DOMESTIC:

Dr Reddy’s to buy 8 products from Teva for USD350mn Tata Power acquires Welspun Energy's renewable

assets Amtek's German unit to fetch USD700mn Siemens bags Rs78cr order from Power Grid Corp of

India Aksh Optifibre seeks shareholders’ nod to diversify

business Tata Power to buy 25% in Resurgent Power for

Rs1,800cr Mahanagar Gas finalizes Rs1,040cr IPO Alstom T&D wins Rs202cr orders from Power Grid

Corporation HUDCO’s 10% stake-sale plan gets Cabinet nod JLR begins operations at Brazilian plant Nippon Express in talks to buy 43% stake in TVS

Logistics

ECONOMY:

Ahead of USD20bn outflow, banks alert RBI about possible dollar shortage in market

Retail inflation inches up to 5.76% in May

INDUSTRY:

Pharma sector grows 7.7% in May; FDC ban weighs Government mulls Rs10,000cr bioenergy mission from

next fiscal Ministry of New and Renewable Energy to set up 1000

MW wind power projects Indian real estate may attract USD2bn investment

from Japan Fertiliser output likely to set new record at 25.5 MT in

FY17

TM

One Year Sensex Performance

Coverage Universe Valuations

Company CMP Reco. Tgt price Upside Mcap EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PE(x)

(Rs) (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E

Supreme Petrochem Ltd 189 BUY 200 5.6 18.3 25.5 17.4 0.5 0.4 12.3 8.5

Indian Hume Pipe Co.Ltd 354 BUY 475 34.2 8.6 16.4 11.5 9.1 8.2 8.4 6.8

Shanthi Gears Ltd 119 BUY 150 26.1 9.7 85.6 67.4 5.3 5.3 35.6 31.6

Hind Rectifiers Ltd 65 BUY 110 68.7 1.0 54.2 12.3 1.0 0.8 20.9 9.0

KCP Limited 93 BUY 105 13.0 12.0 30.2 21.5 2.2 1.9 12.7 10.7

Navneet Education Ltd 94 BUY 130 39.0 22.3 15.1 13.1 2.2 2.0 9.1 8.0

Harita Seating System Ltd 541 BUY 750 38.6 4.2 42.8 31.4 1.5 1.4 26.8 20.9

Camlin Fine Sciences 91 BUY 140 54.7 8.7 11.1 8.5 1.6 1.3 8.4 6.8

GEE Limited 37 BUY 70 89.7 0.9 16.0 11.5 0.7 0.6 6.3 5.6

Hester Biosciences Ltd 659 BUY 750 13.8 5.6 40.5 33.2 5.7 4.5 20.0 16.1

West Coast Paper Mills Ltd 77 BUY 110 42.3 5.1 14.6 4.0 0.6 0.6 4.0 3.3

Rallis India Ltd 209 BUY 260 24.2 40.7 26.7 20.9 2.4 2.1 14.9 12.3

The Hitech Gears Ltd 262 BUY 450 71.8 4.9 18.4 14.0 1.0 0.9 7.8 6.6

Bharat Bijlee Ltd 910 BUY 1500 64.9 5.1 90.9 42.1 0.9 0.8 30.5 26.1

Castrol India Ltd 374 BUY 650 73.9 184.8 28.3 26.4 4.7 4.5 18.0 16.8

Engineers India Ltd 201 BUY 325 61.7 67.7 19.2 18.3 2.4 3.3 15.7 22.0

TNPL 269 BUY 350 30.1 18.7 8.6 7.4 1.6 1.5 6.2 5.5

Triveni Turbines Ltd 113 BUY 135 20.0 37.1 36.4 30.6 0.5 0.4 2.4 2.0

Rajoo Engineers Ltd 17 BUY 24 41.6 1.0 13.3 9.5 0.8 0.7 7.0 5.3

Siemens Ltd 1257 BUY 1500 19.3 447.5 47.8 41.2 3.8 3.4 27.9 23.8

Hikal Ltd 161 BUY 200 24.4 13.2 37.8 26.7 2.1 2.0 10.2 9.0

TRIL 340 BUY 450 32.5 4.5 -15.4 25.1 9.6 6.9 428 77.0

KEC International Ltd 136 BUY 200 47.3 34.9 17.1 11.9 0.7 0.6 8.4 6.7

Aksh Optifibre Ltd 16 BUY 24 54.1 2.5 7.6 4.6 0.6 0.5 3.3 2.5

Price Performance (%)

Company 1M 3M 12M

Supreme Petrochem Ltd 7% 65% 146%

Indian Hume Pipe Co. Ltd 2% 9% 24%

Shanthi Gears Ltd 18.2% 49% 23%

Hind Rectifiers Ltd 2% 4% -2%

KCP Limited 16% 24% 54%

Navneet Education Ltd 5% 15% -1%

Harita Seating System Ltd 7% 24% 222%

Camlin Fine Sciences -8% -3% -11%

GEE Limited -10% 1% 61%

Hester Biosciences Ltd 7% 49% 12%

West Coast Paper Mills Ltd -12% 22% 42%

Rallis India Ltd 0% 25% -6%

The Hitech Gears Ltd 2% 7% 2%

Bharat Bijlee Ltd -1% 10% 66%

Castrol India Ltd -6% 1% -17%

Engineers India Ltd 10% 25% -5%

TNPL 4% 31% 79%

Triveni Turbines Ltd 0% 16% -3%

Rajoo Engineers Ltd -0.3% 7% 28%

Siemens Ltd 8% 23% -5%

Hikal Ltd 1.9% 26% 32%

TRIL 6% 44% 42%

KEC International Ltd 2.0% 15% 4%

Aksh Optifibre Ltd 0.4% 19% 13%

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The week that went by: The week opened negative in tandem to global cues which were trading lower ahead of central bank meetings in the US and Japan during the week and amid jitters over the upcoming referendum on whether the UK will remain in the European Union. On the domestic front, government is to release May consumer price inflation data and the wholesale price index (WPI) which added to the volatility. India's annual wholesale price inflation (WPI) moved further higher into the positive zone at 0.79% against 0.34% in April and -2.20% in the corresponding month of the previous year. There was negativity in the Sensex witnessed mid-week as well. Weakness was seen in Asian stocks after the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates on hold weighed on domestic bourses. There was selling pressure seen across different sectors.

Initiating coverage: Aksh Optifiber Limited Established in 1986, Aksh Optifibre Limited (Aksh) is almost a three-decade old company which is involved in manufacturing of Optical Fibre and Optical Fibre Cables (OFC). The company is promoted by Dr. Kailash Choudhari. Aksh is one of largest manufacturer of optical fibre and optical fibre cables in India with an annual capacity of over 3million km of fibre and 3 million km of OFC. Apart from this, the company is one of largest producers of FRP rods with an annual capacity of 3 million km of FRP. The Company manufactures a wide array of Optical Fiber Cables which include single mode and multimode cables, duct cables, armoured FTTH (for aerial installations and fibre to home) cables, indoor and outdoor cables and special application cables (which are hybrid in nature, all purpose and ceramic armoured cables). It has two manufacturing plants located at Bhiwadi, Rajasthan which focus on fibre and optical fibre cables and one plant at Reengus, Rajasthan which focuses on FRP rods.

Recommendation and comments: The valuations appear to be attractive given the strong revenue visibility and better operating margins which could get reflected in the bottom line. We recommend a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs24 from a 12-month perspective.

COVERAGE NEWS

Siemens bags Rs78cr order from Power Grid Corp of India Siemens has won an order worth around Rs78cr from the state-run Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) for engineering, procurement and construction project at Bhuj in Gujarat.

Our Comments: The project will boost the power handling capacity of Power Grid Corporation of India and create safe, reliable transmission infrastructure in western India. The project also promotes environment protection as these Transformers will transmit power generated from renewable sources.

Aksh Optifibre seeks shareholders’ nod to diversify business Aksh Optifibre sought shareholders nod to diversify its business in the field of eyewear, lighting, solar products and financial technologies. The company in a postal ballot notice sent to shareholders has sought their approval to change some clauses in its Memorandum of Association (MOA) that will enable it to operate new businesses related to eyewear, lighting and financial technologies that include ATM business as well.

Our Comments: The board of the company has already approved Rs85cr for the diversification of its product portfolio to manufacture 2 lakh pair of ophthalmic lenses per day in phased manner to mitigate business risk and improve company’s business performance.

TM

Fundamental Pick of the month

Aksh into business diversification

Siemens bags order

ECONOMY:

Ahead of USD20bn outflow, banks alert RBI about possible dollar shortage in market In the run-up to a likely outflow of USD20bn of foreign currency deposits between September and November this year, banks have alerted the RBI about possible mismatches in the market and shortage of cash dollar. At a meeting held between RBI officials and bankers to discuss how the redemption could impact banks and money markets, bankers said there could be delay in delivery of dollars by banks with whom RBI had entered into forward deals.

Our Comments: The forward deals were struck by RBI to make sure that when the deposits come up for repayment, dollars could be supplied to banks without directly drawing down on the country's forex reserves. In the second half of 2013, RBI incentivised banks to attract foreign currency deposits by offering higher returns to NRIs.

Retail inflation inches up to 5.76% in May A sharp spike in food articles inflation has led to May retail inflation inching up to 5.76%, weakening prospects of any RBI repo rate cut in August. This May 2016 print is higher than retail inflation of 5.01% in May last year and 5.47% in April this year. Food articles inflation jumped to 7.55% in May 2016 from 6.40% in previous month. The latest Consumer Price Index based inflation print is also above the RBI expectation of 5% for 2016-17. RBI expects food inflation to moderate in the coming months given the forecast of above normal monsoon this fiscal. Food articles has 47% weightage in the consumer prices inflation index.

Our Comments: CPI inflation was higher than street estimates, mainly on account of higher protein based inflation, vegetables and pulses.

Government says closely monitoring possible fallout of Brexit Government is keeping a watch on the global risk factors to the economy including Brexit, turmoil in the Middle East and spike in oil prices in the international market. On June 23, UK will vote on whether to remain in the 28-nation European Union or to leave. Britain's exit from the EU, or Brexit, is being debated globally as it could have implications for the international financial market and exchange rates. Another concern is the turmoil in the Middle East and its implications on the crude oil prices. As a net importer, India has significantly benefited from the recent low oil prices, which have now started inching up.

Our Comments: India has significant trade with UK as well as EU, thereby Brexit is a matter of concern across economies. It also receives large investments from the Europe. With respect to oil prices, government's fiscal maths and inflation calculations would not be impacted if the oil prices stay below the $60 mark.

US industrial production fell 0.4% in May vs. 0.2% drop expected US industrial production fell more than expected in May on a decline in utilities output and auto manufacturing a sign that the economy may be losing some steam in the second quarter. Industrial output declined 0.4% last month after a downwardly revised 0.6% increase in April. Last month, manufacturing output fell 0.4% and the output of consumer goods declined 0.7%. A 2.2% drop in consumer durables reflected fewer automotive products but also declines for home electronics, appliances and furniture.

Our Comments: With overall output decreasing, the percentage of industrial capacity in use fell 0.4 percentage points in May to 74.9%, from a downwardly revised 75.3% in April. The Fed sees capacity use as a leading indicator in deciding how much further the economy can grow before sparking higher inflation.

TM

Government closely watches risk factors to

economy

Dollar shortage expected in markets

Retail inflation inches up

Drop in US industrial production

INDUSTRY: Pharma sector grows 7.7% in May; FDC ban weighs Indian pharmaceutical market grew 7.7% in May compared with 3.5% in April, but the ban on fixed-dose combination (FDC) drugs remains an overhang. On the other hand, the non-FDC category grew relatively better at 8.4% in May as against 4.2% in April. Therapy-wise, the anti-diabetic, neurology/CNS and cardiac segments outperformed the pharma market growth by 250-700bps, while the gastrointestinal and anti-infective segments were laggards.

Our Comments: Overall, Indian companies posted a 20.2% decline in FDCs and MNCs a 0.9% dip.

Government mulls Rs10,000cr bioenergy mission from next fiscal The Centre is planning to launch an integrated bioenergy mission with an outlay of Rs10,000cr from next fiscal to enhance use of bio-fuels like ethanol and biogas for reducing consumption of fossil fuels. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy is working on an integrated bioenergy mission with an indicative outlay of Rs10,000cr from 2017-18 to 2021-22.

Our Comments: The objective of the mission would be to reduce greenhouse gases emissions as agreed in the Nationally Determined Contributions at COP21.

Ministry of New and Renewable Energy to set up 1000 MW wind power projects The New and Renewable Energy Ministry plans to set up grid-connected 1,000 MW wind energy projects which will supply power at price discovered through competitive bidding. The ministry sanctioned a scheme for setting up 1,000MW CTU-connected wind power projects. The ministry has invited public comments by June 24 on the draft guidelines for implementation of the scheme.

Our Comments: The 1,000 MW capacity is envisaged for bidding in 2016-17. The project capacity will be determined by Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) for each tender, but will not be less than 25MW for a single project developer at one site.

Indian real estate may attract USD2bn investment from Japan Japanese developers and private equity investors are looking to enter Indian property market and could invest at least USD2bn over the next three years in residential as well as industrial projects. Realty consultant JLL India said in a report that the country is emerging as a major investment destination for Chinese and Japanese developers. China's biggest developer Wanda has signed an MoU with Haryana government earlier this year and more developers from China and Japan are expected to enter the Indian realty market.

Our Comments: The RICS-JLL survey this January had shown that 62% of the respondents felt that institutions from Japan and China could come knocking to the Indian real estate market in 2016.

Fertiliser output likely to set new record at 25.5MT in FY17 Fertiliser production is likely to touch a new record at 25.5 million tonnes in the current fiscal owing to high capacity utilisation. The urea output had reached a record 24.5MT last year. India imports 7-8MT of urea to meet the local requirement of about 32MT. At present, all 30 urea plants public and private are operating at 120% capacity. Therefore, urea production is likely to increase by 1MT to 25.5MT.

Our Comments: This expected rise in production will save the exchequer around Rs2,000cr. The policy, to be implemented retrospectively from 2008, will ease the movement of fertiliser in every corner of the country and added that the subsidy outgo for the same may rise to Rs150cr.

TM

Growth in pharma sector, FDC hangover

Bioenergy mission on track

Wind power projects on the way

Indian real estate attracts investments

Fertiliser output to set new record

COMPANY:

Dr. Reddy’s to buy 8 products from Teva for USD350mn Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd, said that it will acquire a portfolio of eight abbreviated new drug applications in the US from Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd and an affiliate of Allergan plc for USD350mn. The company said it will buy this portfolio on a cash free, debt free basis and expects to finance the transaction using a combination of cash on hand and available borrowings under existing credit facilities. The product includes a mix of filed ANDAs pending approval and an approved ANDA and comprised of complex generic products across diverse dosage forms.

Our Comments: This transaction will add strength to the product portfolio of the company and help it be more relevant in the US market and also create new opportunities for growth.

Tata Power acquires Welspun Energy's renewable assets Tata Power Company has said its renewables arm has signed an agreement with Welspun Energy Pvt Ltd to acquire its green energy portfolio for an estimated at Rs10,000cr (USD1.4bn). Tata Power Renewable Energy said it has signed share purchase agreement to buy Welspun Renewable Energy's 1.1 GW renewable portfolio in what would be the largest solar M&A in the country and also among the largest such renewable buyout in the whole of Asia.

Our Comments: Even though the financial details of the transaction were not disclosed, sources in the know said, the enterprise value of the Welspun portfolio is around Rs1000cr (USD1.4bn). Tatas are paying Rs3,650cr as the equity component of the deal. The rest is the debt in the company which Tatas would look to refinance with lender approvals.

Amtek's German unit to fetch USD700mn Amtek is close to selling its profitable German unit, Tekfor, for about USD700mn (Rs4,690cr) to a foreign buyer in a bid to reduce its debt. The consolidated debt of the group is estimated to be about USD2.2bn (Rs14,700cr). The group also plans to sell 50% share in a joint venture unit and a domestic food business, as well as raise funds from three overseas investors. It claims that after these deals are done, the debt of the company will come down by USD1bn (Rs6,700cr) in the next 12 months.

Our Comments: All the measures are needed to be taken by the company in order to reduce the debt of the company.

Tata Power to buy 25% in Resurgent Power for Rs1,800cr Tata Power will purchase 25% of Resurgent Power for USD300mn (around Rs1,800cr) as part of a consortium to primarily buy both coal-fired and hydro power assets in India, besides looking at power transmission companies. Resurgent Power is founded by a consortium of two sovereign funds from Middle East, an overseas pension fund from Canada and local private equity fund ICICI Ventures. Kuwait Investment Authority, or KIA, Oman State General Reserve Fund, or OSGRF, Canadian pension fund Caisse de depot placement du Quebec, or CDPQ and local private equity fund ICICI Ventures own the consortium. The three global funds will invest USD500mn and will own 65% stake, while ICICI Ventures will own the remaining 10% stake.

Our Comments: The new joint venture with overseas sovereign and pension funds is part of Tata Power's plan to quickly build a sizable coal and hydro power portfolio taking advantage of a push by local lenders to cut down non-performing assets of power producers in their books by hawking these assets to cash-rich companies.

TM

KEY NEWS ANALYSIS

DRL to buy products from Teva

Tata power to acquire welspun assets

Amtek to sell German unit

Tata power to buy into Resurgent Power

Suven gets patent for CNS molecules from Canada, Hong Kong Suven Life Sciences has received a patent each from Canada and Hong Kong for molecules to be developed as drugs for treatment of various central nervous system (CNS) disorders. The product patents are "valid through 2032 and 2030, respectively. With these new patents, the company has a total of 23 patents from Canada and 20 patents from Hong Kong.

Our Comments: The new chemical entities (NCEs) are being developed for the treatment of cognitive impairment associated with neuro-degenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson and Schizophrenia.

Mahanagar Gas finalizes Rs1,040cr IPO Mahanagar Gas Ltd, the sole supplier of natural gas in Mumbai and its adjoining areas, plans to raise Rs1,040cr through an initial public offering (IPO). The Mumbai-based firm, a joint venture of state-run GAIL (India) Ltd and BG Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (now owned by Royal Dutch Shell Plc), will offer shares at a price band of Rs380-421 to investors. The sale will open on 21 June and end on 23 June. Mahanagar Gas sells CNG and PNG in Mumbai and its adjoining areas, including Raigad district in Maharashtra.

Our Comments: The proceeds of the IPO will go to the two holding companies which will offload 12.5% stake each. The government of Maharashtra holds 10% stake in the company. Post offer, the shareholding of GAIL (India) and BG Asia will drop to 32.5% each.

Alstom T&D wins Rs202cr orders from Power Grid Corporation Alstom T&D India bagged two contracts valued at Rs202cr from Power Grid Corporation for projects in Madhya Pradesh. Both projects will facilitate evacuation of power and add to availability of electricity in the central region. Under the first contract, estimated at Rs119cr, Alstom T&D India will set up a substation at Rewa. The contract also includes supply of three 500 MVA power transformers and one 125 MVAR shunt reactor at 400kV level. The substation will evacuate power from the 750MW solar park coming up at Rewa. In the second contract, worth Rs82.8cr, Alstom T&D India will install, test and commission 16 shunt reactors of 110 MVAR, 765kV, 1-ph and two shunt reactors of 80 MVAR, 400 KV, 3-ph as part of Gadarwara Part A Transmission system project in Madhya Pradesh. The project will evacuate power from NTPC's 1600 MW, Gadarwara Supercritical Thermal Power Station.

Our Comments: These substations are an integral part of the country's plans to improve the transmission network and address the growing demand of electricity as India moves towards the goal of providing 'Power to All' by 2019. These projects will help improve power flow in Madhya Pradesh.

HUDCO’s 10% stake-sale plan gets Cabinet nod The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved disinvestment of 10% paid-up equity in Housing and Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO) through an initial public offering in the domestic market. The paid-up equity capital of HUDCO is Rs2,001.90cr and government owns 100% equity at present. The net worth of the company is approximately Rs7,800cr.

Our Comments: The stake dilution is in line with the Centre’s plans to encourage listing among public sector firms, apart from enhancing efficiency and corporate governance.

TM

KEY NEWS ANALYSIS

Mahanagar IPO on the cards

Stake sale plan of Hudco

Suven gets patent for CNS molecules

Alstom wins order from PGCIL

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TM