72317971 Freemark Abbey Winery Case Study
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DECISION MAKING CASE
Transcript of 72317971 Freemark Abbey Winery Case Study
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Decision Analysis Case Study FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY Khurram Masoods sectionHLCC Consulting Inc.Julian HongNicolas Liao Alan Chen Cheng-Chieh Chao
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Decision BasisInformationProbability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level, wine price, reputation value, detector accuracy, spores effectiveness, immigration lawMr. Jaegers AlternativesHarvest now or laterUse detector or notBuy spores or notSell in bottle or bulk Mr. Jaegers PreferencesPrefers more money than lessCares about reputationUncertaintiesProbability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level
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Decision Diagram
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Decision Tree
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Delay the harvest and buy spores, but at a probability of rain greater than 45%, use the detector
Chart3
342006895039449332003695035371
342006670039278332003870035542
342006445039107332004045035713
342006220038936332004220035884
342005995038765332004395036055
342005770038594332004570036226
342005545038423332004745036397
342005320038252332004920036568
342005095038081332005095036739
342004870037910332005270036910
342004645037739332005445037081
342004420037568332005620037252
342004195037397332005795037423
342003970037226332005970037594
342003745037055332006145037765
342003520036884332006320037936
342003295036713332006495038107
342003070036542332006670038278
342002845036371332006845038449
342002620036200332007020038620
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of Rain
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of Rain
Parameters
Decision Set123456123456
Note: Tree v1 is complete for all variables and assuming risk-neutral. Tree v2 assumes 1 for both spores and detector effectiveness and risk-neutrality. Tree v3 is same as v2 except u(x) is based one risk odds and u-values for each bottle. Tree v4 is sameTesting V2No Detector, Harvest Now,No Detector, Harvest Later, SporesNo Detector, Harvest Later, No SporesDetector, Harvest NowDetector, Harvest Later, SporesDetector, Harvest Later, No SporesMax U-valueDecision SetDescriptionNo Detector, Harvest NowNo Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy SporesNo Detector, Delay Harvest, No SporesUse Detector, Harvest NowUse Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy SporesUse Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
UncertaintiesPercentageUse Tree v2p_rain34200p_rain47350p_rain37807.4p_rain33200p_rain53750p_rain37012.6p_rain
Prob of Rain0.530.05342000.05689500.05394490.05332000.05369500.05353710.05689502No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Prob of Mold Growing0.40.10342000.10667000.10392780.10332000.10387000.10355420.10667002No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Prob of Low Acidity0.20.15342000.15644500.15391070.15332000.15404500.15357130.15644502No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Prob of Sugar > 25%0.50.20342000.20622000.20389360.20332000.20422000.20358840.20622002No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Prob of Immigration Laws0.10.25342000.25599500.25387650.25332000.25439500.25360550.25599502No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Risk Odds1.00001160.30342000.30577000.30385940.30332000.30457000.30362260.30577002No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
a10.35342000.35554500.35384230.35332000.35474500.35363970.35554502No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
b-10.40342000.40532000.40382520.40332000.40492000.40365680.40532002No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.45342000.45509500.45380810.45332000.45509500.45367390.45509502No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Random Stuff0.50342000.50487000.50379100.50332000.50527000.50369100.50527005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Prob of Mold with Spores10.55342000.55464500.55377390.55332000.55544500.55370810.55544505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Cost of Spores-$10,000.000.60342000.60442000.60375680.60332000.60562000.60372520.60562005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Detector Accuracy0.80.65342000.65419500.65373970.65332000.65579500.65374230.65579505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Cost of Detector-$1,000.000.70342000.70397000.70372260.70332000.70597000.70375940.70597005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Immigration Fine-$10,000.000.75342000.75374500.75370550.75332000.75614500.75377650.75614505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Good Reputation$15,000.000.80342000.80352000.80368840.80332000.80632000.80379360.80632005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Bad Reputation-$25,000.000.85342000.85329500.85367130.85332000.85649500.85381070.85649505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Bulk Wine Rate0.50.90342000.90307000.90365420.90332000.90667000.90382780.90667005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Vol Increase / rain1.0750.95342000.95284500.95363710.95332000.95684500.95384490.95684505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Vol Decrease / mold0.71.00342001.00262001.00362001.00332001.00702001.00386201.00702005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Revenue with no spores/detectors
Harvest Now$34,200.00Use Tree v2p_mold34200p_mold47350p_mold37807.4p_mold33200p_mold53750p_mold37012.6p_mold
Good Mold$82,200.000.05342000.05473500.0526407.60.05332000.05537500.0524157.50.05537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Thin Wine$800.000.10342000.10473500.1028036.10.10332000.10537500.1025993.90.10537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Bulk Wine$12,900.000.15342000.15473500.1529664.70.15332000.15537500.1527830.40.15537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Low Acidity$30,000.000.20342000.20473500.2031293.20.20332000.20537500.2029666.80.20537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
> 25% sugar$42,000.000.25342000.25473500.2532921.80.25332000.25537500.2531503.30.25537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
< 25% sugar$36,000.000.30342000.30473500.3034550.30.30332000.30537500.3033339.70.30537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.35342000.35473500.3536178.90.35332000.35537500.3535176.20.35537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Wine Bottle Specs0.40342000.40473500.4037807.40.40332000.40537500.4037012.60.40537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
# cases10000.45342000.45473500.4539436.00.45332000.45537500.4538849.10.45537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
# bottles / case120.50342000.50473500.5041064.50.50332000.50537500.5040685.50.50537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Harvest Early Wine$2.850.55342000.55473500.5542693.10.55332000.55537500.5542522.00.55537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Moldy (Good) Wine bottle$8.000.60342000.60473500.6044321.60.60332000.60537500.6044358.40.60537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Thin Wine$2.000.65342000.65473500.6545950.20.65332000.65537500.6546194.90.65537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Bulk Wine$1.000.70342000.70473500.7047578.70.70332000.70537500.7048031.30.70537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Low Acid Wine$2.500.75342000.75473500.7549207.30.75332000.75537500.7549867.80.75537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Good Sugar$3.500.80342000.80473500.8050835.80.80332000.80537500.8051704.20.80537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Decent Sugar$3.000.85342000.85473500.8552464.40.85332000.85537500.8553540.70.85537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.90473500.9054092.90.90332000.90537500.9055377.10.9055377.16Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Detector Accuracy Measures0.95342000.95473500.9555721.50.95332000.95537500.9557213.60.9557213.556Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Says "Rain"0.5181.00342001.00473501.0057350.01.00332001.00537501.0059050.01.00590506Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Says "No Rain"0.482112233445566
Rain given "Rain"0.819
No Rain given "Rain"0.181Use Tree v2p_lowacid34200p_lowacid47350p_lowacid37807.4p_lowacid33200p_lowacid53750p_lowacid37012.6p_lowacid
Rain given "No Rain"0.2200.05342000.0548065.50.05385230.05332000.0554384.50.05376470.0554384.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Rain given "No Rain"0.7800.10342000.10478270.10382840.10332000.10541730.10374360.10541735Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.15342000.1547588.50.15380460.15332000.1553961.50.15372240.1553961.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.20342000.20473500.20378070.20332000.20537500.20370130.20537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.25342000.2547111.50.25375690.25332000.2553538.50.25368010.2553538.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.30342000.30468730.30373300.30332000.30533270.30365900.30533275Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.35342000.3546634.50.35370920.35332000.3553115.50.35363780.3553115.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.40342000.40463960.40368530.40332000.40529040.40361670.40529045Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.45342000.4546157.50.45366150.45332000.4552692.50.45359550.4552692.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.50342000.50459190.50363760.50332000.50524810.50357440.50524815Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.55342000.5545680.50.55361380.55332000.5552269.50.55355320.5552269.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.60342000.60454420.60358990.60332000.60520580.60353210.60520585Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.65342000.6545203.50.65356610.65332000.6551846.50.65351090.6551846.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.70342000.70449650.70354220.70332000.70516350.70348980.70516355Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.75342000.7544726.50.75351840.75332000.7551423.50.75346860.7551423.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.80342000.80444880.80349450.80332000.80512120.80344750.80512125Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.85342000.8544249.50.85347070.85332000.8551000.50.85342630.8551000.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.90440110.90344680.90332000.90507890.90340520.90507895Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.95342000.9543772.50.95342300.95332000.9550577.50.95338400.9550577.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.00342001.00435341.00339911.00332001.00503661.00336291.00503665Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Use Tree v2p_goodsugar34200p_goodsugar47350p_goodsugar37807.4p_goodsugar33200p_goodsugar53750p_goodsugar37012.6p_goodsugar
0.05342000.05473500.05376930.05332000.0552734.80.05359970.0552734.85Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.10342000.10473500.10377060.10332000.1052847.60.10361100.1052847.65Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.15342000.15473500.15377180.15332000.1552960.40.15362230.1552960.45Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.20342000.20473500.20377310.20332000.2053073.20.20363360.2053073.25Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.25342000.25473500.25377440.25332000.25531860.25364490.25531865Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.30342000.30473500.30377570.30332000.3053298.80.30365610.3053298.85Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.35342000.35473500.35377690.35332000.3553411.60.35366740.3553411.65Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.40342000.40473500.40377820.40332000.4053524.40.40367870.4053524.45Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.45342000.45473500.45377950.45332000.4553637.20.45369000.4553637.25Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.50342000.50473500.50378070.50332000.50537500.50370130.50537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.55342000.55473500.55378200.55332000.5553862.80.55371250.5553862.85Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.60342000.60473500.60378330.60332000.6053975.60.60372380.6053975.65Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.65342000.65473500.65378460.65332000.6554088.40.65373510.6554088.45Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.70342000.70473500.70378580.70332000.7054201.20.70374640.7054201.25Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.75342000.75473500.75378710.75332000.75543140.75375770.75543145Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.80342000.80473500.80378840.80332000.8054426.80.80376890.8054426.85Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.85342000.85473500.85378960.85332000.8554539.60.85378020.8554539.65Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.90473500.90379090.90332000.9054652.40.90379150.9054652.45Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.95342000.95473500.95379220.95332000.9554765.20.95380280.9554765.25Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.00342001.00473501.00379351.00332001.00548781.00381411.00548785Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Use Tree v2p_immilaw34200p_immilaw47350p_immilaw37807.4p_immilaw33200p_immilaw53750p_immilaw37012.6p_immilaw
0.05342000.05478500.05383070.05332000.05542500.05375130.05542505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.10342000.10473500.10378070.10332000.10537500.10370130.10537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.15342000.15468500.15373070.15332000.15532500.15365130.15532505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.20342000.20463500.20368070.20332000.20527500.20360130.20527505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.25342000.25458500.25363070.25332000.25522500.25355130.25522505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.30342000.30453500.30358070.30332000.30517500.30350130.30517505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.35342000.35448500.35353070.35332000.35512500.35345130.35512505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.40342000.40443500.40348070.40332000.40507500.40340130.40507505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.45342000.45438500.45343070.45332000.45502500.45335130.45502505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.50342000.50433500.50338070.50332000.50497500.50330130.50497505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.55342000.55428500.55333070.55332000.55492500.55325130.55492505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.60342000.60423500.60328070.60332000.60487500.60320130.60487505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.65342000.65418500.65323070.65332000.65482500.65315130.65482505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.70342000.70413500.70318070.70332000.70477500.70310130.70477505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.75342000.75408500.75313070.75332000.75472500.75305130.75472505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.80342000.80403500.80308070.80332000.80467500.80300130.80467505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.85342000.85398500.85303070.85332000.85462500.85295130.85462505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.90393500.90298070.90332000.90457500.90290130.90457505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.95342000.95388500.95293070.95332000.95452500.95285130.95452505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.00342001.00383501.00288071.00332001.00447501.00280131.00447505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Use Tree v3PER BOTTLE U-VALUE
gammarisk odds0.0000330593risk odds0.00005risk odds0.00004risk odds0.00003risk odds0.0000519565risk odds0.00004
0.051.050.132811.050.175321.050.141661.050.129191.050.19839257011.050.13832
0.101.110.247991.110.313771.110.256571.110.241691.110.35376742421.110.24995
0.151.160.347861.160.423981.160.350741.160.339661.160.47605685911.160.34105
0.201.220.434471.220.512451.220.428691.220.424971.220.57280503181.220.41622
0.251.280.509581.280.584091.280.493831.280.499261.280.64975659451.280.47891
0.301.350.574721.350.642601.350.548741.350.563951.350.71129807371.350.53170
0.351.420.631201.420.690821.420.595431.420.620281.420.7607891581.420.57659
0.401.490.680181.490.730911.490.635421.490.669341.490.80081163071.490.61510
0.451.570.722661.570.764511.570.669911.570.712061.570.83335665261.570.64839
0.501.650.759491.650.792911.650.699871.650.749261.650.859965861.650.67740
0.551.730.791431.730.817091.730.726041.730.781651.730.88183783291.730.70284
0.601.820.819131.820.837831.820.749011.820.809861.820.89990857181.820.72529
0.651.920.843161.920.855731.920.769301.920.834431.920.91491244741.920.74522
0.702.010.863992.010.871272.010.787282.010.855822.010.92742845962.010.76299
0.752.120.882052.120.884842.120.803302.120.874442.120.93791543032.120.77892
0.802.230.897722.230.896732.230.817632.230.890662.230.94673884812.230.79327
0.852.340.911302.340.907212.340.830482.340.904792.340.9541914032.340.80623
0.902.460.923082.460.916472.460.842062.460.917092.460.96050874472.460.81799
0.952.590.933302.590.924682.590.852532.590.927802.590.96588161622.590.82869
1.002.720.942162.720.931992.720.862012.720.937132.720.97046523052.720.83846
112233445566
TOTAL REVENUE
gammarisk odds34200.0000000354risk odds47349.75risk odds37807.13risk odds33200.00risk odds53749.84risk odds37012.29gamma
0.051.0534200.001.0546261.341.0536661.901.0533200.001.0553072.711.0535728.740.0553072.715Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.101.1134200.001.1145185.081.1135577.391.1133200.001.1152391.501.1134513.720.1052391.505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.151.1634200.001.1644129.601.1634553.711.1633200.001.1651709.771.1633369.060.1551709.775Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.201.2234200.001.2243102.341.2233589.411.2233200.001.2251030.891.2232294.360.2051030.895Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.251.2834200.001.2842109.591.2832682.081.2833200.001.2850358.091.2831287.710.2550358.095Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.301.3534200.001.3541156.291.3531828.691.3533200.001.3549694.421.3530346.120.3049694.425Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.351.4234200.001.4240246.021.4231025.821.4233200.001.4249042.631.4229465.900.3549042.635Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.401.4934200.001.4939381.091.4930269.931.4933200.001.4948405.131.4928642.970.4048405.135Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.451.5734200.001.5738562.591.5729557.451.5733200.001.5747783.981.5727873.090.4547783.985Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.501.6534200.001.6537790.601.6528884.951.6533200.001.6547180.861.6527152.080.5047180.865Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.551.7334200.001.7337064.371.7328249.211.7333200.001.7346597.031.7326475.900.5546597.035Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.601.8234200.001.8236382.491.8227647.201.8233200.001.8246033.421.8225840.760.6046033.425Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.651.9234200.001.9235743.081.9227076.201.9233200.001.9245490.611.9225243.150.6545490.615Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.702.0134200.002.0135143.922.0126533.712.0133200.002.0144968.842.0124679.860.7044968.845Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.752.1234200.002.1234582.602.1226017.492.1233200.002.1244468.122.1224147.980.7544468.125Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.802.2334200.002.2334056.622.2325525.532.2333200.002.2343988.222.2323644.860.8043988.225Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.852.3434200.002.3433563.452.3425056.032.3433200.002.3443528.712.3423168.160.8543528.715Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.902.4634200.002.4633100.642.4624607.392.4633200.002.4643089.012.4622715.750.9043089.015Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.952.5934200.002.5932665.792.5924178.162.5933200.002.5942668.452.5922285.730.9542668.455Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.002.7234200.002.7232256.632.7223767.052.7233200.002.7242266.252.7221876.391.0042266.255Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Use Tree v2Max Rev.53750.0
DS5Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
p_mold
50.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.550.60.650.70.750.80.850.90.951
p_rain0.0522222222222222223333
0.1022222222222222223333
0.1522222222222222223333
0.2022222222222222223333
0.2522222222222222223333
0.3022222222222222233333
0.3522222222222222233333
0.4022222222222222233333
0.4522222222222222333333
0.5055555555555555553333
0.5555555555555555555666
0.6055555555555555555666
0.6555555555555555555666
0.7055555555555555555666
0.7555555555555555555666
0.8055555555555555555666
0.8555555555555555555666
0.9055555555555555555666
0.9555555555555555555666
1.0055555555555555555666
Use Tree v2spores_eff34200spores_eff47350spores_eff37807.4spores_eff33200spores_eff53750spores_eff37012.6spores_eff
0.05342000.0516407.550.05378070.05332000.0518857.450.05370130.0537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.10342000.1018036.100.10378070.10332000.1020693.900.10370130.1037807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.15342000.1519664.650.15378070.15332000.1522530.350.15370130.1537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.20342000.2021293.200.20378070.20332000.2024366.800.20370130.2037807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.25342000.2522921.750.25378070.25332000.2526203.250.25370130.2537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.30342000.3024550.300.30378070.30332000.3028039.700.30370130.3037807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.35342000.3526178.850.35378070.35332000.3529876.150.35370130.3537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.40342000.4027807.400.40378070.40332000.4031712.600.40370130.4037807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.45342000.4529435.950.45378070.45332000.4533549.050.45370130.4537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.50342000.5031064.500.50378070.50332000.5035385.500.50370130.5037807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.55342000.5532693.050.55378070.55332000.5537221.950.55370130.5537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.60342000.6034321.600.60378070.60332000.6039058.400.60370130.6039058.405Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.65342000.6535950.150.65378070.65332000.6540894.850.65370130.6540894.855Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.70342000.7037578.700.70378070.70332000.7042731.300.70370130.7042731.305Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.75342000.7539207.250.75378070.75332000.7544567.750.75370130.7544567.755Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.80342000.8040835.800.80378070.80332000.8046404.200.80370130.8046404.205Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.85342000.8542464.350.85378070.85332000.8548240.650.85370130.8548240.655Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.9044092.900.90378070.90332000.9050077.100.90370130.9050077.105Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.95342000.9545721.450.95378070.95332000.9551913.550.95370130.9551913.555Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.00342001.0047350.001.00378071.00332001.0053750.001.00370131.0053750.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Use Tree v1detector_accu34200detector_accu47350detector_accu37807.4detector_accu33200detector_accu49050detector_accu35952.1161825726detector_accu
0.05342000.05473500.05378070.05332000.05490500.05384670.0549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.10342000.10473500.10378070.10332000.10490500.10383130.1049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.15342000.15473500.15378070.15332000.15490500.15381570.1549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.20342000.20473500.20378070.20332000.20490500.20379990.2049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.25342000.25473500.25378070.25332000.25490500.25378400.2549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.30342000.30473500.30378070.30332000.30490500.30376780.3049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.35342000.35473500.35378070.35332000.35490500.35375150.3549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.40342000.40473500.40378070.40332000.40490500.40373490.4049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.45342000.45473500.45378070.45332000.45490500.45371820.4549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.50342000.50473500.50378070.50332000.50490500.50370130.5049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.55342000.55473500.55378070.55332000.55490500.55368410.5549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.60342000.60473500.60378070.60332000.60490500.60366680.6049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.65342000.65473500.65378070.65332000.65490500.65364920.6549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.70342000.70473500.70378070.70332000.70490500.70363140.7049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.75342000.75473500.75378070.75332000.75490500.75361340.7549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.80342000.80473500.80378070.80332000.80490500.80359520.8049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.85342000.85473500.85378070.85332000.85490500.85357680.8549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.90473500.90378070.90332000.90490500.90355810.9049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.95342000.95473500.95378070.95332000.95490500.95353920.9549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.00342001.00473501.00378071.00332001.00490501.00352001.0049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Sensitivity Graphs
123456
No Detector, Harvest NowNo Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy SporesNo Detector, Delay Harvest, No SporesUse Detector, Harvest NowUse Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy SporesUse Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
at p_rain = 0.618, the optimal decision set changes from 2 to 5
at p_mold = 0.840, the optimal decision set changes from 2 to 3
3, 6x
415824580.5911495911
2,3
32571225710.6929784164
2,6
25029367290.6814506248
DS 6 surpass DS 2 before DS 3 does.
for all p_lowacid, the optimal decision set is 5
for all p_goodsugar, the optimal decision set is 5
for all p_immilawpass, the optimal decision set is 5
at gamma=0.785, the optimal decision set changes from 2 to 1
In above diagram, at low probabilities for both rain and mold, the optimal decision set is 2 (blue).
At low probabilities of mold, and concentrated at high probabilities of rain, the optimal decision set is 5 (red).
At high probabilities of mold, and concentrated at low probabilities of rain, the optimal decision set is 3 (yellow).
At high probabilities for both rain and mold, the optimal decision set is 6 (aqua).
at p=0.707, the optimal decision set changes from 3 to 2
regardless of detector accuracy, mr. jaeger shoud always use detector, spores, and harvest later.
Sensitivity Graphs
342004735026407.55332005375024157.45
342004735028036.1332005375025993.9
342004735029664.65332005375027830.35
342004735031293.2332005375029666.8
342004735032921.75332005375031503.25
342004735034550.3332005375033339.7
342004735036178.85332005375035176.15
342004735037807.4332005375037012.6
342004735039435.95332005375038849.05
342004735041064.5332005375040685.5
342004735042693.05332005375042521.95
342004735044321.6332005375044358.4
342004735045950.15332005375046194.85
342004735047578.7332005375048031.3
342004735049207.25332005375049867.75
342004735050835.8332005375051704.2
342004735052464.35332005375053540.65
342004735054092.9332005375055377.1
342004735055721.45332005375057213.55
342004735057350332005375059050
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of Mold
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of Mold
Tree v1
342006895039449332003695035371
342006670039278332003870035542
342006445039107332004045035713
342006220038936332004220035884
342005995038765332004395036055
342005770038594332004570036226
342005545038423332004745036397
342005320038252332004920036568
342005095038081332005095036739
342004870037910332005270036910
342004645037739332005445037081
342004420037568332005620037252
342004195037397332005795037423
342003970037226332005970037594
342003745037055332006145037765
342003520036884332006320037936
342003295036713332006495038107
342003070036542332006670038278
342002845036371332006845038449
342002620036200332007020038620
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of Rain
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of Rain
Tree v2
3420048065.538522.93320054384.537647.1
342004782738284.4332005417337435.6
3420047588.538045.93320053961.537224.1
342004735037807.4332005375037012.6
3420047111.537568.93320053538.536801.1
342004687337330.4332005332736589.6
3420046634.537091.93320053115.536378.1
342004639636853.4332005290436166.6
3420046157.536614.93320052692.535955.1
342004591936376.4332005248135743.6
3420045680.536137.93320052269.535532.1
342004544235899.4332005205835320.6
3420045203.535660.93320051846.535109.1
342004496535422.4332005163534897.6
3420044726.535183.93320051423.534686.1
342004448834945.4332005121234474.6
3420044249.534706.93320051000.534263.1
342004401134468.4332005078934051.6
3420043772.534229.93320050577.533840.1
342004353433991.4332005036633628.6
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of Low Acidity
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of Low Acidity
Tree v3 (Var. Risk Odds)
342004735037692.923320052734.835997.4
342004735037705.643320052847.636110.2
342004735037718.363320052960.436223
342004735037731.083320053073.236335.8
342004735037743.8332005318636448.6
342004735037756.523320053298.836561.4
342004735037769.243320053411.636674.2
342004735037781.963320053524.436787
342004735037794.683320053637.236899.8
342004735037807.4332005375037012.6
342004735037820.123320053862.837125.4
342004735037832.843320053975.637238.2
342004735037845.563320054088.437351
342004735037858.283320054201.237463.8
342004735037871332005431437576.6
342004735037883.723320054426.837689.4
342004735037896.443320054539.637802.2
342004735037909.163320054652.437915
342004735037921.883320054765.238027.8
342004735037934.6332005487838140.6
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of >=25% Sugar
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of >=25% Sugar
Tree v4 (Var. Risk Odds)
342004785038307.4332005425037512.6
342004735037807.4332005375037012.6
342004685037307.4332005325036512.6
342004635036807.4332005275036012.6
342004585036307.4332005225035512.6
342004535035807.4332005175035012.6
342004485035307.4332005125034512.6
342004435034807.4332005075034012.6
342004385034307.4332005025033512.6
342004335033807.4332004975033012.6
342004285033307.4332004925032512.6
342004235032807.4332004875032012.6
342004185032307.4332004825031512.6
342004135031807.4332004775031012.6
342004085031307.4332004725030512.6
342004035030807.4332004675030012.6
342003985030307.4332004625029512.6
342003935029807.4332004575029012.6
342003885029307.4332004525028512.6
342003835028807.4332004475028012.6
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of Immi. Law Pass
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of Immi. Law Pass
3420046261.339190590136661.89543986053320053072.707160582535728.7362881907
3420045185.078130455335577.38554410383320052391.497858176234513.7152848782
3420044129.596302884934553.70703502113320051709.768824129533369.0568826677
3420043102.343137860733589.40586534053320051030.886195971132294.3562728555
3420042109.589553045232682.07864043013320050358.092251373831287.7070596405
3420041156.285778976731828.68654828953320049694.42080121530346.1205079244
3420040246.023944209431025.82310128853320049042.62623646829465.9027335954
3420039381.090932763130269.92822021163320048405.129672936328642.9694801903
3420038562.589171665329557.44923761923320047783.983850840827873.0922810591
3420037790.600481671328884.95429321413320047180.856700483827152.0793124527
3420037064.369867762728249.20593847473320046597.032009614526475.8995236757
3420036382.490496919727647.20332805153320046033.424566647925840.7607212652
3420035743.076506843327076.20085079993320045490.606555910725243.1523006103
3420035143.91550911326533.70997969073320044968.841814843524679.862187728
3420034582.596995203126017.48985857173320044468.124742610424147.975934714
3420034056.61605984425525.5309109483320043988.221064650723644.8642158079
3420033563.453954297125056.03466277663320043528.708199102923168.1634199098
3420033100.638158867624607.39206088913320043089.013547019722715.7527265596
3420032665.785157382124178.16184443283320042668.449572336822285.7300071788
3420032256.629132377623767.04997153273320042266.245008853221876.3880931282
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Risk Aversion Coefficient (gamma)
Revenue
Sensitivity to Risk Aversion Coefficient
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222355555555555
22222333355555555555
33333333335555555555
33333333336666666666
33333333336666666666
33333333336666666666
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
Probability of Rain
Decision Set Number
Probabilty of Mold
Optimal Decision Set(p_rain, p_mold)
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222355555555555
22222333355555555555
33333333335555555555
33333333336666666666
33333333336666666666
33333333336666666666
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
Probability of Rain
Probabilty of Mold
Optimal Decision Set(p_rain, p_mold)
3420016407.5537807.43320018857.4537012.6
3420018036.137807.43320020693.937012.6
3420019664.6537807.43320022530.3537012.6
3420021293.237807.43320024366.837012.6
3420022921.7537807.43320026203.2537012.6
3420024550.337807.43320028039.737012.6
3420026178.8537807.43320029876.1537012.6
3420027807.437807.43320031712.637012.6
3420029435.9537807.43320033549.0537012.6
3420031064.537807.43320035385.537012.6
3420032693.0537807.43320037221.9537012.6
3420034321.637807.43320039058.437012.6
3420035950.1537807.43320040894.8537012.6
3420037578.737807.43320042731.337012.6
3420039207.2537807.43320044567.7537012.6
3420040835.837807.43320046404.237012.6
3420042464.3537807.43320048240.6537012.6
3420044092.937807.43320050077.137012.6
3420045721.4537807.43320051913.5537012.6
342004735037807.4332005375037012.6
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Effective Rate of Spores
Revenue
Sensitivity to Effective Rate of Spores
342004735037807.4332004905038467.495256167
342004735037807.4332004905038313.2442748092
342004735037807.4332004905038157.216890595
342004735037807.4332004905037999.3822393822
342004735037807.4332004905037839.7087378641
342004735037807.4332004905037678.1640625
342004735037807.4332004905037514.7151277014
342004735037807.4332004905037349.3280632411
342004735037807.4332004905037181.9681908549
342004735037807.4332004905037012.6
342004735037807.4332004905036841.1871227364
342004735037807.4332004905036667.6923076923
342004735037807.4332004905036492.0773930754
342004735037807.4332004905036314.3032786885
342004735037807.4332004905036134.3298969072
342004735037807.4332004905035952.1161825726
342004735037807.4332004905035767.6200417537
342004735037807.4332004905035580.7983193277
342004735037807.4332004905035391.6067653277
342004735037807.4332004905035200
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Detector Accuracy
Revenue
Sensitivity to Detector Accuracy
Value MeasureU-Value
0Harvest Now
3420034200
0.2Low Acidity
1000010000
0.1Immi. Law Pass
0.5>=25% Sugar
17200172002200022000
0.8Normal Acidity
19000190000.5=25% Sugar
27200272003200032000
0.8Normal Acidity
0No Detector29000290000.5>>Spores2600026000
4735047350
4735047350
1Mold
6220062200
0.1Immi. Law Pass
>>>Sell in Bulk
6220062200-7100-7100
0No Mold
-7100-71000Sell in Cases
0.47Rain-19200-19200
7120071200
1Mold
7220072200
0.9Immi. Law Fail
>>>Sell in Bulk
722007220029002900
0No Mold
290029000Sell in Cases
>>>Harvest Later-9200-9200
4735047350
0.2Low Acidity
2000020000
0.1Immi. Law Pass
0.5>=25% Sugar
27200272003200032000
0.8Normal Acidity
29000290000.5=25% Sugar
37200372004200042000
0.8Normal Acidity
39000390000.5>>Sell in Bulk
306203062029002900
0.6No Mold
290029000Sell in Cases
0.47Rain-9200-9200
3962039620
0.4Mold
8220082200
0.9Immi. Law Fail
>>>Sell in Bulk
40620406201290012900
0.6No Mold
12900129000Sell in Cases
800800
0Harvest Now
49462.523320033200
49462.52
1Mold
6120061200
0.1Immi. Law Pass
>>>Sell in Bulk
6120061200-8100-8100
0No Mold
-8100-81000Sell in Cases
0.819Rain-20200-20200
7020070200
1Mold
7120071200
0.9Immi. Law Fail
>>>Sell in Bulk
712007120019001900
0No Mold
0.518Says Rain190019000Sell in Cases
>>>Spores-10200-10200
62033.976833976862033.9768339768
62033.976833976862033.9768339768
0.2Low Acidity
90009000
0.1Immi. Law Pass
0.5>=25% Sugar
16200162002100021000
0.8Normal Acidity
18000180000.5=25% Sugar
26200262003100031000
0.8Normal Acidity
28000280000.5>>Harvest Later2500025000
62033.976833976862033.9768339768
0.4Mold
7120071200
0.1Immi. Law Pass
>>>Sell in Bulk
296202962019001900
0.6No Mold
190019000Sell in Cases
0.220Rain-10200-10200
3862038620
0.4Mold
8120081200
0.9Immi. Law Fail
>>>Sell in Bulk
39620396201190011900
0.6No Mold
11900119000Sell in Cases
0No Spores-200-200
>>>Detector
35952.116182572635952.1161825726
49462.5249462.520.2Low Acidity
1900019000
0.1Immi. Law Pass
0.5>=25% Sugar
26200262003100031000
0.8Normal Acidity
28000280000.5Sell in Bulk
6120061200-8100-8100
0No Mold
-8100-81000Sell in Cases
0Rain-20200-20200
7020070200
1Mold
7120071200
0.9Immi. Law Fail
>>>Sell in Bulk
712007120019001900
0No Mold
0.482Says No Rain190019000Sell in Cases
0Spores-10200-10200
35952.116182572635952.1161825726
35096.26556016635096.265560166
0.2Low Acidity
90009000
0.1Immi. Law Pass
0.5>=25% Sugar
16200162002100021000
0.8Normal Acidity
18000180000.5=25% Sugar
26200262003100031000
0.8Normal Acidity
28000280000.5>>Harvest Later2500025000
35952.116182572635952.1161825726
0.4Mold
7120071200
0.1Immi. Law Pass
>>>Sell in Bulk
296202962019001900
0.6No Mold
190019000Sell in Cases
0.2199170124Rain-10200-10200
3862038620
0.4Mold
8120081200
0.9Immi. Law Fail
>>>Sell in Bulk
39620396201190011900
0.6No Mold
11900119000Sell in Cases
>>>No Spores-200-200
35952.116182572635952.1161825726
0.2Low Acidity
1900019000
0.1Immi. Law Pass
0.5>=25% Sugar
26200262003100031000
0.8Normal Acidity
28000280000.5=25% Sugar
36200362004100041000
0.8Normal Acidity
38000380000.5=25% Sugar
17200172002200022000
0.8Normal Acidity
19000190000.5=25% Sugar
27200272003200032000
0.8Normal Acidity
0No Detector29000290000.5>>Spores2600026000
4735047350
4735047350
1Mold
6220062200
0.1Immi. Law Pass
>>>Sell in Bulk
6220062200-7100-7100
0No Mold
-7100-71000Sell in Cases
0.47Rain-19200-19200
7120071200
1Mold
7220072200
0.9Immi. Law Fail
>>>Sell in Bulk
722007220029002900
0No Mold
290029000Sell in Cases
>>>Harvest Later-9200-9200
4735047350
0.2Low Acidity
2000020000
0.1Immi. Law Pass
0.5>=25% Sugar
27200272003200032000
0.8Normal Acidity
29000290000.5=25% Sugar
37200372004200042000
0.8Normal Acidity
39000390000.5>>Sell in Bulk
306203062029002900
537500.6No Mold
53750
290029000Sell in Cases
0.47Rain-9200-9200
3962039620
0.4Mold
8220082200
0.9Immi. Law Fail
>>>Sell in Bulk
40620406201290012900
0.6No Mold
12900129000Sell in Cases
800800
0Harvest Now
3320033200
1Mold
6120061200
0.1Immi. Law Pass
>>>Sell in Bulk
6120061200-8100-8100
0No Mold
0.53Rain-8100-81000Sell in Cases
>>>Spores-20200-20200
7020070200
7020070200
1Mold
7120071200
0.9Immi. Law Fail
>>>Sell in Bulk
712007120019001900
0No Mold
190019000Sell in Cases
>>>Harvest Later-10200-10200
7020070200
0.4Mold
7120071200
0.1Immi. Law Pass
>>>Sell in Bulk
296202962019001900
0.6No Mold
>>>Detector
190019000Sell in Cases
53750537500No Spores-10200-10200
3862038620
0.4Mold
8120081200
0.9Immi. Law Fail
>>>Sell in Bulk
39620396201190011900
0.6No Mold
11900119000Sell in Cases
-200-200
0Harvest Now
3320033200
0.2Low Acidity
1900019000
0.47No Rain
0.1Immi. Law Pass
35200352000.5>=25% Sugar
26200262003100031000
0.8Normal Acidity
28000280000.5>>Harvest Later>>>No Spores2500025000
35200352003520035200
0.2Low Acidity
2900029000
0.9Immi. Law Pass
0.5>=25% Sugar
36200362004100041000
0.8Normal Acidity
38000380000.5=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.00001662640.0000166264220000.0000213
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0.00001836640.00001836640.5=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.00002629280.0000262928320000.0000309
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0No Detector0.00002803280.00002803280.5>>Spores260000.0000251
0.00004577010.00004580.0000000
0.00004577010.00004577010.0000000
1Mold0.0000000
622000.0000601
0.0000000
0.1Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.00006012450.0000601245-7100-0.0000069
0No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
-0.0000068633-0.00000690Sell in Cases0.0000000
0.47Rain-19200-0.0000186
0.0000000
0.00006882390.00006882390.0000000
1Mold0.0000000
722000.0000698
0.0000000
0.9Immi. Law Fail0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.00006979050.000069790529000.0000028
0No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
0.00000280330.00000280Sell in Cases0.0000000
>>>Harvest Later-9200-0.0000089
0.0000000
0.00004577010.00004577010.0000000
0.2Low Acidity0.0000000
200000.0000193
0.0000000
0.1Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
0.5>=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.00002629280.0000262928320000.0000309
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0.00002803280.00002803280.5=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.00003595910.0000359591420000.0000406
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0.00003769910.00003769910.5>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.00002959820.000029598229000.0000028
0.00005195650.6No Mold0.0000000
0.00005195650.0000000
0.00000280330.00000280Sell in Cases0.0000000
0.47Rain-9200-0.0000089
0.0000000
0.00003829780.00003829780.0000000
0.4Mold0.0000000
822000.0000795
0.0000000
0.9Immi. Law Fail0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.00003926450.0000392645129000.0000125
0.6No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
0.00001246980.00001246980Sell in Cases0.0000000
8000.0000008
0.0000000
0.0000000
0Harvest Now0.0000000
332000.0000321
0.0000000
0.0000000
1Mold0.0000000
612000.0000592
0.0000000
0.1Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.00005915790.0000591579-8100-0.0000078
0No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
0.53Rain-0.00000783-0.000007830Sell in Cases0.0000000
>>>Spores-20200-0.0000195
0.00006785730.00006785730.0000000
0.00006785730.00006785730.0000000
1Mold0.0000000
712000.0000688
0.0000000
0.9Immi. Law Fail0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.00006882390.000068823919000.0000018
0No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
0.00000183670.00000183670Sell in Cases0.0000000
>>>Harvest Later-10200-0.0000099
0.0000000
0.00006785730.00006785730.0000000
0.4Mold0.0000000
712000.0000688
0.0000000
0.1Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.00002863160.000028631619000.0000018
0.6No Mold0.0000000
>>>Detector0.0000000
0.00000183670.00000183670Sell in Cases0.0000000
0.00005195650.00005195650No Spores-10200-0.0000099
0.0000000
53749.84358314250.00003733120.00003733120.0000000
0.4Mold0.0000000
812000.0000785
0.0000000
0.9Immi. Law Fail0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.00003829780.0000382978119000.0000115
0.6No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
0.00001150320.00001150320Sell in Cases0.0000000
-200-0.0000002
0.0000000
0.0000000
0Harvest Now0.0000000
332000.0000321
0.0000000
0.0000000
0.2Low Acidity0.0000000
190000.0000184
0.47No Rain0.0000000
0.1Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
0.00003402590.00003402590.5>=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.00002532620.0000253262310000.0000300
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0.00002706610.00002706610.5>>Harvest Later>>>No Spores250000.0000242
0.0000000
0.00003402590.00003402590.00003402590.00003402590.0000000
0.2Low Acidity0.0000000
290000.0000280
0.0000000
0.9Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
0.5>=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.00003499250.0000349925410000.0000396
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0.00003673240.00003673240.5=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.17975709880.1797570988220000.2252373
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0.1973153290.1973153290.5=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.26959352790.2695935279320000.3100926
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0No Detector0.28522870750.28522870750.5>>Spores260000.2603648
0.40221265030.40221270.0000000
0.40221265030.40221265030.0000000
1Mold0.0000000
622000.5139850
0.0000000
0.1Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.51398501160.5139850116-7100-0.0858461
0No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
-0.0858461256-0.08584610Sell in Cases0.0000000
0.47Rain-19200-0.2494691
0.0000000
0.56189236430.56189236430.0000000
1Mold0.0000000
722000.5672154
0.0000000
0.9Immi. Law Fail0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.56721540350.567215403529000.0330803
0No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
0.03308027830.03308030Sell in Cases0.0000000
>>>Harvest Later-9200-0.1126220
0.0000000
0.40221265030.40221265030.0000000
0.2Low Acidity0.0000000
200000.2070528
0.0000000
0.1Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
0.5>=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.26959352790.2695935279320000.3100926
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0.28522870750.28522870750.5=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.34959069610.3495906961420000.3856541
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0.36351344550.36351344550.5>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.24673432840.246734328429000.0330803
0.4520310350.6No Mold0.0000000
0.4520310350.0000000
Total Rev.51856.910.03308027830.03308030Sell in Cases0.0000000
0.47Rain-9200-0.1126220
0.0000000
0.32098505130.32098505130.0000000
0.4Mold0.0000000
822000.6146158
0.0000000
0.9Immi. Law Fail0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.32923513160.3292351316129000.1389814
0.6No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
0.13898136560.13898136560Sell in Cases0.0000000
8000.0092370
0.0000000
0.0000000
0Harvest Now0.0000000
332000.3196295
0.0000000
0.0000000
1Mold0.0000000
612000.5083144
0.0000000
0.1Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.50831444490.5083144449-8100-0.0985152
0No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
0.53Rain-0.0985152058-0.09851520580Sell in Cases0.0000000
>>>Spores-20200-0.2640472
0.55678075540.55678075540.0000000
0.55678075540.55678075540.0000000
1Mold0.0000000
712000.5621659
0.0000000
0.9Immi. Law Fail0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.5621659010.56216590119000.0217988
0No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
0.02179876870.02179876870Sell in Cases0.0000000
>>>Harvest Later-10200-0.1256035
0.0000000
0.55678075540.55678075540.0000000
0.4Mold0.0000000
712000.5621659
0.0000000
0.1Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.23794562160.237945621619000.0217988
0.6No Mold0.0000000
>>>Detector0.0000000
0.02179876870.02179876870Sell in Cases0.0000000
0.4520310350.4520310350No Spores-10200-0.1256035
0.0000000
51856.90653202220.31306266280.31306266280.0000000
0.4Mold0.0000000
812000.6101193
0.0000000
0.9Immi. Law Fail0.0000000
>>>Sell in Bulk0.0000000
0.32140900070.3214090007119000.1289355
0.6No Mold0.0000000
0.0000000
0.12893545410.12893545410Sell in Cases0.0000000
-200-0.0023227
0.0000000
0.0000000
0Harvest Now0.0000000
332000.3196295
0.0000000
0.0000000
0.2Low Acidity0.0000000
190000.1978011
0.47No Rain0.0000000
0.1Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
0.33390900990.33390900990.5>=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.26107153030.2610715303310000.3020431
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0.27688913290.27688913290.5>>Harvest Later>>>No Spores250000.2517352
0.0000000
0.33390900990.33390900990.33390900990.33390900990.0000000
0.2Low Acidity0.0000000
290000.2856613
0.0000000
0.9Immi. Law Pass0.0000000
0.5>=25% Sugar0.0000000
0.34200206320.3420020632410000.3784862
0.8Normal Acidity0.0000000
0.0000000
0.35608725590.35608725590.5
-
Use the detector, delay the harvest, but if the probability of spores exceeds 85.6%, do not buy the spores
Chart4
342004735026407.55332005375024157.45
342004735028036.1332005375025993.9
342004735029664.65332005375027830.35
342004735031293.2332005375029666.8
342004735032921.75332005375031503.25
342004735034550.3332005375033339.7
342004735036178.85332005375035176.15
342004735037807.4332005375037012.6
342004735039435.95332005375038849.05
342004735041064.5332005375040685.5
342004735042693.05332005375042521.95
342004735044321.6332005375044358.4
342004735045950.15332005375046194.85
342004735047578.7332005375048031.3
342004735049207.25332005375049867.75
342004735050835.8332005375051704.2
342004735052464.35332005375053540.65
342004735054092.9332005375055377.1
342004735055721.45332005375057213.55
342004735057350332005375059050
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of Mold
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of Mold
Parameters
Decision Set123456123456
Note: Tree v1 is complete for all variables and assuming risk-neutral. Tree v2 assumes 1 for both spores and detector effectiveness and risk-neutrality. Tree v3 is same as v2 except u(x) is based one risk odds and u-values for each bottle. Tree v4 is sameTesting V2No Detector, Harvest Now,No Detector, Harvest Later, SporesNo Detector, Harvest Later, No SporesDetector, Harvest NowDetector, Harvest Later, SporesDetector, Harvest Later, No SporesMax U-valueDecision SetDescriptionNo Detector, Harvest NowNo Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy SporesNo Detector, Delay Harvest, No SporesUse Detector, Harvest NowUse Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy SporesUse Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
UncertaintiesPercentageUse Tree v2p_rain34200p_rain47350p_rain37807.4p_rain33200p_rain53750p_rain37012.6p_rain
Prob of Rain0.530.05342000.05689500.05394490.05332000.05369500.05353710.05689502No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Prob of Mold Growing0.40.10342000.10667000.10392780.10332000.10387000.10355420.10667002No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Prob of Low Acidity0.20.15342000.15644500.15391070.15332000.15404500.15357130.15644502No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Prob of Sugar > 25%0.50.20342000.20622000.20389360.20332000.20422000.20358840.20622002No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Prob of Immigration Laws0.10.25342000.25599500.25387650.25332000.25439500.25360550.25599502No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Risk Odds1.00001160.30342000.30577000.30385940.30332000.30457000.30362260.30577002No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
a10.35342000.35554500.35384230.35332000.35474500.35363970.35554502No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
b-10.40342000.40532000.40382520.40332000.40492000.40365680.40532002No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.45342000.45509500.45380810.45332000.45509500.45367390.45509502No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Random Stuff0.50342000.50487000.50379100.50332000.50527000.50369100.50527005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Prob of Mold with Spores10.55342000.55464500.55377390.55332000.55544500.55370810.55544505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Cost of Spores-$10,000.000.60342000.60442000.60375680.60332000.60562000.60372520.60562005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Detector Accuracy0.80.65342000.65419500.65373970.65332000.65579500.65374230.65579505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Cost of Detector-$1,000.000.70342000.70397000.70372260.70332000.70597000.70375940.70597005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Immigration Fine-$10,000.000.75342000.75374500.75370550.75332000.75614500.75377650.75614505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Good Reputation$15,000.000.80342000.80352000.80368840.80332000.80632000.80379360.80632005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Bad Reputation-$25,000.000.85342000.85329500.85367130.85332000.85649500.85381070.85649505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Bulk Wine Rate0.50.90342000.90307000.90365420.90332000.90667000.90382780.90667005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Vol Increase / rain1.0750.95342000.95284500.95363710.95332000.95684500.95384490.95684505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Vol Decrease / mold0.71.00342001.00262001.00362001.00332001.00702001.00386201.00702005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Revenue with no spores/detectors
Harvest Now$34,200.00Use Tree v2p_mold34200p_mold47350p_mold37807.4p_mold33200p_mold53750p_mold37012.6p_mold
Good Mold$82,200.000.05342000.05473500.0526407.60.05332000.05537500.0524157.50.05537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Thin Wine$800.000.10342000.10473500.1028036.10.10332000.10537500.1025993.90.10537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Bulk Wine$12,900.000.15342000.15473500.1529664.70.15332000.15537500.1527830.40.15537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Low Acidity$30,000.000.20342000.20473500.2031293.20.20332000.20537500.2029666.80.20537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
> 25% sugar$42,000.000.25342000.25473500.2532921.80.25332000.25537500.2531503.30.25537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
< 25% sugar$36,000.000.30342000.30473500.3034550.30.30332000.30537500.3033339.70.30537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.35342000.35473500.3536178.90.35332000.35537500.3535176.20.35537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Wine Bottle Specs0.40342000.40473500.4037807.40.40332000.40537500.4037012.60.40537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
# cases10000.45342000.45473500.4539436.00.45332000.45537500.4538849.10.45537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
# bottles / case120.50342000.50473500.5041064.50.50332000.50537500.5040685.50.50537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Harvest Early Wine$2.850.55342000.55473500.5542693.10.55332000.55537500.5542522.00.55537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Moldy (Good) Wine bottle$8.000.60342000.60473500.6044321.60.60332000.60537500.6044358.40.60537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Thin Wine$2.000.65342000.65473500.6545950.20.65332000.65537500.6546194.90.65537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Bulk Wine$1.000.70342000.70473500.7047578.70.70332000.70537500.7048031.30.70537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Low Acid Wine$2.500.75342000.75473500.7549207.30.75332000.75537500.7549867.80.75537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Good Sugar$3.500.80342000.80473500.8050835.80.80332000.80537500.8051704.20.80537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Decent Sugar$3.000.85342000.85473500.8552464.40.85332000.85537500.8553540.70.85537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.90473500.9054092.90.90332000.90537500.9055377.10.9055377.16Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Detector Accuracy Measures0.95342000.95473500.9555721.50.95332000.95537500.9557213.60.9557213.556Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Says "Rain"0.5181.00342001.00473501.0057350.01.00332001.00537501.0059050.01.00590506Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Says "No Rain"0.482112233445566
Rain given "Rain"0.819
No Rain given "Rain"0.181Use Tree v2p_lowacid34200p_lowacid47350p_lowacid37807.4p_lowacid33200p_lowacid53750p_lowacid37012.6p_lowacid
Rain given "No Rain"0.2200.05342000.0548065.50.05385230.05332000.0554384.50.05376470.0554384.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Rain given "No Rain"0.7800.10342000.10478270.10382840.10332000.10541730.10374360.10541735Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.15342000.1547588.50.15380460.15332000.1553961.50.15372240.1553961.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.20342000.20473500.20378070.20332000.20537500.20370130.20537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.25342000.2547111.50.25375690.25332000.2553538.50.25368010.2553538.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.30342000.30468730.30373300.30332000.30533270.30365900.30533275Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.35342000.3546634.50.35370920.35332000.3553115.50.35363780.3553115.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.40342000.40463960.40368530.40332000.40529040.40361670.40529045Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.45342000.4546157.50.45366150.45332000.4552692.50.45359550.4552692.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.50342000.50459190.50363760.50332000.50524810.50357440.50524815Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.55342000.5545680.50.55361380.55332000.5552269.50.55355320.5552269.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.60342000.60454420.60358990.60332000.60520580.60353210.60520585Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.65342000.6545203.50.65356610.65332000.6551846.50.65351090.6551846.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.70342000.70449650.70354220.70332000.70516350.70348980.70516355Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.75342000.7544726.50.75351840.75332000.7551423.50.75346860.7551423.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.80342000.80444880.80349450.80332000.80512120.80344750.80512125Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.85342000.8544249.50.85347070.85332000.8551000.50.85342630.8551000.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.90440110.90344680.90332000.90507890.90340520.90507895Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.95342000.9543772.50.95342300.95332000.9550577.50.95338400.9550577.55Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.00342001.00435341.00339911.00332001.00503661.00336291.00503665Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Use Tree v2p_goodsugar34200p_goodsugar47350p_goodsugar37807.4p_goodsugar33200p_goodsugar53750p_goodsugar37012.6p_goodsugar
0.05342000.05473500.05376930.05332000.0552734.80.05359970.0552734.85Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.10342000.10473500.10377060.10332000.1052847.60.10361100.1052847.65Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.15342000.15473500.15377180.15332000.1552960.40.15362230.1552960.45Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.20342000.20473500.20377310.20332000.2053073.20.20363360.2053073.25Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.25342000.25473500.25377440.25332000.25531860.25364490.25531865Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.30342000.30473500.30377570.30332000.3053298.80.30365610.3053298.85Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.35342000.35473500.35377690.35332000.3553411.60.35366740.3553411.65Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.40342000.40473500.40377820.40332000.4053524.40.40367870.4053524.45Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.45342000.45473500.45377950.45332000.4553637.20.45369000.4553637.25Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.50342000.50473500.50378070.50332000.50537500.50370130.50537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.55342000.55473500.55378200.55332000.5553862.80.55371250.5553862.85Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.60342000.60473500.60378330.60332000.6053975.60.60372380.6053975.65Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.65342000.65473500.65378460.65332000.6554088.40.65373510.6554088.45Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.70342000.70473500.70378580.70332000.7054201.20.70374640.7054201.25Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.75342000.75473500.75378710.75332000.75543140.75375770.75543145Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.80342000.80473500.80378840.80332000.8054426.80.80376890.8054426.85Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.85342000.85473500.85378960.85332000.8554539.60.85378020.8554539.65Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.90473500.90379090.90332000.9054652.40.90379150.9054652.45Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.95342000.95473500.95379220.95332000.9554765.20.95380280.9554765.25Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.00342001.00473501.00379351.00332001.00548781.00381411.00548785Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Use Tree v2p_immilaw34200p_immilaw47350p_immilaw37807.4p_immilaw33200p_immilaw53750p_immilaw37012.6p_immilaw
0.05342000.05478500.05383070.05332000.05542500.05375130.05542505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.10342000.10473500.10378070.10332000.10537500.10370130.10537505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.15342000.15468500.15373070.15332000.15532500.15365130.15532505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.20342000.20463500.20368070.20332000.20527500.20360130.20527505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.25342000.25458500.25363070.25332000.25522500.25355130.25522505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.30342000.30453500.30358070.30332000.30517500.30350130.30517505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.35342000.35448500.35353070.35332000.35512500.35345130.35512505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.40342000.40443500.40348070.40332000.40507500.40340130.40507505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.45342000.45438500.45343070.45332000.45502500.45335130.45502505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.50342000.50433500.50338070.50332000.50497500.50330130.50497505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.55342000.55428500.55333070.55332000.55492500.55325130.55492505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.60342000.60423500.60328070.60332000.60487500.60320130.60487505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.65342000.65418500.65323070.65332000.65482500.65315130.65482505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.70342000.70413500.70318070.70332000.70477500.70310130.70477505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.75342000.75408500.75313070.75332000.75472500.75305130.75472505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.80342000.80403500.80308070.80332000.80467500.80300130.80467505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.85342000.85398500.85303070.85332000.85462500.85295130.85462505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.90393500.90298070.90332000.90457500.90290130.90457505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.95342000.95388500.95293070.95332000.95452500.95285130.95452505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.00342001.00383501.00288071.00332001.00447501.00280131.00447505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Use Tree v3PER BOTTLE U-VALUE
gammarisk odds0.0000330593risk odds0.00005risk odds0.00004risk odds0.00003risk odds0.0000519565risk odds0.00004
0.051.050.132811.050.175321.050.141661.050.129191.050.19839257011.050.13832
0.101.110.247991.110.313771.110.256571.110.241691.110.35376742421.110.24995
0.151.160.347861.160.423981.160.350741.160.339661.160.47605685911.160.34105
0.201.220.434471.220.512451.220.428691.220.424971.220.57280503181.220.41622
0.251.280.509581.280.584091.280.493831.280.499261.280.64975659451.280.47891
0.301.350.574721.350.642601.350.548741.350.563951.350.71129807371.350.53170
0.351.420.631201.420.690821.420.595431.420.620281.420.7607891581.420.57659
0.401.490.680181.490.730911.490.635421.490.669341.490.80081163071.490.61510
0.451.570.722661.570.764511.570.669911.570.712061.570.83335665261.570.64839
0.501.650.759491.650.792911.650.699871.650.749261.650.859965861.650.67740
0.551.730.791431.730.817091.730.726041.730.781651.730.88183783291.730.70284
0.601.820.819131.820.837831.820.749011.820.809861.820.89990857181.820.72529
0.651.920.843161.920.855731.920.769301.920.834431.920.91491244741.920.74522
0.702.010.863992.010.871272.010.787282.010.855822.010.92742845962.010.76299
0.752.120.882052.120.884842.120.803302.120.874442.120.93791543032.120.77892
0.802.230.897722.230.896732.230.817632.230.890662.230.94673884812.230.79327
0.852.340.911302.340.907212.340.830482.340.904792.340.9541914032.340.80623
0.902.460.923082.460.916472.460.842062.460.917092.460.96050874472.460.81799
0.952.590.933302.590.924682.590.852532.590.927802.590.96588161622.590.82869
1.002.720.942162.720.931992.720.862012.720.937132.720.97046523052.720.83846
112233445566
TOTAL REVENUE
gammarisk odds34200.0000000354risk odds47349.75risk odds37807.13risk odds33200.00risk odds53749.84risk odds37012.29gamma
0.051.0534200.001.0546261.341.0536661.901.0533200.001.0553072.711.0535728.740.0553072.715Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.101.1134200.001.1145185.081.1135577.391.1133200.001.1152391.501.1134513.720.1052391.505Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.151.1634200.001.1644129.601.1634553.711.1633200.001.1651709.771.1633369.060.1551709.775Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.201.2234200.001.2243102.341.2233589.411.2233200.001.2251030.891.2232294.360.2051030.895Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.251.2834200.001.2842109.591.2832682.081.2833200.001.2850358.091.2831287.710.2550358.095Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.301.3534200.001.3541156.291.3531828.691.3533200.001.3549694.421.3530346.120.3049694.425Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.351.4234200.001.4240246.021.4231025.821.4233200.001.4249042.631.4229465.900.3549042.635Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.401.4934200.001.4939381.091.4930269.931.4933200.001.4948405.131.4928642.970.4048405.135Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.451.5734200.001.5738562.591.5729557.451.5733200.001.5747783.981.5727873.090.4547783.985Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.501.6534200.001.6537790.601.6528884.951.6533200.001.6547180.861.6527152.080.5047180.865Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.551.7334200.001.7337064.371.7328249.211.7333200.001.7346597.031.7326475.900.5546597.035Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.601.8234200.001.8236382.491.8227647.201.8233200.001.8246033.421.8225840.760.6046033.425Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.651.9234200.001.9235743.081.9227076.201.9233200.001.9245490.611.9225243.150.6545490.615Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.702.0134200.002.0135143.922.0126533.712.0133200.002.0144968.842.0124679.860.7044968.845Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.752.1234200.002.1234582.602.1226017.492.1233200.002.1244468.122.1224147.980.7544468.125Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.802.2334200.002.2334056.622.2325525.532.2333200.002.2343988.222.2323644.860.8043988.225Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.852.3434200.002.3433563.452.3425056.032.3433200.002.3443528.712.3423168.160.8543528.715Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.902.4634200.002.4633100.642.4624607.392.4633200.002.4643089.012.4622715.750.9043089.015Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.952.5934200.002.5932665.792.5924178.162.5933200.002.5942668.452.5922285.730.9542668.455Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.002.7234200.002.7232256.632.7223767.052.7233200.002.7242266.252.7221876.391.0042266.255Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Use Tree v2Max Rev.53750.0
DS5Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
p_mold
50.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.550.60.650.70.750.80.850.90.951
p_rain0.0522222222222222223333
0.1022222222222222223333
0.1522222222222222223333
0.2022222222222222223333
0.2522222222222222223333
0.3022222222222222233333
0.3522222222222222233333
0.4022222222222222233333
0.4522222222222222333333
0.5055555555555555553333
0.5555555555555555555666
0.6055555555555555555666
0.6555555555555555555666
0.7055555555555555555666
0.7555555555555555555666
0.8055555555555555555666
0.8555555555555555555666
0.9055555555555555555666
0.9555555555555555555666
1.0055555555555555555666
Use Tree v2spores_eff34200spores_eff47350spores_eff37807.4spores_eff33200spores_eff53750spores_eff37012.6spores_eff
0.05342000.0516407.550.05378070.05332000.0518857.450.05370130.0537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.10342000.1018036.100.10378070.10332000.1020693.900.10370130.1037807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.15342000.1519664.650.15378070.15332000.1522530.350.15370130.1537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.20342000.2021293.200.20378070.20332000.2024366.800.20370130.2037807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.25342000.2522921.750.25378070.25332000.2526203.250.25370130.2537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.30342000.3024550.300.30378070.30332000.3028039.700.30370130.3037807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.35342000.3526178.850.35378070.35332000.3529876.150.35370130.3537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.40342000.4027807.400.40378070.40332000.4031712.600.40370130.4037807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.45342000.4529435.950.45378070.45332000.4533549.050.45370130.4537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.50342000.5031064.500.50378070.50332000.5035385.500.50370130.5037807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.55342000.5532693.050.55378070.55332000.5537221.950.55370130.5537807.403No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
0.60342000.6034321.600.60378070.60332000.6039058.400.60370130.6039058.405Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.65342000.6535950.150.65378070.65332000.6540894.850.65370130.6540894.855Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.70342000.7037578.700.70378070.70332000.7042731.300.70370130.7042731.305Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.75342000.7539207.250.75378070.75332000.7544567.750.75370130.7544567.755Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.80342000.8040835.800.80378070.80332000.8046404.200.80370130.8046404.205Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.85342000.8542464.350.85378070.85332000.8548240.650.85370130.8548240.655Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.9044092.900.90378070.90332000.9050077.100.90370130.9050077.105Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.95342000.9545721.450.95378070.95332000.9551913.550.95370130.9551913.555Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.00342001.0047350.001.00378071.00332001.0053750.001.00370131.0053750.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Use Tree v1detector_accu34200detector_accu47350detector_accu37807.4detector_accu33200detector_accu49050detector_accu35952.1161825726detector_accu
0.05342000.05473500.05378070.05332000.05490500.05384670.0549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.10342000.10473500.10378070.10332000.10490500.10383130.1049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.15342000.15473500.15378070.15332000.15490500.15381570.1549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.20342000.20473500.20378070.20332000.20490500.20379990.2049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.25342000.25473500.25378070.25332000.25490500.25378400.2549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.30342000.30473500.30378070.30332000.30490500.30376780.3049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.35342000.35473500.35378070.35332000.35490500.35375150.3549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.40342000.40473500.40378070.40332000.40490500.40373490.4049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.45342000.45473500.45378070.45332000.45490500.45371820.4549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.50342000.50473500.50378070.50332000.50490500.50370130.5049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.55342000.55473500.55378070.55332000.55490500.55368410.5549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.60342000.60473500.60378070.60332000.60490500.60366680.6049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.65342000.65473500.65378070.65332000.65490500.65364920.6549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.70342000.70473500.70378070.70332000.70490500.70363140.7049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.75342000.75473500.75378070.75332000.75490500.75361340.7549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.80342000.80473500.80378070.80332000.80490500.80359520.8049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.85342000.85473500.85378070.85332000.85490500.85357680.8549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.90342000.90473500.90378070.90332000.90490500.90355810.9049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
0.95342000.95473500.95378070.95332000.95490500.95353920.9549050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
1.00342001.00473501.00378071.00332001.00490501.00352001.0049050.005Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
112233445566
Sensitivity Graphs
123456
No Detector, Harvest NowNo Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy SporesNo Detector, Delay Harvest, No SporesUse Detector, Harvest NowUse Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy SporesUse Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
at p_rain = 0.618, the optimal decision set changes from 2 to 5
at p_mold = 0.840, the optimal decision set changes from 2 to 3
3, 6x
415824580.5911495911
2,3
32571225710.6929784164
2,6
25029367290.6814506248
DS 6 surpass DS 2 before DS 3 does.
for all p_lowacid, the optimal decision set is 5
for all p_goodsugar, the optimal decision set is 5
for all p_immilawpass, the optimal decision set is 5
at gamma=0.785, the optimal decision set changes from 2 to 1
In above diagram, at low probabilities for both rain and mold, the optimal decision set is 2 (blue).
At low probabilities of mold, and concentrated at high probabilities of rain, the optimal decision set is 5 (red).
At high probabilities of mold, and concentrated at low probabilities of rain, the optimal decision set is 3 (yellow).
At high probabilities for both rain and mold, the optimal decision set is 6 (aqua).
at p=0.707, the optimal decision set changes from 3 to 2
regardless of detector accuracy, mr. jaeger shoud always use detector, spores, and harvest later.
Sensitivity Graphs
342004735026407.55332005375024157.45
342004735028036.1332005375025993.9
342004735029664.65332005375027830.35
342004735031293.2332005375029666.8
342004735032921.75332005375031503.25
342004735034550.3332005375033339.7
342004735036178.85332005375035176.15
342004735037807.4332005375037012.6
342004735039435.95332005375038849.05
342004735041064.5332005375040685.5
342004735042693.05332005375042521.95
342004735044321.6332005375044358.4
342004735045950.15332005375046194.85
342004735047578.7332005375048031.3
342004735049207.25332005375049867.75
342004735050835.8332005375051704.2
342004735052464.35332005375053540.65
342004735054092.9332005375055377.1
342004735055721.45332005375057213.55
342004735057350332005375059050
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of Mold
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of Mold
Tree v1
342006895039449332003695035371
342006670039278332003870035542
342006445039107332004045035713
342006220038936332004220035884
342005995038765332004395036055
342005770038594332004570036226
342005545038423332004745036397
342005320038252332004920036568
342005095038081332005095036739
342004870037910332005270036910
342004645037739332005445037081
342004420037568332005620037252
342004195037397332005795037423
342003970037226332005970037594
342003745037055332006145037765
342003520036884332006320037936
342003295036713332006495038107
342003070036542332006670038278
342002845036371332006845038449
342002620036200332007020038620
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of Rain
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of Rain
Tree v2
3420048065.538522.93320054384.537647.1
342004782738284.4332005417337435.6
3420047588.538045.93320053961.537224.1
342004735037807.4332005375037012.6
3420047111.537568.93320053538.536801.1
342004687337330.4332005332736589.6
3420046634.537091.93320053115.536378.1
342004639636853.4332005290436166.6
3420046157.536614.93320052692.535955.1
342004591936376.4332005248135743.6
3420045680.536137.93320052269.535532.1
342004544235899.4332005205835320.6
3420045203.535660.93320051846.535109.1
342004496535422.4332005163534897.6
3420044726.535183.93320051423.534686.1
342004448834945.4332005121234474.6
3420044249.534706.93320051000.534263.1
342004401134468.4332005078934051.6
3420043772.534229.93320050577.533840.1
342004353433991.4332005036633628.6
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of Low Acidity
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of Low Acidity
Tree v3 (Var. Risk Odds)
342004735037692.923320052734.835997.4
342004735037705.643320052847.636110.2
342004735037718.363320052960.436223
342004735037731.083320053073.236335.8
342004735037743.8332005318636448.6
342004735037756.523320053298.836561.4
342004735037769.243320053411.636674.2
342004735037781.963320053524.436787
342004735037794.683320053637.236899.8
342004735037807.4332005375037012.6
342004735037820.123320053862.837125.4
342004735037832.843320053975.637238.2
342004735037845.563320054088.437351
342004735037858.283320054201.237463.8
342004735037871332005431437576.6
342004735037883.723320054426.837689.4
342004735037896.443320054539.637802.2
342004735037909.163320054652.437915
342004735037921.883320054765.238027.8
342004735037934.6332005487838140.6
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of >=25% Sugar
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of >=25% Sugar
Tree v4 (Var. Risk Odds)
342004785038307.4332005425037512.6
342004735037807.4332005375037012.6
342004685037307.4332005325036512.6
342004635036807.4332005275036012.6
342004585036307.4332005225035512.6
342004535035807.4332005175035012.6
342004485035307.4332005125034512.6
342004435034807.4332005075034012.6
342004385034307.4332005025033512.6
342004335033807.4332004975033012.6
342004285033307.4332004925032512.6
342004235032807.4332004875032012.6
342004185032307.4332004825031512.6
342004135031807.4332004775031012.6
342004085031307.4332004725030512.6
342004035030807.4332004675030012.6
342003985030307.4332004625029512.6
342003935029807.4332004575029012.6
342003885029307.4332004525028512.6
342003835028807.4332004475028012.6
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Probability of Immi. Law Pass
Revenue
Sensitivity to Probability of Immi. Law Pass
3420046261.339190590136661.89543986053320053072.707160582535728.7362881907
3420045185.078130455335577.38554410383320052391.497858176234513.7152848782
3420044129.596302884934553.70703502113320051709.768824129533369.0568826677
3420043102.343137860733589.40586534053320051030.886195971132294.3562728555
3420042109.589553045232682.07864043013320050358.092251373831287.7070596405
3420041156.285778976731828.68654828953320049694.42080121530346.1205079244
3420040246.023944209431025.82310128853320049042.62623646829465.9027335954
3420039381.090932763130269.92822021163320048405.129672936328642.9694801903
3420038562.589171665329557.44923761923320047783.983850840827873.0922810591
3420037790.600481671328884.95429321413320047180.856700483827152.0793124527
3420037064.369867762728249.20593847473320046597.032009614526475.8995236757
3420036382.490496919727647.20332805153320046033.424566647925840.7607212652
3420035743.076506843327076.20085079993320045490.606555910725243.1523006103
3420035143.91550911326533.70997969073320044968.841814843524679.862187728
3420034582.596995203126017.48985857173320044468.124742610424147.975934714
3420034056.61605984425525.5309109483320043988.221064650723644.8642158079
3420033563.453954297125056.03466277663320043528.708199102923168.1634199098
3420033100.638158867624607.39206088913320043089.013547019722715.7527265596
3420032665.785157382124178.16184443283320042668.449572336822285.7300071788
3420032256.629132377623767.04997153273320042266.245008853221876.3880931282
No Detector, Harvest Now
No Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
No Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Use Detector, Harvest Now
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, Buy Spores
Use Detector, Delay Harvest, No Spores
Risk Aversion Coefficient (gamma)
Revenue
Sensitivity to Risk Aversion Coefficient
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222255555555555
22222222355555555555
22222333355555555555
33333333335555555555
3333
![4IVJSVQERGI 'SRWMWXIRG] 'LSMGI - Newpro · Freemark Abbey Geyser Peak Girard Winery Hanna Winery Kendall Jackson Kunde Winery Langtry Estate ... 1-2% are tainted with mold flavors](https://static.fdocuments.us/doc/165x107/5aee693e7f8b9a45569106bd/4ivjsvqergi-srwmwxirg-lsmgi-abbey-geyser-peak-girard-winery-hanna-winery-kendall.jpg)
