9-1 ELC 347 project management Day 22. Agenda Integrative Project Part 5 Feedback Posted Part 6...
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9-1
ELC 347 project management
Day 22
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Agenda• Integrative Project
– Part 5 Feedback Posted– Part 6 (page 378) Due Dec 9– Completed project plan and presentation due December 13 @ 1 PM– Any of the first five sections can be resubmitted for rescoring prior to finals week.
The recorded score will the average of the original score and the score on the resubmitted section. Please notify me via email which sections you will be resubmitting.
• Assignment 7 corrected – 13 A’s, 1 B and one that I cannot read (Project 2010 files)
• Assignment 8 (Last One) Posted – Due Dec 6 @ 12:35 PM
• Exam 2 Graded– 2 A’s, 4 B’s, 9 C’s– Threw out two faulty questions
• Course Evaluations • Discussion on Critical Chain Project Scheduling
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Schedule for rest of semester• Today
– Chap 11 • Dec 2
– Chap 12– More on MS Project
• Dec 6– Group Work – Assignment 8 due
• Dec 9– Chap 13 & 14– IP Part 6 due
• Dec 13 @ 1 PM– Quiz 3
• Chaps 11 - 15
– IP Project’s due
6-3 © 2007 Prentice-Hall, Inc
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Critical Chain Project Scheduling
Chapter 11
© 2007 Pearson Education
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Theory of Constraints & Critical Chain Project Scheduling
A constraint limits system output.The Goal – Goldratt
TOC Methodology1. Identify the constraint2. Exploit the constraint3. Subordinate the system4. Elevate the constraint5. Repeat the process
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VariationCommon CauseInherent in the system
Special CauseDue to a special circumstance
Managers should• Understand the difference between the two• Not adjust the process if variation is common cause• Not include special cause variation in risk
simulation• Not aggregate discrete project risks
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Dropping a marble
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Dr J Edwards Deming
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CCPM and the Causes of Project Delay
How safety is added to project activities1. Individual activities overestimated2. Project manager safety margin3. Anticipating expected cuts from management
time
25%
50%
80%90%
Gaussian Distribution
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Wasting Extra Safety Margin
1. The Student Syndromea. Immediate deadlinesb. Padded estimatesc. High demand
2. Failure to pass along positive variationa. Other tasksb. Overestimation penaltyc. Perfectionism
3. Multitasking4. Path Merging
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Critical Chain Solutions
Central Limit Theorem
V∑ = n * V , SD2 = n * V, SD = n1/2 * V1/2
Standard deviation of the sum is less than the sum of the standard deviations!
Aggregating risk leads to reduced risk
n
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Activity durations estimated at 50% level
Buffer reapplied at project level– Goldratt rule of thumb (50%)– Newbold formula (2σ)
Feeder buffers for non-critical paths
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CCPM
Original 50% ProbabilityActivity Duration Duration
A 10 5
B 6 2
C 14 7
D 2 1
E 8 3
F 12 6
Total 52 24
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New estimate = 24 + (52-24)/2 = 38
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CCPM Changes
Due dates & milestones eliminated Realistic estimates – 50% level not 90%
“No blame” culture
Subcontractor deliveries & work scheduled ES Non critical activities scheduled LS Factor the effects of resource contention Critical chain usually not the critical path Solve resource conflicts with minimal disruption
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Critical Chain Solutions
Bob
Feeder Buffer
Feeder Buffer
Feeder Buffer
ProjectBufferBob
Bob
Buffers protect constraints and
prevent delays
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11-23Joe.mpp
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Critical Chain Project Portfolios
Drum – system-wide constraint that sets the beat for the firm’s throughput
• Drum – person, department, policy, resource• Capacity constraint buffer – safety margin
between projects
• Drum buffer – extra safety before the constraint
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Applying CCPM to Project Portfolios
1. Identify the drum2. Exploit the drum
a. Prepare a schedule for each projectb. Determine priority for the drumc. Create the drum schedule
3. Subordinate the project schedules (next slide)4. Elevate the capacity of the drum5. Go back to step 2
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Subordinating Project Schedules
• Schedule projects based on drum
• Designate critical chain
• Insert capacity constraint buffers
• Resolve any conflicts
• Insert drum buffers so the constraint is not starved
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CCPM Critiques
No milestones used
Not significantly different from PERT
Unproven at the portfolio level
Anecdotal support only
Incomplete solution
Overestimation of activity duration padding Cultural changes unattainable