4/29/2015 - Illinois workNet...Illinois Department of Employment Security [email protected]...

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Products Showcase

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April 29, 2015

Facilitators

Melissa MackWDQI Project Manager

Social Policy Research Associates

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Vinz KollerWDQI Director

Social Policy Research Associates

It’s getting HOT in here…

Avoiding the fire drill:

• Just use your phone

• Deactivate microphones on all devices

• Don’t place the line on hold

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• Phones will be muted (To unmute, press *6)

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Illinois Presenters

Patti SchnoorWDQI Project Director

IL Dept of Commerce & Economic OpportunityPatricia Schnoor@illinois gov

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[email protected]

Dr. George PutnamChief Economic Analyst

Illinois Department of Employment [email protected]

Illinois Data Quality

April 2015

ULINE:ULINE:

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Illinois Data Quality

April 2015

ULINE:ULINE:

Share

Clean + Change

ExploreShape

Customer

Universal Portal

Integration: Continuous Process

Longitudinal Data System

EnrichCombine

MIS Data

Customer Vault

Merging and sharing data between agencies is an ongoing process. 8

Agencies Programs Services

WorkforceWorkforce

Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO)

• WIOA Title I• Trade

• Career Services• Employment Services• Training

Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES)

• Trade• Unemployment Insurance • Labor Market Information (LMI)

• Unemployment benefits• LMI

HumanHuman ServicesServices

WDQI & LDS Data Sources

MIS Data

Illinois Department of Human Services (IDHS)

• TANF• Rehabilitation Services

• Public assistance benefits• Disability services

EducationEducation

Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE)

• Pre‐Kindergarten –Grade 12

• Education program/course approvals

Illinois Community College Board (ICCB)

• Adult Education• Community Colleges


Illinois Student Assistance Commission (ISAC)

• Financial Assistance • Financial assistance

Illinois Board of Higher Education (IBHE)

• Private Postsecondary and Public Universities


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Overview of Workforce Narratives

Conventional Narrative Enhanced Narrative

Long‐term Gains Sustainable Results

Clean + Change

Quantitative Workforce Measures

DCEO IDES

Qualitative Workforce Measures

Career Placement Job Attachment Return on

Investment Gap Analysis Competitive

Advantages

ShareExplore

Enrich

Shape

Combine

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g

Workforce Outcomes: Policy Implications Reference Group and Trend Comparisons

Employment and Training Program Exit Reasons Counts for Program Year 2012 Quarter 2 “Q2”

Education/Credential/Military 469 7.4%

Entered Employment 3,073 48.2%ntered mployment 3,073 48. %

Client Terminate 1,069 16.8%

Other 1,759 27.6%

Total 6,369 100.0%

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Workforce NarrativesConventional Narrative Enhanced Narrative

•Job‐based measures•Unit of analysis‐ pairing SSN and Employer UI Account

•Workforce outcomes

•Individual‐based measures•Unit of analysis‐ SSN

•Workforce outcomes

•Outcome comparisons consistent with labor market status•Time‐series and cross‐sectional perspectives on employment and earnings by job attachment and hiring behavior

•Outcome comparisons divorced from labor market status•Cross‐sectional perspective on employment and earnings can be misleading

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Workforce NarrativesConventional Narrative Enhanced Narrative

•Analytical Themes•Job Hiring•Job attachment•Monthly earnings•Near‐term measure development‐

l l b d l b h ld

•Analytical Themes•Employment counts•Monthly earnings

multiple jobs vs dual job holding, primary job, turnover rate …

•Policy Implications of Workforce Outcomes

•Detailed reference group comparison: http://qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov/

•Policy Implications of Workforce Outcomes

•Constrained reference group comparisons

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Conventional Narrative: Employment Counts

Employment count of participants that Exited Employment and Training Program Program Year 2012, Quarter 2

with Employm

ent

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Count of Participants w

Quarterly Incremental Reporting

Exiters that Entered Employment

Conventional Narrative: Monthly Earnings

Participants

Earnings estimates are confounded by partial employment and multiple jobs in a single quarter

Earnings of participants that Exited Employment and Training Program Program Year 2012, Quarter 2

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Earnings of P

Exiters that Entered Employment – Earnings from each of exiter’s employment records distinct.

Exiters that Entered Employment – Earnings from all of exiter’s employment records combined.


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Enhanced Narrative: Employment vs. Job

Combining data allows Decision Makers and Stakeholders the ability to see the big picture and trends in outcomes.Approximately 15% ‐ 20% of jobs are held by individuals with more than one job.

loym

ent/Job Combine

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Pre‐exit and Post‐exit Em

p


Exiter’s Employment Exiter’s Jobs

Enhanced Narrative: Hiring Activity

Prior to exiting, trainees tend to hold multiple jobs and did not maintain stable employment. After exiting, trainee hiring activity decreases as they find stable jobs. Post‐exit trainees are more likely than other IL workers to be hired by an employer for whom they did not work for previously.

of Jobs

17Quarterly Incremental Reporting

Percentage o

Exiter Hires –.New EmployerExiter HiresIllinois Hires – New EmployerIllinois Hires

Enhanced Narrative: Job Attachment for

2 Consecutive Quarters

Exiters exhibit 2Q job attachment similar to IL workers within 2 quarters of exit

mploym

ent

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Percentage of Em

Illinois Jobs Exiter Jobs


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Enhanced Narrative: Job Attachment for

3 Consecutive Quarters

Exiters exhibit 3Q job attachment similar to IL workers within 4 quarters of exit

mploym

ent

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Illinois Jobs Exiter Jobs

Percentage of Em


Enhanced Narrative:Average Monthly Earnings by Job Attachment

Enrich

Stable earnings measure (3Q) reduces the impact of estimation problems due to partial employment and multiple jobs in a single quarter

ngs

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Participant Earnin

Exiters that Entered Employment – Earnings from each of exiter’s employment records distinct.

Exiters that Entered Employment – Earnings from all of exiter’s employment records combined.


Exiters ‐ Earnings from jobs held for 3 Quarters

Enhanced Narrative:Average Monthly Earnings (3Q Job Attachment)

Earnings reflect a distinct seasonal pattern for IL workers that confounds point‐in‐time comparisons; over‐the‐year earnings gains are higher for Exiters (12%) than IL Workers (2%)

ngs

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Participant Earnin


Explore

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Enhanced Narrative:Average Monthly Earnings by Industry

Earnings reflect industry‐specific seasonal pattern; earnings disadvantage of health jobs is more severe among Exiters (‐20%) than IL Workers (‐14%)

ngs

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Participant Earnin


Enhanced Narrative:Average Monthly Earnings by Age within Industry

Older Exiters earn less (‐8%) than other Exiters in Health jobs; earnings disadvantage may be growing

mploym

ent

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Percentage of Em


Enhanced Narrative:Average Monthly Earnings by Age within Industry

Older Exiters earn less (‐8%) than other Exiters in Health jobs; Older IL Workers earn more (16%) than other workers in Health jobs

mploym

ent

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Percentage of Em


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The Vision of the Future

siness Value

ReportingWhat

happened?

AnalyzingWhy did it happen?

PredictingWhat will happen?

ActivatingMake it happen.

OperationalizingWhat is happening

now?

Automated k

Insights

Action

Bus

Degree of Intelligence

Batch Reports

happened?

Ad Hoc

Predictive Models

Link to Operational Systems

Linkages

Analytics Maturity Model

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George [email protected]

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Patti [email protected]

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Indiana Presenters

Carol O. Rogers

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Deputy Director Indiana University Business Research Center,

Indiana [email protected]

Indiana Presenters

Allison LeeuwDirector, Research and Analysis Division

Indiana Department of Workforce DevelopmentALeeuw@dwd IN gov

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[email protected]

Thea EvansWorkforce & Education Analyst Indiana Business Research Center

[email protected]

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A Tranche Approach to “Closing the OccupationClosing the Occupation Data Gap”Indiana Department of Workforce Development and

the IBRC at Indiana University

April 29, 2015

4/29/2015 IDWD and IBRC Partnership for WDQI Round 3 1


From Frustration, A Plan• Through direct and indirect (predictive) means, we will apply the dimension of occupation titles/codes to wage records.

• This will allow the tracking of career pathways and the intersection of WIA training and other education along that pathway and measureWIA training and other education along that pathway and measure outcomes.


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Current State• Of the 13 million Indiana workforce person‐records, only 13.7% have an occupation code (ranging from 2 digit to 6 digit) and that code may have been applied prior to 2010. These come from unemployment claims records, TrackOne and Indiana Career Connect.

• First‐time indicates the first instance of an occupational code for that person for the following summary metrics.

• 77.8% with first‐time code prior to 2010

• 17.1% with first‐time code post 2010

• 5.1% with no date, but a code


Phase I• Link self‐reported occupation from Unemployment forms to detailed SOC codes. Occupation data comes from Uplink claimant self‐service center, Indiana Career Connect (ICC) and TrackOne customer service center.

• Unemployment claims from 2014 and later contain 6‐digit SOC codes

• Unemployment claims prior to 2014 only contain 2‐digit SOC codes

• ICC work history contains 6‐digit SOC codes

• TrackOne work history contains a mixture of 6‐digit SOC codes and free‐form occupation title inputs


Phase I• Bridge licenses (PLA) to occupation and wage records. Applying for and obtaining a state license or certificate does not necessarily mean that the license holder is actually working in that occupation, so care will be taken to build license to appropriate‐NAICS (at the 5‐digit level) to first determine if the license holder is working in that occupationif the license holder is working in that occupation.

• License data available from circa 1940 to present

• Approximately 240 licenses for Indiana (including temporary and limited licenses)

• Database includes the status and issue and expiration dates of the license

• DWD provided a crosswalk to link license type and SOC codes

• OES staffing patterns will be used to link the SOC codes by license type to the associated NAICS codes

• The corresponding SOC code to will be assigned to the wage record of the license holder if there is a match between the license type and NAICS code from the wage record


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• Complete the public employment (approx. 750,000 records with secular job titles) bridge to occupation titles/codes and add to the warehouse records

• Data available for 2012 ‐ 2014

Phase I

• Data will be cleaned and standardized by occupation grouping (managers, assistants, custodians, drivers, etc.)

• SOC codes will be assigned based upon the occupation title and the department of employment

• If a detailed occupation code isn’t able to be determined based upon the information, the record will be assigned to the “All Other” group (e.g. 25‐1199: Postsecondary Teachers, All Other)


• Compile data to be used for predictive modeling• OES NAICS staffing patterns for Indiana, Economic Growth Regions, and counties. Compiled by DWD.

• Currently possible for 5‐digit NAICS

• Data available from 2009 – 2014

Phase 2

Data available from 2009 2014

• Includes wage distributions for each occupation

• National OES staffing patterns

• Data available for 2 to 4‐digit NAICS

• Data available from 1988‐2014

• Includes major industries of employment and wage distributions for each occupation

• O*NET data for occupations• Includes KSAs, educational requirements, and projected growth for each occupation


Phase 2• Build a master crosswalk to link data from all sources

• Evaluate the Perkins IV (Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Education Act of 2006) series of crosswalks (http://www.careertech.org/crosswalks) that link SOC 2000 d NAICS d (2 3 4 d 5 di it ) CIP d d th 16SOC 2000 codes, NAICS codes (2, 3, 4, and 5 digits), CIP codes, and the 16 Career Cluster codes.

• Many of these tables were created prior to 2010 and do not contain updated SOC or NAICS codes. 4 Tables were updated with a grant from the National Research Center for Career and Technical Education (NRCCTE) in 2012, and they produced a report on the updating and validation process of the tables.

• Need to determine whether these sources can be used as a base.


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Phase 3• Constructing Career Pathways

• Tackle the temporal construct for the “career pathway”. Determine methods of measuring multiple occupation codes on a temporal basis so that we can measure occupational changes over time based on industry, occupation and wages.

• We would then be able to look at the education dimension based on the attainment (from a public college) of a certificate or degree (by level).

• Test whether the efficacy of using the Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) taxonomy to industry enhances accuracy


Tranche MethodOne part or division of a larger unit, from the French tranche “to cut, to slice”; a term often used in finance. We use it here because we are taking slices or slivers of many sources to create a modeled approach that combines direct and indirect assignments of occupations.


The Tranche Method


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Thank You!

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4/29/2015 - Illinois workNet...Illinois Department of Employment Security [email protected]...

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