5G the  BIG  Game  Changer  ?

Peter Cochranecochrane.org.uk

ca-global.biz

what  we  know  for  sure  ?I n t h i s a re n a o f r ap i d l y c h a n g i n g m o b i l e t e c h

W i F i d o m i n a t e s d a t a t r a f f i c c a r r i e d ~ 50%Wired comes a c lose second ~ 45%

3G / 4G are bit players ~ 5%

Ver y f ew new mob i l e tower s i t e s av a i l a b l eM o b i l e n e t wo r k s a re c o n g e s t e d

Data traf f ic of f load is v ita l

Network inf i l l demands customer micro-cel lsCopper DSL bandwidth is a l imiter

FTTH programmes are scarceFTTH instal ls are rare

The Future is dominated bySYMMETRICS E RV I C E S

more  of  the  same  but  better  ?Where did the innovation go, what has stopped the industry thinking

Constrained market sizePhysical limits to network growth

Artificial bandwidth limitations and high costsThe illusion of bandwidth scarcity and limitations

unclear  what  /  Who  will  win  !

Looking geek factorLack of real utility and RoIMay be part of an evolving PAN ecologyMost likely a meld of health, sensors, computing & comms

An unknown quantity and predicated more by fashion that tech

and  what  else  ?M o b i l e wo r k i n g i s g row i n g f a s t

BYOD becoming commonplaceMulti-mobile device now the normDevice interworking now a necessityCloud working / storage growing fast

IoT making early entry

Growing

expectation

Device to device networking apps availableDevice interworking now a necessity

Shorter

dwell times

Transient

employmentDIY IT + Security

Avid Cloud User

aN  IoT/CoT  Future  +  Unknowns

• material sourcing• manufacturing history• distribution and supply chain• purchase and ownership details• application, usage, maintenance, repair• repurposing, reuse, recycling sequence• +++

This vision does not scale by energy demands, functionally, or economically, but networks without infrastructure do!

Everything tagged, tracked, on-l ine (???) and communicat ing ++

2G  <<  2.5G  <<  3G  <<  4G  <<  5G

Incremental  or  leap  ?

High on PromiseLow on Delivery

High on PromiseLow on Delivery

The GreatWhiteHope

More of the same but slightly better or new thinking

A few tech tweaksno b ig changes

Vo i ce + Data Add Ons

Major new designvoice and data

In teg ra tedOpera t i on

Data dominateddesign IP BasedNew Spectrum

Squeezingmore intothe same

Spectrum slicing and dicing to support 4G

This cannot be fudgedit needs radical thinking

and solutions

spectrum  demandsShrinking cells & demandfor more bandwidth and farmore isolation and reuse

20km

1mm

10mm

100mm 1m

10m 100m 1km

kb/s

Mb/s

Gb/s

Tb/s

UHF

SHF

EHF

Analogue VoiceDigital Services

IoT Clouds

IiT

Mns

50 - 250Bn

DeviceNumbers

OperatingFrequency

andBandwidth

new Modes

Old thinking wil l not cut the mustard !

On Chip

On Card

On Shelf

A  radical  view  ??

We have no digital radios - only analogue bent to our digital will!

Thinking and doing nothing new will deliver no real value

If the mobile industry is to prosper - there is no option!

copper  modems  for    wireless  systems

We took what we new and understoodfrom a world of narrow band copper & adapted it to the limitations of wireless

bands  &  channels  ARE  an  Analogue  legacy

The antithesis of digital thinking and needs born out of the age of the valve,Morse Code, Telex, and Broadcast

a  ‘fork  lift’  history  /  legacyBig masts, big transmitters, big receivers, high power, no mobility

Broadcast dominated, one way communication, long distances,interference, government controls, regulation, licensing +++

‘fork  lift’  today  !Old band, channel, modulation thinking

Operat ing frequencies are much h igher, butthe same old modes persist with interference, government controls, regulation, licensing +++

what  might  we  doI f we assumed a clean sheet of paper

I f we went truly dig ita lI f we abandoned bandsI f we abandoned channelsI f we adapted dig ita l thinking

No l icencesNo controlsNo regulat ionNo government

Might it lead to a world of

AND  new  demandsBeyond, voice , TXT, browsing and data+

Cloud workingMult i-Cloud workingThings on l ine/IoT/CoTSecurity auto-immunity systemsNetworks without infrastructure

All of the above are symmetric, autonomous,exhibit highly variable bandwidth needs, dynamic location dependency, mobilityand spontaneous in their demands..

Actually it is mostly unused!

City of Chicago study <17% of commercial spectrum used

the   is  no  spectrum  fAmine   !  

spectrum  futures

Short range cell and point to point give higher reuse ratios and BW advantage >> 1,000,000 microwave to Radio and Infrared to Microwave

Infrared and Microwave enjoy very similar propagation performance over short distances

Bandwidth and Frequency are the determinant features

Water

Oxygen Water Water

Oxygen

spectrum  PAST  AND  future

The Old World

Analogue Root Long Distances Low Bandwidth Complex CodingBands & Channels

Global Constraints Country Regulated Spectrum Planning Licensed Control Policed Operation

Digital RootShort Distances High BandwidthSimple Coding

No Bands No Channels Licence Codes No Spectrum Plan

The New World

band  /  channel  wastageThe signal space is mostly unoccupied - efficiency of use << 10%

960

Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3

MHz

W/m2µ

950940

0.01

0.001

0.1

100

10

1

960

spectrum  futures

dBm

-40

-60

-80

-100

-120

-30

-50

-70

-90

-110

B a n d s a n d c h a n n e l s k i l l s p re a d e f f i c i e n c i e s

We c a n t r y t o c o n t i nu e o n t h i s p a t h

O r w e c a n a d o p t ‘ m a s s i v e s p r e a d s a n d o p e ra t e b e l ow t h e t h e r m a l n o i s e l e v e l

S/N dB

BW Hz

Duration

T seconds Information transmitted over a channel expressed as a volumetric function of S/N, BW and Time - aka Claude Shannon 1945/46

I = B.T log2(1 + k.S/N)

I ~ B.T.K.S/NdB

vv

Back  to  basics!

Spread Spectrum allows us to fill this volume !

The theoretical limit for a channel can also be applied to a band !

What is theoretical ly possible ? By the application of a l i t t l e e n g i n e e r i n g licence !!

S/N dB

BW Hz

Duration

T seconds

For real time communication we can in general only trade BW and S/N, but for non-real time we can also include T as a third variable….

An  often  forgotten  trade  off!The same information transmitted in different modes of S/N, BW and T

actuality  -  city  locationSub-optimal (grossly inefficient) signal space occupancy

BandWidth

S/N

t

Signal space visibly available in every dimension of channel and band - to be used/exploited by

Spread Spectrum across as wide a frequency range as possible…

EVEN  More  Rad icalWhy apply the artificial limits of banding when there is no need?

Water

Oxygen Water Water

Oxygen60GHz Band = 7 GHz

57 - 64 = 7GHz

50 - 300 = 250GHz

50 - 300 GHz could be used with occupancy dynamically determined by application and distance -coding shaped spectrum to occupy the signal space to maximise usage…

G r e a t e r t o l e r a n c e t o p h a s e n o i s eS i m p l e r s y n c h / t r a i n i n g s e q u e n c e s

G re a t e r i n t e r f e re n c e i m mu n i t yS i m p l e r m o d u l a t i o n / c o d i n g

B e t t e r s p re a d e f f i c i e n c yG re a t e r a d ap t a b i l i t y

L e s s ove r a l l p owe rF a s t e r a c q u i s i t i o n

H i g h e r b i t r a t e sH i g h e r u t i l i t y

B e t t e r S / N

Advantage sans bands, channels and controlsmass ive  spreads  

Lower energy demands = smaller batteries / longer up times

existenCe  theoremCommercial 60GHz products offering > 99.999% up time

60GHz Band = 57 - 64 GHz

60GHz  Electronics

Many of the base components necessary are nowavai lable in an experimental /pre-production form and we can concentrate on the design and system engineering detai l…

Not SciFi and technology - just engineering

challenges   to  come !  

Blue ToothShort RangeDevice to DeviceDevice to Cloud

WiFi/WiMaxMedium RangeWLAN/Cloud

3, 4, 5, 6 GLong Range

Device to NetDevice to Cloud

SatComBroadcast

Conflicted technologies,integrated and intelligent

security systems embedded into all products and all components

Mix of narrow / wideband, short / long reach, modulation, coding

antenna  futures

Fractal designs have been the great white hope for uni f ied antennas spanning BlueTooth, WiFi , 3G, 4G - but they have not l ived up to their early promise - as yet !

A war for mobi le device real estate

what  is  our  actual  mission  here  ?

“The maximal exploitation of the EM Spectrum to the advantage of Man and Machine for the purposes of communication, sensing, manipulation, and processing”

“And to exploit the ‘spectrum space’ to best advantage in every d imens ion inc lud ing per formance, sustainability and longevity”

spectrum  futures

Thank You

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

cochrane.org.uk