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3D Printing and the Future (or Demise) of Intellectual Property John Hornick April 2015
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Transcript of 3 d printingfuturedemiseinside3dprinting150412
3D Printing and the Future (or Demise) of Intellectual Property
John Hornick
April 2015
2
First, a Disclaimer
“Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they the shadows of things that May be?”
» Ebenezer Scrooge, to the Third Spirit
Keep in Mind . . .
4
Keep in Mind
Tipping into the mainstream
Everything will change when . . .
Implications
Why the Future (or Demise) of IP?
6
Three Reasons
Democratization of manufacturing
7
Three Reasons
“There is a persistent widespread belief that intellectual property law (and patents in particular) encourage innovation. This is intuitive, however, the evidence to the contrary is now overwhelming and the unavoidable conclusion is that intellectual property actually stifles innovation.”
Prof. Joshua Pearce, Materials Science, Mich Tech
8
Three Reasons
Away from Control
Why 3DP May Change Everything
10
Why It May Change Everything: Micro
No assembly required
Design freedom
Mass customization – Complexity = free
– Batches of one
Greener
11
Why It May Change Everything: Macro
Inconsistent situations?
– Renaissance???
– Repatriation of jobs
12
Why It May Change Everything: Macro
But – Disruption/destruction – Future sales
– Regional
– Distributed
How can we have both?
13
Why It May Change Everything: Macro
But – Disruption/destruction – Future sales
– Regional
– Distributed
How can we have both?
Thought Experiment
15
What Would Happen if?
Anyone could make things
with virtually any functionality
away from control?
16
What Would Happen if?
Anyone could make things
with virtually any functionality
away from control?
17
What Would Happen if?
Anyone could make things
with virtually any functionality
away from control?
Effect on:
– Traditional Business Models?
– IP?
18
Answer: Paradigm Shift
–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers
19
Answer: Paradigm Shift
–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers
Lines blur
20
Answer: Paradigm Shift
–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers
Lines will blur
Fundamentally different products
21
Answer: Paradigm Shift
–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers
Lines will blur
Fundamentally different products
BACK TO making, not buying
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Answer: Paradigm Shift
–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers
Lines will blur
Fundamentally different products
BACK TO making, not buying
–As democratization increases . . .
23
Answer: Paradigm Shift
IP increasingly irrelevant
24
Answer: Paradigm Shift
25
As democratization increases
As democratization increases
–IP increasingly irrelevant
–Customization replaces IP
26
As democratization increases
As democratization increases
–IP increasingly irrelevant
–Customization replaces IP
Trade secrets
Software
27
As democratization increases
As democratization increases
–IP increasingly irrelevant
–Customization replaces IP
–Trade secrets/software
–Non-IP-based models
IP Disruption Checklist
29
Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators
30
Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
31
Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
Away from control
3DP Today
33
3DP Today
$5K to $2M ($90K)
½ of all machines
67,000
1764
34
3DP in Aerospace
“This is the ultimate manufacturing method for us”
“This is the future of manufacturing”
– LEAP
Alabama
Weight
35
3DP in Aerospace
36
3DP in Automotive
3 Cool Cars
0 to 60 in 5 days
37
3DP in Healthcare
38
3DP in Healthcare
Facial Reconstruction
39
3DP in Healthcare
Heart sensor/defibrillator membrane
– Washington U, St. Louis, U of Illinois
2023
– University of Louisville
40
3DP in Healthcare Proof of concept customizable artificial heart
41
3DP in Healthcare
Proof of concept customizable artificial heart
42
3DP of Complex Structures
Disney
OwnPhone
Voxel8
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3DP of Complex Structures
MIT Center for Bits & Atoms
– 3D Assemblers
Atoms/molecules
Complete functional systems
Materials: Golden Age
45
Usual Suspects
– Plastics
– Metals
– Ceramics
– Food
– Glass
– Wood
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Star Trek Materials
NC State
– Flexible, stretchable
– Liquid at room temp
U of Warwick:
– Carbomorph
Chinese Academy of Science
– Self-forming metal
47
Star Trek Materials
Graphene – Flexible
– Transparent
– Conductive
– Harder than diamond
– 200x stronger than steel
48
Graphene
3DP Will Rock IP
50
Rocking the IP World
All IP Most tech/products
Gartner: $100B by 2018
51
Rocking the IP World 12,000 PATENTS/APPLICATIONS
52
Rocking the IP World
53
Rocking the IP World
54
Rocking the IP World
55
Rocking the IP World
Away from Control
56
Rocking the IP World
57
Rocking the IP World
Internet + 3DP AFC =
58
Rocking the IP World
Internet + 3DP AFC =
avoid
59
Rocking the IP World
Internet + 3DP =
defeat
60
Rocking the IP World
61
Rocking the IP World
“There is no reason for patent and trademark law to repeat the mistakes of copyright, but there is every reason to think that these mistakes will be repeated” Desai & Magliocca
IP Disruption Checklist Where Are We Now?
63
Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
64
Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
65
Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials Loughborough U FACTUM HSS
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . . . Continuous, High-Speed Fab-Grade Printer
66
Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
67
Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
68
Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale NE U NanoOPs
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
Focused Electron Beam Induced Deposition
69
Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
70
Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale --2013: 72,500 – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially kids
71
Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
72
Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
Away from control
73
Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
Away from control
What Will Happen Next?
75
Short Term
Within Control
Mass Production
76
Longer Term
Away from Control
– 5 Is
77
Longer Term
Away from Control
– 5 Is Infringement
78
Longer Term
Away from Control
– 5 Is Infringement
Identification
79
Longer Term
Away from Control
– 5 Is Infringement
Identification
Impractical or Impossible
80
Longer Term
Away from Control
– 5 Is Infringement
Identification
Impractical or Impossible
Irrelevant
81
Away from Control
82
Away from Control
83
Away from Control
84
Longer Term
Away from Control
Bigger Issue: Why buy brands?
85
Longer Term
Away from Control
Bigger Issue: Why buy brands?
Biggest issue: – Mass production
Why the Experts Are Wrong
87
Why the Experts Are Wrong
– “Most 3DP sales will be industrial”
– “Most homes will not have 3DP anytime soon”
– “Home 3DP will be unsophisticated”
88
Why the Experts Are Wrong
Except this one:
“We live in exponential times”
$5M vs. $400
89
Why the Experts Are Wrong
And this one:
“I think every home within 10 years, probably less than that, will have its own 3D printer, just as many homes now have a 2D or laser printer”
Andy Bird, Chairman, Disney International
90
Why the Experts Are Wrong
91
Why the Experts Are Wrong
Luinar TriBOT
92
Why the Experts Are Wrong
MINK PRINTEER
Disney:
93
Why the Experts Are Wrong
94
Why the Experts Are Wrong
My Vision
96
My Vision
Within Control
97
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
“We want our machines to make anything” in 5 years
Epson
98
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
99
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
100
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
101
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
102
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control
103
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – iFactory
104
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – iFactory
– Every home
105
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – iFactory
– Every home
– Any functionality
106
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – iFactory
– Every home
– Any functionality
– Easy as a breadmaker
107
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – iFactory
– Every home
– Any functionality
– Easy as a breadmaker
– IP increasingly irrelevant
108
When?
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten”
Bill Gates
109
Will we be Ready?
110
Will we be Ready?
“a substantial portion of manufacturers may be caught off-guard by the rapid changes underway”
111
Takeaways
Everything will change
112
Takeaways
Everything will change
–When you can make anything
113
Takeaways
Everything will change
–When you can make anything
IP, it’s not dead yet!
115
Disclaimer These materials are public information and have been prepared solely for educational and entertainment purposes to contribute to the understanding of U.S. intellectual property law. These materials reflect only the personal views of the authors and are not a source of legal advice. It is understood that each case is fact specific, and that the appropriate solution in any case will vary. Therefore, these materials may or may not be relevant to any particular situation. Thus, the authors and Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner, LLP cannot be bound either philosophically or as representatives of their various present and future clients to the comments expressed in these materials. The presentation of these materials does not establish any form of attorney-client relationship with the authors or Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner, LLP. While every attempt was made to ensure that these materials are accurate, errors or omissions may be contained therein, for which any liability is disclaimed.
