Global Monthly September 2016

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

UK Euro Area US Japan

Change from Jun 22 to Sep 01

Change from Jun 22 to Sep 23

Percent

2

September 2016

0

2

4

6

8

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Global AE EMDEPercent, yoy

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

Composite Manufacturing Services

Range since 2014 Q2 Avg Aug. 2016Index, >50 indicates expansion

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Percent, year-on-year

3

September 2016

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

U.K

.

Eu

ro A

rea

Be

lgiu

m

Ne

the

rla

nds

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Change in sentiment index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

1 hike 1 hike or more

Percent

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2010 2012 2014 2016

Export price (in yen)Export price (in contract currency) Nominal effective exchange rate

Index = 100 in 2010

4

September 2016

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

2013

2014

20

15

20

16

SOE Private Mixed TotalPercent, year-on-year

36

40

44

48

52

56

Ja

n-1

4

Ap

r-14

Ju

l-1

4

Oct-

14

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-1

5

Oct-

15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-16

EMDE excl. Brazil, RussiaBrazilRussia

Composite PMI, >50=expansion

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

India

Chin

a

Rom

ania

Indonesia

Mala

ysia

Thaila

nd

Pola

nd

Hungary

Mexic

o

South

Afr

ica

Russia

Nig

eria

Bra

zil

Current 2-year average

Percent, yoy

5

September 2016

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014 2015 2016

Commodity importersNon-oil exportersOil exporters

Basis points

0

20

40

60

80

100

LAC EAP MENA ECA SA SSA

Jul-Aug

First semester

US$ billions

2016

2015

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Energy Agriculture MetalsIndex, nominal terms, 2010=100

6

September 2016

-1

0

1

2

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

Euro Area Sweden JapanSwitzerland Denmark Hungary

PercentPercent

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oct-

15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Euro Area Sweden Japan

Switzerland Denmark Hungary

Percent

-1

-0.5

0

Euro

Are

a

Sw

eden

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Denm

ark

Japan

Hungary

Deposit (HH) Lending (HH)2-year bond yields Money market rate

Percent

7

September 2016

-6

-4

-2

0

2

1-m

onth

inte

rbank r

ate

3-m

onth

inte

rbank r

ate

2-y

ear

govern

ment

bond y

ield

s

10-y

ear

govern

ment

bond y

ield

s

Average MedianBasis points

-1

0

1

2

-1

0

1

2

10

-ye

ar

infla

tio

ne

xp

ecta

tio

ns

NE

ER

(RH

S)

Eq

uitie

s(R

HS

)

Average MedianBasis points Percent

-4

-2

0

2

1-m

on

thin

terb

an

k r

ate

3-m

on

thin

terb

an

k r

ate

2-y

ea

rg

ove

rnm

en

tb

on

d y

ield

s

10

-ye

ar

go

ve

rnm

en

tb

on

d y

ield

s

Pre-crisis cuts Post-crisis cuts

QE NIRP cuts

Basis points

8

September 2016

Global Economic Prospects - January 2017 (forthcoming)

Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2016 (forthcoming)

Commodity Markets Outlook - July 2016: From Energy Prices to Food Prices: Moving in Tandem

Global Economic Prospects - June 2016: Divergences and Risks

Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2016: Resource Development in an Era of Cheap Commodities

Global Economic Prospects - January 2016: Spillovers amid Weak Growth

From Commodity Discovery to Production

The State of Economics, the State of the World

Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications

On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty

The Capabilities Driving Participation in Global Value Chains

The Volatility of International Trade Flows in the 21st Century: Whose Fault Is It Anyway?

Building Long-Term Portfolio Benchmarks for Pension Funds in Emerging Economies

Factor Endowments, Technology, Capital Mobility and the Sources of Comparative Advantage in Manufacturing

Global Inequality: The Implications of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century

Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts

Fiscal Policy and Financial Development for Growth in the Eastern Caribbean

South Africa and the Ghost of a Rating Downgrade to Sub-Investment Grade

(Percent, y-o-y) (Percent y-o-y) Recent releases: August 20, 2016 - Sept 20, 2016 Upcoming releases: Sept 23, 2016 - Oct 22, 2016

Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous

Malaysia 8/24/2016 CPI JUL 1.1 % 1.2 % 1.6 % Netherland 9/23/16 GDP Q2 1.4 %

Japan 8/25/16 CPI JUL -0.4 % -0.4 % -0.4 % Singapore 9/23/16 CPI AUG -0.7 %

France 8/26/16 GDP Q2 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.3 % Germany 9/29/16 CPI SEP 0.4 %

Denmark 8/31/16 GDP Q2 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Japan 9/29/16 CPI AUG -0.4 %

Brazil 8/31/16 GDP Q2 -3.8 % -5.4 % Italy 9/30/16 CPI SEP -0.1 %

Belgium 8/31/16 GDP Q2 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4% Denmark 9/30/16 GDP Q2 0.3 %

Indonesia 9/1/16 CPI AUG 2.79 % 3.5 % 3.2% Indonesia 10/3/16 CPI SEP 2.8%

Hungary 9/6/16 GDP Q2 1.8 % 0.9% Philippines 10/4/16 CPI SEP 1.8 %

Euro Area 9/6/16 GDP Q2 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.7 % Netherland 10/6/16 CPI SEP 0.2 %

Australia 9/6/16 GDP Q2 3.3 % 3.15 % 3.1 % Mexico 10/6/16 CPI SEP 2.7%

Japan 9/7/16 GDP Q2 0.7 % 2.1% Brazil 10/7/16 CPI SEP 9.0%

Hungary 9/8/16 CPI AUG -0.1 % -0.3 % Czech Republic 10/10/16 CPI SEP 0.6 %

China 9/8/16 CPI AUG 1.3 % 1.7 % 1.8 % Denmark 10/10/16 CPI SEP 0.2 %

Czech Republic 9/9/16 CPI AUG 0.6 % 0.5 % Greece 10/10/16 CPI SEP -0.9 %

Brazil 9/9/16 CPI AUG 0.1 8.7% Hungary 10/11/16 CPI SEP -0.1 %

Denmark 9/12/16 CPI AUG 0.2 % 0.5 % 0.3 % Germany 10/13/16 CPI SEP 0.4 %

France 9/14/16 CPI AUG 0.2 % 0.35 % 0.2 % Italy 10/14/16 CPI SEP -0.1 %

Austria 9/15/16 CPI AUG 0.6 % 0.6 % Singapore 10/14/16 GDP Q3 2.1 %

Euro Area 9/15/16 CPI AUG 0.2 % 0.0 0.2 % China 10/18/16 GDP Q3 6.7 %

United States 9/16/16 CPI AUG 1.1 % 0.70 % 0.8 % United States 10/18/16 CPI SEP 1.1 %

Malaysia 9/21/16 CPI AUG 1.5 % 1.3 % 1.1 % Malaysia 10/19/16 CPI SEP 1.5 %

9

September 2016

2015 2016 2015 2016

2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Industrial Production, sa 1

World 3.2 2.0 2.2 1.3 1.3 2.5 1.7 2.1 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.4 -

Advanced Economies 2.0 0.5 0.7 -1.4 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -1.3 0.2 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -

Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.5 3.6 3.7 4.2 2.5 3.9 3.0 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.7 4.0 3.2 -

Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.1 0.2 -1.4 0.5 1.4 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 -1.0 0.3 1.7 -0.7 -0.8 0.5 1.8 - -

Other EMDE 6.8 5.1 6.0 5.6 2.9 5.6 4.6 5.4 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 3.9 4.1

East Asia and Pacific 7.5 5.8 5.8 7.5 3.3 5.9 5.1 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 5.8 6.1

East Asia excl. China 3.0 3.6 5.8 5.5 4.5 3.8 2.0 3.7 4.3 2.0 5.5 5.5 3.2 2.0 5.8 6.4 4.9 -

Europe and Central Asia 2.7 0.5 2.9 4.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 3.1 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 -0.4 0.0

Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -3.2 -5.0 -6.5 -2.7 -3.2 -4.0 -4.8 -5.2 -4.6 -4.1 -4.9 -4.3 -4.2 -3.6 -2.3 -2.7 -

Middle East and North Africa 1.3 4.3 2.6 7.1 4.1 4.2 3.2 5.0 6.1 3.9 6.6 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 3.0 - -

South Asia 2.6 4.3 5.4 -8.1 4.7 7.7 3.6 10.3 -1.3 1.0 0.3 3.5 2.6 -0.3 1.5 3.1 -1.8 -

Sub-Saharan Africa -0.1 -1.0 8.3 -4.0 2.9 0.5 -0.3 -2.2 -2.9 -1.5 -0.8 1.6 -1.2 2.4 4.1 4.5 1.6 -

Inflation, sa 2

World 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.9

Advanced Economies 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3

Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.9

Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.1 3.5 3.6

Other EMDE 2.9 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.2

East Asia and Pacific 3.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8

Europe and Central Asia 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.7 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.7

Latin America and Caribbean 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.9

Middle East and North Africa 2.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.5 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.9

South Asia 6.8 3.5 2.4 3.0 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.0

Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2

(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized)

2015 2016 2015 2016

2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Exports, Nominal, US$, sa

World 0.7 -11.6 -6.9 -6.7 -12.7 -13.9 -12.6 -12.6 -11.3 -10.4 -11.8 -9.0 -3.9 -2.6 -3.8 -4.7 -6.8 -

Advanced Economies 1.0 -10.8 -6.3 -7.3 -5.2 -12.4 -10.9 -11.3 -9.6 -9.8 -8.9 -4.0 -3.5 0.0 -1.7 -3.2 -5.6 -

Emerging Market and Developing Economies

0.3 -12.9 -7.9 -5.6 -24.3 -16.2 -15.1 -14.6 -14.0 -11.4 -16.3 -16.7 -4.6 -7.2 -7.5 -7.1 -8.7 -

Commodity-exporting EMDE -5.4 -25.4 -24.4 -13.6 -28.5 -30.2 -28.7 -25.8 -24.7 -22.9 -25.4 -15.1 -17.1 -14.4 - - - -

Other EMDE 5.0 -3.8 3.0 -1.0 -20.5 -5.9 -5.5 -7.1 -6.8 -4.0 -11.0 -16.9 4.6 -2.2 -3.8 -2.3 -4.8 -1.1

East Asia and Pacific 4.6 -3.5 0.7 -1.2 -25.2 -6.7 -5.8 -8.2 -7.8 -4.2 -13.2 -20.6 6.1 -3.9 -5.2 -4.3 -6.2 -1.8

Europe and Central Asia -1.4 -21.7 -15.9 -9.9 -21.8 -25.3 -20.8 -21.1 -18.5 -15.7 -22.6 -13.7 -14.0 -8.1 -10.7 -4.5 -8.9 -

Latin America and Caribbean -0.9 -11.5 -8.6 -10.8 -5.2 -16.0 -13.3 -11.6 -11.4 -11.3 -11.1 -3.6 -8.9 -5.0 -1.9 -8.2 -7.6 -

Middle East and North Africa -5.1 -26.3 -15.4 -8.1 - -30.4 -32.5 -25.2 -24.2 -22.1 -22.7 - - - - - - -

South Asia 4.0 -4.8 -10.8 10.7 4.6 2.2 -13.2 -1.6 -8.9 -5.3 -3.0 4.2 -0.2 0.9 -0.3 -1.3 - -

Sub-Saharan Africa -8.4 -30.6 -33.1 -16.6 -44.3 -32.9 -35.6 -32.1 -32.2 -33.0 -29.0 -26.1 -25.9 - - - - -

Imports, Nominal, US$, sa

World 1.1 -12.6 -5.0 -7.1 -14.2 -12.7 -15.0 -13.3 -10.4 -11.2 -11.8 -5.3 -7.5 -6.0 -2.5 -5.3 -9.6 -

Advanced Economies 2.1 -12.5 -4.2 -7.4 -9.5 -12.2 -13.2 -12.0 -8.9 -11.3 -9.7 -2.7 -6.7 -4.1 -2.0 -4.8 -8.4 -

Emerging Market and Developing Economies

-0.5 -12.8 -6.4 -6.6 -21.9 -13.6 -18.1 -15.6 -12.9 -11.0 -15.2 -9.6 -8.7 -9.1 -3.3 -5.9 -11.5 -

Commodity-exporting EMDE -2.7 -15.0 -10.7 -12.4 -17.8 -15.5 -19.0 -16.9 -16.1 -17.3 -18.4 -15.4 -13.6 -13.7 -9.8 -8.7 - -

Other EMDE 0.9 -11.6 -3.9 -3.4 -25.2 -12.4 -17.6 -14.8 -11.1 -7.5 -13.3 -6.8 -6.5 -7.6 -0.9 -5.3 -11.2 3.1

East Asia and Pacific -0.6 -13.2 -5.1 -1.1 -29.8 -14.7 -19.5 -18.2 -8.9 -8.6 -16.9 -11.2 -5.4 -8.4 0.6 -6.5 -10.8 6.2

Europe and Central Asia -3.7 -20.7 -7.8 -9.0 1.9 -19.9 -21.2 -19.0 -18.5 -18.0 -15.0 -5.1 -3.8 -3.4 -1.8 0.5 -10.1 -

Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -9.9 -4.0 -15.4 -15.9 -11.4 -12.5 -12.6 -11.0 -15.6 -16.3 -9.8 -14.6 -10.0 -6.3 -8.9 -16.0 -

Middle East and North Africa 3.0 -6.3 -8.8 -5.1 - -8.1 -14.1 -5.5 -11.9 -9.1 -13.0 - - - - - - -

South Asia 1.1 -13.3 -2.1 -13.1 -30.3 -11.4 -24.5 -18.1 -25.2 -3.4 -6.8 -3.6 -19.0 -18.9 -9.5 -7.2 -14.6 -10.3

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6 -7.3 -17.7 -9.5 - -8.6 -11.6 -13.9 -9.7 -11.9 -18.7 - - - - - - -

International Reserves, US$1

World -1.3 -5.8 -2.1 -2.7 0.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 -1.6 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.1 0.6 -0.5 0.4 0.2 -

Advanced Economies 0.2 2.2 0.4 -0.6 2.3 0.4 0.6 -0.3 -1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.2 -

Emerging Market and Developing Economies

-2.0 -10.0 -3.4 -3.9 -1.2 -1.5 -1.0 0.1 -2.0 -2.0 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 0.6 -0.7 0.4 0.1 -

Commodity-exporting EMDE -6.5 - -2.2 - - -0.6 -0.9 - - - - - - - - - - -

Other EMDE 0.7 -10.2 -4.0 -4.4 -1.7 -1.9 -1.0 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.2 -0.2 0.8 0.6 -0.7 0.5 0.0 -0.2

East Asia and Pacific 0.2 -12.5 -4.9 -4.4 -2.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -0.3 0.6 0.3 -1.0 0.7 0.0 -0.4

Europe and Central Asia -16.8 -5.4 1.3 -3.6 4.3 1.7 0.5 -0.2 -1.9 -1.5 0.8 2.0 1.5 1.6 -0.1 1.4 0.3 0.5

Latin America and Caribbean 0.2 -5.6 -2.7 -2.4 0.7 -0.8 -1.5 -0.9 -1.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.9 1.6 -1.0 -0.1 1.9 -0.2

Middle East and North Africa -2.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

South Asia 11.3 11.5 -0.8 1.1 0.9 -0.3 0.0 0.9 -0.4 0.7 -1.1 -0.3 2.3 2.0 -0.8 0.5 1.2 0.6

Sub-Saharan Africa -10.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

10

September 2016

2015 2016 2016 MRV 1

2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Interest rates and LIBOR (percent)

U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.37 0.37 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40

ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.31 0.41 0.62 0.64 0.32 0.37 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.81 0.86

EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.03 -0.09 -0.19 -0.26 -0.05 -0.09 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 -0.23 -0.25 -0.26 -0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.30

US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.20 2.18 1.92 1.75 2.04 2.26 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.79 1.80 1.64 1.48 1.56 1.71

German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.70 0.56 0.32 0.12 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.01 -0.09 -0.07 0.02

Spreads (basis points)

JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 426 423 431 478 419 437 413 442 485 507 443 421 418 418 387 367 369

Asia 206 232 233 245 264 227 246 235 253 268 282 243 224 223 233 210 190 194

Europe 287 348 345 311 339 305 332 294 308 338 359 319 308 305 303 290 282 276

Latin America & Caribbean 407 559 560 577 645 551 582 553 595 662 687 588 559 552 541 496 473 474

Middle East 388 471 447 506 555 538 502 503 512 542 580 545 539 530 545 540 492 502

Africa 323 449 425 509 626 548 490 482 555 644 661 573 546 552 546 494 448 451

Stock Indices (end of period)

Global (MSCI) 417 399 382 399 395 399 411 407 399 375 372 395 403 403 399 414 417 413

Advanced Economies ($ Index) 1710 1663 1582 1663 1638 1653 1706 1694 1663 1562 1547 1638 1671 1675 1653 1713 1720 1703

United States (S&P 500) 2059 2044 1920 2044 2051 2099 2079 2080 2044 1940 1932 2051 2065 2097 2099 2170 2171 2139

Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1401 1474 1405 1474 1352 1339 1523 1558 1474 1381 1347 1352 1379 1399 1339 1376 1390 1379

Japan (Nikkei 225) 16292 16292 17388 18817 16555 15576 19083 19921 18817 17518 15989 16555 16407 17235 15576 16556 16887 16519

Emerging Market and

Developing Economies (MSCI) 956 794 792 794 821 834 848 814 794 742 740 821 840 807 834 879 894 898

EM Asia 457 404 391 404 404 407 422 408 404 374 369 404 405 400 407 431 442 446

EM Europe 297 244 259 244 272 265 273 263 244 237 241 272 288 268 265 264 269 272

EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 226 211 230 225 235 222 211 202 208 230 243 225 225 227 232 232

EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1895 1830 2121 2269 2007 1919 1830 1744 1804 2121 2292 2038 2269 2359 2402 2324

Exchange Rates (LCU / USD)

Advanced Economies

Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.90

Japan 105.89 121.00 122.06 121.41 115.23 107.96 120.01 122.61 121.62 118.37 114.44 112.87 109.57 108.97 105.34 104.09 101.31 101.62

Emerging and Developing Economies

Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.55 3.84 3.91 3.51 3.88 3.78 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.70 3.56 3.54 3.42 3.28 3.21 3.26

China 6.16 6.29 6.31 6.39 6.54 6.53 6.35 6.37 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.51 6.48 6.53 6.59 6.68 6.65 6.67

Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.82 7.88 8.04 8.87 7.91 7.91 7.83 7.83 7.82 8.47 8.87 8.86 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.88

India 61.03 64.14 64.97 65.91 67.50 66.91 65.04 66.15 66.54 67.31 68.22 66.95 66.49 66.93 67.29 67.18 66.91 67.02

Russia 38.58 61.34 63.62 66.17 74.84 65.84 63.31 65.01 70.19 77.36 77.23 69.93 66.54 65.96 65.01 64.43 64.93 64.75

South Africa 10.85 12.77 13.03 14.22 15.83 15.01 13.48 14.14 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.39 14.62 15.36 15.05 14.40 13.79 13.91

Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate

(index) 102.2 114.7 116.2 118.1 120.3 117.5 116.4 118.3 119.4 121.8 120.7 118.4 116.5 117.8 118.2 118.9 117.8 119.2

(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period )

Table E: Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2016 2015 MRV 1

2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Energy 2 118 65 63 54 43 56 60 55 48 40 41 47 51 57 59 57 58 59

Non-energy 2 97 82 81 78 76 81 79 77 76 75 76 78 80 81 83 82 82 82

Agriculture 2 103 89 88 86 85 91 87 86 85 84 84 86 88 91 94 92 91 91

Metals and minerals 2 88 68 65 60 59 62 64 59 57 56 59 62 63 61 61 65 65 61

Memo items:

Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 96 51 48 42 33 45 47 43 37 30 31 37 41 46 48 44 45 44

Gold ($/toz) 1266 1161 1124 1107 1181 1260 1159 1086 1076 1098 1200 1245 1242 1261 1276 1337 1340 1323

Baltic Dry Index 1103 711 975 627 363 613 790 582 510 391 307 390 608 623 608 707 675 865