6 Oct 2016 - Pacific Basin Shipping Limited...3Q16 Trading Update 4 Third Quarter 2016 PB Update ......

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6 Oct 2016

Transcript of 6 Oct 2016 - Pacific Basin Shipping Limited...3Q16 Trading Update 4 Third Quarter 2016 PB Update ......

Page 1: 6 Oct 2016 - Pacific Basin Shipping Limited...3Q16 Trading Update 4 Third Quarter 2016 PB Update ... This presentation contains certain forward looking statements with respect to the

6 Oct 2016

Page 2: 6 Oct 2016 - Pacific Basin Shipping Limited...3Q16 Trading Update 4 Third Quarter 2016 PB Update ... This presentation contains certain forward looking statements with respect to the

3Q16 Trading Update 2

Freight Market Improves From Very Low Base

* net of 5% commission

Source: Baltic Exchange, data as at 30 Sep 2016

Increased cargo volumes and improvement in market conditions since historic lows in Feb

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16

Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) & Baltic Supramax Index (BSI)

US$/day net*

30 Sep 2016:

BSI: $6,750

BHSI: $5,790

BSI: $2,417

BHSI:

$2,563

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3Q16 Trading Update 3

Our Performance in 3Q16 and cover in 2017

US$/day Handysize Supramax

PB TCE per day 3Q16 $7,040 $7,360

PB TCE per day YTD $6,400 $6,430

Market Index Rate YTD $4,450 $5,300

PB Outperformance YTD 44% 21%

PB TCE Cover Rate for 4Q16 $7,960 $7,460

% of Contracted Days Covered 74% 75%

PB TCE Cover Rate for 2017 $9,480 $11,410

% of Contracted Days Covered 18% 27%

201

6 Y

TD

2017

3Q

4

Q

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3Q16 Trading Update 4

Third Quarter 2016 PB Update

Put options on 2018 convertible bonds were exercised in Sep, to be repaid in Oct 2016

Reduced oil & gas, mining & construction leading to deterioration in tug & barge values:

Recent towage disposals expected to generate US$3m cash, but US$2m book loss

Additional disposal losses or impairments possible on our remaining towage assets at the year end

Continuing efforts to reduce our costs (e.g. scale benefits) without compromising safety & maintenance

Establishing new commercial office in Rio to grow our cargo volumes in east coast South America

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3Q16 Trading Update 5

Global Dry Bulk Demand

Source: Clarksons Platou, as at 29 Sep 2016 * Minor bulk trade: 1,870 mil tonnes

Iron Ore

Coal

Sub major bulk total

Copper Concentrates

Sugar

Cement

Soybean

Wheat / Grains

Manganese Ore

Forest Products

Others

Agribulks

Fertiliser

Steel Products

Scrap Steel

Bauxite / Alumina

Nickel Ore

PB focus cargoes total*

2016 Est. Total Dry Bulk

1,411

1,108

2,519

29

60

109

135

337

27

349

315

164

158

404

99

122

34

2,342

4,861

(Volume)

Million Tonnes YOY Change

PB

Fo

cus

Expected Global Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade Growth in FY 2016

4%

-2%

1%

10%

7%

6%

5%

2%

4%

2%

1%

1%

1%

-1%

-2%

-3%

1%

1%

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

-23%

2016 dry bulk volume expected to

grow 1% YOY

2016 dry bulk effective demand

expected to grow 1.8% (YTD: 1.5%)

YTD Chinese dry bulk imports

increased 6.5% YOY due to

Chinese iron ore & coal imports

Seasonally strong US grains export

volumes in 3Q

Minor bulk is not minor –

minor bulks & grain is 48% of total

dry bulk demand

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3Q16 Trading Update 6

Self Correcting Supply Factors

Source: Clarksons Platou, data as at 1 Oct 2016

New Vessel Ordering is Down

Scrapping Continues

Handysize scrapping (25,000-39,000 dwt)

Other dry bulk scrapping

In Jan-Sep:

Net fleet growth: 2% (Handysize: 2%)

51% shortfall in deliveries

25mil dwt scrapped (annualised 4% of fleet)

Orderbook:

Overall: 13% (Handysize: 14%)

Negligible new ship ordering

2016 2012 2013 2014 2015

4.3%

2.1%

0% 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Per quarter annualised

in % of fleet (dwt)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2014 2015 2016

FY14: 16 mil dwt FY15: 30 mil dwt

Mil dwt

9M16: 25 mil dwt

Fleet Growth is Reducing

Total Dry Bulk

YOY Net Fleet

Growth (%)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Lowest fleet growth since Aug 2003 2%

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3Q16 Trading Update 7

Dry Bulk Supply & Demand

Source: Clarksons Platou, Pacific Basin

Supply:

Estimate FY2016 net fleet growth about 2%

New deliveries partly offset by scrapping

(Annualised 6% new deliveries vs 4% scrapping)

Positive factors:

Fewer & fewer ships delivering in 2017-18

Higher oil prices reduces sensitivity of ship operating

speeds to increasing freight rates

Ballast water management convention in Sep17

encourages scrapping older ships & poor performers

Demand:

YTD overall demand growth: 1.5%, FY forecast: 1.8%

Chinese steel exports remained at high levels

Chinese imports of major bulk & 7 important minor bulks

increased YOY, especially iron ore and coal

Seasonally strong US grain exports

Scrapping (dwt)

New deliveries (dwt)

Demand Growth (%)

Net Fleet Growth (%)

Demand / Supply

YOY % Change

New Deliveries / Scrapping

Mil Dwt

49

-30

1.8%

2.0%

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2014 2015 2016E

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3Q16 Trading Update 8

Handysize Vessel Values

Source: Clarksons Platou

30 Sep 2016

Newbuilding (35,000 dwt):

US$19.5m

Significant gap between newbuilding and secondhand values

discourages new ship ordering which was negligible in 3Q

Current value of secondhand Handysize ship: US$10.5m

(13% up from 2Q market low values)

5 years (32,000 dwt): US$10.5m 5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

US$ Million

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3Q16 Trading Update

Borrowings and Capex

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Bank borrowings: US$642m , undrawn committed bank facilities US$272m

Convertible bonds, face value US$249m, book value US$230m

Vessel capital commitments: US$237m

Cash Position as at 30Jun: US$406m

2018CB repayment on 24Oct: US$124m

As in 2016 Interim Report

Update after the exercise of put options of 2018 CB

2018 CB

repay in Oct16

Page 10: 6 Oct 2016 - Pacific Basin Shipping Limited...3Q16 Trading Update 4 Third Quarter 2016 PB Update ... This presentation contains certain forward looking statements with respect to the

3Q16 Trading Update

Our Outlook and Strategy

Dry Bulk Outlook

Increased cargo volumes have supported stronger rates since Feb lows

Minor bulk demand is not so minor – growing & less dependent on China

Stronger than usual South American agricultural exports season in 1H,

followed by seasonally strong US export volumes, esp. soybeans & corn in 3Q

– but expect a continued weak market in the medium term

Scrapping, negligible new ship ordering & shrinking orderbook to lead to

healthier supply/demand balance in time

Strategy

We continue to manage for a weak market in the medium term

Fully focused on our world-leading Handy/Supra dry bulk business

Driving further costs savings, conducting our business efficiently & safely

Continue to generate cash from disposal of non-core assets

Astutely combining ships & cargoes to maximise our utilisation & margins

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Business Model Premium

High-quality predominately

Japanese-built fleet

Experienced staff, globally

Strong counterparty

Pacific Basin Benefits:

Now fully Handy focused

Well positioned

www.pacificbasin.com

More on financial details: 1H16 Interim Report

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3Q16 Trading Update

Disclaimer

This presentation contains certain forward looking statements with respect to the financial condition,

results of operations and business of Pacific Basin and certain plans and objectives of the management of

Pacific Basin.

Such forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which

may cause the actual results or performance of Pacific Basin to be materially different from any future

results or performance expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Such forward looking

statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding Pacific Basin's present and future business

strategies and the political and economic environment in which Pacific Basin will operate in the future.

Our Communication Channels:

Financial Reporting Annual (PDF & Online) & Interim Reports

Voluntary quarterly trading updates

Press releases on business activities

Shareholder Meetings and Hotlines Analysts Day & IR Perception Study

Sell-side conferences

Investor/analyst calls and enquiries

Contact IR – Emily Lau

E-mail: [email protected]

[email protected]

Tel : +852 2233 7000

Company Website - www.pacificbasin.com Corporate Information

CG, Risk Management and CSR

Fleet Profile and Download

Investor Relations:

financial reports, news & announcements, excel

download, awards, media interviews, stock quotes,

dividend history, corporate calendar and glossary

Social Media Communications Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin,

Youtube and WeChat!

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3Q16 Trading Update 12

Appendix:

Pacific Basin Dry Bulk – Earnings Cover

Our cover provides a degree of earnings visibility - ship operators typically face significant

exposure to spot market

2016 uncovered days excludes revenue days related to inward chartered vessels on index-

linked rates

Revenue Days

2015 data as announced at Sep 2015

As at 30 Sep 2016

Currency: US$

Handysize Supramax

1Q-3Q Completed Covered Uncovered

Contracted

FY16 95%

$6,580 FY16 94%

$6,690

39,290

days

34,720

days

59%

$8,820 74% $7,960

18% $9,480

48,860 Days 45,630 Days

36,900 Days

2015 2016 2017

100%

$8,070

100%

$6,400

4Q

9,570

days

4Q

10,910

Days

16,590

days

22,030

days

79% $8,400

75% $7,460

27% $11,410

20,450 days

26,980 days

11,390 days

2015 2016 2017

100%

$9,460

100%

$6,430

4Q

3,860

days

4Q

4,950

Days

Page 13: 6 Oct 2016 - Pacific Basin Shipping Limited...3Q16 Trading Update 4 Third Quarter 2016 PB Update ... This presentation contains certain forward looking statements with respect to the

3Q16 Trading Update

Appendix:

Pacific Basin Dry Bulk – Diversified Cargo

Diverse range of commodities reduces product risk

China and North America were our largest market

60% of business in Pacific and 40% in Atlantic

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Our dry bulk cargo volume (1 Jan 2016 – 26 Sep 2016)

Page 14: 6 Oct 2016 - Pacific Basin Shipping Limited...3Q16 Trading Update 4 Third Quarter 2016 PB Update ... This presentation contains certain forward looking statements with respect to the

3Q16 Trading Update 14

Appendix:

Fleet List – 1 October 2016*

Owned Chartered Total

Delivered Newbuilding Delivered* Newbuilding

Handysize 70 7 65 5 147

Supramax 17 4 72 0 93

Post-Panamax 1 0 1 0 2

Total 88 11 138 5 242

Pacific Basin Dry Bulk Fleet: 242

Average age of core fleet: 7.1 years old

* Average number of vessels operated in September 2016

www.pacificbasin.com

Fleet Details