68TH SESSION OF THE OECD STEEL COMMITTEE · 68TH SESSION OF THE OECD STEEL COMMITTEE May 06-07,...
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68 TH SESSION OF THE OECD STEEL COMMITTEE May 06-07, 2010 Paris Dr. Veysel Yayan Secretary General Turkish Iron and Steel Producers’ Association 1 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH STEEL INDUSTRY 40th YEAR
Transcript of 68TH SESSION OF THE OECD STEEL COMMITTEE · 68TH SESSION OF THE OECD STEEL COMMITTEE May 06-07,...
68TH SESSION OF THE OECD STEEL COMMITTEE
May 06-07, 2010
Paris
Dr. Veysel Yayan
Secretary General
Turkish Iron and Steel Producers’ Association
1
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH STEEL INDUSTRY
40th YEAR
2
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Development of Economy, Construction, Manufacturing and Steel Industries (%)
GDP Construction Manufacturing Steel Industry
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
GDP -3,4 6,8 -5,7 6,2 5,3 9,4 8,4 6,9 4,7 0,7 -4,7 6
Construction -12,7 5,8 -5,9 -5,6 -9 4,6 21,5 19,4 5,7 -8,1 -16,3 13,0
Manufacturing -5,1 6,9 -7,6 2,9 8,4 11,9 8,2 8,4 5,6 -0,1 -7,2 15
Steel Industry 1,1 0,1 4,6 9,9 11,1 11,9 2,4 11,8 9,9 4,1 -5,6 15,0
3
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
GDP 8,1 4,1 3,3 3,6 7 2,6 0,9 -7 -14,5 -7,7 -2,9 6 10
Construction 8,8 7,5 4 0,5 -3,1 -5,0 -9,6 -14,1 -18,6 -21,1 -18,3 -6,6 8,0
Steel 15,3 11,4 6,6 6,8 10,2 11,0 12,0 -16,8 -18,2 -14,1 -6,1 22,8 7,6
8.1
4.1 3.3 3.6
7
2.6 0.9
-7
-14.5
-7.7
-2.9
6.0
10.0 8.8
7.5
4
0.5 -3.1
-5.0 -9.6
-14.1
-18.6 -21.1 -18.3
-6.6
8.0
15.3
11.4
6.6 6.8
10.2 11.0 12.0
-16.8 -18.2
-14.1
-6.1
22.8
7.6
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1
Quarterly Development of GDP, Steel and Construction Industries (%)
GDP Construction Steel
4
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1
6.26 6.60
6.43 6.46
6.90
7.33 7.20
5.38 5.64
6.29
6.76 6.60
6.07
Turkey's Crude Steel Production (tons)
5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
Long 17.869 20.302 22.028 22.650 20.540 4.647 4.710 1,4
Flat 3.095 3.135 3.726 4.156 4.763 997 1.364 36,8
TOTAL 20.964 23.437 25.754 26.806 25.303 5.644 6.074 7,6
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Long and Flat Crude Steel Production ('000 tons)
Long Flat
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
EAF 14.847 17.252 19.362 19.772 17.741 3.836 3.955 3,1
BOF 6.117 6.185 6.392 7.034 7.562 1.808 2.119 17,2
TOTAL 20.964 23.437 25.754 26.806 25.303 5.644 6.074 7,6
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Crude Steel Production by Processes ('000 tons)
EAF BOF
* forecasted
7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011*
25.1 27.7
32.0 34.1
38.5
43.4
48.3
Turkey's Melting Capacity (tons)
8
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Finished Steel Production ('000 tons)
Long Flat
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
Long 15.825 19.237 21.810 22.141 20.713 4.989 4.696 -5,9
Flat 3.768 4.122 4.257 4.543 4.406 928 1.275 37,4
TOTAL 19.593 23.359 26.067 26.684 25.119 5.917 5.971 0,9
9
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Finished Steel Consumption ('000 tons)
Long Flat
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
Long 9.077 10.536 12.110 10.272 9.693 1.648 2.895 75,7
Flat 8.190 9.293 10.196 9.552 6.832 1.141 2.610 128,7
TOTAL 17.267 19.829 22.306 19.824 16.525 2.789 5.505 97,4
10
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Long Steel Production and Consumption ('000 tons)
Production Consumption
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
Production 15.825 19.237 21.810 22.141 20.713 4.989 4.696 -5,9
Consumption 9.077 10.536 12.110 10.272 9.693 1.648 2.895 75,7
11
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Flat Steel Production and Consumption ('000 tons)
Production Consumption
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
Production 3.768 4.122 4.257 4.543 4.406 928 1.275 37,4
Consumption 8.190 9.293 10.196 9.552 6.832 1.141 2.610 128,7
12
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Total Steel Exports and Imports (tons)
Export Import
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
Export 13.331.037 15.352.717 16.695.807 19.955.871 18.740.580 4.986.645 3.910.535 -21,6
Import 10.097.817 12.313.264 13.945.796 13.587.357 10.441.896 2.262.881 3.001.471 32,6
13
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Total Steel Export and Import ('000 USD)
Export Import
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
Export 7.600.204 9.406.315 12.239.191 20.455.847 12.013.709 3.122.406 2.732.468 -12,5
Import 7.039.042 8.615.674 11.480.893 15.013.489 7.941.716 1.874.450 2.492.963 33,0
Billet 12% Slab
1% Flat Products
9%
Long Products 63%
Pipe 8%
Others 7%
Turkey's Steel Exports (% Share, 2009)
Billet 33%
Slab 2%
Flat Products 54%
Long Products 7%
Pipe 2%
Others 2%
Turkey's Steel Imports (% share, 2009)
14
15
Turkey’s Steel Export By Products (tons)
Turkey’s Steel Import By Products (tons)
Products 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
Semis 2.208.704 1.630.208 1.660.652 2.500.996 2.426.142 384.024 860.597 124,1
Flat 1.188.197 1.393.536 1.244.084 1.367.748 1.647.778 467.933 257.742 -44,9
Long 7.679.474 9.644.657 10.890.121 12.937.403 11.790.784 3.471.800 2.095.984 -39,6
Pipe 1.200.520 1.455.631 1.547.773 1.675.181 1.522.176 371.839 359.034 -3,4
Others 1.054.142 1.228.685 1.353.177 1.474.543 1.353.700 291.049 337.178 15,8
TOTAL 13.331.037 15.352.717 16.695.807 19.955.871 18.740.580 4.986.645 3.910.535 -21,6
Products 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
Semis 1.930.047 2.844.340 3.404.568 3.849.141 3.628.868 980.629 636.076 -35,1
Flat 6.782.799 7.957.368 8.647.397 8.006.610 5.575.540 1.053.800 1.942.330 84,3
Long 932.092 943.285 1.190.132 1.068.654 771.640 131.091 294.986 125,0
Pipe 242.308 312.768 403.303 322.498 225.338 48.053 62.183 29,4
Others 210.571 255.503 300.396 340.454 240.510 49.308 65.896 33,6
TOTAL 10.097.817 12.313.264 13.945.796 13.587.357 10.441.896 2.262.881 3.001.471 32,6
16
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Steel Export by Regions (tons)
USA EU-27 Far East & SE Asia Middle East & Gulf
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
USA 1.384.240 1.933.757 531.545 819.661 347.156 155.917 178.109 14,2
EU-27 3.717.390 5.199.044 6.297.043 4.353.912 2.711.461 836.552 436.841 -47,8
Far East & SE Asia 617.253 86.321 269.666 661.762 1.724.344 316.997 401.089 26,5
Middle East & Gulf 4.973.432 5.186.240 6.400.915 10.195.880 6.843.462 1.552.596 1.501.737 -3,3
N. Africa 1.464.433 1.589.901 1.377.897 1.738.865 4.873.511 1.699.026 803.203 -52,7
Others 1.174.289 1.357.454 1.818.741 2.185.791 2.240.646 425.557 589.556 38,5
TOTAL 13.331.037 15.352.717 16.695.807 19.955.871 18.740.580 4.986.645 3.910.535 -21,6
USA 2%
EU (27) 15%
F.East & S. Asia 9%
M. East & Gulf Region
37%
N.Africa 26%
Others 11%
Share of Steel Export By Regions (% share, 2009)
17
18
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1
Turkey's Quarterly Steel Exports by Regions (000 tons)
Middle East EU-27 N. Africa
19
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Steel Imports by Regions (tons)
EU-27 CIS Far East & SE Asia
Regions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 %
EU-27 4.370.318 4.472.701 5.080.483 4.379.925 3.936.784 573.093 1.370.253 139,1
CIS 5.094.153 6.816.441 7.492.458 7.329.661 5.312.952 1.404.517 1.320.536 -6,0
Far East & SE Asia 267.834 525.566 901.844 1.273.689 736.505 177.199 241.635 36,4
Others 365.512 498.556 471.011 604.082 455.655 108.072 69.047 -36,1
TOTAL 10.097.817 12.313.264 13.945.796 13.587.357 10.441.896 2.262.881 3.001.471 32,6
CIS 51%
EU (27) 38%
F.East & S. Asia 7%
Others 2%
N.Africa 2%
Steel Import by Regions (% share, tons)
20
21
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009--Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1
Turkey's Quarterly Steel Imports By Regions, '000 tons
EU-27 CIS Others
22
EU (27) 50%
USA 25%
Russia 8%
Ukraine 4%
Others 13%
Turkey's Scrap Import (2009)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey's Scrap Imports (million tons)
23
Forecasts
• Turkey’s crude steel production is expected to increase by around 15 % in
2010.
• In addition to the growth in domestic consumption, new capacities particularly
for flat and structural steel will also support the production rise in 2010.
• Depending on the recovery in economy and with the help of the base effect,
Turkey’s steel consumption is expected to rise by around 20 % in 2010.
• New capacities are expected to restrict the rising trend in import, which was up
33 % in the Q1 2010 by substituting the imported material and contribute to the
growth of steel export, which dropped 22 % in the first quarter 2010.
• The realization of these expectations will depend on the recovery of the world
and Turkish economies.
• Fluctuations in the EU economy and weak Euro encourages Turkey’s imports
from the EU, while playing a restrictive role inTurkey’s export to the region.
