sustainability is about more than technology
• At its most basic, “sustainable” means enduring. Sustainable communities are places of enduring value.
• Sustainability is about affordability, walkability, place-making, community building.
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Doug Kelbaugh, Dean, University of Michigan, School of Architecture
“If a building, a landscape or a city is not beautiful, it will not be loved, if it is not loved, it won’t be maintained and
improved. In short , it won’t be sustained.”
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Planning?
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Secrets of Successful Communities• Develop a vision for the future• Inventory local assets and resources• Build plans around the enhancement of assets• Use education, incentives, partnerships and
voluntary initiatives – not just regulation• Pick and choose among development proposals• Cooperate with neighbors for mutual benefit• Protect community character as well as ecology and
economics• Have strong leaders & committed citizens
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Like it or not, more change is coming.
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Things You Can’t Control
• Demographic changes• Technology • National and global economy• Consumer attitudes & market trends• Energy prices• Climate change and extreme weather
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There two kinds of change:
• Planned change, and
• Unplanned change
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How will the Crash Reshape America?
• How we live, work, shop and get around will change.
• Communities that embrace the future will prosper. Those that do not will decline.
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What’s the future? Is it this?
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Or, is it this?
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The Old Paradigm
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The future belongs to main streets, town centers and mixed use
development
Strip retail is retail for the last century
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Here is Why:• We’re overbuilt on the strip• Retail is rediscovering the city• The suburbs are being redesigned• Traffic congestion, fuel prices and auto-oriented
(i.e. ugly design) are undermining the strip• Consumers favor walkability and places with
character• E-commerce means fewer and smaller stores• The economy is restructuring the retail
landscape
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We’re Overbuilt on the Strip
• Ten fold increase in retail space from 1960-2000.
• From 4 to 38 square feet per person.
• US has more than double the retail space per person as Europe.
• There is now more than 1billion square feet of vacant retail space (mostly in empty big box stores)
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Retail space grew faster than retail sales
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Department Store vs. Big Box• Downtown• Multi-story• Accessible by Transit• Footprint – about 1 acre
• Outside of town• Single story• Accessible by car• Footprint –about 12 acres
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Development Pattern Reinforced Driving
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Suburbs Are Being Redesigned
• “The largest retail trend of the next generation will be the conversion of dead or dying strip commercial centers in the suburbs into walkable urban places.”
• Source: Chris Leinberger, The Brookings Institution
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Historic Rockville, MD
• Mostly demolished in 1970
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Rockville Mall – Rockville, MD
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Rockville, MD – Town Center
Rockville, MD Town Center
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The Opportunity
The New Promised Land?
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Tear Up Parking Lot, Rebuild Paradise
• Large, flat, well drained site• Major infrastructure in place• 4 lane highway frontage, transit ready• Saves rural land• Committed to mixed use• Can turn NIMBY’s into YIMBY’s• 2.8 million acres of greyfields will be
available in next 15 years
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We Are Going From This:
Spread OutSingle UseDrivable Only
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To This!
CompactMixed-UseWalkable
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Tyson’s Corner Today
Americas 1st edge city – Nation’s 10th largest CBD – 3 rush hours daily
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Tysons Corner - Tomorrow
• Tysons Corner, VA just received APA’s 2011 Daniel Burnham Award for a adopting a visionary Comprehensive Plan that will transform Tysons from America’s first edge City into a walkable, mixed use downtown served by 4 rail transit stations.
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Retail is Rediscovering the City
King Street, Charleston, South Carolina
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New Life for Old Buildings
• In December 2010, Target announced that it would renovate and occupy 125,000 Square feet in the landmark Carson Pirie Scott building in Chicago.
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The Changing Shape & Location of Big Box Stores
A growing number of big box stores are locating downtown, in multistory buildings which means they use less land, fit better with the community and are accessible by foot or on transit.
Typical Target Store
Multi-story Target store
Target, Washington, DC
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Target – Minneapolis, MN
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Target – Stamford, CT
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Wal-Mart, Washington, DC
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Home Depot - NYC
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Home Depot - Vancouver
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Traffic Congestion, Gas Prices and Design Favor Main Streets
Where would you rather shop today?
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Characteristics of the Strip
• A reliance on cars to go everywhere.
• Traffic congestion• Lots of big signs, traffic lights
and driveways• Streetscape dominated by
parking lots• Little or no landscaping• Cheap, cookie-cutter
buildings• Nothing unique – every
town’s strip looks the same.Typical Strip – Ugly and Congested
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The Nature of Commercial Strips
“The distinguishing characteristic of commercials strips is there undisguised ugliness, although traffic congestion now runs a close second.”
Source: Ten Principles for Reshaping the Strip, ULI
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Characteristics of Downtown• Walkable and pedestrian
friendly• Streetscape dominated
by buildings• Easy to get around
because of street grid• Park once environment• Beautiful, one of a kind
structures• Every downtown looks
different
Typical Downtown – Walkable and Unique
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What does the future look like?
Barnes & Noble, Rockville Pike, MD Barnes and Noble, Bethesda, MD
Rockville Pike Downtown Bethesda
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“People stay longer,spend more moneyand come back more often to places that attract their affection.”
Source: Urban Design and the Bottom Line, ULI, 2009
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What will High Energy Prices Mean for the Future?
• In 1970 the US imported 24% of its oil from foreign providers
• In 1990 the US imported 42% of its oil
• In 2008 the US imported 70% of its oil
• The cost of imported oil reached over $600 billion per year in 2008
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Do you think thelong term trendfor energy pricesis to go up or down?
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“Going forward the distance between where we live and work will matter more and attractive mixed use places (in
both cities and suburbs) that offer more convenient lifestyles will benefit.”
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The Economy is Restructuring Retail
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The Old Formats
• Strip shopping centers• Enclosed malls• Power centers
• Distinct Property types and homogenous tenant lineups made for tidy divisions within the shopping center industry.
• Today this is changing!
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Town Centers vs. Strip Shopping Centers
“The development of new suburban town centers is one of the hottest real estate trends in the United States today, as they consistently surpass standard suburban real estate products in:
Residential prices and apartment rents Retail sales and sales tax revenues Hotel room and occupancy rates, On-site and adjacent property values Office and retail lease rates.”
- Urban Land Magazine
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Technology is Changing Retail
More of these, means Less of these.
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E - Commerce Means Fewer and Smaller Stores
• The nation’s healthiest retailer is Amazon• E - commerce helps small businesses
level the playing field.• E-commerce means the downsizing or
disappearance of many chain stores• Staples – the pioneer of the superstore
concept is now the 2nd largest online retailer.
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Demographics is changing where we live and shop.
Mississippi Ave, Portland, OR Barracks Row, Washington, DC
Manayunk, Philadelphia, PA Capitol Hill, Seattle, WA
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Demographic Shifts
• Baby Boomers and Retirees – 80 million• Immigrants – 40 million• Millennials (18 to 30 year olds) – 80 million• Women (single-parent households) - 30
million• 75 % of American households do not have
school age children
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Reasons for Market Demand for Walkable, Mixed Use Neighborhoods
• Rising costs for gasoline & transportation• Baby boomers becoming empty nesters• Boredom with conventional development• Demand greatly exceeds supply• Young people like urban lifestyles (short
commutes, nightlife, etc.)
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Americans favor walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods
• 77% want neighborhoods with abundant sidewalks and other pedestrian facilities.
• 88% placed more value on quality of neighborhood than the size of the house.
• 59% would choose a smaller house, if it meant less driving.
• 73% of young adults (35 or younger) favor neighborhoods with a mix of house and businesses over areas with housing only.
• Source: National Association of Realtors Survey, February, 2011
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Walkable Development is a Low Cost Climate Change Strategy
• Compact development can cut driving by 20 % to 40% percent.
• We already have the technology to build walkable communities.
• Pursuing compact development involves shifting investments that have to be built anyway.
• Walkable communities can save people money and improve public health.
Source: Growing Cooler: Evidence on Urban Development & Climate Change,Urban Land Institute, October, 2007
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Walkable Communities• Workers in Bethesda, MD
walk or use transit for 74% of their non-commute trips (errands, lunch, shopping, etc)
• Workers in Germantown, MD (an auto oriented suburb) use the car for 90 % of their non-commute trips.
• Source: US Department of Transportation
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Compact Development vs. Sprawl
Sprawl
• Low densities• Single uses• Strip development• Poorly connected streets• Auto-oriented design
Compact development• Medium to high densities• Mixed uses• Centered development• Interconnected streets• Pedestrian & transit
friendly design
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We Can Go From This
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To This
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Shopping Mall – Before
Boca Mall – Boca Raton, Florida
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Shopping Mall - After
Mizner Place, Boca Raton, Florida
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But will Americans accept the higher densities that come with
more compact, mixed use Development?
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Americans Don’t Like 2 Things
• Too Much Sprawl• Too Much Density
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Overcoming Opposition to Density
• High Quality Design• Access to Green Space• Amenities• More choices in ways to get around• High Density only in clearly defined areas
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Density Requires Good Design & Compensating Amenity
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Density Comparisons
Charleston, SC – 8.3 units per acreSun City, AZ – 5.0 units per acre
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Density Comparisons
Las Vegas, 37.4 Units per acre New Orleans, 38.9 units per acre
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Higher-Density Can Be Attractive & Valuable
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Florida Neighborhoods
City Place, West Palm Beach Riverside, Jacksonville
Old Northeast, St Petersburg
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As we densify our communities we must simultaneously green our
communities
Minneapolis Park System Metro St. Louis Greenway Plan
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How Do We Green A Community?Street Trees Green Parking Lots
Green Roofs Greenways
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How Do You Green A City?Green Sound Walls Community Gardens
Rain Gardens Urban Agriculture
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Community Parks
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Where is the most valuable land in New York ?
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How will the Crash Reshape America?
• How we live, work, shop and get around will change.
• Communities that embrace the future will prosper. Those that do not will decline.
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Horatio Nelson Jackson - 1903
• 8000 cars• No Gas Stations• No Parking lots• No highway departments• No paved roads• Horses were the primary
mode of travel
1st cross country trip by auto
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Twenty Years later - 1923
• 10 million cars• 100,000 miles of
paved roads• Every state had a
highway department• Gas stations and
parking lots transform cities
• Horses a thing of the past
Traffic Jam , New York City - 1923