7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human...
Transcript of 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human...
![Page 1: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
Objectives
To determine
the predictability of climate
the effect of human activities on climate
WCRP
![Page 2: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
TOGA 1985-1994
GEWEX 1988
WOCE 1990-2002
SPARC 1992
ACSYS 1994–2003
CLIVAR 1995
WGNEWGCM
, CliC 2000
![Page 3: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
Aim of SPARC
• To bring stratospheric expertise to bear on scientific issues concerned with climate processes and climate prediction;
• for the benefit of– WCRP – WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment– IPCC– Space Agencies
![Page 4: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
Current SPARC Themes• Stratospheric Indicators of Climate Change
– Trends in T, O3 and H2O in UTLS
• Stratospheric Process and their Relation to Climate – UTLS – gravity wave process + parametrisation
• Modelling stratospheric effects on climate– GCM Reality Intercomparison Project (GRIPS) – reference climatology
• Special projects (e.g.)– aerosol assessment – data assimilation
![Page 5: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
Recent Deliverables
• "Stratospheric temperature trends: observations and model simulations" (paper by STTA group, awarded the WMO Norbert Gerbier-MUMM Award, 2003).
• Stratospheric reference climatology
• WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment 2002– Chap. 4 Global Ozone: past and future.
![Page 6: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
Stratospheric Chemistry
and Climate
Stratosphere-Troposphere coupling
Detection and Attribution of Past Stratospheric Changes
Model
Development
Process
StudiesData
Future Themes
![Page 7: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
Stratospheric Chemistryand Climate
• How will stratospheric ozone and other constituents evolve?
• How will changes in stratospheric composition affect climate?
• What are the links between changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and tropospheric chemistry?
![Page 8: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
Detection and Attribution of Past Stratospheric Changes
• What are the past changes and variations in the stratosphere?
• How well can we explain past changes in terms of natural and anthropogenic effects.
![Page 9: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
1979-1994
2 uncertainty
Compiled using radiosonde, satellite and analysed data sets
Mean vertical profile of annual & decadal temperature trend at 45oN.
![Page 10: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling
• What is the role of dynamical and radiative coupling with the stratosphere in extended range tropospheric weather forecasting?
• What is the role of dynamical and radiative coupling in determining long-term trends in tropospheric climate?
• By what mechanisms do the stratosphere and troposphere act as a coupled system?
![Page 11: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
Future Deliverables• Temperature Trend Assessment Report. • Aerosol Assessment Report.• Review on AO/NAO for strat-trop system.• Review of gravity-wave parameterisations
(after Chapman conference 2003). • Review of scientific issues in chemistry-climate.• Ozone: coherent review on GCM/CTM. predictions of
mid-latitude O3 anticipating next WMO/UNEP requirement.
• IPCC
![Page 13: 7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd8ac3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
7 October 2003 COST 723
SPARC General Assembly 1-6 August 2004
• Victoria, Canada
• Co-chairs of Programme Committee:– A.R. Ravishankara & T. Shepherd
• Chair of LOC: N. McFarlane
• Web site http://sparc.seos.uvic.ca (to be launched in few weeks time)