4G RAN market Aug 2010

4Ggear™ Quarterly Report: Infrastructure Trends

August 31, 2010

BROADBAND WIRELESS INTELLIGENCE www.maravedis-bwa.com © 2010 Maravedis Inc.

Adlane Fellah Chad Pralle Robert Syputa Moderator Senior Analyst Senior Advisor

Agenda

•  Industry overview of the WiMAX and LTE infrastructure market trends – Chad Pralle

• Vendor profile highlights – Robert Syputa

•  Industry rankings and trends forecast discussion • Questions and answers

© 2010 Maravedis Inc. BROADBAND WIRELESS INTELLIGENCE www.maravedis-bwa.com

History of 4G


iPhone Influence


Capacity Demands


Capacity and Infrastructure

© 2010 Maravedis Inc.

Base Stations


Alternative-Format Base Stations • Small form-factor base stations for non-traditional sites

• Micro-, pico-, and femto-cell • Carrier-managed base stations and backhaul

• Flexibility is the key aspect of these products

• One carrier claims that a 100% pico network would have a better ROI than a traditional macro network.

• One vendor claims a 25% deployment cost vs. macro-cell base stations.


Self-Optimizing Networks (SONs) •  PROBLEM: Additional base stations in the network means

more network elements to manage and maintain.

•  SOLUTION: SON reduces those costs by automating standard operations activities and maintains profitability

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Source: Maravedis

Overview of Infrastructure Trends

Infrastructure Shifts to Managed Networks and Services


Wireless Voice Dominated by

Link Infrastructure

Wireless Mobile Data Device and Cross-generation Network Support

Mobile Services Integration, Managed Networks

Source: Maravedis

BROADBAND WIRELESS INTELLIGENCE www.maravedis-bwa.com

Selected Trends: Tier-1 Vendors • Managed networks and collaborative service model

• Continued rapid growth of HSPA/HSPA+ & EVDO

• Multiple RAN LTE & 3G. WiMAX migration to LTE/TD-LTE •  700-800 MHz LTE spectrum

•  2.3-2.6 GHz on fast track

• Modular base station and rapid development of SONs

• A broadened services focus: • Extended network: cloud ICT, SaaS,

• Multimedia services

• M2M, smart grid, automotive


Selected Trends: WiMAX Vendors • Near term continued WiMAX growth

• Higher frequency bands more likely to continue with WiMAX

• WiMAX and/or LTE • Pure-play WiMAX vendors may have difficulty to support additional

R&D for LTE product lines

•  Tier-1 vendors risk losing interest in relatively smaller WiMAX market (vs. LTE)

• Few commitments yet to WiMAX 2 upgrades

• Several fixed operators plan to offer mobile


Vendors Search for Winning Strategy in Shifting Industry as Integrated Network Services Fuel Sales & Consolidation

•  Ericsson makes inroads in North America •  Verizon, AT&T, MetroPCS, and Sprint 3G

• Alcatel-Lucent •  Unified communications and ‘applications enablement’ strategy •  Likely to loose LTE share relative to CDMA to Chinese, Nokia, and

Ericsson •  Alvarion – seeks diversification as LTE Emerges

•  WiMAX market share dwindled to 20% •  Recently announced LTE by 1st half of 2011 in reaction to LTE shift

•  Aviat Networks (formerly Harris-Stratex) •  Repositioning as WiMAX-LTE integration supplier •  Traditional Back-haul sales under pressure


Report & Service Methodology • Broad data sources

•  Direct periodic and event driven supplier interviews •  Direct interviews with operators •  Participation in conventions, webinars, briefings •  Professional and standards organizations •  Patent and R&D discovery •  Financial data and reports

• Process of ranking •  Scope of supplier’s offerings •  Trials and sales trends based on build up •  Cross-discipline peer review


Key Findings and Conclusions • LTE will dominate mobile broadband industry

•  First traditional market, then vertical markets

• WiMAX to experience growth in applicable niche markets • WiMAX pure-play vendors to rebound

• Capacity demand will drive new deployment methodologies and management solutions

•  Increased usage of small-format base stations •  Self-organizing/self-optimizing networks to automate operations

•  Infrastructure business to shift •  Increasing commoditazation of the RAN • More vendor partnerships around small form-factor base stations •  Tier-1 vendors to continue to focus more on services revenue

• Timing driven by LTE availability •  LTE phones available late 2010 •  Volumes in 2011


About 4Ggear™: The 4G Equipment Analysis Service


Contact Information

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[email protected]

www.maravedis-bwa.com

(305) 992-3196

(514) 313-5465


4G RAN market Aug 2010

Technology

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