2Q16 results - Banpu...5 Banpu’s core skills to achieve renewables target REGIONAL Positioned in...
Transcript of 2Q16 results - Banpu...5 Banpu’s core skills to achieve renewables target REGIONAL Positioned in...
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DISCLAIMER
The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty ismade as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of anumber of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public CompanyLimited. Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
3
Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: Banpu Power renewables outlook
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4
3
2
1
Looking ahead7
Gas business5
4
2018
Portfolio target: ≥20% in renewables by 2025
1.86GW
June 2016 2025
4.3GW2.4GW
4.3GWe by 2025
Capture new opportunities from >700GW demand growth in Asia-Pacific over
the next four years(1)
Leverage existing assets and platform for both organic and inorganic expansion
≥ 20% renewables by 2025
Diversify fuel type for both conventional and renewable plant
Balance country and regulatory risks
Leverage and strengthen Banpu Power’s skills and advantages
≥20%4%
EXPAND DIVERSIFY STRENGTHEN
7%
(Operating)
Source: (1) Frost & Sullivan, EIA, CEA, AER, WEO, Cleantechnica
(Operating and committed projects) (Target)
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Banpu’s core skills to achieve renewables target
REGIONALPositioned in the most attractive growth markets in Asia-Pacific: equity capacity of 4.3GWe by 2025
SYNERGIESSynergies with coal business to provide local expertise and other synergies
EXPERTISEProject development expertise from coal-fired projects to leverage in developing renewables
FINANCINGProject financing capabilities, experienced team, access to capital and strong financial position
PARTNERSHIPPartnership access and ability to work with partners to enhance overall competitiveness
PIONEERPioneer in private power for over two decades in Asia, with solid track-record of value creation
PERMITS&
PLANNING
FEASIBILITY
STUDY
DESIGN &
PROCUREMENTFINANCING CONSTRUCTION COMMISSIONING O&M
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Sources: Power development plans of each country, WEO’s special report on SE Asia(1) includes hydropower capacity; (2) other Greater Mekong Subregion comprises Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam;(3) other South East Asia comprises Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, East Timor, and Brunei
*DISCLAIMER No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the views, information as indications expressed here. This slide should not be relied upon as a
recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company Limited. Nothing in this slide should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
79%
11%
THAILAND**
JAPAN
Source: Frost & Sullivan, AER, EIANote: Bubble size not drawn to scale* Exclude hydro; ** As of 2014
PHILIPPINES
70%
22%
8%CHINA
LAOS
Renewables*
146GW
Hydro
307GW
33GW
Wind
2GW
0.1GW
6 GW
Hydro
6GW
Solar
Geothermal
Hydro
50GW
Hydro
3GW
Wind
Wind
INDIA
AUSTRALIA
Hydro
8GWSolar 68%
28%
0.2GW
16GW
VIETNAM**
INDONESIA
Asia-Pacific renewables installed capacity 2015
Biomass
Solar
Unit: GW
13%
74%
13%
Hydro
45GW
Wind
3GW 55%
46%47%
39GW
Wind
Hydro
5GW
5GW
Hydro
3GW
Hydro
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Sources: Power development plans of each country, WEO’s special report on SE Asia(1) includes hydropower capacity; (2) other Greater Mekong Subregion comprises Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam;(3) other South East Asia comprises Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, East Timor, and BruneiAsia-Pacific renewables growth 2015 – 2020
COUNTRIES SELECTED ARE FOR
EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY*
2020
48%
52%
2015
686
32%
68%
453
18
2020
50%33%
67%
2015
12
50%
2020
35%
2015
4%
7
95%96%
60%
2020
129
2015
83
61%
39%
40%
JAPAN
LAOS
THAILAND
Hydro
Year
Renewables
CHINA
+184
+233
+46
+46
+4
+6
+0.1
+4
• >250GW capacity growth from renewables is expected in the next four years
• Major growth in absolute MW would come from China, Japan and India
• Renewable energy excluding hydro is expected to constitute c.20% of total generating capacity in Asia-Pacific* by 2020
• Potential upside with technology advancement
+49
+4
+2
6
46%
20202015
54%No
breakdown
available
PHILIPPINES
2020
8
19
45%38%
2015
55%
62%
INDONESIA
+7
+4
+11
*DISCLAIMER No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the views, information as indications expressed here. This slide should not be relied upon as a
recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company Limited. Nothing in this slide should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
AUSTRALIA
Note: Map not drawn to scaleSource: Frost & Sullivan, EIA, CEA, AER, WEO, Australian Gov’t, RET, Cleantechnica
2020
91%
2%98%
16
2015
9%
23
VIETNAM
+2
+7
+5
INDIA
2020
53%
47%
2014*
84
124
54%
46%+27
+40
+13
Unit: GW
19
59%
2020
58%
42%
2015
1341%
+6
+6
+0.5
* Note: But in Laos and Vietnam it is likely to be much less than 20%
8
Japan renewables market
Note: As of June 15, 2016. All plants capacity is based on an as-completed basis includes capacity expansion currently under development.
Source: JWPA, IEA, Agency of Natural Resources and Energy, Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies, METI, EIA Geothermal Report
Operational solar
Developing solar64
28
20202015
RENEWABLES TARGET BY TYPE
Unit: GW
4
20202015
0.5 11
2013 2020
BANPU’S POWER ASSETS IN JAPAN
4
11
2015 2020
Mukawa
17 MW
Yabuki
7 MW
Olympia
10 MWHino
3.5 MW
Awaji
8 MW
Nari Aizu
20 MW
Onami
16 MW
Yamagata
20 MW
* Banpu’s effective ownership is between 40-75%
• Renewables to constitute 22-24% of total power generation capacity by 2030
• Solar, wind and biomass are primary generating resources
• FIT is generally reviewed annually and reduced overtime to control capacity
• FIT could be replaced by auction process for large solar projects in 2017
• Tax holiday was removed for commercial solar installation in Mar’16 while other renewable energy’s tax incentives remain
Solar Wind
Biomass Geothermal
9
China renewables market
Source: Climatenexus, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Sciencedirect, The Climate Group, Cleantechnica
100
2020
200
2015 2030
400
33
100
2030
310
20202015
5930
13
203020202015
• Renewables to constitute 15% of total power generation capacity by 2020 and 20% by 2030
• Government’s target for 2-10% by 2020 of each province’s consumption to come from non-hydro renewables, primarily wind, solar, and biomass
• FIT for solar PV and wind was cut in 2016 in order to regulate development
• Incentives include capex subsidies, tax reduction/exemption, *license exemption
* For under 6MW projects
RENEWABLES TARGET BY TYPE
Unit: GW
BANPU’S POWER
ASSETS IN CHINA
Huineng (100%)
20 MWHaoyuan (100%)
20 MW
Jinshan (100%)
30 MW
Luannan (100%)
123 MWe
Zhengding (100%)
139 MWe
SLG (30%)
1,320 MW
Zouping (70%)
180 MWe
Biomass
Huien (100%)
20 MW
Wind
Solars
Operational coal-fired
Developing coal-fired
Operational solar
Developing solar
As of June 2016
10
Thailand renewables market
Source: Sunwindenergy, AEDP, Thai German Cooperation, EPPO
2
2021*
3
2015
6
2036*
RENEWABLES TARGET BY TYPE
Unit: GW
65
2
2015 2021* 2036*
3
2
2036*2021*2015
0.2
• Renewables to constitute 25% of total power generation capacity by 2021 and 30% by 2036
• Solar, biomass and wind are priority
• Replaced adder program with FIT for solar (Oct 2014). Available FIT for other renewables
• Incentives include tax reduction, import duties reduction/exemption, permission to own land, etc.
0.50.20.1
2036*2021*2015
* Alternative Energy Development Plan
BLCP (50%)
1,434 MW
BANPU’S POWER ASSETS IN THAILAND
Wind
Biomass
Waste
Operational coal-firedSolar
Thai Solar
Up to 4.1 MW
(Under construction)
11
Capacity presented on a 100% basis
DISCLAIMER The views, information and indications expressed here including forward looking targets and indications are illustrative only, are subject to change, may be based on incorrect assumptions, and
have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the views, information as indications expressed here. This slide should not be relied
upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company Limited. Nothing in this slide should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
Diversified portfolio in high growth countriesBanpu’s ownership
Under development
SLG
1,320 MW
Hongsa
1,878 MW
Operation
Japan
solar
102 MW
Th
ailan
dO
ther
Asi
a-P
ac
Gre
ate
r
Meko
ng
Solar
50% Equity
40%
BLCP
1,434 MW
China
solar
90 MW
China CHP
273 MW
948 tph
LN and ZP
expansion (25MW
and 150tph each)
China
ChinaIndonesia
Biomass
Wind
Coal-fired
CambodiaLaos
Japan
Myanmar
Laos
Vietnam
Considerations : Strategic fit Regulations Risks Financing Economics
70-100%30%40-75%
100%
Thai Solar
Up to 4.1 MW
100%
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Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: Banpu Power renewables outlook
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4
3
2
1
Looking ahead7
Gas business5
13
2016e OUTPUT (ROM EQUITY BASIS)
Wollongong
PKCT
Airly
NeubeckAngus Place
Clarence
Springvale
Mandalong Myuna
Newstan
Sydney
PWCS
Newcastle
Inglenook
Project
Underground mine
Port
Power station
RoadRail
C&M 4
WESTERN OPERATIONS: 2016e: 5.5 Mt
NORTHERN OPERATIONS: 2016e: 7.5 Mt
NCIG
2016e output: 13.0 Mt
KEY UPDATES
Production
2Q16 Equity ROM: 2.8 Mt (down 8% YoY). (Note: 2Q15 included production from Charbon – since exhausted).
Two planned longwall changeovers during the period, with Mandalong achieving a record 14.5-day changeover.
Following the 2014/15 decision to focus on higher margin operations, Centennial continues to deliver cost improvements, production and
productivity records.
ASP
2Q16: ~A$59/t vs 1Q16: ~A$63/t –with ASP impacted as a result of thetiming of domestic deliveries into lower priced legacy contracts.
2Q16 Sales volume down 2% YoY,11% QoQ – as a consequence of lower longwall production.
Domestic: export split 61%:39% (2015: 62%:38%) – in part responding to lower production andexport price recovery.
Note 1: Mannering placed on “Care & Maintenance” November 2012 – benefiting from new production sharing arrangement with neighbouring mine.
Note 2: NCIG = Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group; PWCS = Port Waratah Coal Services; PKCT = Port Kembla Coal Terminal.
Note 3: Newstan (1 August 2014) and Angus Place (February 2015 ) placed on care & maintenance.
Australia coal: operational and financial summary
2Q16 YoY QoQ
Sales revenue A$179M ▼ 9% ▼ 17%
EBITDA A$34M ▲ 6% ▼ 15%
PBT A$(7)M ▲36% ▼65%
NPAT A$(5)M ▲33% ▼72%
Gearing(Net debt to net debt + book value of equity)
39%
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
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Australia coal: Northern operations quarterly output
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)1
CV: 6,700 kcal/kg2
1.1
1.8
0.8
1.8
1.2
1.8
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
Mandalong
Quarterly production down 30% QoQ, but up 10% YoY, with 2Q16 production impacted by a planned longwall changeover.
2Q16 – Production recommenced in early June, with the changeover completed in a record 14.5 days “coal-to-coal” surpassing the previous record of 19 days.
Myuna
Quarterly production down 7% QoQ, and 27% Y0Y.
A shift roster change is being implemented in 3Q16, to provide additional operating hours in the Panel (increasing operating time from 8 to 10 hrs to compensate for increasing travel times).
A second Super Panel to be introduced over the next twelve months replacing the existing Place-Change Mining Panel. This will provide greater flexibility to secure variable roof conditions more quickly and efficiently; with the benefit of improved coal quality, than can be delivered from a place-change panel.
COMMENTS
Decision made to return mine to care and maintenance – effective 1 August 2014
8Mt Northern Coal Services state approval received, underpinning the Newstan extension project for when coal industry economics improve.
Note: 1 ROM output on an equity basis2 CV figures are air-dried basis3 Longwall
LW3 MOVE SCHEDULE
Mth 1
Mth 2
Mth 3
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e 4Q16e
3 wks
3 wks
MYUNA
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)1
CV: 6,700 kcal/kg2
NEWSTAN EXTENSIONMANDALONG
2 wks
3 wks
15
Springvale:
2Q16 production down 54% QoQ and 40% YoY – with a planned longwall changeover, which commenced in May 2016 with production now recommenced.
Improved productivity has enabled the mine to achieve similar YTD production to 2015 and a forecast full year increase in production.
Legal challenge to Springvale approval process – judgment awaited.
Clarence:
2Q16 production up 34% QoQ and 25% YoY.
New weekly and monthly production records achieved in 2Q16.
The FCT 4 continues to perform well and is on target to achieve 1 million tonnes in its first full 12 months following its overhaul in late-2015. The FCT has now moved into an extraction phase.
Airly: Production up 5% QoQ and 25% YoY – achieving a new monthly production record since re-opening in June 2014.
OTHER OPERATIONS
COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1
CV: 6,700 kcal/kg 2
0.60.0
0.6 0.70.3
0.5
COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1
CV: 6,700 kcal/kg 2
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
1 ROM output on an equity basis: Angus Place and Springvale 50%, Clarence 85% and Charbon 95% 2 CV figures are air-dried basis3 Longwall4 Flexible Conveyor TrainNote: Following material overflow in reject emplacement area at Clarence in July, authorities were notified and actions were taken in compliance with NSW Environmental Protection Authority Clean-up Notice. The clean-up operation has now been completed.
COMMENTS
Mth 1
Mth 2
Mth 3
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e 4Q16e
LW 3 MOVE SCHEDULE
12 wks
SPRINGVALE CLARENCE
0.6 0.7 0.80.5 0.7 0.7
COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1
CV: 6,700 kcal/kg 2
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
2 wks
Australia coal: Western operations quarterly output
5 wks
3 wks
16
Continued focus on cost control and productivity, driven by step-change in productivity programme and increasing LW(1) automation.
On a like-for-like basis, productivity continues to improve, with several production records achieved across the Centennial group.
2Q16 over 1Q16 cost improvement reflects a continued focus on cost efficiency and timing associated with the longwall changeover accounting (with both Mandalong and Springvale on changeoverduring 2Q16).
Targeting a YoY reduction in unit costs.
Distribution cost reduction –improving rail logistics e.g. recently successfully trialed a 100 wagon distributed power coal train from the western coalfields to NCIG.
AVERAGE PRODUCTION COSTS COMMENTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY14 2Q
General expenses
Open-cut contractor cost
Repairs & maintenance
Stores & supplies
Labour
Depreciation
* These figures do not include selling, distribution and royalty costs; based on ‘sold’ production(1) Longwall
$49
A$/t
$50$49
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2015
FY15 1Q FY16E
$46 $45
$54
$48
2016
$52
Australia coal: operating costs
FY13
$52
$44
Cash overhead
Coal handling & preparation
17
Domestic contracts provide regular monthly cash flows
“New” re-priced domestic contracts improve domestic revenues as new prices reflect long-term export parity.
Legacy contracts conclude at end of June 2022.
Average base price expected to escalate based on key indices.
Consistent with Centennial’s philosophy of maintaining a strong domestic base, domestic sales represent up to 70% of total Centennial group sales.
These re-priced domestic sales underpin Centennial’s business.
Australia coal: domestic contracts
AUSTRALIA COAL: DOMESTIC CONTRACTS
Note: Presented on 100% basis for illustrative purposes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P
Legacy NewUnit : Mt
18
Indonesia coal: operational and financial summary
PRODUCTION OUTPUT 2016
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
East Kalimantan
Bunyut Port
Balikpapan
Palangkaraya
Banjarmasin
Central Kalimantan
South Kalimantan
Kitadin -Embalut1.1 Mt
Indominco16.0 Mt
Trubaindo6.0 Mt
Bharinto2.5 Mt
Jorong1.0 Mt
Samarinda
Jorong Port
Bontang Coal Terminal
Captive coal-fired power project
KEY UPDATES
2016 target: 26.6 Mt ● Indominco : 2Q16 production is according to target.
● Trubaindo: 2Q16 production higher than plan due to good mining performance at June 2016.
● Bharinto: 2Q16 production is according to target.● Kitadin Embalut : 2Q16 production is according
to target● Jorong: 2Q16 production output was slightly lower
than target due to rainy days affecting mine production.
2Q16 YoY QoQ
Sales revenue US$278M ▼ 30% ▼ 16%
EBITDA US$32M ▼43% ▼ 37%
NPAT US$13M ▼ 34% ▼ 42%
Gearing(Net debt to net debt + book value of equity)
n.a.
CAPEX US$5M
19
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
CV: 5300 kcal/kg**
STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
5.4
10.5
4.6
13.8
Indonesia coal: quarterly output
Note: *Output figures are 100% basis**CV figures are air-dried basis
JO
RO
NG
EMBALUT AND JORONGINDOMINCO - BONTANG TRUBAINDO - BHARINTO
E B
LO
CK
TD
MY
W B
LO
CK
IND
OM
INC
OT
DM
Y
TR
UB
AIN
DO
BH
AR
INT
OT
RU
BA
IND
OB
HA
RIN
TO
EM
BA
LU
TJ
OR
ON
GE
MB
AL
UT
EA
ST
WE
ST
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*CV: 5950 - 6250 kcal/kg**
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*CV: 6550 - 6700 kcal/kg**
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*
CV: 5800 kcal/kg**
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
3.2 2.9 2.8 3.13.5 3.6
0.30.3 0.4
0.80.5 0.40.7
0.6 0.6
4.23.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0
STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)
20.7
7.3
6.6
17.1
9.5
3.8
14.4
11.4
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
1.9 2.0 1.71.2 1.4 1.6
0.7 0.70.9
0.50.6
0.7
STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16e
2.72.6
8.2
5.3
2.6
7.8
9.0
7.8
3.6
4.6
12.6
1.7
13.8
7.88.3
6.4
3.9
13.2
2.0
17.7
7.1
8.4
6.8
4.3
7.9
2.3
13.6
7.88.2
7.1
5.6
10.4
20
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY13FY14 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY15 1Q 2Q FY16
Indonesia coal: total costs
* Repair and maintenance, salaries and allowances, etc.
COMMENTS
Continue to implement cost reduction programs:
- Optimize strip ratios, reduce overburden distance, overhaul parts, IPCC optimization
- Lower explosive cost, ship-loading cycle time, barging negotiation
The fall in oil price has also helped ITM to reduce cost further
INDICATIVE AVERAGE TOTAL COSTS
Mining cost
Other production costs*
Depreciation & amortisation
SG&A expenses
Royalty
$52
$59
$52
$42
U$/t
$48$46
2015
FY16
$49
$43
2016
$62
$43
21
CHINA COAL 2016 PRODUCTION
1.9 2.12.7 2.5 2.6
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16E
BEIJING
Hebi(40%),Henan1.2 Mt
Gaohe(45%),Shanxi
9 Mt
Note: * Output figures are ROM output (100% basis)** CV figures are air-dried basis*** Exchange rate of 2Q16is RMB 6.54/USD
Gaohe
2Q16 production increased from 1Q16 due to good miningconditions and higher sales;
Market showed short-term recovery signal mainly due tothe government policy of cutting down coal productionand supplying;
Selling price increased due to better demand supplybalance due to the above mentioned production controlpolicy.
Hebi
Underground working area improvements: enhance dustcontrol in underground working areas; closely monitoringthe gas and CO2 conditions in development areas adjacentto goaf(1) and increase safety management on gas control.
OPERATIONAL UPDATES
Summary 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Sales (Mt) 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.4
ASP (US$/t) 49 41 37 41
Revenue (US$ M) *** 87 91 69 96
COGS (US$/t) 40 42 36 38
EBITDA (US$ M) 9 12 21 26
OperationProject
OperationProject
POWER
COAL
Gaohe
CV: 6500-8000 Kcal/kg**
3Q15 – 2Q16 COAL OUTPUT (Mt ROM)
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16E
China coal: operational summary
Hebi
CV: 5300-6800 Kcal/kg**
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Note: (1)Part of a mine from which the mineral has been partially or wholly removed
22
UNST KHUDAG AND ALTAI NUURS PROJECTSTSANT UUL PROJECT
* Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia
Unst Khudag Project
Received MRAM* approval of the coal mining Feasibility Study
Continuing water resource modeling and development
Currently conducting preliminary feasibility program for coal conversion and power facility scenarios including technical and market related studies
Altai Nuurs Project
Submitted mining licenses application in June.
Product testing results have been favorable which indicates suitability for certain market segments in China.
The technical pre-feasibility study and market study for commercial-scale development will be conducted in 3Q16
OVEN PLANT INSTALLATION
Mongolia coal: project developments
23
Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: Banpu Power renewables outlook
6
4
3
2
1
Looking ahead7
Gas business5
24
Global thermal coal market trends: 2016 vs 2015
China*Domestic supply-side reform, rising domestic coal prices
IndiaLow power plant utilization dueto financial loss; increased domestic coal production
Other
N.Asia
-
EuropeLow UK imports; gas-switching; Coal plant retirements and increased renewable energy
OthersVietnam, S. Korea, Philippines and Malaysia expected to add c.15 Mt of demand
Global
IndonesiaHeavy rain; partly successful in clamping down illegal mining
AustraliaProducers discipline tighten supply; cost reduction continues
ColombiaRetreat supply to Asia as freight rates recovered
RussiaLow freight rates and weak Ruble keep Russian coal competitive
S. AfricaRail maintenance help to tighten supply; rising domestic demand
USAAvailable gas; deep production cuts; export not competitive
Others
Global
SUPPLY TRENDS DEMAND TRENDS
China’s steep decline appears to have bottomed out. Growth is expected
from SE Asian economies. The coming winter is likely to boost thermal
coal demand in N. Asia and may cause a short supply of HCV product.
Note: *includes anthracite and lignite
Major exporting countries have impacts from heavy rainfall. Supply
side looks to be under more control.
CHANGE
2015-16 (MT.) COMMENTS
[-3 to -13 Mt]
CHANGE
2015-16 (MT.) COMMENTS
+7
+6
+6
-19
-14
+25
-6
+2
-13
+0
+1
+2
+5
-13
25
COMMENTS
Note: *includes anthracite and lignite imports/exports
CHINA ANNUALIZED ACTUAL IMPORT 1Q13-2Q16*
CHINA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS/EXPORTS*
137178
235 252229
156181
18 11 8 6 5 4 10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Import
Export
Sources: Banpu MS&L Estimates
Unit: Mt
Unit: Mt
CHINA
The 276-working days policy reduces coal production significantly.
Domestic coal prices continued picking up.
Imports are likely to remain relatively high in 2H16 and will continue to absorb some of the excess seaborne exports.
Heavy rainfall in southern part increases hydro power output.
Government aims to reduce capacity by 10% or c.500 Mt within the next three years.
Met coal imports likely 10 to 15 Mtpa up, and restructuring supports international demand
Source: www.sxcoal.com/cn 31 July 2016
CHINA DOMESTIC COAL PRICES
Unit: RMB/t
251 242 244 270 284232 199 201
153 160 167 145 148 176
7 7 6 5 7 4 4 5 2 5 5 4 10 6
1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16
Import
Export
China thermal coal market review
200400600800
1,000
Ma
y-1
2J
ul-
12S
ep-1
2N
ov
-12
Ja
n-1
3M
ar-
13M
ay
-13
Ju
l-13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3J
an
-14
Ma
r-14
Ma
y-1
4J
ul-
14S
ep-1
4N
ov
-14
Ja
n-1
5M
ar-
15M
ay
-15
Ju
l-15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5J
an
-16
Ma
r-16
Ma
y-1
6J
ul-
16
> 5,800 kcal/kg> 5,500 kcal/kg> 5,000 kcal/kg
476450
405
26
COMMENTS
INDIA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS*
INDIA ANNUALIZED ACTUAL IMPORT 1Q13-2Q16
Sources:: HDR, Banpu MS&L Estimates
131
159
135120 126
163 168
197
171 180
142161
149171
1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16
Unit: Mt
Unit: Mt
Strong economy and low hydro increased coal-fired generation in Q2. However, recent monsoon arrival is likely to boost up hydro power in Q3.
Strong domestic production with high stocks reduced imports.
The coal-fired power plant utilization levels remain low. Power distribution companies still struggling to increase power off-take due to their financial loss.
Government initiatives to promote “India-first” coal consumption in order to “eliminate”
imports look questionable as coal imports still have an advantage for coastal coal-fired power plants.
INDIA
Note: *includes lignite grade imports
6887
107
136
163 164150
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
India thermal coal market review
27
(1) Excluding Mongolia coal
(2) Sales from Indonesia are included on 100% basis, sales from Australia and China are included on equity basis
COAL SALES(1) SOURCE – DESTINATION ANALYSIS 2016 GLOBAL COAL SALES(2) 2016 BY REGION
THAILAND
HK
CHINA
TAIWAN
ITALY
4.0
1.3
6.1
0.1
0.8
INDIA
4.0 Mt
2.4 Mt
10.2 Mt
0.6 Mt 2.3 Mt
0.1 Mt
6.4 Mt
2.2 Mt
JAPAN
1.2
5.2
MALAYSIA
0.3 Mt
INDONESIA
3.7 Mt PHILIPPINES
2.1 Mt
AUSTRALIA
9.4 Mt
OTHERS0.90.8
1.7 Mt
Indonesia coal
Australia coal
China coal
Japan, 14%
Korea, 5%
Taiwan, 5%
China , 22%
Australia21%
SE Asia19%
India9%
Others, 5%
* Illustrative target
** Include coal sales from domestic production in China
S KOREA
1.40.9
Banpu group coal sales 2016e
45.4 Mt(2)
**
28
Indicative 2016 Banpu coal sales pricing status
36%
33%
24%
5%3%
Indexed
Fixed Export
Domestic: long-term export parity
13.7 Mt*
AUSTRALIA COAL
Domestic: legacy
Unpriced
Note: *Target Sales
Fixed77%
9%
3%
11%
Fixed
Indexed
27.7 Mt*
INDONESIA COAL
Unpriced
Unsold
29
* Included post shipment price adjustments as well as traded coal** The Newcastle Export Index (previously known as the Barlow Jonker Index – BJI)
2Q16 ASP eased due to general market
weakness, JFY15/16 term effected as
well as product mixes
– ITM ASP was 6% down Q-o-Q
– CEY ASP was 5% down Q-o-Q
NEX benchmark prices remained weak
during Q2 with signs of recovery already
showing in Q3
ITM ASP 2Q16 $46.4* (-6% QoQ)
CEY ASP 2Q16 A$61.8* (-5% QoQ)
NEX** Aug 11, 2016 $67.3
Unit: $/t
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Monthly NEX
Quarterly ITM ASP
Quarterly Centennial ASP
BANPU ASP VS BENCHMARK PRICES COMMENTS
Banpu ASPs vs thermal coal benchmark prices
30
Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: Banpu Power renewables outlook
6
4
3
2
1
Looking ahead7
Gas business5
31
Banpu Power: 2Q16 overview
THAILAND
BLCP: continued
strong EBITDA of
$49M
JAPAN – SOLAR
One additional
Japan project Hino
3.5MW began
operations in May,
making total solar
operating capacity
13.5MW(1)
LAOS
Hongsa: EBITDA
increased 83%
QoQ from $43M
to $79 mainly from
increased availability
energy payment
CHINA
BIC: EBITDA
maintained at
comparable
YoY level
SLG: completed
de-sulphur
foundation area
and 4th batch
of auxiliary
equipment bidding
CHINA – SOLAR
Obtained rights to
acquire four
projects with
90MW in which 70
MW from 3
projects already in
operation
Remaining 20 MW
is expected to
COD in
September 2016
32
USD million
Energy Payment (EP)
Dispatch (%)
Q-Q : 5.3%Y-Y : 4.7%
Q-Q : -1.2%Y-Y : -5.1%
Total revenue
EBIT
EBITDA
Q-Q : -0.9%Y-Y : 9.4%
Q-Q: -2.2%Y-Y: -5.6%
Based on Banpu’s 50% interest
Equity income
Thailand power: BLCP in 2Q16
USD million
Availability Payment (AP)
Q-Q : 9.1%Y-Y : -1.3%
FX Loss
Q-Q : 3.7%Y-Y : -0.9%
14
-2-3
23
2Q16
7
22
1Q162Q15
FX Loss
70.5 63.8 69.6
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
70.1 77.4 76.7
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
146.5145.6
153.4
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
94.6 97.9 99.5
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
FX Gain
51.0 48.8 50.6
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
51.5 49.5 48.9
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2021 20
33
84.4 76.1
137.3
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
9.4
1.0
13.9
0.4
0.3
(0.9)
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
USD million
Energy Payment (EP)
Dispatch (%)
Q-Q : 80.4%
Q-Q : 82.5%
Total revenue
EBIT
EBITDA
Q-Q :71.5 %
Q-Q: 872%
Based on Banpu’s 40% interest
Equity income
Thailand power: HPC in 2Q16
USD million
Availability Payment (AP)
Q-Q : 86.7%
1.3
FX Loss
9.8
Q-Q : 85.2%
FX gain
53.5 43.1
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
53.3 41.4
76.6
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
13.0
FX gain
94.8 100.0 100.0
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
51.4 49.9
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
35.5
25.4
43.6
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
93.2
78.7
34
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
57.2
102.3
51.8 22.2
59.9
21.3
36.7 36.735.7
1,998
1,1491,205
1,7661,702
1,510
2,122
1,4031,418
0.39 0.39
0.42
0.310.32
0.36
0.37 0.37
0.41
315 316
357
407401
457
302 294
357
58.1
77.9
21.6
97.4
107.5
103.9
53.0
124.9
22.9
China power: BIC in 2Q16 (100% basis)
Note: *Unaudited figures, **Including transportation
LuannanHebei Province
Power 100 MW
Steam 128 tph
(Banpu 100% )
ZhengdingHebei Province
Power 73 MW
Steam 370 tph
Chilled water 35 MW
(Banpu 100%)
ZoupingShandong Province
Power 100 MW
Steam 450 tph
(Banpu 70%)
Sales*
(RMB$M)
EBITDA
(RMB$M)
Utilization
(hours)
Power tariff
(RMB/kwh)
Coal price**
(RMB/t)BIC 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
According to seasonalbusiness nature of peakheating season in Q1, the2Q16 EBITDA was atcomparable YOY level:USD 0.9M lower due tolower power sales.
According to seasonalbusiness nature of peakheating season in Q1, the2Q16 EBITDA was atcomparable YOY level:USD 1.3M higher due tohigher heat sales
As client’s demand wasgenerally stable butslightly drop due to noheating load, EBITDA in2Q16 was USD 1M lowerthan YOY and 1Q16.
35
Shanxi Lu Guang update
24% completion as of July 2016
Chimney construction has reached 21 meters; the foundation construction of de-sulfur area has been completed; the fencing wall construction was on going
4th batch of auxiliary equipment bidding has been finished
One natural draft cooling tower for 2 units
Obtained full financial commitment from lenders
Cooling tower
Unit #2 foundation
Chimney
Construction progress
Construction reached 21 meters
De-sulfur area foundation completed
Cooling tower construction rapid progress
Overall progress approx. 24% on schedule (as of July 2016)
36
Japan solar update
*Banpu effective ownership is between 40-75%
Hino
3.5 MWAC
Awaji
(COD 2017)
8 MWAC
Mukawa
(COD 2018)
17 MWAC
Nari Aizu
(COD 2018)
20 MWAC
Olympia
10 MWAC
Tokyo
Japan solar portfolio
Hino 3.5MW commenced operations in May
Awaji completed project financing and started construction
Nari Aizu and Mukawaare in the process of project financing
YTD performance 1,956MWh, 15.45% capacity factor
TK Distribution 2Q16 $0.8 M
Construction solar
Operation solar
Development solar
Hokkaido
Honshu
ShikokuKyushu
Onami
(COD 2018)
16 MWAC
Yamagata
(COD 2018)
20 MWAC
Yabuki
(COD 2018)
7 MWAC
China solar: investment progress
• BPP obtained rights to acquire 100% in four solar projects for total 90MW
• 70MW from three projects have already been in operation as of August 2016
• The remaining 20 MW is under construction and expected to complete in September 2016
• RMB 1.0 per kwh of FIT & subsidies
• Subject to conditions precedent being fulfilled, the acquisition of projects is expected to complete by end of 2016
SHANDONG
Tianjin LIAONING
Beijing
HEBEI
Henan JIANGSU
ANHUI
HENAN
Zouping (70%)
100 MW, 450 tph
Cangzhou
Zhengzhou
WuheXuzhou
Dalian
Huineng
20MW
Haoyuan
20MW
Jinshan
30MW
Huien
20MW
Construction solar
Operation solar
Operational coal-fired
37
38
Jinshan project Hui’en project
Haoyuan project Huineng project
China solar: photos from the sites
20MW
20MW30MW
20MW
39
Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: Banpu Power renewables outlook
6
4
3
2
1
Looking ahead7
Gas business5
40
Bcf
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
5-year (2011-2015) maximum billion cubic feet
Working Gas in Storage billion cubic feet
5-year (2011-2015) minimum billion cubic feet
3,277 Bcf (+236)[15 Jul 16]
U.S. gas market update
• Higher ASP due to gas price recovery since 2Q16
• Natural gas price jumped as hot summer keeps demand strong despite the high inventory level
• Gas rig count remains relatively stable and inventory level remains seasonally high
Source: EIA
Gas Rig Count Oil Rig Count
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2015 2016
US Gas Rig Count Marcellus Gas Rig CountUtica Gas Rig Count US Oil Rig Count
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul
AVERAGE HENRY HUB PRICE 2016
Unit: $/Mmbtu
$2.79
25 Jul 16
2Q average
$2.19
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
NATURAL GAS IN UNDERGROUND STORAGE
GAS RIG COUNT
2014 2015 2016
July
YTD average
$2.47
Q1 Q2
41
Chaffee Corners 2Q16 performance
Total revenue ($M)
EBITDA ($M)
2Q16
1.95
Note 1Q16 : 28 – 31 Mar.16(1) British Thermal Unit(2) Pipeline recovery income
Midstream
3.65
3.31
2Q16
0.34
Upstream
Unit production (Trn btu(1))
(3) Lease operating expense and work over expenses(4) Royalty, taxes, marketing and transportation expenses, and administrative expense
2Q16
1.89
EBITDA Breakdown($/Mmbtu)
0.21
0.69
1.03
2.19
0.181.75
Operating expense(3)
Selling and admin(4)
Avg. Henry Hub
Upstream Midstream(2) Ebitda
Revenue($/Mmbtu)
42
Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: Banpu Power renewables outlook
6
4
3
2
1
Looking ahead7
Gas business5
43
EX
TE
RN
AL
E
VE
NT
SC
OR
PO
RA
TE
E
VE
NT
S
DIR
EC
TIN
DIR
EC
TKey external and corporate events
Rights offering and warrant issues
approved by AGM
4Q15 Analyst meeting
4Q15 SET Opportunity Day
Announced 2H15 dividend of
Bt0.50/share
2015 Result Announcement
China GDP was 6.9% in 2015; expected to be 6.7% in 2016
China announced no approval of coal mines in the next three years
2Q16
Indonesia to relax foreign ownership rules in power
Myanmar’s government targets coal as main source of power
HBA thermal coal price increased 1.4%
Vietnam demands more Australian coal
BOT likely to keep rates on hold for the rest of 2016
ADB cuts Thai growth forecast
Announced US$554M investment plan for 2016-20
Announced plan to issue 1.29b new shares in Rights offering (to raise up to THB 6.45Bn)
Full commercial operation of Hongsa Power Plant
First investment in unconventional shale gas
1Q16 result
Announcement on China solar projects
2H15 dividend paid Bt0.5/share
Completion of Rightsoffering & capital increase warrants issue
China announced reduction in coal mine working days to 276
1Q16
44
Note: ITM and Centennial revenues are consolidated in Banpu income statement.Australia Coal – Third party coal sales included.
*NEX = Newcastle Export Index (formerly Barlow Jonker Index or BJI) It is relevant but not linked to China Coal’s ASP
CHINA COAL
Note: Hebi and Gaohe revenues are not consolidated in Banpu income statement.
SALES (Mt)
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (US$/t) excl. VAT
REVENUE (US$M)
59 48 49 38 48
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
AS
P 55 49 45 39 41
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
NE
X*
60 59 53 51 52
Equity basis
Equity basis
Domestic
Export
Banpu group Q-Q revenue analysis: coal operations
AUSTRALIA COAL (CENTENNIAL)
1.7 2.3 1.8 2.4 1.8
3.1 3.42.8
3.4 3.0
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
SALES (Mt)
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (A$/t)
REVENUE (A$M)
198 208 177 216 179
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
AS
P
64 61 63 63 59
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
NE
X*
60 59 53 51 52
Equity basis
Equity basis
Domestic
Export
INDONESIA COAL (ITM)
5.9 5.9 6.1 5.8 5.4
6.9 6.8 7.1 6.9 6.2
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
SALES (Mt) 100% basisDomestic
Export
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (US$/t)
REVENUE (US$M)
397 382 383 331 278
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
NE
X*
AS
P
60 59 53 51 52
100% basis
57 56 53 48 45
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
45
405 344
297
163
159
140
34
49
33
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Note: Revenue from others is included in Coal Indonesia.
US$ M
602552
469-22% YoY
Coal Australia
-12% QoQ
-14% YoY
Coal Indonesia
-14% QoQ
-27% YoY
Power
-33% QoQ
-4% YoY
Power
Coal Australia
Coal Indonesia
-15% QoQ
Banpu consolidated sales revenues
46
INDONESIA COALAUSTRALIA COAL
Note: AUD exchange rate – US$ 0.745A$ (Average of 2Q16)
Coal sales Gross margin
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
23%24%
163
140
Indonesia coal gross margin: 30%
37%34%
US$ MUS$ M Australia coal gross margin: 28%
159
28%
32%
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
34%32%
283
396331
30%
Banpu consolidated coal gross margin 2Q16: 29%
47
47 5132
3
(10) (5)
29 30
30
26 42
40
2
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Banpu consolidated EBITDA
USD million
104
113
Coal - China
Coal - Indonesia
-32% Y-Y
-36% Q-Q
Coal - Australia
-1% Q-Q +3% Y-Y
Power
-4% Q-Q
+57% Y-Y
99-5% YoY
-13% QoQ
Gas - USA
Gas
Power
Coal Australia
Coal China
Coal Indonesia
48
Banpu: 2Q16 consolidated NPAT
17
8
NON-
RECURRING
ITEMS
NPATOPERATING
PROFIT
POWER
35
RECURRING
PROFIT
FINANCE
CHARGES
(35)
52
2Q16 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
UNIT: $M
1Q16 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
UNIT: $M
COAL
21
OPERATING
PROFIT
54
(33)
FINANCE
CHARGES
RECURRING
PROFIT
21
(5)
NPATNON-
RECURRING
ITEMS
OTHERS
FX LOSS
DERIVATIVES
POWER
33
COAL
17
(5)(7)
(15)
+6% Q-Q
+94% Y-Y
-19% Q-Q
+2% Y-Y
Non-Recurring Items• FX gain $ 3M• Derivative loss ($10M)• Others ($2M)
2Q15 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
UNIT: $M
COAL
12
OPERATING
PROFIT
30
(33)
FINANCE
CHARGES
RECURRING
PROFIT
(3)
(2)
NPATNON-
RECURRING
ITEMS
OTHERS
POWER
18
1
FX GAIN
DERIVATIVES(17)
17
(9)
Step 1: Contact
broker to issue
warrant certificate
from TSD
Step 2: Complete
warrant exercise
form and process
for payment
Step 3: Submit the
relevant documents
to Bualuang Securities
- Exercise price 5 THB / share
- Minimum exercise 100 warrants/time
Procedures
Banpu Warrants (BANPU– W3) conversion guideline
1st warrant
notification dates
1st warrant
exercise date
2nd warrant
notification dates
2nd warrant
exercise date
3rd warrant
notification dates
3rd warrant
exercise date
4th warrant
notification dates
4th warrant
exercise date
Warrant exercise timeline
29 Aug
-2 Sep
5 Sep 25 Nov
–1 Dec
2 Dec
FY 2016 FY 2017
24 Feb
-2 Mar
3 Mar
“SP” date
10 May
Book
closing
15 May 19 May
-2 Jun
5 Jun
MOC register
8 Sep
First trading day
of new shares*
12 Sep
MOC register
and first
trading day of
new shares*
MOC register
and first
trading day of
new shares*
MOC register
and first
trading day of
new shares*
1) Warrant exercise form
2) Payment evidence
3) Warrant issued by TSD
4) Copy of ID card
1
2
Sell
warrants
in the
market
Exercise
warrants
BANPU W3
(period 1 year)
Terms
*MOC Register and first trading day of new shares will follow within 1 week after exercise date
49
50
Financial summary
Power business
Coal marketing
Coal operations
Focus: Banpu Power renewables outlook
6
4
3
2
1
Looking ahead7
Gas business5
51
Towards strategic sustainabilityC
ON
VE
NT
ION
AL
• Australia coal Ebitdastabilized
• Indonesia output on target
• Chaffee Corners performance on target
• Gas price rising
• Developing margin-enhancement plans
• Developing plans for new logistics and marketing businesses (early stages)
• Strong Hongsa Ebitda growth
• SLG construction progress• Banpu Power IPO: capital
for further growth
• China and Japan operating solar capacity growing
• Thai solar: first step taken*• Banpu Power IPO: capital
for further growth
UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAMN
EW
*Up to 4MW of solar rooftop investment subject to contingencies
53
Sources: Power development plans of each country, WEO’s special report on SE Asia(1) includes hydropower capacity; (2) other Greater Mekong Subregion comprises Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam;(3) other South East Asia comprises Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, East Timor, and BruneiAsia-Pacific power growth 2015 – 2020
Installed capacity (GW)
COUNTRIES SELECTED ARE FOR
ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY*
18%
17%
2015
21%
2020
1,979
10%
1,462
43
14%
13%
2015 2020
19%
15%
54
3% 3%78%72%
20202015
9
4
2020
18%12%
281
28%
278
2015
18%
JAPAN
LAOS
THAILAND
Hydro
RenewablesCoal-fired
2015 2020
Others
Nuclear
CHINA
+184
+517
+46
+3
+4
+11
+0.1
+5
• >250GW capacity growth from renewables is expected in the next four years
• Major growth in absolute MW would come from China, Japan and India
• Renewable energy excl. hydro is expected to constitute c.20% of total generating capacity by 2020 (except for Laos and Vietnam)
• Potential upside with technology advancement
+49
+4
+2
22
2020
19%
2015
17
10%
No
breakdown
available
PHILIPPINES
+5
51
6%
2015
10%
2020
10%
94
11%
INDONESIA
+7+4
+43
*DISCLAIMER No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the views, information as indications expressed here. This slide should not be relied upon as a
recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company Limited. Nothing in this slide should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
AUSTRALIA
Note: Map not drawn to scaleSource: Frost & Sullivan, EIA, CEA, AER, WEO, Australian Gov’t, RET, Cleantechnica
0.5%
34
26%
2015
46%
2020
1%
73
VIETNAM
+2
+39
+5
INDIA
13%
15%
2014*
13%
282
2020
16%
385
+27
+103
+13
Unit: GW
2020
21%
46
15%11%
16%
52
2015
+6
+6
+0.5
54
Laos renewables market
73
126
2025*20202015
RENEWABLES TARGET BY TYPE
Unit: MW
43
23
109
2025*20202015
4836
22
2025*20202015
• Primary focus on hydro-electricity generation, with target to increase renewables by 150MW 2015-20
• Target non-hydro renewables to be 30% by 2025
• Long-term focuses on biomass and wind
• Primary focus on untapped hydropower potential of up to 26GW
BANPU’S POWER ASSETS IN LAOS
HONGSA (40%)
1,878 MW
Note: * According to National Sustainable Energy Strategy Report 2014, (1) Equity basis Source: Laos’ Renewable Energy Development Strategy (REDS) 2011, Ministry of Energy and Mines 2015
36
179
20202015 2025*
Solar
WindBiomass
Waste
Operational coal-fired
55
Indonesia renewables marketRENEWABLES TARGET BY TYPE
Unit: GW
15
6
2
2015 20302020
Source: National Energy Policy, IRENA Renewable Energy Capacity Statistics 2016, Indonesia Energy Projection towards 2050 (2014)
13
4
1
2020 20302015
Biomass
Geothermal
• Renewables to constitute 25% of total energy mix by 2025
• Primary focus on geothermal and biomass
• 2015 installed capacity of 1Gw accounts for only 3% of its 29GW geothermal energy potential (equivalent to about 40% of world’s total geothermal reserves)
• In order to boost renewables development, the government provides Geothermal Fund Facility (GFF) to geothermal mining license holders to support exploration activities
56
Vietnam renewables market
0.8
2030
2
20202015
<0.1
RENEWABLES TARGET BY TYPE
Unit: GW
5
0.2
2020 2030
1
2015
Source: ADB, National Plan for Power Development 2011-20
0.5
203020202015
2
<0.01
• Vietnam National Plan for Power Development 2011-20 targets renewables as 4.5% by 2020 and 6% by 2030
• Solar and wind are priority, with significant growth for solar under long-term strategy
Biomass
Wind
Solar
57
India renewables marketRENEWABLES TARGET BY TYPE
Unit: GW
Note: * Government’s targetSource: CEA, Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Biomass
Solar
Wind
3227
2015
127
2020 2030*
204
20202015 2030*
254
85
2030*2015 2020
• Renewables to constitute 15% of total energy mix by 2020 and 30% by 2030
• Primary focus on wind and solar energy
• Incentives include FIT, 10-year income tax holiday (100%), custom duty and excise duty exemption on equipments, tax rebates on manufacturing of solar and wind components
n.a.
58
Australia renewables marketRENEWABLES TARGET BY TYPE
Unit: GW
Wind Solar
8
4
20202015
2
2020
0.2
2015
• Australia’s Renewable Energy Target set renewables growth for 6GW during 2015-20 to 23.5% of total capacity
Source: AER
59
Indonesia coal gross margin 2Q16 : 30%
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
30%34%
32%
283
Indonesia Coal
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Indominco
30%25%
32%
163174
164
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
41%36%
25%
72
Trubaindo
114
93
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Jorong
42% 48% 33%
13 16 9
52%
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
12
26% 17% 28%
Kitadin
18 13
396
331
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Bharinto
2734
35%29%
52%
2Q15 1Q162Q16
TandungMayang
0.4
16% -6%
42%
42
1
46
35%
US$M
60
NPAT IMPACT 2Q2016
(US$m)
APPROXIMATE FX EXPOSURE (US$m)
NPAT 5% SENSITIVITY 3Q2016
(US$m)
+3
+0.1
-0.4
+3
NET
AUD
ID R
THB & O THER
Banpu: THB bond and others
+4
+70
AUD
ID R
THB & O THER
+16
+0.2
-3
+19
NET
AUD
ID R
THB & O THER
NET LIABILITY NET ASSET
Moderate growth
Moderate growth
RBA cut rates 25 bps in +Aug
Slowly recovery GDP
Assuming 5% depreciation of local currencies against USD
CURRENCY EXPOSURE
ITMG: IDR asset and liabilities
CEY: USD asset
Net
-380
FX impact analysis guidance on P&L
61
GEARING RATIOS
Banpu gearing and foreign exchange structure
DEBT FX STRUCTURE
Note: 1 Net debt to book value of shareholders' equity
2 Net debt to enterprise value (enterprise value = net debt + market capitalization as at 30 June 2016)
USD Fixed44%
USD Float25%
AUD Fixed
2%
AUD Float7%
THB Fixed16%
THB Float6%
Total gross debt: US$3.62 billionAs of 30 June 2016
1.18 1.40 1.44
Net debt / Equity1 (x)
54% 58% 59%
Net market gearing2 (%)
Net debt / EBITDA (x)
4.4 5.9
2014 2015 2Q162014 2015
62
Banpu group EBITDA breakdown
Note: all ownership 100% unless otherwise shown.*BIC = Banpu Investment China
9 11 22 26
-2 -4 -2 -2
1 3 4 0
12 5 1 2
6 3 3 1
25 25 18 3
21 35 23 28
Jorong
29 55 43 79
37 31 50 49
-1 -2 -3 -7
65 71 50 33
50%
40%
Power & New energy
40%
45%
70%
Gaohe
Hebi
BLCP
HONGSA
BIC*
Zouping
6 5 6 5
Zhengding
4 9 10 3
Luannan
3 8 9 3
& holding companies
65%
Indominco
Trubaindo
Kitadin
AACI OVERHEAD
Unit: US$M
100%
34 7 40 34
Consolidated NOT consolidated
-1 -1 -1 -1
13 21 23 11
Unit: AUD Mil
All figures are 100% basis except for Centennial which is equity basis
105 115 113 99
Bharinto
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q163Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q163Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q163Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
63
Banpu group net debt breakdown
Note: all ownership 100% unless otherwise shown.
2502 25622122
2203
85 225 226 187
& holding companies
2,727 2,893 3,241 3,212
AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL CHINA COAL MONGOLIA COAL
THAILAND POWER
LAOS POWER CHINA POWER
Gaohe Hebi
HONGSABLCP BIC*
100% 65% 45% 40% 100%
50% 40% 100%
730 739 709 761-344 -268 -295 -266
-15 -90 -85 -81 -2 -1 -1 -2
323 315 275 2690
-9 -15 -27
Unit: AUD Mil
Unit: US$M
Consolidated
NOT consolidated
Net debt
Net cash
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q163Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q15 4Q15 Q15 1Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Unit: USD million
Sales revenues – Power (BIC)
Cost of sales
Gross profit*
GPM
Sales revenues – Coal
Total sales revenues*
Gross profit - Coal
Gross profit – Power (BIC)
GPM – Power (BIC)
GPM - Coal
-23%
YoY%
-22%
-24%
-26%
-4%
21%
Note: * Including other businesses
-22%
QoQ%
-15%
-14%
-18%
-33%
-45%
49
(374)
179
32%
1Q16
552
497
151
24
49%
30%
34
(420)
182
30%
2Q15
602
561
167
11
33%
30%
Banpu consolidated : operating profit
33
(330)
140
30%
2Q16
469
429
124
13
41%
29%
64
65
Unit: USD million
Gross profit
GPM
SG&A
Royalty
Other income
EBIT
EBITDA
EBIT - Coal
EBIT - Power
Income from associates
EBITDA - Coal
EBITDA - Power
Mining property
Banpu consolidated : operating profit
EBITDA - Gas
182
30%
(82)
(62)
7
56
104
2Q15
34
22
19
78
(8)
26
-
140
30%
(69)
(44)
9
58
99
2Q16
20
38
26
57
(4)
40
2
11
71
179
32%
(67)
(52)
8
71
113
1Q16
(7)
31
40
42
-
-22%
-18%
-13%
QoQ%
-36%-3%
-20%
-4%
n.m.
-41%
76%
-23%
5%
-5%
YoY%
-28%
57%
n.m.
66
Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses
Unit: USD million
EBIT
Interest expenses
Financial expenses
Minorities
Non-recurring items*
Income tax (non - core business)
Net profit before FX
Income tax (core business)
Net profit before extra items
FX translations
Net Profit
EPS (US$/share)
5%
YoY%
n.m.
n.m.
355%
Deferred tax income (expenses)
-18%
QoQ%
-47%
n.m.
-37%
Banpu consolidated : net profit
Gain (Loss) on Derivatives Transactions
58
2Q16
(33)
(2)
(5)
(2)
-
5
(11)
7
3
8
0.002
10
(10)
56
2Q15
(30)
(2)
(8)
2
(3)
(18)
(13)
2
17
(2)
(0.001)
(2)
(17)
71
1Q16
(31)
(2)
(9)
(5)
(6)
(17)
11
15
9
(15)
(7)
(5)
(0.002)
67
Unit: USD million
Cost of sales
Gross profit
GPM
Royalty
SG&A
EBIT
Sales revenue
Sales volume (Mt)
Other income
Interest expenses
Financial expenses
Gain (loss) on exchange rate
Net profit
Gain (loss) on derivative
Other expenses
Centennial : income statement
YoY%
1%
-8%
-21%
47%
-2%
-14%
-52%
n.m.
QoQ%
5%
19%
-15%
-9%
-11%
-12%
-14%
n.m.
Deferred tax income
2Q15
(123.7)
38.9
24%
(11.1)
(26.8)
5.5
3.1
162.6
4.5
(6.5)
(1.0)
2.0
(8.6)
(8.7)
-
-
2Q16
(100.6)
39.3
28%
(8.8)
(24.6)
8.1
3.0
139.9
2.2
(6.6)
(0.8)
0.2
(4.0)
(6.4)
-
1.5
1Q16
(122.1)
37.4
23%
(10.3)
(20.7)
8.8
3.4
159.4
2.5
(6.3)
(0.8)
(1.0)
(2.1)
(3.7)
-
0.9
68
Note: 1. Bar width is indicative of the equity production contributions to Centennial2. Production generally responds to the timing of longwall changeovers (i.e. lower production results during a longwall changeover period) 3. Angus Place was put on care and maintenance from February 2015.
Normal production Bolt-up/commissioning
1.81.4
1.01.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5
2.5
1.6 2.2 1.1
2.11.6
2.21.6
3.0 3.2
2.52.8 3.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16e 3Q16e 4Q16e
4.3
Total equity ROM (Mt)
WE
ST
ER
NN
OR
TH
ER
N
LW relocation
2015 2016e
LW move Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mandalong
(100%)
Springvale
(50%)
3 wks
6 wks
Awaiting Approvals
3wks
ACTUAL
2 wks
3 wks
8wks
3.53.6
Australia coal: quarterly equity ROM output
PLANNED (INDICATIVE ONLY)