CLIMATE CHANGE AND VIETNAM’S COASTS. THOUSANDS OF INFORMATION CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES.

Boris Fabres

Consultant, Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD), Hanoi, Vietnam Email: bafabres@yahoo.com

CONSAL XIV, 21-22 April 2009, Hanoi, Vietnam

IIf CONSAL XIV was in October 2008 in Hanoif CONSAL XIV was in October 2008 in Hanoi

LLand – and – SSea – ea – AAtmosphere tmosphere IInterfacenterface

Sea Level Rise Tides

Sea Surface TemperatureWaves

Ocean Currents

Wind, Rainfall

River FlowAir Temperature

Land TemperatureUV Radiation

MULTIPLE EFFECTS and INTERACTIONS

Single or Additive, Feedbacks, Interactive, Non-linearPhysical, Chemical, Biological, Social

Timing, “After-Shocks”

Scale

CCoastal oastal VVulnerability: ulnerability: PPeople and eople and FFoodood

Each Dot (●) is 100 km2 Rice planted

Elevation Elevation + Poverty Elevation + Rice

Blue < 1m

Projected Temperature & Sea Level RiseProjected Temperature & Sea Level Rise

Cities at Risk

Sea Level

Sea Surface TemperaturePacific Ocean

1957-2006Sea Surface

Temperature South China

Sea

1982-1991

2000-2009

2020-2029

2040-2049

2060-2069

Monthly Max.30ºC+

1 ----- 4 mm/Y

Need for Information Integration Physical, Life and Social Sciences

● The Challenge More complex. Wider environmental, development and humanitarian issues than in the past

● Scales of Understanding Multiple stressors, unexpected results, coping capacities, feed- backs, macroeconomic capital flows, migration, structural change

● New Collaboration “Earth System Science”, “Global Change Science” combining traditional physical, life and social sciences

● Institutional Changes Organization, methods of work, information sharing, prioritizing and sequencing --- IPCC (2007) identified over 200 priority areas

● Communication Innovative, accurate and ethical campaigns, credible leadership

Coastal Climate Science Knowledge – “Deluge”

(2007) IPCC 4th Assessment > 18,300 scientific publications reviewed

(2006) 400,000 blogs discussing the environment and conservation

(2003-1971) >28,497 authors - biogeochemistry of coastal ecosystems

(2006-1993) Marine climate change literature increased exponentially

Number of Authors Social Sciences

Coastal Geomorphology

ResilienceAdaptation Vulnerability

Coral

Theses & Publications

Coastal Climate Science Knowledge – “Drought”

(2001) Only 28% papers on low income countries in high impact conservation journals

And 15% primary authors

(2000-1999) Co-authorship with local scientists on research in 48 least developed countries occurred in only 30% of papers

(2001-1992) In 4579 freshwater biology papers on Asia, only 1.6% authored or co- authored by Asia-based scientists

IPCC (2007) assessment used 28,586 biological data series, only 39 from outside Europe and North America

(2008) Combined research on coral reefs, mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadows only about 33% of publications on tropical forests

(2004-1984) In top 60% of ecology journals no significant change in proportion of conservation research devoted to marine or freshwater systems

“…. even basic data to provide understanding of the vulnerability of fisheries and aquaculture to climate change are lacking …. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2008)

Climate Science Knowledge CreationClimate Science Knowledge CreationChallenges and Opportunities in VietnamChallenges and Opportunities in Vietnam

1. Context -- Priority competes with immediate and visible national livelihood needs (uncertainties, extended time horizons, complexity)

2. Organization -- Islands of knowledge (institution-limited, sector-based) and reactive. Universities and NGOs need to be more involved.

3. Human Resources -- Scientists and planners to work more closely, strengthen skills, facilities and enabling technologies.

4. Institutional Support -- Champions at senior levels, coordinated collaboration with international scientific and development agencies.

6. Foreign Technical Cooperation -- To be expanded significantly, especially capacity building (climate scientists, planners, negotiators)

7. Science Communication -- Improved skills in interpretation, results presentation (policy makers, opinion-leaders, business, media, public)

Accessing Climate Science KnowledgeAccessing Climate Science Knowledge Challenges and Opportunities in VietnamChallenges and Opportunities in Vietnam

1. Costs -- foreign journals expensive. Sponsored access -- AGORA, HINARI,OARE important (physical, social sciences under-represented), availability not widely known.

2. “Grey” Literature -- most climate research. Limited quantities and circulation, not publicly advertised. Usually not internationally peer reviewed, or indexed.

3. Theses and Dissertations -- difficult to locate or access, combination of search tools do not identify many, and time-consuming to get full texts

4. “Climate Data Rescue" -- identify and digitize historical baseline data, non-traditional data series, images (photographs and remote sensing)

5. Expand Local Initiatives -- National Center for Scientific & Technological Information (NACESTI), Open Access Journal initiatives (Vietnam Journals Online)

6. Data Exchange and Sharing -- ASEAN can save significant costs by cooperation (Vietnam has ~ 40% of fish and 70% of coral species in common with ASEAN).

7. Innovative Approaches -- e.g. standardized network of citizens and students as data collectors ("Citizen Scientists") -- increases technical awareness at grass-roots

The Media as PartnersThe Media as Partners

Situation in Vietnam ● Neilsen surveys (2006-2007 increase) 4% to 9% persons identify global warming as major concern

● Hanoi residents survey (2007) – 100 % identify media as main climate change information source

Global Challenges ● Accuracy, Adequate Content, Ethics. Reporting opposite extremes of denial or scare tactics, “Balance Bias” ignoring scientific conclusions, and attempted political and commercial influence

● Few journalists with science education, specialized climate training, opportunity to be dedicated

Newspaper Surveys in Vietnam2005 (Vietnam News) -- Less than 5 % of number of articles on global warming

2006-2007 (172 environment articles submitted by Journalists) -- 0 % on Climate Change

2008 Local reporters 51% of articles, decrease of scientific explanations: 76 % (2006) to 3 % (2008)

Building Partnerships1. Institutional and professional relationships --- scientists with journalists, media managers

2. Scientists to increase internet presence to counteract inaccurate information

3. Facilitate access for journalists to accurate information

Information Issues in the Climate Change Campaign

● Combining “Hard” and “Soft” approaches Equipment and technical skills, rigorous science, “new” databases, but also new partnerships and networking, customizing content and style for users and situations

● Monitor & Use -- Communication Tools and Platforms Rapidly evolving online personal and social networking tools, audio-video conferencing, mobile and spatial technology, and text messaging.

● Constant Content Analysis Inaccuracies, mis-interpretation, limited comprehension can make powerful agents of communication agents of confusion

“Climate Change” Information Professionals

1. Continuous Learning and professional skills development -- new concepts and terminologies to be mastered

2. Train and Educate Users in effective use of modern information tools and services

3. Expand and Strengthen Networks to facilitate transfer of (national and international) science and legacy information

4. Customize Information Delivery to target users (“Deluge and Drought”)

5. Cost-effective Services -- information challenges are huge

6. Personal Leadership -- carbon sensitive methods of work and management, and promote climate-proofing of work-spaces

Thank You

20 + Years IPCC15 + Years UNFCCC10 + Years Kyoto Protocol

We do not have much timeWe do not have much time