3 Sept 16
description
Transcript of 3 Sept 16
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• Bank Accounting and Fractional Reserve Banking (Review)
• Bank Capital and Profitability• The Money Multiplier• Change in Total Deposits• Change in the Money Supply
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Bank Balance Sheet
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
Anything the bank owns
Any amount the bank is owed
DepositsSavings Deposits
Checking Deposits
(Often called “bank capital”)
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Bank Balance Sheet
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
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Bank Balance Sheet
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
Reserves
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Bank Balance Sheet
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
ReservesVault Cash
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Bank Balance Sheet
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
ReservesVault Cash
Deposits with the Fed
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Bank Balance Sheet
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
ReservesVault Cash
Deposits with the Fed
Loans
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Bank Balance Sheet
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
ReservesVault Cash
Deposits with the Fed
Loans
Bonds
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Bank Balance Sheet
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
ReservesVault Cash
Deposits with the Fed
Loans
BondsOther Assets
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Bank Balance Sheet
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
ReservesVault Cash
Deposits with the Fed
Loans
BondsOther Assets
Checking Deposits
Savings Deposits
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The Balance Sheet HAS TO Balance
NW = A – L
A = L + NW (or Capital)
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Bank Capital and Profitability
• Remember that net worth equals assets minus liabilities.
• Net worth is referred to as bank capital, or equity capital.
• We can think of capital as the owners’ stake in the bank.
• Capital is the cushion banks have against a sudden drop in the value of their assets or an unexpected withdrawal of liabilities.• It provides some insurance against insolvency.
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Bank Capital and Profitability
• An important component of bank capital is loan loss reserves:• Loan loss reserves are an amount the bank sets
aside to cover potential losses from defaulted loans.
• At some point the bank gives up hope a loan will be repaid and it is written off, or erased from the bank’s balance sheet.
• At this point, the loan loss reserve is reduced by the amount of the loan that has defaulted.
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Bank Capital and Profitability
• The ratio of debt to equity in the U.S. banking system was about 8 to 1 in January 2013.
• Although that is a substantial amount of leverage, it is nearly 25% below the average commercial bank leverage ratio that prevailed prior to the financial crisis of 2007-2009.• Debt-to-equity ratio for nonfinancial business in the
U.S. is less than 1 to 1.• Household leverage is roughly 1/3 to 1.
• Leverage increases risk AND expected return.
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Bank Capital and Profitability
• One of the explanations for the relatively high degree of leverage in banking is the existence of government guarantees like deposit insurance.• These government guarantees allow banks to
capture the benefits of risk taking without subjecting depositors to potential losses.
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Bank Capital and Profitability
There are several measures of bank profitability.
1. Return on assets (ROA).• ROA is the bank’s profit left after taxes
divided by the bank’s total assets.
• It is a measure of how efficiently a particular banks uses its assets.
• This is less important to bank owners than the return on their own investment.
Net profit after taxes
Total bank assetsROA
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Bank Capital and Profitability
2. The bank’s return to its owners is measured by the return on equity (ROE).• This is the bank’s net profit after taxes divided
by the bank’s capital.
• ROA and ROE are related to leverage.• One measure of leverage is the ratio of
banks assets to bank capital.• Multiplying ROA by this ratio yields ROE.
Net profit after taxes
Bank capitalROE
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Bank Capital and Profitability
ROE Net profit after taxes
Bank Capital
ROA *Bank Assets
Bank Capital
Net profit after taxes
Total bank assets*
Bank Assets
Bank Capital
Net profit after taxes
Bank capitalROE
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Bank Capital and Profitability
• Prior to the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the typical U.S. bank has a ROA of about 1.3%.
• For large banks, the ROE tends to be higher than for small banks, suggesting greater leverage, a riskier mix of assets, or the existence of significant economies to scale in banking.• The poor performance during the crisis and
moderate returns after, suggests their high returns were at least partly due to more leverage or a riskier mix of assets.
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Bank Capital and Profitability
3. The final measure of bank profitability is net interest income.• This is related to the fact that banks pay interest on
their liabilities and receive interest on their assets.• Deposits and bank borrowing rate interest expenses;
securities and loans generate interest income.
• The difference between the two is net interest income.
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Bank Capital and Profitability
• Net interest income can also be expressed as a percentage of total assets to yield: net interest margin.• This is the bank’s interest rate spread - the
weighted average difference between the interest rate received on assets and the interest rate paid for liabilities.
• Well-run banks have a high net interest income and a high net interest margin.• If a bank’s net interest margin is currently
improving, its profitability is likely to improve in the future.
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Money Multiplier: Step 1Somebody Deposits $10,000 in
Bank of America
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital
Reserves
Loans
Checking Deposits
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Money Multiplier: Step 1Somebody Deposits $10,000 in
Bank of America
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital
Reserves +$10K Checking Deposits +$10K
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Total New Deposits
$10,000 Original Deposit
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Money Multiplier: Step 1Somebody Deposits $10,000 in
Bank of America
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital
Reserves +$10K
- New Loans $9K
Checking Deposits +$10K
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Money Multiplier: Step 1Somebody Deposits $10,000 in
Bank of America
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital
Reserves +$10K
-New Loans $ 9K
Loans +$ 9K
Checking Deposits +$10K
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Money Multiplier: Step 1Somebody Deposits $10,000 in
Bank of AmericaFinal Changes in Balance Sheet
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital
Reserves +$1K
Loans +$9K
Checking Deposits +$10K
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Money Multiplier$9,000 loaned out by BOA ends up in
Cambridge Savings Bank
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital
Reserves +$9K
Loans
Checking Deposits +$9K
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Total New Deposits
$10,000 Original Deposit in BOA
$ 9,000 Deposit in CSB
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Money Multiplier: Step 2Final Balance Sheet of Cambridge
Savings Bank
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital
Reserves +$ 900
Loans +$ 8,100
Checking Deposits +$9K
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Total New Deposits
$10,000 Original Deposit in BOA
$ 9,000 Deposit in CSB
$ 8,100 Deposit in Sovereign Bank
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Total New Deposits
$10,000 Original Deposit in BOA
$ 9,000 Deposit in CSB
$ 8,100 Deposit in Sovereign Bank
$ 7,290 Deposit in Citibank
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Total New Deposits
$10,000 Original Deposit in BOA
$ 9,000 Deposit in CSB
$ 8,100 Deposit in Sovereign Bank
$ 7,290 Deposit in Citibank
$ 6,561 Deposit in Capital One
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Total New Deposits
$10,000 Original Deposit in BOA
$ 9,000 Deposit in CSB
$ 8,100 Deposit in Sovereign Bank
$ 7,290 Deposit in Citibank
$ 6,561 Deposit in Capital One
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Money Multiplier Process
Deposit → Loan
→ Deposit → Loan
→ Deposit → Loan
→ . . . . etc.
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Total Change in Deposits
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
R
where R = the reserve requirement
If E = the percentage of their deposits banks are holding as excess reserves……
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
is called the "money multiplier"R+E
1
R+E
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Total Change in the Money Supply
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
is called the "money multiplier"R+E
1
R+E
Money Supply Total Deposits
Cash held by the public
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Two Fundamental Equations of Money Creation
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
R+E
Money Supply Total Deposits
Cash held by the public
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Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:
$10,000 DepositR = 10%E = 0%
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
R+E
$10,0001
.1+0
$10,000 10
$100,000
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Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
R+E
$100,000
Money Supply Total Deposits
Cash held by the public
$100,000 ($10,000)
$90,000
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Excess Reserves Before and During the Crisis
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Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:
What if E = 10%?
Money multiplier 1
R+E
1
.1+.1
1
.2
5
R still = 10%
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Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:
$10,000 DepositR = 10%E = 10%
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
R+E
$10,0001
.1+.1
$10,000 5
$50,000
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Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
R+E
$50,000
Money Supply Total Deposits
Cash held by the public
$50,000 ($10,000)
$40,000
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Reverse Money Multiplier Process
What happens if somebody withdraws $10,000 from the bank?
Sets in motion the reverse money multiplier process
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Someone Withdraws $10,000 from Bank of America
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
Reserves −$10,000 Deposits −$10,000
Required Reserves ↓by $1,000
Actual Reserves ↓by $10,000
Bank is $9,000 short of reserves
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Reverse Money Multiplier Process
Four options when a bank is short of reserves:
1. Borrow the needed reserves from another bank on the “Fed Funds” market
2. Borrow the needed reserves from the Fed at the “discount window”
3. Reduce loans
4. Sell securities (bonds)
Eventually, some bank will need to do (3) or (4)
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Bank of America
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
Reserves +$9,000
Loans −$9,000
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Citizen’s Bank
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
Reserves −$9,000 Deposits −$9,000
Bank is $8,100 short of reserves
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Sovereign Bank
Assets (A) Liabilities (L)
Bank Capital (= A – L)
Reserves −$8,100 Deposits −$8,100
Bank is $7,290 short of reserves
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Reverse Money Multiplier Process
Withdrawal → Loan reduction
→ Withdrawal → Loan reduction
→ Withdrawal → Loan reduction
→ . . . . etc.
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Total Change in Depositsand Money SupplyExample:
$10,000 DepositR = 10%E = 0%
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
R+E
$10,0001
.1+0
$10,000 10
$100,000
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Reverse Money Multiplier ProcessExample:
$10,000 WithdrawalR = 10%E = 0%
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
R+E
$10,0001
.1+0
$10,000 10
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Reverse Money Multiplier ProcessExample:
Total Deposits Initial Deposit 1
R+E
$100,000
Money Supply Total Deposits
Cash held by the public
$100,000 $10,000
$90,000