3. From personality traits to election prediction – an ... · Social media research 2000-2013 0...

3. From personality traits to

election prediction – an overview of current

approaches in social media research

1

Weller, K. (2015). Accepting the challenges of social media research. Online Information Review, 39(3), 281-289. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/OIR-03-2015-0069

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400

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600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Twitter

Facebook

YouTube

Blogs

Wikis

Foursquare

LinkedIn

MySpace

Number of publications per year, which mention the respective social media platform‘s name in their title. Scopus Title Search. http://kwelle.wordpress.com/2014/04/07/bibliometric-analysis-of-social-media-research/

http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/OIR-03-2015-0069







http://kwelle.wordpress.com/2014/04/07/bibliometric-analysis-of-social-media-research/











Model organisms in social media research?

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_organism#/media/File:Drosophila_melanogaster_-_side_(aka).jpg

Tufekci, Z. 2014. Big Questions for Social Media Big Data: Representativeness, Validity and Other Methodological Pitfalls. In Proceedings of the Eighth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_organism/media/File:Drosophila_melanogaster_-_side_(aka).jpg




Reasons?

Accessibility

Legal framework

Ethical framework

4

5

The social media research landscape

Social media research – some insights from bibliometrics

Scopus

Web of Science

Google Scholar

457,000

4,991 19,440

Scopus 21,000 titles from more than 5,000 international publishers, 20,000 peer-

reviewed journals (including 2,600 open access journals), 390 trade publications, 370 book series, 5.5 million conference papers

(TITLE-ABS-KEY("social media") OR TITLE-ABS-KEY("social web") OR TITLE-ABS-KEY("social software") OR TITLE-ABS-KEY("web 2.0")) AND PUBYEAR > 1999

Social media research 2000-2013

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1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

No. of publications (Scopus)

Scopus search, conducted March 2014: (TITLE-ABS-KEY("social media") OR TITLE-ABS-KEY("social web") OR TITLE-ABS-KEY("social software") OR TITLE-ABS-KEY("web 2.0")) AND PUBYEAR > 1999

Scopus: 2000-2013 by country

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

United States

United Kingdom

Germany

Australia

China

Spain

Canada

Italy

France

Taiwan

Netherlands

South Korea

Finland

Austria

Japan

Greece

India

Singapore

Switzerland

Hong Kong

Ireland

Scopus: 2000-2013 by subject area

10650; 36%

5542; 19%

2384

2288

2151

1535

773

772

65

Computer Science

Social Sciences

Engineering

Medicine

Business, Management and Accounting

Mathematics

Arts and Humanities

Decision Sciences

Psychology

Nursing

Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology

Health Professions

Environmental Science

Earth and Planetary Sciences

Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics

Physics and Astronomy

Materials Science

Multidisciplinary

Neuroscience

Immunology and Microbiology

Chemical Engineering

Veterinary

Dentistry

Chemistry

Energy

Scopus: 2000-2013 popular keywords

Social networks (897), Social network (657)

User interfaces (1,007)

Social networking (online) (2,291)

Facebook (847)

Knowledge management (860)

Web services (869) Information systems (810)

Twitter (667)

Semantics(765), Semantic Web(669)

Communication(650)

Information technology (639)

E-learning (623), Students(579) Education(520) Teaching (504)

Scopus search, conducted March 2014: (TITLE-ABS-KEY("social media") OR TITLE-ABS-KEY("social web") OR TITLE-ABS-KEY("social software") OR TITLE-ABS-KEY("web 2.0")) AND PUBYEAR > 1999

Social Media Research: Topics

Political communication / elections Activism Popular culture, memes Brand communication, marketing Journalism (incl. agenda setting, citizen journalism, TV

backchannel) Crisis communication, disaster response Scholarly communication Language And many more

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WoS: 2000-2013 by year

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200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

WoS publications

Scopus and WoS: 2000-2013 by year

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

WoS

Scopus

WoS: 2000-2013 by research areas

1157; 24%

835; 17%

586; 12%

583; 12%

492; 10%

328; 7%

234; 5%

212; 5%

199; 4%

168; 4%

COMPUTER SCIENCE

INFORMATION SCIENCE LIBRARY SCIENCE

BUSINESS ECONOMICS

COMMUNICATION

EDUCATION EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH

ENGINEERING

PSYCHOLOGY

HEALTH CARE SCIENCES SERVICES

SOCIAL SCIENCES OTHER TOPICS

SOCIOLOGY

Google Scholar

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What is being studied – in the social sciences?

Scopus: Social sciences 2000-2013

5,542

Scopus: 2000-2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Scopus total

Scopus social sciance

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

United StatesUnited Kingdom

AustraliaSpain

CanadaGermany

ChinaNetherlands

ItalyTaiwan

SwedenFinlandFrance

Hong KongNew Zealand

SingaporeSouth Korea

GreeceIndia

AustriaTurkey

DenmarkMalaysia

BrazilIreland

SwitzerlandBelgium

IsraelPortugal

South AfricaJapan

RomaniaNorwayMexicoEstonia

HungaryNigeria

Colombia

Scopus: 2000-2013

Scopus: 2000-2013

Article; 3858; 70%

Conference Paper; 983; 18%

Review; 301; 5%

Article in Press;

135; 2%

Editorial; 61; 1%

Book Chapter; 57; 1%

Conference Review; 53; 1% Note; 37; 1%

Short Survey; 36; 1%

Letter; 10; 0%

Book; 9; 0%

Erratum; 2; 0%

Scopus: 2000-2013 popular keywords (social science)

Web 2.0(1,466) Social media(1,364) Internet(552) World Wide Web(448) Social networking (online)(300) Students(277) E-learning(275) Facebook(248) Teaching(226) Information systems(213) Twitter(210) Human(199) Humans(196) Education(188)

Communication(179) Social software(177) Technology(177) Article(172) Social networking(170) Social networks(167) Social Media(166) Engineering education(160) Research(149) Knowledge management(137) Blogs(131) Higher education(128) Information technology(119) Social network(119) Web services(119)

Social Networks(101) Learning(96) User interfaces(96) Collaborative learning(95) Collaboration(94) Websites(91) Social networking sites(90) Wiki(86) Libraries(84) Methodology(84) Curricula(77) Innovation(77) Learning systems(74) Marketing(74) Blogging(73) Design(71) Male(71) Academic libraries(70) Virtual reality(70) Female(68) Privacy(68)

Top journals (social science papers)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Information Communication and Society

Public Relations Review

Econtent

Profesional De La Informacion

Proceedings of the Asist Annual Meeting

New Media and Society

First Monday

Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences

18th Americas Conference on Information Systems…

Cutting Edge Technologies in Higher Education

Examples: top cited papers and topics

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Top cited papers (more than 100 citations)

Authors Title Year Source title Cited by

Boulos, M.N.K., Wheeler, S. The emerging Web 2.0 social software: An enabling suite of sociable technologies in health and health care education 2007

Health Information and Libraries Journal 304

Adamic, L., Adar, E. How to search a social network 2005 Social Networks 208

Greenhow, C., Robelia, B., Hughes, J.E.

Learning, teaching, and scholarship in a digital age: Web 2.0 and classroom research: What path should we take now? 2009 Educational Researcher 166

Xiang, Z., Gretzel, U. Role of social media in online travel information search 2010 Tourism Management 146

Wheeler, S., Yeomans, P., Wheeler, D.

The good, the bad and the wiki: Evaluating student-generated content for collaborative learning 2008

British Journal of Educational Technology 117

Waters, R.D., Burnett, E., Lamm, A., Lucas, J.

Engaging stakeholders through social networking: How nonprofit organizations are using Facebook 2009 Public Relations Review 116

Ajjan, H., Hartshorne, R. Investigating faculty decisions to adopt Web 2.0 technologies: Theory and empirical tests 2008

Internet and Higher Education 114

Ritzer, G., Jurgenson, N. Production, Consumption, Prosumption: The nature of capitalism in the age of the digital 'prosumer' 2010

Journal of Consumer Culture 113

Marwick, A.E., Boyd, D. I tweet honestly, I tweet passionately: Twitter users, context collapse, and the imagined audience 2011 New Media and Society 111

Maness, J.M. Library 2.0 theory: Web 2.0 and its implications for libraries 2006 Webology 110

Bertot, J.C., Jaeger, P.T., Grimes, J.M.

Using ICTs to create a culture of transparency: E-government and social media as openness and anti-corruption tools for societies 2010

Government Information Quarterly 109

Beldarrain, Y. Distance education trends: Integrating new technologies to foster student interaction and collaboration 2006 Distance Education 109

Top cited papers: topics

1. Email analysis; Online communities; Small world experiment; Social networks

2. Classroom research; Computers and learning; Educational reform; Instructional technologies; Research methodology; Technology

3. Internet marketing; Online tourism domain; Search engine; Social media; Travel information search

4. Facebook; Nonprofit organizations; Social media; Social networking

5. Decomposed theory of planned behavior; Emerging technologies; Factor analysis; Faculty adoption; Faculty perceptions; Web 2.0

6. Consumption; Facebook; Prosumption; Social networking sites; Web 2.0

7. audience; context; identity; micro-celebrity; self-presentation; social media; Twitter

8. Blog; Library 2.0; Mashup; RSS; Social network; Streaming media; Tagging; Web 2.0; Wiki

9. E-government; ICT; Social media; Transparency

Examples: Topics by years

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Topics 2012 (keywords used more than ten times)

Social media(418), Web 2.0(272), Internet(107), Social networking (online)(84), Information systems(73), Social Media(72), Human(68), Humans(68), World Wide Web(67), Facebook(62), Students(61), Article(57), Twitter(56), E-learning(50), Social networks(45), Engineering education(43), Communication(38), Social network(35), Research(34), Teaching(33), Social networking(31), Education(30), Methodology(30), Female(29), Male(29), Social Networks(29), Higher education(27), Technology(26), Information technology(25), Adult(24), Learning(21), Collaboration(20), Knowledge management(20), Psychological aspect(20), Social networking sites(20), Academic libraries(19), Collaborative learning(19), Social Networking(19), Websites(19), Blogging(17), Learning systems(17), Marketing(17), United States(17), User-generated content(17), Wiki(17), Blogs(16), Surveys(16), Innovation(15), Libraries(15), Mass media(15), Social sciences computing(15), YouTube(15), New media(14), Privacy(14), Public relations(14), University(14), Computer aided instruction(13), Content analysis(13), Microblogging(13), Motivation(13), Public diplomacy(13), Student(13), Universities(13), Egypt(12), Informal learning(12), Online learning(12), Social movements(12), Young Adult(12), Blog(11), Canada(11), Data mining(11), Democracy(11), GIS(11), Media role(11), Nursing education(11), Participation(11), Personal learning environment(11), Social learning(11), Social software(11), Virtual reality(11), Web services(11)

Topics 2013 (keywords used more than ten times)

Social media(512) , Web 2.0(171), Internet(134), Facebook(99), Twitter(96), Social networking (online)(76), Communication(50), Social Media(50), Social network(49), Human(47), World Wide Web(47), Humans(43), Article(36), Students(35), Social networking(34), Social networks(34), Teaching(33), E-learning(28), Information technology(27); Higher education(26), Politics(26), Education(24), Marketing(24), Research(24), Technology(24), Mass media(23), Methodology(23), Male(22), Public relations(22), Privacy(21), Female(20), Media role(20), Social networking sites(20), Computer aided instruction(19), Academic libraries(18), Engineering education(18), Knowledge management(18), United States(18), YouTube(18), Blog(17), Media(17), Blogs(16), Collaboration(16), Industry(16), Libraries(16), Social software(16); Websites(16), Wiki(16), Adult(15), Arab Spring(15), Commerce(15), Learning(15), New media(15), Activism(14), Collaborative learning(13), Ethics(13), GIS(13), Gender(13), Journalism(13), Participation(13), Youth(13), Blogging(12), Content Analysis(12), Data mining(12), Interactivity(12), Library 2.0(12), Psychological aspect(12), Social Networks(12), Surveys(12), China(11), Information systems(11), Political participation(11), Tools(11), Web services(11)

Examples: Topics by platforms

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Facebook in case studies

Egypt

Students (impression management)

Education

Health (alcohol, tobacco, depression)

Protests

Sociality, connectivity

Cultural differences

Dating, intimacy, emotional disclosure

Customers

Games

African American users

Gender

Language use

Music industry

Twitter in case studies Elections (prediction)

Public debate

Activism

Non-profit organizations

Journalists

Agenda setting

Government

E-learning, classroom, academic libraries

Individual pesonality

Literacy

Geo-corpora

YouTube in case studies

Government

Education

Medical education

Promotion, marketing (Tobacco marketing)

Libraries

Arab spring

Fan culture

Media economy

Politics

Online protests

Tourism

Blogs in case studies

eGovernment Politics, Protests Education (language education) Music industry Customers/ marketing Travel, tourism Journalism Writers and audiences Discursive analysis Adolescent bloggers Blogshops, art & design, creativity Libraries Blogs and podcasts Health and daily life

Wikipedia in case studies

Education

Speech acts (language analysis)

Collaboration

Libraries

Elections

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Highly cited

Larsson A.O., Moe H. (2012). Studying political microblogging: Twitter users in the 2010 Swedish election campaign. New Media and Society, 14(5), 729-747.

Jungherr A., Jurgens P., Schoen H. (2012). Why the pirate party won the German election of 2009 or the trouble with predictions: A response to tumasjan, A., sprenger, T. O., sander, P. G., & welpe, I. M. "predicting elections with twitter: What 140 characters reveal about political sentiment". Social Science Computer Review, 30(2), 229-234.

Spotlight twitter and elections

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Twitter and elections (Scopus and Web of Science)

Weller, K. (2014). Twitter und Wahlen: Zwischen 140 Zeichen und Milliarden von Tweets. In: R. Reichert (Ed.), Big Data: Analysen zum digitalen Wandel von Wissen, Macht und Ökonomie (pp. 239-257). Bielefeld: transcript.

Year of election

Name of election Country/region No. of papers (2013)

Date of election

2008 40th Canadian General Election Canada 1 14.10.2008

2009 European Parliament election, 2009 Europe 1 07.06.2009

2009 German federal election, 2009 Germany 2 27.09.2009

2010 2010 UK general election United Kingdom 4 06.05.2010

2010 South Korean local elections, 2010 South Korea 1 02.06.2010

2010 Dutch general election, 2010 Netherlands 2 09.06.2010

2010 Australian federal election, 2010 Australia 1 21.08.2010

2010 Swedish general election, 2010 Sweden 1 19.09.2010

2010 Midterm elections / United States House of Representatives elections, 2010 USA 4 02.11.2010

2010 Gubernational elections: Georgia USA 1 02.11.2010

2010 Gubernational elections: Ohio USA 1 02.11.2010

2010 Gubernational elections: Rhode Island USA 1 02.11.2010

2010 Gubernational elections: Vermont USA 1 02.11.2010

2010 2010 superintendent elections South Korea 1 17.12.2010

2011 Baden-Württemberg state election, 2011 Germany 1 27.03.2011

2011 Rhineland-Palatinate state election, 2011 Germany 1 27.03.2011

2011 Scottish parliament election 2011 Scotland 1 05.05.2011

2011 Singapore’s 16th parliamentary General Election Singapore 1 07.05.2011

2011 Norwegian local elections, 2011 Norway 2 12.09.2011

2011 2011 Danish parliamentary election Denmark 2 15.09.2011

2011 Berlin state election, 2011 Germany 2 18.09.2011

2011 Gubernational elections: West Virginia USA 1 04.10.2011

2011 Gubernational elections: Louisiana USA 1 22.10.2011

2011 Swiss federal election, 2011 Switzerland 1 23.10.2011

2011 2011 Seoul mayoral elections South Korea 1 26.10.2011

2011 Gubernational eletions: Kentucky USA 1 08.11.2011

2011 Gubernational elections: Mississippi USA 1 08.11.2011

2011 Spanish national election 2011 Spain 1 20.11.2011

2012 Queensland State election Australia 1 24.03.2012

2012 South Korean legislative election, 2012 South Korea 1 11.04.2012

2012 French presidential election, 2012 France 2 22.04.2012

2012 Mexican general election, 2012 Mexico 1 01.07.2012

2012 United States presidential election, 2012 / United States House of Representatives elections, 2012

USA 17 06.11.2012

2012 South Korean presidential election, 2012 South Korea 2 19.12.2012

2013 Ecuadorian general election, 2013 Ecuador 1 17.02.2013

2013 Venezuelan presidential election, 2013 Venezuela 1 14.04.2013

2013 Paraguayan general election, 2013 Paraguay 1 21.04.2013

Participation

43

#egypt

#Egypt / Arab spring

Role of Facebook during #egypt?

Tufekci Z., Wilson C. (2012). Social Media and the Decision to Participate in Political Protest: observations From Tahrir Square. Journal of Communication, 62(2), 363-379.

Newspapers vs. Social media

Hamdy N., Gomaa E.H. (2012). Framing the Egyptian Uprising in Arabic Language Newspapers and Social Media. Journal of Communication, 62(2), 195-211.

Activsm

#occupy:

Juris J.S. (2012). Reflections on #Occupy Everywhere: Social media, public space, and emerging logics of aggregation. American Ethnologist, 39(2), 259-279.

Indonesia:

Lim M. (2013). Many Clicks but Little Sticks: Social Media Activism in Indonesia. Journal of Contemporary Asia, 43(4), 636-657.

Spain:

Gonzalez-Bailon S., Borge-Holthoefer J., Moreno Y. (2013). Broadcasters and Hidden Influentials in Online Protest Diffusion. American Behavioral Scientist, 57(7), 943-965.

eGovernment Overview

Bertot J.C., Jaeger P.T., Hansen D. (2012). The impact of polices on government social media usage: Issues, challenges, and recommendations. Government Information Quarterly, 29(1), 30-40.

Citizen sourcing

Nam T. (2012). Suggesting frameworks of citizen-sourcing via Government 2.0. Government Information Quarterly, 29(1), 12-20.

EU

Bonson E., Torres L., Royo S., Flores F. (2012). Local e-government 2.0: Social media and corporate transparency in municipalities. Government Information Quarterly, 29(2). 123-132.

Mexico

Picazo-Vela S., Gutierrez-Martinez I., Luna-Reyes L.F. (2012). Understanding risks, benefits, and strategic alternatives of social media applications in the public sector. Government Information Quarterly, 29(4), 504-511.

Social media use by government officials:

Kavanaugh A.L., Fox E.A., Sheetz S.D., Yang S., Li L.T., Shoemaker D.J., Natsev A., Xie L. (2012). Social media use by government: From the routine to the critical. Government Information Quarterly, 29(4), 480-491.

Health

48

Personality

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Personality

E.g. Combining Big Five personality tests with Facebook data.

Big Five personality traits can be predicted from the public information they share on Facebook.

50

Golbeck, J., Robles, C., & Turner, K. (2011). Predicting personality with social media (p. 253). ACM Press. http://doi.org/10.1145/1979742.1979614

Filter bubbles and homophily

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Ongoing topics

Learning / education marketing

target audience / user studies

Journalism / mass media

Disappearing?

crisis communication metadata

Predictions

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Google Flu Trends

“In short, the initial version of GFT was part flu detector, part winter detector.“

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Lazer, D., Kennedy, R., King, G., & Vespignani, A. (2014). The parable of Google Flu: Traps in big data analysis. Science, 343(6176), 1203-1205.

Unemployment

Nikolaos Askitas / Klaus F. Zimmermann, Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit IZA DP No. 4201. June 2009. Daten: Google

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Elections

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Metaxas, P. T., Mustafaraj, E., & Gayo-Avello, D. (2011, 9-11 Oct. 2011). How (not) to predict elections. Paper presented at the Privacy, security, risk and trust (passat) conference, Boston, MA. Doi: 10.1109/PASSAT/SocialCom.2011.98

Others

• Eurovision Song Contest winners

• Box Office Revenue

• Stock market

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Sentiment analysis

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Sentiment Analysis

Mainly based on dictionaries such as LIWC or ANEW

Dodds, P. S., & Danforth, C. M. (2010). Measuring the Happiness of Large-Scale Written Expression: Songs, Blogs, and Presidents. Journal of Happiness Studies, 11(4), 441–456. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-009-9150-9

Sentiment Analysis

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Bakliwal, et al. (2013). Sentiment Analysis of Political Tweets: Towards an Accurate Classifier. In Workshop on Language Analysis in Social Media (LASM 2013), Atlanta, Georgia, US. Retrieved from: http://www.mpi-sws.org/~cristian/LASM_2013_files/LASM/pdf/LASM06.pdf

Conclusions 3

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Lesson learned

„Social media research“ is not a coherent research field. Influences from lots of different disciplines. Some disciplines are still isolated, not all equally advanced in technical tasks.

Comparability across different studies is difficult.

Topics emerge and disappear again.

Challenge of keeping track of what is going on – across disciplines.

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If you have time to read 3 papers…

Lazer, D., Kennedy, R., King, G., & Vespignani, A. (2014). The parable of Google Flu: Traps in big data analysis. Science, 343(6176), 1203-1205.

Metaxas, P. T., Mustafaraj, E., & Gayo-Avello, D. (2011, 9-11 Oct. 2011). How (not) to predict elections. Paper presented at the Privacy, security, risk and trust (passat) conference, Boston, MA. Doi: 10.1109/PASSAT/SocialCom.2011.98

Zimmer, M., & Proferes, N. (2014). A topology of Twitter research: disciplines, methods, and ethics. Aslib Journal of Information Management, 66(3), 250–261.

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