3Q06 TPI Index Presentation FINAL
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Transcript of 3Q06 TPI Index Presentation FINAL
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Co ri ht 2006 All Ri hts Reserved Technolo Partners International, Inc. 1
The TPI Index
A N I N F O R M E D V I E W O FT H E S T A T E O F T H EG L O B A L C O M M E R C I A LO U T S O U R C I N G M A R K E T
October 12, 2006
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Welcome
TPI Presenters
Peter Allen Partner & Managing Director, Market Development
Paul Schmidt Partner & Practice Leader, Global Service Delivery
TPI Index Format
Duncan Aitchison Partner & Managing Director, EMEA and Asia Pacific
Questions & Answers Following TPI Market Metrics and Outlook
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TPI Qualifications
16th quarterly TPI IndexConference Call
Proven track record of accuracy on previous TPI Index calls
One of the better barometers of market trends
Credible commentary
Since 2000, TPI has advised on 25 percent of the TCVawarded in the broader market
Observations here are based on our contract flow
Also based on facts gathered from other reliable
sources
Propriety
For confidentiality reasons, we will avoid discussingspecific clients and active sourcing transactions
However, the data presented provide a sense of
recent trends and future outlook
For more information Detailed metrics available in TPI Index Insider
Slides are available at www.tpi.net
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HeadlinesChanges in the Global Outsourcing Industry for 3Q06
17.0 17.3
13.4
84.7 81.9
55.3
26.6
3Q05 2Q06 3Q06 2004 2005 2006
Unlikely that 4Q TCV Will Push Total Award ValueBeyond 2005 Level of Nearly $82B
3Q06 Performancewas down
both Y/Y and Q/Q
Almost $22B of Incremental Scope Would Need to beAwarded in 4Q06 to Match 2005s Total Value
65.9 67.075.6
61.2
39.2
22.0
2002Incremental
Scope
2003Incremental
Scope
2004Incremental
Scope
2005Incremental
Scope
2006Incremental
Scope
8.76 9.56 9.47 9.76
2003 YTD 2004 YTD 2005 YTD 2006 YTD
Annualized Bookings Reveals a Growing Market Not One in Decline
TCV of contracts ($B)
Big Six Reverses Downward Trend as India-basedProviders Gain Share off of a Small Base
71%
6%
46%
23%
47%
20%
52%
15%
1.4% 1.1% 3.5% 4.3%
Big Six Big Five Europe India-based Providers
FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 2006 YTDBased on TCV
4Q06TCV
Neededto
AchieveFlat Y/YGrowth
TCV of contracts ($B)
Annualized Contract Value ($B)
TCV
DurationACV =
4Q06IncrementalTCV Neededto Achieve
Flat Y/YGrowth
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Industrywide Contracts With TCV > $1B:Q/Q Comparison
4.3
11.810.7
8.6
5.7
7.7
4.8
10.8
9.2
5.8
3.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q053Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mega-Deal TrendsWeakest Quarter for Mega-Deal TCV
Since the Second Quarter of 2002
Industrywide TCV ($B) Total Industrywide Contracts (#)
TCV($B)
# ofcontracts
TPI Pipeline: Anticipated Award Value > $1B:Q/Q Comparison
13.0
17.3
12.6 11.5 10.612.9
8.8 10.211.7
2.6 2.90
4
8
12
16
20
1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
Industrywide Contracts > $1B:YTD (Through Sept. 30) Y/Y Comparison
18.8 17.921.7
26.8
18.2 18.5
0
7
14
21
28
35
2001 YTD 2002 YTD 2003 YTD 2004 YTD 2005 YTD 2006 YTD
Industrywide TCV ($B)
8Contracts
10Contracts
13Contracts
15Contracts
10Contracts
12Contracts
Industrywide TCV ($B)
# of Active Transactions Listed Above Each BarIn parentheses
(6)
(9)
(6)(5)
(7)
(7)
(5)
(6)(7)
(2)
None of theMega-Deals
awarded thisquarter weresigned by
Big SixProviders
(2)
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Industrywide Contracts With TCV > $50M:Q/Q Comparison
18.0
24.4
19.7
22.5
19.2
20.1
17.0
25.6 24.7
17.3
13.4
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
1Q042Q04 3Q044Q04 1Q052Q053Q05 4Q051Q062Q063Q06
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Broader Market TrendsWeakest Quarter for TCV Since the Third Quarter of 2002
Industrywide TCV ($B) Total Industrywide Contracts (#)
TCV($B)
# ofcontracts
Industrywide Contracts > $50M:YTD (Through Sept. 30) Y/Y Comparison
45.4 51.756.5 62.1 56.3 55.3
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
2001 YTD 2002 YTD 2003 YTD 2004 YTD 2005 YTD 2006 YTD
Industrywide TCV ($B)
132Contracts
185Contracts
191Contracts
220
Contracts241
Contracts 249Contracts
YTD TCV is down 5% from the
trailing three-year average of$58.3B
YTD TCV is down 5% from the
trailing three-year average of$58.3B
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Broader Market TrendsYTD, Restructurings Continue to Impact Broader Market;
Not as Many Restructurings were Signed in the Third Quarter
Total Contract Value: Industrywide ContractsWith TCV > $50M:
85% 84% 84% 89%75% 71%
15% 16% 16% 11% 25% 29%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD
Incremental Value % Restructuring Value %
# of Contracts: Industrywide Contracts
With TCV > $50M:
87%78% 85% 86% 81% 79%
13%22% 15% 14% 19% 21%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD
Incremental Volume % Restructuring Volume %
Industrywide Contracts > $50M Without Restructuring:Q/Q Comparison
Since 2004, about 89% of thetime, incumbents retain the
business
Since 2004, about 89% of thetime, incumbents retain the
business
16.7
22.4
16.3
20.2
16.113.0 11.7
20.3
16.1
11.3 11.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1Q042Q04 3Q044Q04 1Q052Q053Q05 4Q051Q062Q063Q06
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Industrywide TCV ($B) Total Industrywide Contracts (#)
TCV($B)
# ofcontracts
3Q06 Restructuring Metrics:10% of the number of deals
12% of the TCV Awarded
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Broader Market TrendsSourcing Engagements Often Need to be Renewed to Re-align
Them with Shifting Business Objectives and Market Conditions
Wholly terminated
Renewed with incumbent provider
Scope Expansion
Active, no significant restructuring
Other
29(45%)
9(14%)
10(15.5%)
4(6%)
12(19%)
Status of 2000's Large Contract Awards
64 deals valued at greater than $250M in TCV
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Broader Market Trends2006 May be Challenged to Reach 2005s TCV Level
Industrywide Contracts With TCV > $50M:Q4 Comparison
45.4 51.756.5 62.1 56.3 55.3
20.926.5 23.3
22.5 25.6 23.8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
TCV Through 3Q 4Q TCVTCV ofcontracts
($B)
$23.8B
representsthe 5 year
4Q Avg.
Factors weighing against realizing past fourth-quarter performance
Continued decrease in average TCV
Continued decrease in contract duration
Relatively low level of mega-deal activity
Industrywide Contracts With TCV > $50M:Incremental Scope - Q4 Comparison
40.4 42.350.0 55.3
40.8 39.2
16.123.6
17.020.2
20.3 19.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
TCV Through 3Q 4Q TCVTCV ofcontracts
($B)
$19.5Brepresentsthe 5 year
4Q Avg.
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Broader Market TrendsAverage TCV has Steadily Declined Since 2001
Average TCV:Industrywide Contracts > $50M
Average TCV:Industrywide Contracts > $50M
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD
All Contracts ITO BPO
TCV ($M)
# of Contracts: Industrywide Contracts
With TCV > $50M:
32% 34% 34%
41% 41% 46%
24%33% 28%
26% 31%25%
35%27% 31% 26%
23% 24%
8% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD
$50-$99M $100M-$199M $200-$999M > $1B
# of Contracts: Industrywide Contracts
With TCV > $50M:
68% 69% 75%82% 77% 82%
32% 31% 25%18% 23% 19%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD
% of Single Process Contracts % of Full ITO/BPO Multi-Proc. Contracts
Since 2000, an average of 38%
of all deals fall in the$50M-$99M TCV range
Since 2000, an average of 38%
of all deals fall in the$50M-$99M TCV range
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Broader Market TrendsAverage Contract Duration has Steadily Declined Since 2001
Average Contract Duration:Industrywide Contracts > $50M
Average Contract Duration:Industrywide Contracts > $50M
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD
All Contracts IT Contracts BPO Contracts
# of years
Average Contract Duration:Industrywide Contracts > $50M
Average Contract Duration:Industrywide Contracts > $50M
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD
Restructurings Non-Restructurings
# of years
Second-generation outsourcing
relationships do not require thesame level of employee or assettransfer, or transformation of thebusiness operations, as requiredby a first-generation agreement
Second-generation outsourcing
relationships do not require thesame level of employee or assettransfer, or transformation of thebusiness operations, as requiredby a first-generation agreement
# of Contracts: Industrywide Contracts
With TCV > $50M:
30% 27% 22% 26% 18%16% 12%
70% 73% 78% 74% 82% 84% 88%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
YTD
% of contracts with > 10-year terms % of all other contracts
The 5-year contract accounts for 32% of Contracts Signed YTD
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Methods of Market AnalysisRemoving Effect of Declining Contract Durations
Provides a New Form of Market Analysis
Market Analysis Methods for Broader Market
The Annualized Contract Value (ACV) Method removes the element of the number of years
A $1B contract with a 10-year duration its ACV is $100M
A $500M contract with a 5-year duration its ACV is $100M
Using this method of analysis, the averageAnnual Contract Value (ACV) would be treated the same
Using this method of analysis, the average
Annual Contract Value (ACV) would be treated the same
Total ContractValue (TCV)
Method
AnnualizedContract Value(ACV) Method
AnnualizedRevenueAnalysis
Features the aggregateTotal Contract Value in theyear in which it is signed
Aggregates the value of allcontracts divided by theirdurations in the year inwhich they were signed
Annualized revenues arethose made available toservice providers from
contracts signed not onlythis year, but in prior years
Removes the effect of declining contract durations
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32.141.7
53.163.4
45.4 51.756.5 62.1 56.3 55.3
17.4
17.721.7
20.7
20.9 26.5
23.322.5
25.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Broader Market TrendsMore Annualized Contract Value (ACV)
has been Signed than in Any Year since 1997
Industrywide Contracts > $50M: Traditional Total Contract Value (TCV) Method
Industrywide TCV Through September 30 ($B) Industrywide TCV for 4Q ($B)
4.06.2
7.8 8.16.5
8.0 8.89.6 9.5 9.81.5
2.8
2.7 2.6
3.0
3.83.9 2.9
4.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Industrywide Contracts > $50M: New Annualized Contract Value (ACV) Method
Industrywide Annualized Contract Value Through September 30 ($B) Industrywide Annualized Contract Value for 4Q ($B)
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Broader Market TrendsLarge Deals are not Disappearing, but Declining Contract
Durations are Causing Mega-Deals to not Appear as Frequently
19 20 8 9 17 22 24 27 42 23
42
7571
87 77
103118
134
161
124
16
3940
33 35
61
64
74
61
62
12
2233 25
37
33
38
33
41
16
16
16 26 2824
27
28
31
29
24
0
100
200
300
400
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD
0-$9M $10-$24M $25M-$49M $50M-$99M $100M+
Industrywide Contracts > $50M: Distribution of Number of Contracts By ACV
Examined by ACV, the number of mega-relationships(> $100M/year) fall strikingly within the same range,from 24 to 31 (since 1999)
The nine-year average of 25 is at hand thisyear with one quarter still remaining
# of contracts
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Annualized RevenueAnnualized Revenue Will Decrease Slightly in 2006,
Driven by Some Contract Termination
13.8 18.023.7 29.3
37.144.8 50.7
57.1 61.965.3 69.2 68.5
0
20
40
60
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006e*
Annualized Revenue for Industrywide Contracts > $50M: Y/Y Comparison
Revenue ($B)
3 Yr CAGR: 2.4%5 Yr CAGR: 4.6%
Down 1.0% Y/Y
Total Contract
Value (TCV)Method
AnnualizedContract
Value (ACV)Method
Annualized
RevenueAnalysis
Scorecard: Market Analysis Methods for Broader Market
Even with astrong 4Q, totalbookings will
probably fallshort of 2005levels thesecond straightY/Y decline
Moreannualizedbooking value
is coming online up to thispoint each yearsince 2001 five straightY/Y increases
Annualizedrevenue willdecrease
slightly in2006 about1% Y/Y as aresult of somecontractterminations
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BPO Market TrendsMore BPO Contracts Signed in 3Q than in any Other Quarter;
Most BPO Contracts Coming to Market are Single-Process
Industrywide BPO Contracts With TCV > $25M:Q/Q Comparison
8.210.4
4.46.1
3.75.7 5.3
8.67.0
4.2 4.5
0
4
8
12
1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
0
20
40
60
80
Industrywide TCV ($B) Total Industrywide Contracts (#)
TCV($B)
# ofcontracts
Market Share of Industrywide BPO ContractsWith TCV > $25M: TCV of Deals
2006 YTD Industrywide BPO ContractsWith TCV > $25M: TCV of Deals
Others42%
Xchanging
3%
RR Donnelly
3%
Xansa
3%Capita
3%
Indian SP
3%
Big 5 Europe
3%
Big 635%
Hewitt
5%
63%
35%
2%
60%
34%
6%
62%
30%
8%
49% 46%
5%
Americas EMEA Asia/Pacific
Full Year 2003 Full Year 2004 Full Year 2005 2006 YTD
5.9
1.9
5.4
2.9
1.31.7
7.0
5.8
0.1
3.9
5.7
2.0
1.0
2.8
1.6
0.7
4.8
3.3
1.3 1.21.6
CRM Document
Mgmt
FSO HRO F&A Procure Multi-Proc
Full Year 2004 Full Year 2005 2006 YTD
BPO Contracts > $25M:TCV ($B) Comparison by Process
No other
ServiceProviderin OthersCategory hasmore than2.5% TCVshare
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Service-Provider Data
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Service Provider Market ShareBig Six Seeing Share Gains in Broader Market
Due to Strength in IT Infrastructure Market
Big Five Europe Market Share of IndustrywideContracts: TCV of Deals
Big Six Market Share of Industrywide Contracts:TCV of Deals
71%
81%
35%
46%49%
37%
47% 49%
40%
52%57%
35%
Broader Market > $50M ITO > $50M BPO > $25M
Full Year 2003 Full Year 2004 Full Year 2005 2006 YTD
6% 7%2%
23%26%
15%20%
26%
3%
15%18%
3%
Broader Market > $50M ITO > $50M BPO > $25M
Full Year 2003 Full Year 2004 Full Year 2005 2006 YTD
Of the 38 contracts awarded to the BigFive Europe so far in 2006, only eighthave been outside of Europe
Of the 38 contracts awarded to the Big
Five Europe so far in 2006, only eighthave been outside of Europe
Big Six is seeing share gains due toincreasing award activity in ITInfrastructure market
Big Six is seeing share gains due to
increasing award activity in ITInfrastructure market
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Service Provider Market ShareIndia-based Providers Increase Market Share Off of a Small Base;Framework Agreements Enable Penetrate and Radiate Approach
India-Based Service Providers Market Shareof Industrywide Contracts: TCV of Deals
1%
12%
0%3%
1%
6%
0%3%
17%
1%
6%
26%
3%4%3.5%
4.3%
Broader Market >
$50M
ADM > $50M Infras tructure >
$50M
BPO > $25M
Full Year 2003 Full Year 2004 Full Year 2005 2006 YTD
Multi-national service providers are
becoming more aggressive (especiallyin the ADM space) in competing forsmaller initial deals that may have longer-term upside
Asclients
mature with
sourcing globaldelivery, they tend
to reassess this strategyas the dollar value of their
spend on offshore servicesincreases significantly . . .
Companies are likely to
engage Service Providerson a limited multi-sourcedapproach
Companies are likely to restructure some oftheir spend with offshore Service Providersto more traditional multi-year, SLA-based,risk-sharing arrangements
Companies are likely to reorganizetheir internal operations to bettermanage these relationships
Schedule 1
Schedule 2
Schedule 3
Schedule 4
Schedule 5
Schedule 6
Schedule 7
Committed WorkCommitted Work
Service Orders:To pursue incrementalwork/processes
Service Orders:To pursue incrementalwork/processes
Master Service Agreement
Service Providers gain
experience and an insidetrack
Clients gain flexibility andlimited financial obligationto providers
Service Providers gain
experience and an insidetrack
Clients gain flexibility andlimited financial obligation
to providers
Schedule 8
Schedule n
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TPI Pipeline & Metrics
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Pipeline Changes and Forward-Looking ProjectionsAlmost $14.5B in Pipeline Value;
$10.5B up for Award in Next Three Months
Projected Award Timeline of Current Pipeline ($B) Seven different service providers
were competing for both ITO and
BPO transactions
Seven different service providers
were competing for both ITO and
BPO transactions
16.3320.72
17.05 16.97
22.64
17.3314.49
1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
TPI Active Pipeline ($B)
We are currently advising on84 active transactions
3.70
8.01
6.145.27
8.25
5.70 5.93
1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
TPI Pipeline ($B) Added: Q/Q Comparison
6.40
1.42
4.09
2.18
0.36
4Q06 1Q07 2Q07
Total Restructuring Pipeline: $6.27B
Restructuring TCV ($B)
New Incremental TCV ($B)
More than 65% of new pipelineadded is Financial-Services-related
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TPI Pipeline by Service ProviderMost Service Provider Pipeline Values Decline;
CSC and Big Five Europe Post Gains in Pipeline Value
90 Active Transactions June 30, 200690 Active Transactions June 30, 2006
1
2
2
1
5
2
0
3
# ofRestruct.
0
1
2
1
4
0
1
2
# of SoleSourceDeals
6
0
5
2
5
0
3
10
# of BPODeals
0
0
2
0
2
0
0
1
# of Mega-Deals
13.2%$2.283B13.3%12India-Based SP
6.8%$1.172B7.8%7Big 5 Europe
42.8%$7.418B24.4%22IBM
11.4%$1.972B5.6%5HP
34.8%$6.027B18.9%17EDS
4.8%$0.824B6.7%6CSC
4.8%$0.824B8.9%8ACS
27.8%$4.818B18.9%17Accenture
% of TPIPipeline
Value
PipelineValue
% of TPIDeals
# ofTrans
84 Active Transactions September 30, 200684 Active Transactions September 30, 2006
0
3
6
1
5
50
1
# ofRestruct.
1
1
4
0
2
10
1
# of SoleSourceDeals
8
1
4
1
2
02
6
# of BPODeals
0
1
0
1
1
00
0
# of Mega-Deals
5.4%$0.776B14.3%12India-Based SP
15.8%$2.292B9.5%8Big 5 Europe
36.9%$5.342B26.2%22IBM
10.7%$1.550B4.8%4HP
27.8%$4.025B14.3%12EDS
13.4%$1.945B11.9%10CSC2.1%$0.302B2.4%2ACS
11.3%$1.633B14.3%12Accenture
% of TPIPipeline
Value
PipelineValue
% of TPIDeals
# ofTrans
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TPIs Conclusion on Market Trends
2006 TCV Soft third quarter might make it difficult for the 2006 TCV
to meet or surpass 2005 values
Restructurings Restructurings continue to influence the Broader Market
Annualized ContractValue (ACV)
Alternative evaluation by Annualized Contract Value(ACV) reveals that the Broader Market is growing Y/Y
Market share India-based providers gained market share off of a small
base and currently possess a large share of the ADMmarket value
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QUESTIONS