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Inner City Residential Structure and DeclineAuthor(s): Truman A. HartshornSource: Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 61, No. 1 (Mar., 1971), pp.72-96Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. on behalf of the Association of American GeographersStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2569319 .

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INNER CITY RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURE AND DECLINETRUMAN A. HARTSHORN

ABSTRACT. The lack of an adequate theoretical foundation to explain residentialstructure as becomeincreasinglyvident s researchersttempt o incorporate lightedareas of the city into a conceptual framework.Empirical evidence based on CedarRapids data indicatesthat the findings f social area analysts are applicable to theinner citywith its downgradedsocioeconomiccharacterand abundant substandardhousing.A case is made fordeclineand expansion,mprovementnd contraction, ithrespect to housingquality being instancesof a commonprocess of residential hange.Expanding povertyand/or ghettoareas, coupled with intra-urbanmigrationflowssuperimposedon a relatively ixedhousing stock, uggestthat decline followsa con-centricring expansionprocessmost accelerated along sectors experiencing he mostrapid out-migration,articularlyn those areas away from he expandingghetto. KEYWORDS: Cedar Rapids, Housing quality, nner city,Residential uccession,Social areaanalysis,Urban structure.ANY of the social and economicprob-lems facing urban areas are concen-trated in the inner city. Urban poverty,"slums," "ghettos,"and blighted neighbor-hoods are all located in the innercityarea.'Preliminary 970 estimatesof urban poverty

Accepted orpublication April1970.Dr. Hartshorns Associate rofessor fGeographytGeorgia tateUniversityn Atlanta.

1E. M. Hoover, "The Evolving Form and Orga-nization of the Metropolis," in H. S. Perloff and L.Wingo, Jr., eds., Issues in Urban Economics (Wash-ington: Resources for the Future, 1968), pp. 237-84; H. M. Rose, "The Development of an UrbanSubsystem: The Case of the Negro Ghetto," Annals,Association of American Geographers, Vol. 60(1970), pp. 1-17; M. Anderson, The Federal Bull-dozer (Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology Press, 1964); I. S. Lowry, ed., Recommen-dationsfor Research n Supportof Federal UrbanPrograms, RM-5503-HUD (Santa Monica: The RandCorporation, 1968); A. H. Pascal, ed., Cities inTrouble: An Agendafor Urban Research,RM-5603-RC (Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1968);R. E. Erb, "An Economic Analysis of Urban Resi-dential Blight," unpublished doctoral dissertation,Stanford University, 1968; J. S. Adams and R.Sanders, "Urban Residential Structure and the Lo-cation of Stress in Ghettos," Earth and MineralSciences, Vol. 38 (1969), pp. 29-33; A. D. Manvel,Housing Conditions n Urban PovertyAreas, Re-search Report No. 9, (Washington, D. C.: TheNational Commission on Urban Problems, 1968);and U. S. Congress, Subcommitteeon Urban Affairs,UrbanAmerica:Goals and Problems,HearingsandMaterial (Washington: Government Printing Office,1967).

areas for the fifty-nineargest cities in theUnited States show strikingncreases n theirareal extent over the past decade.2 Particu-larly acute in these areas is the impactionofother urban ills such as old, substandard,overcrowded housing, and high welfare,crime, and illegitimacyrates. A high pro-portion of black and other minoritygrouphouseholds are also concentratedhere.3The lack of an adequate theoreticalfoun-dation to explain the residential tructure fcentral city areas has become increasinglyevident as scholars attempt to incorporatethis declining portionof the city nto a con-ceptual framework. The purpose of thispaper is to gain insight nto the behavioralprocesses modeling the residential structureof these decliningareas. The firstpart dis-cusses existing literature dealing with theresidential structureof the city, with par-ticular emphasis on two interactingforces,temporal eclineand expansion f ow qualityhousing; the second part analyzes the actualexpansion and intensification f residentialdecline in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, for the period1940-1960.2A. I. Winard, personal communication.3 K. E. and A. F. Taeuber,Negroes n Cities: Resi-dentialSegregation nd Change, (Chicago: AldinePublishing Co., 1965); D. B. Lee, Analysis and De-scription f Residential egregation,Ithaca: Centerfor Housing and Environmental Studies, CornellUniversity, 1966); and R. E. Zelder, "Racial Segre-gation and Urban Housing Markets," Journal ofRegional Science, Vol. 10 (1970), pp. 93-105.

72

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1971 INNER CrM'Y 73THEOBETICAL FOUNDATION

Descriptionsof residentiallocations, andindirectly,ousingquality, re based on well-known generalizations hat land prices andresidentialdensitiesincrease toward centrallocationswithin he city. Evidence is mount-ing,however, hat rentand densitygradientsare inadequate to explain residentialspace,and that certainforcescounterthis concep-tualization.4In the firstplace, Harris suggested thatthe trade-off etween increased space andtravel distance, thoughtto explain housingconsumption,s not realistic.5Contemporaryurban familiesapparently do not substitutespace and rent savings for accessibility, orthey can have both in outlying areas.Secondly, the success of recentlydevelopedcentral city rental complexes indicates thatthe more affluentwould live closer to thecenter of the city if densities and qualitylevelswere in line withcurrent tyles, refer-ences, and technological tandards. Stegmanhas suggested that a reversal in incomegroups might accompany such changes inthe housingmatrix,with the wealthy n theinnercity nd thepoorer on themargins, otunlike the situation n European citiesin thepast.6 Thirdly, Johnsonsuggested that thetraditionalconstruotsthought to describeurbanresidential tructure pply onlyto thewhitecommunity,nd are not relevant o thenonwhite ector, which is becominga largepart of most large NorthAmerican cities.74C. Clark, UrbanPopulationDensities,"Journalof the Royal Statistical ociety,Series A, Vol. 114(1951), pp. 490-96; J. D. Herbert nd B. H. Stevens,"A Model for the Distribution f ResidentialActivi-ties nUrbanAreas,"Journal fRegional cience,Vol.2 (1960), pp. 21-36; L. Wingo,Jr.,Transportationand UrbanLand (Washington:Resources for theFuture,1961); W. Alonso,Locationand Land Use(Cambridge:HarvardUniversityress,1964); B. E.Newling, "Urban Growth and Spatial Structure:MathematicalModels and Empirical Evidence,"Geographical eview,Vol. 56 (1966), pp. 213-25;and B. E. Newling, The SpatialVariation f UrbanPopulation ensities,"Geographical eview,Vol. 59(1969), pp. 242-52.5 B. Harris, QuantitativeModels of Urban De-velopment,"n Perloff nd Wingo, op. cit.,footnote

1, p. 393.6M. A. Stegman, Accessibility odels and Resi-dentialLocation,"Journal f theAmerican nstituteof Planners, ol. 35 (1969), p. 24.7R. J. Johnson,ersonal ommunication.

Several theoretical tudies of urban struc-turehave made the simplifyingf unrealisticassumptionof a single central employmentarea in the city.8Given boith he behavioralprocesses nvolved n residentialdevelopmentand the decentralizedstructure f the city,witha nearuniformityfemploymententersand retail outlets,the scholarmust discardthis assumption.9High rise apartments hatwere once onlya part of the centralcity arenow foundthroughouthe city, ncluding hesuburbs. These observations uggestthat thetraditionalhypotheses for explaining landuses, based on land value gradients and ac-cessibilitymeasures, re erroneous.10Perhaps the needed insightinto the be-havioral processes modelingurban develop-ment could be obtained by focusingmorespecifically n the tastes and preferences fhouseholds. Existingmaterial on the socialperformance f housingsuggeststhat tenantsatisfaction s a complex problem and thatresidentshave attitudes unlike those pre-sented in the past. Simmons indicates,forexample, that residentsmove much morefrequentlyhanhas been supposed, oftenfortrivialreasons.1"And, given a choice, resi-dents will tend to choose a givenneighbor-

8Alonso,op. cit., footnote .9D. E. Boyce, "Urban Travel Patterns," ournalof RegionalScience,Vol. 6 (1965), p. 79; R. Muth,"The Spatial Structure f the Housing Market,"Papers and Proceedingsf the Regional Science As-sociation, ol. 7 (1961), pp. 207-20; R. Muth, TheVariation f PopulationDensity nd itsComponentsin South Chicago,"Papers and Proceedings f theRegional Science Association, ol. 15 (1965), pp.173-84; and L. S. Bourne, "Market,Location andSite Selection n Apartmentonstruction,"anadianGeographer, ol. 12 (1968), p. 216.10I. S. Lowry,Seven Models of Urban Develop-ment:A Structuralomparison Santa Monica: RaindCorporation, 967), pp. 34-38; G. L. Peterson,AModel of Preference:QuantitativeAnalysisof thePerception f the Visual Appearanceof ResidentialNeighborhoods," ournal f RegionalScience,Vol. 7(1967), pp. 19-32; E. W. Butler, t. al., MovingBehavior nd Residential ehavior:A National Sur-vey (Chapel Hill: Center for Urban and RegionalStudies, Universityf North Carolina, 1968); andF. S. Chapinand T. Logan, "Patterns f Time andSpace Use," in H. D. Perloff, d., The Quality ofthe UrbanEnvironmentWashington:Resources orthe Future,1969), pp. 305-32.11'J.Simmons, The Changing Residencein theCity:A Review of Intra-Urban obility," eograph-ical Review,Vol. 63 (1968), p. 650.

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74 TRUMAN A. -IABTSIIOBN Marchhood even if it means locating n a less de-sirable house than what mightbe availablein a less exclusiveneighborhood.One promis-ing approach to exploit fullythe behavioralaspects of intra-urbanmigrations to view itas a process of adjustment nvolving he sub-stitutionof one residence for another tosatisfymore fullyhousehold needs and de-sires, using the notion of place utility.'2

RESIDENTIAL STRUCWURESociologists, economists,and geographershave contributed o a greaterunderstandingofthe distributivemechanisms t work n thecity, notwithstanding he paucity of well-founded theory. Berry has indicated that

cities are highly tructured, oth locationallyand functionally, s a consequence of theseprocesses.13Early descriptivegeneralizationsconcerning housing, by Hurd and others,related neighborhood characteristics, spe-cially ncomeand rentals, o two simultaneouspatterns f growthwhich were called centraland axial.14Hoyt ater expanded on thethemeof sectoralor axial growth n his studies ofChicago.15 Burgess observed that citieswerestructured n concentric rings around thecentral business district.16 Subsequent re-search has revealed that both sectors andrings characterize he spatial structure f thecity. Most analyses of 'the socioeconomicstructure f residential reas have been con-ceived, somewhat arbitrarily,n the frame-work of social area analyses and threerecurrent imensions, conomicstatus,family

12 P. H. Rossi,WhyFamiliesMove:A Study n theSocial Psychology f Urban ResidentialMobility(Glencoe: Free Press, 955); J. Wolpert,BehavioralAspects f theDecisonto Migrate," apersand Pro-ceedings fthe Regional cienceAssociation, ol. 25(1965), pp. 159-69; and L. A. Brown and D. B.Longbrake,Migration lows in Intra-urbanpace:Place UtilityConsiderations,"nnals,Association fAmericanGeographers,ol. 60 (1970), pp. 368-84.13 B. J. L. Berry, Internal tructuref the City,"Law and Contemporaryroblems,Vol. 30 (1965),pp. 111-19.14 R. M. Hurd, Principles f City Land Values(New York: The Recordand Guide, 1903).15H. Hoyt, The Structurend Growthof Resi-dentialNeighborhoodsnAmerican ities Washing-ton: FederalHousingAdministration,939).16E. W. Burgess, UrbanAreas," n T. V. Smithand L. D. White,eds., Chicago:An ExperimentnSocial Science Research, Chicago: The Universityof Chicago Press,1929), pp. 113-38.

status, and ethnic status,have consistentlybeen identified. Rigorous analytical toolshave confirmedthese basic dimensions inseveralAmerican, uropean,Asian,and Afri-can countries.17The spatial expression of socioeconomicareas reveals threegeneral independentpat-ternsof residentswithinthe city: 1) axial,2) concentric, nd 3) multiplenuclei. Theconcentric, or ring, pattern is generallyreferred oas a familytructure imension. tscomponents include the age structure ofhousing nd neighborhoods,ousingdensities,incidence of multiple unit structures,oc-cupancy status,and participation f womenin the labor force. The axial, or sector,pat-

tern is characterizedby socioeconomicrankvariations which include education levels,occupationtypes, ncome,and value ofhous-ing. The separationof high and low statussectors, on high ground with its superioramenities nd in lowlying ndustrial nd com-mercial areas, respectively, s readily ac-counted for by this axial conceptualization."Thus, at the edge of the city are newer,occupant-owned, single family homes, inwhich reside larger familieswith youngerchildren than nearer the city center, andwherethe wife stays at home."18The third,or multiple nuclei, pattern is exhibited byghettosand minority roup enclaves, and isoftenreferred o as a segregationdimension.Associated with this patternare such vari-ables as deterioratedhousing,high rates ofrenteroccupancy,overcrowding,nd a gen-eral lack of household amenities.

17 T. R. Andersonnd J. Egeland,"SpatialAspectsof Social Area Analysis," merican ociologicalRe-view,Vol. 26 (1961), pp. 392-98; R. M. Murdie,FactorialEcology of Metropolitan oronto,1951-1961:An Essayon the Social Geographyf theCity,ResearchPaper No. 116, (Chicago: UniversityfChicago,Departmentf Geography, 968); B. J.L.Berry nd E. Neils, "Location,Size and Shape ofCities as Influencedby Environmentalactors" inPerloff, p. cit., footnote 0, pp. 288-302; B. J. L.Berry and P. H. Rees, "The FactorialEcology ofCalcutta,"American. ournal f Sociology,Vol. 19,pp. 445-91; F. L. Sweetser, Factor Structure sEcological Structuren Helsinki and Boston,"ActaSociologica,Vol. 26 (1965), pp. 205-25; and J. L.Abu-Lughod, FactorialEcology of Cairo, Egypt,"American ociologicalReview,Vol. 34 (1969), pp.198-211.18 Berry, p. cit.,footnote 3, p. 116.

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1971 INNER CITY 75Further nsight nto the structure f segre-gated residentialneighborhoods s providedby Rose, who calls the ghetto an aberrationin the process of urban structuraldevelop-ment.19The axial and concentricpattern of

urban residentialcharacteristics s basic toRose's conceptualization f the process. Histheory s that ghettos have both axial andconcentric ring tendencies. Initial regularconcentric atterns n the city are distortedand similar oncentric atterns mergewithinthe ghetto. Gradually the ghetto itself be-comesa reversewedge or sector,with a widebase near thecentralbusinessdistrict nd itsapex advancingwithin an establishedsector.TEMPORAL CHANGE: THE PROCESS OF DECLINEThe lack of vitality n, and the increasingburdens placed on, the rest of the city areemphasized n studies dealing with incipientdecline in low quality residential areas.Walker listed several factors ssociated withinternaltemporal decline:201) high but falling and values,2) crowdedbut decreasingpopulation,3) vacantbuildings,4) heavilymortgagedproperty,5) low average rentals,6) low economic status of inhabitants,7) excessivecrimes and disease rates,8) high per capita and per acre govern-ment costs,9) tax delinquency.The New YorkMetropolitan tudies, espe-cially those edited by Hoover and Vernon,have indicated he sequential natureof neigh-

borhoodchange.21A five-step emporalproc-ess of neighborhood hange is postulated:1) single familyresidences,2) transition,3) downgrading,4) thinning ut,5) renewal.19H. M. Rose, personal communication.20 M. Walker, Urban Blight and Slums (Cam-

bridge: Harvard University Press, 1938).21E. M. Hoover and R. Vernon, Anatomy f aMetropolisCambridge: Harvard University Press,1959); and R. Vernon,Metropolis 985 (Cambridge:Harvard UniversityPress, 1960).

Hoover explains this process by usingchanges in the rate of growth.22 He saysblight exists mainly in the inner-transitionzone and is a result of threecauses:1) the vertical diversion of expansion inurban core,2) slackening growthof cities as a wholeand an absolute decline in property alues,3) the automobile.Taeuber and Taeuber, in their study ofresidential segregation and the process ofneighborhood change, were primarilynter-ested in the racial state of census tracts ndset up a classification cheme to help explainchanges n them.28Theircategories ncluded:1) established Negro areas,2) stable interracial reas,3) consolidated areas,4) areas of displacement.More revealing n the conceptualization ftemporal decline are the filter-down rocessand the tipping-point mechanism. Whatsociologists ave foryears called thefiltering-down process frequently follows where a

successionoffamilies ccupya residence.Theclassic explanation of this process involvesformer esidentsmovingfrom n area creat-ing a "vacuum" and newer residents,havingless exacting astes and lowerincomes,enter-ing the area.24 They are unable to take asgood care of the property s the previousowners,and the resultingmaintenancegapleads to a decline in housingquality,particu-larly fthe process continues hrough everalchanges in ownership. As the cycle of de-cline continueshousing becomes renteroc-

22E. M. Hoover,The Location of EconomicAc-tivity, New York: McGraw Hill Book Company,1948).23 Taeuber and Taeuber, op. cit., footnote .24E. P. Wolf, "The Tipping Point in RaciallyChangingNeighborhoods,"ournal f the AmericatiInstitute f Planners,Vol. 29 (1963), pp. 217-23;E. P. Wolf, The Invasion-Successionequence as aSelf-Fulfilling rophecy,"Journalof Social Issues,Vol. 13 (1957), pp. 7-20; W. F. Smith, ilteringindNeighborhood hange (Berkeley: The Center forReal EstateandUrbanEconomics,nstitute f Urbanand RegionalDevelopment, niversityf California,1964); and M. Grodzins, he Metropolitanrea as aRacial Problem Pittsburgh: niversityf PittsburghPress, 1958).

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76 TLuMAN A. HALRTSHIOliN Marchcupied. Absentee ownership nd rapid turn-over encouragefurther uality decline.The importance f the filter-downrocessis thatit represents pervasiveforcewhichoperates,at least initially, ndependently fphysical deterioration.The only necessarycondition for this process is new housingconstruction, iven the changingtastes andpreferences f urban residents esulting romincreased affluence and technological ad-vancements. New constructionpermits anoutmigration f households from older resi-dential developments, nd these more desir-able newerresidences t the same timereducethe value of earlierhousing. Lower incomeresidents re thenfree to move in. Thus theagingofhousing, ccompaniedby diminishedvalue, is conduciveto thefilter-downrocess.After a few decades quality decline isusuallyassociatedwith the process. Althoughdeteriorationould be arrested, t frequentlyassumes a continuousdownward sequenceuntil housingreaches the lower end of thequality continuum, nlythento be razed orrehabilitated. This trend was noted byHoover and Vernon in New York City.25However,declines nvalue and qualityat thislower endof thescale are somewhat emperedbythe ncreased lientelebiddingforhousing.This situationhas made these low qualityareas extremely rofitable orabsentee land-lords and encourages their continued exis-tence.The tipping-pointmechanism is said tooperate in areas where minority roups aremoving ntowhiteneighborhoods.Wolf hasdescribed the tippingpoint as a thresholdwhich is reached as the proportionof mi-noritygrouppersons n an area exceeds thelimits of its tolerancefor interracial iving,and the whitesmove out.26Althoughrecog-nizing hat ucha thresholdxists,most schol-ars believe that its level varies widely fromcommunityo community,nd even withincommunity. he importance f thisconcept oneighborhood ecline is that t implies socialand economicdowngrading,fnotphysicalde-terioration, s a result of intra-urbanmi-gration. This is in part due to the lowerbuyingpowerof thenewlyarrivedresidents,whichaffects he retailstructure f the area.

25 Hoover and Vernon, op. cit., footnote21.26 Wolf, op. cit., footnote 24.

Stresson neighborhoodnstitutions,ncludingschools and churches,follows too fromtheinvasion process. Wolf has also noted thatthis process is influencedby a self-fulfillingprophecywhereby residents,believing thatminority roupinvasion s imminent, ill actso as to encouragethis transition,nd make itsucceed by movingout. These observationsimplythat decline also has a strongspatialdimension.This expansionprocess has beenrecognizedfor decades but has been studiedsystematicallynly recently.

SPATIAL PROCESS APPROACHAlthough veremphasizinghe physicalfac-tors associated with the expansion of lowquality housing,Wright analyzed what hecalled sinking lumswithgreat perception:27Usuallythere s nota sharp dividing inebetweenareas ofblight nd healthy ections.Blighthas atendency o spread out on all sides like everwideningripples caused by a pebble, with anindeterminate area at the outer edge. . .. Theimportantointto keep in mindhere s thetend-encyofblight o spreadand bring djacentareaswithin he affected egion.Expanding areas of substandardhousing

have been attributed o an excessiverate ofcity growth.Emphasizingthe organicnatureof the city, aarinensaid that n manycases,"theovergrown ity s like the flat ichenonthe Northern liff,whereexpansionoutwardcauses withering f the center."28He urgedmoreflexibilitynd decentralizationf activi-ties to overcomethis weakness. Given thatolder, nexpensive ousing n the center fthecityhas always attractedforeignmmigrants,rural to urban migrants,and low incomeintra-urbanmigrants,t is obvious that thereis continuous pressure for more low costhousing. Lateralmovements not as commonas outwardexpansion s a resultof thispres-sure formore housing. Other close-in resi-dentialareas withsimilarhousingare alreadyoccupied by otherminority roups and out-ward moves are frequently he only choice.What Rose has describedas a reversewedgewith the apex penetrating utwardfromthecenterand the base toward the city center

27 H. K. Wright,Sinking lums," urveyGraphic,Vol. 22 (1933), pp. 417-19.28 E. Saarinen,The City (Cambridge:The Mas-sachusettsnstitute f Technology ress,1943).

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1971 INNER CITY 77conceptualizesthisgrowthprocess. Further-more, literature on intra-urbanmigrationsuggeststhat moves usually remain in onesector.29This follows fromthe recognitionthat most moves are shortand are usuallymade into areas the mover is familiarwithon thebasis ofhis actionspace. Personsof agivensocioeconomicclass are movingat ap-proximately he same rates, freeinghomesfromthe centeroutward. In short,moversapparentlyfollowmigration treams n rela-tivelyuniform ocioeconomicsectors.Morrill's work in the Seattle ghetto sug-gests that expansion can be reduced to aspatial diffusionprocess, followingwhat isgenerally nown s the neighborhood ffect.30Morrillused a diffusion heory conceptualframeworko studythe spread of the ghetto,and his findings are relevant to the moregeneralproblemof blightedhousing,to theextentthat it exhibitsthe same tendencies.Morrill traced the originof the ghettoandforces that perpetuated it, including theprocessof expansion, n Seattle, Washington,for the period 1940-1960. The spread of theghetto was treated as a spatial diffusionprocess in which Negro migrantsgraduallypenetrated surroundingwhite areas. "Theghetto s almostalways in a zone peripheralto thecentralbusiness district, ftencontain-ing formerlyleganthousesintermingled ithcommercial nd light industrialuses."31 Atleast four separate and interactingforcesmaintain his segregatedghetto ystem:prej-udice of whites against minoritygroups,discriminationy the real estate ndustryndassociated financial institutions, egal andgovernmentbarriers,and economic forcessuch as the notion of the slumlord'sdilemma.32

29 J. S. Adams,"DirectionalBias in Intra-UrbanMigration,"conomicGeography, ol. 45 (1969),pp. 302-23.30 R. L. Morrill,The NegroGhetto:Alternativesand Consequences,"GeographicalReview,Vol. 55(1965), p. 363; and R. L. Morrill, Wavesof SpatialDiffusion,"Journalof Regional Science, Vol. 8(1968), pp. 1-18.31 Morrill1965), op. cit., footnote 0, p. 342.32 The slumlord'silemma often alled theprison-er's dilemma) is discussed in E. Smolensky, .Becker, nd H. Molotch, The Prisoner's ilemmaand GhettoExpansion,"Land Economics,Vol. 44(1968), pp. 419-30.

The role of proximitywas critical to theexpansionprocess, which was reduced to asystem f replacing passive white "deserters"with active Negro migrants. A reduction ngrowth or spread would require weakeningof the distinction etween groups (Negroesand whites in this case), but this does notoccur because the process of transition sinevitableonce a certain number of Negroesmove into a neighborhood. This evacuation-replacementprocess continues until a blockis solidly transformed rom white to Negroresidence.Wolperthas referred o thisprocessas theexpanding contagionof dilapidation, recog-nizing that run-down neighborhood con-ditionshave a negative mpact on surroundingproperties.33Economists call this an exter-nalityeffect.34t has also been referred o asGresham'sLaw of Land Use.35 Given suchexternalities,ittle ncentive xistsfor mprov-ing properties n declining neighborhoods shouse values are diminishedby neighboringproperties.Fragmentation f ownership andthe nature of sequential bargaining,both ofwhich work against redevelopmentby theprivate sector, encourage further decline.Government intervention to reverse thisprocess s apparently ecessary, s the privatesector can not deal with it effectively.36

VARIABLES ASSOCIATED WITH HOUSINGQUALITY DECLINEThe importance f criticalvariablesto theprocess ofhousing decline has received wideattention. Knos found significantrelation-ships between six independentvariables and

substandardhousingat block and tract evels33J. Wolpert and D. Zillman,"The SequentialExpansion f a DecisonModel in a SpatialContext,"Environmentnd Planning,Vol. 1 (1969), pp. 91-104.34H. 0. Nourse,RegionalEconomics New York:McGraw-Hill, 968), pp. 230-36.3 Guiding MetropolitanGrowth, (New York:CommitteeorEconomicDevelopment,960), p. 20.36 Nourse, op. cit., footnote 4, p. 235; similarproblems associatedwith retail structure re dis-cussed in B. J.L. Berry, ommercial tructure nd

Commercial light, esearch aper No. 85 (Chicago:University f Chicago Departmentof Geography,1963); and H. M. Rose, "The Structure f RetailTrade in a Racially Changing Trade Area,"GeographicalAnalysis, ol. 2 (1970), pp. 135-48.

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78 TRUMAN A. HARTSHORN Marchin Kansas City.37 Substandard ousinghadstrongpositive relationshipswith percentageof dwelling units overcrowded and percent-age of dwelling units built before1920, andstrong negative correlations with medianfamily ncome,median school yearcompleted,occupational ndex, and percentageof dwell-ing units owner occupied.Case used stepwise regression nalysis inattempting o design a model which wouldpredict the incidence of blight n Californiacitieswitha populationof 10,000or morein1960.38 He used substandard nd dilapidatedhousing (as defined in the 1950 and 1960Censuses of Housing) as the dependentvari-able, and selected characteristicsf the areasbeing studied as independent variables.The major weakness of association-typestudies is that they are not process orientedand thus do not make systematicspatial-temporal hanges explicit. This deficiency sparticularly riticalwhen dealing with exist-ing residentialneighborhoods, n which de-mands are continually changing due tochanging living standards, technology,andthe mobility of both people and establish-mentsresulting rom hese changingrelation-ships. EMPIRICAL ANALYSISThe present study represents n attemptto elicitthe basic dimensions f neighborhoodresidential structuren areas with consider-able substandard housing and to overcomethe criticisms eveled above by tracing,asaccurately s existing ata allow, the changesin these areas over a twentyyear period.39

37D. S. Knos, "Substandard Housing in KansasCity, Missouri," unpublished doctoral dissertation,University of Iowa, 1959.38F. E. Case, "Prediction of the Incidence ofUrban Residential Blight," Papers and ProceedingsoftheRegionalScienceAssociation, ol. 11 (1963),pp. 211-16.39Data were gathered for this set of variables for1940 and 1950. Blocks were screened on the basis ofthe incidence of substandard housing in at least oneof these observation periods. The same blocks wereexamined forboth 1940 and 1950. In addition, datawere gathered for substandard housing only in 1960for use in the latter part of the analysis dealingwith decennial changes in housing quality. Datawere obtained from Census materials, with the ex-ception of the distance and topography measures,which were determined from large scale city maps;Bureau of the Census, "Characteristics of Housing by

CEDARRAPIDSStudy rea - !

- .r . - ---

0 4000 feet

CARTOGRAPHYABORATORY,EPT.OF GEOG.,GEORGIA TATEUNIVERSITY

FIG. 1. The study rea nrelationo thecity imitsof CedarRapids n1950.The study rea is the innercityof CedarRapids, owa, consistingf 546 blockscon-taining ubstandardousingn 1940, 950, r1960 Fig. 1) 40 These blocksform nearlyBlocks: 1940, Cedar Rapids, Iowa," Table 3, inCensus of Housing (Washington: Government Print-ing Office, 1941), pp. 6-17; Bureau of the Census,"Characteristics of Housing for Block Areas, ByBlocks: 1950, Cedar Rapids, Iowa," Table 3, inCensus of Housing (Washington: GovernmentPrint-ing Office, 1951), pp. 4-15; and Bureau of theCensus, "Characteristicsof Housing Units, By Blocks:1960, Cedar Rapids, Iowa," Table 2, in Census ofHousing (Washington: Government Printing Office,1961), pp. 1-15.

40 The criteria most useful in defining ow qualityhousing have received considerable attention. Censusdefinitions were employed here. The terms lowquality and substandard housing are used inter-changeably. A general discussion of the use ofcensus data on housing quality can be found in M.Anderson,he FederalBulldozer,A CriticalAnalysisof Urban Renewal, 1949-1962 (Cambridge: Mas-sachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1964), pp.214-15; Bureau of the Census, Measuring the Qualityof Housing:An Appraisal of Census Statistics ndMethods, Working Paper No. 25 (Washington: Gov-

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1971 INNER CITY 79TABLE 1.-LIST OF VARIABLES EMPLOYED IN THECEDAR RAPIDS ANALYSISHEVIND - Distance fromHeavy IndustryDISCBD - Distance fromCBDMULHOU - Distance fromMultiple HousingMONRNT - Monthly RentlIOUVAL - Average Value of Dwelling UnitTOPOGR - TopographyOWNOCC - Percent Owner OccupiedRNTOCC - Percent Renter OccupiedVACANT - Percent VacantDENSTY - Density of Housing UnitsDLAPTD - Percent DilapidatedA30-39 - Percent Constructed 1930-1939A20-30 - Percent Constructed 1920-1929A00-19 - Percent Constructed 1900-1919ABEF99 - PercentConstructed1899 or BeforeSNDHOU - Percent Sound Dwelling UnitsNHOS40 - Percent Constructed 1940-1950(Only for 1950)a The variables chosen for this study are expressed asaverages, distances,or ratios in order to eliminate the possi-hility that the analysismight be influencedby variationsinthe size of city blocks. This procedure also facilitatescross-sectional and temporal comparisonsby minimizingthe effectof small changes in the absolute quantityof a phenomenonin a unit area.Source: compiled l)y author.

contiguous area including approximatelyseventy-five ercent of Cedar Rapids asdefinedby the 1950 city imits. Fringeareasof the citywere not included; the incidenceof low quality housing there is minimal,asthis rea was developedrecently.To identifythe residential tructure f the studyarea, Iused seventeen variables which appearedrelevant o spatial variation n housingchar-acteristics, responsive to housing qualitychanges, and were available for both 1940and 1950 (Table 1) 41ernment Printing Office, 1967 ); T. A. Hartshorn,"Urban Residential Blight: The Structure andChange of Substandard Housing in Cedar Rapids,Iowa, 1940-1960", unpublished doctoral dissertation,Universityof Iowa, 1968; A. Twichell, "Measuringthe Quality of Housing in Planning for Redevelop-ment," in C. Woodbury, ed., Urban Redevelopment,Problems and Practices (Chicago: University ofChicago Press, 1953); American Public Health As-sociation,An AppraisalMethod forMeasuringtheQuality fHousing:A Yardstick orHealthOfficers,HousingOfficialsnd Planners, art1, 1945,Part2,1946, Part 3, 1950 (New York: American PublicHealth Association); and B. S. Wellar, "A Programfor Selection and Acquisition of Housing-Environ-ment Data," unpublished doctoral dissertation,NorthwesternUniversity,1969.

41 Only sixteen variables were gathered for 1940,as the seventeenthrefersto housing constructedinthe 1940-1950 period.

TABLE 2.-RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURE OF CEDAR RAPIDSFOR 1940 AND 1950

Percent of Percent oftotal commonFactors Eigenvalues variance' variance1. Housing Age1940 4.33 27.1 47.31950 4.61 27.1 49.82. Housing Quality1940 3.43 21.4 37.51950 2.97 17.5 32.13. Housing Occupance1940 1.39 8.7 15.21950 1.68 9.8 18.1Total1940 9.15b 57.2 1001950 9.26b 54.4 100

Total variance = M = 17, where M - number of variables.Commnion variance.Source: calculated by author.

Inner City Residential StructureThese variables were subjected to a princi-pal components nalysisin order to identifythesignificantimensions fresidential truc-ture.42 Three components,which togetheraccounted forslightly ess than sixtypercentof the variancein both 1940 and 1950, wereisolated (Table 2). The componentswere

labeled, on thebasis of the highest omponentloadings, as Housing Age, Housing Quality,and ResidentialOccupancy (Table 3).The scale of variationrepresentedby theHousing Age component suggests a con-tinuumat the one end of which are blocks(high positive scores) with relatively newowner occupied homes some distance fromthe centralbusiness district n highergroundwithsuperior menities. At the otherend areblocks (high negative scores) with olderhousing, higher renter occupancy, greaterpopulationdensities, nd closer to the centralbusinessdistrict.These characteristicsepre-senta concentric ingvariationforboth 1940and 1950,with the negative scores closer inand the positivescores toward the periphery(Figs. 2 and 3). It is reasonable to equatethis dimension with the family structure42 The usefulness of principal components analysisin examination of the internal structure of the cityis widely known; B. J. L. Berry and F. E. Horton,

Geographic erspectivesn UrbanSystems Engle-wood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1970), pp. 150-68. Forprincipal components analysis, see H. H. Harmon,Modern Factor Analysis (Chicago: The Universityof Chicago Press, 1967).

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80 TRUMANA. HARTSHORN March

CedarRapids FACTOR 11940

Z a e> w> b a A wS}. ... ...

:::::::::::::::::::.:.. > eB. . . . . .. .] . . . . . . .ntinclde [-1

X. 20001

FIG. 2. Factor 1 in 1940 shows a concentricring arrangement n termsof age and occupancy character-istics.

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1971 INNER CITY 81

CedarRapids FACTOR 11950

-0.999+0.999fl

0 - Bloc0 not ncluded

FIG. 3. Factor 1 in 1950 shows a concentricring arrangement n terms of age and occupancy character-istics.

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82 TRUMANA. HARTSHORN MarchTABLE 3.-ROTATED FACTOR LOADING MATRIX FOR CEDAR RAPIDSa

CommunalityFactor 1 Factor 2 Factor 3 h2Variable 1940 1950 1940 1950 1940 1950 1940 1950

MONRNT .65 .67 .59 -.34 .782 .588HEVIND .56 .58 .408 .424DISCBD .45 .84 .314 .741MULHOU .76 .77 .735 .764HOUVAL .38 .61 .60 -.35 .542 .549TOPOGR .66 .75 .567 .582OWNOCC .79 .77 .29 .77 .756 .694RNTOCC .64 -.52 .12 -.60 .477 .657VACANT .55 -.53 .328 .289DENSTY .54 .58 -.45 -.35 .504 .475DLAPTD -.87 -.84 .796 .803A30-39 .67 .73 .556 .542A29-29 .68 .58 .485 .402AOO-19 .60 .35 .452 .178ABEF99 -.68 -.52 .658 .487SNDHOU .88 .84 .786 .824NHOS40 .226

t Factor loadings are the result of varimax rotation. To facilitate interpretation, only those loadings .50 are indicatedexcept where lower loadings were included for comparability between 1940 and 1950 figures.Source: calculated by author.

and/orurbanization imensionnoted in othersocial area analysis studies.The second componentaccounts for vari-ance in residential tructure elated to Hous-ing Quality; blocks with high positive com-ponent loadings have predominantly oundhousing,whereas blocks with high negativeloadingshave large quantities of low qualityhousing. High residential values and rentfigures re associated with the betterqualityresidential reas, whereasthenegativeblocksshow lowervalue and rentfigures s well ashigher densityconditions. This componentdoes not suggestthat lower quality housingis confinedto the center of the city, butrather, hat t is dispersed n a multiplenucleiarrangement Figs. 4 and 5). Lower qualityhousing is located at the heart of eachnucleus, with a grading upward in housingquality away from hat center. Many blocksin an intermediate ategory n 1940 were inthe lowestquality categoryby 1950, whereasfewerblocks appeared in the highest com-ponentscorecategoryn 1940 and 1950, sug-gesting an overall improvementn housingconditions. The correlationcoefficientbe-tween the 1940 and 1950 distributions n thehousingquality componentwas .65, whereasthe correlation orthe two periods with thehousing age componentwas .86, suggestingthat indeed there s less correspondence e-

tween the blocks loading stronglyon thesecond componentn the two periodsthanisthe case withthe first omponent.These observationssuggest a number ofcomparisonswiththefindings fothers. irst,boththechanging patialpatternsnoted hereand thosedescribedby Morrillmay be seenas underlying a spatial diffusionprocess.Second, the ethnic segregation dimensionnotedby Berry nd Murdie is similarto thiscomponent. A direct relationship betweenthese two dimensions s not valid, however,as there is no appreciable nonwhite; opu-lation in Cedar Rapids.Componentthreeaccounts forvariance inneighborhoodstructurerelated to type ofresidential ccupancy. n general, hepolarityof thiscomponent s renterversusowneroc-cupancy,withrenter-typelocks also havinghighervacancyrates. This component s notso stable as the others, s is indicatedby thechange of signs on the component oadings.It has an axial arrangementwith sectorsgrading outward into areas with greaterquantitiesof owner occupied housing (Figs.6 and 7). Expansionovertime s also sectoralalong a northeast/southwestxiswhich strad-dles the main artery f the city. These pat-terns,plus the role of occupancy status incomponent hree, uggest a relatively emotesimilarityo the socioeconomic tatus dimen-

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1971 INNER CITY 85

CedarRapids FACTOR 31940

..4XX.... ....;\............. .........:s..., . s1::: ... a _...

0 2000 Blockonclu0e

FIG. 6. Factor 3 in 1940 suggests sectoral rrangemnentelated to socioeconomic tatus.

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86 TRiUMAN. HARTSHORN March

CedarRapids FACTOR 3

[EEEEE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.....\...I l L u~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~..NO\03 1 X *ICOO\~~~~~X? 200G Block otncluded.......mF-EET~~ ~~~~~~......

FIG. 7. actor 3 n 1950ggests asectoralarrangemnt r elaed to soioeconomc status

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1971 INNER CrIY 87sion identified y social area analysis. Givena wider range of data on education levels,occupations,and income by block, this re-lationshipmightbe more apparent.

Neighborhood ypologyThe three relatively ndependent dimen-sions determined by principal componentsanalysis were superimposedon one anotherin order ounderstandmore fully he residen-tial structure f Cedar Rapids. Blocks wereclassified s typeson the basis of the relativeimportance of the components. The studyarea was organized nto subareas of roughlyequivalentsocioeconomic status, using thesethree components n combination.To de-termine he relationships etween sound anddeterioratedhousing and the other dimen-sions of neighborhood tructure, locks werefirst combined on a two-way basis cor-responding to the urbanization (Factor 1)and economic status (Factor 3) components(Fig. 8). Each of the two indices wasdividedby three ntervals etermined y therespectivemeans and standard deviations ofthe componentswith the exception of thethird (Factor 2), which was split into twocategories orresponding o sound and dilapi-dated housing. This latterhousing qualitycomponent was divided in two ways todetermine hemosteffectiveway of separat-ing high and low quality residential areas.First, blocks with greater amounts of sub-standardhousingthan the mean (for 1940,fortypercent) were classified as high, andthose below themean, ow. The secondcate-gorizationwas undertakenusing the meansof the rotated factor scores for this com-ponent. Both yielded substantially he sameresults nd the first echnique was adopted.When analyzing the study area withoutdistinguishing etweenblocks withhigh andlow indices of housing quality, most of theblockswere assignedto the middle range ofthe social rank ndexbased on Factor 3 andto the low category f the urbanization calebased on Factor1 (Fig. 8). Sixty-two ercentoftheblocksfellwithin helow categoriesofthe urbanization cale and seventy-five er-cent in themiddle ranges of the social rankscale in 1940,whereassixty-nine ercentandforty-fiveercent fthe blocks were similarlyaligned n 19,50.This suggeststhatthe study

1940 NEIGHBORHOOD REASAS TYPESSOCIAL ANKNDEX

AvecragC Total714113Z 230< 17 49 6 62

Z Low 47 6 64j5 51 6 6275

Total 7378. h ...........

1950NEIGHBORHOODREASAS TYPESSOCIAL ANKNDEX

.. AvcragC - TotalZ ; i:.......0.;;t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~434

1060 1

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88 TRUMANA. HARTSHORN Marchtween the sound and dilapidated blocks wasrevealed. The low quality housing blockswere seemingly ainingfasterthan he soundblocks on the social rank scale, but forun-known reasons.

Even though the 1940 figuresdid not de-tect a difference etween the high and lowquality blocks, spatially there was a markedcontrast (Fig. 9). The substandardblockswith a low urbanization ndex and a middlesocial index rank were in the centerof thecity, primarily n the east side of the riveradjacent to the centralbusiness district.Thenext highercategories,with average urban-ization and middle social rank,were areas onthemarginsof the more downgraded blocksand further rom he centralbusinessdistrict,suggesting n improvementn socioeconomicstatus toward the outer limitsof the studyarea. Striking contraststo these patternswere foundin 1950 (Fig. 10). Since higherpercentages of blocks were presentin 1950withrespect to low urbanization nd middlenorm social rank index cells, especially inthe case of low quality housing blocks, adecline in relative standing of these blocksover the ten year interval s suggested. Thisis portrayedby adding categories represent-ing low urbanization nd low social rank tothe categories representing average socialrank and low urbanization (Fig. 10). Theblocksfalling nto these low categoriesweresubstantially he same as those with highersocioeconomic haracteristicsn 1940 forbothhigh and low quality housing. Thus theoverall social and economicdeclinehas beenmost accelerated n the citycenter reas withconsiderablequantities of low quality hous-ing.Althoughapproximately ne-fourth f theresidential rea is excluded from hisanalysis,the centralportionof Cedar Rapids is de-graded socially, economically, nd physicallyto a degree not anticipated. The declineand intensification f housing mediocrity sdemonstratedby this typology. Continuedoutward expansion of substandardhousingseems inevitablegiven the run-downnatureof the innercity.

Neighborhood hangeIn orderto specify he relationship etweenchanges in housing quality and residential

characteristics, dependentvariablewas con-structedto detect decennial changes. Thedependentvariable forthe 1940 analysis wasthe increase in percentage of dilapidatedhousingbetween 1940 and 1950 divided bythe percentageof sound housing n 1940.The original matrixof variables was thenrelated to thisdependentvariable in a mul-tiple stepwiseregression nalysis.43The de-gree, f associationbetween the independentvariables for 1940 and subsequentchangesinhousing over a ten year period was quiteweak, and the analytical procedure wasmodified,after findingonly slightlybetterresultsforthe 1950 data. In 1940,273 of the546 studyblockshad negativevalues on thedependent variable, seventy-onewere as-signedzeros,and 202 had positivevalues. In1950, 364 blocks had negative values, fifty-seven had zeros and 125 were positive. Thenegative numbers were assigned to blockswitha decrease in low qualityhousing or anincrease in the proportion of high qualityunits. Zero numberswere assignedto blockswithno changein theproportion fhighandlow qualityhousing, nd positive numbers oblocks with an increase in the proportion flow quality. Roughly half or more of theblocks showed increases in housing qualityin both periods.The blocks showing no change were elim-inated,and separateanalyses were performedon the blocks showingan incrementn sub-standardhousing nd on those blocksshowingdecreases. A discriminantunction f thetwochangegroupswas exploredand a test of thesignificance of this twofold classification,using the seventeenoriginalvariables,foundit to be significant t the .05 level in bothstudy periods (Table 4) . For the 1940-1950 period 243 (eighty-sixpercent) of the282 blocks showing ncreases in low quality

43 Stepwise regression nalysiswas used to insertinto the equation at each step *thatligible variablewhichhad the highestpartial correlation ith thedependent variable, given that all the previouslyselected variableswere in the equation. The mini-mum F-level for a variable to be retained n theregression quation was set at .005.44A generaldescription f the application f dis-criminant nalysis for group classification an befound n W. W. Cooley and P. R. Lohnes, Multi-variate Statistics or the BehavioralSciences (NewYork: JohnWileyand Sons, 1962).

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1971 INNER CITY 89

STRUCTURAL TYPOLOGYCedar Rapids 1940

, ........~~~~~~~...

........._

..........................

SUBSTANDARD HOUSINGAVG. URBANIZATION /AVG. SOCIAL RANKLOW URBANIZATION0 2000 AVG. SOCIAL RANK

F E ET SOUND HOUSINGLOW URBANIZA ION [T]AVG. SOCIAL RANKAVG. URBANIZATION fAVG. SOCIAL RANK L

FIG. 9. Structuralypology, 940; the improvementn socioeconomic tatus is apparentwhen theaverageurbanizationnd middle social rankblocks are shown n relation o those of lowerstatus.

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90 TiwI MAN A. -1AHT1'S1101N Mardch

STRUCTURAL TYPOLOGYCedar Rapids 1950

.. . . . LOW URBANIZATION0 \ _ _ LOWG SOCIAL RANK000 ~~~~SOUBTNDARHOUSINGLOW URBANIZATION_FEET _ LOW SOCIAL RANK

LOW URBANIZATION mLOW URBANIZATIONAVG. SOCIAL RANKAVG. URBANIZATION t ct ctAVG. SOCIAL RANK 1

Fic;. 10. StrulcturllaYPOlOgY,950; as in 1940 t11iSnapl .stilgests tle dlown1gradedlaturle f tlle centralcity.

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1971 INNER CITY 91TABLE 4.-HOUSING QUALITY CHANGE DISCRITNINANT

FUNCTION F-RATIOSaInsignificantVariable F-Ratio variables

1940-1950Change n HousingQualitySNDHOU 37.41 HEVINDDLAPTD 29.86 RNTOCCOWNOCC 6.72 MULHOUDISCBD 5.47 HOUVALVACANT 3.85 TOPOGRRNTOCCDENSTYOLDER HOU

1950-1960Change nHousingQualitySNDHOU 30.19 HEVINDDLAPTD 29.66 DISCBDHOUVAL 28.18 TOPOGRMONRNT 16.20 DENSTYAOO-19 10.45 A30-40MULHOU 10.18 NHOS40RNTOCC 7.05 ABEF99VACANT 4.75 A20-29OWNOCC 4.14

a Based on two groups; ncreases n low quality housing andincreases n high quality housing. Significance determined tthe .05 level. 3.84 is the tabled critical value with 1 and 485degreesof freedom.Source: calculatedby author.

housingwere correctly llocated on the basisof their ocioeconomic haracteristicsnd 105(eighty-five ercent) of the 124 blocks inthe 1950-1960 period were correctlydenti-fied. This suggests that high standards ofpredictive eliabilitywithrespect to increasesin substandardhousing can be achieved withlimiteddata on the socioeconomicstructureof urban areas.Closer analysis of the variables most sig-nificant o the discriminant unction elativeto increases n substandardhousing ndicatesthat occupancystatusindices, distance fromthe centralbusiness district, nd quantitiesofmoderately ld housingweremostreliable,according oan F test Table 5). The locationvariables, density, and indicators of thenewest nd oldesthousing acked significance.A somewhat lower level of reliabilitywasnoted nthe1940-19,50nd 1950-1960periodsforblocksshowingdecreases n thequantitiesof substandard ousing;239 (sixty-three er-cent) of 363 blocks were correctly lassifiedin the first eriod, and 126 (sixty-eight er-cent) of the 185 blocks in the second. Thissuggests hat mprovementsnhousingqualitystock are the result of a moreheterogeneous

TABLE 5.-VARIABLES ASSOCIATED WITH HOUSINGCHANGE BASED ON THE DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION1940-1950 1950-1960

Increases in Substandard HousingMost Sensitive(+)aSNDHOU (+) SNDHOU(+) DENSTY (-) OLDEST HOUSINGOCCUPSTATUS (?) DENSTY(-) DISCBD OCCUP STATUS(-) HEVIND (?) DISCBDLeast Sensitive

(+) HOUVAL & (?) HOUVALMONRNT(-) DLAPTD (?) DLAPTD(?) NEWEST (?) HEVINDHOUSING(?) OWNOCC (-) OWNOCC(+) RNTOCC (?) RNTOCC(?) VACANT (?) VACANTIncreases n Sound Housing

Most Sensitive(-) DENSTY (-) DENSTY(+) OLDER (?) OLDER HOUSINGHOUSING(?) OWNOCC (+) DILAPTD

Least Sensitive(+) SNDHOU (+) SNDHOU(+) HOUVAL (+) HOUVAL(+) DISCBD

a The directionof relationship s indicated by (+) or (-).Source: compiled by author.

group of factors hanare declines. With thisreasonable assurance that the two separategroups were significantly ifferent, he re-lationshipbetween blocks in each of thesegroupsand the dependent variable,based ondecennial changes, was estimated by step-wise multiple regression nalysis.

Increases in Substandard HousingFor blocks experiencing ncreases in lowquality housing a multiple of R of .59, wasobtained forthe 1940-1950 period, and thenull hypothesis f no autocorrelateddisturb-ances was accepted.45 The proportion of45 Since one has to be careful to guard againstautocorrelation among the variables that might be

indicators of the same variation, caution was exer-cised in interpreting esults. When such disturbancesare present in a problem involving east squares esti-mation, unbiased estimators re obtained, but seriousunderestimates of the sampling variance are likely,

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92 TRUMANA. HARTSHORN MarchTABLE 6.-INCREASE IN SUBSTANDARD HOUSING, BASED

ON STEPWISE MULTIPLE REGRESSIONPartialRegression Standard regressionVariablea coefficient error coefficient

1940-1950 ncreaseRelated o 1940 VariablesSNDHOU -3.454 1.453 -0.173DENSTY 0.000 0.000 0.104HEVIND -0.002 0.001 -0.147OWNOCC 0.837 0.375 0.163MULHOU 0.001 0.001 0.093A20-29 0.292 1.117 0.019DISCBD 0.001 0.001 0.099RNTOCC 0.833 0.376 0.161VACANT 0.819 0.373 0.160A30-39 2.437 1.897 0.094A00-19 1.491 1.167 0.094ABEF99 1.178 1.126 0.077HOUVAL -0.001 0.000 -0.050TOPOGR 0.002 0.004 0.038MONRNT 0.001 0.000 0.027DLAPTD -0.003 0.013 -0.018Variables ropped:NONE

1950-1960 ncreaseRelated o1950VariablesSNDHOU 1.674 3.844 0.042AOO-19 5.202 2.245 0.220DENSTY 0.000 0.000 0.351DISCBD -0.013 0.004 -0.268MONRNT 0.000 0.001 0.069VACANT 0.045 0.045 0.097NHOS40 -4.051 1.921 -0.201A30-39 1.289 1.053 0.118TOPOGR 0.020 0.023 0.086MULHOU -0.079 0.067 -0.115ABEF99 -1.743 2.141 -0.079A20-29 1.603 3.336 0.047RNTOCC -0.015 0.034 -0.043DLAPTD 1.723 3.838 0.044HOUVAL 0.000 0.000 0.034OWNOCC -0.003 0.017 -0.017HEVIND -0.009 0.062 -0.014Variables ropped: NONEa Variables are listed in order of inclusion in regressionequation.Source: calculated by author.

sound housingwas the most criticalvariablein accountingforan increase in substandardhousing (Table 6), but the positiverelation-ship indicatedthat,otherthingsbeing equal,the greaterthe number of sound units (inrelation o dilapidatedunits), the highertheprobability f change fromsound to dilapi-whichmeans the predictions re inefficient. heDurbin-Watson est statistic d) was used to testfor thepresence f such autocorrelatedisturbances.For a discussion f the Durbin-Watsontatistic eeJ. Johnston, conometricMethods (New York:McGraw-Hill, 963), p. 192.

dated condition.Although confusing t firstglance, this indicates that substandardhous-ing over the ten year period has expandedspatiallyby affecting locks formerly f pre-dominantlyound housing and not simplybyintensifyingn blocks already downgraded,whichsuggestsa spatial diffusion rocess.The density-of-dwelling-unitsariable wasrelated positively o the change variable, in-dicating that crowding is detrimentaltohousing quality. The highest negative re-lationship,with the distance-from-heavy-in-dustrial-areas ariable, ndicatesthe expectednegative externalityf industrial and use onhousing. The positiverelationshipwith owneroccupance reflects the under-maintenancewhich accompanies a decliningmarket forhousing. Even the owner occupied units areapparentlybecoming more dilapidated be-cause a neglect of repairs is accompanyingobsolescence and increasing age.The variables which appear most insensi-tive to quality declines are monthly rent,average value, proportion f housingalreadydilapidated,and newest housing (Table 6).The weak relationshipsmaybe due in parttodata deficiencies, ut theymay also indicatethathousingdoes not necessarilydecline invalue as its quality declines. As a residencefiltersdown to lower income groups,whichusually spend a higher proportionof theirbudget on housing,demand increases due tothe larger number of persons bidding forgiven residences, keeping the price high.Furthermore,he proportionof housing al-readyof low qualityseems to be a relativelyweak force n increasing he quantity fpoorhousing,due in part to the heterogeneityfhousing n many blocks,and to the factthatobsolescence and housing preferencesvaryfrom familyto family. Quality decline indecliningneighborhoods lso is arrestedbycode enforcementnd by removal of struc-tures, although there is little evidence thatthisactuallyoccursmorefrequentlyn poorerneighborhoods.Similarresultswere obtained for19,50-1960blocks showing qualitydecline in relationtothe 1950 variables, although fewer blockswere involved (125, as compared with 202in 1940). The multipleR was .57, withnoserious autocorrelateddisturbances. Soundhousing was the major variable associated

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1971 INNER CITY 93HOUSING CHANGE

1950-1960Cedar Rapids

o xooo ~~~INUBlSTlAND)ARD HOUSING

FIG. 11. Increases n substandard ousing, 940-1950.withchange, being positively orrelatedwithdecline, indicatingthat increasing quantitiesof low quality housing were accruing to thehigher, not lower quality blocks. Housingconstructed rior to 1919 was related posi-tively o the dependentvariable, as was grosshousingdensity, howing hat age and densityare negative factors. Distance from he cen-tral business district oaded positively, m-phasizingthatdecline increases farther romthe citycenter. Occupancy statuswas quitesignificant,ut thesignson renter ccupancyand owneroccupancy witched n comparisonwith the!previous decade, makingthem un-reliable ndicators.As in 1940, the dependentvariableappeared insensitive o average rentand value figures.A poor relationshipwiththe distance-from-heavy-industryariable in-dicated thatdecline is occurringnearernon-residentialand but at greaterdistancesfromthe central usiness district.Substantially hesame blockswere changing n 1940-1950 and1950-1960 (Figs. 11 and 12); a switchfromownerto renter ccupancy of these blocks isindicated by the regression analysis andsample means.

HOUSING CHANGECedar Rapids 1940 1950

BLIOCKRS SHO(WING, INC:REASE-SCoy= ~~~~INUBlSTAND)ARD) HOU)SINGi

FIG. 12. Increases in substandard housing, 1950-1960.In 1940 themean of the renteroccupancyvariable for the entire study area and themean based on blocks showingincreases inlow quality housing were the same (forty-sevenpercent). However,for1950 the entirestudy area mean of thirty-six ercent (adecline from 1940) is less than the mean(forty-onepercent) based on increases insubstandardhousing.The difference etweenthese two 1950 means is significant,s thenull hypothesiswas rejected at the fiveper-cent level. Thus the amount of tenantoc-cupancy differsn 1950 between the originalstudy rea and thearea with ncreases n lowquality housing even withan overall declinein renter ccupancy; blocks withincreases nlow quality housinghave significantlymoretenant ccupants,unlike the situation n 1940.This change probably reflectsthe filtering-down process.

Tipping-point.The determinationf a critical evel abovewhich low quality housingtends to increaseunchecked would give additional nsight ntoconditions ssociated with tsexpansion.Thislevel, or tipping-point,would be the pro-

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94 TRUMANA. HARTSHORN Marchportion of loxv quality housing most oftenassociated with continuedexpansionand/orintensification,ssumingotherconditionsre-mained the same.The original study area had a mean offortypercent dilapidated housing by blockin 1940 and thirty ercent n 1950, but theblocks with an increase in substandardhousinghad much lowerpercentages thirtyand twentypercentfor 1940 and 1950, re-spectively). These latter figuresare inter-preted as tipping-points r thresholdsforincreased substandard housing in CedarRapids. These thresholdfiguresare signifi-cantly affectedby the base percentage ofsubstandardhousing;given a largerpercent-age of substandardhousing,a highervaluewould be needed in order to maintain theexpansion process. The tipping-point issomewhat lower than the mean percentageof substandardhousing for the entirestudyarea in both periods. The tipping-pointunssixty o seventypercent of the overallmean,which shows that the critical levels for ex-pansion are loxver han mightbe expected.Althoughmore testingis needed in otherurban areas, in Cedar Rapids continued n-creases n substandardhousing re apparentlyassociated wvithelativelyow initialpropor-tions of loxvquality housing, mplyingthatfarmore of the city s susceptibleto declinethan is currently ecognized, and that in-creasesare foundnotin theworsebut betterblocks, relatively peaking. It is implicit fnot explicit that these figures indicate aspatial growthprocess.

Increases in Sound HousingBlocks withincreases in the proportion fsoundhousingmight lso be expectedtohavehigh initialproportions f sound housing asxvell s highvalue housing,but thiswas notthe case (Table 7). Instead, variablesrepre-sentinghousing densities,the proportion fowneroccupiedunits, nd proportion folderhousing were most closely associated withimprovementsn housingquality. A negativerelationshipwitheach of thesevariablessug-gests that improvements re occurringin

lowverdensity,renteroccupied, older resi-clential areas. Apparently the filter-downprocess is being reversedby private sectorrenewalin theseblocks. SmallermultipleR's

TABLE 7.-INCREASE IN SOUND HOUSING, BASED ONSTEPWIIISE MULTIPLE REGRESSION

PartialRegression Standard regressionVTariablesa coefficient error coefficient1940-1950 Increase Related to 1940 VariablesABEF99 -0.564 1.109 -0.032DENSTY 0.000 0.000 -0.079OWNOCC -0.014 0.011 -0.077A30-39 2.996 2.333 0.080VACANT 0.025 0.026 0.061HEVIND -0.001 0.001 0.066DLAPTD -0.010 0.010 -0.066MONRNT -0.000 0.000 -0.055DISCBD -0.000 0.001 -0.027A20-29 0.036 1.430 0.041AOO-19 0.630 1.232 0.032MULHOU -0.000 0.001 -0.020

TOPOGR -0.001 0.002 -0.017Variables dropped: SNDHOU, DISCBD1950-1960 Increase Related to 1950 Variables

DLAPTD -0.022 0.016 -0.073DENSTY -0.000 0.000 -0.140A30-39 4.069 0.772 0.273ABEF99 0.266 0.207 0.069TOPOGR -0.002 0.001 -1.246MULHOU -0.006 0.005 -0.068HEVIND -0.005 0.004 -0.066MONRNT -0.000 0.000 -0.056VACANT 0.200 0.016 0.066A20-29 -0.275 0.350 -0.042HOUVAL 0.000 0.000 0.023OWNOCC 0.018 0.016 0.058RNTOCC 0.017 0.016 0.055NHOS40 -0.045 0.135 -0.018AOO-19 -0.045 0.224 -0.011Variables dropped: SNDHOU, HOUVAL, RNTOCC" Variables listed in order of inclusion in RegressionEquation.Source: calculated by author.

(.32 and .54) were found for both 1940 and1950 forblocks showingimprovements hanfor hose howing decline, upportinghe no-tiondiscussedpreviously oncerninghemorecomplexprocessunderlyinghesechanges. Itis also significanthatthis mprovements notsensitive o distancefrom he centralbusinessdistrict,mplying hat these changes are oc-curring hroughouthe studyarea.It mightbe expected,on the basis of thediscussion above, that blocks showing im-provementswould be closer to thecitycenterthan those experiencingdecline. In CedarRapids this is only partiallytrue (Figs. 13and 14). This findingsuggests that moreattentionhould be givenareas thathave the

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1971 INNER CITY 95HOUSING CHANGE 1940-1950

BLOCKS SHOWING INCREASES0 2000 FEE, 1 _ IN SOUND HOUSING

Fic. 13. Increases in sound housing, 1940-1950.potentialfordecline,in addition to the cur-rentconcernwithareas in the innercitythatare already severelydowngraded. To date,public renewal processes have concentratedsolely on themostdowngraded areas.Significantly,locksexperiencing ecreasesin low qualityhousinghave muchhigherpro-portionsof substandardhousing (forty-fourpercentforthe former nd twenty-nineer-cent forthe latter) than those experiencingincreases. This, along withpreviousfindingsconcerningvariables associated with qualityimprovements,ndicates that increases insound housing are mainly accruing to themost downgradedblocks,whereas decreasesin soundhousingare occurringn areas withlower proportionsof substandardhousing.Hoover and Vernon observed a similarprocess n New YorkCity.46They called thisthe fifth tage in the natural evolutionofresidentialreas. These observations einforcethe notionthatdecline is a continual, f notinevitable, rocess thatcan potentially ffectall housing, nd that significant enewal oc-

46Hoover and Vernon, op. cit., footnote 21, pp.194-98.

HOUSING CHANGE 1950-1960

BLOCKS SHOWING INCREASES.. ....EET l t IN SOUND HOUSING

Fic.14. Increases nsoundhousing, 950-1960.cursonlyafter everedowngrading as takenplace.Recalling the temporal and spatial proc-esses of change discussed earlier, strikingparallelsare noted. An underlying rocessissuggested by the tendencyfor areas mostseverely downgraded to improve, whereasareas withbetterqualityhousingare declin-ing, and by the observationthat decline isfirst elt n more centralareas and is experi-enced elsewhere n relation o therateof de-cline in thesecentral ocations.Thus, declineand expansion, mprovementnd contractionofhousingqualityare apparentlynstances fthe same basic processof residential hange.

CRITIQUE AND COMMENTThe foregoinganalysis suggests that theinner ity s decliningnresponse o the nter-action to several forces. Although CedarRapids does not sharethe problemof ghettoexpansionwithmost largerNorthAmericancities, it does show quality decline due toaging of housing, nd intra-urbanmigration,particularly vident throughthe filter-downprocess.Data limitationswere a handicap in this

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96 TRUMANA. HARTSHORN Marchanalysis due to the meager economic indi-cators available on a block basis. Neverthe-less, distinct emporal nd spatialtrendswereevident n the housingstockof the innercityof Cedar Rapids. Apparentlyhe most down-graded blocks were being upgraded in the1940-1960 period, whereas continuing eclinewas affecting igherqualityresidential reas.These observations suggest that residentialquality decline in North American cities ismost affectedby expansion of low income(poverty) areas, taking the formof ghettoexpansion in larger cities, and by outwardintra-urbanmigration n the partofvirtuallyall socioeconomic groups as their needs andincomes allow. The first process can bethoughtof as having a multiple nuclei pat-tern, whereas the latter is strongly ectoral.These dynamicforces,when juxtaposed withthe relatively ixed housing stock of the citywhich follows a concentricring pattern (interms of bands of homogeneous neighbor-hoods relative to age, density, nd buildingstyles), suggest that decline would be per-vasive throughoutsuch relatively uniformneighborhoods. Over time, adjacent rings ofhousing are adversely affected, and theprocess becomes most accelerated along sec-tors experiencingthe highest rates of out-migration nd, in particular, hose areas awayfrom he expandingghetto Fig. 15). Empiri-cal data from Cedar Rapids support this

SPATIAL PERSPECTIVE OF RESIDENTIALQUALITY DECLINE

Central6 BusinessDistrict

Fic. 15. Conceptualizationf residential ecline,showing heinteractionf a) the expanding hetto,b) relatively niform ixedhousing stock, and c)intraurban igration.contention, nd although its applicabilitytoothercities is suggested,this remains to beproven.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTI gratefullycknowledgethe assistanceofLawrenceA. Brown n designing heproblem,and his suggestions or mprovingarlydraftsof thispaper.