26th World Gas Conferencemembers.igu.org/old/IGU Events/wgc/wgc-2015... · Key Technical and Market...
Transcript of 26th World Gas Conferencemembers.igu.org/old/IGU Events/wgc/wgc-2015... · Key Technical and Market...
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1 – 5 June 2015, Paris, France
26th World Gas Conference
SP 3: 2050 Prospective Study
Prospects for Natural Gas up to 2050
Ulco Vermeulen
N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie
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Report headlines
• Energy Scenarios to 2050
• Key Technical and Market Developments
– Global LNG, Unconventional gas, gas and renewables, gas for transport
• Key Policy Developments
– Energy security, environmental and climate policies
• Conclusions and recommendations
• Visions from IGU Wise Persons:
– Coby van der Linde
– Daniel Yergin
– Nobuo Tanaka2
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Energy Scenarios to 2050 (1)
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All major energy scenarios are positive about long-term future for gas (BP, IEA,
WEC, Shell, ExxonMobil)
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6 oC
4 oC
2 oC
EJ Natural Gas in 2050
*extrapolation from 2040
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Energy Scenarios to 2050 (2)
4Does this mean that we can look forward to a Golden Age for Gas?
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Key Technical and Market Developments (1)
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Global LNG
• New capacity on stream
• Floating LNG
• More Liquid market
• Challenge of high production cost
Global Liquefaction Capacity Build-Out,1990-2018Sources: IHS, IGU, Company Announcements
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Key Technical and Market Developments (2)
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Developments in unconventional gas:
• Increased opportunities to release
trapped gas
• Shale gas
• Coal bed Methane
• Gas Hydrates
Stakeholder management and reducing
footprint is key
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Key Technical and Market Developments (3)
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Gas and renewables
• Growth in intermittent renewables, in particular solar
• Changing role for gas
• Partner with renewables
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Wind Solar
GW
Sources: EPIA, GWEC
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Key Technical and Market Developments (4)
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Gas for Transport
• Alternative to oil-based fuel, large potential in heavy duty vehicles including
shipping
• Lower emissions (CO2, NOx, sulphur, particulate matter) and noise reduction
• Challenges: infrastructure, regulation and oil versus gas price
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Key Policy Developments (1)
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Energy Security
• Geopolitical issues
• Ample (unconventional) supplies
• Growth in LNG Trade
• International collaboration
Environmental policies (“pollution”)
• Positive compared to oil and coal
• Negative compared to renewables
• Important: reasonable price
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Key Policy Developments (2)
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Climate policies (CO2)
• Uncertainty in policies
• Carbon pricing
• Minimizing methane emissions/footprint
– Reducing flaring
– Footprint reduction
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Conclusions and Recommendations
Many opportunities for bright future but strong
continuous efforts required to make it a reality
Industry needs to:
Continue to bring down costs (in particular in LNG)
to remain competitive
Continue to reduce environmental impact of gas
Embrace innovation and renewables
Reduce interdependencies
Demonstrate and advocate
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Thank you for your attention!