391 KO Misc Day 1 Updates

8/14/2019 391 KO Misc Day 1 Updates

1/37

DDI 2008 1KO Misc

KO misc day 1

KO misc day 1.................................................................................................................................................................12AC T card incentives..................................................................................................................................................2T Incentives Arent to Government..............................................................................................................................3Political Capital HighCampaigning..............................................................................................................................4

Political Capital HighNational Security........................................................................................................................5Political Capital LowCongress Reluctant.....................................................................................................................6Political Capital LowCorruption...................................................................................................................................7Political Capital LowEconomy.....................................................................................................................................8Political Capital LowIran..............................................................................................................................................9Political Capital LowIraq/Afghanistan War................................................................................................................10Political Capital LowPartisan Politics.........................................................................................................................11CFTA U overwhelms..................................................................................................................................................12 No CFTA.......................................................................................................................................................................13Yes CFTA......................................................................................................................................................................14Yes fiscal discipline.......................................................................................................................................................15 No fiscal discipline........................................................................................................................................................16 No fiscal discipline........................................................................................................................................................17

IRRESPONSIBILITY INEVITABLE..........................................................................................................................18A2: F-22 sales to Japan good........................................................................................................................................19A2: F-22 sales to Japan good........................................................................................................................................20Relations Key to Heg....................................................................................................................................................21Relations Key to Econ...................................................................................................................................................22

Incentivesindustry development..............................................................................................................................23MASS TRANSIT SPENDING LINKS.........................................................................................................................24Reprocessing spending links.........................................................................................................................................25A2: Cali econ................................................................................................................................................................26Private research solves nuclear.....................................................................................................................................27States CP solves GNEP.................................................................................................................................................28A2: GNEP.....................................................................................................................................................................29

War racism...............................................................................................................................................................30

Obama Wins..................................................................................................................................................................31Obama Good space....................................................................................................................................................34McCain avoids Bush.....................................................................................................................................................35McCain Wins.................................................................................................................................................................36Polls Fail.......................................................................................................................................................................37


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DDI 2008 2KO Misc

2AC T card incentives

Incentives are broad. They include:positive and negativedirect and indirecteconomic and non-economic

and can target either producers OR consumersAny definition which excludes these eradicates the meaning of the term

Kirsten Probst, and Annette von Lossau, Gesellschaft fr Technische Zusammenarbeit, Agro-biodiversityconservation incentives, SUBJECT: Incentives for the sustainable use and conservation of agrobiodiversity,October 21, 2003, http://www.nbu.ac.uk/biota/Archive_Genetic/4914.htm

Participants in a workshop on incentive measures on sustainable use and conservation of agrobiodiversity inLusaka, 2001, defined a framework for analysis of incentives and incentive measures which differentiatesbetween positive and negative incentives, direct and indirect incentives, economic and non-economicincentives. Moreover, it was stated that three main stakeholder groups could be distinguished: farmers,consumers, and support system actors (policy makers, extension, research, NGOs, seed producers and otherservice providers). Each of them can both receive incentives and design and implement incentive measuresto motivate and stimulate others. The distinction made between economic and non-economic incentivesdeserves attention because it goes to the heart of the meaning of the word incentive . The significantpositive influence of non-economic incentives should not be underestimated. They involve access toinformation, capacity building and recognition and are relevant to all stakeholders, i.e. farmers, the servicedelivery system, politicians and consumers. Seed and animal fairs with diversity competitions are anillustration of an incentive measure that yields a range of different incentives. The prizes for those farmersthat display most diversity are a crucial incentive. Increased awareness of the existence, beauty andimportance of genetic diversity and the recognition for the custodians of that diversity probably contributes tothe success of such events.


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DDI 2008 3KO Misc

T Incentives Arent to Government

1. We meet Our incentive is not an individual motivating himself

2. We meet Congress provides an incentive to NASA

3. Counter-interpretation Governmental organizations can provide alternative

energy incentives to other governmental organizations:

Energy Trust of Oregon, 2008, Energy Trust Nonprofit/Government Incentives,http://www.energytrust.org/solar/commercial/nonp_gov.php

As a nonprofit/government organization, you have two options for installing a solar electric system on yourproperty. The first option foregoes the federal tax incentives, but gives you long term ownership of thesystem. The second option fully utilizes the tax incentives, but typically requires that you purchase the solarelectricity from a third party system owner instead of owning the system yourself. Your choice will dependon your financial situation and your long term goals.

4. Our interpretation is best

A. Most predictable and real world Energy Trust of Oregon shows this is how

government alternative energy incentives work RIGHT NOW

B. Limits They overlimit and exclude all governmental organizations we

would always lose to the states counterplan

C. Ground Neg gains ground for agent counterplans and PICs out of

organizations such as NASA

D. Education Allows in-depth research of all parts of the USFG

5. Reasonability good

A. No ground loss they still can read whatever they want in the 1NC

6. T is not a voter its a must-win for the aff, only in-round abuse justifies a ballot


4/37

DDI 2008 4KO Misc

Political Capital HighCampaigning

Bush still strong in some areas campaigning proves

St. Louis Dispatch. 07/26/2008. Campaign digest.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/politics/story/8CB9815E91BADA498625749200155225?OpenDocument

[Takumi Murayama]

President George W. Bush's popularity at the national level has fallen to record lows, but he remains astrong draw in some areas and continues to go to such places to raise money for Republicans.On Friday, Bush headlined a fundraiser for Republican Aaron Schockin his race for the House seat beingvacated by longtime GOP Rep. Ray LaHood.


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DDI 2008 5KO Misc

Political Capital HighNational Security

Bush has political capital national security proves

Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Congress reporter, AP. 08/03/2008. Analysis: Democrats exact price

from Bush for war. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iYmwCGxlASIEZMxmb0CI5QYdR9-wD92A6FQ80[Takumi Murayama]

Bush showed that even an unpopular, lame-duck president still has sway on national security issues,plus the negotiating leverage that comes with the power to veto legislation."In the eighth year of the presidency and in this environment, Bush's veto was pretty strong," said CandiWolff, his former top legislative aide.

Bush Political Capital High recent national security compromises prove

David Lightman, McClatchy Newspapers. 07/18/2008. Is Bush going out with 'a whimper'?

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/257/story/44730.html [TakumiMurayama]

Bush's achievements, which are fueling the White House PR machine, flow from his recent tendency tocompromise more on national security issues.In recent weeks Bush:Discussed with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki what the White House called "a general time horizon"for cutting the number of American troops in Iraq. Bush said he wasn't endorsing timetables, which he'slong opposed.Took North Korea, which he once labeled part of an "axis of evil," off the list of terrorism sponsors andloosened trade sanctions after it agreed to provide details of its nuclear program.

Won congressional approval of $162 billion for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, though only afterincluding new college aid for military veterans that he'd opposed.

Won his bid to renew the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act , including the controversial provision thatcould allow immunity for telecommunications firms that participated in warrantless wiretaps.Ended the executive ban on drilling off most U.S. coastlines.Tried to reassure the public, in his first news conference since April, that he understood their economic painand was working to ease it.Bush was upbeat recently as he recalled his recent string of accomplishments."People say, 'Aw man, you're running out of time. Nothing's going to happen,' " he said.He rattled off his list, and looked ahead.."What can we get done?" he asked. "We can get good housing legislation done. We can get good energylegislation done. We can get trade bills done. And there's plenty of time to get action with the United

States Congress."


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DDI 2008 6KO Misc

Political Capital LowCongress Reluctant

Bush political capital low Congress reluctant, low approval

David Lightman, McClatchy Newspapers. 07/18/2008. Is Bush going out with 'a whimper'?

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/257/story/44730.html [TakumiMurayama]

WASHINGTON The White House wants the American public to think it's on the rebound , scoringimportant triumphs in Iraq and North Korea and on domestic spying while taking tough stands on oil drillingand relief for homeowners.The White House, the experts and the polls say, however, is wrong. President Bush hasn't begun acomeback."All this is pretty much a lot of noise. He's going out with a whimper," said Erwin Hargrove, presidentialscholar at Vanderbilt University and the author of "The Effective President."Adam Warber, professor of political science at Clemson University, had similar thoughts."It's very difficult for him now. His public approval is so poor, he doesn't really have a lot of politicalcapital," Warber said. Congress is run by Democrats reluctant to give Bush any domestic victories, andhis approval ratings have remained at or near a dismal 30 percent for about a year.


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DDI 2008 7KO Misc

Political Capital LowCorruption

Bush political capital at historic low because of corruption

Rutland Herald. 07/31/2008. A blow to freedom.

http://www.rutlandherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080731/OPINION/807310309/1018

[Takumi Murayama]The press, frequently criticized for its failings, has nevertheless performed admirably in bringing to light thehistoric abuses of the Bush administration, often with the help of confidential sources. Thus, we havelearned about kidnappings and secret prisons, the torture and murder of prisoners, and electronicspying. Only this week a Justice Department report provided details of the political corruption of theJustice Department itself. Lately, Leahy and others have been shining a spotlight on the politicalcorruption of the Environmental Protection Agency.It has been essential for the public to have access to these reports so it could make informed judgments aboutthe conduct of the government. It is no accident that President Bush's popularity is at a historic low andthat his credibility is in tatters. Defenders of the president would blame the press. In reality, the press hasserved its crucial role in a democracy, shining light on the actions of the government in order allow the

people to hold their government accountable.


8/37

DDI 2008 8KO Misc

Political Capital LowEconomy

Bush political capital low Iraq and economy prove

Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, a political website. 08/04/2008. Why McCain

is still in it, LA Times. http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-oe-silver4-2008aug04,0,2423895.story [Takumi

Murayama]

Barack Obama seems to enjoy some enormous advantages over John McCain in their pursuit of the WhiteHouse. Polls show that more than eight out of 10 Americans think the country is headed in the wrongdirection. The Republican brand is in tatters because of the Iraq war and the economic slowdown . AndObama is on pace to raise more money than any presidential candidate in history.

Bush Political Capital Low Economy, Iraq, and Afghanistan prove.

David Lightman, McClatchy Newspapers. 07/18/2008. Is Bush going out with 'a whimper'?http://www.mcclatchydc.com/257/story/44730.html [TakumiMurayama]

Next week, Congress is expected to consider help for faltering housing markets, including a rescue planfor mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Some conservative Republicans are wary, saying the billcould become costly to taxpayers.Passage is expected, but it won't come easily, nor will Bush find his path smooth elsewhere . Analysts saythat unless the president's approval rating jumps unlikely as long as the economy wobbles and theIraq and Afghanistan wars continue his clout is likely to remain diminished.


9/37

DDI 2008 9KO Misc

Political Capital LowIran

Failure to attack Iran proves lack of political capital

Max Hastings, former editor of the Daily Telegraph and the London Evening Standard.

08/04/2008. Negotiating with Iran is maddening, but bombing would be a catastrophe,The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/04/iran.usa[Takumi Murayama]

This is unspectacular, but seems right. The folly of American military posturing towards Iran is itsabsence of credibility. That is to say, no one doubts Bush's executive power to launch an air attack, orsanction the Israelis to do so. However, it is evident to all but the neocons and some dangerous people inJerusalem that such action must fail in its purposes, making matters worse rather than better.


10/37

DDI 2008 10KO Misc

Political Capital LowIraq/Afghanistan War

Iraq has decimated Bushs political capital

AP. 08/03/2008. Editorial Roundup, originally printed in Durango Herald.http://online.indianagazette.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=34368&It

emid=126[Takumi Murayama]

Nevertheless, the willingness to talk is a big change - and one that is welcome, if late. For far too long, theBush administration has left diplomacy on the shelf when dealing with what it defined as "Axis of Evil"countries: Iran, Iraq and North Korea. The most striking example of this anti-diplomacy model, of course, isthe war in Iraq, which has removed that country from the trio, but at a substantial cost - in lives, dollars,time and political capital. Addressing Iraq's perceived nuclear ambitions, it seems now, more than five yearslater, could have benefited from a less heavy-handed approach. That is a hard-learned lesson that willcontinue to burden the United States and Iraq for years to come.

Bush political capital low Iraq and economy prove

Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, a political website. 08/04/2008. Why McCainis still in it, LA Times. http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-oe-silver4-

2008aug04,0,2423895.story [Takumi

Murayama]

Barack Obama seems to enjoy some enormous advantages over John McCain in their pursuit of the WhiteHouse. Polls show that more than eight out of 10 Americans think the country is headed in the wrongdirection. The Republican brand is in tatters because of the Iraq war and the economic slowdown . AndObama is on pace to raise more money than any presidential candidate in history.

Bush Political Capital low Iraq and Katrina prove

Bruce Wolpe, worked on Capitol Hill, has been involved in several Democratic politicalcampaigns, director of corporate affairs for Fairfax Media, publisher of The Sun-Herald.

07/06/2008. This political earthquake will be The Big One, Sydney Morning Herald.http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/this-political-earthquake-will-be-the-big-

one/2008/07/05/1214951117109.html

[Takumi Murayama]While President George Bush hoped that winning the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 represented afundamental realignment to his party, whateverdesigns he had were torn asunder by repeated failures ofcompetence reflected in the blunder in Iraq, the utter squandering of the President's political capital

after his 2004 re-election and paralysis in response to Hurricane Katrina.

Bush Political Capital Low Economy, Iraq, and Afghanistan prove.

David Lightman, McClatchy Newspapers. 07/18/2008. Is Bush going out with 'a whimper'?http://www.mcclatchydc.com/257/story/44730.html [TakumiMurayama]

Next week, Congress is expected to consider help for faltering housing markets, including a rescue planfor mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Some conservative Republicans are wary, saying the billcould become costly to taxpayers.Passage is expected, but it won't come easily, nor will Bush find his path smooth elsewhere . Analysts saythat unless the president's approval rating jumps unlikely as long as the economy wobbles and theIraq and Afghanistan wars continue his clout is likely to remain diminished.


11/37

DDI 2008 11KO Misc

Political Capital LowPartisan Politics

Salvaging Bushs political capital is almost impossible

Buffalo News. 08/03/2008. Justice corrupted.

http://www.buffalonews.com/149/story/405958.html [Takumi Murayama]Think about that. The administration that has spared no effort to frighten Americans about the threat ofanotherterrorist attack rejected a highly qualified counterterrorism candidate for no better reasonthan his wife is a Democrat. It was better to risk another catastrophic attack and the loss of untold

numbers of lives than to promote Hochul. How Bush salvages his reputation after that revelation is

beyond understanding.


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DDI 2008 12KO Misc

CFTA U overwhelms

No risk of CFTA passing until after the elections

Enrique Gomez Pinzon, Partner at Holland & Knight LLP, 7-28-08, Latin Business Chronicle,

http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=2610

Not only US Republican lawmakers have been calling for a vote on the proposed free trade agreement withColombiaand those with Panama and Korea. President Bush, when commemorating Colombia's independence,vehemently called on Democrat lawmakers to vote and approve these three proposed free trade agreements. It doesnot appear that local US politics will allow the vote on the US-Colombia free trade agreement until after theNovember elections. Once US political leaders can return to taking care of business as usual, the US-Colombia FTAmay have a chance. But the opportunity will only be open during the very short lame duck Congress session. If thereis no vote on the US-Colombia FTA during this current session of Congress, probably the new administration willwant to review the text and maybe renegotiate or add to the current proposed FTA. Does that mean it would be'dead'? I do not think so. However, if that were to happen, the proposed FTA might return to its embryonic stage.

No indications of congress voting on CFTA

Latin Business Chronicle, 8-4-08, http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=2618

However, it is still unclear if the Colombia FTA will be approved this year. There are no indications that SpeakerNancyPelosi will allow a vote on the agreement, which was signed more than two years ago - in February 2006 - andsubmitted to Congress for approval in April - or more than three months ago. Senator Barack Obama - thepresumptive Democratic presidential candidate - opposes the Colombia FTA, but may be forced to support somecongressional passage if he becomes president, some experts predict.


13/37

DDI 2008 13KO Misc

No CFTA

Won't pass- too many factors

JeffVogt, Global Economic Policy Specialist at AFL-CIO, 7-28-08, Latin Business Chronicle,

http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=2610

It is extremely unlikely that the Congress will vote on the Colombia FTA during the current session. First, the Bushadministration has largely failed to address the urgent concerns noted by Speaker Pelosi with regard to shoring upthe US economy, and the labor market remains very weak. Importantly, the labor rights situation in Colombia, adecisive factor for most Democrats, shows no signs of improvement. Indeed, the number of trade unionists murderedso far this year, 31, is significantly higher than the number murdered the same time last year, 22. Measures tocombat impunity have been insufficient, as the intellectual authors of most crimes have gone unpunished. Also,recent labor law reforms passed by the Colombian Congress create as many problems as they resolve. It is unlikelythat the lack of a vote this year means the death of the FTA. Certainly, so long as the labor and other human riguhtsconcerns remain, opposition will continue. If the FTA were to come up at a future date, there would be pressure toaddress additional concerns of citizens both in the United States and Colombia.

Pelosi will prevent the vote from taking place

Beatrice Rangel, Director of AMLA Counsulting LLC, 7-28-08, Latin Business Chronicle,http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=2610

I fail to understand how the US Congress is going to explain to the world in general and Latin America in particularthat it stands for democracy in the Hemisphere while shunning the US-Colombia free trade agreement. Over the pastsix years, Colombia has made every possible effort to reduce violence, drug trade, and human rights violations.Colombia has further stood up bravely to the FARC's extortionist practices, which have kept villages under siege,individuals kidnapped, and drug distribution on schedule. The business community has agreed to higher taxationrates to be able to finance the war against terrorism without disturbing macroeconomic balances. Colombia is one ofthe US' best trading partners, and the free trade agreement will certainly increase US exports to Colombia. More

recently, the Colombian government executed a rescue operation that liberated not only the French-Colombiancelebrity Ingrid Betancourt but also three US citizens. The free trade agreement would allow Colombia to lock inthis progress by continuing to grow and through growth create jobs and better economic conditions for its citizens.These jobs are also essential to secure the peaceful integration of FARC members into society. Should the USCongress refuse to take a vote on this very important agreement for Latin America's democratic development, thesignal to the region will clearly be to seek other allies that would better understand the beneficial impact of trade fordemocratic growth. But anything is possible during an election year in the US, and it unfortunately seems very likelythat Speaker Pelosi would rather prevent this vote from taking place than engaging in a discussion over short-termquick fixes versus long-term economic and political gains for both the US and Colombia.

Won't pass- human rights

Paula Wolfson, Washington, 7-22-08, NewsVOA, http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-07-22-voa63.cfm

Democratic Party leaders in the House have put off formal consideration of the free trade agreement because ofconcerns about the Colombian government's human rights record.


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DDI 2008 14KO Misc

Yes CFTA

Will pass- bipart support

Daniel S. Sullivan, Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of Economic, Energy, and Business

AffairsStatement Before the Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere of the House Committee onForeign Affairs, 8-4-08, Scoop Independent News,http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0808/S00038.htm

The Bush Administration - with the strong bipartisan support of Congress - has made deepening economicengagement in the Hemisphere a top foreign policy priority. Our Free Trade Agreements, our aviation liberalizationagreements, our Millennium Challenge Corporation compacts, and our broader economic dialogue with majoremerging economies like Brazil, are helping to lay a regional economic foundation that will advance our mutualeconomic, energy and foreign policy interests. Congressional approval of the Colombi a FTA would further advancethese efforts and contribute significantly to ensuring the future prosperity, stability, and security of the Hemisphere.We will continue our vigorous engagement in this Hemisphere, and thank the Committee for its focus on andsupport of these vital issues.


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DDI 2008 15KO Misc

Yes fiscal discipline

Republicans holding the line for fiscal discipline nowPATROIT POST, 8-1-08 http://archive.patriotpost.us/pub/08-31_Digest/page-2.php

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) and his fellow Republicans banded together to prevent Majority

Leader Harry Reids (D-NV) omnibus earmark package from reaching a vote this week. The52-40 vote to consider the $10-billion collection of 35 previously stymied spending bills fell

eight votes short of the 60 required. When we reported two weeks ago on Reids sly attemptto revive earlier earmarks that Coburn single-handedly sunk, we were skeptical that the

GOP would stick together in the face of earmark spending that curries favor withconstituents. Thankfully, the appeal to reduce spending on duplicate and unproven

programs weighed more greatly on their collective conscience than the desire for perceivedeasy re-election back home. Score a small victory for sensible government spending.

Unfortunately, that victory is in the face of a budget deficit forecasted to exceed $482 billionin the coming fiscal year.

Fiscal discipline nowsecurity costs don't count

BRUNEI NEWS 7-28-08 http://www.bruneinews.net/story/387487

White House spokeswoman Dana Perino says President Bush is determined to enforce greater fiscal discipline whilepursuing a pro-growth economic strategy.

Perino added that defense and security costs since the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States have placedenormous financial burdens on the country, but that those expenditures are vital and appropriate.


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DDI 2008 16KO Misc

No fiscal discipline

No fiscal discipline nowtrillions of new spendingCitizen Times 7-31-08 http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200880730043

Of the many dubious legacies of President George W. Bush, the lack of any sense of fiscal discipline may be the

longest-lasting. Bush inherited a budget running a surplus in 2001, a surplus projected to top $5 trillion by 2010. Butthe president took that sunny outlook and turned the nations fiscal picture completely around, running huge annualdeficits. When the president took office, the national debt was $5.6 trillion. The ceiling was recently raised to$10.615 trillion.

No fiscal disciplinehundreds of billions spent

Citizen Times 7-31-08 http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200880730043

The president owns this legacy. When he held sway over Congress, he went six years withoutvetoing a bill on any kind, let alone a spending bill.There was talk of fiscal restraint from the administration, such as vows to cut in half the deficit itcreated, but it never seemed serious, because it never was.The latest evidence of that came this week, when the federal budget deficit projection for 2009checked in at nearly $490 billion.

No fiscal discipline nowBush is spending like a madman

CBS News 7-30-08 http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/07/30/couricandco/entry4309239.shtmlIts an issue President Bush never talks about understandable for a politician who regards himself as a defender offiscal discipline.Asked this morning if President Bush were self-conscious or even embarrassed about signing another increase in thedebt limit, White House press secretary Dana Perino defended some of the deficit spending.

The President makes no apologies for the money he spends to protect this country from terrorists who want toattack us. she said. Nor does he make apologies for the economic stimulus package.But theres plenty of spending in the national debt that has nothing to do with the war on terrorism or the $168billion economy stimulus package enacted in February.And theres plenty more deficit spending on the way.


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DDI 2008 17KO Misc

No fiscal discipline

War and energy costs preclude fiscal disciplineDaily News, 7-29-08 http://www.tdn.com/articles/2008/07/30/editorial/doc488e36c273df8602871660.txtGranted, dramatic reductions in spending may have to wait. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, high energy costs andthe slowing economy would seem to preclude the kind of fiscal discipline thats possible with a booming, peacetime

economy.

No fiscal discipline under Congress and Bush

AARP Bulletin, 7-30-08http://bulletin.aarp.org/yourmoney/personalfinance/articles/editorial_promises_vs_obligations.html

So a-borrowin' we go. Unlike the state of Minnesota, the U.S. government is not required tobalance its books. The annual deficit is the amount we come up short each year; the federal debtis the aggregate total of unpaid deficits. That figure is currently $9.5 trillion.The Concord Coalition is a Washington-area advocacy group that focuses on fiscal responsibility balanced budgets, manageable deficits and attention to long-term entitlement program costs.Bixby, Concord's executive director, argues that large deficits are an indicator of the irresponsibleways of Congress and the president. "It underscores how little we've done to maintain fiscaldiscipline over the last several years,'' he said.

***Bush wins the Olympic gold for fiscal irresponsibility***

THE SUN 7-29-08 http://www.nysun.com/editorials/a-democratic-deficit/82808/No sooner were the latest budget projections by the Office of Management and Budget released yesterday thanDemocrats were whipping themselves into a frenzy of outrage at President Bush. "This administration will nowleave office with the worst record of fiscal responsibility in the history of the country," said the Democrat who chairsthe Senate Budget Committee, Kent Conrad. "If we gave Olympic medals for fiscal irresponsibility, President Bushwould take the gold, the silver, and the bronze, because he's got the three highest record deficits ever." TheDemocrat who chairs the House Budget Committee, John Spratt, said, "this in a nutshell is the BushAdministration's legacy: Mr. Bush entered office with the biggest surpluses in history and leaves with the biggestdeficits."

PAY GO BROKEN NOWAmerican Spectator, 7-31-08 http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=13624

Couldn't the House give us an apology for creating more entitlement programs than the people canpossibly fund, then adding even more on top of those, then promising to add even more if re-electedthis fall? The national debt is approaching $10 trillion. And despite the House's paygo rule requiringany new spending to be paid for, the deficit spending continues unabated. Each newborn Americanbaby enters the world a little more than $30,000 in debt thanks to runaway spending. BothDemocrats and Republicans in Congress are directly responsible for this. But we won't get anapology any time soon because then they'd have to stop spending.


18/37

DDI 2008 18KO Misc

IRRESPONSIBILITY INEVITABLE

Inevitableeither Barack or McCain would break fiscal discipline

Barrons, 7-14-08 http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121581648363147369.html?mod=googlenews_barrons

Barack Obama promises fiscal discipline. So does McCain. Fiscal discipline? It's as much aquaint abstraction on Pennsylvania Avenue as it is on Wall Street. To paraphrase John Houseman,the great actor who nevertheless will remain best remembered as the spokesman for SmithBarney: "Congress loses money the old fashioned way -- by living beyond its means."According to the Tax Policy Center, a joint project of the Urban Institute and the BrookingsInstitution, Obama's plan would add $3.3 trillion to the national debt while McCain's would add$4.3 trillion, assuming that all of their optimistic revenue offsets expire. If this is fiscaldiscipline, then I nominate Dennis "Umbrella Stand" Kozlowski for Treasury secretary.

No fiscal discipline for decadesCitizen Times 7-31-08 http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200880730043

The bad news is the deficit may get worse. The projection doesnt include the costs of wars andpapers over borrowing from Social Security surplus funds. Further, the deficit could balloon dueto the slumping economy, which could translate to lower tax revenues and increased spending onthings like unemployment benefits and food stamps.Because of all this, the next president, whether McCain or Obama, will enter office handcuffed.It also means both candidates economic proposals arent very realistic. Both are proposing taxcuts without specifying spending cuts. We cant go down that road forever. We certainly cant godown that road at the speed with which our current president has recklessly driven.Its a glum picture, but its important to recognize that our next commander in chief isnt going to

enter office with a clean slate, but instead with a massive cleanup job ahead.This presidents shadow will be cast over the nations fiscal outlook for years, if not decades.


19/37

DDI 2008 19KO Misc

A2: F-22 sales to Japan good

F-22 sales will cause Chinese arms races. The technology will leak to them through Israel

Smiley, Former member of the U.S. intelligence community, 4/23/07(http://formerspook.blogspot.com/2007/04/raptors-for-japan.html)

Last week, we noted the Air Force's long-standing opposition to potential exports of the F-22 stealth fighter.From the service's perspective, it made little sense to share our most advanced technology with any foreigncustomer, even long-time allies like Israel and Japan. Past experience shows that advanced technology has ahabit of winding up in the wrong hands, even with stringent export controls. One the most recent--andinfamous--examples of an illegal technology transfer is the Lavi fighter program, a joint U.S.-Israeli venturethat began in the 1980s. The Lavi program was aimed at developing an advanced, multi-role fourth-generation fighter, based on the U.S. F-16. American taxpayers provided much of the funding for the Lavi,while the Israelis supplied the bulk of the technical expertise. Unfortunately, the program proved tooexpensive and was ultimately scrapped. So what happened to the Lavi? Many of the Israeli experts--and thetechnology--made their way to China, where they formed the foundation of the F-10 fighter program. The F-10 is virtually a clone of the Lavi, with an advanced air intercept radar, avionics, and Russian-made, active-radar, air-to-air missiles. As we noted recently, the F-10 isn't a world-beater, but it's easily the best fighter theChinese have built on their own (more or less), and it provides a foundation for more sophisticated aircraft inthe future. By comparison, the F-22 is truly state-of-the-art, and the Air Force is (rightfully) concerned about

the possible compromise of that technology through export sales. Despite those concerns, the possibility offoreign F-22 sales may still exist. As Bill Gertz reported in the Washington Times last Friday, Japan wouldlike to purchase up to 100 Raptors, and that has ignited a debate within the administration. Pro-Chinaelements at the White House and the Pentagon oppose the deal, which would (obviously) upset Beijing. Onthe other hand, officials concerned about China's growing military power support the proposed export deal,noting that the Japan sale could cause a shift in the region's balance of power. For the near term, the U.S. isplanning only limited F-22 deployments in the Far East, with Raptor squadrons in Alaska and Okinawa.Japan's acquisition of the Raptoreven for defensive purposes--would force China to realign its advancedfighter force to meet that challenge, at the expense of basing along the Taiwan Strait. Raptor sales toJapan would also keep the Lockheed assembly line open past the projected shut-down date, which meansmore jobs and revenue in states like Texas and Georgia. The Air Force also hopes that foreign interest mightspur our own government to buy more F-22s. Beset by rising costs, the U.S. Raptor purchase may be limitedto only 179 jets, well below what the service wants. Keeping the production line open would give the Air

Force (and its supporters) a chance to lobby Congress for a bigger "domestic" buy. But there is a risk in thatstrategy. First, convincing Congress to buy more F-22s will be a tough sell, despite its technologicalsupremacy. With the Army and Marine Corps trying to overcome a decade of under-funding, it's difficult topersuade lawmakers to purchase additional Raptors, at almost $300 million a copy. Secondly, approval ofexports to Japan will bring demands for sales to other U.S. allies, including South Korea, Israel, and evenSaudi Arabia. Ensuring the security of F-22 technology in those countries would be more difficult, reflectinginternal security issues, or (in the case of Israel) a willingness to share it with other countries.


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A2: F-22 sales to Japan good

Chinese air power expansion causes war throughout Asia

Air and Space Power Journal, Fall 2007(http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj07/fal07/greenberg.html)

Even though the likelihood of Chinas initiating a war in the Pacific region remains small, offensivedevelopment of the PLAAF still poses a threat to regional stability. The ability of China to project militarypower throughout the Pacific jeopardizes American influence in the region. The United States has maintainedmilitary dominance in the Pacific since the end of World War II, but recent Chinese military development hasthe potential to shift the balance of power there. Even with Chinas promise of a peaceful rise, its acquisitionof platforms such as the J-10 and Su-27 fighters may lead the PLAAF to become a regional, technologicalpeer competitor to the United States and other Pacific nations. Chinese militarization may lead neighboringstates such as Japan and Korea, which recently expressed concern over the lack of transparency in Chinasmilitary buildup, to develop more aggressive military postures.38 China might respond by increasing its ownmilitary capabilities, resulting in a spiral process that could lead to intense diplomatic ormilitaryconfrontations .39 It might also use airpower to project power to Central Asian states, such as Kazakhstan,that supply Chinas burgeoning energy demand.40 Any form of PLAAF involvement in these nations couldproduce tension with the United States and Russia, both of which wish to gain influence in thegeostrategically important region.41 To maintain the current balance of power in the Pacific, the United

States must limit the PLAAFs ability to wage offensive air operations. Adm Dennis C. Blair, formercommander of US Pacific Command, declared, We respect the authority of the Peoples Liberation Army intheir mainland. Yet we must make them understand that the ocean and sky [are] ours.42 The Chinese have aninherent right to defend their sovereignty, but the United States must work with its global allies to limit thedevelopment of Chinas offensive air capabilities.

Nuclear war

Toshimaru Ogura and Ingyu Oh, Professors of Economics and Political Economy at Waiikato University,

MONTHLY REVIEW, April, 1997, p. 30North Korea, South Korea, and Japan have achieved quasi-or virtual nuclear armament. Although thesecountries do not produce or possess actual bombs, they possess sufficient technological know-how to possessone or several nuclear arsenals. Thus, virtual armament creates a new nightmare in this region- nuclear

annihilation. Given the concentration of economic affluence and military power in this region and its growingimportance to the world system, any hot conflict among those countries would threaten to escalate into globalconflagration.


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Relations Key to Heg

Collapse of US-Russian relations spurs counterbalancing and blackmail, undermining US

hegemony

Michael McFaul Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a professor of political

science at Stanford University and a non-resident associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace andJames M. Goldgeier, 2005, What to do about Russia, Policy Review,http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/2921316.html

At the same time, it has enough power and potential power to be either a spoiler or a contributing partner as America

pursues its national security interests. For instance, Russia inherited and maintains military and economicties with Iran , Syria,North Korea, and China , relations that could be either useful or threateningto American security interests. Moreover, Russia is the worlds largest producer and exporter ofhydrocarbons , an endowment which could also either serve or impede American strategicinterests, depending on whether leaders in the Kremlin are cooperative or hostile to the UnitedStates. Armed still with thousands of nuclear weapons and intercontinental delivery vehicles, Russia remains theonly country in the world still capable of annihilating the American homeland. It is hard to imagine how Russian

leaders could ever use this kind of powerin either a positive ora threatening way. Yet, if controlledby leaders with genuinely imperial oranti-American intentions, Russias nuclear arsenal could againbecome a tool of blackmail against the United States and its allies.


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Relations Key to Econ

Relations key to the US and world economy

AFP, 2-1-08, US, Russia to hold formal economic talks,http://www.france24.com/france24Public/en/news/business/20080201-us-Russia-talks-on-economic-ties-import-nuclear-fuel.phpThe United States and Russia announced Thursday they will launch formal talks this year to discuss growing tradeand investment links, which include US plans to import Russian nuclear fuel. Washington will host the first meetingin the spring and delegates from both the public and private sector will participate in the new dialogue, according toa joint statement released by the State Department. In a sign of their deepening ties, the US Commerce Departmentannounced separately that the United States will import Russian nuclear fuel under a deal to be signed at DullesInternational Airport near here on Friday. The joint statement said the dialogue reflected new economic trends."Given the increased investment and trade between our two countries, and Russias growing importance in the worldeconomy , the United States and Russia will establish a formal economic dialogue to discuss issues of mutualinterest," it added. On Friday, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and Russian Federal Atomic Energy AgencyDirector Sergey Kiriyenko will "sign a long-term suspension agreement governing trade in nuclear fuel," theCommerce Department said. The deal "will provide US utilities with a reliable supply of nuclear fuel by allowingRussia to export, while minimiz ing any disruption to the U nited S tates' domestic enrichment industry ," it said in astatement.

Relations are key to the world economy

Clifford G. Gaddy, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Global Economy and Development, House Financial Services

Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, and Technology, 10-17-07, Issues in theU.S.-Russia Economic Relationship, Brookings Institute, http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2007/1017russia.aspx

5. The most dramatic change has been in the area of state finances. Here we have witnessed one of the mostdramatic reversals of fate in recent economic and geopolitical history. In 1998 Russia was a countryso impoverished and whose meager finances had been so mismanaged that it was essentially bankrupt. It was sodepleted of foreign reserves that denial of a bail-out to the tune of $15 billion or so could bring down a government.6. When Vladimir Putin assumed the post of prime minister in August 1999, the countrys foreign reserves weredown to under $8 billion and falling. By October, they were at $6.6 billion. Meanwhile, Russias debt to theInternational Monetary Fund was $16.6 billion. Russia was thoroughly bankrupt and practically in receivership. 7.

Fast forward now to this past summer. In August 2007, Russia s foreign reserves were well over $400billion. In addition, it had another $130 billion in its so-called oil stabilization fund . (The IMF, in themeantime, had total lendable funds of less than $250 billion.) Right now, the Russian government continues to addcash to the foreign exchange reserves and stabilization fund at a rate of $170 billion a year. 8. Russia has thus comea long way since the days when it was desperately dependent on the financial largess of the West. Indeed, as holder

of one of largest current account surpluses in world, it is one of the biggest financers of the U.S. currentaccount deficit. The Two Pillars 9. The explanation for the reversal of fortune is hardly a secret. The Russianeconomy rests on two pillars: oil and gas . In exactly the eight years of Putins tenure, the value of thosecommodities has soared. The increase in wealth flowing into Russia from oil and gas is staggering. 10. Consider theincome from one component alone crude oil exports. Roughly eight and a half years ago on February 11, 1999 the price of Urals oil was less than $9.00 a barrel. Russia was producing barely 6 million barrels a day. Today, the

price is $87.00, and Russia produces nearly 10 million barrels a day. Almost every drop of the

increased output has been shipped abroad to the world market. Look at the difference. In the first threemonths of 1999, crude oil export revenues totaled barely $2 billion. Right now, Russia earns that much in crudeexports in less than a week. 11. People say: But theres more there than just oil. Indeed, there is more and moreeach year. The pillars support more. The visual image is a platform resting on the pillars I mentioned. Piled on thatplatform, higher and higher, is business activity in retail, wholesale, consumer goods, construction, real estate. Thisis the non-oil economy. 12. So, yes, Russias non-oil sectors are growing as a share of the total economy. Is oilthen becoming less important for Russia? No. It is just the opposite. Oil becomes more important, because morebusinesses and more jobs depend on the flow from oil and gas.


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Incentivesindustry developmentIncentives cause development of industryprefer our interpretation, it's in the context of

government incentives

A Dicitionary of Geography, 2004, Susan Mahew,http://www.answers.com/topic/government-incentives?cat=technology,

Government incentivesMeasures taken by a government to attract the development of industry in specified areas. These includegrants for building, works, plant, and machinery, assistance in encouraging sound industrial projects,removal grants to new locations, free rent of a government-owned factory for up to five years, taxationallowances against investments, loans, and contract preference schemes
http://www.answers.com/topic/government-incentives?cat=technologyhttp://www.answers.com/topic/government-incentives?cat=technologyhttp://www.answers.com/topic/government-incentives?cat=technologyhttp://www.answers.com/topic/government-incentives?cat=technologyhttp://www.answers.com/topic/government-incentives?cat=technology


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MASS TRANSIT SPENDING LINKS

There's 88000 local governments in the US as of 2002

US census 02 http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/governments/000410.html

The number of the nation's local governments totaled 87,525 in 2002 andnearly one-third of them provided information and services online,

according to the first information from the2002 Census of Governments [PDF

1MB]

released today by the Commerce Department's Census Bureau.

One hybrid bus costs 200 thousand dollars

Jane Hadley, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 12-13-04, Hybrid buses fuel economy promises dont materialize,http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/transportation/203509_metro13.html

Expensive new hybrid diesel-electric buses that were portrayed by King County Metro as "green" heroes thatwould use up to 40 percent less fuel than existing buses have fallen far short of that promise.

In fact, at times, the New Flyer hybrid articulated buses have gotten worse mileage than the often-maligned1989 dual-mode Breda buses they are replacing. Yet the hybrid buses cost $200,000 more each than a conventionalarticulated diesel bus.
http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/gc021x1.pdfhttp://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/gc021x1.pdf


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Reprocessing spending links

Nuclear reprocessing costs 40 billion dollars

Dr. Edwin Lyman, UCS Senior Staff Scientis, 5-08,http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_terrorism/extracting-plutonium-from-nuclear-reactor-spent-fuel.html

Reprocessing and the use of plutonium as reactor fuel are also far more expensive than using uranium fueland disposing of the spent fuel directly. In the United States, some 55,000 tons of nuclear waste havealready been produced, and existing reactors add some 2,000 metric tons of spent fuel annually. TheEnergy Department recently released an industry estimate that a reprocessing plant with an annualcapacity of 2,000 metric tons of spent fuel would cost up to $20 billion to buildand the U.S. wouldneed two of these to reprocess all its spent fuel. An Argonne National Laboratory scientist recentlyestimated that the cost premium for reprocessing spent fuel would range from 0.4 to 0.6 cents perkilowatt-hourcorresponding to an extra $3 to $4.5 billion per year for the current U.S. nuclear reactorfleet. The American public would end up having to pay this charge, either through increased taxes orhigher electricity bills.Non-uniqueCalifornia is one month and 15 billion dollars overdue

Sacramento Bee, 8-3-08 http://www.insidebayarea.com/opinion/ci_10089395With the state of California facing a $15 billion budget shortfall, Democrats and Republicans are a month overdue ingetting a new spending plan in place. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is about to order a temporary pay cut for200,000 state employees and wants to furlough thousands of others to preserve cash so the government can continueoperating through September.


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A2: Cali econ

Construction's key to Californiaplan doesnt affect that

ACP Publications 6-25-08http://www.acppubs.com/blog/1110000511/post/1130028913.html

Kenneth Simonson, chief economist for Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), just sent out the following interesting fact sheet

aboutthe importance of the construction industry to our States economy:The industry employed 815,000 workers in May 2008, 5-percent of the states non-farm employment of 15,143,000 and a decrease of 9.8-

percent from one year before. Nationally, construction accounted for 5-percent of non-farm employment but fell 5.1-percent over the year ashomebuilding shrank.

Construction contributed $70 billion to state GDP of $1.8 trillion in 2007. Annual pay in 2006 in construction averaged$48,321, 1-percent more than the private sector average of $47,809. Nationally, construction pay averaged $44,496, 5-percent more than thenational private sector average of $42,414.

California's economy is resilient

Comerica Bank, 6 "California brief"http://www.comerica.com/Comerica_Content/Corporate_Communications/Docs/CaliforniaEconomicBrief_2006_04.pdf

Surprisingly Resilient

California is still in the midst of a painful consolidation of its homebuilding sector. That part of the state economy isin a steep slide that is considerably more severe than what is going on nationally. But remarkably, job growth overallaccelerated in California over the past several months. Despite the considerable drag from the housing sector, thestate has a good shot at outperforming the national economy again in 2006.


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Private research solves nuclear

Private research solves

California Public Interest Research Group, 6 http://www.calpirg.org/home/reports/report-archives/healthy-communities/healthy-communities/challenging-nuclear-power-in-the-states-policy-and-organizing-tools-for-

slowing-the-nuclear-renaissance

Capitalizing on rising energy prices, growing concern about global warming, and a favorable political climate, the nuclearindustry is working to achieve a nuclear renaissance. After 30 years without a single new order for a nuclear power plantin the U.S., several companies are now in the early stages of proposing new nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, federalofficials have begun routinely approving requests to run existing nuclear plants harder and longer than ever.

Private sector is key to nuclear developmentJackSpencer,Research Fellow in Nuclear Energy in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies 7http://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/bg2086.cfm

Private investors have a key role to play in reestablishing America's nuclear industry. The industry is nolonger owned or supported by the government, although the Energy Policy Act of 2005 does providesome incentives to utilities. In general, private investors provide the capital and take the risks necessary todevelop the nuclear industry. The government's role should be to ensure safety and allow the industry--just like any other--to compete and flourish in open markets.


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States CP solves GNEP

Federal action for GNEP isn't a reason the counterplan is badBush will expand GNEP in the status quo

Miles Pomper, their author, editor ofArms Control Today, a monthly journal of authoritative information andanalysis published by the Arms Control Association. 2008

President George W. Bushs fiscal 2009 budget request, unveiled Feb. 4, calls for a significant increase in fundingfor two controversial administration nuclear efforts: the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) and a newmixed-oxide (MOX) fuel facility at Savannah River, South Carolina. The administration made the request despitethe fact that Congress significantly cut funds for both programs last year and key lawmakers continue to expressskepticism about the initiatives.


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A2: GNEP

GNEP is NON-BINDINGmeans their cards about US led safety regulations are BULLSHIT

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 7-31-08 http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/reports/the-future-of-gnep/the-future-of-gnep-the-international-partners

GNEP partners plan to invite an additional 25 countries, including several from the Persian Gulf, to join thepartnership this fall. While the Energy Department has touted the growth of GNEP membership, member countriesaren't asked to make legally binding commitments or commit any funding. Partners merely agree to supportthe expansion of nuclear energy and to close the fuel cycle by signing the GNEP Statement of PrinciplesPDF.

Current GNEP policies mandate the US not to work with countries developing nuclear poweronly with

already advanced fuel-cycle countries

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 7-31-08 http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/reports/the-future-of-gnep/the-future-of-gnep-the-international-partners

With regard to GNEP's international aspects, the 2009 House Committee report specified, "No funds are providedfor any continued work on GNEP, including the department's efforts to solicit developing partner countries in theGNEP program." It instructed Energy to continue to coordinate GNEP's research and development arm withcountries that already have advanced fuel-cycle capabilities (Britain, France, and Japan), but not to work withcountries aspiring to have nuclear capabilities. No similar provisions were contained in the Senate bill, and it'sunclear whether this language will be retained in the event of a continuing resolution, a requirement if, as appearslikely, Congress doesn't finalize the 2009 Energy and Water Appropriations bill.
http://www.gnep.energy.gov/pdfs/GNEP_SOP.pdfhttp://www.gnep.energy.gov/pdfs/GNEP_SOP.pdfhttp://www.gnep.energy.gov/pdfs/GNEP_SOP.pdf


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War racismWAR AND ECONOMIC DECLINE PERPETUATE RACISM

We're trying to STOP the plan, stop it from causing massive racism. Means we gain access to their in-round discourse.


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Obama Wins

If bad economic conditions continue, Obama wins.

AlisterBull, Reuters, 8-1-08, Economic models predict clear Obama win in November,http://in.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idINN0138628820080801?sp=trueEconomic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections say

recession fears will secure a victory for Barack Obama in November.Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the

popular vote on Nov. 4, based on current gloomy economic estimates.Any further darkening in the economic outlook -- many analysts think things will get worse between now and

November -- would reinforce that election outcome."The economy is certainly not going to be a positive for the Republicans," said Ray Fair, an economics

professor at Yale university who built the earliest of the models in 1978.His model, which assumed tepid U.S. economic growth of 1.5 percent and a 3 percent rate of inflation,

predicted the Republican candidate John McCain's share of the vote would be 47.8 percent, handing Obama 52.2percent.

"It is a decent margin but it is not a landslide," said Fair, who ran the numbers in April. "It would have beenmuch larger if there had been a recession in 2008."U.S. economic activity doubled in the second quarter to a 1.9 percent annualized pace. But previous data was

revised lower to show output contracted 0.2 percent in the final three months of last year, the weakest performancesince 2001, and expanded only slightly at the start of 2008.

Obama is winning because voters are unhappy with the current administration. The

economy is a bigger voting issue than the Iraq war.

CTV news staff, 7-16-08, Obama leads McCain in new election pollA new poll suggests Barack Obama has a seven-point lead over John McCain in the race to the White House,

but nearly 10 per cent of voters have yet to make up their minds.The Zogby poll, released Wednesday, also suggests independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian

candidate Bob Barr would draw votes away from McCain, thereby extending Obama's lead even further.

When respondents were asked who they would vote for if only given the choice between Obama, McCain and"someone else," most said they would support the Democratic candidate:

Obama: 47 per cent

McCain: 40.3 per cent

Other: 2.9 per cent

Undecided: 9.8 per cent

However, when the same question was repeated with the names of Nader and Barr added, McCain lost support.

Obama: 46.3 per cent

McCain: 36.3 per cent

Nader: 3.3 per cent

Barr: 3.4 per cent

Other: 1.1 per cent

Undecided: 9.6 per cent"The key thing here, in this poll anyway, is that Obama is doing better among fellow Democrats than McCain is

with fellow Republicans," pollster John Zogby told CTV's Canada AM on Wednesday.The poll also suggests McCain faces an uphill battle in the election because of voter dissatisfaction with the

current Republican government. More than two thirds of voters -- 72.9 per cent -- said the U.S. was on the "wrongtrack."

Also, only 12 per cent of respondents felt that McCain's main campaign issue -- the Iraq war -- would be adeciding factor in who to vote for. The economy was by far the top issue, with 47.1 per cent saying it woulddetermine who got their support.


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McCain is a long shot because of lack of support for Bush and Republicans.

Michael Grunwald TIME, 7-22-08, Never Underestimate McCain, But,http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1825337,00.html?imw=Y

Oh, let's just admit it: John McCain is a long shot. He's got a heroic personal story, and being white has neverhurt a presidential candidate, but on paper 2008 just doesn't look like his year. And considering what's happening off

paper, it might be time to ask the question the horse-race-loving media are never supposed to ask: Is McCain a no-shot?

Last week, the McCain campaign's case against Barack Obama went something like this: He's irresponsiblewhen it comes to Iraq, naive when it comes to Iran and a Big Government liberal when it comes to the economy. Butnow Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has more or less endorsed Obama's plan to withdraw from Iraq, forcingMcCain to argue that al-Maliki didn't really mean it, and even the Bush Administration has accepted a "timehorizon" for withdrawal, if not a precise "timetable." The Bush Administration has also engaged in some diplomaticoutreach with Iran, just as Obama has recommended, a severe blow to McCain's efforts to portray Obama'swillingness to engage in dialogue as appeasement. And on the economy, a TIME/Rockefeller Foundation poll foundthat 82% of the country supports more federal infrastructure spending designed to create jobs. When BigGovernment liberalism is all the rage, McCain's courage in opposing water projects or the farm bill becomes less ofa selling point.

McCain has struggled to find his voice in this environment. His initial reaction to the foreclosure crisis boiled

down to old-fashioned conservative self-reliance, which went over like a lead balloon, and was eventually replacedwith a more aggressive plan for government assistance. He has changed or shaded his positions on offshore drilling,the estate tax, ethanol, immigration and a host of other issues. He can't seem to decide whether to run as a maverickand risk demoralizing a GOP base that already mistrusts him or run as a conservative and risk alienating swingvoters who already miss the John McCain of 2000. And his campaign which survived anear-death experience inthe primaries is in seemingly perpetual turmoil.

But McCain is still a compelling figure, and shake-ups happen. His real problem is the political environment.He's a Republican in what is emerging as a Democratic year. And he's aligned with Bush in a year of Bush fatigueover the Bush economy. Emory University's Alan Abramowitz has concocted a formula that has predicted thepopular vote winner in 14 of the last 15 elections; it missed in 1968 but got the razor-thin margin right. Hisbarometer uses three criteria: the approval rating of the incumbent President, the economic growth rate and the"time-for-a-change" factor of whether the incumbent's party has controlled the White House for two terms. McCain'sscore is the worst since Jimmy Carter's in 1980. "History suggests that McCain is toast," Clive Crook wrote in the

Financial Times.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,992801,00.htmlhttp://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,992801,00.htmlhttp://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1706450,00.htmlhttp://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1706450,00.htmlhttp://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,992801,00.htmlhttp://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1706450,00.html


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The success of the Iraq surge is paying off for Obama

John Ibbitson, Globe and Mails Washington columnist and correspondent, nominee for theDonner Prize, the Governor General's Award, the National Newspaper Award, the Trillium Award

and the City of Toronto Book Award, 7-11-08, Ironically, success of the surge in Iraq is helpingObama,http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/GAM.20080711.IBBITSON11/TPStory/TPComment

After every other strategy had failed, President George W. Bush finally came around to Mr. McCain's view. Thesurge of troop strength in 2007 is paying handsome dividends in 2008.

Barack Obama opposed the war in Iraq, which in retrospect was politically astute, and opposed the surge, whichmay have been less astute, since the surge worked.

So during this election campaign, the success of the surge should rebound in Mr. McCain's favour. In fact, theopposite may be true.

"Ironically, the success of the surge has made life easier for Barack Obama," Dan Senor believes. Mr. Senor is asenior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former adviser on Iraq to the Bush administration.

First of all, as the situation in Iraq improves, national security, where Mr. McCain is seen as stronger than Mr.

Obama, recedes from the public consciousness and the domestic economy, where Mr. Obama has the advantage overMr. McCain, becomes the primary focus of the presidential election campaign.

"It's hard to make the election about national security, when national security issues aren't in the news," Mr.Senor observed. "And it's hard for national security issues to be in the news when all is quiet."

There is a second, more subtle reason why the surge benefits Mr. Obama. If there had been no surge, Mr. Senorargues, Mr. Obama, if elected president, would have fewer troops available to withdraw from a much more chaoticenvironment.

"There would be enormous cross-pressure against doing that if things were unstable in Iraq," Mr. Senorobserves.

Instead, Mr. Obama, if he wins the election, might be able to substantially fulfill his pledge to have virtually allAmerican forces out of Iraq within 16 months of taking office. (Mr. Obama has said that he might "refine" that planafter talking with commanders on the ground when he visits Iraq this summer.)

For Mr. McCain, talk of withdrawals actually works against his argument that substantial U.S. forces will be

needed in Iraq for some time.


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Obama Good space

Obama good for space.

Robert Block, Orlando Sentinel Staff Writer, 8-3-08, Obama says he will protect NASA jobs,budget, http://www.orlandosentinel.com/community/news/ucf/orl-obama0308aug03,0,4293362.story

In a dramatic reversal of policy, Democratic presidential hopefulBarack Obamaon Saturday told supporters onthe Space Coast he no longer favors slashingNASA's budget, declaring that the United States "cannot cede ourleadership in space."

Though he said nothing specific about sending astronauts to the moon or Mars -- the central focus of NASA'splans and key to the hopes of many space supporters -- Obama was more supportive of the agency than he had everbeen publicly.

"Under my watch, NASA will inspire the world, make America stronger and help grow the economy here inFlorida," he told 1,400 people at Brevard Community College in Titusville, a community economically dependenton theKennedy Space Center.

He followed the morning meeting with a speech to the National Urban League convention in Orlando.

The Illinois senator promised he would work to add one more space-shuttle flight beyond 2010, the shuttleprogram's scheduled end. He said he wanted to ensure thousands of contract workers didn't lose their jobs. "Wecannot afford to lose their expertise," he said.
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DDI 2008 35KO Misc

McCain avoids Bush

McCain wins by drawing attention to Obama and away from Bush.

Craig Gilbert, writer for Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 8-3-08, Obama is the star of McCainscampaign, http://www.kansascity.com/445/story/732402.html

One is that McCain, running in a lousy year for Republicans, needs to make this election about Obama.The other is that this election already is about Obama - that whatever McCain says or does, the subject of

Obama is going to dominate the coverage and conversation."It appears the McCain people are so frustrated with Obama's star appeal, and their sense that he is harder to

criticize, (that) they've made the judgment they have to somehow tarnish him, rough him up, so that he doesn't lookso great - even at the risk of making (McCain) himself look not so great," says Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold,who supports Obama, but is a longtime Senate collaborator and friend of McCain's.

"I don't think it's very pretty. I hope it doesn't work. But I think they've made a professional judgment that inorder to win, this is what they have to do," Feingold said.

Matt Dowd, a key strategist in President's Bush's 2004 re-election race, said that the 2008 election is "eitherabout Obama or about Bush. If it's about Bush, McCain loses. If it's about Obama, he has a possibility to win."

In the view of many inside and outside the campaign, this is an Obama-centric race: the judgments that votersform about Obama in the next three months will have more to do with who wins than the ones they form aboutMcCain.

In a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 51 percent of voters said they find themselves focusing more on whatkind of president Obama would be, compared with 27 percent who said the same about McCain.

Related to that is an iron rule of politics: The candidate who is less familiar and established in people's minds isthe one far more likely to be discussed - and defined - by the campaign. The battle over that candidate's imagebecomes the central struggle of the election. One Republican media consultant interviewed last week termed this a"law of physics."


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DDI 2008 36KO Misc

McCain Wins

The weak economy is good for McCain because of what his and Obamas policies are.

James Pethokoukis, money and politics columnist for U.S. News & World Report, assistantmanaging editor of the magazine's Money & Business section, 7-15-08, 4 Reasons the Weak

Economy Is Now Helping McCain, http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/7/15/4-reasons-the-weak-economy-is-now-helping-mccain.htmlThe 2008 presidential race has gone weirdly nonlinear. The latest Rasmussen poll has Barack Obama with a 2percentage-point lead over John McCain(Obama had been consistently leading by 5 points for the past six weeks).AndNewsweekhas Obama ahead by just 3 pointswithin the margin of errorafter putting him up by a whopping15 points last month. (After seeing that firstNewsweekpoll, a McCain adviser told me, "If that poll is somehowright, I may as well call it a day and go home right now.") Up until now, the electoral equation seemed prettystraightforward. The more the economy weakened, the better it was for Democrat Barack Obama and the worse forRepublican John McCain. Certainly the expectation of Washington know-it-alls has been that a weak economy,when combined with frustration with the ongoing war in Iraq, would doom the GOP nominee. That's definitely theprediction of all those sophisticated presidential election forecasting models. And out-and-out recession, accordingto the model of economist Ray Fair of Yale University, would give Obama at least a 10-point landslide. Yet here'sMcCain in a tight clinch with Obama, a man whom French political observer Bernard-Henri Levy just declared in

theNew Republic magazine to be "not only the most charismatic but also the most gifted politician produced by theDemocratic machine in a long time." Look, Bill Clinton won by 5.6 percentage points and 202 electoral votes in1992. Shouldn't Obama, arguably a far more inspirationalnot to mention historicfigure, win by a much biggermargin given voters' terrible perception of an economy battered by rising unemployment, $4-a-gallon gas, and bearmarkets in housing and stocks? But I think we may now be at the point where this economic mess has startedworking in McCain's favor. The dynamic no longer seems to be a linear phenomenon in which a bad economy isgood for Obama and a worse economy is even better. Rather, the situation has become chaotic and almostimpossible to predict in view of all the emerging variables. But within the range of realistic possibilities, McCainmay now have a roughly fifty-fifty shot at victory. Here's why: 1) Gas prices.Polls show the public wants lower gasprices and thinks oil drilling can help get them. And McCain and the Republicans have positioned themselves as theparty of more energy and lower prices. They want to drill, and they want to build more nuclear plants. But instead ofopening up new areas to drilling, Democrats want to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And who can forgetObama's response when asked what he thought of higher gas prices: "I would have preferred a gradual adjustment."One problem may be thatObama fashioned his energy plan when oil was a mere $60 a barrel. McCain seems to besmartly tweaking his policies on the flydrilling, the gas tax moratoriumto appeal to voters furious about higherprices at the pump. 2) StaleObamanomics. Like his energy policy, Obama's economic policy was crafted when theeconomy was clearly expanding, unemployment was below 5 percent, and the budget deficit was plunging. Nowgrowth is sporadic at best, unemployment is rising sharply, and the deficit is likely to top a record $500 billion. YetObama still wants to raise investment, income, and payroll taxes while expanding spending. McCain, on the otherhand, is talking about pro-growth tax cuts and balancing the budget by the end of his first term. Just as Obama's Iraqpolicy seems stuck in the past, so does his economic policy. 3) The Fannie and Freddie fiasco. Up until theannouncement of thePaulson-Bernanke bailout, the mortgage mess and credit crunch looked to many like examplesof free-market failure. But Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are creations of a federal government trying to promote aspecific economic policygreater homeownership. And the artificial existence of these quasi-corporate creatureshas contributed mightily to the housing mess, explains economist Brian Wesbury, by dominating the mortgagemarket "using subsidized credit" and pushing "private firms toward the fringes of the securitization process and intoterritory which included subprime and Alt-A loans." In any event, the Fannie-Freddie mess could be used by Team

McCain to vividly display the incompetency of big government at the exact time Obama is arguing for moregovernment involvement in healthcare and energy. 4) A skeptical public. America doesn't think too much of itsgovernment right now. Approval ratings of President Bush and Congress are minuscule. Indeed, pollsters will tellyou that bad economies make voters skeptical of government rather than pushing them to embrace it. A recentZogby poll showed that 46 percent of Democrats favored corporate taxes over taxpayer-funded federal programs asthe best way to spur economic growth. Recall that a big corporate tax cut is at the heart of the McCain economicprogram. A big risk for Obama is that he will mistake a dislike of the GOP for a love of bigger government andoverreach on policy and rhetoric.
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DDI 2008 37KO Misc

Polls Fail

Either voters lie on polls or those who dont take polls are a significant demographic.

Ellen Gamerman, reporter for The Wall Street Journal, 8-2-08, When Voters Lie,

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121763171653206035.html?mod=googlenews_wsjPollsters look for the "Bradley Effect," the idea that some white voters are reluctant to say they support a whitecandidate over a black candidate. The phrase refers to California's 1982 gubernatorial election, when the late TomBradley, a black Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, led in exit polls against white Republican George Deukmejian.Mr. Bradley lost the election. The conclusion: some voters hid their true choice from pollsters. Skeptics say the issuewas neither race nor honesty. One theory is that Mr. Deukmejian's supporters simply didn't want to participate inpolls.

Sen. Obama leads Republican rival John McCain 47% to 41%, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC Newssurvey last month. Aides to Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain declined to discuss the details of the candidates' pollingstrategies. But the two camps no doubt take surveys with a grain of salt. "There certainly is a presumption thatpeople self-censor to some degree," says Scott Keeter, director of survey research at the Pew Research Center inWashington.

In a recently released study, Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, Conn., found nearly 11% of people who havereported being polled said they have lied to pollsters about their views on politics and public affairs. "Why they'relying is probably as varied as individuals are varied," says Jerry Lindsley, director of the school's polling institute."Halfway through a survey, they might all of a sudden get nervous about the kinds of questions they're being askedand start to lie or not be totally straightforward."

Questions about polling and race were raised during this year's presidential primaries. In New Hampshire, pollsgave Sen. Obama as much as a 10-percentage-point advantage over Hillary Clinton the day before the primary. Sen.Clinton went on to win the state. Pollster Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, doesn't blame lying.Instead, he says, some voters who were poorer, less-educated and white may have had less favorable views ofAfrican-Americans and were less likely to take surveys. "When polls get it wrong, it's not because people lied, it'sbecause the people who turned down the polls have different attitudes than the people who took the polls," he says.

391 KO Misc Day 1 Updates

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