22.2.2016 tradenet report

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22.2.2016 Wall Street Pauses to 1,950 Points: Trader’s New Obsession!

S2S1PPR1R2 Daily changeLast Index

(-0.13%)16,392DJX

189.81 190.91191.54192.64193.270.00%1,918SPX

100.08 100.85101.40102.17102.720.38%4,504Nasdaq

Stocks closed mixed on Friday as they tried to shake off the losses in crude; with that said, stocks still

succeeded in capping off no more and no less than their strongest week of gains year to date. The S&P 500

rallied 2.9% for the week. It’s encouraging to see that though crude dropped, stocks didn’t fall into line and

drop in lock step with crude – something we had been seeing of late. The link between the trading of the

two needs to be severed for the market to build a lasting rally. It seems that investors are feeling that the

market needs to stabilize to some degree. When considering the fact that the market rallied 6.5% from last

week’s bottom with 3 straight days of gains of at least 1% each, the bearish thrust on Thursday and Friday

was minimal to say the least.

When considering the fact that the economic diary this coming week is jam-packed with economic figures

as well as speeches from economic policymakers, investors in any case were expected to be on watch,

carefully eyeing the Fed for any hint about the central bank’s next move – but a stronger than expected

inflation reading last Friday will sharpen investors’ focus all the more!

After investors entered 2016 with expectations for 3 or 4 rate hikes by year’s end, market players of late had

lowered their forecasts to but one rate hike at most for 2016 on the background of low inflation and globalmarket volatility. Friday’s figures showed though that core consumer inflation – an index calculated by

factoring out volatile and seasonal figures the likes of energy and food – had risen in January at its highest

rate in the last four-and-a-half years to an annualized 2.2%.

The rise in inflationary pressures has already changed market expectations about the next Fed move.

Inflation figures clearly caught the market off guard. At this point just a week ago the market had priced in

a 20% probability of there being one rate hike by year’s end. The chances have now risen 40%, primarily due

to Friday’s inflation figures. The dollar immediately jumped after the figure’s release, the market perceiving

higher inflation as a nod to the Fed to tighten its monetary policy by moving to hike rates.

The stock market has had its pulse on expectations for Fed policy changes. Low interest rates in general tend

to support stock prices, dividend stocks usually receiving preferential treatment from investors – primarily

the service sector (XLU) where interesting dividend stocks can be found. In a rising interest rate environment,

banks tend to take the lead.

Expectations for higher rates represent part of the oft-quoted reason by investors for the market’s 11%

plunge. The S&P 500 has now recorded losses of 6% on the year, after having ended last week up; last week

was only the third winning week this year.


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Inflation figures have now been tacked on to the latest economic figures – strong job market numbers and

strong consumer spending – which will compel the Fed to weigh more seriously implementing further rate

hikes. In other words, the possibility of more rate hikes has been put back on the table.

Consumer spending figures, the index favored by the Fed to gauge the inflation rate, will be released this

coming Friday, and are likely to either confirm or undercut the latest inflationary numbers. The other

economic figures likely to move the market this coming week include the Supply Managers’ Index for the

manufacturing sector and for the service sector, along with two different consumer confidence indexes.

The bulls took comfort this past week in that stocks succeeded in distancing themselves from the latest

bottom, though some traders had hoped that the S&P 500 can successfully break through the key 1,950

point level. Neither crude or China weighed down the market as they had in previous weeks.

Weekly Summary: Indexes soared, ending the week with flying colors, despite the last 2 days of the trading

week. The Dow Jones rose 2.62%, the S&P 500 took off 2.84%, and the NASDAQ surged 3.85%.

SPY Technical Perspective:

The 1,950 point level has become traders’ new obsession. This level on the S&P 500 can be described as the

“line in the sand.” It’s make it or break it for stocks which need to make it past this key hurdle for traders to

have the confidence that the worst is behind them, given the dismal start to the trading year. Some traders

are saying that this is the point at which to take profits, though others are saying that at this point, we’re in

the free and clear, so it’s time to open your purse strings and start buying.

It’s not just that the 1,950 point level is easy to remember. It’s also a level that has served often as a catalyst

for intraday market changes. In particularly volatile trading on August 25th, the S&P 500 rose to a high of

1,948 points before retracing its way back down and closing at a bottom. The following day’s high was 1,943

points. After a number of additional dramatic moves around the 1,950 point level, the S&P 500 soared on

October 2, closing at a high at the 1,951 point level. Another decisive move above this level on the following

trading day signaled the market’s all-too-sweet rally in the month to come!

Of late, the S&P 500 has honed in on its daily high at 1,947 points – or alternatively, at 1,950 points on

January 12th and 13th – and on February 1st.

Now, a breakout above the 1,950 point level seems to be where the bulls are placing their hopes. Likewise,

it seems that traders have become very “technical” of late. The prior level upon which traders obsessed tosuch a degree was the 1,812 point level, perceived as the market’s low – and a level whose breakdown will

set off another wave of negative momentum.

Were the market to rise and close this week above the 1,950 point level that would pave the way for more

gains in the direction of the next resistance level in the 2,000 point area. Any declines this coming week are

likely to halt at the 3 open gaps which accompanied the upward movement the previous week, the most

solid support level being in the 1,800 point area.

Have a great trading week!


3/8

Economic Calendar

DAY TIME (EST) Event Forecast Impact

Tuesday 8:30 Case-Shiller 20-city Index 5.8% Normal

Tuesday

10:00 Consumer Confidence 97.3 High

Tuesday 10:00 Existing Home Sales 5.30M Normal

Wednesday 10:00 New Home Sales 523K Normal

Wednesday 10:30 Crude Inventories - Low

Thursday 8:30 Initial Claims 270K High

Thursday 8:30 Durable Orders 2.0% Normal

Thursday 9:00 FHFA Housing Price Index - Normal

Friday 8:30 GDP - Second Estimate 0.4% High

Friday 8:30 Personal Income 0.4% Normal

Friday 8:30 Personal Spending 0.3% Normal

Friday 8:30 Core PCE Prices 0.1% Normal

Friday 10:00 Michigan Sentiment - Final 91.0 High

https://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/conf.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/conf.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/exist.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/exist.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/newhom.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/newhom.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/claims.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/claims.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/durord.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/durord.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/gdp.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/gdp.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/income.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/income.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/income.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/income.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/income.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/conf.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/conf.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/conf.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/income.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/income.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/gdp.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/durord.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/claims.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/newhom.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/exist.htmlhttps://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/conf.html


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Earnings Calendar

Symbol Company AM/PM Day

AGN Allergan plc AM

Monday

MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. PM

Monday

HD The Home Depot, Inc. AM

Tuesday

M Macy's, Inc. AM Tuesday

SJM The J. M. Smucker Company AM Tuesday

LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. AM

Wednesday

TGT Target Corp. AM

Wednesday

TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. AM Wednesday

CRM salesforce.com, inc. PM

Wednesday

HPQ HP Inc. PM

Wednesday

LB L Brands, Inc. PM Wednesday

NTES NetEase, Inc. PM

Wednesday

APA Apache Corp. AM

Thursday

BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. AM Thursday

CPB Campbell Soup Company AM

Thursday

DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. AM

Thursday

ADSK Autodesk, Inc. PM

Thursday

BIDU Baidu, Inc. PM Thursday

BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. PM

Thursday

DLR Digital Realty Trust Inc. PM

Thursday

EOG EOG Resources, Inc. PM Thursday

GPS The Gap, Inc. PM

Thursday

INTU Intuit Inc. PM

Thursday


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22.2.2016

Today's Picks – Day Trading

s

KHC The Kraft Heinz Company PM

Thursday

MNST Monster Beverage Corporation PM Thursday

PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. PM

Thursday

SBAC SBA Communications Corp. PM

Thursday

Symbol Breakout Breakdown Momentum Momentum

KMT $20.00 ADSK RRC

VZ $51.20 WDAY AN

TRMB $23.86 WTW TMUS

DLR $82.24 UAL

WWAV $38.67

WYN $69.64

ACC $44.00

KS $9.00


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# Date StockLong\

Short Statues

Date

Close

Profit \

Loss# Date Stock

Long

\Short Statues

Date

Close

Profit \

Loss

1 1.2.2016 EQY Long Close 2.2.2016 +0.76% 17

2 3.2.2016 SKX Short Close 10.2.2016 +3.04% 18

3 4.2.2016 BID Long Close 5.2.2015 +0.35% 19

4 8.2.2016 ATI Short Close 12.2.2016 +1.26% 20

5 9.2.2016 ANF Long Close 9.2.2016 -4.3% 21

69.2.2016 IDTI Short Close 16.2.2016 +4.44%

22

7 12.2.2016 FIT Long Close 19.2.2016 +11.67% 23

8 16.2.2016 EXC Long Open +1.86% 24

9 18.2.2016 AEE Long Close 19.2.2016 +0.10% 25

10 18.2.2016 RLYP Short Open -0.27% 26

11 18.2.2016 KORS Long Close 19.2.2016 -0.19% 27

12 19.2.2016 BA Short Open +1.05% 28

13 19.2.2016 GME Short Open +1.59% 29

14 30

15 31

16 32

New York Strategy Swing


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Today's Picks – Swing "New-York Strategy"

Risk Rates: Normal –

Regular size, High –

Consider reducing size, Low –

Consider to increase size

Company Name Kennametal

Entry Point 20

Stop Area 18.891st Target 20.70

Swing Target 22.64Avg. Volume 1.88M

Sector Industrial Goods | Machine Tools& Accessories

Earnings Date -Risk Rate NormalRisk\Reward Ratio 2.38:1

Company Name Wyndham WorldwideEntry Point 69.64

Stop Area 67.90

1st

Target 70.45Swing Target 73.91Avg. Volume 1.39M

Sector Services | Lodging Earnings Date -Risk Rate High

Risk\Reward Ratio 2.45:1

No.2 – WYN No.1 – KMT

http://www.kennametal.com/http://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=sec_industrialgoodshttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_machinetoolsaccessorieshttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_machinetoolsaccessorieshttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_machinetoolsaccessorieshttp://www.wyndhamworldwide.com/http://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=sec_serviceshttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_lodginghttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_lodginghttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_lodginghttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=sec_serviceshttp://www.wyndhamworldwide.com/http://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_machinetoolsaccessorieshttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_machinetoolsaccessorieshttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=sec_industrialgoodshttp://www.kennametal.com/


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Today's Picks – Swing "New-York strategy"

Company Name The WhiteWave FoodsEntry Point 38.67

Stop Area 37.39

1st Target 39.20

Swing Target 40.14Avg. Volume 2.28M

Sector Consumer Goods | Food - MajorDiversified

Earnings Date -Risk Rate NormalRisk\Reward Ratio 1.15:1

Company Name

Entry Point

Stop Area

1st Target

Swing Target

Avg. Volume

Sector

Earnings Date

Risk Rate

Risk\Reward Ratio

No.3 – WWAV No.4 –
http://www.whitewave.com/http://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=sec_consumergoodshttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_foodmajordiversifiedhttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_foodmajordiversifiedhttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_foodmajordiversifiedhttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_foodmajordiversifiedhttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_foodmajordiversifiedhttp://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=sec_consumergoodshttp://www.whitewave.com/

22.2.2016 tradenet report

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