4.3c Flammable Hazard V1.2 Phillips Depropanizer
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Transcript of 4.3c Flammable Hazard V1.2 Phillips Depropanizer
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Event Tree Outcomes 6/27/2013
Large LPG Immediate Wind To Delayed Congested Ignited Jet
Leakage Ignition Pop'd Area Ignition Area Points @ Tank
A B C D E F
Yes
0.1
Yes BLEVE
0.9
0.9 Local Thermal
Hazard
No
Yes
0.1
VCE
Yes Yes
0.9 0.1 Flash Fir
& BLEVE
Yes 0.90.125
Large Leak No 0.9
1.00E-04 Flash Fire
No
0.1
Safe Dispersal
No
0.1
Yes
No 0.1
VCE
Yes
0.9 Yes
0.1 Flash Fir
& BLEVE
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Event Tree Outcomes 6/27/2013
C Wind Blowing Toward Populated Area 0.125 Wind Rose data
D Delayed Ignition Near Populated Area 0.9 Expert Opinion
E Congested Area w Vertical Confinement0.1
Historical DataF Jet Flame Strikes Pressurized Vessel 0.1 Layout & Piping Geometry
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Event Tree Outcomes 6/27/2013
Frequency
Per Year
9.00E-06
8.1E-05
1.1E-07
1.0E-07
9.1E-07
1.3E-07
7.9E-07
7.1E-07
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Event Tree Outcomes 6/27/2013
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Vessel Hazards and Consequence Analyses 6/27/2013
BLEVE FIREBALL HAZARD CHARACTERISTICS 27-Jun-13
1:11 AM
Vessel = Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis
Case Phillips Explosion
Maximum Storage Quantity = 85,200 lbs Isobutane
Hemispherical Ground Fireball Diameter = 658 ft. 200.63
Fireball Duration for Complete Combustion, td = 13.28 secs
Calculated Fraction Radiated = 0.4000
Enter Probit Case No. (1 to 8) 4 For Eisenberg For Eisenberg Ground
Thermal Dose Thermal Dose Distance
(4) 2nd Deg Burns = LC01 Therm Flux Probit Value Pr Distance Pr Distance X
Exposure, t, In sec. kW/sq. m Pr ft. meters Meters1.0000 171.9874 2.6699 1,484 452.48 441.22
30.00 13.4170 2.6699 1,005 306.35
100.00 5.4387 2.6699 873 266.00
Probit Constants For BLEVE Fire Pr =A+B*LN(I^n*t) See Page 160, CPQRA
"A" FACTOR -14.9 By Eisenberg et al in 1975
"B" FACTOR 2.56 Consequences more conservative than by Mudan
"n" FACTOR 1.333333 Fireball Durn 13.28 sec
Therm Flux At Grnd Dist, X,
Fireball Hazard Incid Therm Fireball Probit Value Fireball Dur'n Fr Epicenter
kW/sq. meter Exposure, sec Pr kW/sq. meter ft.
(1) US Threshold Of Pain 9.5000 8.00 -1.8922 6.50 1,984
(2) UK Threshold Of Pain 6.3000 30.00 0.0895 11.61 1,524
(3) 1st Deg Burns 7.4696 30.00 0.6707 13.77 1,406
(4) 2nd Deg Burns = LC01 13.4170 30.00 2.6699 24.73 1,055
(5)10% Fatality 18.1750 30.00 3.7059 33.50 901
(6) 50% Fatality 26.5500 30.00 4.9995 48.93 732
(7) 90% Fatality 38.6400 30.00 6.2804 71.21 585
(8) 99.9% Fatality 65.4700 30.00 8.0802 120.66 404
Eisenberg Single Point Study, Tau By Roberts H L
X
Det Thermal Harard @ X = 1,055 ft. meters = 321.52 A solution example for
Max Fireball Duration, td = 13.28 secs (2) UK Threshold Of Pain
Exposure Time at 1054 ft. 13.28 seconds A Constant 2.7352E-06
Thermal Flux at 1054 ft. 24.73 kW/sq. meter B Constant 0.000311111
Probit Value At 1054 ft. = 2.6699 C Constant -0.765555556
See Consequence Range Below Solution To Quardratic
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0.10
1.00
10.00
100 1,000
P
S
O
i
n
p
s
i
g
Distance From Vessel, Feet
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10,000
Clancey
Gugan
Flix Pts.
Edge Of Cloud
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0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1 10 100 1000
T
i
m
e
S
e
c
Incident Thermal Flux, kW/sq m
Fig 2.33: Serious Injury/Fatality Levels For Thermal Radiation (Mudan, 1984), CPQRA, p-161
Near 100% Fatal
Mean 50% Fatal
2nd Deg Burns
1st Deg Burns
Pain Threshold
Mudan LC50 Pt.
Single Pt. Case
Eisenberg LC50
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Flowsheet
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Scale = 0 200 400 ft.