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CROATIAN ENERGY DAY
24. / 24th FORUM
DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ
EU ENERGY POLICY AFTER 21st CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES TO THE UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON
CLIMATE CHANGES (COP21)
27. studeni 2015, Zagreb
ENERGETSKA POLITIKA EU-A NAKON 21. KONFERENCIJE STRANAKA OKVIRNE KONVENCIJE UN-A O KLIMATSKIM
PROMJENAMA (COP21)
HRVATSKO ENERGETSKO DRUŠTVO
CROATIAN ENERGY ASSOCIATION
24. FORUM: DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ
24th FORUM: ENERGY DAY IN CROATIA
Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka Okvirne
konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama (COP21)
EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
27. Studeni 2015. / 27th November 2015
Mala dvorana „Vatroslav Lisinski“ / Small Hall “Vatroslav Lisinski”
Zagreb, Trg Stjepana Radića 4
Izdavač / Publisher:
Hrvatsko energetsko društvo
Zagreb, Savska cesta 163
Priredili / Edit by:
Dr. sc. Goran Granić Dr. sc. Branka Jelavić
Glavna i odgovorna urednica / Editor:
Dr. sc. Branka Jelavić
Pomoćnici glavne urednice / Assistants of the Editor:
Mr. sc. Sandra Antešević
Dinko Đurđević, mag. ing. oecoing.
Dizajn naslovnice / Cover design:
Martina Komerički Košarić, mag. oec.
Engleski prijevodi / English translations:
Dinko Đurđević, mag. ing. oecoing.
Tisak / Press:
AZP-Grafis
Samobor, Franjina 7
Autorska prava / Copyright:
Hrvatsko energetsko društvo
Zagreb, Savska cesta 163
Naklada / Edition:
250 primjeraka
Za sve navode u člancima odgovorni su isključivo autori. Authors are responsible for all statements made in their articles.
Sadržaj / Contents
PREDGOVOR .................................................................................................................................... 1
FOREWORD ...................................................................................................................................... 3
Poziv Svjetskog energetskog vijeća na 21. Konferenciju stranaka ..................................................... 5
The World Energy Council's call to the 21st Conference of Parties ................................................... 6
ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE ......................................... 7
1. Goran Granić .......................................................................................................................... 8
2. Jacques de Jong ...................................................................................................................... 9
3. Jan Blomgren .......................................................................................................................... 9
4. Florian Haslauer ..................................................................................................................... 9
5. Stefan Ulreich .......................................................................................................................10
6. Marko Senčar .......................................................................................................................10
7. Philip Lewis ..........................................................................................................................11
8. Maja Božičević Vrhovčak ....................................................................................................12
9. Ivana Rogulj .........................................................................................................................13
10. Goran Majstrović ..................................................................................................................14
11. Matislav Majstrović ..............................................................................................................14
12. Elis Sutlović .........................................................................................................................14
13. Bernard Franković ................................................................................................................15
14. Paolo Blecich ........................................................................................................................15
15. Andreja Hustić ......................................................................................................................16
16. Bruno Židov .........................................................................................................................16
17. Marko Karan.........................................................................................................................17
18. Jurica Brajković ....................................................................................................................17
19. Maja Pokrovac ......................................................................................................................18
20. Mišo Mudrić .........................................................................................................................19
21. Vladimir Potočnik ................................................................................................................19
SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS .............................................................................20
1. Goran Granić i suradnici: Klimatska politika u uvjetima otvorenog tržišta / Climate policy in terms of open energy market ...............................………………...………………..……..........21
2. Jacques de Jong: Glavni izazovi politike EU u području klime i energije / Major EU policy challenge in climate and energy ………………………………..….……………………..……22
3. Jan Blomgren: Energija, sigurnost i profitabilnost – pozadinsko razmišljanje / Energy, safety and profitability – the thinking behind .......................................…………………………...….24
4. Florian Haslauer: Prošireni izazovi europske klimatske i energetske politike / Extended
challenges for the EU's climate and energy policy .......………..…………………………...…25
5. Peter Jørgensen: Iskustva danskog operatora prijenosnog sustava sa širokom integracijom vjetroelektrana / Danish TSO experiences with large scale integration of wind power .……...27
6. Stefan Ulreich: Sigurnost opskrbe: paneuropski pristup – prilike i zahtjevi veće suradnje kroz europsko tržište električne energije / Security of supply: A pan-european approach – the
opportunities and requirements of greater cooperation across European electricity markets.....28
7. Marko Senčar: EU energetsko tržište i regulacije ulaze u novi zakonski okvir: Energetska zajednica / EU energy market and regulation enter a new framework: Energy Union …..…....32
8. Philip Lewis: Podržavanje obveznog, ne poticanje nepraktičnog / Supporting the inevitable,
not pushing the impractical ……………...………………………….........................................33
9. Maja Božičević Vrhovčak, Ivana Rogulj: Emisije CO2 u Hrvatskoj 2050. godine: Koji je put
u niskougljičnu budućnost? / CO2 emissions in Croatia in 2050: What is the pathway to a low-
carbon future? .............................................................................................................................34
10. Goran Majstrović, Matislav Majstrović, Elis Sutlović: Očekivani budući uvjeti očuvanja sigurnog pogona sustava s velikom razinom integracije OIE / Expected future conditions for
secure power system operation with large scale of RES ............................................................35
11. Bernard Franković, Paolo Blecich, Andreja Hustić: Utjecaj uvođenja obnovljivih izvora energije na održivi razvoj energetskih sustava Republike Hrvatske s osvrtom na emisije stakleničkih plinova / Influence of implementation of renewable energy sources on sustainable development of energy system of the Republic of Croatia with focus on greenhouse gases ....36
12. Bruno Židov, Gordana Brlek, Jurica Brajković, Marko Karan: Potencijal smanjenja
emisija obnovom voznog parka u Hrvatskoj / Emission reduction potential with the renewal of
the vehicle fleet in Croatia .........................................................................................................38
13. Igor Grozdanić, Maja Pokrovac: Novi poslovni modeli opskrbe zelenom energijom na tržištu energije s učincima na smanjenje CO2 / New business models of green energy supply on the
energy market with the effects of reduction of CO2 ...................................................................40
14. Mišo Mudrić: Pravni okvir Istraživanja i eksploatacije ugljikovodika u hrvatskom dijelu Jadrana / Regulatory framework of Exploration and exploitation of Croatian part of Adriatic 41
15. Vladimir Potočnik: Zaštita klime i zapošljavanje u Hrvatskoj / Climate protection and employment in Croatia ...............................................................................................................43
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 1
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
PREDGOVOR
Vrijeme održavanja ovogodišnjeg Foruma poklapa se s održavanjem 21. konferencije stranaka Okvirne konvencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama (COP21) u Parizu. Za
energetski sektor, politički dogovor o zaštiti klime u Parizu, otvara raspravu kako realizirati klimatsku politiku smanjenja emisija CO2, odnosno kako osmisliti energetsku
politiku koja će se temeljiti na potpunoj primjeni politike zaštite klime.
Dok se u Parizu raspravlja o sadržaju i obvezama klimatske politike, Europska unija, koja podržava politiku zaštite klime, raspravlja o elementima provođenja klimatske i energetske
politike. U pogledu na Pariz u zraku lebdi pitanje, je li moguće postići dogovor o klimi, koji bi bio obvezujuć, pravedan i provediv? Vjerojatno bi većinski odgovor bio: teško, ali bi bilo nužno potrebno.
U čemu je problem da je tako teško postići obvezujuć dogovor o zaštiti klime?
Klimatski obvezujuć dogovor ima za posljedicu za svaku zemlju obvezu mijenjanja
energetske politike, uključivanje zaštite klime u troškove energije, mijenjanje tehnologija u cijelom lancu proizvodnje, transporta/prijenosa, distribucije i opskrbe energije, povećanje energetske učinkovitosti, proizvodnju energiju iz obnovljivih izvora i druge mjere koje
doprinose smanjenju emisija CO2. To će u početnoj fazi utjecati na povećanje troškova energije za gospodarstvo i građane, pa posredno na konkurentnost gospodarstva i standard građana.
Kada bi samo troškovi za energiju bili u pitanju, u čemu bi bile sve zemlje u jednakoj
poziciji, vjerojatno ne bi bilo većih problema u postizanju dogovora. Veći problem je razina smanjenja emisija za svaku zemlju i tu proizlaze i temeljne razlike između zemalja, od čega krenuti i na koju razinu doći u određenom vremenu. Početna pozicija nije jednaka,
odgovornost za sadašnju razinu emisija nije jednaka, razina tehnološkog razvoja nije jednaka, razina standarda i potrošnje energije nije jednaka, razina proizvodnje energije nije jednaka i ekonomska moć zemalja nije jednaka. Te nejednakosti čine i temeljni problem dogovora, posebno obvezujućeg i posebno ako bi za nepridržavanje bile uvedene sankcije.
Pregovori oko klimatskih promjena posredno otvaraju šire pitanje međunarodnih ekonomskih odnosa, redistribucije dodane vrijednosti i odnosa razvijenih i nerazvijenih,
bogatih i siromašnih društava. U kojoj mjeri postoji spremnost da se napravi iskorak prema pravednijem društvu jednakih šansi, ostaje kao pitanje za sve nas i za cijelu međunarodnu zajednicu. Izbjeglička kriza pokazuje da je spremnost za to još uvijek skromnih razmjera.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 2
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Forum će se baviti pitanjima provedbe klimatske politike, koja postaju temeljna u EU, ako
se definiraju obveze u razdoblju do 2050. godine. Evidentno teške posljedice nekonzistentne i neučinkovite politike u području obnovljivih izvora energije, traže definiranje novih mehanizama, s manje administrativnog upliva i vraćanje tržišnim temeljima odnosa u energetskom sektoru.
Zahvaljujem svima koji su pripremili referate i prezentacije za ovaj Forum. Nadam se da
će doprinijeti razumijevanju problema i traženju novih odnosa u realizaciji klimatske politike.
U Zagrebu, 27. Studenog 2015.
Predsjednik Hrvatskog energetskog društva
Dr.sc. Goran Granić
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 3
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
FOREWORD
This year's Forum coincides with 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Changes (COP21) in Paris. For energy sector, political agreement
about climate change in Paris opens the discussion about realization of the climate policy
of CO2 emission reduction, with reference on conceiving an energy policy that will be
based on complete implementation of climate protection policy.
While content and commitments will be discussed in Paris, EU, which supports climate
protection policy, will be discussing about elements of climate and energy policy
implementation. In Paris the main question will be: is it possible to achieve an agreement
on climate change, that would be legally binding, fair and feasible? The majority answer
would probably be: difficult, but absolutely necessary.
What is the problem in achieving a legally binding agreement on climate policy?
Legally binding climate change agreement has its consequence – every country would be
legally bound to change its climate policy, include climate protection in energy costs,
modify or change technology in the entire manufacturing chain, transport/transfer,
distribution and energy supply, increase in energy efficiency, production of energy from
renewable energy sources and other measures that contribute to reduction of CO2
emissions. In the start-up phase, it will directly affect the citizens and entrepreneurship
with the increase in expenses and then the competitiveness of economy and living standard
of citizens.
Where it only for the expenses of energy in question, in which every country would be in
the same position, there probably would not be any problem in achieving of the agreement.
The larger problem lies in tresholds of emission reductions for every country, which
produces the differences between countries – from which level to start and to which level
to get to in certain amount of time. The starting point is not the same, responsibility for the
current emission levels is not the same, the level of technical development is not the same,
the level of standard and energy consumption is not the same, the level of energy
production is not the same and the economic power of every country is not the same. These
disparities make the fundamental problem of the potential agreement, especially of the one
that would be binding and especially if it would be agreed that there would be sanctions for
not holding up to the agreement.
Negotiations on climate changes indirectly open the broader question on international
economic relations, redistribution of added value and relations between developed and
undeveloped, wealthy and poor societies. The question for all of us and the entire
international community remains, in which extent will there be readiness to make the first
step towards society that is more just. Refugee crisis shows us that the readiness for such
extent is still very modest.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 4
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
The Forum will deal with the questions of climate policy implementation, which are
becoming fundamental in the EU, where the obligations in the period until 2050 is defined.
Evidently severe consequences of the inconsistent and inefficient policy regarding the
renewable energy sources need to be defined with new mechanisms, less political influence
and the return to market-based relations in energy sector.
Thank you all for the preparation of your papers and presentations for this Forum. I hope
that they will contribute to understanding of the problem and in the search of new relations
in the realization of climate policy.
Zagreb, 27th November 2015
Chairman of the Croatian Energy Association
Goran Granić, PhD
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 5
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Poziv Svjetskog energetskog vijeća na 21. Konferenciju stranaka
Nužna akcija zahtijeva solidarnost ispred dogmatike.
Svjetsko energetsko vijeće, koje predstavlja preko 3000 organizacija iz vlada, privatnih i javnih poduzeća, sveučilišta, nevladinih udruga i dionike povezanih s energetikom, poziva na stvaranje
jasnog puta iz Pariza, koji će prekinuti rastuću nesigurnost koja je bila sjenka nad energetskim sektorom dugi niz desetljeća. Energetska zajednica hitno treba:
· Jasan plan određivanja cijene ugljičnih emisija u skladu s globalnim ciljevima, koji će svima omogućiti učinkovito donošenje ekonomskih odluka. Od svih mjera koje su
trenutno pod raspravom u Parizu, to je ključni prioritet. Pozivamo na odlučan pragmatizam svih strana u dostavljanju takvog dogovora, koji će omogućiti značajnu trenutnu akciju prije dogmatike.
· Predvidljivu politiku i ujednačen regulatorni okvir kako bi se otvorila mogućnost ulaganja za osiguravanje dostupne, sigurne i održive energije. Smanjenje rizika politike
je presudno.
· Ključna akcija na regionalnoj i nacionalnoj razini. Samo usvajanje snažnog i uravnoteženog nacionalnog energetskog okvira politike može pružiti značajan napredak. Dodatak plana pod nazivom Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) u
pregovore je važan korak. Međutim, prevođenje međunarodnih ciljeva za energiju na nacionalnu razinu zahtijeva pristup pod nazivom Energy Trillema, koji uravnotežuje potrebe energetske sigurnosti, okoliša i socijalni program.
Očito je da se ne krećemo u smjeru „2 stupnja Celzijeva“. Scenariji pokazuju da će emisije daleko prijeći gornju granicu potrebnu za održivi put, čak uz postojeću tehnologiju, trenutne politike i poznatu brzinu inovativnosti. To će uzrokovati visoke troškove i pritisak na globalnu
ekonomiju, što će imati značajan utjecaj na sve nas.
Rastući broj pojavljivanja ekstremnih vremenskih uvjeta utječe na ključnu energetsku strukturu već danas. Učestalost pojavljivanja ekstremnih vremenskih uvjeta se učetverostručila u zadnjih 30 godina i ovaj trend i njegovi utjecaji će se nastaviti bez mjera ublažavanja i prilagodbe. Naš rad prikazuje da su energetski predvodnici u Aziji, Africi i Amerikama pretežito zabrinuti zbog
rastućeg broja pojavljivanja ekstremnih vremenskih uvjeta koji ugrožavaju ključnu infrastrukturu i predstavljaju prijetnju socijalnom i ekonomskom razvoju.
Potreban je povijesni energetski prijelaz. Energetski sektor je srž rješenja i bit će osnova za uspješan energetski prijelaz. Kako bi se ubrzao ovaj prijelaz, potreban je značajan angažman sa energetskim sektorom i veći dijalog između političkih i poslovnih voditelja kako bi se odredili prioriteti i ključne akcije na dugom putu koji započinje u Parizu.
Globalna energetska zajednica će se okupiti na Svjetskom energetskom kongresu u Istanbulu
u 2016. godini gdje ćemo se obvezati prihvatiti ovu novu granicu. Svjetsko energetsko vijeće poziva stranke u Parizu na slaganje o jasnom, jednoznačnom i nepristranom klimatskom okviru i shemi određivanja cijena ugljičnih emisija kao bi se omogućilo energetskom sektoru dostavljanje potrebnog energetskog prijelaza za najveću korist svih.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 6
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
The World Energy Council's call to the 21st Conference of Parties
Urgent action requires solidarity beyond dogmatism.
The World Energy Council, representing over 3000 organisations from governments, private and
state companies, academia, NGOs and energy-related stakeholders, is calling for a clear pathway
from Paris that will end the growing uncertainty that has cast a shadow over the energy sector for
many decades. The energy community urgently needs:
· A clear carbon pricing scheme in line with the global objectives that will allow all to
make efficient economic decisions. Of all the measures currently being undertaken on the
ground and discussed in Paris, this is the key priority. We call for determined pragmatism
from all sides to deliver such a deal that enables significant on-going action beyond
dogmatism.
· Predictable policy and balanced regulatory frameworks to unlock the needed
investment to ensure affordable, reliable and sustainable energy. Reducing policy risk is
critical.
· Crucial action at regional and national level. Only the adoption of strong and balanced
national energy policy frameworks can provide substantive progress. The addition of the
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions track to the negotiations is an important
step. However, translating the international objective to the national level for energy
requires an Energy Trilemma approach, which balances the needs of energy security,
environment and social agenda.
It is clear that we are not on a 2 degree Celsius track. Our Scenarios show that, with existing
technologies, current policies and known rates of innovation, emissions will peak well above the
levels required for a sustainable pathway. This will cause both cost and stress on the global
economy that will have a significant impact for us all.
The increasing number of extreme weather events affect critical energy infrastructure today.
The frequency of extreme weather events has quadrupled over the past 30 years and this trend and
its effects will continue without decisive mitigation and adaptation measures. Our work shows that
energy leaders in Asia, Africa and Americas are particularly concerned about the rising number of
extreme weather events that are putting critical infrastructures at risk and threatening social and
economic development.
A historic energy transition is needed. The energy sector is core to the solution and will be
fundamental to the successful energy transition. To accelerate this transition requires meaningful
engagement with the energy sector and greater dialogue between policy and business leaders to
prioritise and bring to scale critical actions on the long road from Paris.
The global energy community will gather at the World Energy Congress in Istanbul in 2016
where we commit to embrace this new frontier. The World Energy Council calls on the Parties
in Paris to agree on a clear, unambiguous and equitable climate framework and carbon pricing
scheme to enable the energy sector to deliver the needed energy transition for the greatest benefit of
all.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 7
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 8
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Goran Granić
Born: 18 April 1950 in Baška Voda, Republic of Croatia
Education:
1979 Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb
1976 M.Sc. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb
1972 B.Sc. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb
Professional experience:
2004 – Present Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb
§ Manager
2000 – 2003 Government of the Republic of Croatia
§ Deputy president of the Government of the Republic of Croatia
§ Vice-president of the Government of the Republic of Croatia
1994 – 1999 Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb
§ Manager
1992 – 1995 Parliament of the Republic of Croatia
§ First Vice-president of the Croatian Parliament
§ Member of the Croatian Parliament
§ Chairman of the Committee for Physical Planning and Environmental
Protection
1991 – 1992 Institute for Electric Power Research, Zagreb
§ Advisor in the Institute for Electric Power Research
1990 – 1991 HEP (Croatian Electric Utility), Zagreb
§ First General manager of HEP
1987 – 1990 ZEOH (Electricity Company of Croatia), Zagreb
§ Manager of Development Department, Member of Development
Department Board
1973 – 1987 Institute for Electric Power Research, Zagreb
§ Deputy manager of Study Department
§ Director of the study unit
Other:
§ more than 160 publications in the field of energy sector planning
§ Chairman of the Croatian Energy Association (HED – CEA) – WEC National Committee
§ Member and Secretary-General of the Croatian Technical Academy 2006 – 2012
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 9
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Jacques de Jong
Jacques de Jong has a long experience in government energy policy
making. After completing economics at Erasmus University Rotterdam, he
joined the Dutch ministry of Economics in 1971, working on EU issues and
since 1973 on international oil policy, including on the IEA and
consumer/producer dialogues. In 1980 he became deputy director for
Electricity, responsible for nuclear energy policies and coal and holding
several international positions in EU- and OECD fora. Since the mid 1990’s he acted as account manager for the energy utility sector and was
instrumental in the liberalisation process and the drafting of Dutch policy on
legislation. In 1998 he was appointed first director of the Office for Energy Regulation. He was
active in EU affairs, including as a co-founder of the CEER (Council of European Energy
Regulators) and chairing various working groups. Since 1st January 2003 Mr. de Jong is continuing
his non-executive functions as a senior fellow at the CIEP, the Clingendael International Energy
Program. He has published a number of papers etc. since then (http://www.clingendaelenergy.com
/publications), on areas such as electricity market designs, regional energy policies, gas supply
security architectures and EU energy policy issues.
Jan Blomgren
Jan Blomgren is CEO and founder of INBEx (Institute of Nuclear
Business Excellence), providing independent nuclear executive advice and
business leadership development globally. The INBEx team comprises over
20 former CEOs, Director Generals and similar.
He has previously been professor in applied nuclear physics at Uppsala
University, strategist for nuclear competence at Vattenfall, and Director of
the Swedish Nuclear Technology Centre.
Florian Haslauer
Florian Haslauer is Global Head Utilities of A.T. Kearney since 2014.
Prior to that, he was leading the EMEA Utilities Practice of A.T. Kearney.
Florian Haslauer is working 24 years with the firm and since 2001 as
Partner. He has been leading successful consulting project for many of the
large European and Global Utilities. Main focus of the projects has been
Strategic Development, Business Optimization, Restructuring, Preparation
for Market liberalization and adaption of regulatory framework for Power
and Gas Utilities.
Additionally to his consulting, Florian Haslauer conducted several market studies on the
development of the European Power and Gas markets and the Global Energy markets. He has been
acting as Energy market expert in expert hearings in the European Parliament and in the German
Parliament. He earned a PHD from the Technical University in Graz, Austria.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 10
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Peter Jørgensen
Peter Jørgensen holds a M.Sc. Mech. Eng. and has been employed in the Danish power supply industry for more than 25 years. Peter Jørgensen has
been responsible for planning of the Danish electricity system as well as
opening of the electricity market. He has represented Denmark in the
international TSO organisations Nordel, ETSO and ENTSO-E with respect to
system development and electricity markets. Peter Jørgensen’s current responsibilities include development of the international electricity
infrastructure and electricity markets with focus on integration of renewable
energy. He is also in charge of Energinet.dk's international consultancy
services.
Stefan Ulreich
Dr. Stefan Ulreich works for E.ON SE in Düsseldorf in the team of Political Affairs and Corporate Communications with a special focus on
Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency within the EU. Dr Stefan Ulreich
is the Chair of the WEC’s (World Energy Council) Global Energy Frameworks partnership with Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) and
advisor of the WEC vice-chair Leonhard Birnbaum. He is also a member of
the WEC’s Programme Committee and Rules of Trade Knowledge Network.
Marko Senčar
Marko Senčar works as a Seconded national expert in the Director’s Office of the Agency for Cooperation of Energy Regulators. He participates in
several projects, especially in monitoring and cooperation with Energy
Community Secretariat. Prior to this, he was deputy managing director of
Energy Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, responsible for international
activities and a member of CEER and ACER Board of Regulators. Before that
he worked for around three years as a Director of Directorate for energy
supply, where he managed the preparation of energy legislation for market
introduction end establishment the national regulatory authority.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 11
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Philip Lewis
Philip Lewis is a leading international expert in customer centric
behavioural, competitive and smart issues in the global energy market. He
has 18 years of experience in over 60 markets in 5 continents for 500+
organisations. He is a member of the World Economic Forum Global
Agenda Council on the Future of Electricity 2014-2016 and also a co-
founder and board member of the Smart Energy Demand Coalition
(SEDC). Philip Lewis is named among top 40 most influential people in
Smart Grid in Europe by Metering International 2014. He is head of
marketing research and analysis for the UK based retailing subsidiary of
Amoco (BP) and Seeboard (EDF) during the onset of competition in the British retail energy
market. Philip Lewis holds a PhD from the University of Edinburgh.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 12
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Maja Božičević Vrhovčak
Born: 17 April 1972 in Republic of Croatia
Education:
§ 2005 – Ph.D. Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering
and Computing, University of Zagreb
§ 2000 – M.Sc. Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering
and Computing, University of Zagreb
§ 1996 – Dipl. Ing. Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Electrical
Engineering and Computing, University of Zagreb
Professional experience:
10/2007 – Present Society for Sustainable Development Design (DOOR)
§ Executive director
12/2008 – Present Society for Sustainable Development Design (DOOR)
§ Project Leader
3/2008 – 12/2008 Society for Sustainable Development Design (DOOR)
§ Renewable energy sources and Energy
efficiency key expert
2/2007 – 9/2007 Society for Sustainable Development Design (DOOR)
§ National expert
10/1996 – 10/2007 Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
§ Researcher, lecturer
11/1996 – 5/2008 Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
§ Task leader
Other:
§ Lecturing experience in:
o Energy Technologies; Renewable Energy Sources; Energy and Environment;
Energy Management, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Zagreb
§ Membership of professional bodies: IEEE, CIGRE (International Council on Large Electric
Systems) – Croatian branch, Croatian Energy Society, Croatian Society for Air Protection,
Croatian Solar Energy Society
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 13
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Ivana Rogulj
Born: 4 January 1983 in Republic of Croatia
Education and training:
§ 2013 – Univ.spec. in Ecoengineering, Centre for postgraduation
studies, University of Zagreb
§ 2013 – EU funds projects manager, Experta business school,
Zagreb
§ 2011 – Solar energy course, Faculty of mechanical design and
naval architecture, University of Zagreb
§ 2010 – Certified measurement and verification professional,
Efficiency valuation organization
§ 2007 – Mr.Sc. in Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing,
University of Zagreb
Professional experience:
05/2013 – Present Society for Sustainable Development Design (DOOR)
§ Project Manager
2012 – 05/2013 HEP ESCO ltd.
§ Head of Marketing and Information Unit
2011 – 2012 HEP ESCO ltd.
§ Acting Director
2007 – 2011 HEP ESCO ltd.
§ Project Manager
Other:
§ experienced in project management, unit management and acting management of small
enterprise (19 employees)
§ currently managing project with participation of project partners with various backgrounds
and expertise levels
§ 8 years of volunteering experience
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 14
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Goran Majstrović
Goran Majstrović is Head of Transmission and Distribution Department in
Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb, Croatia where he has been working
since 1998. His Institute was officially appointed by the Government as
professional support to Croatian Energy Regulatory Council for four years.
Field of his interest is transmission system planning and analysis as well as
electricity market design. He’s been actively participating in many international projects as a consultant, mainly in South East Europe. As an
author or co-author he published more than 100 studies and more than 90
papers. He received his PhD in 2007 at Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Split where
he received status of Research Associate Scientist in 2009 and Research Scientist in 2011. He also
serves as associate lecturer at Faculty of Economy Rijeka at postgraduate study in Energy
Economics. Since 2008 he is lecturer at European University Institute in Florence, Italy, Robert
Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, Florence Summer School of Regulation of Energy Utilities.
He is member of Scientific Council for Energy of Croatian Academy of Science and Art.
Matislav Majstrović
Matislav Majstrovic was born in Dragljane, Croatia, on December 24, 1949.
He graduated B.S. degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of
Split, Faculty of Electrical Engineering in Croatia He received his M.S. and
Ph.D. degrees in Electrical Engineering from the University of Zagreb, Faculty
of Electrical Engineering 1979 and 1986, respectively. He is currently a senior
research scientist at Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb and a full tenure
professor at University of Split, Faculty of Electrical Engineering. His research
interests include Power System Analysis, Implementation of fuzzy system
theory and genetic algorithm into Electrical Power System Analysis, Distributed generation,
Restructuring of Electrical Energy Sector. He is a member of IEEE, IASTED, CIGRE, WEC and
Energy Association of Croatia.
Elis Sutlović
Elis Sutlovic was born in Šibenik, Croatia, on April 17, 1961. He received
B.S. and Ph.D. from the University of Split, Faculty of Electrical Engineering
1984 and 2001, respectively. He obtained his MSEE in Electrical Engineering
from the University of Zagreb in Croatia 1993. He is currently a full professor
at University of Split, Faculty of Electrical Engineering. His dominant
research interest is Power System Planning and Power System Analysis. He is
a member of CIGRE, and Energy Association of Croatia.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 15
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Bernard Franković
Bernard Franković graduated in 1971. on Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Rijeka. He got his master's degree in the field of mechanics
and defended his thesis on the same Faculty in 1990. Research for his
doctoral disertation as Fulbright scholar was published on City University of
New York, USA. From 1972 he is constantly employed on the Faculty of
Mechanical-Naval Architecture (now Faculty of Engineering) of the
University in Rijeka. In 1998 he was chosen as full professor. He was dean of
the Faculty in mandates and performed the tasks of Supervisor of the
Department of Thermodynamics and Energy Engineering in four mandates.
Key areas of his interests are thermodynamics, renewable energy sources, thermotechnical and
thermoenergetic systems. He published 150 science and technical papers, is author in several
scientific studies and numerous projects. He is a member in several international and domestic
science and professional organisations, associations and bodies. He is a member of The Scientific
Council for Maritime Affairs (HAZU), Scientific Council for Power Supply (HAZU) and a regular
memeber of Croatian Academy of Engineering. He is vice president of International Solar Energy
Society, ISES Europe, Freiburg. He is a member of International Institute of Refrigeration, Pariz i
American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-conditioning, Atlanta. For his scientific work,
he received numerous recognitions and awards, which are: City of Rijeka Award (1999), Hrvoje
Požar annual award (2000), Annual Science Award (2001) and Rikard Podhorsky annual award
(2008).
Paolo Blecich
Paolo Blecich graduated in 2003 on Faculty of Engineering in Rijeka.
He defended his doctoral thesis in 2014 on the same Faculty. He is
employed on Faculty of Engineering in Rijeka as Senior Assistant on
courses Thermodynamics 1, Thermodynamics 2, Heat Exchangers,
Thermodynamics of Mixtures, Numerical Methods in Design and Gas
Engineering. Within postgraduate study, he specialized on Istituto per le
Tecnologie della Costruzione (ITC-CNR) in Padova, Italy (2012). His area
of interests are heat exchangers, renewable energy sources, numerical
modeling in thermodynamics, thermotechnical systems of energy efficient buildings. He published
around 20 science and technical papers. He is a member of International Solar Energy Society -
ISES Europe, Freiburg. He was awarded with Rector's award (2008) and Hrvoje Požar award (2009) for notable master’s thesis in the field of energetics.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 16
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Andreja Hustić
Andreja Hustić graduated in 1998 on Faculty of Economics and Business in
Zagreb. On completion of her study, she starts working in Croatian Electricity
Company (HEP) in Directorate for Economic Affairs. Since March 2003, she is
on position of independent economist in Sector for development, where she
actively participated in several numerous projects (sustainable development of
energy sector, energy strategy, energy efficiency). Since July 2006, she is
employed in Croatian Transmission System Operator (HOPS) in Sector for
management of electrical power system and market as head of Department for
accounting of electricity. Key areas of her interests are electricity market, sustainable development
of energy sector, renewable energy sources, energy efficiency. She is a 3rd year PhD student on
postgraduate doctoral study Management of Sustainable Development of the University in Rijeka.
She is a member of Croatian national committee of International council on large electric systems
(HRO CIGRÉ). She published numerous papers on professional congress' and international
conferences.
Bruno Židov
Bruno Židov (born 8th June 1988) holds a Master Degree in Mechanical
Engineering from the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval
Architecture in Zagreb. He works at the Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar within the Department for Energy System Planning since 2012. His area of activity
within the Institute, among other things, includes energy systems modelling
and planning, energy consumption balance conduction, emissions from
energy systems calculation and sectoral evaluation of energy efficiency. He
actively participates in several European projects and has been leading
several projects related to sustainable energy development. Main focus of
multi-year research as PhD student at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval
Architecture has been analysis of the corrosion and degradation phenomena, the stability of the
material, the applicability of organic photovoltaics, etc. Additionally to his PhD study Bruno Židov is student at the postgraduate specialist study Economics of the energy sector at the Faculty of
Economics in Rijeka. He is a member of the Croatian Energy Association and the Croatian Society
for Materials Protection.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 17
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Marko Karan
Marko Karan holds MA in Economics and is permanently appointed to
senior consultant position at the Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, primarily covering and leading energy economics and finance consulting assignments.
With more than 8 years of professional experience he has been engaged in
more than 60 projects. Consulting assignments he has covered include: market
research, business strategy development, regulatory economics of energy
sector, project due diligence and investment appraisal, restructuring and
business process improvement, and development and implementation of
different financing options and mechanisms.
In past few years his focus is on renewable energy and energy efficiency projects which he
covered through assignments of regulatory economics, capacity building, project due diligence and
development and implementation of RES and EE finance facilities. In his carrier he has consulted
clients ranging from governments, ministries, governmental institutions and agencies, private and
national energy and utilities companies, private equity funds, international development
organizations (i.e. The World Bank Group, UNECE, UN – FAO, USAID), international financial
institutions (i.e. EBRD, EIB, KfW), private equity and investment funds, and commercial financial
institutions (i.e. Intesa Sanpaolo Group, Unicredit Group).
Jurica Brajković
Jurica Brajković is an economy expert with over ten years of experience in the energy sector. The main areas of Mr. Brajković's work are the economic and financial analysis in the energy sector. As an economy expert, Mr.
Brajković has participated in several projects in the areas of electricity, gas
and district heating sector for a variety of local and international clients.
Jurica Brajković gained his degree of Doctor of Science in Economics in
2010 on the University of Southampton (United Kingdom) and the title of
graduate in economics and a Master of Science in economics from Boston
University (USA) in 2001.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 18
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Igor Grozdanić
Igor Grozdanić, energy engineer and economist, finished a postgraduate study on Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering and
postgraduate study on Faculty of Economics and Business. He graduated
electrical energy studies on Faculty of Electrical Engineering. He is the CEO
and one of the owners of company Sunce i partneri d.o.o. He is working on
green energy supply, renewable energy and natural gas market projects. He is
working as a consultant on Eco Ltd. and Council of Europe projects.
As author and co-author, he published a dozen science and professional
papers abroad and in Croatia, in the field of energy and energy economy. He also participated in
drafting of several studies. In 2002, he received Hrvoje Požar award for his master’s thesis in the field of energy. He is an active memeber of HSUP and HSUSE. He speaks fluent English and
knows German.
Maja Pokrovac
Maja Pokrovac holds Master of Science title in Public policy and is
currently a student of a postgraduate specialist study Energy Economics.
In Croatian Employers' Association she established Energy Association
and Coordination for renewable energy sources which gathers entrepreneurs
and creates conditions for introducing a new meaning of entrepreneurs in
energy industry. The need to define and organize enterpreneurship in energy
sector through production and implementation of decentralized and distributed
production plants based on energy from renewable sources.
Maja takes the stance for public-private dialogue, the need for discussion/debate on energy
enterpreneurship and creating an environment for active access to renewable energy sources in
Croatia. In order to implement initiated projects in energy enterpreneurship, she works as an
advisor to Minister of enterpreneurship and crafts.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 19
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Mišo Mudrić
Dr. Sc. Mišo Mudrić works as Senior Assistant in Department of Maritime and Transport Law of Faculty of Law of University in Zagreb. He
holds classes Maritime and General Transport Law and Insurance Law. In
2007 he works as a collaborator on a scientific project „Croatian Transport Law and the Challenges of EU Single Market“. Since 2013 he works as a collaborator on international scientific project „MARSAFENET” in which he also participates as member of the Executive Committee. He is arbiter in
Permanent Elected Court at the Croatian Chamber of Economy. He is also
The Secretary General of the Croatian Association of Insurance Law and member of Governing
board of the same Association. At the same time he is a member of Croatian Association for
Insurance Law. He defended his doctoral disertation on Faculty of Law of University of Hamburg
and conducted his research on Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International
Law, Hamburg, Germany.
Vladimir Potočnik
Vladimir Potočnik was born in 1936 in Travnik. In 1960 graduated from
the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture in Zagreb,
where he won a master's degree in 1975. He was employed at the
Elektroprojekt, Zagreb from 1960 to 2001, where he participated in and led
more than one hundred projects in Croatia and abroad. He initiated a number
of projects in Croatia and participates in defining waste management strategy
and legislation in Croatia. He has published more than 80 papers in
professional publications and proceedings of the meetings. He is also the
author of two books. He is active in more professional associations for energy and environment.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 20
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 21
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Dr.sc. Goran Granić i suradnici
Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar
KLIMATSKA POLITIKA U UVJETIMA OTVORENOG TRŽIŠTA
Sažetak
U radu su opisani ciljevi i pristup analizi utjecaja klimatske politike na razvoj energetskog sektora.
Analiza je obuhvatila ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine, po sektorima i ukupno, uz
osvrt na proteklih 5-10 godina. Dana je analiza razvoja energetskih tržišta u uvjetima smanjenja emisija CO2, te analiza finalne potrošnje za RH u razdoblju do 2050 godine. Prezentirana je analiza mjera i načina provođenja mjera, te potencijala mjera za smanjenje emisija CO2. Dane su ocjene
ekonomsko-financijskih pokazatelja provođenja mjera. Posebno su analizirana ograničenja: tehnološka, energetska, ekonomska, organizacijska i institucionalna u realizaciji ciljeva smanjenja emisija CO2, kao i rizik u provođenju mjera. Važni dijelovi politike smanjenja emisija CO2 su:
tehnološki razvoj, očekivanja i mogući rizici ne ostvarivanja ciljeva. Važna pretpostavka realizacije planova smanjenja emisija CO2 je institucionalna organiziranost u kreiranju energetske politike i
provođenju mjera, u kojoj je značajna mjera formiranje Ministarstva energetike, zaštite okoliša i klimatskih promjena. Na kraju su dane preporuke temeljene na provedenoj analizi.
CLIMATE POLICY IN TERMS OF OPEN ENERGY MARKET
Abstract
This paper describes the objectives and approach to the climate policy impact analysis on the
development of energy sector. The analysis included the goals for CO2 emission reduction until
2050, by sectors and in total, with reference to last 5-10 years. The analysis of energy market
development in terms of CO2 emission reduction is given, and also the analysis of the final
consumption for Croatia in period until 2050. The analysis of measures, of the manner in which the
measures are carried out and of the potential of measures for CO2 emission reduction is presented.
Estimations of economic and financial indicators for measurement implementation are given.
Technological, energy, economic, organizational and institutional limitations are specifically
analysed as part of objectives realisation of CO2 emission reduction, as is the risk of measurement
implementation. The important parts of CO2 emission reduction policy are: technological
development, expectations and possible risks of not achieving the set objectives. The important
assumption of CO2 emission reduction objective realisation is institutional organisation of creation
of energy policy and measurement implementation, in which the important measure is the forming
of Ministry of energy, environment protection and climate change. At the end, recommendations
are given, based on the performed analysis.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 22
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Jacques de Jong
Clingendael International Energy Programme
GLAVNI IZAZOV POLITIKE EU U PODRUČJU KLIME I ENERGIJE
Sažetak
EU energetska politika suočava se s dva glavna izazova implementacije koncepta Energetske unije
o Transformacija energetskog sustava prema niskougljičnoj energetskoj ekonomiji o Upravljanje energetskim politikama EU, regionalne i nacionalne razine
· Problemi tranformacije:
o Tržišta i sustavi električne energije morat će se prilagoditi povećanoj količini OIE
§ Veliki utjecaji na tržište i zakonodavni nacrt § Operativni sustav mora postati presudni faktor
o Potrebna prerada energetskog sektora
§ Problem postojećih tvornica na konvencionalna goriva
§ Nova ravnoteža između ponude i potražnje
§ Uloga krajnjih korisnika
o Određeni konkretni unosi u rasprave na razini EU
· Problem upravljanja:
o Uloga EU naspram uloge regija i zemalja članica
§ EU razina
§ Regionalni pristupi
§ Nacionalne razine
o Određeni konkretni unosi u rasprave na razini EU
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 23
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
MAJOR EU POLICY CHALLENGE IN CLIMATE AND ENERGY
Abstract
EU energy policy faces two major challenges implementing the Energy Union concept
o The transformation of the energy system towards a low-carbon energy economy
o The governance of the energy policies at EU, regional and national levels
· The transformation issue:
o Electricity markets and systems will need to adapt increasing amounts of RES
§ Major impacts on market- and regulatory designs
§ System operation to become a critical factor
o The energy sector will need to re-invent itself
§ The issue of existing fossil fuel plants
§ The new balance between supply and demand
§ The role of end-consumers
o Some concrete inputs into the debate at EU-level
· The governance issue
o The role of the Union versus the roles of the regions and the member states
§ The EU level
§ The regional approaches
§ The national levels
o Some concrete inputs into the debate at EU level
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 24
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Jan Blomgren
INBEx
ENERGIJA, SIGURNOST I PROFITABILNOST – POZADINSKO RAZMIŠLJANJE
Sažetak
Energetska industrija je pod velikim financijskim pritiskom u većini Europe. To potiče strožu kontrolu cijene. Tradicionalni pristup u procjeni investicija podrazumijeva uporabu analiza
troškova i dobiti u svrhu izračuna profitabilnosti, u kombinaciji sa analizom rizika sa stanovišta sigurnosti. Analiza rizika je uglavnom temeljena na vjerojatnosti i posljedicama različitih potencijalnih nezgoda. Međutim, zaključili smo da ovaj pristup ima ograničenja u usporedbi s različitim tehnologijama proizvodnje. U ovom radu predstavljeno je razmišljanje o filozofskoj razlici između energetskih tehnologija u kojima jedna nezgoda može uništiti cijelu tvrtku (hidroenergetsku, nuklearnu) naspram onih koje nisu u opasnosti od izravnog gašenja (na fosilna
goriva, biogoriva, energiju vjetra). To ne utječe samo na ekonomiju i tehnologiju, već također na cjelokupni i sigurnosni menadžment. Bit će raspravljeno o uzajamnom djelovanju tehnoloških izazova i menadžmenta, naročito onih koji se odnose na apekt profitabilnosti te će biti korišteni primjeri tehnologija s visokim potencijalnim rizikom.
ENERGY, SAFETY AND PROFITABILITY – THE THINKING BEHIND
Abstract
The energy industry is under heavy financial pressure in large parts of Europe. This motivates an
even stricter cost control. The traditional approach in assessing investments is to use cost-benefit
analysis for the profitability, in combination with risk-informed analysis for safety aspects. Risk-
informed analysis is normally based on the probabilities and consequences of various potential
accidents. However, we have realized this approach has limitations in comparisons between
different production technologies. In this talk, some thinking about the philosophical difference
between energy technologies in which a single accident can wipe out the entire company (hydro,
nuclear) versus those not facing the same threat of immediate extinction (fossil, bio, wind) is
presented. This affects not only the economy and technology, but also the management in general
and safety management in particular. The interplay of technology challenges and management, in
particular concerning profitability aspects, will be developed and examples from technologies with
large potential risks will be used for illustration.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 25
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Florian Haslauer
A.T. Kearney Management Consultants
PROŠIRENI IZAZOVI EUROPSKE KLIMATSKE I ENERGETSKE POLITIKE
Sažetak
Tržišno pokretane klimatske i energetske politike su daleko učinkovitije nego politika pokretana propisima. Vrijeme je da EU promisli o svojoj energetskoj strategiji.
Svijet je razdoblju globalne energetske promjene, zbog činjenice da zemlje nastoje zadovoljiti rastuću potražnju promjenama unutar temelja svojih energetskih sektora. Očekuje se da će se svjetska energetska potražnja povećati za 1,4 % do 2030. godine, sa porastom potražnje električne energije (obnovljivi izvor) za više od 2 % tijekom tog perioda.
Europska Unija je u vodećoj poziciji u ovoj energetskoj promjeni, težeći ostvarenju triju klimatskih i energetskih ciljeva do 2020. godine: (1) smanjenju CO2 emisija, (2) povećanju obnovljivih izvora
energije i (3) povećanju energetske učinkovitosti. Većina zemalja uspijeva ostvariti prva dva cilja, ali se pokazalo da je ostvarenje trećeg cilja vrlo teško. Jedan od glavnih uzroka tome je nepostojanje jedinstvenog Europskog energetskog tržišta. Energetske politike i regulative su još uvijek vođene individualnim državama. Ukoliko se to nastavi, EU energetska promjena će imati visok trošak – cijene će narasti i to će imati loš utjecaj na svjetsku konkurentnost.
Vrijeme je da EU počne raditi kao jedinstvena zajednica i usvoji politiku pokretanu tržištem. Prednosti uključuju lakšu energetsku promjenu u rastućoj ekonomiji, sposobnost iskorištavanja veličine za konkurentniju cijenu energije i manje cijene za potrošače. U idealnom scenariju, EU cilj za smanjenje CO2 emisija je najvažniji, a zatim dolaze preostala dva – obnovljivi izvori energije i
energetska učinkovitost – koji se ponašaju kao poluga za ostvarenje glavnog cilja. U osnovi, tržište određuje koja su rješenja najučinkovitija.
Tržišno pokretana energetska strategija financirana je iz ovlaštenog tržišta CO2 emisija – kako bi se
dobili pravi cjenovni signali – ili pomoću CO2 poreza kako bi se dodijelile cjenovne vrijednosti
CO2 emisijama. Umjesto koncentriranja sredstava za tarife, sredstva su usmjerena prema
poboljšanju energetske učinkovitosti, istraživanju i razvoju obnovljivih izvora energije i pokrenutim pilot programima. Na taj način EU potiče inovacije i financiranje je daleko manje nego što se danas troši na obnovljive izvore energije.
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Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
EXTENDED CHALLENGES FOR THE EU’S CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY
Abstract
Market-driven climate and energy policies are far more effective than regulation-driven policies. It
is time for the EU to rethink its energy strategy.
The world is in the throes of a global energy transition as countries seek to meet rising demand by
fundamentally changing their energy sectors. Global energy demand is expected to increase by 1.4
percent through 2030, with demand for electricity (a renewable) rising by more than 2 percent
during this time period.
The European Union has been front and centre in this energy transition, seeking to meet three
climate and energy targets by 2020: (1) reduce CO2 emissions, (2) increase renewables, and (3)
become more energy efficient. Most countries are on track to meet the first two targets but meeting
the third one has proved to be more difficult. This is largely because there is no single European
power market. Energy policies and regulations are still driven by individual nations. If this
continues, the EU energy transition will be costly—prices will shoot up and global competitiveness
will suffer.
It’s time for the EU to work as one large entity and adopt market-driven policies. The advantages
include a smoother energy transition in a growing economy, ability to leverage size for more
competitive energy costs, and lower prices for consumers. In an ideal scenario, there is one
overriding EU target for reducing CO2 emissions, and then the other two—renewables and energy
efficiency—act as levers to meet that target. Essentially, the market decides which solutions are the
most efficient.
A market-driven energy strategy is funded from a CO2-emissions certificate market—to send the
right price signals—or a CO2 tax to allocate costs to CO2 emissions. Rather than concentrating
funds on feed in tariffs, funds are geared toward improving energy efficiency, research and
development of renewables and running pilot programs. In this way, the EU “incentivizes” innovation and funding is far less than what is spent today on renewables.
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Peter Jørgensen
Energinet.dk
ISKUSTVA DANSKOG OPERATORA PRIJENOSNOG SUSTAVA SA ŠIROKOM INTEGRACIJOM VJETROELEKTRANA
Sažetak
U 2014. godini, proizvodnja električne energije iz vjetroeletrana zadovoljavala je 39% domaće potražnje električne energije u Danskoj, a u 2020. godini će prijeći 50%. Ovaj rad opisuje razvoj danskog elektroenergetskog sustava i opisuje kako međunarodna rješenja temeljena na odvijanju na tržištu i fleksibilna proizvodnja omogućavaju Energinet.dk-u uravnotežavanje sustava. Rad će također uključiti i mogući scenarij danskog energetskog sustava potpuno neovisnog o fosilnim
gorivima do 2050. godine.
DANISH TSO EXPERIENCES WITH LARGE SCALE INTEGRATION OF WIND
POWER
Abstract
In 2014 the wind power generation in Denmark constituted 39% of the domestic electricity
demand, and in 2020 it will pass 50%. The presentation will describe the development of the
Danish electricity system and illustrate how market based international solutions and flexible
generators enable Energinet.dk to balance the system. The presentation will also include a possible
scenario for a fossil-fuel independent Danish energy system by 2050.
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Stefan Ulreich
E.ON SE
SIGURNOST OPSKRBE: PANEUROPSKI PRISTUP – PRILIKE I ZAHTJEVI VEĆE SURADNJE KROZ EUROPSKO TRŽIŠTE ELEKTRIČNE ENERGIJE
Sažetak
U prosincu 2014. godine, Weltenergierat – Deutschland e.V naručio je od tvrtke Prognos AG (Berlin/Basel) pripremu studije o potencijalnoj većoj suradnji europskih tržišta električne energije. Pažnja studije posvećena proučavanju do koje mjere bliska suradnja koja osigurava dostatnost proizvodnje energije, može dovesti do smanjenja cijena. Petnaest zemalja je analizirano: sedam članica Pentalateralnog energetskog foruma (PLEF: Austrija, Njemačka, Belgija, Francuska, Luksemburg, Nizozemska i Švicarska) i osam dodatnih graničnih zemalja (Poljska, Italija, Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo, Španjolska, Danska, Češka, Portugal i Irska).
Osiguravanje energetske dostatnosti danas se odvija na nacionalnoj razini, dok međunarodni utjecaji nisu uzeti u obzir. Međutim, ako su prekogranični utjecaji uzeti u obzir, na nacionalnoj razini dostatnost može biti olakšana, npr. vršna opterećenja u Europi se ne odvijaju istovremeno i ulazna energija iz obnovljivih izvora energije dolazi u različitim periodima. Dolazi do potencijalnih ušteda jer je potrebno osiguravanje manje kapaciteta iz konvencionalnih elektrana. Pokazatelj ušteda u studiji je tzv. preostalo opterećenje.
Studija je temeljena na analizama svih postojećih podataka koji su vezani uz satno opterećenje i ulaz energije iz obnovljivih izvora energije u periodu od 2009. do 2014. godine. Kao dodatak,
stvorena su dva scenarija (temeljena na Vision V1 i V3, ENTSO-E sustava Outlook and Adequacy
Forecast) i brojne osjetljivosti za 2030. godinu. Kako su rezultati jako ovisni o vremenskim
uvjetima, 48 simulacija energije vjetra (osjetljivost) dalo je široko područje rezultata. Zbog toga su korišteni rasponi za prezentaciju rezultata. Ovaj pristup čini studiju trenutno najopsežnijom analizom potencijala bliske suradnje s osvrtom na osiguravanje dostatnosti proizvodnje energije.
S pretpostavkom o nepostojanju zagušenja mreže, studija dolazi do sljedećih rezultata: • Smanjenje preostalog opterećenja: U suprotnosti sa shemom nacionalne procjene, pod
utjecajem ukupne sheme procjene, preostalo opterećenje će se smanjiti za 2 do 15 gigavata (najvjerojatnije između 8 i 10 gigavata u PLEF grupi zemalja) tijekom vremena vršnog opterećenja. U domeni cijele studije od 15 zemalja, preostalo opterećenje će se smanjiti za 15 do 50 gigavata (najvjerojatnije između 27 i 34 gigavata). • Vršna opterećenja pružaju najveći potencijal: Većina postojećeg potencijala dolazi iz vremenske razlike između vršnih opterećenja, što predstavlja potrebu za električnom energijom. U budućnosti, potencijal će se povećati velikim dijelom zbog širenja obnovljive energije, tj. opskrbe električne energije ovisne o vremenu. Doprinos prikazan opterećenjem (uravnotežena vršna opterećenja) će manje-više ostati stalan. • Pitanja geografskog opsega: Potencijal se značajno povećava kada se razmatra veća domena studije.
• Povećanje kapaciteta vjetra: Ovisno o scenariju, energija vjetra moći će pružiti pouzdan i dostupan kapacitet energije između najmanje 1,2 (V1) i 2,2 (V3) gigavata u PLEF regiji do 2030.
godine. Za cijelu domenu studije, to će biti ukupno između najmanje 9 (V1) i 13 (V3) gigavata. To
se podudara sa najmanje 1,3% instaliranog kapaciteta vjetra u PLEF-u, i više od 4% u cijeloj
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domeni studije. Međutim, danas se samo oko 1% kapaciteta vjetra smatra pouzdano dostupnim kapacitetom.
• Geografski opseg povećava uravnoteženje sustava: U 2030. godini, sa daljnjim širenjem obnovljivih izvora energije (V1), situacije sa suvišnom količinom energije događat će se u PLEF zemljama samo jednom u šest godina. U suprotnosti, to bi se događalo svake godine na nacionalnoj razini. Preostalo opterećenje za grupu zemalja u domeni studije bilo bi negativno za jedva nekoliko sati po godini u 2030. godini, uzimajući u obzir i snažno širenje obnovljivih izvora energije. To znači da bi do 2030. godine, čak i visoka količina suvišne energije iz obnovljivih mogla biti „zaprimljena“, bez potrebe za posrednom pohranom, ukoliko bi mreže dopustile takav prijelaz energije.
• Bolja tržišna integracija smanjuje troškove, poboljšava dostatnost proizvodnje i odgađa potrebu za pohranom: Ako se potencijal za smanjenje preostalog opterećenja može ostvariti, tada postoji manja potreba za velikim kapacitetima elektrana. Spremnici za čuvanje viška energije bili bi potrebni tek u kasnijim periodima, ako su neophodni. Ova oba faktora mogu rezultirati sa
smanjenjem potrošnje. Potencijalne uštede treba usporediti sa širenjem mreže i troškovima prijenosa povezanim s ukupnom procjenom dostatne proizvodnje energije. Sveobuhvatna procjena
troškova i koristi treba uzeti u obzir bilo kakvo povećanje u učinkovitosti proizvodnje energije do koje dolazi zbog poboljšanja uporabe elektrana.
Sljedeći zahtjevi su potrebni kako bi se ostvario potencijal: • Prekogranične metode procjene dostatnosti proizvodnje energije trebaju biti podrobnije razvijene kao dodatak nacionalnim pristupima
• Međunarodno usklađivanje procesa procjene dostatne proizvodnje energije. To također utječe na pravne i organizacijske aspekte osiguravanja dostatne proizvodnje energije.
• Pouzdan prekogranični kapacitet za osiguravanje domaće sigurnosti opskrbe. Strane odgovorne za sigurnost opskrbe na nacionalnoj razini trebaju obvezno jamstvo pri osiguravanju
domaće potražnje sa prekograničnim kapacitetom. • Razvoj izvanmrežne strukture potrebne uz postojeću planiranu (npr. desetogodišnji plan razvoja prijenosne mreže), uzimajući u obzir skupne učinke. Pritom je potrebno uzeti u obzir prepreke, kao i troškove transformacije i transakcije. Iste je teško kvantificirati, ali imaju veliku ulogu u praksi.
Sljedeće preporuke su predložene u studiji: • Usklađivanje standarda i procesa: Zajedničke definicije sigurnosti opskrbe, koordiniran proces procjene dostatnosti proizvodnje energije i osigurana preogranična dostatnost proizvodnje energije mogu pridonijeti ostvarenju plana domaćeg tržišta, čak i ako je stvarne uštede i zahtijevane cijene teško odrediti. Prijedlog je da se ove faktore uzme u obzir u dizajnu tržišta električne energije.
• Pregled procjene kapaciteta energije vjetra bio bi preporučljiv, kako bi se povećao njegov potencijal u prekograničnim procjenama dostatnosti proizvodnje energije. • Regionalna suradnja (npr. u PLEF regiji) može postići brze „pobjede“, koje su potrebne za shvaćanje izvještenih pozitivnih potencijala usklađivanja. Ova suradnja može biti postupno proširena na veće regije.
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SECURITY OF SUPPLY: A PAN-EUROPEAN APPROACH – THE OPPORTUNITIES
AND REQUIREMENTS OF GREATER COOPERATION ACROSS EUROPEAN
ELECTRICITY MARKETS
Abstract
In December 2014, Prognos AG (Berlin/Basel) was commissioned by the Weltenergierat –
Deutschland e.V to prepare a study on the potential of greater cooperation across European
electricity markets. The focus of the analysis was to address the extent to which closer cooperation
on ensuring generation adequacy can lead to cost reductions. Fifteen countries were analysed:
seven members of the Pentalateral Energy Forum (PLEF, DE, BE, NL, LU, FR, AT & CH) and
eight additional bordering countries (PL, IT, UK, ES, DK, CZ, PT & IE).
Today, ensuring generation adequacy takes place at a national level and international effects are not
taken into account. However, if cross-border effects are considered adequacy considerations at a
national level can be relieved, e.g.: load peaks in Europe do not occur simultaneously and the feed-
in from renewable energy takes place at different times. Potential savings arise, as less capacity
needs to be secured by conventional power plants. An indicator for this in the present study is the
so-called residual load.
The study is based on analyses of all existing data relating to hourly load and feed-in from
renewable energy for the period from 2009 to 2014. In addition, two scenarios (based on Visions
V1 and V3 of ENTSO-E’s System Outlook and Adequacy Forecast) and numerous sensitivities for
2030 were generated. As the variability of the results is highly dependent on weather conditions, 48
simulations of wind power (sensitivities) established a broad corridor of results. For this reason,
ranges are used in the presentation of results. The approach makes this study the most
comprehensive analysis to date of the potential of closer cooperation with respect to ensuring
generation adequacy.
With the assumption of no grid congestion, the study reaches the following results:
• Reduction of residual load: In contrast to a national assessment scheme, under a collective
assessment scheme the residual load will reduce by 2 to 15 gigawatts (most likely between 8 to 10
gigawatts in the PLEF group of countries) during peak hours. In the entire study domain of 15
countries the residual load will reduce by 15 to 50 gigawatts (most likely between 27 to 34
gigawatts).
• Load peaks offer largest potential: The majority of the potential existing today comes from
the time difference between load peaks, representing the demand for electricity. In future, the
potential will increase largely due to the expansion of renewable energy, i.e. the weather-
dependent supply of electricity. The contribution presented by load (balancing load peaks) will
more or less remain constant.
• Geographic scope matters: The potential increases significantly when considering a larger
study domain.
• Capacity credit for wind increases: Depending on the scenario, wind power will be able to
provide reliable available capacity of between at least 1.2 (V1) and 2.2 (V3) gigawatts in the PLEF
region by 2030. For the entire study domain, this will total between at least 9 (V1) to 13 (V3)
gigawatts. This corresponds to at least 1.3 % of the installed wind capacity in the PLEF, and more
than 4 % for the entire study domain. In contrast, only around 1 % of wind capacity is regarded as
reliable available capacity today.
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• Geographic scope increases system balance: In 2030, with the further expansion of
renewables (V1), excess feed-in situations would occur in the PLEF in only one in six years. By
way of contrast, this would occur every year at the national level. The residual load of the group of
countries in the study domain would be negative for barely any hours per year in 2030, even
considering the strong expansion of renewables. This means that by 2030, even a high feed-in from
renewables could be “taken in” without the need for intermediate storage if the networks were to allow such electricity transmission.
• Better market integration reduces costs, improves generation adequacy and postpones the
need for storage: If the potential to reduce residual load could be realised, then less power plant
capacity would have to be reserved. Storage to take in excess energy would be necessary only at a
later date, if required. Both of these factors can result in cost reductions. Potential savings would
need to be compared with the network expansion and transaction costs associated with collective
generation adequacy assessment. Comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits should
however also take into consideration any gains in the efficiency of electricity generation arising
from improved usage of power plants.
The following requirements are necessary to achieve this potential:
• Cross-border methods of generation adequacy assessment need to be further developed in
addition to national approaches
• International harmonisation of generation adequacy assessment processes. This also
impacts the legal and organisational aspects of ensuring generation adequacy.
• Reliable cross border capacity to ensure domestic security of supply. Parties responsible for
security of supply at a national level need a binding guarantee when securing domestic demand
with cross-border capacity.
• Development of grid infrastructure needed alongside the existing planning (e.g. TYNDP),
while giving group effects even more consideration.
In doing so, obstacles as well as transformation and transaction costs need to be considered. These
can be difficult to quantify, but play an important role in practice.
We have arrived at the following recommendations based on the study:
• Harmonisation of standards and processes: Common definitions of security of supply, a
coordinated process of generation adequacy assessment and a guarantee of cross-border generation
adequacy can contribute to the realisation of a domestic market design, even if the actual costs
savings and required costs are difficult to determine. We recommend that these factors be taken
into account in electricity market design.
• Review of the evaluation of wind power capacity would be advisable, to increase its
potential of reliable available capacity in the cross-border generation adequacy assessment.
• Regional cooperation (e.g. in the PLEF region) can achieve quick wins which are needed to
realise the reported upside potentials of harmonisation. This cooperation can be incrementally
extended to larger regions.
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Marko Senčar
Agencija za suradnju energetskih regulatora
EU ENERGETSKO TRŽIŠTE I REGULACIJE ULAZE U NOVI ZAKONSKI OKVIR: ENERGETSKA ZAJEDNICA
Sažetak
Energetska unija pruža novi zakonski okvir za tržište i regulaciju. Ovaj doprinos uzima u obzir svoje glavne elemente (dimenzije), naročito rad energetskog tržišta. Energetska unija dodaje neke nove žarišne točke svom razvoju, npr. istraživanje i inovacije, kao dodatak održivosti. Energetska unija također ima kao cilj poboljšanje klijentove pozicije na tržištu, te utire put učinkovitom poboljšanju u regulacijama i praćenju tržišta na europskoj razini. Tri aspekta potencijalnih budućih poboljšanja su razmotrena o tome kako postojeća Agencija za suradnju energetskih regulatora mogu dalje pridonijeti radu učinkovitog tržišta i implementaciji planirane investicije u
infrastrukturu.
Stavovi izraženi u ovom radu autorovi su osobni stavovi, koji ne odražavaju nužno stavove Agencije za
suradnju energetskih regulatora, niti se mogu pripisati tom poduzeću. Agencija za suradnju energetskih
regulatora ne jamči točnost podataka i informacija prikazanih u ovom članku i ne prihvaća nikakvu
odgovornost za posljedice njihove upotrebe.
EU ENERGY MARKET AND REGULATION ENTER A NEW FRAMEWORK: ENERGY
UNION
Abstract
Energy Union provides a new framework for market and regulation. This contribution discusses its
main elements (dimensions), in particular energy market functioning. Energy Union adds some
new focal points to its development, e.g. research and innovation, in addition to sustainability.
Energy Union also aims at improving customers’ position on the market, and paves the way for efficiency enhancements in regulation and market monitoring at European level. Three aspects of
potential future improvements are discussed how the existing Agency for the Cooperation of
Energy Regulators may further contribute to the efficient market functioning and implementation
of planned infrastructure investment.
The views expressed in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, or of any of its bodies. The Agency for the Cooperation of
Energy Regulators does not guarantee the accuracy of any data and information included in this article and
accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.
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Philip Lewis
VaasaETT
PODRŽAVANJE OBVEZNOG, NE POTICANJE NEPRAKTIČNOG
Sažetak
Uključivanje kućanstava u zeleniju i energetski učinkovitiju budućnost je opcija koja će sve više biti pokretana inovacijama, tehnologijama i novim poslovnim modelima umjesto naporima ili
ograničenjima energetske industrije. Potrošači će prihvaćati sve ponude koje su privlačne i iz kojih
će dobivati najviše za uloženo. No, energetska industrija mora podržavati tehnologije i modele u njihovim razvojnim fazama, bez prekomjernog podržavanja bezuspješnih projekata. Potrebne su podupirući zakoni i kvalitetne edukacije potrošača te njihova informiranost. Također je potrebno omogućiti i pomoći potrošačima u njihovom putovanju. Sve navedeno zahtijeva investicije, ali dugoročno će potrošači, društvo i okoliš imati veliku korist.
SUPPORTING THE INEVITABLE, NOT PUSHING THE IMPRACTICAL
Abstract
Engaging household customers in a greener and more energy efficient future is one which will be
driven more by innovation in technologies and new business models than by the efforts or
restrictions of the energy industry. Where there is a compelling benefit from an offering, it will be
adopted by consumers. But the energy industry needs to support the technology and models in their
early stages, without excessively supporting fruitless developments. We need facilitating
regulations and outstanding customer education and awareness, and we need to enable and assist
customers in their journey. All of this will require investment but in the long term the customer,
society and the environment will benefit.
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Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Maja Božičević Vrhovčak, Ivana Rogulj
Društvo za oblikovanje održivog razvoja
EMISIJE CO2 U HRVATSKOJ 2050. GODINE: KOJI JE PUT U NISKOUGLJIČNU BUDUĆNOST?
Sažetak
Članak se bavi emisijama ugljičnog dioksida iz sektora energetike u Republici Hrvatskoj do 2050. godine. Na temelju projekcija potrošnje i proizvodnje energije te pridruženih emisija CO2 za sve
sektore, izrađena je interaktivna platforma koja na jednostavan način omogućava upoznavanje s
posljedicama koje pojedine odluke imaju na ukupne emisije stakleničkih plinova. Razvijeni alat omogućava jednostavnu usporedbu različitih razvojnih opcija s aspekta emisije CO2 te predstavlja
važan alat za razumijevanje kompleksnosti tranzicije u niskougljično društvo. Podloge i platforma razvijeni su u okviru IPA projekta South East Europe Sustainable Energy Policy koji se provodi od
2011. do 2016. godine.
CO2 EMISSIONS IN CROATIA IN 2050: WHAT IS THE PATHWAY TO A LOW-
CARBON FUTURE?
Abstract
The article deals with carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector in the Republic of Croatia
by 2050. Based on the projections of energy supply and demand of all consumption sectors and
corresponding CO2 emissions, an interactive platform was developed that clearly connects
consequences of certain decisions and choices and the total greenhouse gas emissions. The
developed tool allows for simple comparisons of different development options in terms of CO2
emissions and is an important tool for understanding the complexity of the transition to a low
carbon society. Input data were collected and the platform was developed under the IPA project
South East Europe Sustainable Energy Policy, which is being implemented from 2011 to 2016.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 35
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Goran Majstrović, Matislav Majstrović, Elis Sutlović
Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar
OČEKIVANI BUDUĆI UVJETI OČUVANJA SIGURNOG POGONA SUSTAVA S VELIKOM RAZINOM INTEGRACIJE OIE
Sažetak
Energetska strategija EU snažno je usmjerena prema velikoj integraciji obnovljivih izvora energije.
Najdominantniji dio ovdje je preuzet od različitih izvora - vjetroelektrana. Mrežna integracija povremenih izvora uz održavanje sustava stabilnim i sigurnim jedan je od najvećih izazova za operatore. Ovaj dio je često zanemaren od strane energetske politike, tako da se ovaj rad bavi
očekivanim budućim uvjetima sigurnog elektroenergetskog sustava sa velikom integracijom vjetroelektrana. Dan je pregled očekivanog razvoja integracije vjetroelektrana u EU, kao i očekivanim potrebama P/f regulacije i potrebe za kontrolom. Rad se zaključuje s nekoliko preporuka.
EXPECTED FUTURE CONDITIONS FOR SECURE POWER SYSTEM OPERATION
WITH LARGE SCALE OF RES INTEGRATION
Abstract
EU energy strategy is strongly focused on the large scale integration of renewable energy sources.
The most dominant part here is taken by variable sources - wind power plants. Grid integration of
intermittent sources along with keeping the system stable and secure is one of the biggest
challenges for the TSOs. This part is often neglected by the energy policy makers, so this paper
deals with expected future conditions for secure power system operation with large scale wind
integration. It gives an overview of expected wind integration development in EU, as well as
expected P/f regulation and control needs. The paper is concluded with several recommendations.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 36
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Bernard Franković, Paolo Blecich, Andreja Hustić
Tehnički fakultet Sveučilišta u Rijeci; Hrvatski operator prijenosnog sustava d.o.o.
UTJECAJ UVOĐENJA OBNOVLJIVIH IZVORA ENERGIJE NA ODRŽIVI RAZVOJ ENERGETSKIH SUSTAVA REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE S OSVRTOM NA EMISIJE
STAKLENIČKIH PLINOVA
Sažetak
Između političkih ciljeva i stvarnih mogućnosti u Republici Hrvatskoj trenutno postoji veliki raskorak, ponajviše zbog aktualne gospodarske situacije. Stoga je opisanoj problematici zamjene
konvencionalnih izvora energije obnovljim izvorima potrebno pristupiti krajnje oprezno,
promatrajući energetske ali vrednujući ponajprije ekološke i ekonomske pokazatelje. Potrebno je obuhvatiti sve specifičnosti elektroenergetskog sustava Republike Hrvatske i analizirati dosadašnji utjecaj implementacije obnovljivih izvora energije na razvoj elektoenergetskog sektora i ekonomski
rast Republike Hrvatske. Potrebno je ispitati da li je i u kojoj mjeri implementacija obnovljivih
izvora energije imala ekološki efekt (smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova), procijeniti vanjske troškove koji bi mogli nastati zbog daljnjih promjena strukture sustava uslijed povećanja udjela intermitentnih izvora energije, te procijeniti optimalnu dinamiku za daljnu provedbu poticajnih
mjera za OIE projekte u Republici Hrvatskoj s obzirom na njene trenutne energetske potencijale.
Iznimno je bitno ispitati spremnost i kapacitete sustava zemalja regije (BiH, Crna Gora, Mađarska i Srbija) da kompenziraju varijacije nastale uslijed primjene intermitentnih izvora energije. Kako se
ovakav način kompenzacije može provesti stvaranjem zajedničkoj energetskog tržišta koje je u planu EU, potrebno je ispitati i sagledati mogućnosti i opasnosti na koje Republika Hrvatska može
naići. Osobito je zanimljivo potencijalno smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova uvođenjem obnovljivih izvora energije čime bi Hrvatska mogla postati konkurentnija pri trgovanju emisijama stakleničkih plinova. Naposljetku potrebno je u radu sagledati koliki je udio i koje su mogućnosti malih proizvođača obnovljive energije (do 35 kW instalirane snage), a koji napajaju mrežu distribucije
Ovakva detaljna analiza trebala bi u konačnici dati zaključak o tome koliko aktualne mjere doprinose održivom razvoju energetskog sektora u Republici Hrvatskoj, te dati uvid u daljnje mjere
kojima bi se osiguralo isto.
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Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 37
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
INFLUENCE OF IMPLEMENTATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ON
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGETIC SYSTEM OF THE REPUBLIC OF
CROATIA WITH A FOCUS ON GREENHOUSE GASES
Abstract
Between political objectives and real possibilities in the moment, there is a large gap, mainly
because of the current economic situation. Therefore, the described problems of replacing
conventional energy sources renewable sources must be approached with extreme caution,
watching valuing energy but primarily environmental and economic indicators. It is necessary to
address all the specifics of the Croatian electricity system and to analyse the impact of the
implementation of renewable energy on the development of the power sector and the economic
growth of the Croatian. It is necessary to examine whether and to what extent the implementation
of renewable energy sources have environmental effects (reduction of greenhouse gas emissions),
to estimate the external costs that may arise due to further changes in the structure of the system
due to the increasing share of intermittent energy sources, and to estimate the optimal schedule for
further implementation of incentive measures for renewable energy projects in the Republic of
Croatia in terms of its current energy resources. It is extremely important to examine the readiness
and capacity of the system of countries in the region (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro,
Hungary and Serbia) to compensate for variations resulting from the application of intermittent
energy sources. How does this kind of compensation can be carried out by creating a common
energy market that is in regard to the EU, it is necessary to examine and assess the possibilities and
dangers that the Republic of Croatia may encounter. Particularly interesting is the potential
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by introducing renewable energy which Croatia could
become more competitive in trading greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, it is necessary to work to
look at what proportion and what are the possibilities of small producers of renewable energy (up
to 35 kW of installed capacity), and that power distribution network
Such a detailed analysis should ultimately give a conclusion on how current measures contribute to
sustainable development of the energy sector in the Republic of Croatia, and provide insight into
further measures to ensure the same.
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Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 38
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Bruno Židov, Jurica Brajković, Marko Karan
Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar
POTENCIJAL SMANJENJA EMISIJA OBNOVOM VOZNOG PARKA U HRVATSKOJ
Sažetak
Europska unija identificirala je karakteristična područja primjene mjera za suzbijanje emisija onečišćujućih tvari u zrak. Cestovni promet prepoznat je kao najveći onečišćivač okoliša te je
porast emisije CO2 upravo najteže suzbiti u toj vrsti prometa. Promatrajući projicirani trend smanjenja emisije u Republici Hrvatskoj, jasno je vidljivo da će za postizanje minimalnih ciljeva do 2050. godine, koje predlaže Europska unija, biti potrebna implementacija vrlo jakih mjera u
nadolazećem razdoblju. Predmetni cilj referata odnosi se na analizu potencijalnog smanjenja emisije onečišćujućih tvari koje generiraju osobna vozila registrirana u Hrvatskoj, pod pretpostavkom provođenja mjere koja će rezultirati tehnološkom obnovom voznog parka na nacionalnoj razini. Sumarno gledajući, osobna vozila prije Euro 1 standarda, Euro 1 i Euro 2 standarda zajedno emitiraju gotovo 40 posto svih ostvarenih CO2 emisija osobnih vozila registriranih u Hrvatskoj. Uz
pretpostavku zamjene svih osobnih vozila do uključujući Euro 2, sa Euro 6 vozilima, te uvažavajući određene pretpostavke, kvantificirana su potencijalna smanjenja emisije NOx, CO, CH4
i čestica. Potencijal smanjenja emisije NOx iznosi oko 3.061 tonu, CO oko 14.482 tone, CH4 iznosi
oko 114 tona te čestica PM10 i PM2,5 oko 257 tona. Ovisno o snazi motora, zamjenom tipičnog benzinskog vozila starog 20 godina sa novim, bez promjene režima vožnje, mogu se ostvariti godišnje uštede do 209 litara benzinskog goriva,
odnosno smanjiti emisija CO2 do 475 kg godišnje (sukladno pretpostavkama opisanim u referatu). Sa zamjenom dizelskih vozila pod istim pretpostavkama mogu ostvariti uštede do 311 litara dizelskog goriva godišnje, odnosno smanjiti emisiju CO2 do 815 kg godišnje.
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Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 39
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL WITH THE RENEWAL OF THE VEHICLE
FLEET IN CROATIA
Abstract
The European Union has identified the typical areas of application of measures to tackle the
problem of pollutants emissions into the air. Road transport is recognized as the largest polluter of
the environment and an increase in CO2 emissions is most difficult to suppress in this type of
transport. Looking at the projected trend of emission reductions in Croatia, it is clear that for
achieving the minimum targets by 2050, as proposed by the European Union, implementation of
the very strong measures in the coming period will be inevitable.
The main aim of the paper refers to the analysis of potential emission reduction of pollutants
generated by passenger vehicles registered in Croatia, assuming the implementation of measures
that will result in technological renewal of the fleet at the national level.
Generally considering, passenger cars before the Euro 1 standard, Euro 1 and Euro 2 standards
together emit nearly 40 percent of all CO2 emissions generated by passenger cars registered in
Croatia. Assuming replacement of all cars up to and including Euro 2, with Euro 6 vehicles, and
taking into account certain assumptions, the potential reductions in emissions of NOx, CO, CH4 and
particles were quantified. The potential reduction in NOx emissions is approximately 3,061 tons, in
CO emissions approximately 14,482 tons, in CH4 approximately 114 tons and in particulate matter
approximately 257 tons.
Depending on the engine size, with the replacement of the typical gasoline 20 years old passenger
vehicle with the new one, without changing the driving mode, annual savings of up to 209 liters of
gasoline fuel and reduction of CO2 emissions by 475 kg could be achieved (according to the
assumptions described in the paper). With the replacement of diesel vehicles under the same
conditions, the savings of up to 311 liters of diesel fuel annually and reduction of CO2 emissions by
815 kg could be achieved.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 40
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Igor Grozdanić, Maja Pokrovac
Sunce i partneri d.o.o.; Ministarstvo poduzetništva i obrta
NOVI POSLOVNI MODELI OPSKRBE ZELENOM ENERGIJOM NA TRŽIŠTU ENERGIJE S UČINCIMA NA SMANJENJE CO2
Sažetak
U ovom radu prikazat će se novi poslovni modeli za obnovljive izvore energije koji su pronašli svoj put do tržišne konkurentnosti i koji svakim danom postaju sve zastupljeniji na energetskim tržištima zemalja EU. Ova tranzicija osim prelaska na ekološku i dugoročno održiviju proizvodnju energije sa sobom je donijela još jednu promjenu koja je puno značajnija za društvo. Stvaraju se novi poslovni modeli ulaganja u obnovljive izvore energije koji energetiku približavaju građanima. Poduzetnici, energetske zadruge, i ostalo stanovništvo okupljeno u različite oblike udruživanja u svome vlasništvu u Njemačkoj drže preko 50% obnovljivih izvora energije.Takvi modeli investiranja u obnovljive izvore energije su bitni za društvo u cjelini zbog razvoja održivijeg i pravednijeg društva gdje se građani uključuju i u proizvodnju električne energije, a kroz ovakve
modele smanjuje se i cijena električne energije za krajnje korisnike. Osim direktnog zajedničkog ulaganja sredstava građana ovakvi projekti financijski su podržani i kroz financijske instrumente EU, ali i kroz posebne oblike banaka, kao što su primjerice okolišne ili etične banke. Ovi poslovni modeli su dugoročno prihvatljivi na tržištu i zbog sve većeg učešća obnovljivih izvora energije što u konačnici ima i smanjenje emisija CO2. U radu će biti prikazani europski modeli, i mogući modeli koji bi se primjenili u Republici Hrvatskoj.
NEW BUSINESS MODELS OF GREEN ENERGY SUPPLY ON THE ENERGY MARKET
WITH THE EFFECTS OF REDUCTION OF CO2
Abstract
In this paper, new business models for renewables, which found their way to market
competitiveness and which become more present on energy markets in EU, will be shown.
This transition, beside transition to ecological and, in the long-term, more sustainable production of
energy, brought another change which has far more importance for society. New business models
for investments in renewables which bring energy industry closer to citizens are being developed.
Entrepreneurs, energy cooperatives and public grouped in various forms of associations in
Germany own over 50% of renewables. Such investment models are important for society because
of the development of more sustainable and just society in which citizens are included in
production of electricity. Also, through these models, price of electricity is lower for end-users.
Besides direct collective fund investments from citizens, these types of projects are financially
supported through financial instruments of the EU, but also through special bank types, such as
environmental and ethical banks.
These business models are long-term acceptable because of increasing involvement of renewables
which results in reduction of CO2. In this paper, European models and possible models which could
be used in Croatia are shown.
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Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 41
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Mišo Mudrić
Pravni fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu
PRAVNI OKVIR ISTRAŽIVANJA I EKSPLOATACIJE UGLJIKOVODIKA U
HRVATSKOM DIJELU JADRANA
Sažetak
Kao uvod propisu o aktivnostima morskog istraživanja i eksploatacije u hrvatskom dijelu Jadrana, novi Zakon o rudarstvu i Zakon o istraživanju i eksploataciji ugljikovodika pružaju općeniti zakonski okvir za istraživanje i eksploataciju prirodnih izvora. Zakon o istraživanju i eksploataciji ugljikovodika također uspostavlja nezavisno regulatorno tijelo, Agenciju za ugljikovodike. Važno je napomenuti Uredbu o naknadi za istraživanje i eksploataciju ugljikovodika i Pravilnik o bitnim
tehničkim zahtjevima, sigurnosti i zaštiti pri istraživanju i eksploataciji ugljikovodika iz podmorja Republike Hrvatske, koji su od velike važnosti za trenutne aktivnosti s obzirom na predloženi projekt istraživanja i eksploatacije hrvatskih voda u potrazi za ležištima nafte i plina.
Agencija za ugljikovodike objavila je Stratešku studiju o vjerojatno značajnom utjecaju na okoliš Okvirnog plana i programa istraživanja i eksploatacije ugljikovodika na Jadranu, dokument koji je primio mnogo kritika od strane stručnjaka i javnosti. U isto vrijeme, stručnjaci teže podržavanju općenite ideje istraživanja i eksploatacije morskog dna, no s velikim otporom od strane javnosti, s čije je strane pokrenuto nekoliko inicijativa koje predstavljaju mogućnost javnih referenduma koje
se protive istraživanju i eksploataciji morskog dna.
Vlada trenutno priprema Zakon o sigurnosti pri odobalnom istraživanju i eksploataciji ugljikovodika, temeljen na Direktivi 94/22/EC Europskog parlamenta i Vijeća iz 30. svibnja 1994.
godine, o uvjetima za dopuštanje i korištenje ovlaštenja za ispitivanje, istraživanje i eksploataciju ugljikovodika, Komisije za provedbu uredbi (EU), broj 1112/2014 od 30. listopada 2014. godine,
koja određuje uobičajen format za dijeljenje informacija o opasnim indikatorima za operatore i
vlasnike odobalnih plinskih i naftnih instalacija i uobičajeni format za objavljivanje informacija o opasnim pokazateljima za zemlje članice, i Direktive 2013/30/EU Europskog parlamenta i Vijeća od 12. srpnja 2013. godine o sigurnosti odobalnih plinskih i naftnih operacija, koja dopunjuje
Direktivu 2004/35/EC. Okvirni plan i program istraživanja i eksploatacije ugljikovodika na Jadranu predviđa 29 istraživačkih područja te je 10 tvrtki nedavno dobilo dozvolu za početak istraživanja 10 područja. U skladu sa Zakonom o istraživanju i eksploataciji ugljikovodika, trajanje
eksploatacijskog ciklusa postavljeno je na 25 godina, sa mogućnošću daljnjeg produživanja. Nadalje, dvije hrvatske luke, koje su otvorene za međunarodni promet (luka Ploče i luka Rijeka), ciljane su kao potencijalni logistički centri za planirane odobalne aktivnosti.
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Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
REGULATORY FRAMEWORK ON EXPLORATION AND EXPLOITATION OF
CROATIAN PART OF ADRIATIC
Abstract
As the prelude to the regulation of marine exploration and exploitation activities in the Croatian
Adriatic waters, the new Mining Act and Act on exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons have
provided a general legal framework for the natural resources exploration and exploitation. The
latter Act also appropriated the establishment of the independent regulatory body, the Hydrocarbon
Agency. It is important to mention the Decree on Fees for exploration and production of
hydrocarbons, and the Decree on main technical requirements on safety and security of offshore
exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the Republic of Croatia, that are of special relevance
for the current activities with regard the proposed project of exploration and exploitation of the
Croatian waters in search for gas and oil sea-bed deposits.
The Hydrocarbon Agency has published the Strategic Study of the Likely Significant
Environmental Impact of the Framework Plan and Program of Exploration and Production of
Hydrocarbons in the Adriatic, a document receiving a lot of criticism from the legal experts and
general public. At the same time, the experts tend to support the general idea of sea-bed exploration
and exploitation, with the major antagonism still being present in the general public, with several
initiatives introducing the possibility of a public referenda to oppose the sea-bed exploration and
exploitation.
The Government is currently preparing the Act on the Safety of Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploration
and Production Operations, based on the Directive 94/22/EC of the European Parliament and of the
Council of 30th May 1994 on the conditions for granting and using authorizations for the
prospection, exploration and production of hydrocarbons, the Commission Implementing
Regulation (EU) No 1112/2014 of 13th October 2014 determining a common format for sharing of
information on major hazard indicators by the operators and owners of offshore oil and gas
installations and a common format for the publication of the information on major hazard
indicators by the Member States, and the Directive 2013/30/EU of the European Parliament and of
the Council of 12th June 2013 on safety of offshore oil and gas operations and amending Directive
2004/35/EC. The General Framework (Plan and Program) of Exploration and Exploitation of
Hydrocarbons in the Adriatic envisages 29 exploration fields, and 10 companies have recently been
granted a license to initiate the exploration of 10 exploration fields. In accordance with the Act on
exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons, the duration of exploitation cycle is set to 25 years,
with the possibility of further extension. In addition, two Croatian maritime ports open for
international trade (the Port of Ploče and the Port of Rijeka) have been centered out as the potential logistics ports for the planned offshore activities.
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Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 43
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
Vladimir Potočnik
HED, Zagreb
ZAŠTITA KLIME I ZAPOŠLJAVANJE U HRVATSKOJ
Sažetak
Među najtežim problemima Hrvatske su visoka nezaposlenost i zaštita klime s ublažavanjem posljedica klimatskih promjena. Ta dva problema usko su povezana, a glavna poveznica je
energetika kao najveći uzročnik klimatskih promjena zbog emisija stakleničkih plinova od izgaranja fosilnih goriva. Najvažnije mjere zaštite klime u energetici su povećanje energetske
Efikasnosti (ENEF) i davanje prednosti projektima obnovljivih izvora energije (OIE) pred
projektima izgaranja fosilnih goriva.
Osim što projekti ENEF i OIE doprinose zaštiti klime i ublažavanju posljedica klimatskih promjena, oni imaju i niz drugih prednosti pred projektima izgaranja fosilnih goriva. To je
ponajprije veća specifična domaća zaposlivost investicija ENEF i OIE u odnosu na fosilna goriva.
Usto se time smanjuje uvoz fosilnih goriva, što popravlja vanjskotrgovinsku bilancu i smanjuje inozemni dug Hrvatske, te povećava energetsku sigurnost.
Široj primjeni ENEF i OIE suprotstavljene su brojne prepreke, kao npr. otpor dobavljača energije, kojima širenje ENEF i OIE smanjuje prodaju energije i prihode. Postoji više metoda svladavanja takvih prepreka.
Države, koje su ENEF i OIE stavile u fokus energetske politike, lakše i brže izlaze iz krize uz najmanje stope nezaposlenosti.
Bez obzira na rezultate COP21 u Parizu u prosincu 2015. godine, Hrvatskoj bi se isplatila
orijentacija na ubrzani razvoj i primjenu ENEF i OIE.
HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka
Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama
HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 44
Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)
CLIMATE PROTECTION AND EMPLOYMENT IN CROATIA
Abstract
One of the largest problem in Croatia are high rate of unemployment and climate protection with
mitigation of consequences from climate changes. These two problems are closely related and the
main connection is energy industry, as the largest cause of climate change because of greenhouse
gases emissions from fossil fuels combustion. The most important measures of climate protection
in energy industry are increase in energy efficiency (ENEF) and giving priority to renewable
energy sources (RES) projects over fossil fuels combustion projects.
Other than contributing to climate protection and mitigating the consequences from climate
changes, ENEF and RES have other advantages over fossil fuel combustion projects. That is
notably larger specific domestic employability of investment in ENEF and RES, regarding fossil
fuels. Moreover, the import of fossil fuels is reduced, which fixes foreign trade balance sheet and
reduces Croatia’s foreign debt and increases energy security. Wider application of ENEF and RES is dealing with a lot of obstacles, e.g. resistance from
suppliers, which have smaller revenues and sell less energy because of expansion of ENEF and
RES. There are multiple methods of dealing with such obstacles.
Countries that put ENEF and RES in their energy policy focus, are dealing easier with crisis, with
minimum unemployment rates.
Regardless of results of COP21 in Paris in December 2015, Croatia would benefit from orientation
to rapid development and implementation of ENEF and RES.
GENERALNI SPONZORI:
POKROVITELJI:
DAROVATELJI:
MEDIJSKI POKROVITELJ:
Generatori i motori d.d.