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5. Project Management
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Goals
The goals of this chapter are to introduce concepts and techniques for the management of
software projects
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Summary
Good PM is not enough to warranty that a project succeeds But bad PM is enough to warranty that a project is late,
over budget and does not deliver the needed functionality Key activities in PM are project planning, cost and effort
estimation, project tracking, project organization, risk management
Key tools are Work breakdown structure, product breakdown structure (VPM in software projects), Gantt and Pert charts, process and product measures.
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Outline
5 Project management5.1 Project planning5.2 Cost/effort estimation5.3 Project Tracking5.4 Personnel
5.5 Risk Management
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Project Management
Software System (functions and quality)
Calendar time Cost
No notion of unpredictable events here
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Management activities
planning defining activities and products scheduling activities and deliveries on
calendar deciding organizational structure (5.4) allocating resources estimating cost / effort (5.2)
tracking (5.3)managing risks (5.5)
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5.1 Planning
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Tools
Phases, Activities, ResourcesWBS, PBSGantt, PertMilestones, deliverables
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WBS
Work Breakdown StructureHierarchical decomposition of
activities in subactivitiesno temporal relationships
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Milestone
Key event/condition in the projectwith effects on subsequent activitiesex. requirement document accepted
by the customer if yes then .. if no then ..
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Table 3.1. Phases, steps and activities of building a house.
Phase 1: Landscaping the lot Phase 2: Building the houseStep 1.1:Clearingandgrubbing
Step 2.1:Prepare thesite
Activity 1.1.1: Remove trees Activity 2.1.1: Survey the landActivity 1.1.2: Remove stumps Activity 2.1.2: Request permits
Step 1.2:Seeding theturf
Activity 2.1.3: Excavate for thefoundation
Activity 1.2.1: Aerate the soil Activity 2.1.4: Buy materialsActivity 1.2.2: Disperse the seeds Step 2.2:
Building theexterior
Activity 1.2.3: Water and weed Activity 2.2.1: Lay the foundationStep 1.3:Plantingshrubs andtrees
Activity 2.2.2: Build the outside walls
Activity 1.3.1: Obtain shrubs and trees Activity 2.2.3: Install exterior plumbingActivity 1.3.2: Dig holes Activity 2.2.4: Exterior electrical workActivity 1.3.3: Plant shrubs and trees Activity 2.2.5: Exterior sidingActivity 1.3.4: Anchor the trees andmulch around them
Activity 2.2.6: Paint the exterior
Activity 2.2.7: Install doors and fixturesActivity 2.2.8: Install roof
Step 2.3:Finishingthe interior
Activity 2.3.1: Install the interiorplumbingActivity 2.3.2: Install interior electricalworkActivity 2.3.3: Install wallboardActivity 2.3.4: Paint the interiorActivity 2.3.5: Install floor coveringActivity 2.3.6: Install doors and fixtures
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Table 3.2. Milestones in building a house.
1.1. Survey complete1.2. Permits issued1.3. Excavation complete1.4. Materials on hand2.1. Foundation laid2.2. Outside walls complete2.3. Exterior plumbing complete2.4. Exterior electrical work complete2.5. Exterior siding complete2.6. Exterior painting complete2.7. Doors and fixtures mounted2.8. Roof complete3.1. Interior plumbing complete3.2. Interior electrical work complete3.3. Wallboard in place3.4. Interior painting complete3.5. Floor covering laid3.6. Doors and fixtures mounted
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PBS
Product Breakdown Structurehierarchical decomposition of
product cfr Virtual Product Model
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Deliverable
Product (final or intermediate) in the process cfr PBS, VPM
internal (for producer) or external (for customer)
contractual value or not
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Gantt chart
ID Task Name
1 Requirements Planning2 Review existing systems
3 Perform work flow analysis
4 Model process
5 Identify user requirements
6 Identify performance requirements
7 Identify interface requirements
8 Prepare Software Requirements Specification
9 Software Requirements Review
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
21/06
S M W F S T T S M W F S T T S4 30 May '94 06 Jun '94 13 Jun '94 20 Jun '94
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Pert
Reviewexistingsystems
2 3d
Wed 01/06/94Fri 03/06/94
Performwork flowanalysis
3 3d
Mon 06/06/94Wed 08/06/94
Model process
4 2d
Thu 09/06/94Fri 10/06/94
Identifyuserrequirements
5 2d
Mon 13/06/94Tue 14/06/94
Identifyperformance
6 2d
Wed 15/06/94Thu 16/06/94
Identifyinterfacerequirements
7 2d
Fri 17/06/94Mon 20/06/94
Prepare SoftwareRequirements
8 1d
Tue 21/06/94Tue 21/06/94
RequirementsPlanning
1 120h
Wed 01/06/94Tue 21/06/94
SoftwareRequirements
9 0d
Tue 21/06/94Tue 21/06/94
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PERT -directed acyclic graph: node = activity, arrow = precedence relatioship
Docum.
2Design
4Requir.
3
START
Test plan
2
Unit Test6
Coding4
System Test 4
STOPTest Data
2
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Critical path analysis
What is shortest time to complete the project?
What are the critical activities to complete the project in shortest time?
Critical activities are the ones on the critical path(s)
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Critical path -Path with longest duration
(1) START label with (0,0)
(2) For each node N whose predecessors are labeled: SN=max {Si} Si: end time for i-th predecessor label N with (SN, SN+duration)
(3) Repeat (2) until all nodes labeled
start end
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Example .
Docum.Design4
Requir.
START
Test PlanUnit Test
Code
System Test
STOP
Test data
(3,7)
(0,3)
(0,0) (3,5)(7,11)
(7,9)
(15,15)
(0,2) (2,8)(11,15)
2
2
32
4
4
6
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Analysis
- Late start latest time an activity can be started without changing end time of project
. . . . . -
.Slack time Admissible delay to complete an activity
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To Compute “Slack Time”
Start from graph (S,F) from critical path analysis, for each node compute new labels (S’,F’), max start and end times
1. For STOP (S’, F’)=(S,F).2. For each node whose successors are labeled
(S’, F’) compute min S’, that becomes F’ for the node S’=F’-duration Slack Time=S’- S (or also F’- F)
3. Repeat
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Managerial Implications
1. Use slack time to delay start time, or lenghten, an activity
2. If duration of activity on critical path lenghtens by X, the whole project is delayed by X
3. If only one critical path exists, reducing duration of any activity on critical path shortens duration of project.
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Planning Process
Identify activities and/or deliverables PBS, WBS reference models (VPM, CMM, Iso 9000)
estimate effort and cost define schedule (Gantt)analyze schedule (Pert)
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Project plan
living document will be updated during tracking
outline list of deliverables, activities milestones Gantt Pert personnel organization roles and responsibilities
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5.2 Estimation
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Table 3.3. Activities and time estimates.
Activity Time estimate (in days)Step 1: Prepare the siteActivity 1.1: Survey the land 3Activity 1.2: Request permits 15Activity 1.3: Excavate for the foundation 10Activity 1.4: Buy materials 10Step 2: Building the exteriorActivity 2.1: Lay the foundation 15Activity 2.2: Build the outside walls 20Activity 2.3: Install exterior plumbing 10Activity 2.4: Exterior electrical work 10Activity 2.5: Exterior siding 8Activity 2.6: Paint the exterior 5Activity 2.7: Install doors and fixtures 6Activity 2.8: Install roof 9Step 3: Finishing the interiorActivity 3.1: Install the interior plumbing 12Activity 3.2: Install interior electrical work 15Activity 3.3: Install wallboard 9Activity 3.4: Paint the interior 18Activity 3.5: Install floor covering 11Activity 3.6: Install doors and fixtures 7
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Costs - by phase
upfront costs market analysis, feasibility studies
development costsmaintenance costs
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hardware (target platform)hardware (development platform)personnel (by far main cost in most
cases) salaries, office space, travel .. technical administrative
Costs - by category
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Estimation of cost and effort
Based on analogy requires experience from the past to
‘foresee’ the future the closer a project to past projects, the
better the estimation
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Techniques
Expert judgement Delphi bottom-up empirical models
Cocomofunction points
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Expert judgement
one or more experts (chosen in function of experience) propose an estimate
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Delphi
evolution of expert judgementstructured meetings to achieve
consensus in estimate each participant proposes estimate
(anonymous) team leader publishes synthesis
(a + 4m + b)/6 (beta distribution)a best - b worst - m mean
iterate
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Bottom up
decomposition (WBS o PBS)estimate each part
easier estimate for small partsaggregate
not linear
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Empiricals models
requires data base of past projects min info required: size, effort
apply regression (linear, or else)apply regression for estimates
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Cocomo
effort = a * size **b a, b are defined constants, depend on the
type of system (organic = MIS, embedded rt, intermediate)
a,b are based on retrospective applicationrequires an estimated sizecocomo 2.0
integration of oo, reuse, gui, fp
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Function Points
fp = A*EI + B*EO + C*EQ + D*EIF + E*ILF
EI = number of Input Item EO = output item EQ = Inquiry EIF= Master File ILF = Interface
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Coefficients A,B,C,D,E
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Function Points
For any product, size in “function points” is given byFP = 4 Inp + 5 Out + 4 Inq + 10 Maf + 7 Inf
A 3-step process.
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Function Points (2)
1. Classify each component of product (Inp, Out,
Inq, Maf, Inf) as simple, average, or complex. Assign appropriate number of function points Sum gives UFP (unadjusted function points)
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Function Points (3)
2. Compute technical complexity factor (TCF) Assign value from 0 (“not
present”) to 5 (“strong influence throughout”) to each of 14 factors such as transaction rates, portability
Add 14 numbers total degree of influence (DI)
TCF = 0.65 + 0.01 DI Technical complexity factor
(TCF) lies between 0.65 and 1.35
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Function Points (4)
3. Number of function points (FP) given by
FP = UFP TCF
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Function Points
suitable for MIS use of adjustment factors delicate FP expert should do estimate
long, expensive
conversion tables FP - LOC
conversion tables FP - costwww.ifpug.org
COBOL 110PL/1 654GL 25
Language LOC/FP
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5.3 Tracking
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Tracking process
project has startedcollect project data
minimum: effort, completion of activities/deliverables
process and product measurescompare estimated - actualcorrective actions
change personnel, change activities, change deliverables, ...
re-plan
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Process measures
time, effort, costfault, failure, changeproduct specific measures
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Effort
time taken by staff to complete a task
person hours (ieee 1045) person day, person month, person year
depend on national and corporation parameters
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Cost
cost to user acquisition, maintenance, normal
operation, initial operation (training, overheads)
cost to vendor staff hardware, software offices, telephone, ...
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Earned value
When the total time to do a project is estimated, each task is given a earned value based on its estimated percentage of the total. Example: for a 600 minute project, a 60
minute task will give an earned value of 10%.
When you reach an earned value of 100% the project is completed.
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Earned value
You earn the value of a phase only after completion. What if you consume more effort than
estimated for a phase? Earned value is the same, i.e. the assigned value for the phase.
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Example
Pre-Build
Build
Post-Build
Plan=50min.E.v=25%
Plan=100min.E.v=50%
Plan=50min.E.v=25%
If you are in the Build Phase, your Earned Value is 25%, because you have only finished Pre-build.
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Failure vs. Fault
Failure malfunction perceived by the user
Fault defect in the system, may cause failure
or not
FailureFault
Software system
0, many
causes
0, many1, many
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Failure
data to collectcalendar time, project time, execution timeeffect (bad data, loss of data, ...)location (product type, id)gravity (human injury, economic loss, ..)user profilerelated fault(s)
measuresclassification, count per classaverage time intervals
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Fault
data to collect effect (related failure, if any) location (product type, id) type (e.g. missing req, uninitialized var,
logic error, .. ) cause (communication, misunderstanding,
clerical, .. ) detecting method (test, inspection, ..) effort (finding and report handling)
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Change
data to collect location cause (related fault if corrective,
adaptive, perfective) effort
measures cost of failure
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Fault, Failure, Change
measures n open failures duration/effort to close a failure n failures discovered per v&v activity fault/failure density
faults/failures per modulefaults/failures per fpfaults/failures per loc
changes per document
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5.4 Personnel
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Project personnel
Key activities requiring personnel: requirements analysis system design program design program implementation testing training maintenance quality assurance
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Choosing personnel
ability to perform work interest in work experience with
similar applications similar tools or languages similar techniques similar development environments
training ability to communicate with others ability to share responsibility management skills
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Work styles
Extroverts: tell their thoughtsIntroverts: ask for suggestionsIntuitives: base decisions on feelingsRationals: base decisions on facts,
options
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Organizational structure
Depends on backgrounds and work styles of team members number of people on team
n people, max interactions = n2/2
management styles of customers and developers
Examples: Chief programmer team Egoless approach
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Organizational structures
Highly structured high certaintyrepetitionlarge project
Loosely structureduncertaintynew technologysmall projects
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5.5 Risk management
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Risk management
Project Management for adults
If you don’t actively attack the risks,
they will actively attack you
Tom Gilb
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Risk Management
Software system (functions, quality)
Calendar time Costs
Risks
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Risk management
Identify risksanalyze themquantify effects define strategies and plans to handle
them
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Risk
Future event that can have (bad) impact on project
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Boehm’s top ten risk items
Personnel shortfallsUnrealistic schedules and budgetsDeveloping the wrong functionsDeveloping the wrong user interfacesGold-platingContinuing stream of requirements changesShortfalls in externally-performed tasksShortfalls in externally-furnished componentsReal-time performance shortfallsStraining computer science capabilities
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Other common risks
instability of COTS (Commercial Off-The-Shelf) components/products
interface with legacystability of development platform (hw + sw) limitations of platformmulti-site developmentuse of new methodologies / technologiesstandards, lawsdevelopment team involved in other activities communication/language problems
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Risk management terms
Risk impact: the loss associated with the event
Risk probability: the likelihood that the event will occur
Risk control: the degree to which we can change the outcome
Risk exposure = (risk probability) x (risk impact)
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Three strategies for risk reduction
avoiding the risk: change requirements for performance or functionality
transferring the risk: transfer to other system, or buy insurance
assuming the risk: accept and control it
risk leverage = difference in risk exposure divided by cost of reducing the risk
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Company profiles and risk handling styles
project owner - takes charge of riskfixed price contractwork provider - no interest in risk
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RM Process
1- Risk assessment identification analysis ranking
2- Risk control planning monitoring
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Identification
identify risks checklist, taxonomies, questionnaires
PMI (Project Management Institute, PMBOK)SEI (SEI-93-TR-06)
• ex: technical, management, business risks
brainstorming experience
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Analysis
probability very high, high, medium, low, very low
impact catastrophic, critical, marginal,
negligible exposure
probability * impact
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Exposure
Impact/probability
Very high High Medium Low Very low
Catastrophic High High Moderate Moderate Low
Critical High High Moderate Low Null
Marginal Moderate Moderate Low Null Null
Negligible Moderate Low Low Null Null
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Ranking
By exposureby qualitative assessments
only higher exposure risks are handled
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RM Process
1- Risk assessment identification analysis ranking
2- Risk control planning monitoring
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Planning
For selected risks (high in exposure) define corrective actions evaluate cost, decide if acceptable insert actions in project plan
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Monitoring
follow project plan, including corrective actions
monitor status of risksidentify new risks, assess them,
update ranking
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Monitoring (2)
Is part of PM that has to consider also risk log (document) risk reviews (activities)
also with external assessorscan be coupled with project reviews
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Risk log
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Action Status
hw platformnot available
high Critical high Add softwareLayercompatiblewith otherplatforms
Under control
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Actions for risks
Personnel shortfalls hire the best, the most suitable, training,
team building, technical reviewsunrealistic schedules and budget
more detailed plans, iterative process, reuse, new plans
instability of components (COTS) qualification, detailed analysis of product and
vendor, software layer.
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inadequate requirements prototyping, JAD, iterative process, include user
representative in processJoint Application Development
inadequate user interface study user needs, usability analysis, prototyping
requirement changes suitable design, iterative process, rigid change
control
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Interface with legacy reengineering, encapsulation, incremental
change
subcontractors contracts and payments, team building,
assessments before and during
new technologies prototyping, cost benefit analysis
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References
www.pmi.org www.sei.cmu.edu Rapid Development - Taming Wild Software Schedules, Steve
McConnell, Microsoft Press, 1996 Software Engineering Risk Management, Dale Walter Karolak,
IEEE Computer Society Press, 1996 Assessment and Control of Software Risks , Caper Jones, Yourdon
Press, 1994 Software Risk Management - Principles and Practices, Barry
W.Boehm, IEEE Software, Vol 8, No. 1, Jan 1991, PP32-41 Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification, M.J.Carr et al., CMU/SEI-93-
TR-06, SEI, 1993 Www.riskwatch.com - Risk management tools