4th Nedbank EEBI JCSE Webinar Full Slide Deck

Energy storage and flexible generation to support variable

renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resiliencein South Africa

A dialogue hosted by Nedbank, EE Business Intelligence and JCSE at Wits University

DATE: Thursday 19 November 2020TIME: 12h00 to 14h30

Presentation 1by

Mr Clyde MallinsonConsultant


renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resilience

The next decade:

Watts in store?

Clyde Mallinson

19 November 2020

Terra

Incognita

2020 Shortage of:

ENERGY

POWER

FLEXIBILITY

The solution:

3GW SOLAR

2GW WIND

4GW/h STORAGE

$/k

W

$/k

Wh

700

250

40

$/k

W w

ind

an

d P

V,

$/k

Wh

sto

rage

231 TWh

100% wind, solar, & storage by 2030?

https://www.rethinkx.com

231 TWh + 120 TWh super power

90GW PV, 50GW Wind, 35GW/385GWh Storage

Clyde Mallinson

[email protected]

@clydemallinson

mailto:[email protected]

Presentation 2by

Crescent MushwanaCSIR Energy Centre



Grid reliability in a system dominated by VRE,

supported by pumped storage, gas and BESS

Energy storage & flexible generation to support variable

renewable energy, diversification, grid services & resilience in SA

4th Fourth webinar hosted by Nedbank, EE Business Intelligence and

JCSE, Wits University

19 November 2020

Crescent MushwanaREV 1

‹#›

Agenda

• Power system Reliability

• Solar PV and wind resources in South Africa

• The energy mix: solar PV, wind, storage and gas in the IRP

• High level transmission developments as per TDP

• Solar PV and wind statistics of installed power plants

36

Power system reliabilitySystem reliability is about satisfying the load requires in a economical way with while

assuring supply continuity and quality

Power System Reliability

System Adequacy

(Supply vs load balance; grid capacity)

System Security

(System Stability; responding to disturbances)

Grid Codes, Regulations, Supply standards (SAIDI, SAIFI, CAIDI) etc.

MTSAO and other operational guidelines

Grid Expansion Plans and Reliability projects

Sources: Basic Power System Reliability Concepts-Roy Billinton; CSIR analysisNotes: SAIDI – System Average Interruption Duration Index, SAIFI – System Average Interruption Frequency Index, CAIDI – Customer Average Interruption Duration Index,

MTSAO – Medium Term System Adequacy Outlook

37

Solar and wind resources in SASouth Africa has excellent wind and solar resources.

Sources: https://solargis.com/maps-and-gis-data, http://www.wasaproject.info/, CSIR analysis

To download high resolution wind data for South Africa visit: http://www.wasaproject.info

https://solargis.com/maps-and-gis-data

http://www.wasaproject.info/

http://www.wasaproject.info/

38

Solar and wind potential in REDZThe wind and solar PV resource potential in SA is so huge that even by 2050 country will not have used

even 20% of the potential, all this without compromising the environment and land use in general

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34-36

-34

-32

-30

-28

-26

-24

-22

Johannesburg

Cape Town

Durban

Upington

Port Elizabeth

Bloemfontein

Polokwane

Johannesburg

Cape Town

Durban

Upington

Port Elizabeth

Bloemfontein

Polokwane

Longitude

Latitu

de

EIA: Onshore Wind

EIA: Solar PV

REDZ

EIA applications: estimated Wind (90), PV(330); land use is roughly 1.21% of SA landREDZ: estimated Wind (530 GW), PV (1780 GW); land use is roughly 4.4% of SA land

Sources: CSIR - Wind and solar resource aggregation study (https://www.csir.co.za/study-shows-abundance-wind-and-solar-resources-south-africa)Note: EIA – Environmental Impact Assessment; REDZ – Renewable Energy Development Zone

All EIAs application areas:(status early 2016)Wind: 90 GWSolar PV: 330 GW

Latest info/reports and data download on REDZ for wind and solar PV can be obtained from: https://egis.environment.gov.za/redz

https://www.csir.co.za/study-shows-abundance-wind-and-solar-resources-south-africa

https://egis.environment.gov.za/redz

39

Solar PV and wind in the IRPNew capacity: solar PV (6 GW), wind (14.4 GW), storage (2 GW),

Gas (3 GW) – flexibility requirements starting to feature in the energy mix

Sources: DMRE, IRP 2019

40

IRP beyond 2030Wind and solar PV build limits, storage requirements and gas

• Solar PV and wind annual build limits: “In the long run and taking into account the

policy of a diversified energy mix, the annual build limits will have to be reviewed in

line with demand and supply requirement.” (DMRE, IRP 2019)

• “When energy storage costs were revised to the latest information, and taking into

account the longer gas infrastructure lead time, the power system selects more

energy storage. This can be expected, given the extent of the wind and solar PV

option in the IRP.” (DMRE, IRP 2019)

• “It must be noted that that the unconstrained gas is a ‘no regret option’ because the

power system calls for increased gas volumes when there are no constraints

imposed.” (DMRE, IRP 2019)

These statements extracted from the IRP 2019 clearly show that South Africa’s the future is high VRE shares coupled with storage and flexibility

41

Future energy systems will be built around

variability of solar PV & windActual scaled RSA demand & simulated 15-minute solar PV/wind power supply for

week from 15-21 Aug ‘11

Day of the week

SaturdayWednesday Thursday FridayMonday Tuesday Sunday

Excess Solar PV/Wind

Residual Load (flexible power)

Useful Wind

Useful Solar PV

Sources: CSIR analysis

Electricity Demand

42

Powers system stabilityBoth strong and weak power systems will experience stability issues

when high VRE shares are introduced

Power system stability is the ability of an electric power system, for a given initial operating condition, to regain a state of operating equilibrium after being subjected to a physical disturbance, with most of the system variables bounded so that practically the entire system remains intact” (IEEE/CIGRE) Primary focus

in strong systems

Common focus in weaker systems

43

Power system stability issuesSolutions to current and imminent stability issues exist and can be applied

Source: GIZ, “IRP2016: Discussion of potential limits to variable renewable energy installations,” 2017.

44

Storage and flexibility are criticalStorage and flexibility is about the functionality required buy the power system and thus should not be

boxed to certain technologies

• High shares of VRE results in high level ramping

requirements on the on the conventional power plant

• “Storage increases the technical reliability of the power

supply, stabilizes the cost of electricity and helps to

reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” (DNVGL)

• Storage, if properly sized as part VRE (wind or solar PV)

plant, can introduce a certain level of despatchability to

VRE

Sources: Energy Vault- https://www.startup.ch/EnergyVault; PHS - Reserchgate.net; FESS - https://doi.org/10.3390/app7030286

Flywheel Energy Storage System (FESS)

Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS)

Energy Vault storage system

https://doi.org/10.3390/app7030286

45

Selected energy storage technologies' capabilityFocus is on bulk energy storage technologies with capacities 20 MW and above

Source: https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019

https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019

46

Eskom Transmission Grid The grid is continuously being expanded and strengthened to meet a set reliability standards,

and flexibility and storage projects will be undoubtedly be added to the strengthening projects

Source: Eskom TDP, 2021-2030.

47

RE statistics for South Africa in 2019RE integration into the grid has been steadily increasing in South Africa since 2013, but from 2017 to

2019, there’s be no growth at all due to the halting of the REIPPPP, but things are poised to change

Source: Eskom, DMRE IPPO, CSIR Analysis

48

RE statistics for South Africa in 2019The performance of both solar PV and wind has met and exceeded expectations (especially wind) with

capacity factors showing minimal seasonal effects.

Source: Eskom, CSIR Analysis

49

RE statistics for South Africa in 2019Actual monthly average diurnal profiles of RE, showing a consistent supply profile; this performance

points the way to what the future energy system’s bulk supply profile will look like.


50

RE statistics for South Africa in 2019RE plants contribute to both morning and evening peak demand, therefore they do not only meet their

energy requirements but also alleviate pressure on the system during constrained periods.


51

In Conclusion: It is established that our future energy

systems will be built around variability of solar PV & windTechnologies and systems developed on the supply and demand side will be due electricity being the primary driver

supplied by wind and solar PV as bulk energy providers opening up opportunities for green H2 production etc.

Day of the week

SaturdayWednesday Thursday FridayMonday Tuesday Sunday

Excess Solar PV/Wind

Residual Load (flexible power)

Useful Wind

Useful Solar PV

Sources: CSIR analysis

Electricity Demand

Thank you

Presentation 3by

Mr Frederic VerdolWorld Bank



NEDBANK / EEBI / JCSE / WITS WEBINAR

BATTERY STORAGE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg Frederic Verdol

November 19, 2020 Senior Power Engineer

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

1. World Bank Support to Battery Storage Technology

2. Making The Case for Battery Storage in South Africa

3. Eskom Battery Storage Demonstration Program

4. Conclusion

1

1. WB SUPPORT TO BATTERY STORAGE TECHNOLOGY

2

What Happened Since WB Announced US$1bn Support to Battery Storage

Technology in 2018 ?

3

Marshall

Islands/Micronesia/Tuvalu

IDA

Solar+batteries for

sustainability and resilience

India

IBRD/CTF

Solar+wind+

batteries hybrids

CAR

IDA

Solar+batteries

emergency power in

FCV

Comoros

IDA ($40m)

Solar PV + Storage

for resilience

Guinea-Bissau

IDA (Proj. Prep.)Solar+batteries for

energy security

Board approved/

ActivePipeline

Indonesia

CTF (Proj. Prep.)

Solar+batteries in

smaller islands

IDA/IBRD pipeline: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, India, Maldives, Mali, Mongolia, Mexico,

Nicaragua, Pacific Islands, Senegal, Sri Lanka, The Gambia, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,

WAPP, Zanzibar

Grid integration/feasibility studies for optimal placement of batteries and auction preparations for

Hybrid Solar Parks (PV+batteries)

Haiti

IDA/SREP

Solar+batteries for

resilience

5000 minigrids with batteries in pipeline, under construction or commissioned for $710m

IDA/IBRD/CTF/SREP/GEF/CIF approved and $380m IDA/IBRD/CTF/SREP/GEF/CIF pipeline

The Gambia

IDA

Solar+batteries for

grid integration

Maldives

IDA+CTF

BESS for VRE

Integration

South Africa

IBRD/CTF

Grid batteries for

transmission deferral

and grid integration

China

IBRD

Battery storage for

grid integration

ECOWAS

IDA+CTF (Proj. Prep.)Battery storage for

grid support

Zanzibar

IDA+CTF (Proj. Prep.)

Battery storage for

VRE integration

Vietnam

CTF (Proj. Prep.)

BESS for VRE

integration

Ukraine

CTF (Proj. Prep.)

Standalone

batteries for

frequency regulation

Bangladesh

IDA+CTF (Proj.

Prep.)

Distribution-level

BESS

Burkina Faso/Mali

IDA+CTF (Proj. Prep.)Regional hybrid

Solar+BESS park

Tunisia

CTF (Proj. Prep.)

Dispatchable Solar

Power

WB Energy Storage Partnership (ESP) : A Global Platform to Share Practices

4

ESP

1. Power

systems

2. Testbed and

testing

protocols

3. Training and capacity building

4. Flexible

sector

coupling

5.

Decentralized

energy

storage

solutions

6. Enabling

policies and

procurement

frameworks

7. Reuse and

recycling of

batteries

58

NREL

NREL

NREL

Knowledge Sharing will be Key to Advance Battery Deployment

5

https://www.esmap.org/publications

https://www.linkedin.com/company/energy-storage-partnership

https://www.esmap.org/publications

https://www.linkedin.com/company/energy-storage-partnership

2. BATTERY STORAGE IN SOUTH AFRICA GRIDS : WHY NOW?

6

Grid Scale Battery Storage Technology Now Beyond Test Phase7,000+ MW in Operation, 15,000+ MW under Construction, Large Programs in most of Large Utilities

National Grid

(UK)

• Frequency

• Auctions

• 201 MW (2019)

• 8 Sites

EDF (World)

• Wind/Solar

• Program

• 10 GW (2030)

• 300 MW (2018)

PSC (NY)

• Re-purposing

• Program

• 316 MW (2020)

• 3000 MW (2030

Neoen (Australia)

• Wind

• 1 site

• 100 MW (2017)

• 50MW (2020)

Utilities (CA)

• Wind/Solar

• 360 MW (2018)

• 195 MW (2020)

• 182 MW (2020)

• 100 MW (2021)

KEPCO

(South Korea)

• Frequency

• Program

• 500 MW (2018)

• Multi-site

FP&L (FL)

• VRE Solar

• 409 MW (2021)

• 1 Site

7

Huanghe Hydro

(Qinghai Province)

• 2.2GW Solar

• 1 Site…

• 208 MW (2020)

• 10-month EPC

AES (Chile)

• 253MW Solar

• 112 MW (2021)

• 1 Site

Viable Energy Storage Applications

in South Africa Grids

• PV/Wind Integration and management

• Re-purposing of closing coal sites

• Better economic dispatch of thermal assets (CO2 savings)

• Less reliance on peakers (OCGT)

• Imports of cheap Hydropower

• Grid investment deferral (Tx and Dx)

• Grid stability (inertia, voltage and frequency control, local, national)

• Better integration of rooftop PV

• Back-up for Commercial customers

• Management of Prosumers

• Security of Supply for strategic customers

• Universal access to remote communities

8

Battery Storage, a Key Enabler for SA Post-Covid Green Economic Recovery Energy Storage provides the needed Flexibility for a SA Economy Recovery, Transition and Modernization

South Africa Can Be in All Segments of the Battery Storage Value ChainSupport to battery technology is meeting consensus across all stakeholders in South Africa

Battery Storage Value Chain Scale Up Potential (Global)

• Global Battery Value Chain Scale up by 2030 (Source: WEF / Global Battery Alliance report, Sept. 2019) :

• Battery Storage Global Investments to reach $620 billion by 2040 (Forbes, June 2019)

Support Battery Storage Value Chain Development in South Africa is getting traction

• Preparation of enabling environment for battery storage industrialization (DTI, NT, DEFF, NERSA, IDC)

• Battery Storage targets in the IRP, proposals including storage from the private sector (RMI4P RFI).

• Need to develop strategic cooperation with manufacturing countries but also with mineral rich neighboring countries

9

3. ESKOM BATTERY STORAGE PROGRAMME

10

2021

2022

Clean

Energy

Enabled

100 MW

Wind

Eskom Sere Wind (Multidonors financed)

80MW/320MWh Storage

equivalent capacity

- Displaced integration

- Curtailment Avoided

Min. 53 ktCO2

offset yearly

Eskom Battery Storage Program will Enable VRE Integration

Min. 133 ktCO2

offset yearly

New Wind/Solar Capacity (Private sector)

200 MW

Solar CSP

REIPPP Round 3.5(Private sector)

415 MW

Solar PV676 MW

Wind

- Coal Repurposing Program

- Intermittency Mitigated

- Displaced energy

500MWh/d Storage

equivalent on 7-8 sites

- Intermittency Mitigated

- Displaced energy

- Grid investment deferral

Selected sites for battery storage

Min. 212 ktCO2

offset yearly

640 MWh/d of Storage

equivalent (phase 2)

- Resilience in Remote Area

- Displaced energy

60 MW

Solar PV

Eskom distributed PV (Eskom financed)

Min. 80 ktCO2

offset yearly

60 MW of Eskom PV

capacity

11

Expected Benefits for SA, beyond The Eskom Program

Demonstration Effect, Transformational Potential

Utility perspective

• From a ‘traditional’ electricity producer to a modern energy manager function

• With incoming Wind and Solar IPPs by 2021, good timing to acquire ‘plug and play’ tools for Grid stability and re-skilling critical mass of utility staff

• Lessons from large-scale battery program useful to better integrate future decentralized / rooftop solar capacity

• More flexibility and more dispatchable clean energy thanks to the batteries, allowing to decommission old coal plants

South Africa perspective

• In a period of economic recovery, reliability of electricity supply is critical to attract private investment (industry, manufacturing)

• Scale up of battery technology to complement rapid expansion of least cost energy, critical for SA’s Recovery

• South Africa may be the only country in Africa where Integration and industrialization in the entire battery storage value chain (mining, manufacturing, operation) is feasible.

Africa region and Global perspective

• Over 6,000MW grid-scale batteries in operation worldwide, But NO battery connected to a grid in Africa

• Demonstration effect in South Africa will enable battery technology to expand faster in Africa (market pioneer advantage).

12

4. CONCLUSIONS

13

Main Messages

1. WBG will invest in 17.5 GWh of Battery Storage by 2025

2. In a polarized SA Energy sector, Battery Storage makes consensus

3. Eskom Battery Storage Program already bearing fruits

4. Need for an Integrated SA Battery Storage Value Chain Strategy

14

Ngiyabonga! (Thank You!)

Presentation 4by

Mr Alessandro SessaEnel Green Power



November 19th, 2020

Enel Green PowerAn international perspective on energy storage and flexible generation to support variable renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resilience

4th Nedbank EEBI JCSE webinar

70 mn customers

Largest retail customer base worldwide

73 mn end users

1st network operator

32 countries

Active in 5 continents

46 GW capacity

World’s largest player in renewables

42%

21%

29%

5% 3%

26%

1%

46%

18%

9%

17.9 €bn 17.9 €bn

ItalyIberiaLatin America

RoW4

North AmericaNetworksEnel Green PowerConventional generation

Enel X

Retail

Enel GroupThe leading global utility today

72

2019 EBITDA by business and by geography

Lusaka

Johannesburg

Nairobi

Casablanca

Enel Green Power in Sub-Saharan AfricaWhere we are

Country of presence

Country under development

Offices: ~ 170 employeesEnel Green Power RSA (Pty) Ltd

522 MW operation solar PV and wind

705 MW wind in construction

34 MW

Solar PV

COUNTRY OF PRESENCE

South Africa

Namibia

Kenya Zambia

COUNTRY UNDER DEVELOPMENT

Senegal EthiopiaIvory CoastGhana Tanzania BotswanaMozambique Uganda Rwanda

90% Historically

Disadvantaged Groups

~50% Women

73

ERCOT - USA

74

Enel Green Power Energy Storage Footprint

Microgrid

ITALY

1) Energy arbitrage

2) Resource adequacy

3) Primary reserve substitution

SPAIN

1) FEDER tender

2) Imbalance costs saving

3) Curtailment reduction

4) Energy arbitrage

PORTUGAL

1) Ancillary services

2) Resource adequacy

Microgrid

ETHIOPIAProjects under development

Projects In Execution or In

Operation519 MW

7.3 GW*

Committed projects and BESS in operations

PERU

Primary reserve

substitution

1) Spinning Reserve

2) Offtake risk mitigation

*including Phase Zero projects. As of Oct. 2020

488MW

15MW

7MW

COLOMBIA

Primary reserve

substitution

0.4MW

CHILE

0.2MW

68MW

32MW

23MW

75

1. An ancillary technology which enables RES to overcome

their residual intrinsic limitations in terms

of flexibility and dispatchability

2. It allows to reduce the risk profile of

investments both in terms of market

and regulatory risks (congestions,

imbalances, etc..)

3. It enables RES to provide additional

services both to grid and offtakers,

entering into new «blue ocean» markets

Why Renewables coupled with Storage?

+

Strategic Rationale of Energy Storage in EGP

Strong benefits of joint

development captured

through cost and

business synergies

76

Value drivers Where it is relevant

Improving

overall

investment

return

RES risk

mitigation

Business

enabler

▪ Markets with:

➢ Scarce system adequacy (and presence of capacity payments)

➢ Well developed ancillary services’ market allowing stacked

reserves

➢ Specific long term remuneration mechanism for RES+BESS

projects

▪ Markets with stringent requirements/penalties for RES generators

and/or high “base” risk (e.g. network congestions)

▪ Storage included as mandatory on regulated tenders for new RES

capacity or under a specific support scheme

▪ Replacement of Thermal power plants for Peak/firm generation

▪ Storage as critical factor to access at Subsidized Financing

▪ Generate additional margins for the integrated project through:

➢ Capacity payments for system adequacy

➢ Ancillary services

➢ Environmental attributes multipliers

250360

USA

Solar

USA Wind

Delta IRR RES+BESS vs RES only (bps)

▪ Reduce “base” risk, balancing costs/penalties and avoid curtailments;

USA

Wind

22%

Australia

Solar

USA Solar

4%8% 7%

12%

7%

RES Only

RES+BESS

Risk (relative sigmaIRR)Spread over Ke (bps)

RES Only RES + BESS

WORST BASE BEST

-294 19-14 8513 127

EU grants

RES + BESS tenders

Strategic rationale for storage addition on RES projects

▪ Countries with no market mechanisms that use

tenders to supply required services

▪ Countries introducing incentives to facilitate

energy transition

77

New technologies will play a key role in the S/D balance of electric systems all over the world

Flexible Capacity cumulated installation (GW)

Highlights

▪ “Renewables now cheapest across two-thirds of the world. By 2030

they undercut existing coal and gas almost everywhere.” (Key message

of BNEO ’19).

▪ The strong penetration of renewable energy will increase the need of

flexibility in the power systems. Storage and dynamic demand (demand

response, dynamic EV charging) will have to be deployed in order to:

o Compensate the intermittency of RES production;

o Shift bulk energy production in excess;

o Reduce the ramp-up of peakers at sunset;

▪ BESS will also contribute to system security and efficiency by providing

ancillary services to the grid at a lower cost compared to TPPs due to zero

downtime, start-up/shut down and ramping costs.

Typical hourly dispatch* in 2040 (GW)

722

71

Year

289

1.323

2020 2030 2040 2050

Small-scale batteries

Utility-scale batteries

Demand-side flexibility

* Source: BNEF New Energy Outlook 2019

Midwest

Energy Storage costs trends

78

The declining capex during last years and analysts consensus

457387

261 245 228194

157 132 118 107

73

126

5251

50

47

4238

35 34

6968

4342

41

38

3532

31

2016

234

338

2030

30

2022202020182017 20262019 2024 2028

319

203

599581

357

278

184 170

-47%

-47%

BESS turnkey BOP, Master Scada & EMS Other costs

736

527491

461 431365

292245 221 203

73

126

7371

71

65

58

5349

46

138

129

123122

119

113

107

103101

99

2022

654

2016 2017 20202018 2019 2026

371

2024 2028

348

687

2030

621

947

401

782

543

457

-34%

-44%

$/kWh

$/kWh

Battery pricing has shown a steep decline over the recent years and is expected to further decrease over time due to technology improvements,

manufacturing scale and competition between suppliers

Energy intensive – Load Shifting (C-rate:0.25)* Power Intensive - Ancillary services (C-rate:4)**

* BNEF projection for BESS 20MW/80MWh ** BNEF projection for BESS 40MW/20MWh

1 2

Batteries are well suited to provide a very large range of services both to host plant and the grid

Unbalancing

Cost

Reduction

Curtailment

Avoidance

Energy

Shifting

Profile

Firming

Basis Risk

Reduction

Spinning

Reserve

Resource

Adequacy

Frequency

regulation

Primary

Regulation

Substitution

Hours

Grid

event

MW

Offset of deviations between forecast and

actual real time production to minimize

balancing chargesHours

MW

Mitigation of basis risk between nodal and

nearest liquidly traded hub price through

energy shifting into the minimum price

differential.Hours

Hedging

Price

Captured

Price

Forecasted price Realized price

Production

Hours

MW

Time matching of the offtaker load profile

Hours

MW

Baseload

Release of host plant capacity otherwise

locked for mandatory primary reserve

provision.

Ancillary service: frequency regulation

service used to control the grid frequency

within operating bands

RES+BESS

THERMAL+BESS

HIGH – Anchor application

MEDIUM – Need of revenue stacking

PROFITABILITY

LOW – low profitable

CONFIGURATION

Peaking

CapacityMW

Hour

ALL MARKETS

WITH HOURLY

POWER PRICES

Capacity payment recognized for contribution

to system adequacy

Ancillary service: reserve provided online

resources of fast ramping units

Remuneration mechanism incentivizing

energy output during specific hours

Recovery of plant production otherwise lost

during a grid curtailment event

Shift of plant production to high priced hours

Voltage

Control and

Black Start

• Voltage control: through BESS reactive

power provision.

• Black Start: ancillary service used to restore

system after black-out

Higher value creation for services requiring high flexibility

and fast response capabilities

An

ch

or

ap

plic

ati

on

s



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