8 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS MUMBAI | WEDNESDAY, 28 AUGUST …€¦ · Bharti Airtel say its strategy has...

SURAJEET DAS GUPTA

Just a year after Reliance Jio disrupt-ed the country’s mobile servicesbusiness, a CEO of a leading Indian

telco predicted that the telecom sweep-stakes will be divided amongst three pri-vate sector players. “We expect that oncethe battle is over Airtel, Jio and Vodafone-Idea will each have 30-31 per cent rev-enue market share, with BSNL/MTNLhaving the rest,” the CEO said.

Last fortnight, however, the cosy pre-diction of a three-player market, witheach controlling roughly similar revenuemarket shares, was challenged byReliance Indus tries chairmanMukesh Ambani. Ambaniannou n ced at his AGM thatJio would be aiming toacquire 500 million cus-tomers (currently 340 millionwith a revenue share of 31 percent, which includes nationallong distance revenue as ofQ1 FY20 ). Analysts say that,translated into revenue share,this would give them around43 per cent (Morgan Stanley)to 45 per cent share (sources close to Jio)of the market within two to three years.

On the other hand, executives atBharti Airtel say its strategy has beenclear: To maintain revenue share at 30per cent. If both Jio and Airtel stick totheir guns, the question many analystsare asking is whether the mobile land-scape in the next two years will see theemergence of a dominant duopoly mar-ket represented by Jio and Airtel with amuch smaller number three inVodafone-Idea (with 17-20 per cent of themarket compared to 28.1 per cent rev-

enue market share in Q1 FY20). The jointventure's viability could come underserious scrutiny, especially after the dis-mal financial performance in Q1FY20.State-owned BSNL, thanks to govern-ment support, is expected to maintainits revenue share at 7-10 per cent.

The future shape of the mobile tele-com landscape depends on threeparametres: Whether Jio meets its tar-gets; whether Bharti can continue todefend its turf; and whether Vodafone-Idea can, under newly minted CEORavinder Takkar, accelarate the integra-tion and 4G rollouts nationawide andensure that shareholders are willing to

put in money to stem fallingrevenue and market share.

As things stand,Vodafone-Idea's challengeslook formidable. Jio, forinstance, requires 160 mil-lion more customers to reachita subscriber targets. Manyof these additions have beenat the expense of Vodafone-Idea. The company has beenadding 10 million plus grossadditions every month and,

according to Morgan Stanley, expectsnet additions of 8 million every monthin the remaining months of FY20 and 6million in FY 21 when it expects to hit arevenue share of 42 per cent.

The question, however, is whetherJio has sufficient spectrum to sustainsuch a huge subscriber base, especiallyone that uses more and more data.Competitors point out that bothVodafone-Idea and Bharti have a muchlarger share of the spectrum assets andthat is a big disadvantage which theycan rectify only by buying more in the

upcoming auction. That means Reliancewill have to continue to make substan-tial investments.

The other question is whether Airtelwill be able to hold on to its revenueshare. If its performance is anything togo by, its revenue market share since FY2017 has remained stable at 30 per centdespite the bruising price war it foughtwith Jio. And now with tariffs far morestable there is no reason to think it won't.Airtel is also increasing revenues byupgrading more customers from 2G tobroadband, which increases revenue peruser metrics or ARPUs. So even thoughit cleaned up low paying customers (itlost 1.5 customers in the FY20 Junequarter),upgrading over 8.4 million sub-scribers to 4G helped them to increaseoverall revenues by 2.2 per cent.

But can Vodafone-Idea stem the freefall in subscribers and regain the marketwhich it has lost in the process of themerger. Research house Bernstein, whichhas studied telecom mergers across theworld, say that they inevitably lead to afall in revenue market share of one to 4per cent in the first two years. The largestadverse impact it says was in the mergerbetween Vodafone and Hutchison inAustralia which led to a revenue marketshare loss of 8 per cent. But it took fiveyears for the losses to stop and even aftera decade it has still not been able to recov-er its post-merger market share.

To stem the fall in revenue share ithas to quickly move more 2G customersto 3G/4G . But in quarter ended JuneVodafone-Idea added just 0.3 millionbroadband customers (3G and 4G )compared to 2.3 million in Q4 2019.That is because its LTE coverage lagsboth in capacity and coverage behind

Jio and Airtel (covers 850 million peo-ple compared to 1 billion of Airtel and1.2 billion of Jio). On top of it, it has alsolost 14 million customers, its rise inARPU has not been able to offset thefact that its revenues declined 4 percent quarter on quarter.

That’s not all: despite the ~25,000crore rights issue Vodafone-Idea's debtis 20X of Ebidta and a large part of themoney will have to go to reduce debt.And Kotak Institutional Equities pointsout that the Rs 28 billion capex invest-ment in Q1 of 2020 is disappointing giventhat it needs to put in more money andcan ill afford to leave the gap in its LTEcoverage and capacity over its rivals.Kotak estimates that the company willcontinue to bleed till 2024.

Sources close to Vodafone-Idea, how-ever, say that the two shareholders arecommitted to putting in more moneyand this point is being underestimated.That apart, the integration process is ontrack (it has covered districts which con-stitute 50 per cent of their revenues )

which will garner substantial cost sav-ings once it is completed by June 2020.“ The fact that VIL has the highest 4Gspectrum share amongst telcos is beingignored while revenue and subscribermarket share are being given so muchimportance. So with spectrum re-farm-ing we can up speeds by 50 to 70 percent which is already happening.Competitors have to buy additional spec-trum to carry 4G services. Plus Vodafonehad the best indoor coverage equipmentand that will be key to quality,” says aformer top executive in the company.

Vodafone-Idea also has monetisationopportunities. The value of its stake inIndus Towers should bring in around ~56billion and it sees opportunities monetis-ing its fibre business. Analysts say thecompany would require another infusionof cash by the shareholders in the nextsix quarters. The question is whether theywill stand firm to get the company, whoseshares have plunged below ~10, back onthe rails. And then put in the cash to grablost market share.

8 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS>

MUMBAI | WEDNESDAY, 28 AUGUST 2019

> CHINESE WHISPERS

> LETTERS

Just as the ~74,000 croreIndian broadcasting indus-try was heaving a sigh of

relief, comes a new whammyfrom the regulator.

On August 16 a ‘ConsultationPaper on Tariff Related Issuesfor Broadcasting and CableServices’ was released by theTRAI. “Barely a few monthsafter the commencement of theNTO (or the New Tariff Order,implemented in February),

before the industry and moreimportantly the consumer hasfully adapted to the new regula-tory regime, TRAI proposes afresh consultation paper seek-ing to make fundamentalchanges in channel pricing andbouquet formation. This goesagainst all norms of a stable reg-ulatory regime so necessary forthe economic advancement ofany industry,” says an IndianBroadcasting Foundation pressrelease on August 23.

Even if you ignore broadcast-ers’ protests, TRAI’s haste and thepaper itself defies understanding.

Over the 15 years that theTRAI has been broadcast regula-tor, most of its papers have beenclear cut and well analysed. Thisone is essentially a rant againstbundling. It was a big thing inthe original order. In Januarywhen I asked R.S. Sharma, chair-man, TRAI, about it, he said, “Weare not anti-bundling.” But thisnew paper goes on and on raisingquestions on bundling versus a

la carte channels, on how muchdiscounts should be offered, theceiling on pricing etc.

The timing is totally off. Themarket is just five months intothe tariff order. Its impact is stillbeing processed.

The first positive impact, andfor which the TRAI should takecredit, is that it has broughttransparency and method. As aresult broadcasters’ subscrip-tion revenues and MSO rev-enues have gone up as morehomes are declared and revenueleakages plugged. However, aspeople pick and choose chan-nels, many channels have lostreach and ad growth acrossbroadcasters has plummeted.

Second, prices have gone upbecause there is now a networkcapacity fee of ~154 per home permonth (including taxes) for abasic tier of 100 channels. Ofthese 25 Doordarshan channelsare mandatory, so essentially youpay for 75 channels assumingthey are free-to-air. Pay channels

are priced separately. Note thatover 28 years of private televi-sion, the average cable TV priceshave remained way below infla-tion rates when compared tomany essential commodities.And cable television is not anessential commodity.

Third, consumer choice hasgone down. On an average,Indian homes watched 40-60channels a month. These are ofdifferent genres — sports,music, entertainment, films, allin different languages. Afterthe tariff order this number hasgone down to 32-48 channels ahome, according to one broad-caster. Remember that 98 percent of India’s 197 million TVhomes have one TV which iswatched jointly. So dad, mom,kids, grandparents all havetheir choices.

Anti-bundling diktats haveled to people dropping chan-nels, killing serendipity fromcontent discovery and forcingviewers into silos defined by

genres or languages only.This is where TRAI’s argu-

ments that bundling is againstconsumer interests unravel.Globally bundling is a donething in most industries -- air-lines, hotels, media, consumerproducts and most importantlyin telecom which the TRAI reg-ulates. Buffets are usually cheap-er and offer more variety thanan a la carte meal.

The fourth impact, not sur-prisingly, has been a migrationof about 2 million homes fromcable to DTH which now standsat 70 odd million. DTH with itsbackend, call centres et al is bet-ter equipped to deal with theflexibility needed to give you fivechannels from different broad-casters or to change thatovernight. However, a bulk of theTV homes in India, about 100million, are with cable compa-nies which do not have the flexi-bility or backend to make onechannel-at-a-time changes. Thisis frustrating for consumers whodon’t get their choice of channelsor are offered a best-fit package.As revenues improve and moneycomes back into the system mostMSOs will invest in technologyand this too should get sorted.

What then was the hurrywith this paper?

Step back for a bit to see thepointlessness of debating bun-dles, choice and flexibility in2019. Hotstar, Zee5 or Voot sellthe same channels/program-ming that their parents Star, Zeeor Viacom18 do. But their pricesare not regulated: nor shouldthey be. Why then should theprice at which the same chan-nels and programming are soldon cable or DTH? There are threedifferent technologies, cable,DTH and online, countlessdevices and packages that theconsumer can watch his TV orentertainment on. What is theneed to nano-manage thisindustry to death?

Most media regulators suchas the UK's Ofcom usually cal-culate the cost of regulatingversus not regulating by doingimpact analysis for any newrecommendation. It is time theindustry and consumer organ-isations demanded that TRAIdoes the same. That mightchange its mind about rushingin with consultation papersevery few months.

Twitter: @vanitakohlik

Why TRAI doesn’t like bundlingA new consultation paper raises hackles in the television industry Identity crisis

A high-level scrutinycommittee set up bythe Chhattisgarhgovernment hasdismissed formerchief minister AjitJogi's claim ofbelonging to a

Scheduled Tribe. Jogi, in his reaction tothe yet-unpublished findings, said theywere false, and alleged that thecommittee was influenced by theCongress government in the state. Thehigh-powered certification scrutinycommittee was formed on the order ofthe Chhattisgarh High Court in 2018. Thepanel concluded that Jogi had failed tosubstantiate his claim of belonging to theKanwar community, a Scheduled Tribe.The committee also authorised theBilaspur collector to carry out necessaryproceedings under the ChhattisgarhScheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes andother Backward Classes (Regulation ofSocial Status Certification) Rules, 2013. Ithas ordered confiscating all castecertificates issued to Jogi in the past.

Be preparedRecriminations within the Congress havestarted after party President SoniaGandhi appointed Rameshwar Oraon asthe chief of the party's Jharkhand unit.The state, along with Maharashtra andHaryana, is poll-bound in the next fewmonths. Oraon replaced Ajoy Kumar,who quit earlier this month taking moralresponsibility for the party's defeat inthe state in the Lok Sabha electionswhile also accusing local leaders ofsabotage. Kumar, 57, had quit theIndian Police Service to join the Congressand is a former Lok Sabha member. Theappointment of 72-year-old Oraon hascome as a disappointment as he is not inthe best of health. Oraon is also a formerLok Sabha member, and was consideredclose to Rashtriya Janata Dal leader LaluPrasad. The Congress is facing internalsquabbling in Haryana as well, whereparty leader Bhupinder Singh Hoodawants state unit chief Ashok Tanwar tobe replaced, but the central leadership isyet to take a decision. Party leaders areworried about the lack of preparednessin these three states, and say a rout inthe forthcoming Assembly polls couldtrigger its disintegration.

A time bank for MPThe Congress government in MadhyaPradesh is planning to establish a first-of-its-kind time bank in the state. Thisinitiative will help take care of elderlycouples and people who live alone.Under the scheme, people who have thetime can volunteer to help needypeople. The time they spend in helpingothers would be deposited in theirpersonal accounts under a sort of socialsecurity system. When they in turn getold and need help, they can tap thetime bank and a volunteer would beassigned to take care of them.Introducing the idea, the minister forreligious trust and endowment, P CSharma, said, "This would be thebiggest experiment of its kind if we canagree on it."

Hedge rate risk

This refers to “A first step to revival”(August 26). The Finance Minister'srevival package also contains guid-ance to banks to link lending rates torepo rate, a proposal being finalisedby the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).Good that banks are at last movingtowards the floating rate of interest.However linking with repo rate doesnot serve any purpose. It is a policyrate and not a market-determinedrate. And it is relevant only for short-term lending, say, not beyond threemonths. There is no way we can swapit into a fixed rate. A floating ratemust be a market-determined rate,either G-Sec yield or the MumbaiInterbank Forward Offer Rate(MIFOR), where the rate risk can behedged by a swap either by the lender(to suit his asset-liability manage-ment) or by borrower (to suit hisincome flows) — though as on datethe RBI doesn't allow MIFOR swapsfor fear of globalising the interest rateenvironment.

The RBI's efforts should thereforemove towards a market-determinedbenchmark cost for funds, either aG-Sec yield of corresponding matu-rity, or 10-year G-Sec yield for medi-um- and long-term advances, and aT-bill rate for short-term loans of upto one year maturity.

C Chandrasekhar Mumbai

Different viewsAs the reviewer of my book is afriend whatever I have to say totrash his review (Facts about India'sPMs, August 27) I will tell him inprivate.

First the expression Nehru-Gandhi dynasty used by the review-er. I have railed against this hyphen-ation and the loss of memory aboutLal Bahadur Shastri at several placesin the book. Nehru and IndiraGandhi were as different as day andnight particularly in the way shepromoted one son to be PM and thenanother.

About the anti-Sikh riots, on page124 the book mentions the names ofothers who held office in Delhi atthat time such as LieutenantGovernor P.G. Gavai, PoliceCommissioner S.C. Tandon andPrincipal Secretary to PrimeMinister P.C. Alexander. As for RajivGandhi. the book blames himsquarely as the head of governmentboth on page 124 and again on page149 in the following terms: "It defiesbelief that the Central government,which is responsible for internalsecurity around the country, tookfour days to bring the violence to anend." Even a cursory reading of page124 indicates that I do not suggestthat Rajiv Gandhi should have takensome time off if he was grief strick-en. The point made was that "if" hewas completely devastated by his

mother's violent death he should nothave immediately accepted themany responsibilities that comewith taking charge as head of government.

As for the reference to JusticeJagmohan Sinha and V Krishna Iyermy learned friend SrinivasaRaghavan seems to have forgottenthat we should not blame or praiseindividual justices only comment ontheir judgements and hence thebook does not make this mistake.

Lastly, I was careful in my com-ments about not just the govern-ments led by Atal Bihari Vajpayeeand Narendra Modi but about allPMs. Readers deserve objective anal-ysis. I differ with the reviewer thatthere was just “dead-pan” recount-ing of events in the chapters onVajpayee and Modi since, for exam-ple, analysis of events related to theUTI scandal and growth and unem-ployment numbers during the termsof these two PMs respectively pro-vide fresh perspectives.

The problem seems to be that thereviewer has strongly held personalviews and the book’s research andanalysis do not conform to them.

Jaimini Bhagwati via email

Letters can be mailed, faxed or e-mailed to: The Editor, Business StandardNehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg New Delhi 110 002 Fax: (011) 23720201 · E-mail: [email protected] letters must have a postal address andtelephone number

> HAMBONE

The full implications ofthe revisions in the RBI’sEconomic Capital

Framework (ECF) recommend-ed by the Bimal Jalan- chairedcommittee will be better under-stood after the release of theFY19 (July-June) RBI annualreport. The following is basedon the known RBI FY18 results.

The broad contours of theECF and transfer are as follows.The RBI will be transferring~1.76 trillion to the government,comprising ~1.23 trillion of sur-plus (dividend) earned in FY19and another ~0.53 trilliondeemed to be provisions inexcess of the norms based onthe changes in the revised ECF(the prior norms were based onthe 2013 Malegam Committeerecommendations). The ~1.23trillion surplus includes theinterim dividend paid by RBI inMarch 2019. Net of this, this isabout ~0.5 trillion more than thewidely quoted (but not official)estimate of a budgeted Rs 900billion dividend payment fromthe RBI. Adding the excess pro-vision will give the centre anadditional ~580 billion.

Rationalising this excess pro-vision is difficult. The release wason the basis of a change in the var-ious methodologies and metrics.The first is a shift from the existing

use of stressed value at risk (VaR)for measuring RBI’s market riskto adopting an expected shortfall(ES) method. While an explana-tion of the implications of thisshift is best left to risk analyticsexperts, the intuition is as follows.Paraphrasing John Hull, VaR asksthe question, “how bad can thingsget”, ES (also known as condition-al VaR) as ks, “if things do get bad,what is the expected loss?”. Whileshifting, the committee hasadopted a more stringent confi-dence level of 99.5 per cent com-pared to general central banksadoption of a 99 per cent level.

The second major change isin the surplus distribution policy,which is now to be based on the‘“realised equity” level within theoverall economic capital, ratherthan the economic capital alone.This realised equity consists ofthe profits from actual sale ofassets plus the interest and divi-dend the RBI earns fr om thesecurities it holds, and wh ichcontributes to the cumulativeretained earning “referred to asthe Contingent Risk Buffer”.

To make sense of these con-cepts, the following is the pub-lished RBI balance sheet as ofJune 30, 2018. RBI’s capital plusreserves (including payment ofdividend to the government)was ~10.46 trillion, or about 28per cent of the total assets. Ofthis, the contingency fund (CF)was ~2.32 trillion (6.4 per centof assets), representing a “rainyday” fund of specific provisionmade by RBI. The remaindermainly consists of revaluationaccounts as RBI’s foreign anddomestic assets are marked tomarket (MTM) and fluctuate invalue with interest and

exchange rates. Within this, theInvestment RevaluationAccount (IRA) on INR securitiesis ~0.13 trillion. The Currencyand Gold Revaluation Account(CGRA) is ~6.92 trillion (19.1 percent of total assets), accountingfor MTM on foreign currencyand gold assets. The CGRA iscreated so the balance sheetmatches when foreignexchange (fx) reserves arerestated in INR. Essentially,these represent valuation ofreserves held from point of pur-chase. Under the RBI’s account-ing policy, revaluation gains oncurrency and bonds is not con-sidered as capital, and is onlyseen as an accounting entry(consistent with BIS norms).Broadly then, if somewhatincorrectly, realised equity (RE)is RBI’s P&L and economic cap-ital is RE plus the MTM compo-nent of the balance sheet.

Regarding the potentialimplications for the centre’s fis-cal outcomes, if the excess trans-fer is used for bridging a tax rev-enue shortfall, the broadcontours of spends in the Budgetwill be maintained. If, on the oth-er hand, budgeted revenue tar-gets are met, the transfer can beused to craft a stimulus response.Projections of various revenuestreams using the run rates ofApril-June FY20, with an expec-tation of some improvements inH2, tax revenues (net to centreafter transfers to states) is expect-ed to be about ~0.7 trillion shortof the ~16.5 trillion, and disinvest-ment revenues by about ~0.25trillion short. The additional~0.58 trillion from the RBI, plusa potential further interim divi-dend in late FY20, can cover any

potential tax revenue gap. The other effect will be on

system liquidity. While the sys-tem has been in surplus sincelate June 2019, it is expected torevert to a deficit in late Q3 FY20,although the deficit is unlikelyto be as severe as last year.Transferring the surplus to thegovernment in one go can helpin paying the upfront Rs 700 bil-lion recapitalisation of PSBswithout having to take recourseto WMAs or cash managementbills. Factoring in an interim div-idend payout of around Rs 350billion, the transfers will addaround Rs 900 billion to currentliquidity levels. Given our shal-low liquidity deficit forecast pri-or to the proposed transfer, thisimplies that the system will nowbe in surplus for most of evenH2 FY20, with implications fortransmission to lending rates.

Will the excess provision forRBI’s FY19 be more of a one-time transfer, or can themethodology changes permitcontinuing payments in thenext few years? The RBI’s eco-nomic capital was 23.3 per centof its balance sheet as of June2019, relative to the range sug-gested by the revised frameworkof 20-24.5 per cent. Financialresilience conditions in futurewill determine the extent oftransfers feasible. Moreover, wedo not expect RBI’s balancesheet to grow as much in FY20,given little or no OMOs buys, fxswaps and more moderatebuild-up of forex reserves.

The author is chief economist ofAxis Bank. Tanay Dalalcontributed to the article. Viewsare personal

RBI's surplus transfer math

SAUGATA BHATTACHARYA

INSIGHT

A call on the telecom futureWhy today's three-horse race might become a duopoly

MEDIASCOPEVANITA KOHLI-KHANDEKAR

TAKETWOANALYSIS BEHIND THE HEADLINES

Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20AGR is adjusted gross revenue and NLD is nationallong distance Source: ICICI Securities

HOW THEY STACK UPMarket share by revenue (AGR & NLD) %n Bharti Airtel n Vodafone Idea n Reliance Jio n BSNL/MTNL n Others

31.7

34.7

22.4

8.1

3.1

30.9

32.8

26.1

7.0

3.2

30.0

31.4

29.7

5.9

3.0

27.2

32.1

31.6

2.0

30.0

28.1

31.7

8.6

1.6

7.1

OPINION 9> STAY INFORMED THROUGH THE DAY @ WWW.BUSINESS-STANDARD.COM

Volume XXIV Number 12

MUMBAI | WEDNESDAY, 28 AUGUST 2019

Many of the Democratic party contenders forthe US Presidency have endorsed a set of eco-nomic policies promoted by purveyors of

what is called “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT).The charismatic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez, who though too young to run for Presidentherself, has already set part of the Democrat’s agendawith the Green New Deal, has now endorsed MMT asthe basis for the Democrat’s economic policy. In thisshe joins Stephanie Kelton, a professor at Stony BrookUniversity, who was an advisor to Bernie Sanders in2016 after serving as the chief economist in the USSenate Budget Committee in 2015. The archbishop ofMMT is Herman Minsky’s student, L Randall Wray,whose Modern Money Theory ,(2nd edtn, PalgraveMacmillan, 2015) provides the best consolidatedaccount of the “theory” and policyprescriptions of MMT.

These progressive “democraticsocialists” — as they call them-selves — have proposed a wholeset of new public programmes.The question my students weretaught to ask was: Who will pay forthem? MMT claims that whilst thisquestion makes sense for a house-hold or business, it makes no sensefor a government which issues itsown currency and can “alwaysafford a new programme in finan-cial terms because it can issue cur-rency without taxing or borrowing”. (“ModernMonetary theory explained. An interview withStephanie Kelton” (https://theglobepost.com/2019/03/28/stephanie-kelton-mmt/). The problem is “aboutwhether spending to fund your programme will causean inflation problem”, this can be triggered if “our realresources are constrained not our financial resources”.She adds that “it means that the government can safelyadd dollars to the economy through deficit spending”.

On supply side measures like cutting taxes andderegulating industries to promote growth she says

“all of the supply side approaches are trying to createthe right environment, unleash or awaken businessincentives to hire or invest. I think that gets it com-pletely backward. Businesses hire and invest whenthey are swamped with customers. That meansdemand is the key driver. You’re talking about a com-pletely different approach from supply side todemand driven.”

This all sounds very much like the oldKeynesianism, and as Thomas Palley argues (“Money,fiscal policy, and interest rates: A critique of ModernMonetary theory”, (http://www.thomaspalley.com/docs/articles/macro_theory/mmt.pdf)) much of this is oldhat Keynesianism, which recognised that in a fiat cur-rency economy, the financial constraint on govern-ments is not the same as households or businesses,

and it cannot become insolvent on debtissued in its own currency. Also, its mon-ey creation is limited by inflation whichaccelerates when economy’s realresources are utilised at full employ-ment. But unlike the neo-Keynesians,MMT does not recognise the Phillipscurve relating inflation and unemploy-ment and the resulting trade-offs forpublic policy before full employment isachieved. Finally, the government cancontain demand pull inflation by taxa-tion and bond issuance to removeexcess money from circulation.

MMT also denies the “crowding out”effects of government deficit spending. But as RobertP Murphy of the Mises Institute shows (“The Upside-Down World of MMT, (https://mises.org/print/6962)is based on their peculiar definition of “savings” as“net private savings”. From national income account-ing identities, they argue that “if the government wereto reduce its budget deficit then the private sector’ssaving would necessarily go down”. Murphy showsthat as the government deficit grows, the left handside of the accounting identity rises. “So the righthand side must grow bigger. It may happen partially

because people cut down on consumption and savemore, but it may also happen because private invest-ment goes down”. That is, the equation tells us “wemight see lower private consumption, rising interestrates, and real resources being siphoned out of pri-vate investment into pork-barrel spending projects”.Even in the MMT world there would be “crowdingout” from fiscal deficits.

It is two other aspects of the MMT policy packagewhich are new. The first is their policy for fullemployment. They do not believe that conventionalmonetary or fiscal policy will do this. So, they wanta programme similar to the Indian National RuralEmployment Guarantee Act, as a universal nationaljob guarantee (JG) cum employer of last resort (ELR)programme. This would provide a wage below themarket wage to anyone unemployed and willing towork on any private or public project. It would befinanced by a money financed budget deficit. AsWray (2015) argues this programme should appealto libertarians, as “it is not Big Brother. It is noteven Big Government…It is a purely voluntary pro-gramme, only for those who want to work. Thosewho will not work cannot participate…..The jobsdo not have to be provided by government at all.No one has to take a job. It is consistent with themost cherished norms of freedom-loving libertari-ans and Austrians”, (p.245). The progressive Palleycriticises the programme for political economy rea-sons, as it could lead to the undermining of publicsector workers and public sector pay as govern-ments substitute ELR workers for public sectorworkers. This and other fears adduced by Palley asundermining minimum wages and government ingeneral are likely to make this programme appeal-ing to classical liberals!

The second new aspect of MMT is its interest ratepolicy. It asserts that Wicksell’s natural rate of interestwhich equates the rate of return on capital (produc-tivity) with the private rate of time preference (thrift)is zero. So, the central bank should “set the overnightrate at zero and keep it there”. (Wray, “A Post Keynesianview of central bank independence, policy targets andthe rules versus discretion debate”, Journal of PostKeynesian Economics, 2007,.138). This, of course,implies (as MMT recognises,) the well-known condi-tion for preventing deficit financing to lead to an explo-sively rising public debt ratio, namely that the interestrate on the debt (r) should be less than the growth rateof the economy (g ) will always be met, and also entailthe progressive Keynesian outcome of the “euthanasiaof the rentier”. (Wray 2015, p.64).

Putting the interest rate at zero puts fiscal policyas the sole stabilisation tool, which as Milton Friedmanshowed, given the lags involved, discretionary fiscalpolicy is an inferior instrument compared to countercyclical interest rate policy to stabilise the economy.More seriously, with inflation at high or full employ-ment “setting the short term nominal policy rate atzero becomes a recipe for encouraging financial spec-ulation and asset price inflation driven by debt , whichends in financial crisis” (Palley: “MMT: the emperorhas no clothes”, Feb,2014).

My conclusions can be brief. MMT is mostly theold Keynesianism and apart from the JG/ELR pro-gramme much of what is new is unconvincing, and adangerous template for public policy.

Much of what is new in MMT is unconvincing and a dangeroustemplate for public policy

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s first bigeconomic policy announcement last Fridayevening, almost a month and a half after she

had presented her first Budget on July 5, has beenwarmly greeted by the Bombay Stock Exchange. TheSensex, its benchmark index, went up by about 800points on Monday. Of course, hopes of a resumptionin US-China trade talks also buoyed the overall stockmarket sentiment, but you cannot really overlookthe positive impact of Ms Sitharaman’s announce-ment on the Sensex that rallied byover 2 per cent.

A bigger announcement wasmade on Monday evening. TheReserve Bank of India issued a state-ment after its board meeting that ithad accepted the recommendationsof the Bimal Jalan Committee,which had examined the requiredprovisions the central bank shouldmake to meet its economic capitalneeds including the contingencyfund, currency and gold revaluationreserves and other reserves.

That meant the RBI could trans-fer about ~1.76 trillion to the government — of which ~52,637 crore would be by way of excess contingencyfund provisions and ~1.23 trillion by way of dividend.Of the dividend amount, ~28,000 crore was alreadypaid out by the RBI some months ago as an interimamount, which was shown as part of the Union gov-ernment’s revenue for 2018-19.

Thus, the actual revenue for the government in2019-20 as a result of the RBI accepting the JalanCommittee recommendations is about ~1.48 trillion.The Union Budget for 2019-20 provided for a totalrevenue of ~90,000 crore from the RBI. Thus, theextra money that the Centre has now received is~58,000 crore. This is just about 0.3 per cent of India’sgross domestic product or GDP.

Nevertheless, the stock markets greeted theannouncement once again on Tuesday with the Sensexscaling another 147 points. With the government’s fis-cal situation getting slightly better and expectations

of reduced pressure on its borrowing, the 10-year gov-ernment paper’s yields also began softening.

The danger, however, is that this excitement inthe markets may lull the government into wronglybelieving that all the economy’s woes are over andthe problems have been fixed. That would be dan-gerous. Neither of the moves is a sure and sustain-able way of addressing the economy’s deeper prob-lems. The measures initiated so far have their ownlimitations and the government would do well not

to go overboard with its achieve-ments in changing the mood in themarkets and industry.

Take the package announced forthe automobile industry on Friday.The doubling of the depreciationprovisions to 30 per cent will cer-tainly encourage higher sales ofcommercial vehicles and passengervehicles, as enterprises and self-employed tax payers would try totake advantage of the tax benefit ontheir purchase of vehicles beforeMarch 2020. Similarly, the hugeinventory of vehicles gathering dust

at the dealers’ end is likely to be cleared after thedecision that BS-IV vehicles will be allowed to operatefor the entire duration of 10-15 years of their regis-tration period, provided they are purchased by theend of March 2020. Relaxation in the registrationnorms and the introduction of a scrappage policyfor old vehicles will also improve the prospects ofautomobile sales in the country.

But the impact of these measures will be of a rel-atively short duration. What happens next year tothe demand for vehicles is something that will con-tinue to bother the automobile industry and, there-fore, the government. The automobile industry hasa share of about 7 per cent in the country’s GDP. Itaccounts for almost half of the entire manufacturingsector and provides jobs to 8 million people directlyand indirectly.

There are serious doubts over the long-termdemand for non-electrical vehicles in all major

economies of the world. India cannot remain anexception. The impact of technology, the rise of theshare economy and the behavioural shift away frombuying of passenger vehicles among the younger peo-ple are all factors that would continue to keep thedemand for automobiles depressed. Solving thedemand problem for the automobile sector for justthis year is clearly not enough.

An equally important issue that the governmenthas to keep in mind is the importance of quick andsmooth implementation of the many measures thatMs Sitharaman announced last Friday. Announcinga package of measures is only the beginning of anexercise to repair the damage the ongoing slowdownhas caused to the economy. How effective that pack-age becomes will depend on how quickly those deci-sions are implemented on the ground. For instance,the well-intentioned scrappage policy for old vehiclesshould be finalised at the earliest. If the idea becomesa victim of conflicting views of different ministries,there will be avoidable delays and the promisedrecovery would become more elusive.

The decision to quickly release ~70,000 crore torecapitalise public sector banks will also require care-ful thought and planning before it is implemented.Should the upfront recapitalisation plan use a mer-it-based method by which banks that are relativelyhealthier and have performed well in recovering theirpast sticky loans get a larger share in the pie? Andshould this package be combined with a fresh roundof public sector bank consolidation? Similar cautionshould be exercised while implementing the schemefor one-time settlement of loans due from micro,small and medium enterprises. Settlement of duesshould not be allowed to adversely affect credit dis-cipline among borrowers.

Finally, the government would do well to resistpressure on it to loosen the purse strings now thatit will receive ~58,000 crore of extra funds, availableas a result of the Jalan Committee’s recommenda-tions. The dangers of a tax revenue shortfall are real.And it would be advisable to use the extra RBI moneyto meet the revenue shortfall, instead of using it fora stimulus.

The one-horned rhinoceros isendemic to Assam. The rhinocerosis also known for its thick skin.

Over the years, I too have become thick-skinned, I think,” writes Teresa Rehman.Her new book Bulletproof is a first-personaccount of her experiences as a journalistin Guwahati, reporting on conflict in thenorth-eastern states of India. This workspans over two decades, and has won sev-eral awards. Her book is worth readingfor its nuanced exploration of a region

that is under-reported and widely mis-represented.

Instead of merely compiling the mostexciting stories of her career, Ms Rehmanplaces them in a wider context to helpthe reader understand why the north-east is a challenging region for journal-ists. They operate in an environmentwhere several militant outfits are active,editors have been killed, bombs havebeen delivered to newspaper offices,reporters have faced the wrath of securityagencies as well as non-state actors, andmedia houses have been compelled topublish press releases.

Ms Rehman reflects on her vulnera-bilities, enriching the book with a per-spective that is deeply personal. Recallinga crossfire at a remote location inNagaland, she says, “As I lay low in thebushes, I thought: Would I survive? Wouldit really matter? Would I be reduced to a

number on the long list of statistics ofjournalists killed in the region?” The read-er is led to wonder what makes journalistsput their lives on the line, and go aftersuch perilous stories with single-mindeddetermination. Is it idealism ormasochism or just another day at work?

Ms Rehman also writes at lengthabout how her work took a toll on hermental health. This is perhaps the mostcourageous part of Bulletproof. After cov-ering a “fake encounter” in Manipur, herstory was picked up by international pub-lications, and reinvigorated the debatearound the draconian Armed Forces(Special Powers) Act that has been abusedto cover up extra-judicial killings. She wasrepeatedly summoned by the authorities,and made to feel like a criminal.

This harassment made Ms Rehmanincreasingly irritable. She became aninsomniac. She started having night-

mares, screaming at her daughter, andtalking to herself. One day, she hit herdaughter over a petty issue, and her hus-band suggested seeing a psychiatrist. MsRehman was diagnosed with post-trau-matic stress disorder (PTSD). She had totake antidepressants, apart from dealingwith the social stigma around visitingpsychiatrists. This book makes a strongcase for the need for support systems to“deal with physical dangers, legal rig-maroles and the psychological traumathat a journalist goes through.”

Ms Rehman reveals that her trainingas a media student at the Indian Instituteof Mass Communication in Delhi did notprepare her for the ground realities ofconflict reporting. She had to learn a loton the job about keeping herself safe fromsurveillance, intimidation and sexualassault. She did not want to be limitedby her gender, so she had to go the extramile to do well in a sub-field of journalismthat “seems very masculine — full of sto-ries of artillery, statistics, guns, weapons,soldiers, militants, peace talks and often

dry press releases.” Ms Rehman makes multiple refer-

ences to how her gender identity influ-ences her negotiation of space on thefield. This includes decisions about whatto wear, where to meet informants, andwhether to use a particular toilet or not.However, the protagonists in all the chap-ters are men. Women make only fleetingappearances. They might have agencybut the reader does not get access to theirideas, lives and dreams. It is unclearwhether Ms Rehman chose not to high-light their stories or if she did not findthem interesting enough for the purposeof this book.

Amidst the harshness surroundingher, Ms Rehman humanises the narra-tives of militants, poachers and sharp-shooters. She describes a meeting withex-militants from the United LiberationFront of Assam (ULFA) who are tryinghard to rebuild their lives but have beenunsuccessful. Ms Rehman approachesthem with an empathy that is rare andendearing. She notes how difficult it is

to re-enter mainstream society “afterhaving spent years in solitude in the jun-gles, engaging in violent combat withthe state”.

Ms Rehman presents tender portraitsof people who are the castaways of societybut at the risk of romanticising them. Herconversations with her intervieweesreveal an ability to catch them unawares,and make them warm up to her. “Anygood reporter’s kitty has a whole rangeof sources — a pan shop owner, the pres-ident of the taxi association, a top cop, acriminal lawyer, an anganwadi worker, award boy, a chef, a gardener, a domestichelp, a mechanic — almost everyone hassecrets to share, if you know how to cul-tivate them,” she says.

Dangers of complacency

In the line of fire

BOOK REVIEWCHINTAN GIRISH MODI

BULLETPROOFTeresa RehmanPenguin/Viking

Penguin Books, 173 pages, ~399

ILLUSTRATION: BINAY SINHA

One of the biggest sources of friction between the Union governmentand the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is history now, with the latteraccepting the recommendations of the expert committee, constitutedunder the chairmanship of former RBI governor Bimal Jalan to

review the economic capital framework. The RBI board has decided to transfer~1.76 trillion to the government. This includes about ~1.23 trillion of surplusincome in 2018-19 and ~52,637 crore worth of excess provisions recognised inaccordance with the framework recommended by the Jalan committee. Sincethe central bank has paid an interim dividend of ~28,000 crore and the govern-ment has budgeted for ~90,000 crore in the current fiscal year, the additionaltransfer would amount to about ~58,000 crore.

The committee has put in place new ground rules for risk provisioningand surplus distribution. A clear distinction has been made between realisedequity and revaluation balances. The committee has noted that any shortfallin the revaluation balances can be met with provisioning from net income butthe surplus revaluation reserves cannot be used for the provisioning of otherrisks. In terms of the distribution of surplus, the committee recommendedkeeping the realised equity, which is essential to cover operational and creditrisks, in the range of 6.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent of the central bank’s balancesheet. The realised equity in the RBI’s balance sheet stood at 6.8 per cent.

The RBI has gone the full distance, not just in the chosen level of realisedequity but also by transferring the entire surplus capital in one year. It can beargued that since the government had budgeted to receive only ~90,000 crorefrom the RBI, which is more than covered by the unusually large dividendpayout, there was no pressing need to transfer the entire amount of excesscapital in one shot. A staggered approach would have been better, even if thecentral bank decided to bring down the realised equity to 5.5 per cent.

Now that the RBI has done what it can to please the finance ministry, whatshould the government, which has an unbudgeted cushion of ~58,000 crore,do? Given the expected revenue shortfall this year, this unbudgeted receiptshould be used to make up the deficit. It would hurt market sentiment if thegovernment is not able to attain the fiscal deficit target despite more than bud-geted receipts from the central bank. Should there be a cushion after meetingrevenue shortfalls, the priority should be to use what is a one-time bonus tointroduce more honest accounting, and reduce or eliminate off-balance sheetborrowing to meet government expenditure. Going by the recent Comptrollerand Auditor General report, this off-balance sheet borrowing is substantial.There will be a lot of clamour for a fiscal push, using the excess money received.But the government’s focus should be on wise use of a one-time bonus.

Overall, in the given circumstance, the additional transfer from the RBIwill not have a material impact on government finances. It is important toaddress the issues in the goods and services tax to enhance revenue, and pushregulatory reforms to revive growth in a sustainable way.

The govt’s focus should be on wise use of RBI’s one-time bonus

No windfall

Disarray in FranceThe G-7 summit reveals the deep divisions in the global order

The rise of modernmonetary theory

DEEPAK LAL

NEW DELHI DIARYA K BHATTACHARYA

When the meeting of the Group of Seven industrialised countrieswrapped up on Monday, it was more clear than ever how starkthe divisions within the global order have become. The G-7agreed on little; there were reports at least that Europe and

the US had come to some basic agreement over the former’s controversialtaxation of the latter’s big technology companies, but details are thin on theground. Even the global crisis of the moment — the fires in the world’sgreatest carbon sink, the Amazon forest — was met with only a perfunctorypromise of $20 million for reforestation, subsequently rejected by BrazilianPresident Jair Bolsonaro.

The divisions between President Donald Trump’s America and its part-ners in the G-7 over international trade, climate change, and how to handlethe Islamic Republic of Iran are bad enough. But those were not the onlyfault lines on display. It is worth remembering that many of the other mem-bers of the G-7 are in the midst of deep disagreements with their peers.Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s UK is preparing to leave the EuropeanUnion without a deal on its future relations with the bloc. Italy is challengingits European partners’ rules on budget deficits, and is undergoing a politicalcrisis of its own as its ruling populist alliance falls apart. And Japan is inthe middle of a new Cold War with a fellow liberal democracy and US ally,South Korea.

Thus, for the first time in decades, the G-7 broke up without a joint com-munique. This was planned in advance by the hosts, President EmmanuelMacron’s France; Mr Macron had said that “nobody reads communiquesanyway” except to try and figure out where disagreements had been paperedover. It was perhaps a wise change to avoid incidents such as the one thathappened after last year’s meeting, when Mr Trump didn’t even wait to gethome to repudiate the communique, but did so by tweeting from Air ForceOne on his way out of Canada. Yet it is also a marker of an apparent loss ofpurpose for the G-7, which can no longer fulfil the need for which it was setup during the oil crises of the 1970s: To ensure the industrialised world speakswith one voice. Of course, the “industrialised world” is itself much largerthan it was then, reducing the G-7’s relevance further.

The G-7 itself is not yet useless. For one, it represents a way of ensuringcollective pressure can be put on Mr Trump by other countries. The Americanpresident relishes such conflict, but is also vulnerable to personal diplomacy:More has been achieved on Iran in the past two days than in the year prior.

The problem perhaps is that the G-7 lacks the institutional strength tocreate and provide sustainable solutions that mean summits are about morethan the disagreements of the moment. The G-20, in contrast, has a secretariatand working groups that allow for joint policy to evolve over successive sum-mits and even if leaders change. As the other G-7 leaders prepare to be hostedby Mr Trump in the 2020 summit, it would perhaps be appropriate for themto ask if that is something worth emulating.

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8 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS MUMBAI | WEDNESDAY, 28 AUGUST …€¦ · Bharti Airtel say its strategy has...

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