6 th Green Ocean Workshop Villefranche sur mer Spring 2007.
-
date post
19-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of 6 th Green Ocean Workshop Villefranche sur mer Spring 2007.
Questions:
• what are the important feedbacks between
marine ecosystems and climate on timescales
of 1 yr to 100 kyr?
• are marine ecosystems stable?
• are there sensitive regions that we should closely
monitor or potentially dangerous climate regimes or
human activities that we should carefully avoid?
Products of 2006 workshop:
• EOS workshop report on Modelling interactions between marine ecosystems and climate
• Definition of 2 priorities:
(1) develop a scheme for model evaluation
(2) gather observations on rates and biomass
planned developments of a Dynamic Green Ocean Model
Export
11 PgC/y
Respiration
34 PgC/y
Primary Production
45 PgC/y
pico-heterotrophsmonera
phyto-plankton
pico-autotrophs
N2-fixers
calcifiers
DMSp-producers
mixed
silicifiers
zoo-plankton
proto
meso
macro
bacteria
phytoplankton zooplankton
pico-hetero.
pico-autotr.
N2-fix. calcifiers
DMSp-prod.
mixed-phyto
silicifiers
proto meso macro
rates
biomass
satellite
geochem.
data available for parameterisation and evaluation (2006)
bacteria
phytoplankton zooplankton
pico-hetero.
pico-autotr.
N2-fix. calcifiers
DMSp-prod.
mixed-phyto
silicifiers
proto meso macro
rates
biomass
satellite
geochem.
data available for parameterisation and evaluation (2007)
(proposal under review with Euroceans)
Recent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
Raupach et al. PNAS
CO2 emissions (GtC/y)
1970 2005
time (y)
1990
sea level change (cm)
temperature change (ºC)
Rahmstorf et al. Science
1970 2005
time (y)
1990
biological changes
observed recent past
possible future
identify potentially dangerous feedbacks due
to recent (or projected) climate change
Products of 2007 workshop:
• review progress and revise priorities
• define steps to move forward on priorities
(1) develop a scheme for model evaluationAMERM effort (led by Icarus Alan) model intercomparison with Yasuhiro Yamanaka
+
(2) gather observations on rates and biomassremineralizers effort (led by Erik Buitenhuis)primary producers effort (led by Shubha
Sathyendranath)
• explore non-linearities in marine ecosystems (led by Dieter Wolf-Gladrow)
time evolution of model developmentsbacteri
aphytoplankton zooplankton
pico-hetero.
pico-autotr.
N2-fix. calcifiers
DMSp-prod.
mixed-phyto
silicifiers
proto meso macro
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007