4Q 2016 Earnings Presentation
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Transcript of 4Q 2016 Earnings Presentation
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4Q16 & 2016 Earnings Results
“This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions established
by the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties.
The forward-looking statements in this presentation reflect the expectations of the Bank’s management and are based on currently
available data; however, actual experience with respect to these factors is subject to future events and uncertainties, which could
materially impact the Bank’s expectations. A number of factors could cause actual performance and results to differ materially from
those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the anticipated growth of the Bank’s
credit portfolio, including its trade finance portfolio; the continuation of the Bank’s preferred creditor status; the impact of increasing
interest rates and of the macroeconomic environment in the Region on the Bank’s financial condition; the execution of the Bank’s
strategies and initiatives, including its revenue diversification strategy; the adequacy of the Bank’s allowance for credit losses; the
need for additional provisions for credit losses; the Bank’s ability to achieve future growth, the Bank’s ability to reduce its liquidity
levels and increase its leverage; the Bank’s ability to maintain its investment-grade credit ratings; the availability and mix of future
sources of funding for the Bank’s lending operations; potential trading losses; the possibility of fraud; and the adequacy of the
Bank’s sources of liquidity to replace large deposit withdrawals.”
2
2016 Highlights
- Bladex reinforced core competencies in portfolio focus on short-term trade finance
- Unexpected economic events globally and a downturn in Latin-American
economies increased volatility and credit risk in the Region
- Greater diversification and lower concentration risk in our portfolio
• More diversified book of business
• Strong syndication and loan structuring
franchise in a dismal year for LatAm debt
capital markets
• Higher net revenues as the result of
disciplined pricing and very focused
asset & liability management
• Declining expenses (variable
compensation and other expenses) while
investing in technology
• Strong liquidity and funding mix with
increased capitalization levels
ACHIEVEMENTS
• Overall portfolio growth below
expectations, with selective retreat from
certain exposures
• Problem exposures identified over the
2015/2016 economic down-cycle have
risen YoY, but stay relatively confined to
specific countries, industries and clients
• Level of complexity of the restructuring
efforts, time to resolution and associated
loss expectations greater than expected
• Provisions for expected credit losses
(“ECL”) impacting the P&L, resulting in
strengthened reserve coverage
CHALLENGES
3
• Remain positive on expected portfolio growth (circa 10% YoY), with emphasis on
short term trade
• Continued diversification of exposures (Countries, Sectors and Clients)
• Fees and commissions growth based on L/Cs demand recovery and more
constructive debt capital markets
• Cost control focus remains with efficiency ratio <30%
• Expect lower pressure from provisions subject to NPL decline, but maintain
conservative reserve approach based on continually updated, forward-looking
expected loss
• Target double-digit RoE as capitalization stays robust
4
2017 Outlook
Cautiously optimistic for 2017 as Latin America shows improving economic
conditions across countries, but alert for the challenges arising from a
potentially more protectionist developed world
Determined to continue to build on Bladex’s fundamental strengths and
resilience to achieve higher levels of profitability and performance in 2017
2016 Achievements:
• NII growth despite lower average earning assets driven by higher net lending rates and
focused asset & liability management
• Decreased operating expenses mostly from:
- Lower performance-based variable compensation expense
- Other cost savings from process improvements
2016 Challenges:
• Higher provisions for ECL on certain exposures
• Lower fees and commissions in L/Cs business as issuances partially compensated
reduction in confirmation activity
5
Full Year Business Profit Evolution
(*) Business Profit: Profit before «Non-core» items
* *
• Higher provisions for ECL on certain exposures
• NII flat YoY, -5% QoQ reflecting portfolio mix shift towards shorter
tenors and lower average portfolio balances
• Fees and Other Income rebound QoQ as L/Cs business strengthened,
lower YoY on spike in 4Q15 closings in syndication business
• Operating expenses increased QoQ on seasonal effects, but 7% lower
YoY
6
Quarterly Business Profit Evolution
(*) Business Profit: Profit before «Non-core» items
* * * *
• Full Year Net Interest Income up 7% YoY as higher margins help offset lower
portfolio balances; QoQ variation reflecting lower average portfolio and mix shift
• Strong NIM growth, surpassing 2% level on improved lending spreads, despite
tenor mix shift towards short term trade, along with the favorable positioning of
assets and liabilities in a rising interest rate environment
7
Net Interest Income & Financial Margins
• Cost effective funding mix with average CoF
rising at slower pace than underlying base rate
• Deposits up to 46% in overall funding mix from
39% as of December 31, 2015
• Executed first Tokyo Pro-Bond market issuance
Funding Sources and Cost of Funds
Deposits by Type of Client
(As of December 31, 2016)
Funding Sources by Geography
(As of December 31, 2016)
Funding Sources
8
+28 pbs +3 pbs
+28 pbs +5 pbs
• Continued re-balancing of portfolio
profile for greater diversification
and lower concentration risk
• Short-term and trade mix both
increased +10 ppts. YoY to 60%,
66% respectively
• Brazil exposure stabilized at 18%,
down from 23% in YE’15
• Country/sector/client
concentrations dialed down 9
Commercial Portfolio Highlights
* Matures within one year
• Overall well balanced sector exposure
• Focus on key trade oriented sectors with
favorable terms-of-trade
• Oil & Gas exposure shift to Integrated;
Upstream exposures at multi-year lows
• Commercial portfolio remaining maturity of
269 days from 330 days at YE’15
Regional Exposure by Industry as of December 31, 2016
10
Commercial Portfolio Exposure by Industry
• Multi-year de-concentration trend
• Brazil’s portfolio focused on large FIs
and export-oriented industries enjoying
favorable terms-of-trade 11
Commercial Portfolio – Brazil Exposure Update (As of December 31, 2016)
• Problem exposures identified over the 2015/2016 economic down-cycle
have risen YoY, giving rise to NPL and provisions for ECL, but stay
relatively confined to specific countries, industries and clients
• NPL down to $65MM (1.09%) in 4Q from $84MM (1.31%) in 3Q,
mainly from charge-off of Upstream Oil & Gas exposure following
completed restructuring
- Charge-off in line with specific reserve established in 2015 for
ECL
• Brazil represents 3/4 of all NPL exposure (from 59% in 3Q)
12
Credit Quality - NPL
IFRS Rule 9 - Stage 1: Collectively assessed performing exposures based on 12-month ECL; IFRS Rule 9 - Stage 2: Performing exposures assessed based on lifetime ECL; IFRS Rule 9 - Stage 3: Credit-impaired financial assets (“NPL”) based on
lifetime ECL
• Total allowance for ECL of $111.8MM, +$16.4MM YoY, flat vs. 3Q16:
- (+) Higher provision for NPL (Stage 3) reflecting sluggish restructuring progress
- (+) Higher provision for performing Stage 2 loans on lifetime expected losses
- (-) Lower requirement for performing Stage 1 loans on 12-month expected losses
- (-) Charge-off of Upstream Oil & Gas exposure following completed restructuring 13
Credit Quality - Allowances
• YoY Variation:
- Bladex Syndications franchise grew transacted volumes and # of closed deals (+76%
and +43% respectively) in depressed LatAm debt capital markets
- Structuring fees declined YoY on lower average fee per transaction
- Lower fees and commissions in L/Cs business as issuances partially compensated
reduction in confirmation activity
• QoQ Variation:
- 2 syndicated transactions in 4Q16 vs. 3 in 3Q16
- L/Cs business rebound on improved demand and client diversification 14
Fees & Other Income
• Full Year Business Efficiency ratio improves to 26% on higher
business income and lower operating expenses:
- Lower variable performance-based compensation expense
- Cost take-out from process improvements
15
Operating Expenses and Efficiency Ratios
• Business ROAE down 2016 vs. 2015 on increased provision for ECL and higher
capital base
• Tier 1 Basel III ratio strengthens to 17.9% on increased capital base (+3% YoY) and
lower RWAs (-7% YoY) reflecting lower portfolio balances
16
ROAE and Capitalization
• Bladex shares offered a 2016
Total Rate of Return of 21%,
including dividend yield of
5.9%
• Annual dividend per share
unchanged at $1.54/share
• $0.385/share declared for
4Q16 (5.4% annualized yield)
• Valuations remain very
attractive at consensus 10.5x
forward 12-month P/E, and
1.1x (P/BV) as of December
31, 2016
Source: SNL Financial, based on 23 Latin American peers of Argentina,
Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Panama 17
Shareholder Returns
Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P.
Thank You
18
Appendix
19
Key Financial Metrics
(1) Non-Core Items includes the net results from the former participations of the investment funds recorded in the “gain (loss) per financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss” line item and other income and other
expenses related to investment funds.
(2) Adjusted EPS corresponds to earnings per share excluding Non-Core Items. 20
Quarterly Results Year to Date Results
(In US$ million, except percentages) 4Q16 3Q16 4Q15 QoQ YoY 2016 2015 YoY
Business Profit $13.3 $28.0 $25.3 -52% -47% $91.5 $99.0 -8%
Non-Core Items (1) - - (2.0) n.m. n.m. (4.4) 5.0 n.m.
Profit for the period $13.3 $28.0 $23.2 -52% -43% $87.0 $104.0 -16%
EPS (US$) $0.34 $0.72 $0.60 -52% -43% $2.23 $2.67 -17%
Business EPS (US$) (2) $0.34 $0.72 $0.65 -52% -47% $2.34 $2.54 -8%
Return on Average Equity ("ROAE") 5.3% 11.2% 9.5% -53% -45% 8.8% 11.0% -20%
Business Return on Average Equity ("Business ROAE") 5.3% 11.2% 10.4% -53% -49% 9.2% 10.4% -12%
Return on Average Assets (ROAA) 0.73% 1.50% 1.17% -52% -38% 1.16% 1.32% -12%
Busines Return on Assets ("Business ROAA") 0.73% 1.50% 1.27% -52% -43% 1.22% 1.25% -2%
Net Interest Margin ("NIM") 2.05% 2.13% 1.90% -4% 8% 2.08% 1.84% 13%
Net Interest Spread ("NIS") 1.79% 1.89% 1.72% -5% 4% 1.84% 1.68% 10%
Loan Portfolio 6,021 6,393 6,692 -6% -10% 6,021 6,692 -10%
Commercial Portfolio 6,444 6,688 7,155 -4% -10% 6,444 7,155 -10%
Total Allowance for ECL on loans, loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts
to Commercial Portfolio 1.73% 1.67% 1.33% 4% 30% 1.73% 1.33% 30%
Non-Performing Loans to Gross Loan Portfolio (%) 1.09% 1.31% 0.78% -17% 39% 1.09% 0.78% 39%
Total Allowance for ECL on loans, loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts
to Non-Performing Loans (x times) 1.7 1.3 1.8 28% -6% 1.7 1.8 -6%
Efficiency Ratio 28% 26% 30% 8% -7% 27% 30% -8%
Business Efficiency Ratio 28% 26% 29% 8% -2% 26% 31% -14%
Market Capitalization 1,153 1,104 1,010 4% 14% 1,153 1,010 14%
Assets 7,181 7,287 8,286 -1% -13% 7,181 8,286 -13%
Tier 1 Capital Ratio Basel III 17.9% 15.9% 16.1% 13% 11% 17.9% 16.1% 11%
Leverage (times) 7.1 7.2 8.5 -2% -17% 7.1 8.5 -17%
"n.m.": not meaningful.
(*) End-of-period balances.
Results
Performance
Portfolio Quality (*)
Efficiency
Scale &
Capitalization (*)