2X2SCENARIOEXPLORATIONSYSTEM

The 2X2 scenario matrix is one of, if not, the most widely used and easily

accessible foresight methods.

2X2SES

The 2X2 scenario matrix is one of, if not, the most widely used and easily

accessible foresight methods.

2X2SES

Millett (2003) calls it the “gold standard of corporate scenario generation.”

Using two critical uncertainties to create four quadrants, the 2x2 method necessitates additional

inputs to create depth and complexity for each scenario.

The 2X2 scenario matrix is one of, if not, the most widely used and easily

accessible foresight methods.

2X2SES

Millett (2003) calls it the “gold standard of corporate scenario generation.”

Curry & Schultz (2009) and Ramirez & Wilkinson (2013) note the various

manifestations of this tool and its value as a methodological “mash-up.”

The 2X2 scenario matrix is one of, if not, the most widely used and easily

accessible foresight methods.

2X2SES

Using two critical uncertainties to create four quadrants, the 2x2 method necessitates additional

inputs to create depth and complexity for each scenario.

Millett (2003) calls it the “gold standard of corporate scenario generation.”

As with any tool or method, the 2X2 approach has utility for some things

but not everything. It has been critiqued for being too reductive.

2X2SES

I AGREE!

2X2SES

As with any tool or method, the 2X2 approach has utility for some things

but not everything. It has been critiqued for being too reductive.

I AGREE!

As a researcher and practitioner, I was never drawn to using 2x2’s, but this changed while

working on a project for the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.

2X2SES

As with any tool or method, the 2X2 approach has utility for some things

but not everything. It has been critiqued for being too reductive.

JRC SCENARIO EXPLORATION SYSTEM 2X2SES

2X2SES

I co-developed the JRC SES with Aaron Rosa (@rorosoro) from the

Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. We built the JRC SES alongside colleagues at the JRC, who had already developed

scenarios using the 2X2 approach, and we were tasked with creating an experience that would allow

participants to explore and deepen each scenario.

JRC SCENARIO EXPLORATION SYSTEM

2X2SESA complete report on the JRC SES is forthcoming.

Like the JRC SES, the 2X2 SES aims to help participants explore and deepen scenarios, but it was also designed to enliven this popular method, and the 2X2 SES works as a half- or full-day

facilitated exercise.

2X2SES

2X2SES

Here’s how it works…

Like the JRC SES, the 2X2 SES aims to help participants explore and deepen scenarios, but it was also designed to enliven this popular method, and the 2X2 SES works as a half- or full-day

facilitated exercise.

2X2SES

Once both axes are identified, participants populate each quadrant.

2X2SES

Horizon lines (5-10-20 years) help participants produce complex content.

Once both axes are identified, participants populate each quadrant.

2X2SES

After a few drivers and/or forces have been put into each quadrant, participants identify four actors or stakeholders that will have an

impact or be impacted across each quadrant.

Horizon lines (5-10-20 years) help participants produce complex content.

Once both axes are identified, participants populate each quadrant.

2X2SES

After a few drivers and/or forces have been put into each quadrant, participants identify four actors or stakeholders that will have an

impact or be impacted across each quadrant.

Horizon lines (5-10-20 years) help participants produce complex content.

If participants struggle with identifying actors, and they might depending on the axes, then four generic actors can be inserted: business, government, media, public.

Once both axes are identified, participants populate each quadrant.

2X2SES

Once four actors have been identified, participants rank each actor’s resource

capacity and/or power in each quadrant. This requires facilitation, and I try to make sure that each quadrant has a different

actor ranking, which is important to provide a meaningful learning experience

and produce critical insights.

2X2SES1. Business

2. Media 3. Government 4. Public

1. Government 2. Business 3. Public 4. Media

1. Media 2. Public 3. Business 4. Government

1. Public 2. Media 3. Government 4. Business

Once four actors have been identified, participants rank each actor’s resource

capacity and/or power in each quadrant. This requires facilitation, and I try to make sure that each quadrant has a different

actor ranking, which is important to provide a meaningful learning experience

and produce critical insights.

2X2SES

Participants create actor-specific goals given the conditions of each quadrant.

2X2SES

Participants create actor-specific goals given the conditions of each quadrant.

Goals should be future-oriented and highly actor-specific. The aim in creating goals is

not to reinforce linear, target-oriented thinking but rather to highlight the

complex dynamics of change.

Government Goal

Eliminate debt

2X2SES

Participants create actor-specific goals given the conditions of each quadrant.

Goals should be future-oriented and highly actor-specific. The aim in creating goals is

not to reinforce linear, target-oriented thinking but rather to highlight the

complex dynamics of change.

Actor goals should be placed beyond the last horizon line and act as

a public guidepost.

2X2SESThe Center for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies,

where I serve as Deputy Director, uses black elephants, black swans, and black jellyfish—a concept we

developed—as part of our Three Tomorrows method.

2X2SES

Black Elephants are events or things forecasted to have a “high impact,” but they are unaddressed for various reasons, such as global warming.

The Center for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies, where I serve as Deputy Director, uses black elephants,

black swans, and black jellyfish—a concept we developed—as part of our Three Tomorrows method.

2X2SES

Black Elephants are events or things forecasted to have a “high impact,” but they are unaddressed for various reasons, such as global warming.

The Center for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies, where I serve as Deputy Director, uses black elephants,

black swans, and black jellyfish—a concept we developed—as part of our Three Tomorrows method.

Black Swans are “high impact” events or things that appear “out of the blue” and might seem unlikely or improbable, such as meteors.

2X2SES

Black Elephants are events or things forecasted to have a “high impact,” but they are unaddressed for various reasons, such as global warming.

The Center for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies, where I serve as Deputy Director, uses black elephants,

black swans, and black jellyfish—a concept we developed—as part of our Three Tomorrows method.

Black Swans are “high impact” events or things that appear “out of the blue” and might seem unlikely or improbable, such as meteors.

Black Jellyfish are small things that can escalate into “high impact” events through the phenomena of positive feedback, such as jellyfish blooms.

2X2SES

Let’s see how this works with an actual 2X2 scenario.

Here are two axes: Climate Change & Responsive Governance

2X2SES

2X2SES

The top right quadrant would be a scenario in which climate change and responsive governance are both high.

Here are two axes: Climate Change & Responsive Governance

2X2SES

Here are the Actor rankings: 1. Government 2. Business 3. Public 4. Media

The top right quadrant would be a scenario in which climate change and responsive governance are both high.

Here are two axes: Climate Change & Responsive Governance

2X2SES

Here are the Actor rankings: 1. Government 2. Business 3. Public 4. Media

The top right quadrant would be a scenario in which climate change and responsive governance are both high.

Actor rankings should follow the basic scenario logic, which is to say the context derived from the axes, although participant input

is crucial to ensure buy-in.

Here are two axes: Climate Change & Responsive Governance

The higher an actor’s ranking the more resource tokens they are given.

2X2SES

The higher an actor’s ranking the more resource tokens they are given.

2X2SES

Resource tokens allow actors to achieve their goal, and each

action card requires one token to play.

The higher an actor’s ranking the more resource tokens they are given.

2X2SES

Resource tokens are limited and use a high/medium/low division:

High resource allocationMedium resource allocationLow resource allocation

Resource tokens allow actors to achieve their goal, and each

action card requires one token to play.

The higher an actor’s ranking the more resource tokens they are given.

2X2SES

Resource tokens are limited and use a high/medium/low division:

High resource allocationMedium resource allocationLow resource allocation

Each color is given a numeric weighting

Red = 3 Amber = 2 Green = 1

Resource tokens allow actors to achieve their goal, and each

action card requires one token to play.

2X2SES

Here’s a sample action card (not to scale).

fund climate

engineering initiatives

2X2SESAction cards are placed near the center of the

matrix and participants work outward in each quadrant.

2X2SES

The three lines indicate time horizons, and these mark the point at which Disruption Cards can be introduced, which should be after each participant has had at least one

turn.

When an actor plays an action card, they must place a resource token to weight their move. Each action card played should help

each actor achieve their goal, which should remain public.

Action cards are placed near the center of the matrix and participants work outward in each quadrant.

2X2SES

Action cards are placed near the center of the matrix and participants work outward in each quadrant.

The three lines indicate time horizons, and these mark the point at which Disruption Cards can be introduced, which should be after each participant has had at least one

turn.

When an actor plays an action card, they must place a resource token to weight their move. Each action card played should help

each actor achieve their goal, which should remain public.

The actor with the most resource tokens should be the first to play in each quadrant. This reinforces their advantage.

2X2SES

A newly played action card must border at least one existing action card. New action cards must take into account any action card they border; each player’s

explanation must reference all bordering action cards.

2X2SES

A newly played action card must border at least one existing action card. Each player’s

explanation of their new action card placement must reference all bordering action cards.

2X2SES

A newly played action card referencing a bordering action card could mean: reacting to,

intentionally ignoring, and/or including it.

A newly played action card must border at least one existing action card. Each player’s

explanation of their new action card placement must reference all bordering action cards.

2X2SES

After each participant has had at least one turn, participants place Future Impact Tokens (FITs), which can be placed on any card to weight an action’s future impact. Each participant places three FITs, and they can only place

one FIT on their own action card.

2X2SES

FITs act as multipliers for resource tokens, and this dynamic creates an actor-specific scoring system.

After each participant has had at least one turn, everyone places Future Impact Tokens (FITs), which can be placed on

any card to amplify an action’s power.

After each participant has had at least one turn, participants place Future Impact Tokens (FITs), which can be placed on any card to weight an action’s future impact. Each participant places three FITs, and they can only place

one FIT on their own action card.

2X2SES

FITs act as multipliers for resource tokens, and this dynamic creates an actor-specific scoring system.

So, purple has the highest score. 3 FITs X Red (3) resource tokens makes for a score of 9.

After each participant has had at least one turn, participants place Future Impact Tokens (FITs), which can be placed on any card to weight an action’s future impact. Each participant places three FITs, and they can only place

one FIT on their own action card.

2X2SES

Action cards with tokens.

Disruption (black elephant)

Here’s how the first round should look on the board.

Actor goals

2X2SES

Here’s a completed quadrant. Ending with a disruption is optional,

but I prefer this as it leaves the scenario more open-ended.

2X2SES

Once the final round is over, participant scores are calculated. The player with the highest score

at the end is the winner.

Here’s a completed quadrant. Ending with a disruption is optional,

but I prefer this as it leaves the scenario more open-ended.

2X2SES

Facilitating a conversation about actor-specific goals is crucial.

Critically discussing the limitations of “winning” is central to the

experience.

2X2SESAfter the first scenario is played, the

process repeats for each quadrant. Participants should keep the same role (or actor) to experience how

their capacity or power changes in each scenario. This is one of the key

learning outcomes of this tool.

2X2SESAfter the first scenario is played, the

process repeats for each quadrant. Participants should keep the same role (or actor) to experience how

their capacity or power changes in each scenario. This is one of the key

learning outcomes of this tool.

2X2SESAfter the first scenario is played, the

process repeats for each quadrant. Participants should keep the same role (or actor) to experience how

their capacity or power changes in each scenario. This is one of the key

learning outcomes of this tool.

Play at least two or all four scenarios depending on the

length of your workshop.

2X2SESThe 2X2 SES is open source and

available under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0

International license.

2X2SES

Got questions? Suggestions?

The 2X2 SES is open source and available under a Creative

Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license.

2X2SESThe 2X2 SES is open source and

available under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0

International license.

John A. Sweeney Deputy Director, CPPFS sweeney@eastwest.edu

cppfs.eastwest.edu

Got questions? Suggestions?

2X2SES

REFERENCES

A. Curry and W. Schultz. “Roads Less Traveled: Different Methods, Different Futures.” The Journal of Futures Studies. (2009).

S. Millett. “The Future of Scenarios: Challenges and Opportunities.” Strategy and Leadership. (2003).

R. Ramirez & A. Wilkinson. “Rethinking the 2X2 Scenario Method: Grid or Frames?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change. (2013).

Special thanks to Zhan Li and Sandjar Kozubaev, who provided substantive insights and feedback on this tool.

As always, Aaron Rosa’s influence and insights abound!