8th EGIG Report
Transcript of 8th EGIG Report
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1
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 7
2 EGIG database .................................................................................................................9
2.1 Definition................................................................................................................................... 9
2.2 Objective ................................................................................................................................... 9
2.3 Criteria...................................................................................................................................... 9
2.4 Contents..................................................................................................................................... 9
2.5 The use of EGIG Data............................................................................................................ 10
3 Analyses and results ....................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Definitions ............................................................................................................................... 12
3.2 Trends of the European gas transmission system ............................................................... 12 3.2.1 Total length........................................ ............................................................ .................................. 13 3.2.2 Exposure ...................................................... ........................................................... ......................... 17
3.3 Failure frequencies analyses.................................................................................................. 18 3.3.1 Number of incidents ........................................................ ........................................................... ..... 18 3.3.2 Primary failure frequencies.................................................................. ............................................ 20 3.3.3 Secondary failure frequencies.............................................................. ............................................ 25
3.3.3.1 Relation between external interference, size of leak and design parameter ............................. 26 3.3.3.2 Relation between corrosion, size of leak and design parameter ............................................... 29 3.3.3.3 Relation between construction defect, size of leak and design parameter................................ 33 3.3.3.4 Relation between hot tap made by error, size of leak and design parameter............................ 34 3.3.3.5 Ground movement.................................................... ........................................................... ..... 35 3.3.3.6 Other and unknown ............................................................ ...................................................... 37
3.4 Other analysis ......................................................................................................................... 38 3.4.1 Ageing ......................................................... ........................................................... ......................... 38 3.4.2 Detection of incidents ...................................................... ........................................................... ..... 39 3.4.3 Ignition probability .......................................................... ........................................................... ..... 40 3.4.4 Injuries and fatalities ....................................................... ........................................................... ..... 40
4 Conclusions and facts .................................................................................................... 41
5 Reference ........................................................................................................................ 41
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1 INTRODUCTION
!( 8 8 $( $ $ 8 = $ $ 8 $ $ $ $# # $ # # $ * 8 $ $ 8
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8 * $( $$ 8 # $ $ !( *D #$ : 8$( $ $ : / $ : * * 8 $( # # $ 8 8 $ 8 # 8
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3 ANALYSES AND RESULTS
3.1 Definitions
!( *D #$ : 8 $ $ $ $ # $ $ $ $( 8 $ # $ $( $$ / # # 8 $( $( $ 8 /( #( $( $
!( $ $ $ # * $( # # $ 8 # $ #( 8 8 = #$ * * $
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3.2 Trends of the European gas transmission system
!( ( : 8 $ $( $ 8 $( $ $ $ $( / $( : $ 8 $( * $ /( #( $ $ $ *
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3.2.1 Total length
!( $ $ $( 8 $( $ $ # $ $# 5447 $( $( / = $ 356 736 $ 39> 533 5434$( ( / * / $ # $( $ 9 $ # * $( $ $( $
/$( 8 $( $ $(!( : $ 8 $( $ $ $( 8 $( $ ( / : # $
$ $# 8 5 $ 1
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
Year [-]
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
L e n g t h
[ k m
]
0 # *
3 ( / # $( $( 8 $( $ $/( #( ( 8 # $ $ #( $( 367> 3663 3661 5449 5447 !( #(# $ / * D $( 8 #$ $( / # : * $ >4@ 8
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2 0 0 9
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
Year [-]
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000140,000
L e n g
t h [ k m
]
Unknowndiameter < 5''5" diameter < 11"
11" diameter < 17"17" diameter < 23"23" diameter < 29"
29" diameter < 35"35" diameter < 41"41" diameter < 47"
diameter 47"
0 & ' )
5 $ $ $( $ $( >JJ K L 33JJ $( 33JJ K L 37JJ # $ $( $#
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
Year [-]
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
L e n g t
h [ k m
]
Unknown
year < 1954
1954 year 1963
1964 year 1973
1974 year 1983
1984 year 1993
1994 year 2003
year 2004
0 3 *
9 ( / $( $ / * $ $( 36?) 23679 $( $(8 # $ # * * : /( #( $( $ $ 8 $( $ $
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2 0 0 9
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
Year [-]
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
L e n g t
h [ k m
]
UnknownCoal tar
BitumenPolyethylene
EpoxyOther
0 % *
) ( / $( $ # $ * $ $( / $( $ ## $ / $( # # 8 $( $ 544) 8 $( $ / $(
/ # $ $ # * * :
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
Year [-]
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
L e n g t
h [ k m
]
Unknowncd < 80 cm
80 cm cd 100 cmcd > 100 cm
Under water
0 4 ( ' )
> ( / $( $ $ 8 $( / $( $( 8 # : $( 14 #!( $ *: $( $ $ # # $( 8 # : 8 $(
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$ $ $ 8 8 # $ $ $ 8 # !( # * 8 # 8$( $( / $( $( 8 # : $( 3 $
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
Year [-]
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
L e n g t
h [ k m
]
Unknownwt 5 mm
5 mm < wt 10 mm10 mm < wt 15 mm
15 mm < wt 20 mm20 mm < wt 25 mm
25 mm < wt 30 mmwt > 30 mm
0 ; . < '. )
? ( / $( $ $( $ # / $( # > $ 34 !( 8( / $ # / $( $ $ * $ 8 $( / $( # # # $
8 $( K > # /( #( ( # $ $ # 5443
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
Year [-]
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
L e n g
t h [ k m
]
UnknownGrade A
Grade BX42
X46X52
X56X60
X65X70
X80Other
0 =
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7 $ $ $( $ $( 8 $ $ < B>5B?4 ! $( $( $ $ ?5@ 8 $( $ $
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
Year [-]
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
L e n g t
h [ k m
]
Unknownp 15 bar
15 < p 25 bar25 < p 35 bar
35 < p 45 bar45 < p 55 bar
55 < p 65 bar65 < p 75 bar
p > 75 bar
0 > 1 ? ' )
1 ( / # 8 $( ( ( , + $ . !( $# $ $ $( $ ?> * * :
3.2.2 Exposure
6 ( / $( # 8 $( : $( # ( 9 3$( $( 8 $ * $ $
$ 2 H E I $( 367425434 $( $ $ $ / = $ 9 >>E
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2 0 0 4
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
Year [-]
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
E x p o s u r e
[ k m . y r ]
0 5 ( 1
3.3 Failure frequencies analyses
!( ( / $( $( # # $ 8 8 $ # $ $( #8 8 = # !( # # $ 8 $ $( $ < $( $ $ $ $( $
$ $( * 8 # $
3.3.1 Number of incidents
$( : $( $ /( #( # : $( 367425447 $ $ 8 3 379 # $ /#
$( $ $( 7? # $ / $ * $( * /( #( * $( $ $* 8 # $ $ 3 5)6 8 $( 367425434 34 ( / $( * 8 # $
33 $( > : : 8 $( # $ # !( 8 ( /$( ( * # $( > : : 8 $( # # $ #$ 8 #$/( $( ( * # $ $ 8 # # $
35 $( # $ : * 8 # $ #$
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2 0 0 9
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
Year [-]
10
20
30
40
50
60
N u m
b e r o f
i n c i
d e n
t s [ - ]
0 #$ "
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
Year
5
10
15
20
25
N u m
b e r o
f i n c
i d e n t s :
5 y e a r m o v
i n g a v e r a g e
External interferenceCorrosionConstruction defect / Material failure
Hot tap made by errorGround movementOther and unknown
0 ## " 4 * ( (
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2 0 0 4
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
Year [-]
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
N u m
b e r o f
i n c i
d e n
t s [ - ]
0 #& ( "
3.3.2 Primary failure frequencies
( 9 3 $( 8 8 = # $( $ 8 $( * 8# $ 35 / $( : * $( # $ $ $
6 $( $ $( * 8 # $ : $( $ $ $
!( ( # $( 8 8 = # 8 88 $ $( $ $367425434 $( # $ $( : $( $ 367425447 8
)4 94 54 34 $( 8 $( $ > 544?25434
!( 8 8 = # 8 $( : ! * 3 !( 6>@ # 8 # $ 88 $( 8 8 = # 8 $( : .. B 3 $( $ $ $ # $(
$ $( $ $( * 8 # $ 8 / . J / .. B 5
("
@6A*
1 @< B* A
*
/ *#$$$ < B*
3674 2 5447 7 $( $ 91 3379 9 3> 34 4 9753674 2 5434 1 $( $ )3 35)6 9 >> 34 4 9>33673 2 5434 )4 3555 9 >5 34 ? 4 9)73613 2 5434 94 1?4 9 43 34 4 51?3663 2 5434 54 )?4 5 5> 34 4 54)5443 2 5434 34 547 3 5) 34 4 3?7544? 2 5434 > 34? 4 ?>) 34 4 3?5
" # * /
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5434 $( 8 8 = # : $( $ / = $ 4 9> 3 444 E* : $ $( $ $( : 8 8 = # 4 9> : $( $ 367425434($ / $( $( 8 8 = # 8 4 97 $ $( 7$( 367425447
!( 8 8 = # : $( $ 8 : / 5434 = $ 4 3? 3 444 E!( 8 8 = # : $( $ 8 : $ ( 8 $( 8 8 = #
: $( $ ( / $( : 8 # : # $39 ( / $( : $ 8 $( 8 8 = # : $( $ $( $
8 :
39 $ $ $( $ 8 $( 8 8 = # $( 8 8 = #8 $( > : : !( 8 8 = # : $( $ # 8
4 17 3 444 E 3674 $ 4 9> 3 444 E 5434 !( : :8 8 = # : 8 : # * 8 #$ > 4 1? $ 4 3? 3 444 E
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
Year [-]
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
F a i
l u r e
f r e q u e n c y p e r
1 0 0 0 k m y r
Primary failure frequency: averagePrimary failure frequency: 5 year moving average
0 #3 * /
88 $ # ( : * $ 8 : ! * 5 3) # $ / $(
$( # $ 8 # $ $( $ $ $ 8 # $( # 8# $
$ * $H@I
$ $ 8 # )1 )$ #$ 8 #$ A , $ 8 3? 7
3? 3: $ 7 )
- $2$ * ) 1+$( / ? ?
" & " !
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Externalinterf.
Corrosion Constr.defect /
Mat. Failure
Hot tapmade by
error
Groundmovem.
Other / Unknown
Cause
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
P e r c e n t a g e
%
0 #% "
3> 3? : #$ : $( 8 8 = # 8 $( $$ $( 8 $( $ 8 : : : #
2 0 0 4
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 7 3
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
Year [-]
00.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
F a i l u r e
f r e q u e n c y p e r
1 0 0 0 k m y r
External interferenceCorrosionConstruction defect / Material failure
Hot tap made by errorGround movementOther and unknown
0 #4 * / ' * )
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2 0 0 4
1 9 7 4
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 9
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 3
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 7
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 4
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 5
1 9 7 5
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 6
2 0 0 3
2 0 1 0
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 7
1 9 9 4
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 8
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 6
1 9 7 6
1 9 8 3
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 7
Year [-]
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
5 y r m o v . a v g .
f a i l u r e
f r e q u e n c y p e r
1 0 0 0 k m y r
External interferenceCorrosionConstruction defect / Material failure
Hot tap made by errorGround movementOther and unknown
0 #; * / '46* ( ( )
3> $ $ $( # 8 8 = # : $( !( ( * $$ #( # : $ #( < / #$ # $ $ 2
#$ : # 8 : $ $ #$
8 $( # 8 $ $ 8 # # # $ # $ 8 8 = #
: $( 367425434 # $ 4 37 3 444 E /( $( >2 : :( : 88 $ 4 3 3 444 E # 3667 5449 $( >2 : :
8 $( $ $ 8 # # 8 4 34 $ 4 4? - / : $$ 8 # $( # 8 # $ * $ $( 88 # / $( # $ 8 $(
# # # # $ #$ 8 #$ A $ 8
: $ $( : $ 8 $ $ 8 # # $ *$ $( ($ $ 8 # $ 8 $( # $ 8 2# $ 8 $(#$ : $ 8 $ $ : # $ $( / = $ $ $#$ : $ / $( $( $ 8 $ #$ * $( # :
8 $( $( #$ (* ( 8 $( #$ : $
! * 9 $( 8 8 = # $( > : : 8 $( 8 = #: 8 $( 5434 8 # 8 # $ : .. B 3
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. 8 8 = #Cause367425433
3444
> : :
3444External interference 0.170 0.057Corrosion 0.057 0.040Construction defect / Material failure 0.059 0.031Hot tap made by error 0.017 0.011Ground movement 0.026 0.015
! * 9< . 8 8 = # #
37 $ $ $( * $/ $( # $( $ 8 # $ $ 8 " 8
Externalinterference
Corrosion Constructiondefect / Materialfailure
Hot tap made byerror
Ground movement
Cause
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
F a i
l u r e
f r e q u e n c y p e r
1 0 0 0 k m
. y r
1970-2010 5 year moving average
0 #= * / *
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Externalinterf.
Corrosion Constr.defect / Mat.
Failure
Hot tapmade by
error
Groundmovem.
Cause
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.060.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
F a i
l u r e
f r e q u e n c y p e r
1 0 0 0 k m y r
Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture
0 # * / *- C < '#5=$ 6 &$#$)
31 ( / $( $ : $( /( $( * " ( $# # * $ $ 8 # /( #( $( $ # # $
>4@ 8 $( # $ 8 / * : $
3.3.3 Secondary failure frequencies!( # 8 8 = # # # $ * : $( * 8 # $ * $
$ . $ $ 8 $( $ $$ # 8 # $ #$
!( # # $ 8 # 8 8 = # $ # $( 8 # 8 M$ J $ $( 8 # : $# $( # # = # 8 $(
# $
# : $ 8 $( $ * $( $ $ # 88 = # ( : * # # $ ## $ $( 8 / $ 6 3 444 E
!( $( $ * $ 8 $( # = # 8 ($ $ 8 "+ $ 8 53 # $ 36 / ( # # 5 $
( ($ ( # 8 $ : #$ 9 ) 9
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3.4 Other analysis
3.4.1 Ageing
!( 8 # 8 $( 8 $( $( 8 8 = # ( * $ $($
$( $( 8 8 = # 8 # # $ ( * $ 8 #$8 # $ #$
0 yr
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3.4.2 Detection of incidents
! * > ( / $( $ * $ 8 $( $ 8 $ #$ !( * # $( $ # $ #$/ $( $ 97@ 8 $( # $ % $ 5434 $ 37@ 8 $( # $ / $ #$ * $(
$
Detection Incident distributionPublic 36.7
Patrol 16.5Contractor 15.6Unknown 7.5Company staff 7.5Distribution company 4.8Landowner 4.6Other 3.3Client 1.7On line inspection 1.6River police 0.2
" 4
Externalinterf.
Corrosion Constr.defect / Mat. Failure
Hot tapmade byerror
Groundmovem.
Other / Unknown
Cause
0
10
20
30
40
50
I n c i
d e n
t d i s t r i b u
t i o n
[ % ]
UnknownClient
Company staffContractor
Distri companyLandowner
On line inspectionPatrol
River policePublic
Other
0 35
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96 $ $ $( $ #$ 8 # $ # $ # * $( $ $ # $$ #$ * $( * # $ $ 8 # * # # $ #$ $( $ $ $
$ 8 $ #$ . $ * $( $ # $ * 88 #$ :
8 $( $ #$ 8 # $ / $( $( # # # $ #$ 8 #$
3.4.3 Ignition probability
$ $ $ : $ /( #( $ $( # = # 8 $( # $$( 367425434 ) >@ 8 $( # # $ $( $ *
$
$ $( $ # 8 $ # !( $ * : $(* $ $ : $ $( * $/ $ "
! * ? : $( $ * * $ " 8
" 8 $ * * $ H@I. ( 2# # )- 5
$ 39
" ; " " < *
$ / $( $ # # : # $ !( # $( # 8/ $( $ ! * 7 # ( / $( $ 8 * $
$ $ $( 8 $ $ # * $ # $( $ $($ $ * ( (
" 8 $ * * $ H@I$ L 3? #( 34$ 3? #( 99
" = " " !
!( : $ * : $( $ * * $ 8 # $ $ $( #$ : 8 $(# $ *: $( $ $( * * $ : ## $ $( # !( # 8 #
$ $( $ * * $ 8 # * ($
+ $ 8 53 $( 367425434 # * ($ 35 $ /( #( * $($ * * $ 8 $ ($ $ >7@
3.4.4 Injuries and fatalities
: $ $ $ # 8 $ * $ 8 8 = # # 8 # $ 8$( $ # $ 8 $ $ # D : 8 $ $
!( $ * 8 # $ = $ $ : 8 $ * $ $( # = # 8 # $!( $ * # $ $ $ 8 35)6 # $ 7 # 4 ?@ 8 $( $ $(
# $ : 8 $ $ $ $ $ $( * # ## 5 # 4 5@ 8 $( $
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!( * * $ 8 : # = # ( *: $ / $( $( * * $ 8 : */ $( 88 #$
4 CONCLUSIONS AND FACTS
( $ $( # $ $ *! # 8 8 8$ # $ / # #$ # $ $$( 39> 444 8 : !( $ $ /( #( $( $( 8
$ 8 $ 9 >> E !( $ $ $ # 8 # $ # #$ $( $ * : * 8 8 = # !(
: # $ 8 = # = $ 4 9> # $ 3 444 : $(3674 $ 5434
!( > : : 8 8 = # 5434 /( #( $ $( :# $ 8 = # : $( $ > = 4 3? 3 444
!( 8 : : : : 8 8 = # ( # # $ $ :$( $( ( $ ( $ $ $ *
!( ( ( # $ * $ 8 $ 8 # ( $ $ # $ $$( $
$ $ 8 # # $ #( #$ * $ $ : # = # $ $ 8 # # $ ( : # : $( $( $ $( / 8
$ $( $ 8 # # $ #$ A $ 8 #$
5 REFERENCE
7$( $ 8 $( . # $ $ 367425447 # * 5441
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D #
# $ % $ %
(@* A
"
@6A
*1@< B* A
*
/ *#$$$ < B*
54E*
/ *#$$$ < B*
54E F*
/ *#$$$ < B*
3674 2 5447 7 $( $ 91 3379 9 3> 34 4 975 4 9>4 4 96)3674 2 5434 1 $( $ )3 35)6 9 >> 34 4 9>3 4 995 4 9733673 2 5434 )4 3555 9 >5 34 ? 4 9)7 4 951 4 9?73613 2 5434 94 1?4 9 43 34 4 51? 4 5?7 4 94>3663 2 5434 54 )?4 5 5> 34 4 54) 4 31? 4 55)
5443 2 5434 34 547 3 5) 34 4 3?7 4 3)> 4 363544? 2 5434 > 34? 4 ?>) 34 4 3?5 4 399 4 36?
" * / ( (
Cause . 88 = #3444
6>@ ;;. 88 = #3444
6>@ %;. 88 = #3444
External interference 0.170 0.157 0.184Corrosion 0.057 0.049 0.065Construction defect / Material failure 0.059 0.051 0.067Hot tap made by error 0.017 0.013 0.022Ground movement 0.026 0.021 0.032
" 5 * / '#5=$6&$#$) 54E(
Cause . 88 = #
3444
6>@ ;;. 8
8 = #3444
6>@ %;. 8
8 = #3444
External interference 0.057 0.040 0.078Corrosion 0.040 0.026 0.058Construction defect / Material failure 0.031 0.019 0.047Hot tap made by error 0.011 0.004 0.022Ground movement 0.015 0.007 0.028
" #$ 46* ( ( * /' &$#$)
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D & .!
& % $ %$ % ! $ $ $
! # ' ! ! %
() # $ $ # $! % $ % %
% % $ ! # "$ *+ $ ,-
2
2
2,2
=
Y
Y i
2
2
21),1(2
+
=
Y
Y u
! . % $ % . . ! $ .% 2 , " $
/(0(/(12(
% & $( $ # # $ $( # 8 # $ : 8 $ " $ $$ # O 8 3664P393 5