28 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Container Corporation · Mansi Lall [email protected]...

9
28 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Container Corporation HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Awaiting clarity on policy We downgrade CONCOR to ADD after the sharp ~50% rally from the recent lows. While the logistics company will be a beneficiary of the DFC in the medium term, the stock will be driven by the policy guidelines of the IR ahead of its proposed privatisation, in the near term. There is a proposal to increase the land license fee by ~3x (media reports also suggest that CONCOR will have to purchase the railways land). Further, as the DFC is delayed due to COVID, volumes are expected to decline in double digits in the current fiscal. 4QFY20 Financials: Volumes for the quarter declined 4% YoY to 941k TEUs, which held up relatively well despite the COVID related disruption. Revenue decline of 14% YoY was in-line with our estimates. EBITDA margin surprised as margins expanded to 30.2%. This was due to lower railways charges (25% reduction in empty running charges by railways), lower employee expense as well as a provision write back of Rs 300mn. Reported PAT at Rs 2.94bn declined 16% YoY. Rs 206mn has been provided towards impairment of investment in its subsidiary Fresh and Healthy. Adj PAT declined 12% YoY to Rs 3.1bn, which was above estimates. Call & other takeaways: (1) Lower guidance in FY21: The management has provided a weak guidance of 20% YoY drop in volumes in FY21E. This is due to weak demand trends/delays in DFC commissioning. (2) Increased land license fees (LLF): After handing over 15 terminals to the Indian Railways (IR), the LLF on the remaining 29 terminals will be Rs 4.5bn vs. Rs 1.4bn in FY20. The co has written to the IR on the significant increase and has requested moratorium of 3-6 months. Clarity on this is awaited. (3) Empty running: In 4QFY20, empty movement of containers (15% of volumes vs. 13% YoY) was higher owing to lower volumes. However, the railways provided a 25% discount on empty running charges, hence the cost was reduced by 11% YoY. (4) Focus on profitable business: While CONCOR has lost market share by 6% in FY20, it is due to non-participation in less profitable short lead traffic/long lead traffic where competitors are offering deep discounts. The co is focusing on providing last mile connectivity to sustain market share. (5) Scaling back on capex spends: FY21 capex has been reduced to Rs 5bn (Rs 10.5bn in FY20). Downgrade to ADD: While we are lowering our FY21 volume estimates, it will be partially offset by improved cost management. We set a TP of Rs 445 @ 22x FY22E EPS (in-line with its historic average trading multiple). Key Risks: A sharper than expected economic recovery and policy clarity on the upside, a further delay in the DFC on the downside. Financial Summary YE Mar (Rs mn) 4Q FY20 4Q FY19 YoY (%) 3Q FY20 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E Net Sales 15,686 18,343 (14.5) 15,276 2.7 61,572 68,819 64,738 56,811 68,782 Adj. EBITDA 4,745 3,829 23.9 3,717 27.6 12,079 14,408 16,749 14,288 17,498 APAT 3,097 3,523 (12.1) 1,755 76.5 10,445 12,154 10,282 9,404 12,231 Adj. EPS (Rs) 5.1 5.8 (12.1) 2.9 76.5 17.1 19.9 16.9 15.4 20.1 P/E (x) 25.3 21.7 25.7 28.1 21.6 EV / EBITDA (x) 19.7 18.2 14.8 17.1 13.7 RoE (%) 11.5 12.3 10.1 9.2 11.4 Source: Company, HSIE Research ADD CMP (as on 26 Jun 2020) Rs 434 Target Price Rs 445 NIFTY 10,383 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating BUY ADD Price Target Rs 445 Rs 445 EPS % FY21E FY22E -2% 0% KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code CCRI IN No. of Shares (mn) 609 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 264/3,498 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 700 52 Week high / low Rs 666/263 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 41.9 (23.5) (23.8) Relative (%) 24.5 (9.0) (12.6) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Promoters 54.8 54.8 FIs & Local MFs 13.5 13.7 FPIs 27.2 26.8 Public & Others 4.5 4.7 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Aditya Makharia [email protected] +91-22-6171-7316 Mansi Lall [email protected] +91-22-6171-7357

Transcript of 28 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Container Corporation · Mansi Lall [email protected]...

Page 1: 28 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Container Corporation · Mansi Lall mansi.lall@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7357 . Page | 2 Container Corporation : Results Review 4QFY20 Quarterly Financial

28 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20

Container Corporation

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Awaiting clarity on policy

We downgrade CONCOR to ADD after the sharp ~50% rally from the recent

lows. While the logistics company will be a beneficiary of the DFC in the

medium term, the stock will be driven by the policy guidelines of the IR

ahead of its proposed privatisation, in the near term. There is a proposal to

increase the land license fee by ~3x (media reports also suggest that CONCOR

will have to purchase the railways land). Further, as the DFC is delayed due to

COVID, volumes are expected to decline in double digits in the current fiscal.

4QFY20 Financials: Volumes for the quarter declined 4% YoY to 941k TEUs,

which held up relatively well despite the COVID related disruption.

Revenue decline of 14% YoY was in-line with our estimates. EBITDA margin

surprised as margins expanded to 30.2%. This was due to lower railways

charges (25% reduction in empty running charges by railways), lower

employee expense as well as a provision write back of Rs 300mn. Reported

PAT at Rs 2.94bn declined 16% YoY. Rs 206mn has been provided towards

impairment of investment in its subsidiary – Fresh and Healthy. Adj PAT

declined 12% YoY to Rs 3.1bn, which was above estimates.

Call & other takeaways: (1) Lower guidance in FY21: The management has

provided a weak guidance of 20% YoY drop in volumes in FY21E. This is

due to weak demand trends/delays in DFC commissioning. (2) Increased

land license fees (LLF): After handing over 15 terminals to the Indian

Railways (IR), the LLF on the remaining 29 terminals will be Rs 4.5bn vs. Rs

1.4bn in FY20. The co has written to the IR on the significant increase and

has requested moratorium of 3-6 months. Clarity on this is awaited. (3)

Empty running: In 4QFY20, empty movement of containers (15% of

volumes vs. 13% YoY) was higher owing to lower volumes. However, the

railways provided a 25% discount on empty running charges, hence the cost

was reduced by 11% YoY. (4) Focus on profitable business: While

CONCOR has lost market share by 6% in FY20, it is due to non-participation

in less profitable short lead traffic/long lead traffic where competitors are

offering deep discounts. The co is focusing on providing last mile

connectivity to sustain market share. (5) Scaling back on capex spends:

FY21 capex has been reduced to Rs 5bn (Rs 10.5bn in FY20).

Downgrade to ADD: While we are lowering our FY21 volume estimates, it

will be partially offset by improved cost management. We set a TP of Rs 445

@ 22x FY22E EPS (in-line with its historic average trading multiple). Key

Risks: A sharper than expected economic recovery and policy clarity on the

upside, a further delay in the DFC on the downside.

Financial Summary

YE Mar (Rs mn) 4Q

FY20

4Q

FY19

YoY

(%)

3Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

Net Sales 15,686 18,343 (14.5) 15,276 2.7 61,572 68,819 64,738 56,811 68,782

Adj. EBITDA 4,745 3,829 23.9 3,717 27.6 12,079 14,408 16,749 14,288 17,498

APAT 3,097 3,523 (12.1) 1,755 76.5 10,445 12,154 10,282 9,404 12,231

Adj. EPS (Rs) 5.1 5.8 (12.1) 2.9 76.5 17.1 19.9 16.9 15.4 20.1

P/E (x)

25.3 21.7 25.7 28.1 21.6

EV / EBITDA (x)

19.7 18.2 14.8 17.1 13.7

RoE (%)

11.5 12.3 10.1 9.2 11.4

Source: Company, HSIE Research

ADD

CMP (as on 26 Jun 2020) Rs 434

Target Price Rs 445

NIFTY 10,383

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating BUY ADD

Price Target Rs 445 Rs 445

EPS % FY21E FY22E

-2% 0%

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code CCRI IN

No. of Shares (mn) 609

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 264/3,498

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 700

52 Week high / low Rs 666/263

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 41.9 (23.5) (23.8)

Relative (%) 24.5 (9.0) (12.6)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Dec-19 Mar-20

Promoters 54.8 54.8

FIs & Local MFs 13.5 13.7

FPIs 27.2 26.8

Public & Others 4.5 4.7

Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0

Source : BSE

Aditya Makharia

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7316

Mansi Lall

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7357

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Container Corporation : Results Review 4QFY20

Quarterly Financial Snapshot

Particulars (Rs mn) 4Q

FY20

4Q

FY19 YoY (%)

3Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY20 FY19

YoY

(%)

Volumes (in TEU) 941,270 978,930 (3.8) 910,407 3.4 3,747,758 3,829,034 (2.1)

Realisation/TEU (Rs) 16,665 18,738 (11.1) 16,779 (0.7) 17,274 17,973 (3.9)

Net Sales 15,686 18,343 (14.5) 15,276 2.7 64,738 68,819 (5.9)

Ex-SEIS 15,686 17,500 (10.4) 15,276 2.7 64,738 65,429 (1.1)

SEIS - 843 - - - - 3,390 (100.0)

Railway Charges 8,120 9,640 (15.8) 8,514 (4.6) 34,984 37,314 (6.2)

Employee Expenses 602 1,097 (45.1) 898 (32.9) 3,135 3,368 (6.9)

Other Operating Expenses 2,220 2,933 (24.3) 2,147 3.4 9,870 10,337 (4.5)

Total Expenses 10,942 13,671 (20.0) 11,559 (5.3) 47,989 51,019 (5.9)

EBITDA 4,745 4,672 1.5 3,717 27.6 16,749 17,800 (5.9)

Adj. EBITDA 4,745 3,829 23.9 3,717 27.6 16,749 14,410 16.2

Depreciation 1,336 1,117 19.6 1,263 5.8 5,130 4,246 20.8

EBIT 3,409 3,555 (4.1) 2,454 38.9 11,619 13,554 (14.3)

Other Income (Including EO

Items) 746 1,288 (42.1) 626 19.1 (6,019) 3,342 (280.1)

Interest Cost 108 7 - 60 80.5 361 7 -

PBT 4,047 4,837 (16.3) 3,021 34.0 5,240 16,889 (69.0)

Tax 1,102 1,313 (16.1) 1,266 (13.0) 1,484 4,735 (68.7)

RPAT 2,945 3,523 (16.4) 1,755 67.8 3,756 12,155 (69.1)

EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) (152) - - - - (6,524) -

APAT 3,097 3,523 (12.1) 1,755 76.5 10,280 12,155 (15.4)

EPS 5.1 5.8 (12.1) 2.9 76.5 16.9 19.9 (15.4)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Quarterly Performance Analysis

As % of sales 4Q

FY20

4Q

FY19 YoY (bps)

3Q

FY20 QoQ (bps) FY20 FY19

YoY

(bps)

Railway Charges 51.8 52.6 (79) 55.7 (397) 54.0 54.2 (18)

Employee Expenses 3.8 6.0 (214) 5.9 (204) 4.8 4.9 (5)

Other Operating Expenses 14.1 16.0 (184) 14.1 9 15.2 15.0 22

Total Expenses 69.8 74.5 (477) 75.7 (591) 74.1 74.1 (1)

EBITDA 30.2 25.5 477 24.3 591 25.9 25.9 1

Adj. EBITDA 30.2 21.9 836 24.3 591 25.9 22.0 385

APAT Margin (%) 19.7 19.2 54 11.5 826 15.9 17.7 (178)

Tax Rate (%) 27.2 27.2 8 41.9 (1,468) 28.3 28.0 29

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Segmental performance

4Q

FY20

4Q

FY19 YoY (%)

3Q

FY20 QoQ (%) FY20 FY19

YoY

(%)

Domestic

Volumes (in TEU) 165,951 162,534 2.1 143,585 15.6 593,162 584,127 1.5

Realisation/TEU 26,390 26,627 (0.9) 24,810 6.4 26,024 25,339 2.7

Revenue 4,380 4,328 1.2 3,562 22.9 15,437 14,801 4.3

EBIT margin (%) 9.1 5.2 383bps 0.7 838bps 5.2 6.4 -112bps

EXIM

Volumes (in TEU) 775,319 816,396 (5.0) 766,822 1.1 3,154,596 3,244,907 (2.8)

Realisation/TEU 14,583 17,167 (15.0) 15,275 (4.5) 15,628 16,647 (6.1)

Revenue 11,307 14,015 (19.3) 11,713 (3.5) 49,301 54,018 (8.7)

EBIT margin (%) 30.3 27.9 234bps 23.9 634bps 7.5 26.1 -1862bps

Source: Company, HSIE Research

In 4QFY20, volumes

declined by just 4% as

railways has gained

market share in the

COVID environment. Price

hikes of ~3-4% has been

deferred till Oct-20

Adjusted for ~Rs 850mn of

SEIS income in 4QFY19,

EBITDA grew by 24% YoY

The quarter has an

exceptional loss of Rs

206mn towards

impairment of investment

is a subsidiary - Fresh &

Healthy Enterprises Ltd.

The co has an investment

of Rs 2.15bn in this wholly

owned subsidiary

Tax rates are expected to

move lower as the co has

moved to the new tax

structure

The co’s coastal shipping

business is temporarily

stopped due to the current

environment and is

expected to resume in the

end of CY20

CONCOR will not pay

any advance freight in

FY21E (vs Rs 30bn paid in

FY20)

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Page | 3

Container Corporation : Results Review 4QFY20

Volumes impacted amidst a weak macro backdrop EXIM volumes

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

EBITDA Margins surprised PAT: Not comparable YoY due to SEIS income

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Current port-wise mix (%) CONCOR’s market share at various ports

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

18

.7 11

.0

13

.5

6.5

2.9

(0.9

)

(2.0

)

(1.7

)

(3.8

)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

800

850

900

950

1,000 4

QF

Y1

8

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

Total volumes (in TEUs '000) % YoY - RHS

19

.8

11

.4

12

.7

6.3

2.5

(1.0

)

(2.7

)

(2.4

)

(5.0

)

-10

0

10

20

700

750

800

850

4Q

FY

18

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

EXIM volumes (in TEUs '000) % YoY - RHS

20%

25%

30%

35%

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

4Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

EBITDA ex SEIS (Rs mn)

EBITDA ex SEIS margin (%) - RHS

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4Q

FY

18

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

APAT (Rs mn) % YoY - RHS

JNPT, 33%

Mundra,

33%

Pipavav,

14%

Others,

19%

66

%

49

%

44

%

20%

40%

60%

80%

JNPT Pipavav Mundra

1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20

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Container Corporation : Results Review 4QFY20

Empty running charges Double stacked trains reduced due to lower imports

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Lead distance (in kms) Rail co-efficient at various ports (%)

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

1 year forward P/E band

Source: Company, HSIE Research

300

380

460

540

620

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

Empty running charges (Rs mn)

450

550

650

750

850

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

Double stack trains

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

EXIM Domestic

17

%

67

%

26

%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

JNPT Pipavav Mundra

1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20

10

20

30

40

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Dec

-17

Jun

-18

Dec

-18

Jun

-19

Dec

-19

Jun

-20

P/E Mean +1 SD -1 SD

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Container Corporation : Results Review 4QFY20

Volume assumptions

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Domestic TEU 448,178 460,516 529,952 584,160 593,162 545,709 633,022

% YoY (8) 3 15 10 2 (8) 16

EXIM TEU 2,475,868 2,641,695 3,001,948 3,245,259 3,154,596 2,681,407 3,190,856

% YoY (6) 7 14 8 (3) (15) 19

Total TEU 2,924,046 3,102,211 3,531,900 3,829,419 3,747,758 3,227,116 3,823,878

% YoY (6) 6 14 8 (2) (14) 18

Realisations (in INR) 20,252 17,781 17,433 17,971 17,274 17,604 17,988

% Growth 13 (12) (2) 3 (4) 2 2

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Change in Estimates

Rs mn New Old Change (%)

FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E

Net Revenue 56,811 68,782 61,582 72,547 (8) (5)

EBITDA 14,288 17,498 14,564 17,846 (2) (2)

EBITDA margin (%) 25.2 25.4 23.7 24.6 150 bps 84 bps

PAT 9,404 12,231 9,611 12,280 (2) (0)

EPS 15.4 20.1 15.8 20.2 (2) (0)

Source: HSIE Research

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Container Corporation : Results Review 4QFY20

Financials Standalone Income Statement

(Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

Net Revenues 59,217 55,161 61,572 68,819 64,738 56,811 68,782

Growth (%) 6.2 -6.8 11.6 11.8 -5.9 -12.2 21.1

Railway Charges 41,984 39,037 41,683 45,175 42,468 37,382 45,396

Employee Cost 1,568 1,869 2,779 3,368 3,135 2,954 3,026

Other Expenses 2,281 2,136 2,352 2,477 2,386 2,187 2,861

Total Expenditure 45,834 43,042 46,814 51,019 47,989 42,523 51,284

EBITDA 13,384 12,119 14,758 17,800 16,749 14,288 17,498

EBITDA Margin (%) 22.6 22.0 24.0 25.9 25.9 25.2 25.4

Adj. EBITDA 11,130 10,004 12,079 14,408 16,749 14,288 17,498

Adj. EBITDA Margin (%) 19.5 18.9 20.5 22.0 25.9 25.2 25.4

EBITDA Growth (%) -14.1 -10.1 20.7 19.3 16.3 -14.7 22.5

Depreciation 3,478 3,518 3,927 4,246 5,130 5,124 5,213

EBIT 9,906 8,601 10,832 13,554 11,619 9,164 12,285

Other Income (Including EO Items) 3,175 2,892 3,026 3,342 (6,019) 3,263 3,733

Interest 2 37 1 7 361 198 144

PBT 13,080 11,457 13,857 16,889 5,240 12,229 15,874

Tax (Incl Deferred) 3,578 3,105 3,412 4,735 1,482 2,825 3,643

RPAT 9,502 8,351 10,445 12,154 3,758 9,404 12,231

EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - - - - (6,524) - -

APAT 9,502 8,351 10,445 12,154 10,282 9,404 12,231

APAT Growth (%) (9.3) (12.1) 25.1 16.4 (15.4) (8.5) 30.1

Adjusted EPS (Rs) 15.6 13.7 17.1 19.9 16.9 15.4 20.1

EPS Growth (%) (9.3) (12.1) 25.1 16.4 (15.4) (8.5) 30.1

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Standalone Balance Sheet

(Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital - Equity 1,950 1,950 2,437 3,047 3,047 3,047 3,047

Reserves 81,507 86,284 91,300 100,632 97,533 101,436 107,227

Total Shareholders Funds 83,457 88,234 93,737 103,679 100,580 104,482 110,273

Total Debt - - - 7,007 101 113 124

Deferred Tax Liability 3,264 2,281 1,732 1,616 (970) (873) (786)

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 86,720 90,515 95,469 112,301 99,711 103,722 109,612

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 28,000 33,698 36,484 41,947 44,942 44,940 46,847

CWIP 5,133 5,071 6,710 6,247 6,122 5,999 5,879

Investments 6,826 6,989 7,142 7,280 7,531 7,782 8,033

Total Non-current Assets 39,959 45,758 50,336 55,474 58,595 58,722 60,760

Cash & Equivalents 31,120 23,583 26,566 8,453 16,647 19,733 23,752

Inventories 177 225 274 233 177 156 188

Debtors 493 425 604 884 834 732 886

Other Current Assets 22,548 29,966 29,280 61,025 37,716 38,693 39,530

Total Current Assets 54,338 54,199 56,723 70,594 55,374 59,313 64,357

Creditors 7,070 8,757 10,886 13,048 13,395 13,277 14,261

Other Current Liabilities & Provns 507 686 704 719 863 1,036 1,243

Total Current Liabilities 7,577 9,443 11,590 13,767 14,259 14,313 15,504

Net Current Assets 46,761 44,757 45,133 56,827 41,116 45,000 48,852

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 86,720 90,515 95,469 112,301 99,711 103,722 109,612

Source: Company, HSIE Research

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Container Corporation : Results Review 4QFY20

Standalone Cash Flow (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

Reported PBT 13,080 11,457 13,857 16,889 5,240 12,229 15,874

Non-operating & EO Items (3,175) (2,892) (3,026) (3,342) 6,019 (3,263) (3,733)

Interest Expenses 2 37 1 7 361 198 144

Depreciation 3,478 3,518 3,927 4,246 5,130 5,124 5,213

Working Capital Change (10,068) (5,532) 2,606 (29,806) 23,906 (799) 168

Tax Paid (2,381) (4,088) (3,961) (4,851) (4,067) (2,728) (3,556)

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 934 2,499 13,403 (16,858) 36,588 10,761 14,110

Capex (1,185) (9,155) (8,352) (9,245) (8,000) (5,000) (7,000)

Free Cash Flow (FCF) (251) (6,656) 5,052 (26,103) 28,588 5,761 7,110

Investments (92) (162) (153) (139) (251) (251) (251)

Non-operating Income 3,175 2,892 3,026 3,342 (6,019) 3,263 3,733

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 1,898 (6,425) (5,479) (6,042) (14,270) (1,988) (3,518)

Debt Issuance/(Repaid) - - - 7,007 (6,906) 12 11

Interest Expenses (2) (37) (1) (7) (361) (198) (144)

FCFE (253) (6,693) 5,051 (19,104) 21,322 5,575 6,977

Share Capital Issuance 766 725 57 5,609 - 0 (0)

Dividend (3,168) (4,299) (4,998) (7,821) (6,857) (5,501) (6,439)

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (2,404) (3,611) (4,942) 4,787 (14,123) (5,687) (6,572)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 428 (7,537) 2,982 (18,113) 8,194 3,086 4,019

Closing Cash & Equivalents 31,120 23,583 26,566 8,453 16,647 19,733 23,752

Key Ratios

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

PROFITABILITY (%)

Adj. GPM 26.3 26.4 29.2 31.0 34.4 34.2 34.0

Adj. EBITDA Margin 19.5 18.9 20.5 22.0 25.9 25.2 25.4

EBIT Margin 16.7 15.6 17.6 19.7 17.9 16.1 17.9

APAT Margin 16.0 15.1 17.0 17.7 15.9 16.6 17.8

RoE 11.9 9.7 11.5 12.3 10.1 9.2 11.4

RoIC (or Core RoCE) 13.9 10.2 12.0 11.3 8.9 8.4 11.1

RoCE 11.5 9.5 11.2 11.7 9.8 9.4 11.6

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 27.4 27.1 24.6 28.0 28.3 23.1 23.0

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5

Inventory (days) 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0

Debtors (days) 3.0 2.8 3.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7

Payables (days) 43.6 57.9 64.5 69.2 75.5 85.3 75.7

Debt/EBITDA (x) - - - 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net D/E (x) (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)

Interest Coverage (x) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 15.6 13.7 17.1 19.9 16.9 15.4 20.1

CEPS 33.3 30.4 23.6 26.9 25.3 23.8 28.6

Dividend 13.5 19.0 17.1 12.3 9.6 7.7 9.0

Book Value 214 226 154 170 165 171 181

VALUATION

P/E (x) 27.8 31.6 25.3 21.7 25.7 28.1 21.6

P/BV (x) 2.0 1.9 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 14.5 19.7 18.2 14.8 17.1 13.7

EV/Revenues (x) 2.3 2.6 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.3 3.5

OCF/EV (%) 0.7 1.7 5.6 (6.4) 14.8 4.4 5.9

FCF/EV (%) (0.2) (4.6) 2.1 (9.9) 11.5 2.4 3.0

FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) (0.1) (4.0) 1.9 (7.2) 8.1 2.1 2.6

Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 4.4 3.9 2.8 2.2 1.8 2.1

Source: Company, HSIE Research

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Container Corporation : Results Review 4QFY20

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: >10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target

4-Jul-19 573 BUY 670

10-Jul-19 549 BUY 670

2-Aug-19 515 BUY 660

11-Oct-19 564 BUY 630

31-Oct-19 588 BUY 645

30-Dec-19 573 BUY 640

9-Jan-20 553 BUY 640

12-Feb-20 575 BUY 635

2-Mar-20 510 BUY 665

28-Jun-20 434 ADD 445

From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

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Container Corp. TP

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Container Corporation : Results Review 4QFY20

HDFC securities

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Board: +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com

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