40 Years of Intelligence Expertise - Distilled...
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During this presentation we cover the Five Fundamental Truths and the Six Essential Truths from one of the most important articles you can ever read about intelligence collection and analysis - "What I learned in 40 years of doing intelligence analysis for foreign policy makers..." In short, we've tried to distill this article into a few key points, all of which are relevant to the world of business today.
Transcript of 40 Years of Intelligence Expertise - Distilled...
- 40Years Of Intelligence Expertise Distilled
- The Article: What I learned in 40 years Author: Martin Peterson CIA FullTitle: What I learned in 40 years of doing intelligence analysis for US Foreign Policymakers Contains: Martins: Five Fundamental Truths Six Essential Truths
- Five FundamentalTruths The product is optional equipment It is not surprising then that policymakers do not always see how we can help them: After all, I, the policymaker, am smart and have excellent sources of information (including all the ones you have), and I am very busy, so why should I spend some of my most precious commodity on you? The written product is forever Once it is printed, there is no taking it back or modifying it. The public does not segregate success or failure in the intelligence business success is transitory, and failure is permanent. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol.-55-no.-1/what-i-learned-in-40-years-of-doing- intelligence-analysis-for-us-foreign-policymakers.html
- Five FundamentalTruths Our collective credibility rides on every piece of intelligence that goes out the door Our ability to raise the level of the debate or to help policymakers make the best decisions possible or to speak truth to powerhowever one defines the missionrests on one thing and one thing only: our reputations for analytic rigor, objectivity, and total integrity. Lose that and we lose everything. Our customers are smarter and more sophisticated than we give them credit for, they have their own independent sources of information and analysis which we are competing We have to establish our credibility and usefulness individual by individual, administration by administration. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol.-55-no.-1/what-i-learned-in-40-years-of-doing- intelligence-analysis-for-us-foreign-policymakers.html
- Six EssentialTruths 1) How one thinks about the mission affects deeply how one does the mission 2) Intelligence failures come from an inability to step back and think about: a) UnderlyingTrends, Forces, and Assumptions not from failing to connect the dots 3) Good Analysis makes the complex comprehensible which is not the same thing as simple 4) No substitute for knowing the domain 5) Intelligence starts when we stop reporting on events in our area and start explaining them 6) Managers of intelligence analysts get the behavior they reward https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol.-55-no.-1/what-i-learned-in-40-years-of-doing- intelligence-analysis-for-us-foreign-policymakers.html
- Service vs. Product Mentality A service mentality is the opposite of a product mentality, which often seems to drive the work of intelligence analysis In a product mentality, the focus is on the producer, who thinks of a product as his or hers. It is also about packaging that product and disseminating it widely. Success is measured in numbershow many units were produced or how many received each unit. Forty years of experience have taught me that failing to identify a specific audience and an intelligence question up front is often at the root of the weakest analytic efforts. Success is measured not by the number of units produced, but by how well the product addresses and answers the specific concerns of an identified and targeted audience. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol.-55-no.-1/what-i-learned-in-40-years-of-doing- intelligence-analysis-for-us-foreign-policymakers.html
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