70 by 30 Implementation PlanIWEA Autumn Conference 24th October 2019

Paul Blount, BE CEng, Portfolio Director Coillte, paul.blount@coillte.ie, Chair of the 70by30 Committee

• Provide an evidence basis and support the

delivery of a 70% RES-E target in 2030

The role of the 70by30 committee

• Is this a credible proposition?

• Provide an evidence basis and support the

delivery of a 70% RES-E target in 2030

The role of the 70by30 committee

• Is this a credible proposition?

• Can it be cost effective?

• Provide an evidence basis and support the

delivery of a 70% RES-E target in 2030

The role of the 70by30 committee

• Is this a credible proposition?

• Can it be cost effective?

• Will it be supported by society?

• Can it be done in just 10 years?

IWEA 70 by 30 Implementation

Plan Working Group

70% Renewable Electricity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2020 2030

TWh

Conventional Generation (TWh) Renewable generation (TWh)

40% RES-E

Double the renewables in half the time = time is of the essence!

70% RES-E

Forecast 50% increase in demand

BaU “Typical” Project timelines

9 years of work + high risk dev ex to be ready to bid into an auction

Start transmission development here?

Or here?

i-PAT (IWEA pipeline analysis tool)

• Location

• Status

• Attrition

IWEA Developer Survey

• SID / LA

• Success Rates

• Durations

Consenting process • Batch size

• Frequency

• Prioritisation

Grid Offer process

• Allocate available capacity

• Apply delays when full

Transmission Capacity • Oversubscription

• Frequency

Route to Market

• Project finance

• Grid delivery

Finance & Build

Populate model with BauAssumptions

Determine MW’s consented and

energised in each year

Implement Policy Improvement

Assumptions (PI 1 –8)

Determine improvements in

MW’s consented and energised in each

year

i-PAT Preliminary Results

Onshore Wind Planning Consents

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

MW

's c

on

sen

ted

Year

MW's onshore wind consented 2020 - 2030

BaU

PI 1

PI 2

PI 3

BaU assumptions:• 33% pre planning

attrition• 38% SID success rate• 80% LA success rate• 1.9 year average

consenting duration

PI 1 assumptions:• 15% pre planning

attrition

PI 2 assumptions:• 75% SID success

rates• 1.6yr average

consenting duration

PI 3 assumptions:• 1.1yr average

consenting duration

Min planning consents required with no competition, no post planning attrition

i-PAT Preliminary Results

Onshore Wind Energisations

BaU assumptions:• ECP date order of

planning grant, 50 offers p.a.

• Transmission development starts post WF planning

• 2nd application for grid connection planning

• 2.5 year finance and build period

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

MW

's o

nsh

ore

win

d e

ner

gise

d

Year

MW's onshore wind energised 2020 - 2030

BaU

PI 4

PI 5

PI 6

Pi 7

PI 8

Climate Action Plan 2030 onshore wind target

All scenarios assume a route to market for 66% of the MW’s available to contract every year

Intermediate targets?

i-PAT Preliminary Results

Onshore Wind Energisations

PI 4 assumptions:• ECP – 1st 25 offers

each year to largest projects

PI 5 assumptions:• Parallel development

of the transmission system

PI 6 assumptions:• Parallel consenting of

shallow grid connection

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

MW

's o

nsh

ore

win

d e

ner

gise

d

Year

MW's onshore wind energised 2020 - 2030

BaU

PI 4

PI 5

PI 6

Pi 7

PI 8

PI 7 assumptions:• Less onerous ECP

long stop dates

PI 8 assumptions:• Shorter finance &

build period

Climate Action Plan 2030 onshore wind target

All scenarios assume a route to market for 66% of the MW’s available to contract every year

Intermediate targets?

Offshore Wind

3.5

GW

+ b

y 2

03

0

Climate Action Plan sets a blueprint to achieving 2030 targets – actions must be complete

25 MW currently

Co

nse

nts

Gri

d

Ro

ute

to

Mar

ket

MPDM bill enacted

Connection decisions + pragmatic regulatory framework

Timely offshore specific RESS round with sufficient volumes

Shared challenges

• Parallel development of the transmission system

• Timely grid connection offers + connection offer long stop dates

• Parallel consenting of shallow connection assets

• Grid delivery timelines

• Route to market – RESS / cPPAs

• ABP decision timelines

• Curtailment

Curtailment vs Operational

Constraints

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Tota

l Win

d C

urt

ailm

ent

(%)

All Island Minimum Conventional Generation (MW)

70% RES-E Scenarios - Total Wind Curtailment vs SNSP & Min Gen

75% SNSP

80% SNSP

85% SNSP

90% SNSP

95% SNSP

100% SNSPBaringa 2030– 90% SNSP, 700MW Min Gen

Eirgrid Strategy 2030 –95% SNSP, Min Gen = ?

2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGHk1PfdEfg

Curtailment vs Operational

Constraints

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Tota

l Win

d C

urt

ailm

ent

(%)

All Island Minimum Conventional Generation (MW)

70% RES-E Scenarios - Total Wind Curtailment vs SNSP & Min Gen

95% SNSP

Eirgrid Strategy 2030 –95% SNSP, Min Gen = ?

Eirgrid strategy on operational constraints could address 2/3rds of the curtailment challenge on its own

2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGHk1PfdEfg

Curtailment vs Operational

Constraints

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Tota

l Win

d C

urt

ailm

ent

(%)

All Island Minimum Conventional Generation (MW)

70% RES-E Scenarios - Total Wind Curtailment vs SNSP & Min Gen

75% SNSP

80% SNSP

85% SNSP

90% SNSP

95% SNSP

100% SNSPBaringa

Eirgrid

Curtailment vs Storage &

Interconnectors

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Tota

l Win

d C

urt

ailm

ent

(%)

Additional Interconnection / Storage (MW)

All Island Wind Curtailment Vs Additional Idealised Interconnection and Storage

3hr Battery Storage

6hr PHES

15h PHES

30h PHES

In energy storage terms this would be the equivalent of 50 Turlough hill projects

Curtailment vs Storage &

Interconnectors

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Tota

l Win

d C

urt

ailm

ent

(%)

Additional Interconnection / Storage (MW)

All Island Wind Curtailment Vs Additional Idealised Interconnection and Storage

Idealised Interconnection

Greenlink

Celtic

50% average export solves c.a. ¼ of the problem

But is it possible to do more with better market design?

100% exports during curtailment events

50% exports during curtailment events

Ingredients for success

• Healthy development pipelines on & offshore

Ingredients for success

• Healthy development pipelines on & offshore

• Timely grid connection offers

Ingredients for success

• Healthy development pipelines on & offshore

• Timely grid connection offers

• Manage Curtailment

• Manage Constraint

Ingredients for success

• Healthy development pipelines on & offshore

• Timely grid connection offers

• Manage Curtailment

• Manage Constraint

• Route to market

Ingredients for success

• Healthy development pipelines on & offshore

• Timely grid connection offers

• Manage Curtailment

• Manage Constraint

• Route to market

• Partnerships / Cooperation / Collaboration /

information sharing

“Work with partners for positive change”

Key take aways

• Transmission system development could be the

greatest challenge – we need to start now

Key take aways

• Transmission system development could be the

greatest challenge – we need to start now

• 2030 is just a waypoint on a longer journey

Key take aways

• Collaboration / partnerships across all

stakeholders is key to success and what we do

together in the next 1-2 years will determine

whether we succeed or fail.

– REI proposal to bring SOs, CRU, Industry, DCCAE,

DHPLG, and ABP together regularly to monitor progress

/ remove road blocks.

• Transmission system development could be the

greatest challenge – we need to start now

• 2030 is just a waypoint on a longer journey