20.04.23 Seite 1Page 1

Flood Warning in Bavaria, Germany

Organization and Products

Data, Dataflow and Data Base

Alfons VogelbacherBavarian Environment Agency

– on behalf of GIZ

Dr. Alfons VogelbacherBavarian Environment Agencyalfons.vogelbacher@lfu.bayern.de

Flood Forecast & Uncertainty

20.04.23 Seite 2Page 2

Bavaria

population12.5 millionarea70,550 km2

administration7 district governments, 71 counties25 self-administered towns2056 communitiesstate capitalMunich

20.04.23 Seite 3Page 3

20.04.23 Seite 4Page 4

alpine regime summer floods

mixed regime of winter and summer floods

winter (spring) floods

Flood regimes in BavariaFlood regimes in Bavaria

20.04.23 Seite 5Page 5

Mai 1999Mai 1999

20.04.23 Seite 6Page 6

Loisach im Bereich Murnauer Moos Foto: LfU

20.04.23 Seite 7Page 7

Hochwasserschäden in Eschenlohe /Loisach Foto: LfU

20.04.23 Seite 8Page 8

Iller bei Sonthofen Foto: WWA Kempten

20.04.23 Seite 9Page 9

Bavarian Action Programm 2001 – 2020Bavarian Action Programm 2001 – 2020& EU Floods Directive in 2007 - 2015& EU Floods Directive in 2007 - 2015

prevention, protection, preparedness, incl. flood forecast and early warning

the promotion of sustainable land use practices, the improvement of water retention and the controlled flooding of certain areas

taking into account the costs and benefitscomprehensive consideration of soil and

water management, spatial planning, land use, nature conservation, navigation and port infrastructure

20.04.23 Seite 10Page 10

Organization & DisseminationOrganization & Dissemination

20.04.23 Seite 11Page 11

20.04.23 Seite 12Page 12

www.hnd.bayern.dewww.hnd.bayern.de

20.04.23 Seite 13Page 13

Mobile Web Site (m.hnd.bayern.de)Mobile Web Site (m.hnd.bayern.de)

20.04.23 Seite 14Page 14

W cm Place Type of measure or hazard

630 Passau Advance warning to the police by the regulatory agency

720 Passau Flooding of the upper Zollände in Passau and the harbour area Racklau.

720 Passau Flooding of the Fritz-Schäffer-Promenade at the tavern -Tiroler-, removal of the motor vehicles.

740 Passau Flooding of the Fritz-Schäffer-Promenade, traffic stoppage.

750 Passau Evacuation ot the parking lots at Schanzl.

750 Passau Traffic blocking at the upper Donaulände

770 Passau Flooding of the high road ST 2132 at Löwmühle

770 Passau Evacuation of garages and souvenir shops at the lower Donaulände. flooding of the harbour area Racklau

780 Passau Highest water lever for water navigation (HSW).

790 Passau Flooding of the approach to the Nagelschmied- and Höllgasse

800 Passau Flooding of the posterior Donaulände downstream of the Schanzl bridge.

800 Passau Warning by loudspeaker for the upper Donaulände, Regensburgerstreet, Rindermarkt and Ort.

810 Passau 'Ort' partly flooded.

...

Waterlevel vs. Flood Risk & MeasuresWaterlevel vs. Flood Risk & Measures

20.04.23 Seite 15Page 15

Manageable Flood PoldersManageable Flood Polders

Retention Volume: at least 30 Mill. m³ until 2020

7 locations in plan

20.04.23 Seite 16Page 16

Mobile Flood Protection WallMobile Flood Protection Wall

20.04.23 Seite 17Page 17

Online Maps (www.iug.bayern.de)Online Maps (www.iug.bayern.de)

Contents- designated flood areas- preliminary assured

flood areas- water depth (HQ100)- different scenarios- past floods (areas)- areas under the impact

of water (input from soil maps)

- link to flood warning service (HND)

Functions- download of

regulations- unlimited map scaling- optional background- WMS possibilities- …

updated online-version:2010

20.04.23 Seite 18Page 18

Flood Risk Map Flood Risk Map Contents and layout supplementary sheetContents and layout supplementary sheet

Potential adverse consequences on the- indicative number of inhabitants- economic activity- environment- cultural assets

20.04.23 Seite 19Page 19

20.04.23 Seite 20Page 20

Flood Warning SystemFlood Warning System

Real-Time Data Collection

Polled Systems (Actively Sampling)NFS File Transfer

FTP & http-request

On-Line Data Base

MetadataWaterlevel &DischargeMeteodata

Automated Products

ForecastsMaps

Bulletins

Product / Data Dissemination

WarningsWWWFTP

E-Mails, SMS

Clients

PublicEmergencyLocal Gov

Water Auth.Others

Hydromet Input NWP

SnowforecastRadar

Meteorologists

Analysis & Modeling

Hydrological ModelingFlood Risk Assessment

Fig. based on: Elliot J., R. Catchlove, S. Sooriuyakumaran and R. Thompson (2005)

20.04.23 Seite 21Page 21

Realtime Data CollectionRealtime Data Collection

– Station with Data Sampler and Telemetry

– Polling of stations by Computer (SODA) or active via ISDN or GSM

– NFS File Transfer to Central Master Database

– Replication of the Master Database to local databases

20.04.23 Seite 22Page 22

Waterlevel & DischargeWaterlevel & Discharge

Gauging Stations– approx. 600– Remote data transmission (560 in

operation) – Redundance (approx. 200 in

operation) Tasks

– Structural improvement to highten the measurement range

– Improvement of discharge measurement

– Increase of measurements during floods

20.04.23 Seite 23Page 23

On-Line Data BaseOn-Line Data Base

Data Base (MySQL) Metadata: gauging-stations, meteo-stations, precipitation-stations, recorded message, data transfer,

statistics, level-discharge curves, flood stages, warning levels, flood-risk plans etc.

Reports: flood bulletins, warnings Dissemination plan: adresses (3991), messages (1525) Data: Waterlever & Discharge (1077) with Forecasts (184)Meteo: Preciptiation (919) Snowfall Level (627) Water Equivalent of Snow (377) Atmospheric pressure (71) Global Radiaton (191) relative Air Humidity (406) Sunshine Duration (92) Air Temperature (511) Dew Point Temperature (148) Wind Velocity (365) Snowmelt and Rain from SNOW4 1km x 1km Water Equivalent of the Snow Cover from SNOW4 1km x 1km

20.04.23 Seite 24Page 24

Forecast SystemForecast System

River basin models with rainfall-runoff and flood-routing components

LARSIM (Baden Württemberg, Bavaria, Rhineland Palatine)

Hydrodynamic models (1D - hydraulic models)

WAVOS: Rhine, Elbe, Odra, MainFLUX/FLORIS: Inn, Lech, Danube

20.04.23 Seite 25Page 25

River Basin Models connected to Hydrodynamic River Basin Models connected to Hydrodynamic Models (green Lines) Models (green Lines)

20.04.23 Seite 27Page 27

Uncertainty in Forecast vs. Lead TimeUncertainty in Forecast vs. Lead Time

lead time based on travel time from upstream gauges

lead time based on precipitation forecasts

lead time based on measured precipitation

20.04.23 Seite 28Page 28

Forecast Result from Meteorol. Ensemble Forecast Result from Meteorol. Ensemble ForecastForecast

20.04.23 Seite 29Page 29

Forecast with Uncertainty Range in the WebForecast with Uncertainty Range in the Web

20.04.23 Seite 30Page 30

Österreich

Bayern

München

Weilheim

AREA OF INTEREST

Catchment area of reservoir AE = 1138 km²

Catchment area at MunichAE = 1676 km²

GarmischPartenkirchen

Eschenlohe

Schlehdorf KochelseeAuslauf

Beuerberg

Mittenwald

RißbachklammRißbachdüker

Sylvensteinspeicher

Lenggries

Bad Tölz

Puppling

Precipitation stationsand gauges with remote data transmission

Hydrological network

Reservoir SYLVENSTEIN

20.04.23 Seite 31Page 31

MAIN DATA:

Construction1954 - 1959

Catchment area 1138 km²

Maximum storage level 767 mNN

Normal storage level 752 mNN

Minimum storage level 736,40 mNN

Total storage volume124 Mio m³

Surface at max. level6,61 km²

Surface at normal level3,92 km²

20.04.23 Seite 32Page 32

Retentionvolume 52 Mio. m³Retentionvolume 52 Mio. m³

Reduction of peak inflow Reduction of peak inflow by 690 m²/sby 690 m²/s

Sylvenstein Reservoir Flood 2005Sylvenstein Reservoir Flood 2005

20.04.23 Seite 33Page 33

Forggensee

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Sa, 20.08.05 00:00 So, 21.08.05 00:00 Mo, 22.08.05 00:00 Di, 23.08.05 00:00 Mi, 24.08.05 00:00 Do, 25.08.05 00:00 Fr, 26.08.05 00:00 Sa, 27.08.05 00:00

Ab

flu

ss [

m3/s

]

779

779,5

780

780,5

781

781,5

782

782,5

783

Seesta

nd

[m

üN

N]

Gesamtzufluss

Abfluss

Seestand

Forggensee Reservoir Flood 2005Forggensee Reservoir Flood 2005

20.04.23 Seite 34Page 34

Isar in Bad Tölz

Thank you for your attention!