Global Monthly October 2016

http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/economic-monitoring

49

50

51Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Output

Export orders

Index, >50 = expansion

2

October 2016

50

51

52

53

Jan-1

4

Apr-

14

Jul-14

Oct-

14

Jan-1

5

Apr-

15

Jul-15

Oct-

15

Jan-1

6

Apr-

16

Jul-16

Output

Average since 2000

Index, >50 = expansion

0

50

100

150

200

Ba

il o

ut /

sta

tea

id m

ea

sure

Tra

de

defe

nse

Tra

de

fin

an

ce

Imp

ort

ta

riff

Lo

caliz

atio

nre

qu

ire

men

t

Exp

ort

ta

xe

s

Number of measures

0

1

2

3

4

Se

pt

'14

De

c '1

5

Se

pt

'16

Se

pt

'14

De

c '1

5

Se

pt

'16

2017 Long-run

FOMC medianMarket-based expectations

Percent

3

October 2016

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2014 2015 2016

Industrial production

Retail sales

Percent, 3m-o-3m saar

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

Exchange rate

10-year bond yield

PercentU.S. dollars per pound

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct-

16

Percent

4

October 2016

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Percent, year-on-year

40

45

50

55

Bra

zil

Nig

eria

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ru

ssia

Q3 average

Q2 average

Index, >50 is expansion

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

South Africa

Malaysia

Brazil

Indonesia

Percent change in REER

Perc

ent change in term

sof tr

ade

Colombia

Nigeria

Russia

5

October 2016

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Commodity importersCommodity exportersCommodity importers ex. China

Percent, y-o-y

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan-1

6

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Apr-

16

May-1

6

Jun-1

6

Jul-16

Aug-1

6

Sep-1

6

Oct-

16

US$ billions

EM equity funds

EM bond funds

-75

-50

-25

0

25

Energy Metal Agriculture

2014-16

2016-17

Percentage change

6

October 2016

-90

-50

-10

30

Net in

tere

st

incom

e

Lendin

gm

arg

in

Le

ndin

gra

te

Le

ndin

gvolu

me

Non-inte

rest

charg

e

Le

ndin

gm

arg

in

Le

ndin

gra

te

Le

ndin

gvolu

me

Non-inte

rest

charg

e

Enterprises Households for HousePurchase

Past six months Next six monthsNet percent

0

2

4

6

Hu

nga

ry

De

nm

ark

Sp

ain

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Sw

ed

en

Range from 2010-presentPre-NIRPCurrent

Percentage points

-101234567

Japan

Euro

Are

a

Denm

ark

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Sw

eden

Latest Pre-NIRPPercent

7

October 2016

.

75

100

125

150

2014 2015 2016

World Euro Area Japan

Index, Jan 2014 = 100

-2

-1

0

1

-2

-1

0

1

Financial sector CDS Financial sectorequities (RHS)

Average Median

Basis points Percent

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Euro Area Sweden Japan

Switzerland Denmark

Index, 2010Q1=100

8

October 2016

Global Economic Prospects - January 2017 (forthcoming)

Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2016

Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications

Commodity Markets Outlook - July 2016: From Energy Prices to Food Prices: Moving in Tandem

Global Economic Prospects - June 2016: Divergences and Risks

Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2016: Resource Development in an Era of Cheap Commodities

Global Economic Prospects - January 2016: Spillovers amid Weak Growth

Does Governing Law Affect Bond Spreads?

The World Is Not Yet Flat: Transport Costs Matter!

Informality in the Process of Development and Growth

Unequal Opportunity, Unequal Growth

Global Talent Flows

Strategic Investment Funds: Opportunities and Challenges

Retooling Poverty Targeting Using Out-of-Sample Validation and Machine Learning

Economic Integration across Latin America: Evidence from Labor Markets, 1990–2013

Faraway or Nearby? Domestic and International Spillovers in Patenting and Product Innovation

Russian Federation: How Services Contribute to Competitiveness

(Percent, y-o-y) (Percent y-o-y)

Recent releases: Sept 23, 2016- Oct 22, 2016 Upcoming releases: Oct 23, 2016 - Nov 22, 2016

Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous

Netherlands 9/23/16 GDP Q2 1.8 % 2.3 % 1.5% Singapore 10/13/16 GDP Q3 2.1 %

Singapore 9/23/16 CPI AUG -0.3 % -0.4% -0.7 % China 10/18/16 GDP Q3 6.7 %

Germany 9/29/16 CPI SEP 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.4 % South Korea 10/24/16 GDP Q3 3.3 %

Japan 9/29/16 CPI AUG -0.5 % -0.5 % -0.4 % UK 10/27/16 GDP Q3 2.1 %

Italy 9/30/16 CPI SEP 0.1 % 0 % -0.1 % France 10/28/16 GDP Q3 1.3 %

Denmark 9/30/16 GDP Q2 0.3 % 0.4% 0.3 % United States 10/28/16 GDP Q3 1.3 %

Indonesia 10/3/16 CPI SEP 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% Belgium 10/28/16 GDP Q3 1.4 %

Philippines 10/4/16 CPI SEP 2.3 % 2.1% 1.8 % Austria 10/31/16 GDP Q3 1.2 %

Netherlands 10/6/16 CPI SEP 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.2 % Eurozone 10/31/16 GDP Q3 1.6 %

Mexico 10/7/16 CPI SEP 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% Indonesia 11/7/16 GDP Q3 5.2%

Brazil 10/7/16 CPI SEP 8.5% 8.6% 9.0% Malaysia 11/11/16 GDP Q3 4.0 %

Czech Republic 10/10/16 CPI SEP 0.5 % 0.6 % Japan 11/13/16 GDP Q3 0.7 %

Denmark 10/10/16 CPI SEP 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.2 % Greece 11/14/16 GDP Q3 -0.9 %

Greece 10/10/16 CPI SEP -1.0 % -0.7% -0.9 % Italy 11/15/16 GDP Q3 0.8 %

Hungary 10/11/16 CPI SEP 0.6 % -0.1 % Hungary 11/15/16 GDP Q3 1.8 %

Germany 10/13/16 CPI SEP 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.4 % Czech Republic 11/15/16 GDP Q2 2.6 %

Italy 10/14/16 CPI SEP 0.1 % 0.1 % -0.1 % Netherlands 11/15/16 GDP Q3 1.8 %

Singapore 10/14/16 GDP Q3 0.6 % 1.6% 2.1 % Poland 11/15/16 GDP Q3 3.1 %

China 10/18/16 GDP Q3 6.7 % 6.7 % 6.7 % Portugal 11/15/16 GDP Q3 0.9 %

United States 10/18/16 CPI SEP 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.1 % Thailand 11/16/16 GDP Q3 3.5 %

Malaysia 10/19/16 CPI SEP 1.5 % 3 % 1.5 % Philippines 11/16/16 GDP Q3 7.0 %

9

October 2016

2015 2016 2015 2016

2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug

Industrial Production, sa 1

World 3.2 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.2 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.6 2.1

Advanced Economies 2.0 0.5 0.7 -1.4 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.2 -1.3 0.2 -1.1 -1.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.4

Emerging Market and

Developing Economies 4.5 3.4 3.4 4.6 2.2 4.3 3.5 3.3 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.9

Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.0 -0.3 -1.3 1.3 0.5 1.6 -0.6 -0.1 -1.4 0.2 1.7 -0.7 -0.8 0.5 1.8 1.9 -

Other EMDE 6.8 5.1 5.6 5.9 2.9 5.3 5.4 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.1 4.9

East Asia and Pacific 7.5 5.8 5.6 7.7 3.3 7.0 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.3

East Asia excl. China 3.0 3.6 5.2 5.8 4.2 3.5 3.7 4.3 2.0 5.5 5.5 3.2 2.0 5.7 6.5 5.8 5.6

Europe and Central Asia 2.7 0.5 2.9 4.2 1.3 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.6 3.1 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.9 -0.4 1.6

Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -3.2 -4.4 -6.5 -3.1 0.7 -4.7 -5.1 -4.6 -4.3 -4.9 -4.4 -4.3 -3.6 -2.2 -2.5 -2.9

Middle East and North Africa 0.8 2.6 1.4 9.9 2.2 -3.3 3.8 4.9 2.2 6.6 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 3.2 4.4 -

South Asia 2.6 4.3 4.7 -8.3 4.4 5.4 10.3 -1.3 0.9 0.2 3.4 2.5 -0.4 1.6 2.9 -1.2 -0.4

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.0 0.1 6.6 -1.2 1.1 8.3 -0.4 -1.3 0.2 -0.9 1.5 -1.2 2.4 4.1 4.3 1.6 0.1

Inflation, sa 2

World 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1

Advanced Economies 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3

Emerging Market and

Developing Economies 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7

Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.3

Other EMDE 2.9 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.3 0.9 East Asia and Pacific 3.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7

Europe and Central Asia 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.5

Latin America and Caribbean 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.7 3.5 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.9

Middle East and North Africa 2.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1

South Asia 6.8 3.5 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.8 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.5

Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.8 4.5 4.1 4.5 5.1 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 3.7 4.7 6.0 5.9

4.4 3.8 4.5 4.1 4.5 5.1 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 3.7 4.7 6.0 5.9

(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized)

2015 2016 2015 2016

2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug

Exports, Nominal, US$, sa

World 1.1 -11.5 -5.9 -6.9 -12.7 13.7 -12.5 -11.1 -10.1 -11.9 -9.0 -3.7 -2.6 -3.3 -4.3 -6.8 -

Advanced Economies 1.3 -11.3 -5.4 -7.6 -5.7 14.8 -11.6 -9.8 -9.9 -9.3 -4.1 -3.7 -0.2 -1.1 -2.8 -5.7 -

Emerging Market and Developing Economies 0.9 -11.9 -6.7 -5.6 -23.3 11.6 -13.9 -13.1 -10.4 -15.9 -16.2 -3.8 -6.8 -7.1 -6.7 -8.6 -

Commodity-exporting EMDE -4.7 -24.2 -22.6 -14.2 -25.8 15.3 -24.8 -23.5 -21.2 -24.7 -13.5 -16.1 -14.1 -12.1 -13.4 - -

Other EMDE 5.0 -3.7 3.1 -1.0 -20.6 10.3 -7.1 -6.8 -3.9 -11.0 -17.0 4.6 -2.2 -3.8 -2.3 -4.8 -1.1

East Asia and Pacific 4.6 -3.5 0.5 -1.4 -25.1 11.8 -8.3 -7.9 -4.3 -13.2 -20.6 5.9 -3.9 -5.3 -4.4 -6.3 -1.8

Europe and Central Asia -0.9 -20.7 -14.8 -9.3 -20.6 19.2 -20.5 -17.7 -14.7 -22.1 -12.9 -13.0 -8.1 -10.6 -3.9 -8.5 -

Latin America and Caribbean -0.8 -11.9 -8.8 -11.1 -5.4 4.5 -11.9 -11.7 -11.5 -11.4 -3.7 -9.1 -5.3 -2.1 -8.4 -7.9 -

Middle East and North Africa -5.1 -26.3 -15.4 -8.1 - - -25.2 -24.2 -22.1 -22.7 - - - - - - -

South Asia 4.0 -4.7 -10.8 10.5 4.7 -4.1 -1.5 -8.9 -5.4 -3.0 4.2 -0.3 0.9 -0.4 -1.3 - -

Sub-Saharan Africa -6.2 -27.1 -26.7 -21.0 -38.6 - -28.7 -28.3 -29.1 -26.4 -22.7 -24.4 - - - - -

Imports, Nominal, US$, sa

World 1.2 -12.6 -5.0 -7.1 -14.2 9.4 -13.3 -10.4 -11.2 -11.7 -5.3 -7.5 -5.9 -2.5 -5.3 -9.8 -

Advanced Economies 2.1 -12.5 -4.3 -7.4 -9.5 7.4 -12.0 -8.9 -11.3 -9.7 -2.7 -6.7 -4.1 -2.0 -4.8 -8.6 -

Emerging Market and Developing Economies -0.4 -12.8 -6.1 -6.6 -21.8 13.7 -15.5 -12.8 -11.0 -15.1 -9.6 -8.6 -9.0 -3.2 -5.7 -11.5 -

Commodity-exporting EMDE -2.5 -14.9 -9.9 -12.3 -17.5 -1.2 -16.9 -15.8 -17.0 -18.1 -15.2 -13.4 -13.4 -9.5 -8.3 - -

Other EMDE 0.9 -11.6 -4.0 -3.4 -25.1 19.0 -14.8 -11.1 -7.6 -13.3 -6.8 -6.5 -7.6 -0.9 -5.3 -11.1 3.1

East Asia and Pacific -0.5 -13.1 -4.4 -1.0 -29.7 24.4 -18.1 -8.7 -8.3 -16.6 -11.0 -5.3 -8.2 0.9 -6.2 -10.9 6.4

Europe and Central Asia -3.7 -20.7 -7.8 -9.0 1.9 9.9 -19.0 -18.5 -18.0 -15.0 -5.1 -3.8 -3.4 -1.8 0.5 -10.1 -

Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -9.9 -4.3 -15.4 -15.8 3.0 -12.6 -11.0 -15.7 -16.3 -9.9 -14.6 -10.0 -6.3 -9.0 -16.0 -

Middle East and North Africa 3.0 -6.3 -8.8 -5.1 - - -5.5 -11.9 -9.1 -13.0 - - - - - - -

South Asia 1.1 -13.2 -2.0 -13.0 -30.2 1.8 -18.0 -25.1 -3.4 -6.9 -3.5 -18.9 -18.8 -9.4 -7.0 -14.4 -10.2

Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 -7.4 -17.5 -9.8 - - -14.1 -9.7 -12.0 -18.8 - - - - - - -

International Reserves, US$1

World -1.3 -5.8 -2.1 -2.7 0.1 0.6 -0.1 -1.6 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.1 0.6 -0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0

Advanced Economies 0.2 2.2 0.4 -0.6 2.3 1.1 -0.3 -1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2

Emerging Market and Developing Economies -2.0 -10.0 -3.4 -3.9 -1.2 0.2 0.1 -2.0 -2.0 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 0.6 -0.8 0.4 0.1 -0.1

Commodity-exporting EMDE -6.5 - -2.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Other EMDE 0.7 -10.2 -4.0 -4.4 -1.7 0.4 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.2 -0.2 0.8 0.6 -0.7 0.5 0.0 -0.2

East Asia and Pacific 0.2 -12.5 -4.9 -4.4 -2.3 0.0 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -0.3 0.6 0.3 -1.0 0.7 0.0 -0.4

Europe and Central Asia -16.8 -5.4 1.3 -3.6 4.3 2.9 -0.2 -1.9 -1.5 0.8 2.0 1.5 1.6 -0.1 1.4 0.3 0.6

Latin America and Caribbean 0.2 -5.6 -2.7 -2.4 0.7 0.6 -0.9 -1.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.9 1.6 -1.0 -0.1 1.9 -0.2

Middle East and North Africa -2.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

South Asia 11.3 11.5 -0.8 1.1 0.9 1.6 0.9 -0.4 0.7 -1.1 -0.3 2.3 2.0 -0.8 0.4 1.2 0.6

Sub-Saharan Africa -10.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

10

October 2016

2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1

2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Interest rates and LIBOR (percent)

U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.37 0.37 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41

ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.31 0.41 0.62 0.64 0.37 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.81 0.85 0.88

EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.03 -0.09 -0.19 -0.26 -0.09 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 -0.23 -0.25 -0.26 -0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.30 -0.31

US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.20 2.18 1.92 1.75 2.26 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.79 1.80 1.64 1.48 1.56 1.63 1.75

German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.70 0.56 0.32 0.12 0.55 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.01 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 0.03

Spreads (basis points)

JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 426 423 431 478 419 413 442 485 507 443 421 418 418 387 367 361 357

Asia 206 232 233 245 264 227 235 253 268 282 243 224 223 233 210 190 191 193

Europe 287 348 345 311 339 305 294 308 338 359 319 308 305 303 290 282 273 276

Latin America & Caribbean 407 559 560 577 645 551 553 595 662 687 588 559 552 541 496 473 463 452

Middle East 388 471 447 506 555 538 503 512 542 580 545 539 530 545 540 492 493 491

Africa 323 449 425 509 626 548 482 555 644 661 573 546 552 546 494 448 440 438

Stock Indices (end of period)

Global (MSCI) 417 399 382 399 395 399 407 399 375 372 395 403 403 399 414 417 418 415

Advanced Economies ($ Index) 1710 1663 1582 1663 1638 1653 1694 1663 1562 1547 1638 1671 1675 1653 1713 1720 1726 1707

United States (S&P 500) 2059 2044 1920 2044 2051 2099 2080 2044 1940 1932 2051 2065 2097 2099 2170 2171 2168 2144

Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1401 1474 1405 1474 1352 1339 1558 1474 1381 1347 1352 1379 1399 1339 1376 1390 1388 1393

Japan (Nikkei 225) 16292 16292 17388 18817 16555 15576 19921 18817 17518 15989 16555 16407 17235 15576 16556 16887 16450 16999

Emerging Market and

Developing Economies (MSCI) 956 794 792 794 821 834 814 794 742 740 821 840 807 834 879 894 903 913

EM Asia 457 404 391 404 404 407 408 404 374 369 404 405 400 407 431 442 448 448

EM Europe 297 244 259 244 272 265 263 244 237 241 272 288 268 265 264 269 273 276

EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 226 211 230 225 222 211 202 208 230 243 225 225 227 232 233 234

EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1895 1830 2121 2269 1919 1830 1744 1804 2121 2292 2038 2269 2359 2402 2381 2588

Exchange Rates (LCU / USD)

Advanced Economies

Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.91

Japan 105.89 121.00 122.06 121.41 115.23 107.96 122.61 121.62 118.37 114.44 112.87 109.57 108.97 105.34 104.09 101.31 101.69 103.44

Emerging and Developing Economies

Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.55 3.84 3.91 3.51 3.78 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.70 3.56 3.54 3.42 3.28 3.21 3.25 3.17

China 6.16 6.29 6.31 6.39 6.54 6.53 6.37 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.51 6.48 6.53 6.59 6.68 6.65 6.67 6.74

Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.82 7.88 8.04 8.87 7.91 7.83 7.83 7.82 8.47 8.87 8.86 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.88 8.88

India 61.03 64.14 64.97 65.91 67.50 66.91 66.15 66.54 67.31 68.22 66.95 66.49 66.93 67.29 67.18 66.91 66.74 66.68

Russia 38.58 61.34 63.62 66.17 74.84 65.84 65.01 70.19 77.36 77.23 69.93 66.54 65.96 65.01 64.43 64.93 64.48 62.30

South Africa 10.85 12.77 13.03 14.22 15.83 15.01 14.14 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.39 14.62 15.36 15.05 14.40 13.79 14.01 13.84

Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate

(index) 102.2 114.7 116.2 118.1 120.3 117.5 118.3 119.4 121.8 120.7 118.4 116.5 117.8 118.2 118.9 117.8 118.6 119.5

(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period )

Table E: Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2015 MRV 1 2016

2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Energy 2 118 65 63 54 43 56 55 48 40 41 47 51 57 59 57 58 58 58

Non-energy 2 97 82 81 78 76 81 77 76 75 76 78 80 81 83 82 82 81 81

Agriculture 2 103 89 88 86 85 91 86 85 84 84 86 88 91 94 92 91 90 90

Metals and minerals 2 88 68 65 60 59 62 59 57 56 59 62 63 61 61 65 65 64 59

Memo items:

Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 96 51 48 42 33 45 43 37 30 31 37 41 46 48 44 45 45 50

Gold ($/toz) 1266 1161 1124 1107 1181 1260 1086 1076 1098 1200 1245 1242 1261 1276 1337 1340 1327 1315

Baltic Dry Index 1103 711 975 627 363 613 582 510 391 307 390 608 623 608 707 675 826 849