2Q09 Review and 3Q09 Preview: Better Times Ahead?
Transcript of 2Q09 Review and 3Q09 Preview: Better Times Ahead?
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2Q09 Review and 3Q09 Preview:Better times ahead?
Diana Diquez, Sr. Market AnalystThomson Reuters LPC
July 16, 2009
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Webinar overview -2Q09 review & 3Q09 preview: Better times ahead?
2Q09 sees some stability
What were the biggest changes?
Secondary market rallies; middle market stabilizes Issuance recovers from 1Q levels
Non-sponsored lending up
Non-sponsored issuance is up
Banks lend selectively look for high quality deals
Ancillary business remains very important
Spreads are up but some deals get done at aggressive levels
Sponsored issuance shows slight signs of life
A few deals get done volume slightly up
Many obstacles remain
Balancing act between banks and reduced investor base
Amendments take center stage
51% amendments rule
Issuers see spread increases in return for more flexibility
Are better times ahead?
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Traditional middle market bids currently in 77-78context
Traditional MM & SMi100 bids
Price(%ofpar)
Source: LSTA/LPC Mark-to-Market Pricing
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
7/2/2007
7/27/2007
8/21/2007
9/15/2007
10/10/2007
11/4/2007
11/29/2007
12/24/2007
1/18/2008
2/12/2008
3/8/2008
4/2/2008
4/27/2008
5/22/2008
6/16/2008
7/11/2008
8/5/2008
8/30/2008
9/24/2008
10/19/2008
11/13/2008
12/8/2008
1/2/2009
1/27/2009
2/21/2009
3/18/2009
4/12/2009
5/7/2009
6/1/2009
6/26/2009
Traditional MM
SMi100
Traditional MM Deal size
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Market Survey -
How much time did you spend analyzing opportunities inthe secondary market in 2Q09?
12%
35% 35%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Majority of time as
primary issuance
has been quiet
Modest amount of
time as select
opportunities
arise
Very little time as
more focused on
amendments,
restructurings and
new deals
No time as our
strategy is to buy
and hold to
maturity
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey
%of
respondents
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2Q09 Middle market issuance up relative to 1Q
Middle Market Loan Issuance
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
New Money
(beg. 2Q03)
Issuance
($Bils.)
2Q09 loan issuance
$17.6 billion
Up 74% from 1Q09
Down 40% from 2Q08
New money
$6.32 billion
Up 67% from 1Q09
Down 67% from 2Q08
Middle Market definition:1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less;2) Deal Size $500 million or less3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines
on LoanConnector
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Comparison to the overall market
Year-over-year
Middle market drops 40%
Overall market drops 37%
OverallSyn.Loa
nIssuance
($Bils.)
MiddleMarketIssuance
($Bils.)
Quarter-over-quarter
Middle market up 74%
Overall market up 37%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Overall U.S.
Middle Market
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
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Middle market issuance breakout
Traditional MM Deal size $100 Mil. to $500 Mil.
For all: Borrower sales
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Somewhat
below goals
33%
Met goals
39%
Below goals by
>15%
28%
Market Survey-Were you able to lend as much as you wanted to in 2Q09?
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey
61% of lenders fell below
goals 39% met goals
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Market Survey -
What were the biggest obstacles to getting middle marketdeals done in 2Q09?
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey
Ancillary business requirementsRelatively limited deal flow; lack of quality
opportunities
Lack of M&A activity
High costs prevented issuers from coming to market
Limited liquidity
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Market Survey -Lending capacity in the middle market
Unchanged
48%
Increased
[< 10%]
26%
Increased
[10-25%]
26%
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey
[more than
75%]
27% [less than 25%]
33%
[25 - 50%]
27%
[50 - 75%]
13%
How much did lending capacity shrinkin 1Q09?
What happened to lending capacity in2Q09, relative to 1Q09?
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Bookrunner volume at very low levels; ranks shift
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
- 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
Bank of America ML
PNC (incl. National city)
Wells (incl. Wachovia)
JPM (incl. Bear Stearns)
U.S. Bancorp
GECC
Mitsubishi UFJ
KeyBank
BMO
BNP
SunTrust
Golub Capital
CIT Group
Bookrunner vol ($Bils)
1H09 1H07 (pre-mergers)
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Webinar overview -2Q09 review & 3Q09 preview: Better times ahead?
2Q09 sees some stability
What were the biggest changes?
Secondary market rallies; middle market stabilizes Issuance recovers from 1Q levels
Non-sponsored lending up
Non-sponsored issuance is up
Banks lend selectively look for high quality deals
Ancillary business remains very important Spreads are up but some deals get done at aggressive levels
Sponsored issuance shows slight signs of life
A few deals get done volume slightly up
Many obstacles remain
Balancing act between banks and reduced investor base
Amendments take center stage
51% amendments rule
Issuers see spread increases in return for more flexibility
Are better times ahead?
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Non-sponsored lending gets selective
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
x`
Issuance
($B
ils.)
Percentage change in issuance y-o-y
Year-over-year
change(%)
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
Non-sponsored Issuance
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
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Market Survey
In 2009, are you allocating more or less capital formiddle market loans than in 2008?
0%
10%
20%30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
(30%
%o
fre
spondents
2009 Capital allocation change relative to previous year
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey
Percentage change
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Market Survey
Rank in order of importance the following factors youconsider when committing to a new deal
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey
18%
9%
18%
9%
46%
-
%
Ranked#5
27%
-
37%
18%
9%
9%
%
Ranked#3
55%
-
27%
9%
9%
-
%
Ranked#4
-
-
9%
-
18%
73%
%
Ranked#1
-
-
9%
64%
9%
18%
%
Ranked#2
-
91%
-
-
9%
-
%
Ranked#6
Size ofcompany
Yield
Ancillarybusiness
Structure
Industry
Creditquality
Factor
Non-Sponsored Respondents
Credit quality, structure and ancillary business are the top three factors for non-sponsored lenders
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Market Survey Lenders reduced tolerance for leverage revealed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Perc
entofRespondents
3x
2007 2008 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Perc
entofRespondents
2.5x - 3x 3x - 4x > 4x
2007 2008 2009
Total Debt to EBITDASenior Debt to EBITDA
Non-sponsored leverage tolerance levels continue to decline
Majority of lenders focused on non-sponsored want senior leverage under2.5x and total leverage under 4x
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey
Min. acceptable sr. debt to EBITDAMin. acceptable total debt to EBITDA
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Non-sponsored market: spreads high in 2009
100
150
200
250
300
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
LargeTraditional
Non-Sponsored non-M&A Revolvers
LIB+(bps)
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
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Market Survey -
Do you think that 2H09 pricing will increase ordecrease relative to 1H09 pricing?
0%
10%
20%
30%40%
50%
60%
70%
(30%
%o
frespondents
Percentage change
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey
Majority expect spreads to increase
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Middle market sees shorter maturities
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1H
09
Large MMTrad MM
Avg. Maturity Multi-Year Revolvers
Avg.Maturity-
numberofmonths
Trad. MM tenor dispersion: multi-year RCs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 to
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Webinar overview -2Q09 review & 3Q09 preview: Better times ahead?
2Q09 sees some stability
What were the biggest changes?
Secondary market rallies; middle market stabilizes
Issuance recovers from 1Q levels
Non-sponsored lending up
Non-sponsored issuance is up
Banks lend selectively look for high quality deals
Ancillary business remains very important Spreads are up but some deals get done at aggressive levels
Sponsored issuance shows slight signs of life
A few deals get done volume slightly up
Many obstacles remain
Balancing act between banks and reduced investor base
Amendments take center stage
51% amendments rule
Issuers see spread increases in return for more flexibility
Are better times ahead?
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Sponsored issuance up from 1Q levels
0
5
10
15
20
25
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
Other
LBO
Issuance
($Bils.)
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
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Market Survey
Rank in order of importance the following factors youconsider when committing to a new deal
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey
-
71%
-
-
29%
-
%Ranked
#5
71%
-
-
29%
-
-
%Ranked
#3
-
29%
-
-
71%
-
%Ranked
#4
-
-
-
13%
-
87%
%Ranked
#1
29%
-
-
57%
-
14%
%Ranked
#2
-
-
100%
-
-
-
%Ranked
#6
Size ofcompany
Yield
Ancillarybusiness
Structure
Industry
Creditquality
Factor
Sponsored Respondents
Credit quality, structure and yield are the top three factors for sponsored lenders
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Although improved from last quarter, institutionalissuance is still well below historical levels
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
MMI
nstitution
alIssuance($Bi
ls.)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%Institutional Volume % of Total Sponsored Volume
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
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What is your minimum yield requirement?
Assumptions: OID of 97, 4 years to maturity, Libor floor included, otherwise 3-month Libor of .65%
%o
frespondents
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
< 7.5% 7.5 - 8.5% 8.5 - 9.5% 9.5 - 10.5% > 10.5%
Banks
Non-Banks
Total yield
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Term loan spreads and yields
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
*
2Q08
*
3Q08
*
4Q08
*
1Q09
*
2Q09
*
Traditional MM
Large MM
*Discounted spread on loans (assuming a 4-year term to repayment)including OID
Avg.TL
BSpread(bps)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
RepconStrickland
LocalInsight
Ventu
re
Transp
ort
AnchorGla
ss
T
NS
Pharma
net
Travelp
ort
Church'sChicken
Spread due to OID
Contractual spreadLIB Floor
Yiel
d(%)
Term loan spreadsTerm loan yields (4-year-term to repayment)
2Q08 2Q09Traditional MM Deal size $100M to $500MFor all: Borrower sales
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M&A issuance almost non-existent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1Q00
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1Q00
4Q00
3Q01
2Q02
1Q03
4Q03
3Q04
2Q05
1Q06
4Q06
3Q07
2Q08
1Q09
Sponsored M&A Issuance Non-Sponsored M&A Issuance
M&Aissuance
($Bils.)
M&Aissuance
($Bils.)
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
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Amendments take center stage in 1H09
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
Amends &
Extends
1% 100% vote
amendments
23%
51% vote
amendments
48%
Loan
Issuance
(excluding
Amendments)
28%
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Market Survey
Spread increase due to financial covenantamendment
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
%o
fRes
pondents
0 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 300
Spread (bps)
Non Sponsored Sponsored
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Amendment spread increases: Sponsored vs. Non-sponsored
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
45%
%o
fRevolvers
0 - 100 100 -200
200 -300
> 300
Spread Increase bucket (bps)
Sponsored
Non Sponsored
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Listener survey question(Live Poll)
What will drive issuance in 3Q?
M&A/LBO
Capex spending/Corporate purposes
DIPs
Amendments
Refis/Repricings
Exit financings
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Upcoming middle market loan maturities
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
SponsoredNon Spons
x`
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
Maturingvolume($Bils.)
Maturing
volume($Bils.)
Sponsored and non-sponsored Institutional
$127 billion in institutionaltranches is coming due in next 3years
74% of upcoming maturitiesare non-sponsored
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
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Market Survey What will happen with all the MM maturitiesapproaching in the next 3 to 4 years?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Majority
refinanced at
higher spreads
Amends and
extends will
become
popular
Solution hard
to find, defaults
HY Issuance
will reach MM
names
Strategic
buyers will
acquire
%o
frespo
ndents
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey
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Market Survey -
What are your expectations for issuance in 3Q09?
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey
Moderate
Increase (5 to
15%)68%
Moderate
decrease ( 5
to 15%)
5%
Remain flat
16%
Significant
increase
(>15%)
11%
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Market Survey -What will be the most important issue in middle marketlending in 3Q09?
Economic outlook
Increasing default rates
Liquidity is still constrained
Lack of new deal flow beginning of the summer doldrums
Existing portfolio performance
Do buyer and seller expectations meet? What happens to purchase price
multiples?
Sustainability of high-yield rally
Uncertain outcomes for M&A processes
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey
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Thank you for participating in todays webinar:
U.S. MIDDLE MARK ET:
2Q09 Review and 3Q09 Preview:Better times ahead?
Presenter: Diana Diquez, Senior Market AnalystDate: Thursday, July 16, 2009
Time: 11 AM Eastern Standard TimeDuration: 1 hr [includes Q&A session]
If you have any follow-up questions please e-mail us at [email protected] with MiddleMarket in the subject line
Register for our 15th Annual Loan Conference on Sept. 17th!http://www.loanpricing.com/conference.html
For a replay of the large corporate or middle market webinars please register athttp://www.loanpricing.com/LPC_webinars.html