666 - 2009

Question: Do we see evidence of developing commodity

scarcity in economic time series?

I look to some marker series.

http://minerals.usgs.gov/

The time series

Global production-consumption and (real) price during the past

108 years: 1900-2008CopperLeadZincNickelGoldCrude (from 1960)

Copper

Copper production and consumption has increased by 31x since 1900; price has decreased by 20% even in face of the 2006-08 pseudo-boom!

Lead

Consumption has flattened since Pb was removed from gasoline; the 2006-08 price boom might be reflected in higher production?

Zinc

What accounts for the general drop in price of these metals?

Plenty?Efficiency?Cheap energy?Higher grade ores?Recycling?

Nickel

I see no clear price/consumption relationship. It doesn't appear that increased consumption is driving price or price is driving production.

Cause-effect relationship?

None of these metal commodities has increased in value relative to the rest of the global economy during the entire 20th Century. Does that mean that they have remained in abundance?

These economic series would not suggest that we are imminently running out.

Politically tainted commodities

I would argue that crude oil production is severely managed by non-economic forces and mediated by political events. Still we believe that we are facing “Peak Oil” and might have already passed the peak. If so, we face energy penury.

I suggest that gold is also not involved in the economy as a simple supply-demand commodity.

Crude oil

The “oil shock” of 1973 drove crude prices to levels that have not been seen since. High prices in the '70s stimulated conservation, lowering prices that led to production collapse in the '90s... and again the cycle?

Gold(Is gold a commodity?)

I think gold is a psychological measure of uncertainty rather than a real commodity. It isn't much used; it is largely saved in bullion and coins. Only a fraction is used in jewelry and industry.