4. GENERAL CONTEXT INDICATORS

SOCIETY AT A GLANCE 2011: OECD SOCIAL INDICATORS © OECD 201144

2. Fertility

The total fertility rate indicates the number of children anaverage woman has if she were to experience the exactage-specific fertility throughout her life. Allowing for

some mortality during infancy and childhood, the popula-

tion is replaced at a total fertility rate of a little over two.

In 2009, fertility was well below replacement level inmost countries, averaging 1.74 across the OECD (Panel A,GE2.1). The highest rate was in Israel, where women

had 0.74 more children than the next highest fertility coun-

try, Iceland. In addition to Israel and Iceland, New Zealand

and Turkey had above replacement fertility (2.1 children

per woman). Anglophone and Nordic countries were typi-

cally at the higher fertility end, while continental Europe

(France is the one major exception) filled out the low

fertility end, along with Japan. Fertility rates were notably

low in Korea, with two parents replacing themselves in the

next generation by little more than one child.

Fertility generally declined across the OECD countries overthe last 25 years (Panel B, GE2.1). The declining trend arose

out of postponement of family formation and a decrease in

desired family size. Rising female education and employ-

ment, insufficient support to families juggling work and

children, a need to generate a secure job and income, or

growing housing problems may have all also played a role.

Falls were especially pronounced – by around two children

per woman on average – in Turkey and Mexico. Falls of one

child per women were also experienced in Poland and Japan.

The same period also saw modest rises in fertility rates

in 14 OECD countries, including five Nordics and five

Anglophone countries, and the contiguous nations France,

Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. The largest rises

were in Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands. These rises

amounted to between a third and one half of an extra child

on average per woman.

There was a moderate recovery in average fertility ratesbetween 2000 and 2009. However, trends have been quite

heterogeneous (GE2.2). Fertility rates continued to decline

or remained stable in Austria, Japan, Hungary, Korea,

Portugal and Switzerland – all low fertility countries.

Fertility was more likely to rebound in countries with

higher starting fertility rates, even recovering over replace-

ment level in New Zealand and Iceland. This fertility

rebound stalled in many OECD countries in 2009, possibly

as a consequence of the economic crisis.

Further reading

OECD (2010), OECD Family Database, Indicator SF2.1, “Fertility

Rates”, www.oecd.org/els/social/family/database.

Figure note

Figure GE2.1: 2008 for Chile, 2007 for Canada.

Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.

Definition and measurement

The total fertility rate is the number of children that

would be born to each woman at the end of her

childbearing years if the likelihood of her giving birth

to children at each age was the currently prevailing

age-specific fertility rates. It is computed by summing

up the age-specific fertility rates defined over five-

yearly intervals. Assuming no net migration and

unchanged mortality, total fertility rate of 2.1 children

per woman (“replacement”) ensures broad population

stability. Data typically come from civil population

registers or other administrative records. These are

harmonised according to United Nations and Eurostat

recommendations. The exception is Turkey, where

fertility data are survey-based.

4. GENERAL CONTEXT INDICATORS

SOCIETY AT A GLANCE 2011: OECD SOCIAL INDICATORS © OECD 2011 45

2. Fertility

GE2.1. Fertility rates across the OECD are typically below replacement level with a moderate decline over the last generation

GE2.2. Countries with higher fertility rates have had a bigger recent rebound

Source: National statistical offices and World Development Indicators (http://data.worldbank.org) for China, India and Indonesia.

1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932381703

3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 0.5

2.96

2.22

2.14

2.12

2.08

2.07

2.01

2.00

1.99

1.98

1.94

1.94

1.90

1.86

1.84

1.83

1.79

1.74

1.66

1.63

1.59

1.53

1.53

1.50

1.49

1.41

1.41

1.40

1.40

1.39

1.37

1.36

1.33

1.32

1.15

2.7

2.4

2.2

1.9

1.8

1.5

-0.17

0.14

0.21

-1.81

-2.16

-0.52

0.20

-0.66

0.18

0.32

0.29

0.17

0.06

0.16

0.44

0.29

0.30

-0.24

0.03

-0.54

0.17

-0.29

-0.03

-0.47

-0.84

-0.07

-0.33

-0.97

-0.13

-0.99

-0.03

-0.40

-0.58

-0.59

-1.6

-1.5

-1.7

-1.9

-0.9

-0.5

Panel A. Total fertility rate in 2009 ( )(number of children per women)

Panel B. Difference in TFR (number of children per women)between 1984 and 2009

IsraelIceland

New ZealandTurkeyMexicoIreland

United States

ChileFranceNorwaySweden

United KingdomAustraliaFinland

DenmarkBelgium

Netherlands

OECDCanadaEstonia

LuxembourgSloveniaGreece

SwitzerlandCzech RepublicSlovak Republic

ItalySpain

PolandAustriaJapan

GermanyHungaryPortugal

Korea

IndiaSouth Africa

IndonesiaBrazilChina

Russian Federation

KOR PRT HUN JPN AUT CHE GBR NOR FRA USA NZL ISL

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

2009 (!) 2000

Panel A. Lower fertility countries Panel B. Higher fertility countriesTFR TFR

OECD OECD

Replacement level of 2.1 Replacement level of 2.1