97 pages in print

3,800 pages in the CD

Table of Contents

• Executive summary• Chapter 1 Fifteen Global Challenges• Chapter 2 Global SOFI• Chapter 3 National SOFIs• Chapter 4 Future Ethical Issues• Chapter 5 Nanotech – Preventing downsides• Chapter 6 Environmental Security• Chapter 7 Sustainable Development Index• CD-ROM of 3,800 Pages

2005 SOF’s CD Section

Executive Summary (11 pages)1. Global Challenges (790 pages)2. State of the Future Index Section (Global SOFI (220); National SOFIs (33) Global

Challenges Assessment (94))3. Future Ethical Issues (80 pages)4. Global Scenarios (Normative to the Year 2050 (18); Exploratory (40); Very Long-Range

Scenarios—1,000 years (23); Counterterrorism (40); S&T 2025 Global Scenarios (19); Middle East Peace Scenarios (90)

5. Science and Technology (Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400); Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21)

6. Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)7. World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development (Measuring SD (59); Quality and

Sustainability of Life Indicators (9); Partnership for SD (48)9. Environmental Security (510 pages) (Emerging ES Issues; ES: Emerging International

Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations; UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions; Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives; ES and Potential Military Requirements)

10. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)

Appendices

Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants (affiliation/country)Appendix B: State of the Future Index SectionAppendix C: Global EthicsAppendix D: Global ScenariosAppendix E: Science and TechnologyAppendix F: Global Goals for The Year 2050Appendix G: World Leaders on Global ChallengesAppendix H: Measuring & Promoting Sustainable Development Appendix I: Environmental Security StudiesAppendix J: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of

Futures Research in DecisionmakingAppendix K: Annotated Bibliography of About 600 Scenario SetsAppendix L: Publications of the Millennium ProjectAcronyms and Abbreviations

Highlights• Organized crime is more than twice that of all military

budgets worldwide• Internet connects 1 billion people - 15% of the World• 60% of the environmental life support system is gone or

unsustainable• 24-7 ubiquitous computing accelerates decisionmaking• IQ as competitive advantage in the knowledge economy• Indo/China’s hightech/low wage forces rest of Third World

to re-think trade-lead growth strategies• 500 environmental agreement; faster implications – Chart

on Page 87: rising global environmental consciousness• Nanotech health/environmental impacts rapidly being

assessed.

The Future will be more than most people think• The rate of change over the last 25 years

ago, will appear slow compared to the next 15 years.

• Compare last 25 years – no PCs, WWW, mobile phones, AIDS, Cold War – with next: NIBCtechs, social self-organization, global brain, conscious-technology

• Failure of imagination, losing opportunities

Examples of some future ethical issues

• Do we have a right to clone ourselves?• Do parents have the right to create genetically altered

“designer babies”?• Should there be two standards: one for the

technologically altered and another for the “naturals?”

Values underlying such issues may change over time

• A Delphi panel of over 400 selected by the 25 Nodes of the Millennium Project for their scholarship and/or interest in future ethical issues.

• The panel rated which values were likely to increase and decrease around the world over the next 50 years/

Values likely to decrease over the next 50 years:• Life is a divine unalterable gift.

• Economic progress is the most reliable path to human happiness.

• The family in all its forms is the foundation of social values.

• Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other living and non-living things.

Values likely to increaseover the next 50 years: • Harmony with nature is more important than economic

progress.• Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be

considered in any policy.• The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and

fundamental for a healthy society.• World interests should prevail over nation-state interests.• Human space migration is part of human evolution.• Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request

rights should be given these rights and be treated with the same respect as humans

Millennium Project Global Challenges Assessment

182 Developments

180 Developments

1997-98

1996-97 15 Issues with

131 Actions

&

15 Opportunitieswith

213 Actions

Distilled Into1998-99 15 Challenges

with 213 Actions

1999-2005Global Challenges General description Regional views Actions Indicators

Global State of the Future Index (SOFI)National SOFIs ( 8 countries of the Americas)

2000-2005

15 Global Challenges

1. Sustainable Development

2. Water

3. Population and Resources

4. Democratization

5. Global, Long-Term Policymaking

6. Globalization of Information Technology

7. Rich-Poor Gap

8. Changing disease threats

9. Decision-Making Capacities

10. Peace & Conflict

11. Improving Women’s Status

12. Transnational Crime

13. Energy Demands

14. Science & Technology

15. Global Ethics

Why did the SOFI grow?• GDP per capita grew

• Calories per capita increased

• Life expectancy grew

• Literacy grew

• Infant Mortality dropped

• Access to Fresh Water improved

• Access to Health Care improved

• School Enrollment Improved

What held the SOFI back?• Industrial CO2 emissions grew

• Unemployment moved increased

• Forest Lands dropped

• Rich Poor Gap grew

• AIDs Deaths grew

• Developing Country Debt increased

• Terrorist Attacks

SOFI Analysis

Environmental security is environmental viability for life support… with three sub-elements:

• Preventing or repairing military damage to the environment

• Preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts

• Protecting the environment due to the moral value of the environment itself

UN & EU is taking initiativesin environmental management

• UN Reform Report Stresses Environmental Issues• UN Report Recommends Basis for Global Security Consensus• UN to Help Tackle Iraq Pollution• UN Conference On Small Island States and Climate Change• UN Conference ‘Water for Food and Ecosystems’• Additional Environmental Security Role for the UN Security Council• EU Environment Ministers Propose post-Kyoto Protocol Climate Policies• EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme active on January 1, 2005• EU to Ban the use of Cadmium in Batteries• UK Cooperation with India and Others on the Environment and Sust. Dev.• Conference on Environment, Security and Sustainable Development in The

Hague• European Parliament Resolution to Protect Whales From Sonar• OECD Environment Ministers Call for more Ambitious Policies• Kyoto Protocol came into force in February 2005• Clean Air for Europe Initiative to Limit Air Pollution• Stockholm Convention on POPs to be Expanded

Mini NanotechnologyTwo-Round Delphi Study

• What are potential military uses and their possible health hazards and environmental impacts? between now and 2010 and between 2010 and 2025?

• What do we have to know to reduce or prevent these potential problems?

• What are general research priorities to produce the relevant knowledge to improve future prospects with Nanotech?

... is a new kind of think tank

The Millennium Project

It is Global... Geographically

Institutionally

Disciplinarily

Research focus

UN Organizations

NGOs

Universities

GovernmentsCorporations

Millennium Project

… May become a TransInstitution

Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in:

Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

Cyber

Washington, DC

Buenos Aires

Cairo

LondonPrague

Moscow

Rome

Madurai

TokyoBeijing

Tehran

Sao Paulo

Caracas

Helsinki

Paris

New Delhi

Calgary

Silicon Valley

Berlin

Kuwait

PretoriaSidney

Mexico City

Seoul

Millennium Project Nodes Memorandum of Understands with:

Government Institutions    Russian Academy of Natural Sciences    Chinese Academy of Natural Sciences    Chinese Academy of Social Sciences    Slovakian Academy of Sciences

Private Companies in    Tokyo (aerospace)    Berlin (futures planning)    Buenos Aires (futures planning)    Silicon Valley (USA) (venture capital)    New Delhi (futures, strategy planning)

Universities in    Prague    London    Rome    Sao Paulo    Cairo    Helsinki    Tehran    Kodaikanal (India)

NGOs in    Venezuela (WFS chapter)    Mexico (new NGO as Node)    Kuwait (non-profit research institute) Korea (futures organization)    Paris (futurist network)

• United Nations University (UNU) is the principal academic research organ of the UN, headquartered in Tokyo.

• The American Council for the UNU (AC/UNU) created in 1975 as U.S. NGO as the point of contact between Americans and the UNU.

• The Millennium Project operates under the auspices of the AC/UNU.

Relationship of the UNU, AC/UNU,and the Millennium Project

Previous Sponsors over past 10 years

Corporations• Applied Materials • Deloitte & Touche LLP• Ford Motor Company• General Motors• Hughes Space and Communications• Monsanto Company• Motorola Corporation• Pioneer Hi-Bred International• Shell International

Foundations• Alan F. Kay & Hazel Henderson

Foundation for Social Innovation• Amana-Kay • Foundation for Social Innovation• Foundation for the Future

Government Organizations• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute

• U.S. Department of Energy• Woodrow Wilson International Center

for Scholars• Kuwait Oil Company

UN Organizations• UNDP• UNESCO • United Nations University

• Global Energy Scenarios

• Futures Research Methodology - V 3.0

• Monthly reports of international environmental security issues

• Futures Dictionary/Encyclopedia

• Up-dating Annotated Scenario Bibliography

• Middle East Peace Scenarios dissemination and discussions

• National State of the Future Indexes (SOFIs)

• Updating & Improving Global Challenges and publish 2006 SOF

• Women Issues Organizations and their Research

• Experiments with Collaborative Software

Current Activities

Futures Research Methodology V2.0

1. Introduction & Overview 15. Simulation and Games 2. Environmental Scanning 16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Int. 3. Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting 4. Futures Wheel 18. S&T Road Mapping 5. Trend Impact Analysis 19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) 6. Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight 7. Structural Analysis 21. Agent Modeling 8. Systems Perspectives 22. SOFI 9. Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software10. Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple Perspective Concept11. Technological Sequence Analysis 25. Tool Box for Scenario

Planning12. Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis 26. Causal Layered Analysis 13. Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios 27. Integration, Comparisons,

and 14. Participatory Methods Frontiers of Futures Research Methods

The Millennium Project

WWW.STATEOFTHEFUTURE.ORG

Jglenn@igc.org