Chapter 4

DBMOGRAPBIC CBABGB ARD TBB AGRARIAN BCOROMY

Thi~ chapter attempts to test the empirical validity of some of

the dominant assertions pertaining to the location of the

demographic variable in historical change, using data from

colonial Malabar. By providing estimates of important demographic

indices at the district level it adds to the sparse material on

colonial Indian demography, using registration data to complement

the Census. The objectives are to: a) chart Malabar's population

history from the early nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century,

b) .sketch the movement in the region's vital rates. An analysis

of colonial Malabar's fertility levels will be useful in checking

the assumption that India (shared with other Oriental

countries),a very high pre-transitional fertility regime, and c)

discuss the interrelationship if any between demographic and non

demographic variables and their relative impact on the agrarian

152

economy. 1

Demographic changes have been emphasized as the crucial motor

of social transformation by a number of historians. These works

in spite of their many differences have at least one common

assumption, i.e. the centrality of the demographic as a social

determinant. This shared understanding of these scholars allows

one to club them together under the broad but useful category of

the "population-induced change school". Among others M.M.Postan

and Le Roy Ladurie may be taken as representative of this stream

of analysis. 2 The assumptions of Postan and Ladurie, in their

discussions of pre-capitalist Europe are very clearly Malthusian,

these being (a) the incapability of the economy to increase

agricultural productivity through technological changes, (b) the

operation of the law of diminishing returns in agriculture, and

(c) an inherent tendency for the population to increase. Given

these assumptions it would logically and inevitably follow that

the demand for food would outstrip supply over time, upsetting

the model's long term validity. To overcome this problem,

1. Nigel Crook, "On the comparative historical perspective: India, Europe, The Far East" in Dyson, ed. India's Historical Demography, Curzon Press, London, 1989, p.286.

2. M.M Postan, Medieval Economy and Society, Middlesex, 1972; Le Roy Ladurie, Peasants of Languedoc, Chicago,1980

153

demography has been attributed a homeostatic character with an

ability to change its rate and direction of change through the

operation of Malthusian positive checks taking the form of

subsistence crises. This seemingly neat model of population

inspired historical change is seriously handicapped by its

refusal to take into account the historically conditioned social

relations and forces of production, which to a very large extent

prepare the material conditions which generate demographic shifts

and also provide the social setting upon which demographic

changes differentially impact.

A radical variant of this formulation is Esther Boserup's

avowedly anti-Malthusian argument for the capability of

population increase to trigger off technological innovations in

agriculture. 3 Arguing against the fundamental Malthusian

postulate of an inelastic supply of land and decreasing returns

to labour, Boserup proposes that increased labour supply due to

population pressure more than cancels out the lowered

productivity due to the bringing in of marginal lands. She

contends that increased population densities result in harder

work by farmers and more efficient work routines. In spite of her

3. Esther Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure, George Allen and Unwin, London, 1965

154

attempts to reverse the Malthusian argument, Boserup like the

Malthusians, attributes independent transformative power to

changes in population sizes and densities. The major theoretical

weakness of this approach is its refusal to recognize that

demographic changes may themselves be the cumulative product of

the interaction between multiple social structures.

Recent works on "proto-industrialization" have also primarily

depended on demographic analysis in examining the social impact

of rural industrialization before the Industrial Revolution. 4

Apart from a number of shortcomings the "proto-industrialization"

literature is plagued by innumerable incomplete and rather loose

propositions. For ~nstance, how regularly did sharp population

increases precede the linking up of cheap labour to rural

industries? If proto-industrial opportunities did indeed lower

the age at first marriage and increase fertility then why did not

the tightening of the job market produce an opposite effect?

Finally, the proponents of proto-industrialization give th~

impression that these demographic tendencies were peculiar to

4. For representative writings on _"proto-industrialization" see Franklin F .Mendels, "Proto-Industrialization: The First Phase of the Industrialization Process" J.E.H., xxxii,1972; Wolfram Fischer, "Rural Industrialization and Population Change" C.S.S.H.,xv,1972; Kriedte, Schlumbom, et. al., ed., Industrialization before Industrialization.

155

industrial populations whereas, it has been observed that "before

1900 the bulk of the rapid population increase resulting from the

Western demographic transition occurred among the rural

landless." 5

The Marxist position on this problem is a total rejection

of the claim that the demographic variable is autonomous and

constitutes the most crucial exogenous determinant of social

change. Robert Brenner, an exponent of the dominant Marxist view

has examined the specific question of the relative significance

of the demographic variable in the decline of feudalism in

Western Europe. The crux of Brenner's argument in his own words

is as follows, "· .. it is the structure of class relations, of

class power, which will determine the manner and the degree to

which particular demographic changes will affect long-run trends

in the distribution of income and economic growth and not vice­

versa."6 While correct in emphasizing the primacy of class

relations in the context of the transition from feudalism to

5. Ronald Lee, "Models of Pre-Industrial Fertility Dynamics for England" in Charles Tilly ed., Historical Studies of Changing Fertility, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1978

6. Robert Brenner, "Agrarian Class Structure and Economic Development in Pre-industrial Europe", Past and Present, No.70, February 1976, p.31

156

' capitalism or in the capitalist epoch Brenner fails to recognize

that in precapitalist social formations demographic change

(though conditioned by social processes) could have a greater

transforming capacity vis-a-vis the capitalist order. Unlike the

capitalist economy in some precapitalist economies there were no

unutilized but utilizable reserve production factors. Hence, the

availability of manpower assumed great significance in the

development of these economies. 7 It appears as though this

hesitancy to concede the explanatory potential of demographic

changes on the part of modern day Marxists stems from their

tendency to extrapolate retrospectively the Marx vs. Malthus

polemics. In the first volume of Capital Marx wrote - "The

labouring population therefore produces, along with the

accumulation of capital produced by it, the means by which itself

is made superfluous, is turned into relative surplus population,

and it does so to an always increasing extent. This is a law of

population peculiar to the Capitalist modes of production. and in

fact every historic mode of production has its own special laws

of population. historically valid within its limits only." (my

7. This argument is borrowed from Witold Kula, An Economic Theory of the Feudal System, London, 1976

157

emphasis) 8

In spite of Marx's warning that the "laws" of population are

historically defined, Marxists like Brenner seem to have

mechanically applied, the location of population dynamics in the

capitalist epoch for precapitalist times also in their eagerness

to counter the neo Malthusian myths on population ied historic

transformations.

In economic history works one gets the impression that the

demographic variable in spite of its capacity to effect changes

in the overall economic structure is-largely denied substantial

backward linkages with the economic whole. While proximate

explanations for population changes are attributed to subsistence

crises or pandemic diseases, attempts to structurally relate the

demographic variable to other economic variables have been

nonexistent till very recently.

Historical demography in the Indian context is a discipline

which had failed to attract any serious scholarly interest till a

recently. It may be said that the bulk of the studies on India's

past population have limited themselves to estimating population

sizes at various points of time, using highly questionable

methods. In the last two decades Western scholarship has begun to

6. Karl Marx, Capital vol.I, 1978 p.693

158

take some interest in reconstructing India's demographic history.

Attempts were made to relate the regional and subcontinental

demographic trends to economic movements and in some cases to

epidemiological developments. In the very recent past a few

historians have·tried to integrate demography as an internal

variable into a an analysis of changes in the rural economy. 9

Section I The Data Base

The main sources for reconstructing Malabar's demographic history

are the decadal Censuses, pre-Census population enumerations and

the Annual Report of the Sanitary Commissioner for Madras. For

the early 19th century upto 1871 we have only the pre-Census

population counts supplying information on the total population

size and its sex-wise, religion-wise and caste-wise distribution.

Fortunately, for the larger part of the Census era we have

independently collected annual vital rates for the population in

the Reports of the Sanitary Commissioner for each district of the

9. See Sugata Bose, The New Cambridge Economic History of India III: 2: Peasant Labour and Colonial Capital: Rural Bengal Since 1770, Vasant Kaiwar, 'Property structures, demography and the crisis of the agrarian economy of colonial Bombay Presidency' in David Ludden, ed., Agricultural Production and Indian History, Oxford University Press, Delhi, 1994.

159

Madras Presidency beginning in 1867. The RSCM recorded vital

statistics, causes of mortality, grain prices and the nature of

the season and health conditions of the population every year.

The data furnished in the RSCM was collected by the village

headman who was also the Registrar of Births and Deaths. The

RSCM's raw data on birth and deaths can thus be used for

constructing an alternate series to the Census figures after

making certain corrections.

With some exceptions in recent years, demographers and others

have shied away from using annual vital rates for studying the

country's past demographic behaviour. Vital registration

statistics in India have been faulted for careless enumeration

and under reporting. In Madras year after year with monotonous

regularity the sanitary Commissioner's Report lamented severe

under reporting - "Registration of vital statistics is generally

very backward in the rural tracts of the Presidency, due

principally to there being no legal compulsion on the part of the

residents to report all cases of births and deaths. The

innumerable duties attached to the village headmen who are also

the Registrars of Births and Deaths in these areas and the

consequent lack of much interest on their part in the conduct of

this part of their work also contribute to the present

160

unsatisfactory results." 10 The Madras vital registration figures

have constantly trended lower than that for the rest of the

country. This differential appears to be in large part a result

of under registration of births and deaths. In Malabar and for

the Presidency as a whole, however, the crude rate of natural

increase (CRNI) i.e. the difference between the births and deaths

corresponded fairly well with the increase in Census population

size. This correspondence, however, should not be mistaken for

good vital registration coverage. Malabar ranked only twentieth

among the twenty five districts of Madras in terms of

registration of vital events in 1926. 11 The completeness of

vital registration coverage was the matter of a controversy

between the Superintendent of the Census operation and the

Director of Public Health. The former in his report on the 1921

Census maintained that "it does not appear that the registration

of births And deaths in the various districts is badly

defective." 12 By deducting the number of deaths for the less than

one year age cohort from the registered number of births in 1920,

10. RSCM, 1915, p.27

8. See Madras Public Health. Review of the Public Health Report. Local Self Government, Madras, n.d.

12. RSCM, 1923, p.3

161

he found that the remainder approximated closely to the

population returned in the 1921 Census for the 0 to 1 age group.

This was taken as proof for the completeness of vital

registration.

Such a test for registration coverage is erroneous because under

enumerated births and under registered deaths can provide a CRNI

figure corresponding to intercensal population change. The

correspondence of CRNI with intercensal population increase

suggest that while vital registration may not have been complete

the enumerated sample is fairly well representative of the

demographic behaviour of the whole population. Certain marked

deviations from the CijR and CDR trends for some years may be

attributed to erroneous figures.

The raw age specific death registration data has been corrected

with age-wise population figures for under enumeration using the

Brass Growth Balance method. 13 The advantage with annual and

monthly vital registration series is that unlike the census

10. W.Brass, "Estimating Mortality from Deficient Data" in Methods for Estimating Fertility and Mortality from Limited and Defective Data, University of North Carolina: POPLAB Occasional ·Publication, 1975. See Tim Dyson and Arup Maharatna, "Excess Mortality during the Great Bengal Famine: A re-evaluation" I.E.S.H.R., xv111, 3, 1991 for its application to pre­independence Indian vital statistics.

162

information it allows a study the interrelationship of

demographic movements and changes in other short run variables.

However, given the under coverage of vital statistics and the

approximate means of correction it would be prudent to use them

as indicators of a trend rather accurate absolute values.

The decennial censuses from 1871 onwards provide the main source

for the demographic history of India. Vital rates with their

marked underreporting are usually compared and corrected with

Census information. The Madras Presidency had regular

quinquennial population enumerations from 1851-52 till the taking

of the first all India Census of 1871 conducted by the East India

Company's Board of Revenue. 14 .

In Malabar these quinquennial Censuses were preceded by

·population enumerations in 1821 and 1827. 15 and 1837, and rough

estimations in 1802 and 1808.

The extremely high growth rates in the years upto 1871 (See

Table 5.1) strongly suggest an artificial inflation of growth

14. Quinquennial Census data has been based on the summary provided in Census of India, Cochin, Coorg and Madras, Vols. I­II, 1872, I.D.C. Micro Edition.

15. See Captain B.S Ward "Memoirs, Triangles and Statistics of Malabar,1828 and "A Canashoomaree or Statistical Table of the Province of Malabar" Mss., A Catalogue of the Historical Maps of the Survey of India, N.A.I.

163

rates due to improved coverage at the later dates. Accepting

these early population estimates and figures uncritically appears

to have been one of the reasons why the late 18th century has

been depicted in much of Indian historiography as a period of

depopulation.

Section II Pre-1871 Popu1ation Enumerations

Population estimates for the pre-statistical era are for large

parts of the subcontinent. Moreland estimated the population of

India at 100 million using an assumed soldier to population ratio

for the Deccan (30 million) and the labour necessary to cultivate

the given area under cultivation for Northern India (70

million) . 16 All the other estimates are based on backward

projections of the Census estimates. 17 All these estimates except

that of/Swaroop and Lal suggest an increase in the rate of change

between 1650-1750 and the nineteenth century. Many of the

estimates indicate a slackening of growth in the first half of

the nineteenth century with annual ,growth rates below one per

16. W.H.Moreland, India at the Death of Akbar: an Economic Study, 1990 reprint, Delhi, pp. 9-22

17. See Visaria,"Population (1757- 1947)" in Dharma Kumar, ed., Cambridge Economic History of India Vol. II, pp.525-27, Appendix 5.1

164

cent. Apart from Moreland's the other estimates of precensus

population size are backward projections of the population trends

in the census period. The assumptions of a linear or logistic

rate of growth for temporally remote and historically different

epochs make most of these estimates highly arbitrary.

Madras, in contrast to other Presidencies, had a long

history of population enumeration. Here the Board of Revenue

required each district head to make quinquennial returns of the

population of his district. 18 The methods employed in the

enumerations of 1821-22 and 1836-37 are not known. 19 In 1849, the

Government of India decided to conduct five yearly population

counts employing revenue officials. This resulted in quinquennial

censuses in Madras between 1851-52 and 1866-67. The fifth

quinquennial census was of 1871-72 was merged with the first

Imperial Census. Village magistrates and accountants who had

conducted the earlier censuses were deputed as enumerators for

the first all India Census.

Table 5.1 gives the uncorrected population figures at various

points of time from the early 19th century.

18. Census, 1872, Report, vols. I- II, I.D.C. Micro Edition.

19. ibid.

165

Table 5.1 Malabar Population, Rates of Growth

YEAR Total Annual Compound Population Rate of Growth (per cent)

1821 907575 N.A. 1827 1022195 2.00 1837 1165791 1.32 1851 1514909 1.89 1856 1602914 1.14 1861 1709.081 1.29 1866 1856378 1.67 1871 2261250 4.03 1881 2365035 0.45 1891 2641928 1.11 1901 2790281 0.55 1911 3015119 0.78 1921 3098871 0.27 1931 3533944 1.32 1941 3929425 1.07 1951 4758342 1.90

Sources: S . M . , Census, Ward, o:g.cit.

The annual rate of growth calculated on the basis of these

figures show a massive jump between 1802 and 1808 followed by a

high but less marked growth upto 1866. It suggests that the

period of quinquennial enumeration and the census period rates of

growth exhibit plausible and comparable rates of increase.

Similarly the 1821 to 1851 figures also exhibit plausible growth

rates. The 1802 and 1871 figures stand out as sharp outliers.

166

While the 1802 enumeration appears to be a severe underestimate,

the 1871 figure suggests much larger coverage compared to the

quinquennial surveys.

The population figures till 1871 need substantial correction

before they can be used even as approximate indicators of the in

population change. 2° Female under enumeration has been repeatedly

stressed as the bane of Indian censuses. With a significant

section of the population in Malabar following the matrilineal

system one would expect a favourable feminity ratio which is seen

in the post-1871 censuses in the earlier period also. The average

sex ratio for 1856, 1861 and 1866 (1013) has been assumed to have

held true for the pre-1881 period also. This imputed value has

been used to make upward revisions in the female population

registered by the pre-census enumerations. 21 The quinquennial

20. The 1871 census also appears to have under counted women. This is suggested by a S.R of 993 which is 1.7 per cent less than the average for 1866 and 1881.

21. The Sex Ratio (No. of Females/No. of Males X 1000) shows a small but constant increase from 1856 to 1931, except for a possibly erroneous sharp drop in 1871 (1871 SR = 993). We have imputed the 1856-61 average for the 1802 and 1827 population returns, because its greater proximity in time to these years than the post 1881 sex ratios. SRs do not change very rapidly and it would be safe to assume a constant SR for a period of about thirty years.

167

enumerations from 1851-52 to 1866-67 and the 1827 enumeration

provide sex-wise population breakup. For the 1802 census we have

imputed the 1827 sex ratio to estimate the number of males and

females. In Table 5.2 the column ESTl gives the population

corrected for female under enumeration. However, even after

correcting for female under counting, substantial under coverage

is evident in the earlier enumerations. Unfortunately for Malabar

there are no reliable figures for the area under cultivation

before the late 19th century. The total map area cannot be taken

as a correction factor because a secular decline in the

district's area is accompanied by a continuous increase in its

population.

Table 5.2 Estimated Growth Rates of Uncorrected and Estimated Populations of Malabar 1821 to 1881

Year TPOP ROG ESTl ROGl S.R

1821 907575 N.A. N.A. ' N.A. 1827 1022195 2.002 1052523 N.A. 955 1837 1165791 1.323 N.A. N.A. 1851 1514909 1.889 1541615 N.A. 1856 1602914 1.136 1638999 1.012 1027 1861 1709081 1.291 1729789 1. 011 1006 1866 1856378 1.667 1878839 1. 017 1006 1871 2261250 4.025 '2792316 1.040 993 1881 2365035 0.450 2369685 1.003 1014

Source: Computed on the basis of Ward, op.cit., Statistics of Malabar and various issues of the Imperial Census, Madras R.O.G. annual compound growth rate; S.R. unrevised sex ratio.

168

Drastic revisions in the size and number of the traditional

administrative units such as the desam and the nad render them

incomparable over time and therefore useless as correction aids

for adjusting the population figures. Another surrogate index for

the extent of government population enumeration is the number of

'houses. In Malabar houses were taxed under the Mohtu~ha head of

revenue till 1861 when it was discontinued in favour of a general

income tax. House counts are available for the years 1828, 1832-

33 and 1860-61. The number of occupants per house is estimated at

six which corresponds to the average of the 1871 and 1881 census

figure of 5.8. The enumerated number of houses has then been

multiplied by six to get a revised population estimate. However,

even after making an upward revision using the above correction

factor the estimated population remained below the raw aggregate

figure. This was possibly due to underenumeration of houses or

non-inclusion of the very poor homesteads. The relatively small

rate of population increase between 1821 and 1836 was a

phenomenon experienced in most regions of Madras. In 1818 a

cholera ~pidemic in the Presidency resulted in a large increase

in mortality from 1818 to 1826-27. Madras was subjected to a more

deadly epidemic in 1833-34 which was preceded by a devastating

169

famine. 22 Though in Malabar there was no absolute decline in

population size these epidemics appear to have decelerated the

rate of population increase. 'The steep increase in population

from 1851-52 to 1871, especially in the last five years appears

to be largely the result of better counting at the latter date.

Between 1866-67 and 1871 the registered population grew by 21.8

percent. During this period Wynad taluk registered an increase of

122.5 percent, contributing substantially to the general increase

in the district's population. Apart from Wynad where European run

plantations expanded rapidly and consequently led to a large

influx of labourers, the sudden acceleration in the other taluks

reflect a spurious rise caused by more complete coverage in 1871.

Section III The Census Period- Mortality and Ferti1ity

Trends

In this Section an attempt is made to chart the movement of

mortality and fertility in colonial Malabar using the decennial

Census and the annual vital rates statistics from the RSCM. The

RSCM provides a rich source for reconstructing the district's

mortality and fertility trends. Annual death data is available

22. Census, Madras, vol.I, 1872

170

from 1866. 23

Even a cursory inspection of the annual birth and death data

for Malabar suggest gross under enumeration. However, when the

CRNI is calculated from the raw birth and death figures it

exhibits only a small degree of under enumeration (compared to

the rate of intercensal increase) amounting to less than 5

percent for.the period 1871 to 1931. This appears to have been

caused by under registration of both births and deaths. However,

the monthly and seasonal movements in mortality and fertility

show recursive patterns. Sharp increases in mortality figures are

also registered in years of major epidemics and subsistence

crises. All this points to the conclusion that though mortality

and fertility figures are low in absolute terms, they did

sensitively mirror short term fluctuations. The changing levels

of under registration over time, however, prevents the use of

this data in its raw form for constructing time series of

mortality and fertility based measures for periods exceeding a

decade. A marked improvement in the level of registration is

claimed by the 1920s. Such changes in coverage render the

uncorrected series unsuitable for medium and long run analysis.

23. The gaps in the different series constructed on the basis of RSCM data is due to the unavailability of the complete RSCM series in India.

171

In this chapter the Brass Growth Balance Method has been

employed to estimate the level of death registration around each

Census year from 1881, when age specific population figures were

made available for the first time in the Indian Census. 24

Table 5.3 gives the estimated correction factors and the

level of completeness of registration. The assumption being made

here is that the average of the correction factors for two census

years will provide a deficient but working revision factor for

that intercensal period. Though this method is not the most

robust its simplicity and the fact that the present analysis is

not attempting to accurately chart the changes in annual

mortality and fertility justifies its use. Even when the

regression coefficient of dx/nx+ on nx/nx+ is not statistically

significant, the slope of the equation can be used to estimate

the level of under registration.

16. See United Nations, Manual X: Indirect methods for demographic estimation, New York, 1983, pp.139-146 and Tim Dyson and Arup Maharatna,"Excess mortality during the Bengal Famine: A re-evaluation", I.E.S.H.R., xviii, 3, 1991

172

Table 5.3 Estimated Levels of Death under-registration in Malabar using the Brass' Growth Balance Method

Year Sex Slope (K) Completeness of registration (C) %

1881 Male 4.914 20.40 Female 3.196 31.28

1891 Male 1.466 68.24 Female 1.471 68.00

1901 Male 1.395 70.70 Female 1.328 75.30

1911 Male 1. 885 53.04 Female 2.164 42.21

1921 Male 1.305 76.61 Female 1.485 67.35

1931 Male 1.187 84.75 Female 1.485 67.35

Source: Calculated from data in Census and R.S.C.M . The reciprocal of the slope of the regression partial death rate (Dx+/Nx+) on partial birth rate (Nx/Nx+) provides the level of completeness of registration.

Dx+= Registered deaths above age x. Nx+= Population above age x. Nx= Population at exact age x.

Mortality

For the period 1871 to 1930 the crude rate of natural increase on

the whole exhibited an upward trend. Figures 1.a and b show the

movement in the corrected and uncorrected crude birth and death

rates. A small decrease in the birth death rates can be noticed

173

after the 1877 famine up to t~e 1890s~. From the 1890s to 1919

both these rates climb steeply to decline subsequently. Mortality

improves substantially in the post 1921 period increasing the gap

between the Crude Death Rate and the Crude Birth Rate. The

beginning of the sustained fall in mortality and the consequent

rapid population growth in Malabar can be placed around 1912 if

we decide to exclude the mortality peaks caused by the influenza

epidemic of 1918 and the dysentery and cholera epidemic of 1919.

The infant death rate curve also exhibits a sustained downward

trend from this period (see Graph 4.1 Infant Death Rate).

In Malabar unlike the rest of the sub-continent, though

mortality played a crucial role in limiting population growth, it

was fertility rather than mortality which explained the rate of

population growth and population size. The following regressions

run on the dependent variables 'rate of natural increase' or

R.N.I. and the estimated annual population or ESTPT with

independent variables MACBR3 and MACDR3, these being three year

moving averages of the crude birth and death rates respectively.

The birth rate explained the rate of natural increase more

174

significantly than mortality. 25 The R squared value of the

equation is small as other factors such as migration which have

been omitted may have influenced the rate of increase. However,

given the statistical significance of the birth parameter

estimate and the fact that the equation is not being used for

forecasting but for explanation we can take it to suggest the

cruciality of birth rates vis-a vis mortality in population

change. 26

Between 1876 and 1878 Madras experienced a major famine al­

though the intensity of its impact varied geographically. 27

Malabar, which was classed as a 'non-famine district' suffered

during these years not so much due to pluviometric decreases or

crop failures but due to the changed market conditions in the

Presidency. In normal years when a crop failed, prices would rise

25.Range: 1874 to 1930 Dependent variable : R.N.!. n=28 Variable Coefficient t-Statistic

MACBR3 0.048 1.1oo* MACDR3 -0.008 -0.024 CONSTANT. -0.749 -0.757 R2= 0.11346 Significant at to.1o

26. See A.Koutsoyannis, Theory of econometrics, London, 1985, p.97 for a note on the importance of statistical tests of significance.

27. Innes, op.cit.

175

and rice would come in from Bengal and Burma. But with a famine

in the rest of the Presidency, grain was available for import to

this chronically rice deficit district only at famine prices. The

market it may be said thus conducted the subsistence crisis in

the other parts of the Presidency to Malabar, though in the

course of transmission much of the deadly intensity of the famine

was fortunately lost. In Malabar the most important cause of

death was 'fevers'. It was during the wet, unhealthy monsoon

months which were also a period of reduced agricultural

employment and high food prices that fever mortality was at its

peak.

Lack of continuous vital rates between 1882 and 1889 prevent

a description of the demographic trends in these years. The

available Crude Death Rate of 1885 approaches the earlier 'famine

rate' of mortality. 28 The official year 1890-91 again saw a

scarcity situation. There was a failure of the coffee crop in

Wynad and the makaram rice crop in the plains, a repetition of

what happened in 1876. 29 In response to a shortfall in supply,

prices rose and in 1892 the Crude Death Rate climbed to 18.

28. The unrevised C.D.R. for 1885 was 16 while those corrected for intercensal population increase and for death undercoverage were 21.18 and 32.44 respectively.

29. Innes op. cit., p.273.

176

Another noticeable increase in mortality in 1900 appears to be

the result of a partial scarcity in 1899 coupled with fevers and

cholera. 30 The first decade of this century saw a sharp hike in

mortality rates with the death rate being higher in five out of

ten years in Malabar compared to the Presidency. The increases

deaths in 1903 and 1907 were caused by cholera. 31 In the first

decade of this century the death rate exhibits a statistically

insignificant trend against time. The great divide in India's

population history is dated at 1921 with the rate of natural

increase registering a secular increase after this date because

of a lowered death rate. If the 1918 influenza epidemic and the

associated sharp rise in excess deaths are ignored, one sees a

diverging trend between the birth and death rate from 1912. In

in

Malabar even deadlier than the influenza epidemic of 1918 was the

severe cholera and dysentery which hit the district the following

year. 32

30. RSCM, 1897, p.35.

31. RSCM, 1903,1907.

32. " ... the fever epidemic died down in the early months of 1919, but reappeared about the middle of the next year when, however its ravages were neither so widespread or fatal as in the previous year.In spite of high prices which still continued everywhere there was a slight recovery in 1919 except in the West Coast division where a severe visitation of cholera and dysentery

177

Violent fluctuations in the death rate are indicative of an

unstable demographic regime vulnerable to external shocks in the

forms of epidemics, famines or famine like situations. The

coefficient of variation which measures the fluctuations in the

Crude Death Rate series is given below

CDR Coefficient of Variation(C.V%)

Years 1872-80 1881-90 1891-00

CDR 33.0

34.6

Years CDR 1901-10 35.5

29.4 1911-20 1921-30 14.5

Source: Based on RSCM, Innes op.cit. and Madras Public Health Annual Report. (c.v= S.D/Mean*100)

36.9

During periods of excess mortality, working adults and the

old rather than children bore the brunt of the hikes in

mortality. In fact child mortality actually declined during

crises years because of reduced births. This is borne out by the

following table on age specific mortality in crisis and non­

crisis years. This appears to have dampened the tendency of the

population to rise steeply after crisis years. The lower child

mortality observed during famines and epidemics is largely

[cont.]

sent the death-rate up even higher than it had been in 1918." Census, 1921, p.12.

178

explained by the great drop in births during such times.

Table 5.4 Age Pattern of Crisis and Non-crisis Mortality

1919 Crisis Year

CBR Age Group

0-4 5-14

15-49 50+ Total

10333

5382 10243

124928

33.0 Deaths

31.2 2748 36.1 22.8

100.0

Source: RSCM, 1919, 1924.

1924 Non-crisis Year

39.0 Percentage DeathsPercentage

7125 9.9 995

2416 7257

77685

42.4 8.6

25.4 23.5

100.0

Mortality, with its associated hardships seems to have pushed

down fertility. Years of extreme mortality with the concomitant

increase in disease and dearth could also tend to lead to the

postponement of new marriages, physical separation of husband and

wife ane sterility due to malnutrition. Replacement of a dead

neonate may not be possible immediately because of biological

factors such as post-partum amenorrhea, secondary sterility and

so on. These factors thus tend to increase the gap between a rise

in deaths and a subsequent increase in births.

Age Composition:

179

Table 5.5 Summary Age-sex composition

Age 1891 1901 1911 M F M F M F

0-14 40.1 38.0 40.4 37.9 39.4 37.0 15-44 46.5 47.7 46.0 47.6 47.0 48.4 45+ 13.4 14.3 13.6 14.4 13.6 14.6

Age 1921 1931 M F M F Average

0-14 38.8 36.2 33.9 37.7 37.9 15-44 46.5 48.9 54:0 46.7 47.9 45+ 14.7 14.9 12.2 15.6 14.1

Source: Computed from Census (various issues) .

The age distribution of the Malabar population changed very

little between 1891 and 1931. The population was not very young

when compared to many developing countries, It is known that the

age composition of closed population is determined largely by

mortality and more importantly by fertility. The relatively small

percentage of the youngest age class is a preliminary pointer to

moderate fertility levels. The proportion of this age group also

exhibits a long run decline from 1891 to 1931.

Fertility:

The registration of births suffered even greater neglect than

deaths at the hands of the enumerators. Birth registration

started later than death registration in 1871. The Malabar birth

rate has been corrected here for (i) underestimation of the

180

denominator i.e. total population and (ii) for under coverage.

The crude birth rates published in the RSCM do not adjust for

changes in population between two censuses. This leads to an

artificial rise in the crude rates which have a tendency to

increase progressively between the beginning and end of a census

decade. To adjust for this bias the crude rates have been

calculated on the basis of the estimated population. The number

of deaths have been scaled up by a correction factor for under

registration. The births were then increased using the revised

death statistics. The crude birth rate though a direct measure of

population change caused by fertility is a very rough index with

a number of shortcomings. In calculating the Crude Birth Rate

every enumerated birth in a year is taken as an event and is

added to the total population. This leads to a simultaneous

increase in both the numerator and the denominator, and therefore

tends to conceal changes in fertility. Further, the Crude Birth

Rate uses the entire population as the denominator whereas this

should ideally be the population of women in the reproductive age

groups. In spite of these limitations the Crude Birth Rate has

been used here largely because of the unavailability of better

fertility data annually.

The decennial averages of the corrected and uncorrected CBR

computed from registration data were as follows:

181

Years CBRRAW CBR Revised

1881-90 21.80 33.42 1891-00 30.46 33.38 1801-10 30.53 42.25 1911-20 33.11 46.03 1921-30 37.86 46.96

Source: Computed from RSCM and Census. CBRRAW, CBRRevised denote figures, corrected for change in

denominator and birth rate revised by "Brass Growth Balance method respectively.

These figures suggest moderate fertility. Fertility levels

can also be estimated from the age-sex and nuptiality

distribution given in the Census. Limitations of data allow us

only to estimate indirect measures such as the child woman ratio

(hereafter CWR) directly from the Census figures. The CWR trend

largely corresponds with the Census age distribution of the

proportion of population below age five. The CWR figures and its

comparison with the "rest of India" suggest a much lower level of

fertility, however crude it may be, for Malabar. 33 Unfortunately,

neither the census nor the RSCM provide any data on age specific

fertility which can help in explaining this fertility

differential. However, such a survey was conducted in

33. The CWR figures for 1891, 1901, 1911, 1921, 1931 and 1951 for Malabar are 590, 594, 633 (based on women aged 15-40),536, 622 and 545 respectively. The 1931 figure given for 'Rest of India' by Kingsley Davis is 770. See Davis op.cit., p.71.

182

neighbouring Travancore in 1931 and 1941. Figures 3 shows the age

specific fertility curve between 1931 and 1951. 34

Section IV Explaining Moderate Fertility

The peak in the curve for ages 20-24 to 30 -34 years exhibits

a loss in· convexity during this period suggesting some mechanism

of fertility reduction at work. Available information on the

district's past demographic practices does not suggest the use of

any kind of contraception. Then how does one explain the moderate

fertility?

Nuptiality: A comparison of the CWR for the entire

population and marital CWR yielded interesting clues to

fertility controlling mechanisms. As mentioned earlier the

Malabar CWR was much lower than the all India average. However,

the marital CWR ratios trend much closer to the all India

average. The average difference between the marital and total

CWRs comes to 42 percent between 1891 and 1931. 35 This

unambiguously points to nuptiality as the major proximate I

determinant of Malabar's moderate fertility. With roughly 15 per

34. Data taken from Census of India, Monograph Series, No.7, ~ ~, p.Sl. The 1951 figures are for Travancore-Cochin.

35. Census of India, Madras, 1891 and 1931.

183

cent of the women in the reproductive age groups being returned

as never married, this meant a significant reduction in the

population exposed to the risk of conception. A comparison with

all India estimates reveals that even within the married

population Malabar's fertility was lower than the all-India

average. The percentage of married females in the 15 to 44 age

group continues to be much less in Kerala than for the country as

a whole.36 Madras had the highest proportion of single women

amongst all the provinces in the country, and within Madras

Presidency, Malabar and the West Madras Division registered

the highest figures.3 7

36. The percentage of married females in the 15 to 44 age group in India and Kerala in 1981 was 80.48 and 60.65 respectively. Census of Indias 1981, Part II, Delhi, 1984, p.36. This data is based on a 5 percent sample.

37. According to the 1891 Census report, 'Among females the highest proportion of wives is found in Vizagapatam and the lowest in Malabar. Of widowers, the lowest proportion is 192 in 10,000 males which is the ratio in Malabar.' Census of India, 1891, vol. 13, p.130.

In 1911 the unmarried percentages of men and women of all ages for India and Madras were 40, 36.4, 53.3 and 37.3, respectively. Census of India, 1911, Madras Presidency, p.233.

'The percentage of unmarried persons is higher, both among rna: and females in the West Madras division which confirms the fact that people marry at a later age in that area, particularly in Malabar than in other parts of the State.' Census of India, 1951,

·Madras Presidency, vol.3, Part I, p.180.

184

Marital fertility in Malabar though closer to all India

levels was still lower than the latter. (See Graph-4.2) This may

possibly be related to the relatively higher mean age at first

marriage, suggested by the age wise nuptiality data. This would,

~eteris paribus, not merely postpone higher reproduction rate but

slower the rate of population growth by increasing the length of

a generation. 38 These findings support the

view that institutional factors rather than contraception was

the main mechanism for fertility control in India. 39 In Malabar,

however restrictions on marriage rather than prohibitions on

widow remarriage was the prime check on fertility.

Unfortunately, nuptiality data is not available annually.

This compels us to depend solely on Census point estimates.

Absence of annual nuptiality figures prevents studying it in

association with short term fluctuations in the economy~ such as

prices and output. However, the fact that such a large proportion

of unmarried or never married women was a structural feature of

38. See A.J. Coale and C.T. Tye, 'The significance of Age­Patterns of Fertility in High Fertility Populations', Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 39, 4, 1961, pp. 6313-646.

39. Leela Visaria and Pravin Visaria, "Population" in Dharma Kumar, ed., Cambridge Economic History of India, val. 2, Delhi, 1984, p.511.

185

Malabar,s nuptiality pattern prompts one to look to explanations

of long duration. Malabar, fits in well with the south Indian

demographic regime characterized by lower child and infant

mortality, low fertility and low sex ratios. The smallness of the

above indicators have led demographers to characterize it as 'the

most "southern" of states in the south.' 40 Here we argue that

nuptial practices constituted the primary proximate determinant

of relatively lower fertility in this area.

Differences in demographic behaviour have been sought to be

explained by structuralist analysis of kinship systems, agrarian

ecology and status of women. 41 Arguments based on kinship

differences are limited by the inability to explain demographic

changes over time. Similarly the agrarian ecology thesis is

flawed by its insensitivity to the.cultural variations and class

and community differences within economically defined culture

zones. This brings us to explanations based on differences in the

40. Tim Dyson and Mick Moore, 'On Kinship Structure, Female Autonomy, and Demographic Behavior in India,, Pqpulation Studies, 9, 1, 1983, p.42.

41. See Iravati Karve, Kinship Organization in India, Deccan College Monograph Series, Madras, 1953; L. Dumont and D.Pocock, "Kinship", Contributions to Indian Sociology, 1957; M.P. Moore, 'Cross-Cultural surveys of peasant family structures: Some comments", American Anthropologist, 75, no.3, 1975 and Tim Dyson and Mick Moore, op. cit.

186

contributions to natal home to be more important. 42

These explanations have been used by demographers to explain

varying levels of fertility and the status of women. One problem

with these explanations is their refusal to historicize, this

becomes all the more acute because the explicand is historical

change. For instance, kinship patterns may remain nominally

unchanged for a long time, but material changes often affect

their de facto working which can significantly affect fertility

behaviour. The need is to abandon attempts at mere empirical

replication of narrowly focussed functional studies and emphasise

on the changing institutional reality of different historical

settings.

To understand the level of colonial fertility in Malabar, we

will first isolate the probable determinants and then study how

it changed over a period of about half a century. In demographic

terms we have argued that the most crucial proximate determinant

of fertility, for which data is available, was nuptiality.

Marriage practices are usually influenced by a host of

nondemographic factors such as economic considerations,

42. For a similar view see Leela Visaria, nRegional Variations in Female Autonomy and Fertility and Contraception in India", Gujarat Institute of Development Research, Working Paper Series, No.so.

187

terms we have argued that the most crucial proximate determinant

of fertility, for which data is available, was nuptiality.

Marriage practices are usually influenced by a host of

nondemographic factors such as economic considerations,

adaptations to ecology, the demands of the dominant production

system and culturally defined practices.

Alice Clarke in an article on north central Gujarat, has

suggested the use of infanticide and the control of reproduction

by certain communities to facilitate upward social and economic

mobility. Developing Clark's suggestion further, Sumit Guha

argues that 'significant parts of India were characterized by a

demographic regime of (unwitting?) fertility control by the

upwardly mobile~ while poverty and economic stress limited the

numbers of the lower classes, resulting in slow overall

growth.' 43 Guha argues against the classification of areas of

fertility control via marriage by ecozone, in favour of crediting

'the socio-political systems that generated status ranking and

hypergamous marriages with an independent efficacy of its own.' 44

43. Sumit Guha, 'The Population History of South Asia from the Seventeenth to the Twentoieth Centuries: An Exploration/, Conference on Asian Population History, Taipei, January 1996, p.17.

44. ibid.

188

While Guha's hypothesis is helpful in theorizing on pre­

transitional fertility control mechanisms, his contention that

control of fertility through marriage was absent in the

agriculturally secure west coast is wrong. Malabar with its well

known marriage codes is a case in point. Further, as this region

was always beyond the pale of Mughal control it would be

difficult to argue that Malabar~s marriage reducing arrangements

were in any way influenced by the practices of the expanding

Mughal empire.

It is a well known fact that the proportion of never married

was the highest among Christians and the lowest among the

Muslims. But Indian Christians did not form a significant part of

Malabar's population. This leaves us with the Hindus who formed

about 70 percent of Malabar's population. 45 The Hindus, in

Malabar included a wide range of sharply demarcated caste groups

that varied significantly both in terms of cultural practices and

class. At the very top of the Kerala caste hierarchy stood

Nambudiri Brahmans. The high caste patrilineal and patrilocal

Brahmin Nambudiris were traditionally wealthy noncultivating

landlords. The Nambudiris had exclusivist marriage rules which

45. Hindus# Muslims, Christians and Others formed 70.58, 27.58, 1.83 and 0.16 percent of the total population in 1881. Logan, Malabak, vol.l, Madras, 1951, p.178.

189

permitted only the eldest son in a Nambudiri family to marry a

Nambudiri woman. Only children born of such couples were

recognized as Nambudiris. Children born of sambandbarns

between Nambudiri males and Nayar women were not included in

the Nambudiri caste. This greatly increased the proportion of

unmarried Nambudiri women or antarjanams, who were subjected to

celibacy for life.

While the Nambudiris, ranked first in the normative caste

hierarchy and as landlords in south Malabar, the matrilineal,

matrilocal Naira formed the politically most vocal section of the

Hindu population. The Naira, traditionally warriors and rulers in

precolonial Malabar, were the first to enter the colonial

bureaucracy and imbibe Western education. The traditional Nair

matrilineal household was called the tharavad. This property was

impartible, and inheritance was down the female line.

However, during our period the tharavad was managed by the

eldest male member of the family, resulted in a number of

tensions in this system. Nair girls were, ritually married to a

Brahmin before they attained puberty. After this they were free

to enter into sexual relations with one or more Brahmin or Nair

males. These relations could also be terminated with ease. Thus

marriage relations did not mean a severance of relations with

natal home and kin. A study of matrilineal Ashanti women, who

190

strongly resembled the matrilineal Nayars of Kerala, found the

system to be consistent with powerful sanctions for high

fertility. 46 However, sanction for terminating such unions and

female control over sexuality appear to have countered the logic

of high fertility built into the Nayar sexual and nuptial·code.

Further, in North Malabar the Nayars were largely monogamous. The

other two major caste groups were those of Tiyas and Cherumans.

The self-cultivating Tiyas, who were traditionally coconut

growers and toddy tappers, followed the matrilineal system in

North Malabar and the patrilineal system in south Malabar. The

untouchable Cherumans were agrestic serfs or landless labourers.

This numerically large caste was patrilineal. A common feature of

all the non-

Brahmin castes was the ease with which marriages and sexual

unions could be terminated.

This classification by caste, however, gives a false picture

of homogeneous castes. The Nayars or the Tiyas, for example, were

characterized by significant internal stratification in terms of

occupation and class.

_ The high proportion of unmarried women can be directly linked

46. See Frank Lorimer, Culture and Human Fertility, New York, 1979. p. 73.

191

only to Narnbudiri marriage restrictions. The Nambudiris, however,

formed less than three percent of the population and could not

influence the nuptiality rates for the entire population of the

district. The Nayars on the other hand, could ritually never be

widowed. The high proportion of unmarried Nayars in the

reproductive age groups, going up to more than 80% and more than

20% for males and females respectively in the 17-23 age group (in

1931) appears fantastically high. It may be argued that the

census enumerators wrongly returned Nayars women who had

sampandham as unmarried. This, however, does not appear

correct because when we move to older age categories such as 24-

44 years, for instance, the proportion of unmarried reduces to

roughly 20 and ten percent for males and females. The other

reason why Census ~uptiality data should not be rejected is that

the high proportions of never married or unmarried were also

registered for non-Nayar castes such the Tiyas and Cherumans, who

did not follow practices such as sarnbandham which the colonial

mind might have refused to accept as marriage.

A look at the age-wise nuptial status reveals a high age of

first marriage across castes. The Nayars had the highest age of

first marriage, followed by the Nambudiris, Tiyas and Cherumans.

The fairly late age of marriage among the servile Cherumans who

came lowest in the ritual and economic hierarchy does not suggest

192

that education was a major factor in postponing marriages. The

increasing age of first marriage suggested by the nuptiality data

seems to be the result of two distinct set of factors. First,

neither of the two dominant castes of the area- the Nambudiris

and the Nayars, attached great value to a early effective

marriage. The practice of compulsory celibacy for ntoSt of the

Nambudiri women and the ephemeral nature of Nayar GambePdham,

seem to have legitimized non-marriage and the idea of easy

dissolution of marriages. Though the lower castes did not follow

the Nayar or Nambudiri marriage rules and. practices, they also

emphasised easy termination of marriages. Significant changes

came about in the marriage practices of the Nayars. Sambandhams

were gradually frowned upon by the educated Nayar elite, who saw

it as mechanism and vestige of Nambudiri exploitation. From the

late nineteenth century, with an increasing number of Nayar males

entering the colonial bureaucracy, there was a small shift away

from the matrilocal residence pattern towards neolocal and

virilocal households. Though this did not immediately become a

widespread phenomenon, it increasingly came to be looked upon as

the most desirable form of family and household. The new ideal

Nayar family in the late 19th century, depicted in Ravi Varmas's

1.93

portraits was the small nuclear househo~d. 47 Census figures for

the entire population, however, do not indicate any dramatic

decline in household size. In fact, a sharp increase can be seen

in 1951. This has been explained in terms of an increase in the

birth rate and a decrease in mortality in Malabar. Along with

this emigration decreased and there was a return of emigrants on

a large scale from Burma, Ceylon and Malaya. 48

Table 5.6 Change in Household Size

Year Persons per house

Madras West Madras Division 1891 5.3 5.7 1901 5.3 5.7 1911 5.3 5.6 1921 5.1 5.4 1931 5.1 5.6 1941 5.1 5.6 1951 5.3 6.1a

Sources: Census of India, 1931, Madras, v.14, Part I, p.51; Census of India, 1941, v.2, Madras, p.5.

a Refers to rural population, Census of India, 1951, Madras, v.3, Part I, p.15.

Notwithstanding this increase, a slightly decreasing trend

is seen from 1891 to 1941. Given a rising population this

suggests a trend towards the setting up of more households.

47. G.Arunima, 'Matriliny and its discontents', India International Centre Qu9rterly, Summer/Monsoon 1995, p.162.

48. Census of India, 1951, Madras, v.3, Part I, p.15.

194

Ethnographic studies also support the census information.

Kathleen Gough's study of changing household structure in a

village in central Kerala between 1948-49 and 1964 sugg.ests a

decrease in complexity but only a slight decrease in size. Gough

found that the average size of households decreased from 6.8

members in 1949 to 6.4 members in 1964. 49 She also found greater

reliance on individual occupations to be associated with the

tendency to live in nuclear households or in simpler kinds of

joint households.so

The increase in the partitioning of Nayar taravads and the

move away from agriculture towards the service sector appears to

have been responsible for this phenomenon. It must be recognized

that the proportion of the population married, and the effective

age of first marriage are not merely cultural artefacts but are

closely connected with changing material conditions.

This brings us to another factor which could have stimulated

the postponement of marriage- the move away from agriculture

towards the service sector. The agrarian population of Malabar

constituted roughly sixty percent of the total population till

49. Kathleen Gough, "Changing households in Kerala" in Dhirendra Narain, ed., Explorations in the family and other essays, Bombay, 1965, p.237.

50. ibid., p.264.

195

the 1930s. By 1951 this declined to about fifty one percent.

Interestingly, the decline in agricultural occupations was offset

not by an increase in trade, industry or commerce but in the

residual census category of 'Others' . This points to a marked

increase in the service sector, an area which has not received

any scholarly attention. This shift in the district's

occupational structure acted as a catalyst in the break-up of the

Nayar taravad and the demand for the abolition of matriliny. With

the decline of landlord run large wet paddy cultivation, there

was a trend towards the greater use of casual wage labour in

place of tied labour.

Fertility measures exhibit some correspondence with caste and

occupational classes. Once again only CWR figures are available.

Upper caste fertility is seen to be slightly lower than for lower

castes.

Table 5.7 Caste-wise C.W.R 1891

Nambudiri Cheruman Tiyan Parayan

526 618 626 659

Source Census, 1891, 1921.

1921

569 590 609 639

In 1921 once again we find the same trend. The proportion of

196

children under 14 to married women between ages 14 and 43

were 191, 214 and 195 respectively for Malayali Brahmins, Nayars

and Paraiyans. 51 The 1951 census gives occupation-wise and not

caste wise fertility data. However, the fertility differentials

noticed in the earlier caste based figures appear to persist.

Cultivators (both tenants and landlords) had a CWR of 588 while

cultivating labourers and rent receivers returned a CWR of 508

and 468 respectively.52 Since the CWR uses the number of children

aged 0 to 5 years as the numerator, it has a tendency to

understate actual fertility among the lower castes because infant

and child mortality would be higher among the poorer

castes/classes compared to the Brahmins and the Nayars. If births

were taken as the numerator we could expect larger differentials

in fertility. These estimates suggest a weakly correlated

relationship between fertility on the one hand and occupation and

property inheritance, on the other.

Fertility indices also showed some correlation with market

fluctuations. The detrended CBR exhibited a statistically

significant causal connection with prices with a two year lag

51. Census of India, Madras, 1931, v.l, p. 122.

52. Census of.India, Madras, 1951.

197

between 1874 and 1930.53 Studies of preindustrial England and

imperial China have showed how nuptiality responded strongly to

short term economic fluctuations. 54 In the absence of annual

nuptiality data we can only speculate that this fertility

reduction during economically hard times was effected through

postponement of marriages. Conscious fertility control within

marriages is not indicated by the data examined. Fertility

exhibited some congruence with landholding patterns, caste and

inheritance rules.

Section v Morta1ity-Economy Relationship

Describing the movements in the death rate in Madras the RSCM

and the Census reports repeatedly emphasized a close correlation

between mortality and prices. The annual reports of the Sanitary

Commissioner regularly published the monthly price of foodgrains

and printed graphs of monthly movements in the CDR and the price

53. Least Squares Regression Residual CBR = Residual Price of Rice(-2) X-0.0329*+ Constant X - 0.0329 * significant at t0.10 n=44

54. See Wrigley and Schofield, The population history of England, 1541-1871, Cambridge, 1981; James Lee, 'The historical demography of late imperial China: recent research result and implications', mimeo, 1992.

198

-of foodgrains.ss Given Malabar's high level of commercialization

of agriculture, its status as a net rice importer and the very

high proportion of agricultural labourers to the total agrarian

population, the reported connection between price and mortality

seems plausible. However, the lagless direct association between

mortality hikes and rice prices implied by the RSCM appears to be

a case of exaggeration.

In terms of the sectoral movement, population engaged in

agricultural occupations increased by about 33 per cent while

that in non-agricultural occupations increased by 96.5 per cent

between 19~1 and 1951. Interestingly, the decline in agricultural

population is offset not by an increase in those in trade,

connnerce or industry, but by residual census class of "Others"

{see Table 4.8b below). This points to a spectacular increase in

the service sector. The increase in non-agricultural occupations

55. "There is a very close connection between prices of food and mortality of a population, and the connection is especially apparent in a country like India, where at best of times, from twenty to thirty percent of the people have difficulty in finding sufficient food." RSCM, 1877, p.10; see also RSCM, 1893.

199

was largely caused by a growth in 'Other ' occupations. 56 What

complicates the situation is that various occupational groups

constituting the population were differentially involved in the

market. Agricultural labour, especially "tied labour" was paid

fixed paddy wages throughout our period. Although their wages

were barely enough even for mere survival, this would imply that

this section of the population was fairly well insulated from and

immune to fluctuations in food prices. The increase in the

category of 'cultivating landlords' is compensated somewhat by

the slight increase in the number and proportion of agricultural

labourers, the spectacular rise in the category 'Others' and a

marked fall in the proportion and number of rent-receivers. All

these categories were dependent on the market for food, but only

varyingly contributing to the price-mortality nexus.

Agricultural labourers and cultivating tenants, who increased as

a proportion of the total population, were the numerically

do~inant occupational group. Non-cultivating landlords and

56. Krishnamurthy rightly observes Kerala's remarkably low dependenGe on agricultural. Neither his figures on the distribution of male working force in India between 1911 and 1951 for Malabar and Cochin nor our occupational figures of the whole population suggest any increase in 'trade and commerce' despite a marked increase in the value of aggregate trade. See J. Krishnamurthy, CEHI, Table 6.6 and pp.543-44.

200

tenants decreased in proportion to the aggregate, while

cultivating landlords increased. (See Tables 4.Ba and b)

Table 4.8a Occupational Distribution

1871 1881 1891 1901** 1911 1921 CUlt. 79060 98883 96220 108917 Landlords (2.99) (3.54) {3.19) (3.51} Non-cult 78365 80323 74549 22784 Llords {2.97) (2.88) (2.47) (0.74} Cult. 147673* 639899 686579 821462 899050 tenants {24.22) {24.61) (27.24) (29.01) Non-cult. 44553 15121 24923 22784 tenants {1.69) (0.54) (0.83) (0.74) Agricult.311242 325086 624631# 824965 762591 775208 lab. (13.76) (13.74) (23.64) (29.57) (25.29) (25.02) Total Pop. 2261250 2365035 2641928 2790281 3015119 3098871

Source: Imperial Census of India. Madras * Madras Census, Talukwar Statements-Malabar District, Final Census Table XII-C, 1881- Cultivating and non-cultivating tenants are not shown separately. ** 1901 figures has a separate heading "dependents". For the sake of comparability the males, females and dependents have been aggregated. # Total of sub-order 11. Includes farm servants, field labourers and crop watchers. Percentage of total population given in brackets.

Table 4.8b Occupational Distribution, 1911 and 1951

1 A 2 B 3 ----~--------------------------------------------~---Ag~icultural Occypations Cultivating Landowners 90.20 4.95 Tenants 821.50 45.06 Agricultural Labourers 762.00 41.79 Rent Receivers 99.50 5.46 Cultivators of

307.90 12.67 1~6.19 953.70 39.26 -12.87

1067.90 43.96 5.18 99.80 4.11 -24.72

201

special products 50.00 2.74 Total I ~823.20 100.00 2429.30 100.00 0.00

Nqn-Agricultural Occupations Non­Agricultural Commodity Production Commerce and Transport Others Total II

Total of I and II

566.60

367.40 251.30

1185.30

23.90

15.50 10.60 50.00

2370.6 100.00

771.60

561.10 996.20

2328.90

16.57

12.05 21.39 50.00

4657.8 100.00

-30.69

-22.27 1.01.76

96.50

0.00

Source: Based on population figures in Varghese, qp. c~t., p.126 Note: The 1951 population figures include "dependents"

1: Population in 1911 · A: Percentage of suborder total in 1911 2: Population in 1951 B: Percentage of suborder total in 1951 3: Percentage Change between A and B

The technological level of Malabar's agriculture was low compared to other ecologically similar districts of Madras. This is evident from the following uncorrected Standard Yield statistics for 1946-47:

Malabar Cauvery Delta-Tanjore Godavari-Krishna Delta

1,400 lb. per acre 1,750 lb. per acre 1,900 lb. per acre

The per capita output of paddy decreased by 13.3 per cent

between 1904-5 and 1920-21 (continuous output figures were not

available for earlier years). While the per acre productivity

decreased by 4.3 per cent between 1904-5 to 1920-21. population

increased by 11.1 per cent, pushing up the rice deficit. Malabar

became incr~asingly more dependent on the market for the

202

fulfillment of its food requirements.

Table 4.9

Year

1891 1901 1911 1921 1941 1951

Pgpulation and Food Qutput

Aggregate Population

2,641,928 2,790,281 3,015,119 3,098,871 3,9294,25 4,758,342

Estimated paddy output in tons

per annum

355,324 380,907 442,509 537,100 338,550 306,000

Per capita paddy output

(lb.)

301.27 305.79 328.75 388.24 192.99 144.05

Source: Based on Madras Census, RSCM and SAMP

According to the R.S.C.M of 1877, "in Malabar wages are paid

in kind ... The great majority of the agricultural labourers are

permanently entertained by the landowners, and they are paid 1-

1/5 measures a day {nearly 5 lbs.) whether they work or not." 57

Price hikes and food scarcities-are generally most cruel to.

that class of population which is just above the subsistence

level. In Malabar this section of the population was the class of

agricultural labourers who ranked lowest in both the normative

and economic hierarchies. If this most vulnerable class of people

were immune to price changes, then one should not find any marked

57. RSCM, 1877

203

correlation between prices and mortality.

However this does not seem to have been true as there was a

marked correlation between rice prices and mortality. For such an

association between these two variables, one has to have a

population which is very dependent on the market and thus,

extremely sensitive to price fluctuations. For such a population

one or more of the following conditions had to be true:

(i) The fixed component of the labourer's wages

was not adequate to meet his minimum food

needs.

(ii) A significant part of his wages was paid in

(iii)

some medium which was responsible to price

changes.

The prevalence of large scale distress sale

and subsequent dependence on the market for

food requirement by agricultural labourers

and other kinds of peasants.

That a part of the labourer's income was fixed proportion of

the harvest is suggested by a contemporary report. 58 If this was

so, then a bad harvest would simultaneously lower the labourer's

58. "The prosperity of the farm labourers was dependent on the harvest" R.S.C.M, ~877, Appendix I, p.vi.

204

share and push up the prices. Buchanan, in the early nineteenth

century observed that the fixed component of kind wages was not

sufficient even for the bare subsistence of the agricultural

labourer.

Further, it must be kept in ~ind that fixed paddy wages were

largely restricted to the tied agrestic labourers who were

virtually serfs, and did not apply to free labour. With the turn

of the century there was a progressive shift to money wages.

We have references from the early 20th century, that even

labourers paid in paddy, often sold their earnings in the market

to procure non-food requirements. When this was done the

shopkeepers normally paid them a price lower than the market

price, while their purchases were made at prevailing market

prices. 59 Dharma Kumar has argued that even the kind wages of

agrestic labour in Malabar was not fixed. In the light of our

findings, this seems to be plausible. For the years 1914 to 1916,

we have some interesting oral evidence, which reveals a variety

of modes of payment. According to the interviewee, a landlord, in

those days the labourers did only uchha pani, that is work from

morning to noon, for which they received only cash or coolie

59. See V.Krishna Aiyar, "Guruvayur," in Slater, ed., Some South Indian Villages, O.U.P, London, 1918, p.154

205

without food. For all kinds of non-agricultural work the coolie

was 2 annas a day, while for harvesting, it was given at the rate

of one measure for every eight measures that the landlord got. 60

These details were more or less corroborated by another landlord

from the same place.61

The above mentioned observations suggest that there was a

multiplicity of modes of remuneration and the real income of the

agricultural labour was directly related to agricultural output

and inversely related to price increases. When wages were paid in

money, price increases immediately lowered the real wages. on the

other hand when payment was made in kind, often as a proportion

of the output, price increases would adversely affect the agri­

cultural worker's or share cropper's income only if the output

was inversely related to price. A decrease in the output in such

a situation would lower the absolute amount of paddy that the

labourer received or in other words result in a fall in his

wages. It would also simultaneously enhance the cost of his non­

paddy requirements (the prices of which would go up with the rise

in rice prices) .

60. Interview with Meethile Veetil Nanu Narnbiar, Landlord, aged 84 in Sep., 1985 r/o Nettur Amsom, Kottayam Taluk.

61. Interview with Edathatta Meenakshi Amma, Land Lady, aged 80 years in Sep., 1985, r/o Nettur Amsom, erstwhile Kottayam Taluk.

206

In view of the above modes of wage payment price increases

could and did lower the real wages of agricultural labourers.

Malabar's agrarian economy was characterized by a high and

virtually unchanging level of inequality in the distribution of

land holdings. Gini Coefficients (G) with number of pattas in

each revenue class and revenue assessment on each class as

variables are as follows:

Table 4.10 Ineguality in Land Revenue Incidence Year Gini Coefficient

1881-82 1891-92 1910-11 1920-21 1930-31

. 0.666 0.664 0.764 0.747 0.749

Source: Computed from SAMP figures.

Malabar had more than 75 per cent of the cultivators classed

in the Rs.0-10 revenue paying category, which was the lowest 1

throughout our period.

Given the highly skewed nature of land distribution, a mass

of dwarf holders and widespread money lending, one can safely

assume the existence of distress sale, and consequently the

subsistence of the small farmers were linked to price

fluctuation.

Price increases were the cumulative result of lowered local

output and shortfalls or delay in rice imports. In addition to

207

certain years being marked by high prices, price hikes occurred

annually, in the rainy months following the harvest of the fist

crop. It is in such a scenario that mortality and prices exhibit

a close correlation throughout our period.

Table 4.11 : Correlation Coefficients of Q.D.R and Price of Rice. Second Sort {1st Differences>

Year

1872-79 1890-99 1900-10 1910-20

r

0.418* 0.844* 0.590* 0.780

Source: Based on R.S.C.M and SAMP * denotes r is significant at t O.OOS

Working with the general hypothesis that demographic

movements were related significantly to the conditions of

production it would be pertinent to check whether the mortality

-price nexus varied between talyks with dissimilar production

conditions. Kottayam, Wynad, Palghat and Ponnani were selected to

check for variations in the causal significance of prices dn

mortality. The values of the explanatory variables were higher in

the 1893 to 1902 period when compared with the 1916 to 1930

period. Mortality in taluks which were engaged in the production

of garden crops and heavily dependent on imported rice such as

the northern talu~s exhibited a much greater sensitivity to price

changes.

208

Table 4.12 Least Squares regression results of prices on total deaths for selected talyks

Time Taluk C(l) C{2) Const. t-Statistic for C{l) C(2}

----------------·-----------------------------------------1893-Kottayam 9.9978 4.9692 -28.210 2.012** 0.335

Kurumbr. 15.950 3.892 -57.506 2.580** 0.649 Wynad 5.5468 6. 0390 -18.113 1.251* 1.340

1902 Pal ghat 3.8167 4.9761 -13.428 0.176 1.011

1916 Kottayam 2.0915 0.4822 4.632 Kurumbr. -1.0483 1.785 16.228 1.315 -0.743 Wynad 0.1170 2.8172 19.432 0.045 0.828

1930 Palghat 2.5425 -2.4626 25.330 2.607** -2.4524**

Source: RSCM Gazetteer of Malabar, vol.II and SAMP. C(1), C(2) and C(3) denote the coefficients for the independent variables taluk price of rice, taluk price of rice(t-1) and Constant term respectively.** and * denote signif2cance of t at 5% and 10% levels.

In the months after the first harvest food stocks ran low

and the demand for agricultural labour was at its lowest. With no

work and little grain available for the agricultural labourers

and small farmers, June, July and early August were months of

extreme privation. It was during this period that the maximum

number of deaths occurred. The monsoons prevented fishing and

pushed up the cost of this supplementary food item also. Further,

it was during such times of subsistence crisis tllat fever, which

was the single largest killer disease in Malabar, struck most

viciously and cruelly. This yearly subsistence crisis enhanced

209

the fatal potential of fevers. This can be substantiated

statistically. Denoting the price of rice, CDR and fevers by 1, 2

and 3 respectively, we observe for the period 1900-1926 the

following correlation coefficients:

Table 4.13 Correlation Coefficients Rice Price, CDR and "Fevers"

Zero Order Correlation r 1 2 - 0.454 r 2 3 - 0.210

Partial Correlation r 2 3.1 - 0.248 r 2 1.3 - 0.505

0.206 0.044

0.062 0.255

The lower coefficient of the partial correlation when price

was held constant than when price changes were accounted

for,suggests that the price variable was an important determinant

in enhancing the intensity and killing capability of fevers.

The pattern of monthly distribution of births indicates that

the maximum number of births occurred in July. (See Table 4.14).

The large number of births in this lean month must put further

economic burdens on the poorer families. If July was the modal

month for births, then it appears that the maximum number of

conceptions took place in September. Although we know virtually

nothing about contraceptive practices in colonial Malabar, an

absence of effective contraceptive methods has been assumed~-

210

This deduction is supported by the fact that the month of Chingam

(mid-August to mid-September) was considered the most opportune

time for marriages. This was the month of Onam, the district's

harvest festival, when the monsoon eases and the peasant and

agricultural labourers look forward to the coming harvest and

times of plenty.

Table 4.14 Monthly Distribution of Births and Deaths in Malabar.

Month 1871 1880 1905-10 (average) Births Deaths Births Deaths Births Deaths

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

3036 2709 3142 3145 4226 3903 4060 3994 3918 3721 3353 3032

Source: RSCM

2604 2473 2350 2334 2269 2386 2870 2558 2213 2207 1988 2197

3129 3656 4170 3757 3766 4171 5112 4066 3550 3499 4142 3161

2609 2527 2545 2424 2681 2835 3495 3026 3026 N.A. 2652 2448

6204 5824 6000 5390 6233 7142 9201 9720 6530 5495 5867 6950

Thus it becomes clear that given the above described pattern

of income distribution, market conditions, extent of

commercialization, the population's occupational distribution,

climatic conditions and endemic diseases, mortality movements

were the cumulative result of a complex interaction between these

211

different processes. Mortality in colonial rural Malabar may be

termed as "output-price dependent mortality".In Malabar it

appears that while on the one hand mortality was the chief

determinant of population size, this was in turn dependent on

agricultural output-price changes. On the other hand population

change impacted upon some constitutive processes of the agrarian

structure, but not on others.

Section VI Popu1atian and Output

Scholars such as Clifford Geertz and Esther Boserup have argued

against the view that population increase depresses economic

development. In nineteenth century Java Geertz found that a rapid

rise in population was countered by increasingly complex

cooperative institutions. This prevented any decline in

agricultural productivity. 62 The data for Malabar does not

suggest any phenomenon similar to 'agricultural involution'. The

Malabar experience, however, however tends to support Boserup's

denial of an automatic inverse relation between population growth

and agricultural development.63 One finds a parallel upward trend

62. Clifford Geertz, Agricultural involution: the process of ecological change in Indonesia, Berkeley, 1968, pp.69-82.

63. See E. Boserup, op.cit. and Boserup, Population and technological change. a study of long term trends, Chicago, 1981.

212

in population and area under occupation but there appears to be

no association between the rate of increase in population and in

area occupied. Similarly, there is no association between

population increase and per acre productivity. 64

Table 4.15 Population Change and Extension of Cultivated Area

Year

1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921

Total Cumulative Total area Popula- %age rate in occupa-tion of change tion

2261250 2365033 2641928 2790281 3015119 3098871

in popula- in acres tion

+ 1.004 + 1.011. + 1.005 + 1.008 + 1.003

1147146 N.A

1953125 1309545 1392655 1442346

Source: Logan, gp.cit., Innes, op.cit.

Cumulative %age rate of change

- 0.009 + 1.035 + 0.006 + 0.004

S.A.M.P, A.S.I and Madras Cenaus (relevant years).

From the above discuss it clearly emerges that population change

in Malabar was the immediate product of differences between

fertility and mortality, with fertility being the more important

variable. Both fertility and mortality were closely related to

economic changes in the agrarian economy and its social

64. See chapter 3 for agricultural output and productivity trends. Population continues to increase even after the downturn in paddy output.

213

I

practices. While demographic change can be unambiguously related

to the internal working of the society, its independent impact on

various indices of agrarian change is difficult to establish in

the case of Malabar.

214