6-Risk Assessment (1)

7/22/2019 6-Risk Assessment (1)

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Risk AssessmentConcept, Goal and Products, Tools and Issues

Lecture # 3

Dr. Imam Khambali, ST., MPPM.



Contents

1. Introduction & Definiton

2. Risk Analysis/Assessment Process

3. Goals and Products of Risk Analysis

4. Elements in Implementation.

1. Issues to be Considered in Implementing RA

2. Techniques to be used in Disaster Risk Assessment



Introduction & Definition



Introduction

Risk analysis is based on the recognition that

risk is the result of the link between hazard and

vulnerability.

The goal of risk analysis is to use this link to

estimate and evaluate the possible consequences

and impacts.

This involves impacts at the social, economic andenvironmental levels.

Hazard and vulnerability analysis are parts of risk

analysis and are inseparable activities.



Hazard A potentially damaging physical event,

phenomenon or human activity that maycause the loss of life or injury, property

damage, social and economic disruption orenvironmental degradation.

Each hazard is characterised by its

location, intensity, frequency and probability.

Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004



Vulnerability & Capacity Vulnerability : The conditions determined by physical,

social, economic, and environmental factors or processes,

which increase the susceptibility of a community to the

impact of hazards.

Capacity : A combination of all the strengths and

resources available within a community, society or

organization that can reduce the level of risk, or the

effects of a disaster.

Capacity may include physical, institutional, social or

economic means as well as skilled personal or collective

attributes such as leadership and management.




Ancaman Bencana & Rawan Bencana

13. Ancaman bencana adalah suatu kejadian atauperistiwa yang bisa menimbulkan bencana.

14. Rawan bencana adalah kondisi ataukarakteristik geologis, biologis, hidrologis,klimatologis, geografis, sosial, budaya, politik,ekonomi, dan teknologi pada suatu wilayah untuk

jangka waktu tertentu yang mengurangi

kemampuan mencegah, meredam, mencapaikesiapan, dan mengurangi kemampuan untukmenanggapi dampak buruk bahayatertentu.

UU 24/2007 TENTANG PB Pasal 1



Risk The probability of harmful consequences, or

expected losses (deaths, injuries, property,livelihoods, economic activity disrupted orenvironment damaged) resulting from interactions

between natural or human-induced hazards andvulnerable conditions.

Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation

Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability.or Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability / Capacity




Risiko Bencana17. Risiko bencana adalah potensi kerugian

yang ditimbulkan akibat bencana pada

suatu wilayah dan kurun waktu tertentu

yang dapat berupa kematian, luka, sakit,

jiwa terancam, hilangnya rasa aman,

mengungsi, kerusakan atau kehilangan

harta, dan gangguan kegiatan masyarakat.

UU 24/2007 TENTANG PB Pasal 1



NATIONAL EMERGENCY RISK ASSESSMENT (NERA) GUIDELINES SPECIFICATION , AUSTRALIA



Resiko elemen (E): elemen yang beresiko bencana :

Penduduk, Bangunan,

Infrastruktur,

Fasilitas penunjang vital kehidupan)

Resiko Total (Rt) akibat bencana :

Jumlah korban jiwa, jumlah korban cedera

Kerusakan bangunan,

Kerusakan Infrastruktur,

Kerusakan Fasilitas penunjang vital kehidupan) Gangguan aktifitas ekonomi

R(t) = E . Rs = (E) . (H) . (V)

Nilai Resiko



NATIONAL EMERGENCY RISK ASSESSMENT (NERA) GUIDELINES SPECIFICATION , AUSTRALIA



Disaster Risk Analysis/Assessement

as part of

disaster risk management process



Risk assessment/analysis

A methodology to determine thenature and extent of risk by analysingpotential hazards and evaluating

existing conditions of vulnerability thatcould pose a potential threat or harmto people, property, livelihoods and theenvironment on which they depend.


Living with Risk ISDR 2004



DRM Approach

Based on

disaster risk

management

framework




Risk Analysis/Assesment Process



Process

Risk analysis is a basic instrument of disaster risk management which is used

to study the factors of disaster risk and provides the basis for planning and

implementing measures to reduce risks and impacts of disasters.

Hazard Analysis

Vulnerability Analysis

Risk AnalysisInterpretation

Living with Risk ISDR 2004



Hazard Analysis

A hazard analysis investigates, identifies and documentsnatural hazards (drought, floods, landslides, earthquakes,etc.), their causes and impact chains.

Hazard analysis describes and assesses the probability ofoccurrence of an extreme natural event at a specific place,at a specific time, and with a specific intensity and durationfor vulnerable population.

Before this detailed study it is necessary to establish how

far population groups and their livelihood are potentiallyaffected.

If there are no vulnerable populations or elements at thesite of hazard, no hazard analysis is required.



Hazard Analysis

Hazard analysis is not a linear sequence of analytical steps relating to the hazard. It is

constantly being interrupted by steps in vulnerability assessment.

Extreme naturalevent as hazard

gives rise to potentially

damaging impact on

The information from these two analytical

steps is used to derive and evaluate the

probable damage

Hazard analysis investigates the extreme natural

event, its characteristics, its force, its potential for

destruction and its likelihood of occurrence.

Vulnerability Assessment investigates the

vulnerability of people and their livelihoods to the

extreme natural event identified as a hazard.

Vulnerable people

and their

livelihoods



The most important tasks and steps in Hazard Analysis

1. Identify the types of hazards. 1

2. Identification and characterisation of hazard prone locations.

3. Identification and determination of the probabilities ofoccurrence on an ordinal scale (high - medium – low).

4. Estimate or calculate the scale (strength, magnitude) of thehazard.

5. Identify the factors influencing the hazards (climate change,environmental destruction and resource degradation, majorinfrastructural facilities such as dams).



Vulnerability Analysis

Vulnerability analysis studies the ability of a system (or element) towithstand, avoid, neutralise or absorb the impacts of hazardous naturalevents.

Without extreme natural events as a hazard, there are no vulnerable

elements, and hence no hazard.

Vulnerabilities are created, they are the product of social developmentor faulty development.

Vulnerability is assessed by the potential loss resulting from a naturalevent.

Damage can be to:

Population (life, health and wellbeing)

Material assets (buildings, infrastructure)

Natural assets (woods, forests, agricultural land)



The most important tasks and steps in Vulnerability Analysis

1. Identification of potentially vulnerable elements.

2. Collecting basic data on:

Population: age, density, gender, ethnic structure, socioeconomic status.

Location: buildings, important facilities (schools, hospitals, emergency centres),environment, economy, structure, history.

Self-protection capability: capacities for disaster preparedness, emergency response,training, prevention programmes, early warning systems.

3. Analysis of factors influencing or resulting in vulnerability: Physical, social,

economic and environmental vulnerability factors. 1

4. Development of indicators for identifying vulnerabilities and estimating the degree

of vulnerability.5. Analysis of self-protection capabilities.

6. Identification of indicators to show or measure capacity for preparedness.

7. Estimate of accepted risk and residual risk.



Elements at risk

Building Stock Critical Facilities

Transportation Systems

Lifeline Utility Systems

Communications Systems and Networks

High Potential Loss Facilities

Hazardous Material Facilities

Economic Elements.

Special Consideration Areas

Historic, Cultural, and Natural Resource Areas Etc.



Goals and Products of Risk Analysis



Goals and Products of Risk Analysis

Risk analysis is not a static one-time process, but a dynamic process which isconstantly adjusting to changing vulnerabilities, hazards and risks.

Analysis of

vulnerability and

capabilities

Hazard analysis

and monitoring

Information from

emergency aid and

reconstruction

Early Warning

Awareness Raising

Use of concrete measure:• Prevention, preparation

• Early warning systems

• Environmental management

• Land use planning

• Spatial planning

• Cooperation, alliances

• Financing instruments

•

Poverty reduction

Capacity building:• Policy development

• Legislation, norms

• Community development

Risk Analysis



Goals of Risk Analysis

Identify participative possible hazards and vulnerabilities of population groups to

natural events.

Estimate and assess the probability of occurrence and the possible potential

damage

Identify and study possible weaknesses and gaps in existing protective and

adaptive strategies.

Formulate realistic recommendations for measures to overcome weaknesses and

reduce the identified and assessed disaster risks.

Ensure and enhance the feasibility, effect and efficiency of protective measures.

Contribute to the recommendations of the World Conference on Natural Disaster

Reduction (Yokohama, 1994), the Hyogo Framework (2005) and Agenda 21.

Contribute to spatial and land use planning. Contribute to planning for emergency aid measures.

Improve coordination and linkages

Integrate disaster risk management (DRM) to the various areas of development.



How do we define acceptable level of risk

HAZARD

Acceptable RISK

Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Risk

Geoscience Australi

Strategy on accepatable level of risk



SATGAS ACEH-ITB IWS

Strategy on accepatable level of riskOccurrence probability Protection target for

structural design (external force level 2)

Protection target for non-physical disaster protection measures

(external force level 3) Preventing

damage Reducing damage The higher the asset concentration, the nearer to the maximum permissible risk

Limit of disaster protection

Acceptable risk

Information-based measures

(Non-physical disaster protection measure

Maximum permissible risk

Massive disaster

No damage Serious damage Extremely severe damage Scale of external force

Structural based Measures (Physical disaster protection measure)

(WCDR, 2005)



Elements in Implementation

DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (DRM)

Risk Analysis DRM Measures

Hazard Analysis

Geographical

analysis:

Location

Extent

Temporal analysis:Frequency

Duration

Probability of

occurrence

Dimensional

analysisScale

Intensity

Disaster

mitigation

Planning

measures.

Physical

preventative

measures.

Capacity

building,

creating

institutional

measures

Preparedness

for disaster

Emergency

plans.

Early warning

systems.

Evacuationplans.

Vulnerability analysis

Identification of

elements and people at

risk.

Identification of

vulnerability factors

and causes:

PhysicalSocial

Economic

Environmental

Assessment of

possible damage/loss.

Analysis of

self-protection

capabilities.

Development of

strategies and

measures at

different levels:Family

Village

Community



Issues to be considered in implementing RA



Criteria for Determining Methods and

Instruments

The following questions should be explored before carrying out a RA:

Is there political commitment to DRM?

Are preventive measure politically acknowledged?

Is there financing for implementing measures derived from RA?

Does a cost-benefit assessment indicate a positive social benefit?

Or is RA more expensive than possible damage?

Is the starting point an emergency aid measure?

Is there an institutional and statutory basis for DRM and RA?

Are there developing and/or poverty reduction strategies?

Is the affected population motivated and interested in self-help?



Critical Issues

Political Commitment:

Defined institutional responsibilities for disaster management.

Political framework that permits democratic consultation and cooperation.

Results of RA:

Resources capable of mobilisation, implementation and application.

Results taken into account in spatial and land use planning.

Cultural Acceptability:

Promotion of self-organisation by affected population.

Promotion of traditional of local and traditional knowledge.

Ownership and Personal Initiative:

Emergency and food aid shipments undermining local resources.



Critical Issues

Interests and Perceptions:

Transparent information.

Disclosure and discussion.

Clarification of interests and roles.

Levels and Contexts:

Aim to reduce disaster risk at: local, national or regional level?

Product intended for: community (implementation), technical agency (research

and analysis), financial institutions (cost-benefit analysis, profitability) or insurance

company (tariffs)?

Inputs for Data Collection:

Over emphasis on data input or data which cannot be used later.

Little time and resources for evaluation and formulation of planning statements.

Less emphasis on agreement with actors on subsequent implementation.



Tingkatan Risk Assessment ?

National level ?

Provincial level ?

District level (Kabupaten/Kota) ?

Community level : Kecamatan ?

Kelurahan/desa ?

Neighborhood (Dusun, RW, RT) ?

beberapa wilayah administratif bertetangga ? (Contohdi USA DMA Act 2000, multi-jurisdictional DMP)

Tingkatan RA yang berbeda akan menggunakanteknik analisis yang berbeda !



Modality of implementation

Government conducted or

participatory/community process?

Outsourced (expert consultant) –

inhouse resources ?

Detailed analysis or “dirty” method

approach?

Risk analysis tools?



Techniques Used inDisaster Risk Assessment

(Disaster Assessment Portal - UN HABITAT



(Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk

Assessment Techniques Access model

A model that explores how an individual or groups relativeresilience to disasters is impacted by differences in access to theeconomic or political resources needed to secure a livelihood.

Computer assisted techniques

The use of computer software programs to automate steps of the

risk management process. For example the use of GIS andremote sensing has allowed hazard mapping to become morecomprehensive.

Cost-benefit analysis

A process used to select countermeasures, by balancing thecosts of implementing each option against the benefits derivedfrom it. In general, the cost of managing risks needs to be equalto the benefits gained from putting the countermeasures in place.

Disaster risk indexing

A quantitative analysis technique that uses statistical indicatorsto measure and compare risk variables.




Assessment Techniques

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) A policymaking tool that provides information on the

environmental impacts of activities.

Event-tree analysis (ETA) A consequence based analysis in which an event either has or

has not happened or a component has or has not failed. Anevent tree begins with an initiating event. The consequences ofthe event are followed through a series of possible paths. Eachpath is assigned a probability of occurrence and theprobability of the various possible outcomes can becalculated.

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) An analytical technique, which explores the effects of failures

or malfunctions of individual components in a system - i.e. "Ifthis part fails, in this manner, what will be the result?" Thelevel of risk is determined by: Risk = probability of failure xseverity category




Assessment Techniques Fault-tree analysis (FTA)

This is a graphical technique that provides a description of thecombinations of possible occurrences in a system, which can resultin an undesirable outcome. The most serious outcome is selectedand called the Top Event. The analysis proceeds by determining howthese top events can be caused by individual or combined lower

level failures or events. Geographic information system (GIS) mapping

The use of a geographic information system, a computer-based tool,for risk or hazard mapping. GIS technology integrates databaseoperations with the geographic analysis benefits offered by maps.

Geospatial analysis

Analysis of risk information by distance, area, volume or any other

spatial characteristic within geographic boundaries through GIS andhazard mapping techniques.

Hazard mapping

The process of mapping hazard information within a study area ofvarying scale, coverage, and detail.




Assessment Techniques Historical analysis

The analysis of historical information to determine levels of risk basedon past experiences.

Impact analysis

The practice of identifying and evaluating the negative and positiveconsequences of disasters on natural and human systems (i.e.,

environment, economic, financial, and social). Includes methodologiesand standards for damage and needs assessments.

Inductive analysis

The analysis of risk by integrating layers of information (e.g.,visualizing disaster information in relation to other socio-economicparameters by geographical features such as administrative units,ecological zones, towns and streets) in GIS techniques.

Participatory analysis A risk analysis which includes the affected people in defining problems

and needs, deciding solutions to them, implementing agreed activitiesto achieve those solutions and/or evaluating the results.

( h i ) i f i i k




Assessment Techniques Pressure and release model

The starting point of the pressure and release model is that adisaster is the intersection of two opposing forces: the processgenerating vulnerability on one side, and the physical exposureto hazard on the other. Increasing pressure can come fromeither side but vulnerability has to be reduced to relieve the

pressure. Vulnerability is considered in three levels: rootcauses, dynamic pressures and unsafe conditions. Qualitative analysis

Analysis that uses words rather than numbers to describe andmeasure the magnitude of potential consequences and thelikelihood that those consequences will occur. These scales canbe adapted or adjusted to suit the circumstances, and differentdescriptions may be used for different risks.

Quantitative analysis

Analysis that uses numerical values (rather than the descriptivescales used in qualitative and semi-quantitative analysis) forboth consequences and likelihood. The quality of the analysisdepends on the accuracy and completeness of the numericalvalues and the validity of the models used.

(N h i ) Li f Di Ri k




Assessment Techniques Remote sensing

Remote sensing refers to the process of recordinginformation from sensors mounted either on aircraft or onsatellites. The technique is applicable to natural hazardsmanagement because nearly all geologic, hydrologic, andatmospheric phenomena are recurring events or

processes that leave evidence of their previousoccurrence.

Risk mapping

A risk map is a map of a community or geographical zonethat identifies the places and the structures that might beadversely affected in the event of a hazard.

Semi-quantitative analysis In semi-quantitative analysis, qualitative scales are given

values. The objective is to produce a more expandedranking scale than is usually achieved in qualitativeanalysis, not to suggest realistic values for risk such as isattempted in quantitative analysis.

(N h i ) Li f Di Ri k




Assessment Techniques Social survey

A survey to provide information to establish the context inwhich the risk assessment will take place and the criteriaagainst which risk will be evaluated. Decisions concerningwhether risk treatment is required may also be based onoperational, technical, financial, legal, environmental,humanitarian or other criteria for which additional surveyswill be required.

SWOT analysis

A tool used in the assessment of organizations to captureand identify the organization’s geographic andprogrammatic scope of action, perceived effectiveness

and level of acceptance and support by communitymembers and local institutions. The analysis is brokendown into Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities andThreats.

(N h ti ) Li t f Di t Ri k





Temporal analysis

The basis of a temporal analytical technique is theassumption that observed patterns arise from anunderlying process. Modeling this underlyingprocess allows for the estimation of impacts which

best transform a map at time t into that at time t + 1. Vulnerabilities analysis matrix

A practical and diagnostic tool in the form of asimple matrix which measures vulnerabilities andcapacities in three broad and interrelated areas (i.e.,

physical/material, social/organizational, andmotivational/attitudinal). Other factors are added tothe matrix to reflect a complex reality such asdisaggregation by gender or economic factors,changes over time, different scales etc.)

(N h ti ) Li t f Di t Ri k





Scenario analysis : Deterministic approach

Probabilistic approach

Contoh Scenario Analysis : RADIUS Tool



Teknik/metoda RA yang

mana yang akan kita

adopsi untuk pedomankita?



Contoh-Contoh Risk Assessment

Method



Pedoman DMP dari FEMA

CONTENT :



Risk Assessment Process- LMHMPG

“H d Miti ti Pl M d E ”



“Hazard Mitigation Plan Made Easy”,

Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency

“Hazard Mitigation Plan Made Easy”,



Hazard Mitigation Plan Made Easy ,

Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency



Hazard-Vulnerability Analysis



menggunakan Risk MAtrix



Contoh Scenario based Risk Analysis

untuk Climate Change

dengan analysis semi-quantitative

Scenario: Inundation to 0.5 metres above MSL



Location: Nikau Bay

Scenario: Inundation to 0.5 m above MSL (i.e.

to just above most house floor levels) for 100

m inland (i.e. the first two rows of houses

behind the beach), but no major erosion.

The Regional Policy Statement has a planning

horizon of 100 years (therefore, likelihood is

evaluated in time steps up to 100 years).

Lik lih d



Likelihood:

Likely > 100 years

Possible 75-100 years

Unlikely 25-75 years

Rare 0-25 years

I /



Impact/consequence:

Human:

No loss of life, possible injury

Possibly elderly people trapped in their homes

Economic:

Negative impact upon regional reputation and tourism industry

Social: Temporary loss of access through the main access road

Infrastructural:

Water supply possible contamination, wastewater possibleleakage (public health risk)

Damage and disruption to road (temporary disruption to access

in and out)Geographic:

Possible wastewater contamination of streams in the bay



Level of impact for locality/hazard scenarioDesignation Impact Examples

1 Catastrophic•

Huge financial losses involving many people and/or corporations and/or localgovernment

Large long-term loss of services

Permanent loss of many people's homes; large-scale loss of employment

Loss of life or serious injury

2 Major • Major financial losses for many individuals and/or a few corporations

Some long-term impacts on services

Some homes permanently lost Complete loss of an important natural environment

Serious injury

3 Moderate • High financial losses, probably for multiple owners

Disruption of services for several days; people displaced from their homes for

several weeks; major impacts on valued natural environment

4 Minor•

Moderate financial losses for small number of owners; disruption of services fora day or two; moderate distress to some individuals; some impacts on significant

natural environment

5 Insignificant • Minimal financial losses; short-term inconvenience

Likelihood of scenario occurring



Designation Frequency Description IPCC definition

Virtually certain (> 99% chance that

a result is true)

A Almost

certain

Is expected to happen,

perhaps more than once

Very likely (90-99%)

B Likely Will probably happen Likely (66-90%)

C Possible Might occur; 50/50 chance Medium (33-66%)

D Unlikely Unlikely to occur, but

possible

Unlikely (10-33%)

E Rare Highly unlikely, but

conceivable

Very unlikely (1-10%)

Exceptionally unlikely (<1%)

Likelihood of scenario occurring

within the selected planning horizon

Ri k t bl



Risk table

Year Consequence

Likelihood 1 Catastrophic 2 Major 3 Moderate 4 Minor 5 Insignificant

A (almost certain) E E E H M

B (likely) E E H H M

C (possible) E E H M L

D (unlikely) E H M L L

E (rare) H H M L None

Legend:



g

E: Extreme risk; immediate action required

H: High risk; high priority for action, begin

planning as soon as practicable

M: Moderate risk; include in responseplanning, but lower priority.

L: Low risk; minimal action likely to be

required; monitor the situation

None: Negligible risk; no response required



Contoh RADIUS Scenario Analysis

RADIUS CASE STUDY(Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnostic of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster)



(Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnostic of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster)

Amankah Kota Bandungterhadap Bahaya Gempabumi?

Bagian dari International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)tahun 1991-2000 yang disponsori UN

Dilaksanakan oleh Pemerintah Kota Bandung bekerja sama dengan Lembaga

Penelitian ITB Tujuan Studi RADIUS : menghasilkan suatu gambaran skenario kejadian

gempa dan tingkat risiko yang dapat timbul akibat gempa dan menyusun suaturencana penanggulangan bencana serta rencana tindak lanjut (action plans)untuk DRR gempabumi di Kota Bandung

PETA-PETA HAZARDSHASIL STUDI RADIUS

140

160

180

200

220

240

g a l )



Peta mikrozonasi seismik yang menunjukkan

distribusi PGA

Peta Potensi LiquifaksiPeta Potensi Longsor

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Return period (year)

P G A

( g

Crouse

Joyner & BooreTotal

Seismic Hazard Curve (Sengara et. al, 2000)

PETA-PETA KERUSAKAN HASIL STUDI RADIUS



Peta Kerusakan Bangunan

Peta Kerusakan Jaringan Listrik Peta Kerusakan Jaringan PipaPrimer PDAM

Peta Kerusakan JaringanTelekomunikasi

Peta Kerusakan Jalan

SKENARIO GEMPA KOTABANDUNG



Jika gempa 200 tahunan terjadi di kota Bandung, apa yang terjadi?

Berdasarkan skenario gempa terjadi siang hari,

(hasil studi PMB-ITB –Pemkot Bandung dalam IUDMP-RADIUS tahun 1999):

Diperkirakan akan terjadi 5 type kerusakan bangunan:

Aman

Kerusakan ringan

Kerusakan berat

Setengah runtuh

Runtuh

Cibeunying Kaler diperkirakan mengalami 9020 rumah tinggal mengalami kerusakanringan, 4820 kerusakan berat. Bojongloa Kaler menderita paling parah dengan 8350anrumah tinggal setengah runtuh dan 8030an lainnya runtuh total.

Korban jiwa diperkirakan mencapai 2640 dan 21170 mengalami luka berat dari total2.4juta jiwa penduduk.

Kerusakan dan kerugian infrastruktur dan terhenti/terganggunya kegiatan ekonomi



Contoh Risk Assessment Jawa Barat

Proses Kajian Risiko



Risk (R) = H (Hazard) x V (Vulnerability)

Komponen Hazard/ Bahaya (H)

Geografis

Skala/ Intensitas

Probabilitas/ Kemungkinan kejadian

Komponen Vulnerability/ kerentanan (V)

Jumlah Penduduk

Kepadata Penduduk

Prosentase daerah terbangun (developed area)

Kemampuan untuk merespon

No. Faktor Risiko Tingkat

Kecepatan

Jenis Faktor Risiko

1 Gempa bumi Quick Onset Geofisik

2 Gerakan tanah/longsor Slow & Quick Onset Geofisik

3 B ji Q i k O t Hid t l i



3 Banjir Quick Onset Hidrometeorologi

4 Kekeringan Slow Onset Hidrometeorologi

5 Kebakaran Kota Quick Onset Teknologi

6 Kebakaran Lahan Quick Onset Hidrometeorologi

7 Letusan Gunung api Quick Onset Geofisik

8 Angin Kencang Quick Onset Hidrometeorologi

9 Wabah penyakit Quick Onset Biologi

10 Pencemaran Slow Onset Lingkungan

11 Kegagalan Teknologi Quick Onset Teknologi 12 Konflik/Kerusuhan Quick Onset Sosial

13 Tsunami Quick Onset Geofisik

14 Air pasang/Rob Quick Onset Hidrometeorologi

15 Bahaya Petir Quick Onset Hidrometeorologi

16 Debris Flow/Banjir bandang Slow Onset Hidrometeorologi

17 Abrasi/Erosi Slow Onset Hidrometeorologi

18 Kecelekaan Transportasi Quick Onset Teknologi

19 Gizi buruk Slow Onset Sosial

20 Gangguan Hama Slow Onset Biologi

21 Terorisme uick Onset Sosial

Komponen Hazard/Bahaya



Geografi Skala /Intensitas Probabilitas / Kemungkinan

kejadian

Prosentase perbandinganantara luas daerah yang

terancam dengan luas

propinsi

Besaran rata-rata propinsiintensitas bahaya

Jumlah kejadian yang merusak dalamkurun waktu tertentu

0-20 %

20-40%40-60%

60-80%

80-100%

1

23

4

5

Sangat rendah

RendahSedang

Tinggi

Sangat timggi

1

23

4

5

(VHF) Sangat sering, kejadian

yg terjadi >1 dlm 5 thn.(HF) Sering, kejadian yg terjadi

>1 dlm 10 thn.

(MF) Sedang, kejadian yg terjadi

1x dlm 10 thn-1x dlm 100 thn.

(LF) Jarang, kejadian yg terjadi

1x dlm 100 thn-1x dlm 1000 thn.

(VLF) Sangat jarang, kejadianyg terjadi <1 dlm 1000 thn.

5

4

3

2

1

Komponen Kerentanan/ Vulnerability



Jumlah

penduduk

Kepadatan

Penduduk

% Daerah terbangun

(Kawasan industridan pemukiman)

Kemampuan untuk merespon

Prosentase

perbandingan

antara jumlah

penduduk yang

terancam

dengan jumlah

penduduk

propinsi

Jumlah kepadatan

penduduk yang terancam

dibandingkan dengan

jumlah kepadatan

penduduk propinsi

Prosentase daerah

terbangun yang

terancam dibandingkan

dengan luas daerah

terbangun propinsi

Kemampuan merespon instansi

propinsi atas ancaman yang ada

0-20 %

20-40%

40-60%

60-80%

80-100%

1

2

3

4

5

<0.536 jw/ha

0.536-1.22 jw/ha

1.22-2.44 jw/ha

2.44-4.44 jw.ha

>4.44 jw/ha

1

2

3

4

5

0-20 % = 1

20-40% = 2

40-60% = 3

60-80% = 4

80-100%= 5

Sangat baik = 1

Baik = 2

Sedang = 3

Buruk = 4

Sangat buruk = 5

Matriks Risiko



Matriks Risiko

Faktor Risiko Yang Ditinjau



Faktor Risiko Yang Ditinjau

No. Faktor Risiko

1. Gempa bumi

2. Gerakan tanah/Longsor

3. Banjir

4. Kekeringan

5. Kebakaran Kota

6. Kebakaran Lahan

7. Letusan Gunung Api

8. Angin Kencang

9. Wabah Penyakit10. Pencemaran

11. Kegagalan Teknologi

No. Faktor Risiko

12. Konflik/Kerusuhan

13. Tsunami

14. Air Pasang/Rob

15. Bahaya Petir

16. Debris Flow/Banjir Bandang

17. Abrasi/Erosi

18. Kecelakaan Transportasi

19. Gizi buruk

20. Gangguan hama21. Terorisme

22. Sabotase

Matriks Risiko



Kebakaran lahan Banjir

Kekeringan

Pencemaran

Air pasang/Rob

Abrasi/Erosi

Gempa bumi

Gerakan tanah /longsor

Wabah penyakit

Bahaya petir

Kecelakaan

Transportasi

Gizi BurukGangguan hama

Kebakaran kota

Angin Kencang

Konflik / Kerusuhan

Debris Flow / BanjirBandang

Letusan Gunung Api Tsunami Terorisme

Sabotase

Kegagalan

teknologi

Kerentanan (Vulnerability)

21 43 5

B a h a y a (

H a z a r d )

1

2

3

4

5

Kategori Risiko



Faktor Risiko Nilai

Risiko

Tingkat Risiko Tindakan

- 20-25 Kelas A : Sangat tinggi Mitigasi menyeluruh dan

kontingensi planning

mendesak disusun dan

dilaksanakan.

Gempa bumi, Gerakan tanah / longsor, Wabah

penyakit

15-20 Kelas B:Tinggi-Sangat

tinggi

Mitigasi menyeluruh dan

kontingensi planning harus

segera disusun dandilaksanakan.

Banjir, Kekeringan, Pencemaran, Air pasang /

Rob, Abrasi / Erosi

10-15 Kelas C: Sedang - Tinggi Kondisi risiko yang cukup

tinggi dipertimbangkan

untuk perencanaan dan

mitigasi lebih lanjut.

Kebakaran Lahan, Bahaya Petir, Kecelakaan

Transportasi, Gizi Buruk, Gangguan hama,Kebakaran Kota, Angin Kencang, Konflik /

Kerusuhan, Debris Flow / Banjir Bandang,

Terorisme, Sabotase

5-10 Kelas D: Sedang -

Rendah

Kondisi risiko rendah

dengan tambahan mitigasidan kontigensi planning

sebagai saran.

Letusan Gunung Api, Tsunami, Kegagalan

Teknologi

1-5 Kelas E: Rendah –

Sangat rendah

Kondisi risiko yang sangat

rendah namun rencana

Hasil Kajian Risiko Tingkat Provinsi Jawa Barat



Hasil Kajian Risiko Wilayah Cekungan BandungK ota B andung

18 020.0

K ota C imahi

14.0



16.018.0

4.3

16.5

0.0 4.0

14. 7 1 4. 7

0.0

2.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.0

G e m p a b u m i

G e r a k a n t a n a h / L . . .

W a b a h P e n y a k i t B a n j i r

K e k e r i n g a n

P e n c e m a r a n

A i r P a s a n g / R o b

A b r a s i / E r o s i

8.7

5.04.2

11.3

0.0

7.6

11.9

6.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

G e m p a b u m i

G e r a k a n t a n a h / L . . .


K e k e r i n g a n

P e n c e m a r a n



Kabupaten B andung B arat

6.0

12.0

10.0

7.3

0.0

9.88.3

11.7

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

G e m p a b u m i

G e r a k a n t a n a h / L . . .


K e k e r i n g a n

P e n c e m a r a n



Gempa bumi

Gerakan tanahWabah

Penyakit

Banjir

Kekeringan Pencemaran

Air pasang/rob



Usulan Metoda Penyusunan

PEDOMAN KAJIAN RISIKO

BENCANA (ALAM?)

Keputusan-keputusan yang harus

di bil b l



diambil sebelumnya

Siapa target pengguna pedoman : Propinsi, kabupaten/kota, komunitas

Staf instansi pemerintah, konsultan, expert(academic)

Seberapa dalam kajian risiko/analisis risikoyang dikehendaki

Apa unit analisis yang digunakan : Batas geografis

Batas administrasi pemerintahan :

Propinsi? Kabupaten

Kecamatan

Desa

PROSES PENYUSUNAN PEDOMAN KAJIAN RISIKO BENCANA

No Kegiatan Bulan 1 Bulan 2 Bulan 3 Bulan 4

Minggu 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1

0

1

1

1

2

1

3

1

4

1

5

1

6

1 Persiapan x x



2 Pemahaman Bentuk Pedoman dan Kedalaman

Analisis Risiko Yang Dibutuhkan

x x x x

3 Pemilihan Model Risiko yang Sesuai x x

4 Pemilihan Jenis Risiko yang ditinjau x x

5 Pemilihan Indikator H, V, C x x

6 Cara Penentuan Besaran-besaran Indikator x x x x

7 Metoda Pembobotan dan Skoring Indikator,

Perhitungan Nilai Risiko, Metoda Evaluasi

Resiko, Risk Level Category

x x x x

8 Metoda Penyajian dan Pemetaan Risiko x x

9 Struktur Pedoman Kajian Risiko Bencana dan

Templates

x x x

10 Pelaporan x x x



Terima kasih

6-Risk Assessment (1)

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