6 Us Trends Oct 2009
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Transcript of 6 Us Trends Oct 2009
Six Trends Shaping US Online Retail
Scott Silverman
Executive Director, Shop.org
6 Key Trends in US Online Retail
1. US online retail growth in the context of overall retail and Amazon
2. Review of Q309 and ’09 Holiday Expectations3. Cross-channel4. Social media is (finally) a real channel5. Private flash sales6. Policy issues brewing
Online Retail is Big and Still Growing
#1 Online vs. Store vs. Amazon
Source: Forrester Research
Online Vs. Stores in Q2 2009
#1 Online vs. Store vs. Amazon
Source: Internet Retailer, company press releases
Company Q2 Web Sales Growth
Q2 Comp Store Growth
Diff
Foot Locker Inc. 10.7% -2.9% 13.6%Nordstrom Inc. 0.0% -6.5% 6.5%American Eagle 17.0% -10.0% 27.0%Gap 17.3% -8.0% 25.3%Kohl's 33.3% -23.0% 56.3%Abercrombie 13.0% -30.0% 43.0%
Amazon Vs. Everyone Else
Amazon• US/Canada sales up
19% for first 3 quarters of ’09
• Guidance for Q409 is sales growth between 21% and 36%
Everyone Else• Q2 E-commerce
sales decreased 4.4% (U.S. Dept of Commerce)
#1 Online vs. Store vs. Amazon
Almost Three-Quarters of Retailers’ Sales Grew in Q3 2009
Source: Shop.org / Forrester Research Survey, Oct 2009
#2 Q3 & Holiday Expectations
18%
7%
3%
17%
55%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Decreased more than10%
Decreased 0-10%
Remained flat
Increased 0-10%
Increased more than10% Increased:
72%
Flat: 3%
Decreased: 25%
N=69
Big Retailers Were the Q3 Winners
39%
6%
50%
17%
4%
79%
21%
0%
79%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Decreasedsales
Flat sales
Increasedsales
Large retailer
Medium retailer
Small retailer
Shop.org/Forrester Q3 Flash survey, 10/09Large retailers earn $100MM+ in web revenue (N=24)Medium retailers earn $10-100MM in web revenue (N=24)Small retailers earn <$10MM in web revenue (N=18)
#2 Q3 & Holiday Expectations
U.S. Retailers Optimistic About Holiday ‘09
1/3 Expecting Growth of 25% or More
20.3%
15.3%
16.9%
33.9%
8.5%
5.1%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
Decrease
Flat to 14% higher
15-24% higher
25-49% higher
50 to 149% higher
150% or higher
#2 Q3 & Holiday Expectations
N = 59, Source, Shop.org eHoliday, 9/09
Oct 10, 2001!!
Cross-Channel Strategies Remain in the Early Stages
#3 Cross Channel
Q: What weighs 135g and can break down some of the strongest silos in business?
#3 Cross Channel
A: U.S. is a Leader in Mobile Internet Usage• More text messages are now sent per
user in the U.S. than in Europe• As of May 2008, there were 40 million
active users of the Mobile Internet in the U.S. (Nielsen)
• Apple sold 6.9 million iPhones in Q4 of 2008
#3 Cross Channel
In-store Product Reviews Now Available
#3 Cross Channel
Social Media Has Overtaken Porn
as the #1 Activity on the Web
Social Media Blooming for Retailers
• 71% of retailers are using Twitter– New to 40% in
2009• 81% of retailers
have a Facebook page– New to 25% in
2009
#4 Social Media
Source: Shop.org 2009 eHoliday study
Private Online Flash Sales
• Daily “members only” sales of limited merchandise• Perfect storm of e-commerce
– Simplicity – one product– Discount– Urgency– Instant communications
• 1.5 million Gilt Groupe members
#5 Private flash sales
• Privacy advocates have the ear of the Obama administration and Congress
• ICANN pursuing unlimited domain names
– .walmart, .tesco, .retail, .beer, etc.
– Significant fraud and cybersquatting threats
Online Privacy Laws & gTLDs
#6 Policy Issues