WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION___________________________________________

RA IV HURRICANE COMMITTEE

THIRTY-NINTH SESSION

SAN JOSE, COSTA RICA

23 TO 26 MARCH 2017

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3)(13.II.2017)________

ITEM 3.2

Original: SPANISH

3. REVIEW OF THE PREVIOUS HURRICANE SEASON

Report on hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related floods during 2016

Report by Cuba

(Submitted by Cuba)

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3), p. 2

The only tropical cyclone to affect Cuba during the 2016 season was Hurricane Matthew. The warning system worked very well: three early warnings were issued (120 to 72 hours before the expected arrival of a hurricane in Cuba) as well as 43 tropical cyclone warnings, which analysed the present situation and the future development of this dangerous hurricane.

Meteorologists were in constant contact with the population through radio and television well before the hurricane impacted the easternmost part of Cuba, especially in the 48 hours before impact. Information on each event related to the phenomenon, was transmitted live from the National Forecasting Centre of the Meteorology Institute. The main details of the hurricane's passage through Cuba are described below. This tropical cyclone system was a concern among specialists at the National Forecasting Centre, particularly with regard to surveillance before the phenomenon became a hurricane: given the time of year, the phenomenon’s position and its future track, some forecasting models had already predicted a remote threat to the country. The first early warning was therefore issued as early as 28 September 2016.

Tropical Storm Matthew developed within the strong tropical wave located close to the southern group of the Lesser Antilles Arc. It was then observed around 55 km south-west of Santa Lucía in the southern group of the Lesser Antilles. This first early warning reflected the uncertainty demonstrated in outputs from models and the different scenarios that could potentially affect Cuba according to these outputs. The likelihood of the hurricane hitting eastern Cuba between Sunday 2 and Monday 3 October was also considered, given the rapid intensification of the system in the waters south of Cuba in the following 48 hours.

The track cone of 28 September was also presented (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. Track Cone of Tropical Storm Matthew

TEXT IN FIGURE [Tropical Storm MatthewPosition: 13.4˚N, 60.7˚WMax. W: 95 km/hMin. P: 1008 hPaMov: West 33 km/h

28 September 2016, Time: 11.00 a.m.National Forecasting Centre, INSMET]

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3), p. 3

At 1300 UTC on 29 September 2016, the National Forecasting Centre of the Meteorology Institute issued Early Warning 2, which maintained uncertainty regarding the phenomenon’s track since the forecast models continued to suggest a polar trough over the eastern part of the continent, which would extend to the south-eastern Gulf of Mexico. The interaction between this trough and Hurricane Matthew would subsequently result in its movement toward the northwest and north, most likely between the seas south of Haiti and eastern Cuba. It is important to note that the most up-to-date information also suggested that eastern Cuba would likely be hit by the hurricane between Monday 3 and Tuesday 4 October.

Fig. 2. Model track guidance initialized at 1200 UTC on 29 September 2016

Early Warning 3 declared that Matthew was already an intense hurricane in the central Caribbean Sea and that the provinces between Camagüey and Guantánamo needed to remain on high alert to the evolution of the intense tropical system as it presented a serious danger to eastern Cuba, in particular the easternmost part. It confirmed that the category 4 hurricane hit between Monday 3 and Tuesday 4 October 2016.

Further information on Matthew would be issued in the regular tropical cyclone warnings issued by the Forecasting Centre of the Meteorology Institute, firstly every 6 hours and then every 3 hours, as it approached Cuba and during its crossing until it moved further north, according to the Operational Plan of Cuba's National Forecasting Centre.

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3), p. 4

Fig. 3 Track of Hurricane Matthew over eastern Cuba.

TEXT IN FIGURE [Official TrackLimit of Area of Vortical CalmLimit of Ring of Max. WindsLimit of Hurricane WindsLimit of Tropical Storm Winds

Exit: Bahía de MataEntry: Punta Caleta

Hurricane MatthewOfficial Track over CubaNational Forecasting Centre, INSMET

Passage of Hurricane Matthew over Cuba

The centre of Hurricane Matthew hit the easternmost region of Cuba in the early hours of the night (1900-2000 UTC) on 4 October near Punta Caleta on the southern coast of Guantánamo province. It hit as an intense hurricane classified under category 4 out of 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Maximum sustained winds of 220-230 km per hour were recorded, with stronger gusts and a minimum central pressure of 949 hectoPascal at the centre's landfall. When the centre of Matthew made landfall in Guantánamo province, the central area of calm, or “eye”, was 15 km in diameter as measured by radar and corroborated by the zones in which calm was recorded. This is the area delimited by broken black lines on both sides of the track in Figure 3. Very strong winds and more intense phenomena occurred alongside the eyewall. The ring of maximum winds hit Maisí, the easternmost settlement in Cuba, over a 5-6 hour period, as well as Baracoa, a city located further west. This phenomenon also occurred on the northern and southern sides of Jamal, as well as other settlements located within the area affected by the ring of maximum winds, represented in Figure 3 as the areas delimited by broken red lines. Its track over land measured 28 km in diameter.

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3), p. 5

Hurricane-force maximum sustained winds (one-minute average) reached a line located 42 km west of the track (fine continuous red line in Fig. 3), crossing near San Antonio del Sur (Caujerí Valley) and departing westward via the northern coast, not far from the city of Moa. These hurricane-force winds hit the municipalities of Maisí, Baracoa and Imías, as well as the eastern half of the municipalities of Yateras and San Antonio del Sur.

The hurricane and tropical storm winds affected these areas over 5-6 hours, owing to the hurricane’s slow movement after landfall when its speed of movement dropped to around 6 km/h. By the end of the night on 4 October, it began to move at a speed of around 10 km/h, reaching the sea towards the north, through Bahía de Mata, to the east and close to the city of Baracoa.

Table 1. shows values of weather variables recorded as a result of the passage of the intense hurricane Matthew through Cuba. This table shows estimated maximum sustained winds (one-minute average) and maximum gusts recorded at Cuban weather stations during the passage of Hurricane Matthew through eastern Cuban territory. It is important to note that the last significant gust recorded at the Maisí weather station was measured at 245 km/h, moving south-south-east at 0156 UTC on 5 October; the measuring equipment subsequently broke down.

The calm zone was observed in the area of La Máquina, the municipal capital of Maisí, at the end of the night on 4 October and lasted approximately 25-30 minutes. Other locations in the Maisí municipality where calm was observed were the following: Sabana, around midnight where a period of calm lasting 30 minutes was reported, after which very strong hurricane winds were observed; Río Seco at 2200 UTC where a period of calm lasted approximately 1 hour and 15 minutes; Playa Blanca, where a period of calm began at around 2200 UTC and lasted until 0000 UTC or 0030 UTC the next day (approximately 2 hours and 30 minutes), after which winds and precipitation increased in intensity; Casimba, where the period of calm lasted approximately 10 to 12 minutes; and Boca de Jauco, where a period of calm lasting approximately 2 hours was observed between 2000 UTC and 2200 UTC.

In the municipality of Baracoa, in Bahía de Mata, a period of calm lasting approximately 30 minutes was observed at around 0200 UTC. In Jamal, there was a period of calm from 1100 UTC until 1130 UTC. In La Asunción (municipal capital of Baracoa), a period of calm lasting only around 45 minutes was recorded at 0100 UTC, after which winds once again escalated in the opposite direction. In Capiro, Mosquitero, calm was observed between 2230 UTC and 0000 UTC.

Table 1. Values of weather variables recorded during the passage of Hurricane Matthew through the eastern provinces of Cuba.

Weather Minimum One-minute Maximum gust Maximu Total rainfall Period of

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3), p. 6

Stationpressure at

sea level (day and time UTC)

average of estimated maximum

winds (km/h) (ddff, day and

time UTC)

recorded km/h(ddff, day and

time UTC)

m rainfall in 24

hours in mm (day

and month)

during period

affected(day XX to

day YY)

calm(duration, start and

end time in UTC)

GUANTÁNAMO

P de Maisí78369

968.8 (05.10 - 01:50

Z)

200 140º(05.10 - 01:20

UTC)245 1400

(05.10 - 01:56 Z)542.4 04.10

661.304.10 – 05.10 No

Jamal78356

958.6(05.10 - 02:30

Z)190 160 º

(04.10 - 22:00 Z)280 2000

(05.10 - 04:50 Z)174.304.10

191.904.10 – 05.10

30 min(03:00 - 03:30 Z)

Caujerí78319

989.7(04.10 – 22:00

Z)155 1100

(05.10 - 20:10 Z)130 2500

(04.10 - 21:00 Z)

213.904.10

400.004.10 – 05.10 No

Palenque de Yateras

78334

992.0(05.10 - 05:00

Z)140 3600

(05.10 - 20:50 Z) ----- 221.504.10

377.74.10 – 05.10 No

Guantánamo

78368

991.6(04.10 - 20:10

Z)17 0220

(04.10 - 19:50 Z)15 022º

(04.10 - 20:30 Z)112.704.10

118.704.10 – 05.10 No

HOLGUÍN

Jíquima78362

1002.1 (05.10 – 0700Z)

31 020º(04.10-1930Z) 26 022º

(04.10 -1837Z)69.8

05.1098.2

04.10 – 05.10 No

Punta Lucrecia78365

997.4 (05.10-0940Z)

- - 12.7 5.10

24.04.10 – 6.10

No

Guaro78370

994.0 (05.10-0800Z) 36 045º

(04.10-1500Z) 60 045º(04.10 -14.57Z)

63.2 04.10

91.7 04.10 – 05.10

1 h 55 min(24.55 – 0250Z)

Pinares de Mayarí78371

933.0 (05.10-0700Z) - - 82.9

04.10117.0

04.10 – 06.10 No

Holguín78372

1002.2 (05.10-1800Z) 33 49 270º

(05.10 -1700Z)32.7

05.1063.7

04.10 – 06.10No

Velazco78378

1001.0 (05.10-2045Z) 57 110º

(04.10-1930Z)61 280º

(05.10 -2137Z)58.7

05.1058.7

04.10 – 05.10No

LAS TUNASPuerto Padre78358

1002.3 (05.10-2140 Z)

45 060º(04.10–18:30Z)

65 060º(04.10–18:50Z)

49.0 04.10

73.3 04.10–05.10

No

Las Tunas78357

1003.1 (05.10-2100Z)

44 050º(04.10-17:40 Z)

55 km/h- 050º(04.10-19:14 Z)

56.0 04.10

80.3 04.10-05.10 No

GRANMA

Cabo Cruz78360

1004.0 (04.10 - 2100

Z)46 010º

(04.10 - 17:45 Z)58 010º

(04.10 - 17:40 Z)8.0

05.108.2

04.10 – 05.10 No

Manzanillo78359

1004.3(05.10 - 08:00

40 270º(05.10 - 22:15 Z)

54 270 º(05.10 - 22:17 Z)

17.605.10

25.404.10 – 05.10 No

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3), p. 7

Z)Jucarito78361

1004.6(5.10 – 21:00

Z)18 090º

(05.10 - 22:00 Z)75 290º

(05.10 - 15:12 Z)12.205.10

15.204.10 – 05.10 No

Veguitas78377

1004.8(04.10 - 20:00

Z)1004.8

(05.10 - 08:07 Z)

7 030º(04.10 - 13:00 Z)

34 110º(04.10 - 18:32 Z)

6.904.10

12.04.10 – 05.10 No

Rough seas and coastal floods during the passage of Hurricane Matthew through eastern provinces of Cuba.

Of the six eastern provinces, only two recorded no coastal floods: Las Tunas and Granma. On the northern coast of Las Tunas, rough seas with waves measuring between 3 and 5 metres were observed; this is based on reports from the Punta Lucrecia station, which recorded waves measuring between 4 and 6 metres. The station at Cayo Sabinal in Camagüey reported waves of up to 4 metres on 5 October. On the Granma coast, which leads to the Columbus Channel, waves of up to 4 metres were recorded in the late afternoon at the Cabo Cruz station and lighthouse.

In the province of Santiago de Cuba, waves measuring between 3 and 4 metres were recorded from 1600 UTC on 3 October. These increased to 5 metres the following day, raising the sea level by 1.7 metres due to the combined action of the high water and high surf.1 Coastal flooding was reported in low areas of this province, reaching 70 metres inland and cutting off the road between Santiago and Guantánamo.

Waves measuring between 6 and 8 metres were observed on the southern coast of the province of Guantánamo between 4 and 5 October, reaching 9 metres in the municipality of Maisí as the hurricane centre hit. These waves caused the destruction of the Boca de Jauco bridge (see Fig. 4). A 3 to 4 metre increase in sea levels led to flooding that penetrated up to 100 metres inland, primarily affecting the settlements of Imías, San Antonio de Sur and Maisí. Significant waves measuring between 5 and 6 metres were reported on the northern coast, resulting in a set-up of 3.5 metres in Baracoa. Coastal floods of between 300 and 500 metres occurred at the Baracoa waterfront, reaching the streets of Máximo Gómez, Castillo Duani and Flor Crombet.

1High surf (refers to wave setup).

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3), p. 8

Fig. 4 Erosion of the Boca de Jauco bridge.

Waves of between 2 and 5 metres were recorded in Gibara, Holguín province at 1500 UTC on 5 October (see Fig. 5). The Cabo Lucrecia weather station recorded waves of between 4 and 6 metres at 1400 UTC, which began to drop after nightfall. These coastal floods were classified as light to moderate, with water penetrating 100 to 250 metres inland. Set-up was estimated at between 1 and 1.6 metres.

Fig. 5 Waves along the Gibara coast.

The following graphs show records of weather variables (minimum pressure, maximum winds and gusts) observed at the Maisí and Jamal weather stations.

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3), p. 9

Anemogram from Maisí weather station. The Dines recording equipment was damaged by the intensity of the hurricane winds.

The

Provinces Name Rainfall Maximum4 October 2016

5 October 2016

Guantánamo Punta Maisí Weather Station 661.3 542.4 542.4 118.9

Guantánamo Tele-correo Paraguay 245.0 245.0 0.0 245.0

Guantánamo Tele-correo Guaibanó 363.9 363.9 363.9 0.0

Guantánamo Tele-correo Puriales de Caujerí 306.2 306.2 306.2 0.0

Guantánamo Tele-correo Imías 299.0 299.0 299.0 0.0Santiago de Cuba Palma Complex 271.6 172.8 172.8 98.80

Holguín Moa Reservoir 241.1 205.3 205.3 35.80

Guantánamo Tele-correo Jamaica 225.0 225.0 0.0 225.00

Las Tunas Tele-correo Bartle 208.0 106.0 106.0 102.00

Guantánamo Tele-correo Manuel Támes 199.9 135.0 64.9 135.00

Santiago de Cuba

Tele-correo Aserradero 181.0 181.0 0.0 181.00

Santiago de Cuba

Tele-correo Palma Soriano 177.7 132.7 132.7 45.00

Santiago de Cuba

Tele-correo San Benito de Mayarí 154.0 132.5 132.5 21.50

Guantánamo Clotilde Reservoir 162.0 140.0 22.0 140.00

Guantánamo Tele-correo Bayate 166.5 126.5 126.5 40.00

Holguín UEB Moa 160.0 139.0 139.0 21.00

Holguín Moa Diversion Dam 150.4 138.0 138.0 15.20Santiago de Cuba

Charco Mono Reservoir 151.4 82.9 82.9 68.50

Holguín Calabaza 151.1 132.7 132.7 18.40

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3), p. 10

RA IV/HC-39/Doc. 3.2(3), p. 11

Track of Hurricane Matthew between 28 September and 9 October 2016.

TEXT IN FIGURE [IMPORTANT POINTS IN HURRICANE MATTHEW’S TRACK(October 2016)

Exited Cuba: Bahía de Mata, GuantánamoEntered Cuba: Punta Caleta, Guantánamo]

Highlights

Although Matthew was an intense category 4 hurricane and hit an area of Cuba in which the population was not used to such intense hurricanes, there was no loss of human life.

Good media coverage ensured inhabitants were warned, could make timely arrangements and stay informed and up-to-date with regard to the influence of winds, rainfall and the sea for each phase of Hurricane Matthew’s evolution and track as it approached eastern Cuba.

Cohesive work between the National Civil Defence Staff and the Meteorology Institute enabled by specialists at the National Forecasting Centre, ensuring arrangements could be made and necessary steps could be taken in the time given.

Coordination between young specialists and older, more experienced specialists. Good attitude among young specialists when taking on different roles assigned,

and their enthusiasm to actively participate in all activities implemented to tackle this dangerous hurricane.

Collaboration with provincial centres and forecasting specialists, especially with the Forecasting Department of the Guantánamo Province Meteorological Centre, to ensure all required information was provided.