5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I...

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Transcript of 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I...

Page 1: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

aisia sia ouxsiow 5lflM

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Page 2: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

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uGäspAeIA 922OC9Gq M!p anp2edneu &OMjp OflL fJLq WGS2flLG 04 LG2OflLCG !UGUa!A ! bXLJ

qost ASIC1G 040Db 0 0P9!U 214b MG C9U 2G6 4LOW LG&922!OU 35 flJS W!IJGI.9I bLoqncou 12 920

W!UGLSI2 U 4f JJJG2G bLoqncfou 4jänLG2 MGLG fiJGU ASn6q 9 fl2 !WbOL bucGa suq qqeq pA ie rra

COu2ps1Ceq ne!uä coflulJ-2bGc4jc bLoqncflou q949 4LOW fiG fl2 BflLGSfl 04 (4IUG2 40L J6 40b (M6UA-JLG6

LG2OflLCG !UGU2!O ! MPICIJ W692flLG2 fiG 2IJSLG 04 W!UGLSI bLoqncou lU 0Db !U .1 84 JiJ!2 !2

j 12 2iwbA s LGbIiC910U 04 LGäLG22!Ou J ' M!flJ 2Xb WGS2IIUUa LG2OflLCG iUGU2IA JJJG U6X WG9211L6 04

!UGU2!1 suq LA fJLGG 9f0U9 W69211L62 04 LG2OflLC6 !LIGU2!X jp& 4L2 L6dLG22!OU IU 9PI6 3 qeuoeq

!UGU2UA U 19P16 3 MG ao pSCfC 0 fiG äLoM4p LGdLG22!OU MIfi !U!flSl !UC0WG obGuuG22 9uq buwst) Gxb014

V P!L M9X MG C6C<G 40L LOPfl2fiG22 M92 0 LA 9IGLU9fAG WGS2IILG2 o4 bu•wiJ LG2Of1LCG

LGaLG22!oue !U I9PIG J•

0 pG oo 26u2!PAG 0 9 2!UäIG OP2GLA8OU MG 9j20 ow!Gq jL1•Uq9q 4LOW flJG e9wbIG U 911 04 IJG

COflUp)% WG9U 04 J 3J suq ! P9q pfap LG20flLCG-!UGU2A !U J aJ BGCSfl2G MG qiq UO M9tJ fiG LG2(1I2

fISU fIG UGX P!0P62 C0nUjL1 !U fiG 2SWbIG IqUq9q suq iopsao1e aLOMflJ M92 O.39 6j0M fIG CL022-

9uq jopsäo psq S DELL2 A91fl9 9poii M0 fWG2 p!8p61 flJSU fJ!2 flJLG2i0 9Uq epon M0 IW62 P!äPGL

fiG Uf1WPGL 04 LGaL622OL2 suq U !2 fiG eswblG 2!!G U LGäLG22IOU 15 IU 9PG J MG 40flU fJ9 jiiiqsq

O2GLA90U It DELL2 6XCG62 5(b4U)v()' IU fIG IOLWflIS2 SP0AG L 12 fiG Le2qn9j P 2 fiG IGAeL98G (

COWp!U62 fIGSG M0 !U0 OUG WG92flLG (DEIi2=L((P\(1i.O)v()) 911q 4flLflIGL 2nädG2 Gxclnqluä 9U

fIG WG9U2 lu fIG eswbie BGI2IGA KflP suq MGI2CIJ L6C0WWGU 9 29f2f C MIJ!CP pGA CSj( DEII2 flJSj

GCOUOWIG2 jG IGAG1.saG 04 911 02GLA9fl0U 12 9 WflIfASU.9j6 WGSSf1LG 04 fIG q29UCe 04 2 X A9I 41.0W

GCOUOWA jp6LG4OLG MG M9UG O änsLq 9as!ua fiG qGbeuqGuco 04 OI1L LG2I1J2 011 9 psuqn 04 1LJA

C0UGX4 2IUCG Sfl C0(1UL!G2 IISAG 911 GdflSI Me!aJ (U fiG LG&G22I0U2 MGfJGL fJGA 91.9 S PUA 01. 191a6

GXLGWGIX p!ap Le2qfl92 suq .(GAGL9äG, OU fiG LG8LG22!0u LG2flI2 .LP!2 !2 b9L!cnIsLIX !Wb0I49U !U IJ!2

9uq BOIIGU suq 19CWSU (.iaao bb 9-5)' jG PS2IC G9 12 0 GXCIflG Qp2GLI9f0U2 flJ9 IJSAG

0flj!GL2 EOL fi! MG 401PM 20W6 04 fiG bLocGqnLee qcqpeq u BGI2IGA' KP suq MGI2CP (.1a9o b 59)

Page 14: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

!UtOLW94!OU 4jJ9U 41J6 bLoqnc4ou ä%1LG2

suq w!u6L912 SLG 2IWbIX xGq wnçbje o bLoqncou SUXMSX' o ps 4peX wsX uo IJ9A6 wrtcp WOLGbsbGu J0LGOAGL' GXbGL42 94 4G fl 9f116911 O VJ!UG2 LGbOL4 flJ94 LG2GLAG 624! W9462 tOL wsiiA cotlu4q62W!UGLSI2 MG q!q U04 uq LG2GLAG q949 MflJ 2flWC!6U4 L62OflL6 suq cOnU4LA cOAGL9G 40 PG fl2Gttll OL 4P!2

MG U046 flJ94 624! W94G2 O W!U6L91 L62GLAG2 0UIt 26GW 40 G 9A9!ISPIG 0L OH suq a92 suq 9 6M WS1OL

L62OflLC6 MG9I4J 12 922oc!946q M!4J 2IOMGL GCOUOW!C 8L0MIP' poqua C0U249U4 041i6L LGIGA9U4 A9U.9pJ62

bLoqncA6 MGSI4P 929 W692fl16 O LG2OflLCG spnuqsucs V M!1P fiG 04GL WGS2flLG2 S P!P bloboi.fou ocsbi49I bpXeics csb!4aI suq U9411L91 LG2OrILCG2 MG fl2G fIG bkoboi.pou 0 U94flL9 LG2OflLCG MGSI4P !U 40491WG921LG fiG bLoqnc4Ae MG9141i 0 fiG Moqq1a GCOUOWIG2 suq 40 9110C946 4IS4 M691fJ SwoLia pnwsu

e MG 9120 exbGuweufeq M!4p bLsI!w!uSLX 9f9 qeAeIobeq 94 fIG M°qq B9u1c 4194 9446Wbf2 40

v 0flLfJ M9A 40 CIJ6CK LOfl24LJG22 !2 40 266 ! 2Xb LGW9!U2 2!aU!j!CSUI !U LGäLG22IOU ebec!Qcsfou2

enpeednGuf 9UUr1SI 6LOMp o -j bGLCGU4 bGL 1G9L'

!2 W6S211LG !U IOä9L!4FJW2 9 qonpu 0 fIG I9U 40 bobnisou LSf 0 !2 9220C1$4Gq M!fli $ Cp9LJ0G !U

Cl9tiG2 !U 8L0N4p 0 LG2b6CfF6I beiceu bGL XG$L suq -c beLcGu4 bGL 1G9L 2!UCG suq !U49U2!IA

bGLC6U$ beL 1¼69L 2!W!ISL ouG-249uqsLq-qGA9fou !UCLGS2G2 !U suq bXLI1 $16 9eeoci94Gq M14p

iu 2Xb p1 cue 249U9L qGA!9410u ! 92eocs4Gq M14p 9 cpsuae (LGqncpou) ot 2npeGdnGu4 8LOMflJ O -o•

LGboL4eq !U .L9PIG 3• Cc0Lqua 40 f162G COGWC!GUI 624! W9462' fiG wsäu4nqG2 9LG 92 10110M2 VU IUCLG92G

bqws LG2Or1LCG IUIGLJ2!IA suq 6COUOW!C äLOM4p IPG2G U8I1LG2 cOLLG2bOuq 40 fiG LGäLG22!OU cOGWC!6U42

.JJJG 0flL 48nLG2 ( 4pLOn8p 2) qI2b9X flJG b9t.si se2oc!gfou PG4MGGU G9CP 01 4G2G W692fl162 01

2dn9L62 LGaLG22!oue 1946k IU flJG b9beL

M!Ip LG2OflLCS spnuq9uce• jpGLGloLe' MG 1126 suq 9L69 bGL bGLeou 92 SU !U2lLnwGul !U 9 4M0-2496 16924

suq !2 uo $ AGL1 bLGc!26 WG9211LG o buwsL1 bLoqnc4ou' fiofläp I9uq 9PflLJ9UCG 46U2 40 6 C0LLGI94G

IUCOWG (ps !2 GDb) L94GL fJ9U 40491 GXbOL42 E!U9IIA' MG bLGIGL 2Xb 40 suq 9LG9 b6L b6L2ou P6C9112G

bojij!csi GCOUOWX G6C42 0 USI11LSI LG2O11LC62 ponq qGbGuq ou fiG MG!äpl o fl102G LG2OI1LCG2 !u 40491

!Li 4J 62b6C!9lI1 IOL booLek COflU4L!G2 MG bLelek 2Xb 40 bXl.J W9IUIX P6C91126 fIG !UIGL2GCIOL9I suq

buwsL1 GXbOL42 9AG 1622 W69211L6W6U4 GLLOL 41J9U fIG B11LG911 01 I"J!UG2 624! W9462 01 W!UGLSI bLoqnc4ou

f19U J,jE� MIJ!CP W69211L62 0U W!UGL9J2 suq 11161 bLoqnc4ou iu $qqf0U' MG 2fl2b6C4 4J94 W69211LG2 01

QI1L bL6eLLeq W69211LG 01 LG2O11LC6 !U46U2!4 ! 2Xb II 92 Gff6L COAGLSa6 ot bqw9O¼ bLoqric4ou

3 20M 494 0fli 9L6 9120 ucaal!AGIA 9220Cs4Gq M!fj.J 2np2GdnGLJ4 äLOMlpe

Page 15: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

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#JLOfl6P Q IU JG26 LG&62210u2 MG cOUiUflG o uq 2Xb SLJq 2ObE4 SLG eäu!C9Lic jG WS!U

SCpAG bobnspou L96L jpSU 6LOM#J beL bGL2ou (GcouowicsIJA 9C!AG 12 seenweq O PG M!flJ!U 9662 42

jo wscp pe oqäu 2b6c!c!ou MG L6-WG92nLG WG qGbeuqeu Asusple 92 6LoMJ bei GCOUOW!CSIIA

lu 40MG 6o psc 0 G2pW9!OU 0 JG O0M WOqG' !U AJ9U)qM' OWGL suq M6!l (iea)

uq flJ9 12 UO 2!6U!C9Uf

ASjflG %OL fl7,, qnuu6 OflL 2SwbjG (ao)' o w!4!69G bLoplGw2 2GWW!U0 4L0W LGAGL2G CSfl29l!lt suq 9120

M0G 9120 J9 fiG IJflW9U csbi9l A9L!9p1G ! 989!U U0 JOUOGL 2!OU!c9Uc lu LG6LG220U (3) MG L1 fiG !UU!SI

6X9Wb16 !U LGOLG22!OU () fiG -L9f02 OU 11A 2Xb suq 2ObEIl 9L6 L62b6CfAGIX .1 3 suq 385

{1J84 fiG L66L622!0U2 bLe%6I. fiG 2Xb suq 2ObE1 d9u.9PI62 0 fiG U9UC9 qG6bGUU6 ?9t49p162 LOL

MPICIJ WGS2I1LG2 09j p9UK!UO 2X26W I!9P!I!fG2 bine CI1LLGUCX 92 9 L9f0 0 CDb BIG OGUGL9I L62flg2 !2

9AG eepwsGq L68L622!ou2 M!flJ 911 %0(1L U 6 MG !IIfl2iL96 s b!Csl LG2AIf M!fi fiG hA A9U9PIG

suq rGA!uG (4683) juG 0L8iU9J eiqX couaqieq %OflL qGLGLJ WG92flLG2 01jU9UC!9J qG6beuu6 suq MG

lu 9PG 8 MG 921< 0M fiG UGM A9LI9PjGC bGt.oLw !U fIG bLG2GUC6 0 fIG U2UC!9I A9LISPIG2 0% l<iUä

2ObEIl 9120 LGW9!U 2iäUUjC9Uc

LGCGUfIA !U K66GL suq KU9C1< (4882) 9Li BSUO (1682) 1116 !uqex !26It !e P!6PI7 2!6U!C9U' suq 2Xb suq

L68L622!0u 9uq' u2G9q 0% pe boIiic9l A9qspee' sqq fIG uie 0% 19M !Uq6x (wGsenLsq !U j neeq

U0 Iou8GL eiOujc9LIç iu fiG flJL LGOLG22!OU MG qiob fIG !U2!6U!C9U LGOLGC2OL2 %LOW fiG 2GC0U

LGOLG22!OU 91.6 UL2 fi9 fIG flW9U C9b!9I A9L!9pf62 9bbG9L 1622 2!8uftIcsu suq eGcouq' flJ9 !uAG2rw6u !e

ebec!Ic9!ou' MIfI -L9f02 0% -53 suq 2ae LG2bGCfAGI1 JJJG M0 W9!U C1J9U662 %LOW fIG oLjOu9

IU 9PIG 8MG 2POM flJ9 2Xb suq 2ObEIl LGW9!U 2!8U!QC9UMPGU !UcIflqGq !U fIG B91L0 (4684)

M9LUGL (laa2Y

A9L!9p162 ucnqe pG 2Xb A9L!9P6 wGufouGq 9pOAG 92 M611 92 fiG 2ObEkl ASU9PIG %LOW 29C112 suq

LGOLG22!OU IU fiG QL2( COIflWU siiq L68LG22!OUC MfJ fiG 11GM ASL!9pIG2 !U 2flp26dflGLJ C0flWU2 BIG UGM

(easY IU 9G2 8 flILonOp 45MG bLG2GU1G LG2fll2 ESCP 9PIG C0U9!U2 fIG LGbjIC9fOU 0% fiG 0L!8!U9I

BSLLO (4884)' DGr0UO suq 2flWWGLC (4884)' K!u6 9uq reA!uG (4883)' suq IJ9U1<!M' 0WGL suq MG!I

0% OfIGI. enqlee jô oog s fI!e' MG SA6 iebcseq L6&G22!oU2 Low %OflL bleAlone 6wbqcs enqiee:

Page 16: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

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spnuqsu GC0U0W!G2 MIJ!CJ Monq pG C0flLJGL-GX9WbIG2 o oni 6GuGLs1 bLoboe!!ou LG JGL6 qGAGobua

VUOWGL M&¼ o sbbioscp G eqeuce !2 O LA o qGU4X C92G2 04 p!a.J-aLOMp LG2OflLC6-

9uq peu iii� MG 9AG uo exGu2!AeI? uAe2p•aseq pe be4owjsuce o pe 9uq-ueuA AsqspJG

2Leuafli 04 ewbiucsi 162n2 MB 9AG 4onuq 4B 21Lou862j LG2flI2 MflJ 4G bX1J A9U9pj6' 4O,OMG PX 2Xb

401 fiG 2Xb A9L!9P16 (Me PGl!GAG 92 WOLG 2!8U!UCSUf WGS2flLGWGUI bLopIew2) QAGLSII' !U GLW2 04

aLoMua LG20flLC6-iUGU2!AG C0(1Up.162 Me C0026 U0 0 21622 IJG26 L62fl1f2 PGCSfl2G 04 OflL bLG4GLGUCG

BO2M9LJ9 !2 9 492-äLOM!Uä L620(1LCG !UGU2!AG COI1LULA MIJ!19 92 weup•oueq fiG OfJGL fMO 916 210M

16a16221oU2 Pfl J2 LG2fl 2 2GU2!!AG 0 fiG bieeeuce o B0I2M9US' owsu 01 9nq vspis !u JG eswbje

Iu2IaUIc9U (ese iOieaiou •e 401 exswbs) ecouq' fiG A9L!9p16 !2 9120 !u2!au!C9u !1J COWG

spon 9 flJ!Lq 04 fiG COI1UfJ•G2 41.0W fiG 29Wb1G uq fiG pflLG9flC19C7 ASU.SPJG 12 U2614 20W61!WG2

slfJonap 2!fl u6as!A6 b914 04 fiG LGS2OU 401 flJ!2 LG2Iig 12 flJ9 fl2G 04 fiG pi1LG9flCLSC1t ASL!9pIG eIiw!u962

&0M4J LeaLeee!oue IU ISPIG .1' suq pflL69flCL9C) !2 ucnq6q' P9 2Xb C0G4JCGU GC0W62 !U2!U!41C9IJ

MGLG fiG GA!qGLJcG 2 20W6M9 MG9gGL E!L2f MG euq fO uq fJ9 M6U !UA62W6U 12 qi.obbeq 4Low IJG

e!6u!c9u b9L!9l 8220C!9flOU P6MGGU bL!w9LA LGCOf1LCG !UGU2!O suq 3LOMfl.e flJGL6 9LG 9 4GM C92G2

yflJ0fll W02 04 OulL GAqGUCG 4LOW fiG -J9 bGqoq anadee2 9 IiGä9!A6 29f2fC9IIA

2nqi62

OfJGL 2nqG2 IU aGueL9 fJG2G M0 ASLI9pIG2 LGWSIU 2!äU!4C9U !U pG bLGeeucG 04 A91!9p1G2 4LOW OflJ6L

obeuueee LGbLeeeuj 9qqifiou9 exbi9usioue 40L C1022 COI1LJp.A äLoMfi fi9 9AG U0 pGGU cou2q6LGq p1

ELOW fila PLG4 L6A1GM 04 OfJGL 2flqG2 0111 COLICI112!0U 2 flJ9 U9flL9I LG2O11LCG !UGU2! suq

bleeeucG 04 2Xb suq 2ObEV

2Q 04 211WWGL2 SUq HG20U ae,i) suq uq fii9 fiG edn!bwGu ASL!9p16 !2 'JO IOUäGL 2!äU!l!C9U !U fiG

11E2 IU fiG fJLq LGQLG22!OU' MG nbqe fiiG!L LGäLG2C!OU fl2!Ua fiG I9G2 9A9!ISPIG äLOMfJ q99 (AGL2!ou

flIG!L P92!C LG2flJ !U fiG 4jL2 coinwu: 9 aau!l!csur C0G4jC!6U OU EflIb 9uq EU iU2!äU!jC9IJ C0G4LJC!GU OU

2!au!4!csu L69Gq 0 fiG 2J9L6 04 !UAG2W6U 9xbGuqnLG2 ou w9cp!ueL1 suq ednbwsuc M LGbl!cse

IU 9PJG 4J MG L6-GX9W!UG fiG pXbope2!2 !U 06 roUa suq 3I1WWGL2 (aa.i'aa) fi9L0MfJ !2

cpsu6e 110W fiG ouaiu9j ebGcicsiou 2 fi9 bobnI9!ou 6LOMflJ !2 U0 IOUäGL eiuWcsuf

Page 17: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

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GXbOLj2 L96L jJ9U LGeonLce-6q aLoMip i9 9CCOI1U2 OL 2r12suGq p!ap 16A612 O GCOIJOW!C aLOMnJ

2n29u9q p1 pe A6L7 Lsbq qGAeobweu O 2flCP 6XbOL2 JJJfl2 GA6U !U fli626 C92G2 ! !2 W$Un9Cf1U•Uä

bLoce22!ua OU62 O 2!WflI9G I9POL-!uGL12!AG W9un4sCr1L!uä 6XbOI42 op 9AG p9q PG!L aLOMp

obeu ecouow!62 9O1 LGeq ou A!LnsII1 cowbjee LGG L9q6 S 1692f !U W 2GU26 O !6L0-8LJ.ll EXbOLI

ucjnqe2 49 qeAeobuä conuue2 AJ0LGOAGL PG2G IMO GXCGbf!0U2 9L6 AGLX !IIflW!U9!Ua 9O 91.6 AGO

CU 2Xb) IPG 9C p9 pGLG 9L6 out7 MO encp C9262 !2 O COflL2G 2fLJj(!Ua 2UCG JG ob dn9LjiG O 2)(b

is V1sIsA2!s suq 9flL!pfl2 (9o2M9us Monq 9j2 biopspjX PG ucriqeq MG 91.6 W122!Ua Op2GLA9lOU2

C9b!9 äLoMip O aLe9sL W9U 01 edrisi o O b6Lc6u bei suuriw tOL fiG b6qoq 18O-85 j62G COI1UgLG2

!uc0W6 < bGL csbifs ou bbb P9?!2) p9j MGLG !u fiG ob dnsI4!JG ou 2Xb suq psq enes!u6q bGt.

SA6 2fl2f9U6q pi3p 1GA612 O3LOMqJ M uq ouA 4M0 C9262 oqGAGobua conuu.es (q6uGq 92 48.J

GCOUOW!62 flJS SLG !U fiG ob dnst.pe 0 LG2OI1LCG 9flU9UCG (wGsenLcq P1 2Xb OL GXSWbIG) suq

Page 18: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

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s )i9L bL!c6 04 !UA62tiJGU00q2 9220C96 MI4 S IOMGL L99 04 !UA92W6U LGl9!A6 O 0Db BOW bL!ce

j&IoL (, )' P9AG 4Ofluq J2 01 2!W!ISL A9L!9pI62 fO pG 2!äU!iJC9Uq66LUJ!U9U2 04 !UA62W6U L9G2 M!W

!UA62W6U aooq2' LeI9!As o OAGLSjj bL!c62 2GAGLSI L6CGUf 2r1q!62 40L GX9WbI6 MSLU6L () suq

P6 !UA62W6U G4J9OL O flJ6 OAGLSjj COb G490L !U .1 O iiJ!2 A91!SPIG W69211162 bL!cG 04

sLJq SO 4oLrp jjJe ou sqqous ASL!SpIa !u W!2 as o edrisrious ! 1bIbO MIC i pe ioä 04 WG L9!O 04

1631622!ou 2!WH9LIA W6 62flW9G2 04 W6 aecouq 6dflSou UI1WGL f SLG !U .LSPIG e L661622!OU

fG 4L2 Gdfl9!0U 90AG 2 a!AGu jps UflWGL g 6C9fl2G Oru. bLG4GLLeq G2!W9G2 SLG LebOt4Gq lu ispie e'

JJJG LJflWPGL2 04 flJG2G Gd1194!0U2 cOLL62bOuq 0 LGäLG22!0LJ2 U fiG A9U•0u12 9PI62 EOL 6X9WbIG

= A° + A 2Xb + + + ('r2)

= + + + (ta)

2ObEV = + e *')Q + + 8'V\D + ('V5)

= + b *rio + + + + (ed)

= a° + + + + ÷ oci + (e5)

eu,cn1s1 woqs o pe bspMsl2 110W 1620fl1C6 9flU9UC6 0 thoivp

ewbie Gwb!ucsl woqe M6 A!6M flJ!2 W0GI 92 9 2sLfua bo!u 401 GXbj0LSI0U L9fJGL fil9U 92 9 GjUUA6

1G20flLCG-!UGU2! suq ÔLOMflJ nqeq pX iG LG2fl2 IU 9PIG J 92 MGII 92 0111 bL!oLe MG boenIsG S

ILl BJ! 26CI0U MG L) 0 922622 2OWG 04 pe b9jpM&2 pGpluq fIG UAGL2G 9220Ci9!0U PGIMGGU

26CI0U 3 b9flJMSA2 C0UUGCIUâ L62OflLCG-IUGU2IA suq ÔLOMIIJ

Page 19: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

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Page 25: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

I4ojea: j-L9o2 9bbGSL PGIOM IJ6 coeqeua

2IGINVIl-K 82 98 99 29 29 40E�BYb 0430 0450 0't9l 02& 0288

(-o48o) (a 85) ('!t1 o3) (9ao4) (ees) (zt)COU2SU -0949 223. 988 J543 J5902

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(-oo) (-o3o4)JJ2D -00J9 -0009

(J2) (52't) (na)Bflb 030 0350

(3395) (sea) (5955) (voie)MA086 J0349 8092 8999 13992

(e2e) (.e.i) (3942) (351 i) (3e)2ObEIl 34 599J 519 J832 5549

(-58o) (-s299) (-s9as) (-5845) (-5902) (-5593)2Xb -9850 -499 -2048 -809 -04 -2652

(r9n) (-5o4) (-!ro9o) (-es) (-28o5) (-253o)1ODb.0 0389 -0943 -J045 -485.1 -4823 -J984

(J•4) (4.5) (4•3) (1.4) (42) (.19)

ebeuqeu nsu.spIG: G.O98

.LSPIO 4 b'4!3I Y22OCISflOU2 B6P66U CLOMW (.iaioia) suq bu.wsI. eaonce 1ueu2X (ia..i)

Page 26: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

3?

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yAOLS8Q -59884

flu!46q yLsp EWR.SjG2 ,I080-.I690

VLSP!9 Ja.10-i 680 -09950

OW9U 18O489B 09810

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89PL9!U J021 688 f5933

jspo GLOMI3 S62 O12!X O!I-ECOUOWIGa I1O I' OflL 2swbIe

Page 27: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

voe2: I-L9!O 9bbGSL PGIOM BJG CO6WcI.6U2

2101WH 88 OO O3bBVb5 0450 0420

(-'ra 8)rYWD - - -0242

(-3093)bXI.J - -5188

(-54o2)2Mb - -Th45 -

2Xb -4e8. - -

(e2.e) (so) (2925) (2.so)2ObEI.1 34 2880 3058 593

(-so) (-ssi) (-3542) (-s.1 82)1GDbO -0843 -093k -084 -042J

(3.l) (m) () (at)

oebGuqeu ASLI9PIG: O.O98

IUGU2!O.gpie 3 vaoc,snoua PGMGGU i.op uq eeonce iu;euaiA na1ua yIGW3!Ae WGS2nLGa O bG2OflLCG

Page 28: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

voea: j-L9O2 sbbesi PeIOM ie coGLjq6u2

Il-K 22 80 el 80 85 .10002e8 0484 0208 049J 042't 02.I0

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(3852) (-seoo)2ObEIl 0O2 - - - -0588

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(-otoo) (-s9s) (-4oo) (so*t) (-oee)2Xb -0004 E -5J9 -5'192 .18260 -01't4 -

(."*e) (-ssoo) (-'te2e) (oo89)reobo - - f.48 -3.4 -0533 0004

(4.1) ('(5) ('(3) (r) (2) (49)

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Page 29: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

I,loiGe: 1-L9!O2 SbbG9L PGIOM W cOelQa.9Uf2-

11 2 32 328V 0244 04 0130 0Z09

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(-.i o2)1bIbO -0@94 -

(s4a)BflE� 0330 -

(2a2)2ObEIl 958 - -

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(-5885) (-si -359o)2Xb -800 -45844 -8850

(-232o) Crei) () Crsse)1CDb0 -JJ4 0394 0388 0549

(24) (23) (24)

oebGuqeu suspe: c3.o8a

jspe 2 Gqnceq-oLuJ ØLON4jJ bGäLG22IOU2

Page 30: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

enoiisup nema9vnI bns iliwoiD erti to miles aeIdhsV Islnemu,ienl .a eldsT

.np lnemieevnl to eelsmii23 VI —- - .rip3 rftwoiD o eelsmiie3 VI

(8OWI1I :eldshsV tnebneqeO) (p80W :eldshsV lnebneqeO)

(1.6) (C.8) (.8) (F.6)

t9.F- CQ&- 898.t- 0COJ (80.8-) (arr.8-)

080.0- 8.8- CB- , ce8.8- qxa (B.0-) (te.-) (0C8.2-) (e.-)

880.0 ' F8F. o8.r W3O8 (OOC&) (c80.C) (C88.)

- 8.CF t 8C2.F Q8OWMI (89) ('88.t) Z (9)

N rro.o 88C.0 k tar.o Iua

(8c8.r) (089.) (o.r)

- - B00.0- G8TT (Orc.0-)

- - 80.0 03M1 (Vi. I)

F'

- - oqIqJ (0c0.-) '

ece.0 81i0 C88.0 \re.o IA85I 88 88 88 0t >144

eriT .80WI4I el enoieeiei rftwoi sill ni eldshsv euoneobns anT .alnebifteo3 silt woled iseqqs aoitei-T :aetoIl silT .RU8 ai noiaeeipei fnemtasvni sill ni eldshsv auonsobne silT .Ok1AJ bns V8 s, atnemi.rdani

.oqaoj ai Inemuilani

Page 31: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

39it3 i39ibflI bnE t3elia betsmiia3 o !(l6mmua .' eldsT rtiwoiO no ytianetni e3luoesR vzmh o

tnGveteR tnernmo3 eietemwtq

caa.- t39,ia

rr.c- (X8 O +tO) o aaenneqo rlguoirlT

e3hq tnsmtaevni rguoirtT tnsinUia ton Fy ror.o ry Co tnemtaevni brie

brie y3613u691ud iiguoirll insoiinpia tOn

, 88C.O- t1i J Co tnemteevrii

brie eaenneqo riguolfiT (X3 e +) C1 Co tnemtaevni

tnsoftinpia ion 4 Co tnemiaevni i1guor1T

tnemteevni 229flfl9O iiguoirlT BC.O- qxe e +t6) Cy Co tnemiaevni brie e3hq

insoffingie ton Fi C88O- rp o yosioussiud liQuo,rlT

evods erlio mu2

.6 noieesiei moft nelst 016 e beismitas silT .6 eldat ni .8 noiaaeiei moit ne)lst 9,6 ao betemitee silT .eeioV noiaaeiei mo* ne(st 918 8 betsmitae silT . eldet ni noiaeeiei moit fl4J s,s a0 betemitee silT .6 sldsi iii

befsulsve ai (9X8 + Fe) mist silT . eldst iii C.1' noiaaeiei molt ne,lsI s's eçi beismitas sill briA .l eldet ni 8l .c. F- etsups II neem silt ts betsuleve nerlW to xa to neem silt Is

OE

Page 32: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

ieqs airli moi eetdshV rtiiw (reel) oris8 to noitsmla3 .8 etdsl

980O :eldshsV nebneqea

(C) () (F)

X2 (00.-) (VC.-)

I,l3qoa (r80.c) (e.e)

e8ITTG (C89. F)

888.0- e.o- ocao (e8.—) (1a.9.8-) (C08.-)

8BKF F88.a FaJ 0W32 (ee.o) (.C) (F8.F)

- 88M t.80- OIlcl (FO.F) (CF.0-)

888.F F- 088.8- 3XOXVO (8Ce.-) (8ee.-) (8F8.0-)

- F8.F- er.o- uoovi (08e.F-) (BF.0-)

- 888.0- 4- 82AB2A (ere.o-) (2C. F-)

- CEt.0- cro.o- v3aoclqq (C.0-) (FCO.0-)

- C.C c8'c.F 8OWk1l (lC9.0) (880.8)

- (08.C)

68.0 'VCB.O 8F.O £ .(bA 88 88

oC&F 888.r .V.O nseM 8C.F ¶9.t 009.F AMDI

ouT .(F99F) ons8 ni noiaaeigei o noilsoilqei iuo thoqel noieaeiei taift edT .aoaeulineisq ni SiB aoitsi-T :aeloM

ni anoiaivei bns (989 F-069 F nsrlt isrits, 98-O'c9F) elqmse tneieThb yl1rlila s 01 sub ,bsxo ton tud eaolo al noitsoilqei isbno3sa sift al OcOae .awollo% as eis aeldsnsv isulto silT .(8.8 noiaiev ow ew) sisb notaeH bns aiemmu2 sill

tnsmmovo9 Issi o oils, suit ai 3XOXV) .etsi Inemiloine loorbe yismhq sill 81 O'lI .etsi Inemiloine loorba S1SVS Silt aI UO3V3$ .qao lsei 01 (noitsoube bns ystilim sift no nibneqa gnibuloxe) 9riibneqa noltqmuenoo

ioq anoitsniaasaas o iedmun 9S1GVB silt al 82A82A .889F-O'VOF boheq sift svo aquoo bns anoitulovei o iedmun tnerrdaevni ItO level e3iiq (901) sift Ito noitslveb sill BSIUBBSm V3G0' .889 F-0V9 F boheq sill iovo anoaieq noillim

oilduq) tnemtaevni oilaemob eaoi lsai Ito oltsi nssm sift & 980WW1 .O'cQ F ni nsem itnuoo eao,o sift moiIt aboo9 bsnN bns isItseN ni beau 89 F iii xebni wsl Ito olin sift al £8.J5R .989 F-O9 F boheq 9111 19V0 aa lsei ot (etsvhq aulq

.(899F) oiis8 bns (pnimoorthoIt .899 F)

Page 33: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

ieqs9 irD moit eeldshsV iiiiw (CeeF) eniveJ bns ni)I to noiizmlla3 .e 9IdST

cIYD :&dsh6V trl9bneqea

(C) () (F)

.oaO.O- aceo.o- xa (C F-) (89.-)

ao.o i.13qo2 (CC68.C) (89.C)

CoO.o coo.o earrra (eC0.O) (888.O)

vcoo.o- a,coa.o- reoo.o- (aeOCC-) (CC.C-) (8CO.-)

rooo c.oo.o F800.O 338J (e8Ce. F) F) (8OOC.)

- 8CFO.O 1CCO.O YJJ (61E. F) (eCC.)

C6FO.O - O,cYJJ I)

eeo.o aeao.o iristano3 (Fcea.C) (8FCC) (9OO.O)

CFC.O 'c'cCO CO 88 ca >i-ii

4.8FO.O C8F0.O 18FO.O V.0 nsM OFO.O 81'FO.O CeFO.O AMOI2

xibneqqs ni noiaaeigei edio nois3iIqe1 iuo ai (F) nmuloo ni noiaaeiei silT .aoaedneisq ni sis aoisi-T :asoL'l (3neteianoo nisnism ot stsb 1ns8 bhoW mo) ao Issi o oI silt ei aoii snivsJ bns gni)4 to liv sidsi

silt isvo nsem slit ai Y.JJ .OVF ni stsi tnsmlloine loorba yisbnooea silt to ol sill al 332J .(buta Isnigno silt lihiw iii YJJ o sulsv erit ei OcYJJ .qOO yd bebivib yns,iuo aulq msteya gnb(nsd erit o aeihilidsil to 98 F-o'c9 F boheq

atnebitsoo tnsoftirigia :atluasi islimia evi snivei bns gni>I ni aeldshsv lsionsnlt islito erti rttiw anoiaae1QeI .O'V@ F

.asldsnsv lsbnsnft edt no atnsbfltso3 lnsolingiani ;9X8 brie l,13O2 no

Page 34: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

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u)c!M' boweL' 9U M!I (.10o5) nie LG2flI2 SLO CIO2G 4o fiG oL!O!usI' spon0p M!p 8 q!GLGu I!we beqoq (o-140162: j-L9!O2 GLG u bsLGups2e2 IPG LGOLG22!0U !U C0flWU (4) WSICPG2 fiG 2bGC!jCs1!0U !U ISPIG IA' bsOG 459' O

eievv .1 .1

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(-sefl) (o442)Cb088 -0200 0039

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(o542)DiJi498

(3048)2ObE14 5'4.14

(-5s o)2Xb -3412

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Page 35: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

,eqs9 eiñt moi eeldshsV riliw (FF) aiemmu8 bns QnoJea !o noismita3 .FF etdsT

:a9IdSil8V nebneqeO

980cA3o OWO 98-0eF 88-0V9F

() (F)

80.0- X2 (.C-)

0C0.0 113R08 (0 F.a)

8C0.0 £0.0 qAowo (0C9.C) (C.) C.0 880.0- ORJ

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FCO.0- C0.0- fnsteno3 (989.F-)

1F.O A8R ce 08 >141 cr0.0 aro.o .V.O nseM Cr0.0 0F0.0 AMOI2

sfsb 88-O'VQ F gniau aiemmu2 bns QnoJ 90 o noifs3ilqel B B noieaeigs fa1I ouT .asaortfneisq ni aoitsi-T :asfoll .(99 F) aiemmu2 bns QnoJ sO o .8 F epsq ,

F eldst P. noiaesioi of eaob 918 afluasi eriT .88-089 F nBI1J isritsi bnooea silT .(F99 F) aismmu8 brus noJ sO o xibneqqs orif ni betioqei sfsb rliwoi erif aoau noiaae1ge taift silT

silT .( F99 F) nofaeH bns aismmu8 !o 8.8 noiaiev moi sfsb rftwo,g befsbqu bns boaivei aiD aeau noiaasigei ant ,qIUO3 ;uiiwol9 eoio ,odsl ,ORJ ;09F iii 2.U Silt eiV-B-aiv ao iii qsg enli ,qAOWO 918 aeldshsv viofsnslqxe

bno tnemqhipe-non ni fnomiaevnl o noliosi! enlI .2314 bno ;tnemqiupe aidsiub 2Is3ubolq ni inemiaevnl o noifsi! .aeiubuita

Page 36: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

= (e)

= (2)

MLIGU !U !UfGU2!A6 IOLW 92MG &I1LflJGL 922flW6 1J9I JG2G 1flUC!OU2 916 pOWOäGUOfl2 O qe&ee 01)6 suq C9U P6LG10L6 PG

x = -eh' ) ('i)

= e(eW) ()

toIIoM!ua MSA

LGbLG2GU 1JG 21)916 O I9POL !U fiG L9qGq 26COL' fiG bLoqncou tflUCf!0U2 9POAG WSA pG ML!UGU !U fiGu GSC1) o fiG bLoqncou 4flUCflOU2 I,10LW9!Uä fiG O9l ISPOL IOLCG 0 4 suq lGUUä fiG A9L!9p16 8'9W011U ! 1( 2GC0L2' U0fl2 fiG LsqGq 2GC0L HGUCG fiG !SU.SPI6 H wnIbGe fiG wbO)iwGu A9U.9P162isqeq WSUflt9Cf1L!Uä 26C0L JJJ!2 20C( 01 )cuoMjeqae L9!2G2 fiG 9W0flU 01 GUGCfAG I9POL pA fiG 2GWG9eenwbpou !2 fi9 fiG SCCflWflI9fOU 0 cu0MGqäs !2 0GUGL96q 92 9 pXbioqnc o ewbioAweu !U fIGcsb!9I ASU.9PIG H1' M1)!Cp C9U pe ionap 0& 92 fiG 20C 01 )cuoMeqae !U fiG GCOUOWA JuG KGA

11)6 COflLCG 0 dLOMflJ !U file W06I !e Ispol-snaweufua 6C1)UIC9I cpguae MG UL0qflC6 9 1)flW9U

=(3)

= c(c') ()

ju fiG M0 26C0L2 flJ9f GWbIOA 9p0t. suq csbt9i' bLoqnqou 411UCf0U2 916 alAGu pA

COWG 90fl P6C9fl26 0 !UCLG9CGC !LI LG2Ot1LC6 bL!c62q!efucfou P6M66U LGCOI1LCG 00W2 fli9 COWG Sp0fl p6C9fl2G 0 q2C0AeU•Ge suq L92OflLCG poowe fi9C1)00CG flU!2 0 20 fi9 fi!2 bIlce GLW U66 U0 SbbGSL !U OflL Gdfl9fOU2 Jille woqGj WS(62 1)0LG20f1LC6 onbn C9U PG eoq OU M0LI W9LI(G2 9 91) GXoaGuofla M0L bL!cG 01 bL EOL COUAGU!GLJCG' MGGSC1) beuoq' MIJ!Cp MG 6U0G PA I�.• bLoqncfou !U flIC 2GC0L GWbIOA2 1)0 c9b!9I 01 JSpOL' 9Uq fiG2GC0L G2CLIG2 p ,, 01 ,L, JJJG U9jflL9I LG2OflLCG 26C40L bloqncGe 9 C0U29U fOM 01 1l9flL9I LG2OflLCGC !flCG fiG 2r1b6L2CL!b ,W,' 9 uou-L9qeq 2GC0L' 101 M1)IC1) MG fl2G fiG 2t1bGL2CUb ,Li,' siiq 9 U9flL9I L62OflLC6

JuG bioqncpou eiqe o fiG W0qG 1)92 fJLGG 26CjOLC: S jL9G W9Ufl19CflL!U 26C0L' IOL MIJ!Cp MG

i 2nbblA eqe

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3Q

C0U2flWb0U 9CL022MOL)(GL O fiG 1OnU8 ä6u619f0u COU2flWGL2 CSU 29A6 IOL LGfLGWGU 9 fiG oqq 19(6 01 JU(GLG2( (0 2bLesq01 fiG 1onuä fiG A9U9G PGIOM UJGS2flLG2 fiG 21!G 0 flJ!2 LG2OI1LCG (L9U2IGL bGL GUGCPAGLGAGUflG ILOW 2916 01 fiG U9(flL9j LG2OflLCG suq 2!WbIA (L9U2IGL2 fi!2 u inwb-enw 192p!OU (0 G9CJ W6WGLLGCG!AG2 9 M9ä6 MIJGU 1onu8 I( !2 9120 922flWG IU fiG pGCgäLOflUq fJ9( fiG aoAGwweu( 0p(9!U2 (G

COU2flWGL2 201A6 fIG IOIIOM!Uä !U(GL-(GWbOLSI cou2nwb(!ou bLoplew ESCP âeuGL9fou M0(2 suq

5 oewsuci euqe

'I = + (j)

= + p(Mt)t. (jj)

bqcG 01 fiG (L9G aooq1 b' ee o .1 pGoML9(G (G2G GdflSflOLl2 C9LJ pe n2eq (0 COlAS IOL fIG MSaG L9(G M 9uq b 92 IAUCfOU2 01 L 9LIq (9 M0LI919 MU•GU PGIOM Mifi p(M L) qeuo(u8 fIG flU COC lnuCfoUa EOL 8!AGU A91fl62 O fiG oqq 1691 !U(6L62(

CowbsMlou suq &LGG GU(L7¼ !U po 2GC(0L2 GU2flLG2 f19( (GLG 916 GLO bioe jjiGeG C0uqf0u2

csb!(91-lspoL L9f02 Li escp 2GC(0L9(GL !U (G WOqGI pfl( OUCG qe(eLWiUeq fiG ednepouc wwequs(GA SPOAG MIII qG(GLwuG fiG ednpu•nwjG buc9 01 WSUf1I9C(flLG2 !2 (IJG urIWGL9!LG suq !2 fJflC 26( GdflSl (0 , IIJG LGISfAG buce b !2 q6(GLW!UGq

fie bqcs b !2 fiG L9(i0 0 fIG buce o (G uou-(Lsqsq äooq o fIG buce o isqeq wsunlgc(nLee

= (o)

b = (a)

q62!LGq C9b(9 2(0Ck2GGCfAG M0L(6L 9dfl912 (G oqq LGSI IU(GLG2( 19(6 JJJGLG 919 U0 9q]fle(WGU( C02(2 !U scp!GA!ua (G(9( csbu(91 IC ewbioXeq IU G8Cp 26C(OL ab o JG bo!u( MGLG 4G ASIflG W9LäuisI bloqnc( 01 Ceb!(91 bei.

2!UCG (6 bLoqnc(ou IflUCfOU2 C9U PG MLJffGU !U !LJ(GU2!AG IOLW CSb!(91 W9L}CG( Gdfl!lIpqflW LGdfl!L62

= ÷e) (e)

(L9G 2GC(o192211 Wb(!OU fl19( (116 9CCI1WnI9(IOU O uoMeqäe C9b!(9I qebeuqe OU (IJe 29L6 01 I9POL ewboXeq lu fIG

H9A!Ua qeiieq 9' (IJG 291S 01 19P01 !U fIG gqoq 2GC(OL' MG CSU UOM 2(9(9 GXbI!C!flA fIG

(-eh W

MIJGLG IOM6L C92G A91!9p1G2 919 q6u0WU9(Gq !U flU!(2 01 G6CfA6 I9POL EOL GXSWbIG'

Page 38: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

2GCfOL

luG ednsou ueeqeq o ope ie woqej !2 ps enbbi1 wn edrisi qewsuq u pe uou-LsqGq

3 JJJG sdnpqnw

(j +)(j +Q)=b

N + + ) (4a)

pe 9qr12piJGU LOW oq o 1onua MOLGL2beu.oq jogs qwsuq ! exbLGeeeq bei flu! o GGCfAG 1h0flUa MOL)c612'Mf jPG GWJ 1+9t1 LGUGC!Uajjie ednsou GOM 2flW2 G qewsuqe 9CL022 fiG MO 8GUGLSp.OUC tOt. fiG uOu-4gqGq äooq !U S atAsu

couenwb!ou ot pe oq bet. 1onua MOLtCGLflU!2 o l¼OnUa MOLIC6L2 2bGc!csII1 !t C0 !e couenwbou o qie oq beL oq MOL)eL flJ6U H\H' C0 MOfl PGMOLGL2' filS W69U2 jS MG IJSAG O C0UAGL fiG exbieee,oue 4pS sLe IwbI!cIX u nue o oq MOqGLS o!ucLGsa!uä !u escp beqoq 2!UCG MG CIJOO2G 0 exbt.eee pe dnsuI!fee u eLwa o flu2 o GGC!AG 1onuaäGUGLSflOU2 C0Wb!C9fOU ! fJ9 M!fli pflWSU Csb!sI SCCflWflIS!OU' fiG 9WOI1U 0 GuGCIIAG ISPOL !

10 Op9!U 09f qewsuq tot. G9CP aooq !U su1 a!AGU beqoq' MG 2flW flJ626 qewsuq tt1UCflOUC 5CL022

(+)(+Q)= =j Q+) ( + (us)

(j +)(j +Q)= C =

Q(J4Q+ ()

F.

( b)( )= = + (4e)

= C = (+t)(J+Q)( + (42)

.Lp!e bt.oqncea fiG toIIOM!ua qewsuq tt1UC!OU2 OL 69CJ äGUGL9OU

+ bC1 + ( + b'C1 ) = + (41)

V8X fl = [iuc +blU(C)] + Q[iu(c) + bIu(ct)] ()

Page 39: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

(Os) 9— F)( )t =

gnuo o cfinu ni ci o tent ci anoitsupe cult o Jn1i, edt no inlet 8-F sitxe erit io noase, eriT () oa otoea bebsit-non elf iii ylno alehoW nuoy o afinu iii ci (,1) fud 1ymonooe eloniw edt iii aiel,oW

edt nitutiladu2 219)110w nuoy Istot o efinu ni ebia bnsnl tr1ii edt aaeiqxe of beoube, ed taum ylfioulqxe neflhw ed ns muhdiliupe bebsit-non edt 1evods moi bnsmeb bebsit-non Isiot ,o noiaaeiqxe

:as

( i+t)O _______

F (Ps) = 8 (" )i)\ + (' )i)'

— (+ rw) + + 1W

(ö+ F)(€+ F)

:es noitonu cliii ethw of tneinevnoo ci ti eoneieei ieflsl 10:1

() a = (O8,,) eoiuoaei Isiuten on ci eiedi eierlw easo edt io lebom silt of noituloc edt ,ebianoo iaii eW

,o aboo bebsit-non o eohq evitslei edt bns esw Isei edt snirmeteb 2F bns F F anoitsup3 .noitouboiq Istiqso muhdiliupe edt enicrnsieb nsrli OF bns 9 anoilsupe 1sohq bebsi-non silt nevi .1 tO aeutsv nevi

-non ,iebio tcii s ci evods (S 10 F) noitsupe tsrti teil ston 8 enim,eleb oT .,oioea dose ni coils, iodsl

• yd ylfioilqmi 8 io eulsv elsIe ybseta s enfteb nso ew tent oc ,8 ni noitsupe eoneieThb isenil yllsool els 8 io aeitqmi noitsupe alIt felt aoimsnyb edt i eec of )1oerio WOfl 9W 1ievewoH .O=(8,U8lO,O)4

efsluolso SW cuD eec oT .eldsta

(.w) — (Cs) ("8+ F)(ö+ F)(+ F) 1'q

(" )k)

.evifiaoq yheelo ci noiaaeiqxe eniT .eno bns oie neewled aeil evifsvheb cult felt aeiupei yfulidsta IsooJ bns loisiemun rifod aeilqitlum eno I .ysw niwollo silt ni neec ed nso as 1eno nerD acel oats ci tI

gnmee$R .,ofoea bebsif-non edt ni nouiouboiq lstot alsupe ,oisnimoneb silt nerD ,(8-t)H yd ,oisnimoneb eblo edt yd aboo9 bebsii-non o nolfqmuanoo Istof aemooed iotsiemun edt ,8 F noiisupe of bsd

beeoxe faum noifouboiq Istot eoni8 .sno nerD ceel ci ilouniw ,(8+t\(8-F) 1miet s yd beitqittum 1noiisienep noiaceiqxe edt bns iotsiemun silt beeoxe teum ioisnimoneb silt 1noitslene9 ieblo edt yd noitqmuenoo

.eno nsdt aael ed faum

s QniwoIIo mundiliupe wen afi of ylsisibemmi qmuj ton 111w 8 nl9uodtls tsrlf aeetnssu ytitidst2 qeta-yd-qeta oimsnyb griiwollo! 8 rthw 1eiomierthuR .noirlast qsta yd qefa s iii yIIsubsi oc ob 111w fi 1)1oodc

qefa-yd-qeta oimsnyb woIlo ode 111w ,H 1eldshsv Istiqso nsmud silt tsrtt 8 moil neea ed nso ii ,inemfaubs instanoo edt is ylauounhtnoo W019 nerD 111w H 1eutsv eista ybseta wen cli berlosei esd 8 eonO .inemtaujbs

.8 9151

ci H 93fl0 iii enoitsupe edt moi aeldshsv yeI isilto o rIiwoi eenimeieb nerli H o dtwoi ode 111w aiofoea owl elf ni a)1ooia Isfiqso silt eulsv sista ybsele eti ts bexit ci leati 8 bns 8 etsi is 9niwo1

nifod bns 1eno eeieb o auoneomod sis anoiionLft noitouboiq elf sonic 1e,ormedtiu .8 stel is woi

8C

Page 40: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

ipla CSU G 2GGU pX q!GLGUf8Uä 4IJG GXbLG22IOU 0L GDb !U edns4!ou 51 M!4jJ LG2bGC4 40 '

LG2OIILCG COb lu D6L0g j gebGug2 OU fiG CSO4S !U46U2!416? 0 fiG 4M0 26C40L2b10b02!410U JuG GGC4 O S LI.29 U 4JJG U94flLS LG2OflLCG GU0MWGU4 !U bGLJ•Oq 4 OU fiG IGAGI o

fiG ecouowX Mill dLOM 2IOMGL fJ9U 2!W1191 GCOUOWIG2 M!4p0fl4 I.G2OflLC6 p00w2aL9qnsI 40 9 OAGL9I1' 8 M!Il 9ll PGIOM e 0L 2GAGL9I beuoq2 9GL fiG LG2OflLCG P00W !U beqoq 4 SUqsuq 4G uqLGc4 6GCf M0(2 4o qebLG2a e VJGL beuoq 5' fiG qAuswics o e 49(G OAGL suq 8 LG4I1W2bGqoq 5 B'4 4 !2 CIGSL 4I94 8 Mifi G 1622 SU e' GC9fl2G fiG qiec qswsuq 6GC4 SUU04 t911 PGI0M 0'4PI' MG CSUUO4 e29pI!2p MGfJGL GXCG62 e GAGU jponap 4GLG ! fiG sqqfous eecj qGbLGSeIuä e !LLGesLqLia !U4GL-4GWbOLSI COU2flWb41OU 2WOOfi!Ua' MG CSUUO4 6249P112p MP!CP OUG 12 lsLaGL B6Sfl2G 0

2!UC6 fIG W9U4flG 0 41JG qL6C qewsuq 6GC42 U fIG 4M0 bGuoqe qGbeuq ou bLGtGLGUCG2

LGI9AG 40 fiG C92G M6LG 4IJGLG !2 U0 LG2OI1LCG pOOW

pips M6Iap lu ecouowX-Mqe qewsuq ip! G6C4 92o 2GtJG2 40 LSI2G qewsuq 0L fiG U0U-4L9G aooq4GL6 Mlii G 1G22 GGC4!AG onuä !U b6qoq suq qewsuq pX fIG MGSI4P!GL oq äGUGL9fOLI MIII csuN sMIII 9C4 4o qGbLG22 6 L6JSfAG 40 8, B4 fJGLG !2 9120 9 2GC0U 6116C4 !U beLoq s j94 !' MUP IOMGL 1ioua 92 4pX abeuq 2OWG o pei IJ!6P9L MGS(fi ou uoU-41.SqGq aooq2 u bGuoq s' 4P!2 qc qwsuq G446C4fIG LG2OflLCG P00W !U beLoq 4 0M' 46 P6UGUC!9U.92 01 fiG LG2OI1LCG P00W 919 fiG 0I6L äGUGLS4!0U V!WbI!c!4I p (O'b1'e3'e1) = 0 IPGLG 12 9ä9!U q!Lec4 qewsuq GUGC4 OU uou-4LsqGq äooq2 !U beqoq LOW26C401 40 4)16 U0U-419q6q 26C40U j)194 12' 8 Mlii PG IOMGL fliSU 8n IU beuoq ' e M pG qeeiwicqucL6926q MGSI4IJ lu 4)16 QL24 b6Loq OU uou-4LgqGq aooq2' qwsuq MIII L126 suq L9M ISPOL 41.0W 4116 4LSqGqM69141J!6L !U bGLoq 4 p6C91126 044)19 L62OI1LCG P00W' 92 iouä 92 fleX M!211 40 ebeuq 20W6 044)1611pX e, u beLoq 4' e Mifi G q64GLWueq !WbI!C!41X pX (I�1O8J8n) = if MJ4P 4)16 XouluaeL aeUGLs41OubGLoq 0 fiG 2)1916 04 I9POL !U WSUnISC4nL!ua euq 4)1GLG4OLG fIG äLOMfl.J 044)16 GCOU0WA M!II pe qG46LUJUGq

boelf lAG suq 911 04)161 ,2 916 if 14911 M0L bL)c62 916 C0U249U4' qflLua 4)16 beuoq nb 40 suq ucnqueIP!2 CSU p€ 6249pi2)JGq pX COLJ2IqGL!Ud 4)16 G%46C42 049 0U6 21104 LG2OIILCG pOOW 2flbbO2G 12

26A6L8I beuoge 944614)16 P00W 4)1SU O4PGLM!2G IgGU4IcSI GCOUOWIG2 M1•fJ U0 LG2OflLCG poow

bLODO2!4!OU 4 ECOtIOW!62 4)194 6XbGLIGUCG 9 4GWbOL9LA LG2OflLCG P00W MIII IJ9AG IOMGL L94G 04 ÔLOM4p IOL

MJ4P 4)16 woqe qG2cLipGq !U 4)16 GdflS4!0U2 90AG' MG CSU UOM 6249p112)1 fiG W9!U bloboe!4!ouS

cob + + - (32)

edrs4!ou 53 suq LG9LL9UG 40 Op4SiU10 6A9Ifl9fG 6446C42 ou 4)16 IGAGI' 92 obbo2eq 40 4)16 &OMfi' 04(3Db' MG 2np24!4n46 401 K suq K !L

94 L946 09' M)JGL6 a 12 fiG 1L9C410U 04(3Db lU 811 26C4012 0fl42q6 4)16 uS4flLSI-L62OflLcG eec4oLäLOM2 94 L94G 8 B6C9fl26 044)16 bloaGuce 044)10 UOU-th.OMIUä LG2OflLC6 2GC4OL pOM6AGL' 4049 (3Db äLOM22!UCG 911 40LW2 GXC6b4 äLOM 94 L946 8 lU 4)16 24G9qX 24940' U 2 CIG9L 4)1944)10 UOU-LG2OflLCG GCOUOWX 9120

COb = + + + (5'l)

10 GASIfl94G COb aLoM4p MG fl26 4)16 49C40L !UCOWG qocowbo2jou 04 CDb

49C40L2 916 aLOM!ua 94 L946 8 on4bn4 !L P04)1 26C4012 MIII aLOM 94 (916 9

Page 41: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

to

4OLWGLIA psq PG LG2OflLCG P00W M!II 9AG 9 beLwsueufIX IOMGL IGAGI 0400bbo!u4 C 249L4!ua s bo(u4 D 4iG 4M0 GCOUOW!62 98!U SA6 G 29W6 äLOMflJ L949 pfl4 11.16 GCOLIOWA MP!CIJ

b6oq 0% 210M6L dLOMflJ' 20 flJS4 4 12 bo2aIpIe %OL 0Db 404911 GI0M flJ9404 fiG 041J6L 6C0U0W7 !ne4Ls4Gq p7IGAGI 040Db !U OLIG GCOLIOWA 40 U•26 wWeqs46)¼' 29A 40 botUl B Bill fiG LG2OI1LCG P00W 9120 fl21.JGL2 !U S0Db 40110M2 fiG 24L9!ãpl pUG G4MGGU bolulS Q suq y jGU' 94 4!WG 4' fiG LGSOI1LCG P00W C9fl292 fiGQäflLG BE IU!fSIIX' pOfi GCOUOWIG2 24914 MIlls 4JG 29WG I9AGj suq aLoMfi L946 04 eDb' 20 flJS4 fiG IOä 04poowua ecouowX jJJ12 C926 04 IoUa-Lnu !WWI2GLSP.OU 929 1921114 049 LG2O11LCG P00W 12 n24s4sq lu!U!fl9iIl' fl4 LG(1CG fiG äLoM4p L949 p1 GUOflap 41J4 fiG IGAGI 040Db GAGUlnsiil 49112 PGIOM flJ94 049 UOU-

II ! boe2piG 4p6u' IIJSI fiG 4flfl 6446404 41JG OUG-2p04 LG2OI1LCG P00W 2 40 L9126 fiG 1GAGI 040Db

aLOMflJ MIII PG 2IOMGL !U fiG !UIGLAGU!LJa bsLoq

40 fiG 24G9q1 24946 IGAGI' Pfl4 04 CO11L2G' f1W9U CSb!49i 9CCflWfli9p.OU' bplt2!csI csb!lsi 9CCflWfli9foU' SuqSCCnWfli9l!0U MIII 9ä9!U P IOMGL !U beuoq JJJGLGS44GL' 92 qG2CU•peq 9pOAG' 8 M!ii CIIWP dL9qfl9A psc4PG LG2O11LCG pOOW JjiIe WGSU2 fi94 e Mfl SäS!U PG IOMGL 4jJSU OfiGLMl2G suq IJfIW9U c9bi9ibeuoq 5' fiG MG9IfJ!GL äGUGL94!OU M!fl 24111 G I!A!ua !U beuoq 3' suq qewsuq M!Ii 24111 PG IJ!äIIGL BJ9U MIIP0flIIJ9AG PGGU M!fliofll fiG LG2OflLCG p00w EflLIPGLwOLG' GAGU pon8p fiG LG2O11LCG P00W MIII 9AG uqeq pXflW9U csbisj suq 414flLG äLOM4p MJIIJ IOMGL 1$ flW9U CSb!ISI Mlii PG IOMGL !U beuoq 5 49U II M0flj

jpe CIJSUäG !U 2GCIOL9I 6WbI0WGU1 MIII $120 9AG 9 WOIG bLoouä6q 644GC4 0U SCC11WflISIIOU 04

6wbioAw6U IU W9U114SC4flLIUä Mlii IOMGL 0DbWSUfl49CI11L!Uä 26C40L' IIJGU fiG L!2G !U GwbioXwGu4 !U f194 26C40L Mlii L912G 0Db p1 WOLS fJ9U fiG qcpue IU!UIGU2!fG2 !U fiG 4M0 2GC40L2 EOL GXSWbIG' It fiG UOU-4LSqGq 2GC4OL ! WOLG csbIlsi IulGue!AG fiSU fiG494 fiG qGCIUG U 9 Mfl IJSAG 9 C0U4GWbOL9UGOfl2 G44G4 OU fiG IGAG1 040Db qGbGuquä ou fiG Csb!ISI19P01 410W fiG W9Ufl4SC1fl14IJ 2GC4OL' 4S4 12' 9 MIII GCflUG MG CSU 266 410W fiG qsufou 040Db 9P0IGqewsuq lu bGL!oq ' suq 2OWG 0441.16 ucLG92Gq qewsuq MIII 4S11 OU fiG U0U-4L9G aooq 11112 Mlii L9MLG2OflLCG P00W SLG 4L9U246LLG 40 fiG onuaGL aGueLs41ou !U bauoq f IPG uclesse !u MGSifi M!II 191262flP4IG suq bLoou8Gq 6446C4 OU aLoMjp !U 2np2GdnGu4 beqoq2 164,2 anbboae fJ$4 fIG bLoceeqe 410W fiG

jjiG 0U6-2p04 1426 IU Mlii 0% COflL26 qL6C4J1 !UCLG92G 0Db IU bGqoq 4' p114 II Mlii 9120 9AG 9 WOLG

0Db = + + - (as)

suq 944GL eflpelllflfUä 401 K suq i( suq LGSLLSUa!ua' MG pSAG:

(53j.

qecowboe4Iou 0440491 0Db'U9I11LSI LGSOI1LCG' IU beqoq eC9liluä fIG Gd11S4IOu2 41.0w 9pOAG' MG 9AG fiG 49C401 !UCOWG

MG C9U UOM M9i flWnap MIJ94 pSbbGUe MGU 41.J12 GC0U0W1 92 S Oue-2p04 IUCLG92G !U fiG

£PG 44GC4 049 I2G IU b

fIG L62O11LCS 6U0MWGIJ4 It fiG LJ0u-4LgqGq CGC4OL 12 WOLG ceblisi !U46U2!A6 fisU 4P6 IL9qGq 26C40L'

IWOM ow bLoboe!llou 4 494 q9Jq IC UGäSI!AG HGUCG U0U-LG2O11LCG 0Db MIII !U!f9ii 1126 M!IP 9 1426 IUfiG G44GC4 049 1126 IU OU UOU-LG2O11LCG 0Db IC 8iAGu pX fiG aecouq 4GLW OU fiG U8p4 isuq 2!C6 MG

______ gl= '1 + (*+)—-(-) (egeob

Page 42: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

!W JJ92 210bC 0-3 uq -L910 OT-3q2) uq pc 2LG OIWLJ LC2OIUCC GXb0L2 W 0DB !U JJ (JJ0I4S0UW XJ2) JJJC LC&C220U

E! J JJJC 2nubJc oci ou p/Accu op bcL-cb! pwccu s'uq j (AcucJ

0

00038 O88O

000

00

0

0

0

0 000

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0

0

—3OO -

EB3 -

0

0

p00

0

0

008 00

0

0 0

0

0

0

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COIULOJ2 9L IICOIq 2ObEJ4 911q 2 LcboLcq 2 LCLg22JOU 3J !"WPJC 3q2)miq c 29iG oI WL9J L2OrrLcc GXb0142 W 0DB !11 JJ (JJO4SOUJ aX12) JJJG LCLG22OUE' 5 jpc biij 2ocJpou p!ccu toiip bcL-c9br pwccu jjj suq Jg (AcI.1c9J

C0GJ = -29e833 26 = 85'J8O2f =

-3a826( exb I X )

0 0 o0

0 0

ØD

0 0

aaoe

0

0

a,

n_i(0

><

-3533T T

-

0 000 0 000 0 0

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00

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Page 44: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

CO1JLOJ2 OL !Uf !IJCOUJG iq 2ObEI4 9'IJq !2 L;boLcq 2 LC&C22!OU 33 U P! 39x12) suq pc 2J39'LC OIIJtUcLI bLOqnCOu !U 0Db 1J JJ (pOL1OUS'J 9X12) jjsc Lc1c22!Ou

3 jyc bm.pj s2ocriou pccu .tozqJ bGL-cb pcccu jj uq (Ac14!csJ

000 00 0 0 o0 0

0 00000

0 00 0

6( 2UL I X )

CO6 —3•555 26 = = —51

—U8II0000 0 0 00

0

0 0

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.115oa

0 0

C,

C,rIJ(0

>(

8 0 0 00

0 0 00 00

-315a8 -

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Page 45: 5lflM sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · 5lflM ouxsiow sia aisia JA$IUTAM HD$11JO2I HDMAQMIJflA UMA DIMO14ODH HTWO$IO 5ñ13t .U ad32 wthnA .M 13nuW nthoW iqa 8QC JAT4OITAM

LCLC22i0U COIJJIOJ2 01. iiiipj IUCOIJJG uq 2O,E4 2Uq2 LCbOI4cq S2 LCLC22iOIJ 33 !U wpjcxT2) uq c 2p91c o uraj LC2OflICC cxbor.2 u oj cxbotu j j (JJorJou &x12) jyc

r ipc Irnitj 2aocipou pcMccu L0/1p bcL-C9bTW pctIccu jjuq J2 (Acr!c9J

6( bxiT I X )—eT5o5 I I I

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0 000 0 00 00 0 00 00

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