57086 09 planning

57086 Contract and Project Management9David Sowden, The University of Hull

57086 Contract and Project Management

Planning

David Sowden, The University of Hull

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Overview

• Planning– Fundamental principles– Contexts– Process description– Designing a Plan– Defining and Analysing Products– Identifying Activities and Dependencies– Estimating– Contracting a Project*– Scheduling– Analysing Risk– Completing a Plan

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Project management tools

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B F C GProject brainstorming and initial concepts, ideas, structures, aims, etc

Gathering and identifying all elements, especially causal and hidden factors

Scheduling and timescales

Identifying and sequencing parallel and interdependent activities and stages

Financials - costings, budgets, revenues, profits, variances, etc

Monitoring, forecasting, reporting

Troubleshooting, problem identification, diagnosis and solutions

Snapshot' or 'map' overview - non-sequential, non-scheduled

Format for communications, presentations, updates, progress reports, etc

B = BrainstormingF = Fishbone/Ishikawa DiagramsC = Critical Path Analysis Flow DiagramsG = Gantt Charts

main tooloption/secondary toolsometimes useful

Matrix key

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‘Tailoring the methodologies to suit’

Brainstorming/Mind-mapping

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Who?What?When?

Where?Why?How?

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http://www.mindmeister.com/

EXAMPLE

http://www.mindmeister.com

http://www.mindmeister.com

The Moscow Method

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Must have requirement

Should have if at all possible

Could have but not critical

Would be good to have... (Won’t have the time to do it now, but maybe later)

Setting priorities

MSCW

History

Fishbone diagrams are also called 'cause and effect diagrams' and Ishikawa diagrams, after Kaoru Ishikawa (1915-89), a Japanese professor specialising in industrial quality management and engineering who devised the technique in the 1960s.

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Fishbone diagram

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Fishbone diagramcause effect

problem or

outcome

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Fishbone diagram

A fishbone diagram has a central spine running left to right, around which is built a

map of factors which contribute to the final result (or problem).

cause effect

problem or

outcome

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Fishbone diagram

FactorsFactors

Factors

Factors

cause effect

problem or

outcome

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Fishbone diagram

FactorsFactors

Factors

Factors

For each project the main categories of factors are identified and shown as main ‘bones’ leading to the spine

cause effect

problem or

outcome

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Fishbone diagram

FactorsFactors

Factors

Factors

For each project the main categories of factors are identified and shown as main ‘bones’ leading to the spine

Into each category can be drawn ‘primary’ elements (P) and into these can be drawn secondary elements or factors (S), this can be extended to third and fourth level factors if necessary

P

S

cause effect

problem or

outcome

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Fishbone diagram

PeopleEquipment

Process

Materials

cause effect

problem or

outcome

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Fishbone diagram EXAMPLE

History - CPM and PERT

Basically, CPM (Critical Path Method) and PERT (Programme Evaluation Review Technique) are project management techniques, which have been created out of the need of Western industrial and military establishments to plan, schedule and control complex projects.

CPM/PERT or Network Analysis as the technique is sometimes called, developed along two parallel streams, one industrial and the other military.

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History - CPM and PERT

In 1957 the Critical Path Method (CPM) was developed as a network model for project management.

• uses a fixed time estimate for each activity• does not consider time variations that can have impact on the

completion of the product/project

• easy to understand and use

CPM was the discovery of M.R.Walker of E.I.Du Pont de Nemours & Co and J.E.Kelly of Remington Rand.

The Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) is a network model that allows for the randomness in activity times.

PERT was developed in 1958 for the US Navy’s Polaris project in response to having thousands of contractors involved.

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Project critical path analysis (flow diagram or chart)

'Critical Path Analysis' sounds very complicated, but it's a very logical and effective method for planning and managing complex projects. A critical path analysis is normally shown as a flow diagram, whose format is linear (organised in a line), and specifically a time-line.

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Critical Path Analysis is also called Critical Path Method - it's the same thing - and the terms are commonly abbreviated, to CPA and CPM.

A 2

B 1

C 5

D 4

F 2

E 3

G 3

H 2

I 2

finish

A 2

task identifier

expected time to complete task

Steps in the PERT Planning Process

• Identify the specific activities and milestones• Determine the proper sequence of the activities• Construct a network diagram• Estimate the time required for each activity• Determine the critical path• Update the PERT chart as the project progresses.

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Critical Path

• The Key Concept used by CPM/PERT is that a small set of activities, which make up the longest path through the activity network control the entire project.

• If these "critical" activities could be identified and assigned to responsible persons, management resources could be optimally used by concentrating on the few activities which determine the fate of the entire project.

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Critical Path - 5 useful questions

• when preparing a network diagram• Is this a Start Activity?

• Is this a Finish Activity?

• What Activity Precedes this?

• What Activity Follows this?

• What Activity is Concurrent with this?

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activity1

activity3

activity2

activity4

4 wks

3 wks

7 wks

6 wks0 w

ks

dumm

y activity

0

0

ES

EF

4

11

4

Drawing the CPM Network

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1

3

2

4

4 wks

3 wks

7 wks

6 wks0 w

ks

dumm

y activity

0

0

ES

EF

The Backward Pass - Latest finish time ruleTo make the Backward Pass, we begin at the final event and work backwards to the first event.4

4

11

11

4

4

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Tabulation & Analysis of Activities

Event Duration (wks)

Earliest Start

Earliest Finish

Latest Start

Latest Finish

Total Float

1-2

2-3

3-4

1-3

2-4

4 0 4 0 4 0

0 4 4 4 4 0

7 4 11 4 11 0

3 0 3 1 4 1

6 4 10 5 11 1

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Scheduling of Activities using a Gantt Chart

Activity Duration (wks)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1-2

2-3

3-4

1-3

2-4

4

0

7

3

6

Timeline in Weeks

Project Planning Period

Project due date11 weeks after start

The PERT (Probabilistic) approach

So far we have talked about projects, where there is high certainty about the outcomes of activities. In other words, the cause-effect logic is well known. This is particularly the case in Engineering projects.

However, in Research & Development projects, or in Social Projects which are defined as "Process Projects", where learning is an important outcome, the cause-effect relationship is not so well established.

In such situations, the PERT approach is useful, because it can accommodate the variation in event completion times, based on an expert’s or an expert committee’s estimates.

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For each activity, three time estimates are taken

• The Most Optimistic

• The Most Likely

• The Most Pessimistic

The Duration of an activity is calculated using the following formula:

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t =t t t4 mo p

e+ +

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teto

tmtpExpected time

Optimistic time

Most probable activity time

Pessimistic time

t =t t t4 mo p

e+ +

6

Standard Deviation

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s =1 6

to tpOptimistic time Pessimistic time

totp -

The Variance is the Square of the Standard Deviation

Critical Path

critical path in red

EXAMPLE

Scheduling

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Start

simple activity-on-node diagram

Scheduling

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Start

Task 1

Task 2


Scheduling

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Start

Task 1

Task 2

Task 3

Task 4


Scheduling

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Start

Task 1

Task 2

Task 3

Task 4

Earliest start time for the

activity

Duration of the activity

Earliest finish time for the

activity

Task 4Latest start time for the

activity

Total float for the activity

Latest finish time for the

activity


Scheduling

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Start

Task 1

Task 2

Task 3

Task 4


activity



activity


activity



activity

ES = wk18 D = wk5 EF = wk23

Task 4LS = wk18 TF = wk0 LF = wk23


Scheduling

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Start

Task 1

Task 2

Task 3

Task 4

Task 5


activity



activity


activity



activity




Scheduling

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Start

Task 1

Task 2

End

Task 3

Task 4

Task 5


activity



activity


activity



activity




Further Reading

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• Project Management Institute (2003). A Guide To The Project Management Body Of Knowledge (3rd ed. ed.). Project Management Institute. ISBN 1-930699-45-X.

• Klastorin, Ted (2003). Project Management: Tools and Trade-offs (3rd ed. ed.). Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-41384-4.

• Kerzner, Harold (2003). Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling (8th Ed. ed.). Wiley. ISBN 0-471-22577-0.

• Milosevic, Dragan Z. (2003). Project Management ToolBox: Tools and Techniques for the Practicing Project Manager. Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-20822-8.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Standard_Book_Number


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/1-930699-45-X

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/1-930699-45-X



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-471-41384-4




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/0-471-22577-0

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/0-471-22577-0





EXAMPLEMind Map Diagram for organising a conference

EXAMPLE

Mail shotsFeedback

form

Booking requirements

Selected and booked venue

Venue enquires

List of possible venues

Agreed programme

Printed agenda

Slides and NotesCovers

List of venue requirements

Press release

Delegate handout pack

On-the-day staff

Conference

Selected theme

Responses

Mailing list

Booked speakers

required date

Final attendance list

Product Flow Diagram for

organising a conference

Speaker invitations

Speaker options

EXAMPLEProduct Product

IDActivity

IDAssociated Activities Predecessor

Selected theme A A1 Receive theme -

Required date B B1 Receive date -

Mailing list C C1 Receive mailing list -

Speaker Option D D1

D2

Identify possible speakers

Prepare speaker database

A1

D1

Speaker invitations E E1

E2

E3

Prepare speaker invite letter

Merge invite letter

Post invite letters

D2

E1

E2

Booked speakers F F1

F2

Receive replies

Confirm speaker booking

E3

F1

Slides and notes G G1

G2

G3

Prepare slides

Put into show order

Print slides

F2

G1

G2

Covers H H1

H2

Design covers

Print covers

A1

H1

Agreed programme J J1

J2

Draft programme

Agree programme

F2

J1

Printed agenda K K1

K2

Agree agenda

Print agenda

J2

K1

Feedback Form L L1 Agree feedback form J2

K1

M

N

Gantt Charts• Gantt Charts (commonly wrongly called gant charts) are

extremely useful project management tools. The Gantt Chart is named after US engineer and consultant Henry Gantt (1861-1919) who devised the technique in the 1910s.

• Gantt charts are excellent models for scheduling budgeting, reporting, presenting and communicating project plans and progress easily and quickly,

• But as a rule Gantt Charts are not as good as a Critical Path Analysis Flow Diagram for identifying and showing interdependent factors, or for 'mapping' a plan from and/or into all of its detailed causal or contributing elements.

• see - www.smartsheet.com or www.mindgenius.com

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http://www.smartsheet.com

http://www.smartsheet.com

http://www.mindgenius.com

http://www.mindgenius.com

Gantt Charts

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EXAMPLE

Gantt Charts

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EXAMPLE

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TASKS

1Create Critical path analysis and Gantt chart

2Create a time-line (Critical Path Analysis) and a Gantt Chart for this task

A cooked full English breakfast• Consider colour coding the time blocks to denote type of activity (for example, intense, watching

brief, directly managed, delegated and left-to-run, etc.)

• You can schedule ‘review’ and insert break points. (are you burning the toast?)

• At the end of each line you can show as many cost columns for the activities as you need. You could estimate the produce, labour and the utility costs and list these within the chart.

• (A cooked breakfast will shows minutes, but normally you would use weeks, or for very big long-term projects, months.)

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Critical Path Analysis &Gantt Chart

TASKS

Create a time-line (Critical Path Analysis) and a Gantt Chart for this task

A cooked full English breakfast• A Gantt chart like this can be used to keep track of progress for each activity and how the costs are

running.

• You can move the time blocks around to report on actuals versus planned, and to re-schedule, and to create new plan updates.

• Costs columns can show plan and actuals and variances, and calculate whatever totals, averages, ratios, etc., that you need.

• Gantt Charts are probably the most flexible and useful of all project management tools, but remember they do not very easily or obviously show the importance and inter-dependence of related parallel activities, and they won't obviously show the necessity to complete one task before another can begin, as a Critical Path Analysis will do, so you may need both tools, especially at the planning stage, and almost certainly for large complex projects.

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Critical Path Analysis &Gantt Chart

TASKS

3

Warm plates

Grill Bacon and Tomatoes

Fry sausages

Toast Bread

Serve

Lay table

Fry eggs

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Critical Path Analysis flow diagram

EXAMPLE

Prepare ingredients

Prepare cooking equipment

Assemble crockery/utensils and condiments

Purchase

ingredients

Start

Time

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ActivityPrepare ingredients

Prepare equipment

Assemble crockery/utensils

Warm plates

Grill bacon

Grill Tomatoes

Lay table

Fry sausages

Toast Bread

Fry eggs

Serve

Total costs

Gantt Charts EXAMPLEtime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutestime - minutes

costcostcap rev

8585

3 82 7

34 52 33 2

314 58

Resources

• http://www.projectinabox.org.uk/planner.asp

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http://www.projectinabox.org.uk/planner.asp


Preparing estimates (1)

• Time and resources required

– Type of resource

• skills required for the type of resource

– include both human and non-human

» equipment, travel, expenses.............

– Effort required for each activity

• these will be approximate and provisional

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Preparing estimates (2)• Assume that resources will be productive for, say, 80% of there time

• Resources working on numerous project take longer (e.g. supervisors availability)

• People are generally optimistic and underestimate time taken

• Make use of other people’s experience and your own

• Alway build in provision for problems solving, meetings and other unexpected events

• Cost each activity, not the whole

• Communicate any assumptions, exclusions or constraints to the user(s)

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Analysing Risk

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Identify the risks

Evaluate the risks

Identify suitable responses to risk

Monitor and report

Plan and resource

Risk analysis Risk management

Select

Analysing Risk

Factor Likelihood Impact Mitigation Strategy

Failure to recruit staff Medium High Minimise number of staff to be recruited. Ensure recruitment cycle begins as rapidly after project approved as possible. Ensure remuneration adequate to level of responsibility and expertise. Use specialist recruitment agency if necessary. Other staff seconded from other duties and additionally trained as triage solution.

Underestimate difficulty of specific technical development

Low Medium Close integration with OSS community effort to mobilise additional resource to bear on problem space.

Difficulty integrating with data sources for identity

Medium High Deploy Identity Management software based on open standards. Direct engagement with systems specialists.

Difficulty integrating the numerous electronic systems within the Engineering framework

Medium High Work with the various Engineering institutions to develop a concept concerning the creation and adoption of Standards (i.e. LEAP2A)

Project fails sufficiently to engage engineering communities

Low High Staff within the University of Hull, particularly the Knowledge Exchange will ensure that the ‘learner voice’ is represented throughout the project, inclusive of the broad diversity (including geographic) of learners represented within the partnership.

EXAMPLE

Completing a Plan• A plan should contain the following:

• Plan Description

• Plan Prerequisites

• External Dependencies

• Planning Assumptions

• Lessons Incorporated

• Monitoring and Control

• Budgets

• Tolerances

• Product descriptions

• Schedule

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(see ‘Plan’ template)



TASK

Review your project plan

57086 09 planning

Technology

Transcript of 57086 09 planning