28 November 2013

The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues During the past week rainfall between 50 to 300 millimetres was received across the tropical

north of Australia. Widespread rainfall was also recorded along most of the eastern seaboard and across Tasmania.

In the coming week, significant rainfall is forecast along the coastal top end and adjacent inland areas. Rainfall is also forecast for coastal New South Wales, Southern Queensland and south west Tasmania.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest seasonal outlook suggests a higher than average chance of hotter and drier conditions during the December 2013–February 2014 period for north-eastern Australia.

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased by 331 gigalitres this week and remain at 78 per cent of total capacity.

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$314 a tonne in the week ending 26 November 2013, slightly higher than the average in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$517 a tonne in the week ending 26 November 2013, compared with US$512 a tonne in the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US17.4 cents a pound in the week ending 27 November 2013, around 2 per cent lower than the previous week.

The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by 2 per cent in the week ending 22 November 2013 to 328 cents a kilogram.

Saleyard lamb prices fell in most states in the week ending 22 November 2013. The largest fall occurred in New South Wales where the indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell by 4 per cent. In Victoria and South Australia, the indicator price fell by 2 per cent and 1 per cent respectively. In contrast, the indicator price rose by 10 per cent in Western Australia.

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1. Climate

1.1. Notable events

During the past week rainfall between 50 to 300 millimetres was received across the tropical north of Australia. Widespread rainfall was also recorded along most of the eastern seaboard and across Tasmania during the past week. The heavy rainfall in Tasmania has reportedly caused damage to a variety of freshly planted crops, hindered stock grazing and delayed the sowing of some poppy, pea and pyrethrum crops in the north of the state.

Large areas of western Queensland and north-west New South Wales continue to experience rainfall deficiencies. However, some parts of north-west Queensland that had been experiencing rainfall deficiencies received rain in the past week.

While most Agricultural regions across Australia have seen little or no locust activity during spring 2013, there are some reports of locust hatchings in the eastern central wheat growing region of Western Australia. A few small bands of nymphs were reported in the Merredin and Westonia shires in Western Australia.

In the coming week, significant rainfall is forecast along the coastal top end and adjacent inland areas. Rainfall is also forecast for coastal and northern New South Wales, southern Queensland and the south west of Tasmania.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal rainfall outlook for the December 2013 to February 2014 period indicates that drier than average conditions are more likely for much of north-east Australia, while wetter than average conditions are more likely for Tasmania and across large parts of Western Australia. The temperature outlook indicates that warmer days and nights are more likely over most of eastern Australia and cooler daytime temperatures are more likely over southwest Western Australia (Bureau of Meteorology, Seasonal Outlook, 27 November 2013).

1.2. Rainfall this weekFor the week ending 27 November 2013, rainfall was mainly recorded along the eastern and northern coastal regions of mainland Australia, Tasmania and across central Western Australia. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 275 millimetres at Bowen Airport on the east central coast of Queensland. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 27 November 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 27/11/2013

1.3. Temperature anomalies this weekSpatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 November 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 27/11/2013

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 November 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 27/11/2013

1.4. Rainfall forecastThe rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 28 November to 5 December 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 28/11/2013

1.5. Seasonal outlook

Chance of exceeding the median rainfallDecember 2013 to February 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Model run: 17/11/2013 Issued: 19/11/2013

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperatureDecember 2013 to February 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Model run: 17/11/2013Issued: 19/11/2013

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperatureDecember 2013 to February 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Model run: 17/10/2013Issued: 19/11/2013

2. Water

2.1. Water availabilityWater storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased by 331 gigalitres (GL) this week and remain at 78 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3233 GL less than this time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 28 November 2013 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$314 a

tonne in the week ending 26 November 2013, compared with US$313 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$199 a tonne for the week ending 27 November 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$517 a tonne in the week ending 26 November 2013, compared with US$512 a tonne in the previous week.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US84.7 cents a pound in the week ending 27 November 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.

According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee, the Chinese Government purchased 2.5 million tonnes of 2013–14 domestic cotton for the national reserve as at 21 November 2013, 18 per cent lower than the same time last year.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US17.4 cents a pound in the week ending 27 November 2013, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

Data from the Brazil Sugar Industry Association shows cumulative sugar cane crushing in Brazil’s Centre South region (which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugarcane) for the 2013–14 season was 542.2 million tonnes as at 16 November 2013, around 13 per cent more than the same time last year.

The value of the Australian dollar averaged US91.9 cents in the week ending 27 November 2013, compared with US93.8 cents in the previous week.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $511 a tonne in the week ending 25 November 2013, compared with $510 a tonne in the previous week.

Changes to wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 23 November 2013. Wholesale prices of banana and pineapple were higher, while blueberry and watermelon (seedless) were lower than the previous week.

Changes to wholesale prices of selected vegetables were also mixed in the week ending 23 November 2013. Wholesale prices of cauliflower and iceberg lettuce were higher, while tomato (field gourmet), bean (round) and broccoli were lower than the previous week.

The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by 2 per cent in the week ending 22 November 2013 to 328 cents a kilogram. In New South Wales, young cattle prices rose by 1 per cent to 334 cents a kilogram. In Victoria, young cattle prices fell by 1 per cent to 332 cents a kilogram.

Saleyard lamb prices fell in most states in the week ending 22 November 2013. The largest fall occurred in New South Wales where the indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell by 4 per cent to average 403 cents a kilogram. In Victoria and South Australia, the indicator price fell by 2 per cent and 1 per cent to average 381 cents a kilogram and 384 cents a kilogram, respectively. In contrast, the indicator price rose by 10 per cent in Western Australia to 385 cents a kilogram.

The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool increased by 1 per cent in the week ending 21 November 2013 to 1110 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at auction was 16 per cent higher, compared with the previous sale.

3.2. Selected world indicator prices

3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

3.4. Crop indicator prices

3.5. Livestock indicator prices

3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable pricesWeekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market

4. Data attributionClimateBureau of Meteorology Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Soil moisture: (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/ awap / Bushfire CRC Fire risk: http://www.bushfirecrc.com/news/news-item/southern-australia-seasonal-bushfire-outlook-2013-2014

WaterNew South Wales New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/ New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water:

www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register: www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4Queensland Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au seqwater: http://seqwater.com.auSouth Australia SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/

Victoria Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.auWater trading Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au

CommoditiesFruit and vegetables Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.auMutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspxCattle, mutton, lambs and pigs Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets

Pigs Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au

Canola Weekly Times: hardcopy

DairyGlobal Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/Results/HistoricalData.aspx