Global Green Growth Institute and Mongolia Country Program

James Seong-Cheol KangCountry Manager/Principal Transport SpecialistGlobal Green Growth Institute (GGGI)

Business Council of Mongolia’s Environment Working Group MeetingJanuary 22, 2014, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

Green Growth

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Global Risks 2013

Rising greenhouse gas emissions

Failure of climate change adaptation

Food shortage crises

Persistent extreme weather

Water supply crises

Species overexploitation

Irremediable pollution

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Global Challenges: Need a New Growth Paradigm

“Brown growth” failed in most of the world for more than a century• Industrialized by the end of the 19th century • No new developed country since then

New constraints & challenges• Resource constraints: depleting natural resources, diminishing space per capita• Deepening economic & social inequality• Climate Change: unprecedented• Degraded Earth’s carrying capacity: food & water security, biodiversity loss,

deforestation, ocean and soil acidification

The changing globalized world • Accelerating increase in demand for resources by connecting the world real

time• Aggravating frustration and anger of the poor• Social, political, economic instability increases

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Global Challenges: Need a New Growth Paradigm

Need a new development paradigm to simultaneously address new constraints and challenges

Urgent, strong, collective efforts required• Decisive and strong action is urgent• Delay means greater risks and higher costs for human development, economies

and the environment• Collective actions of the global community required

“Green growth” as a new solution simultaneously targeting key aspects of • Economic performance• Environmental sustainability• Social inclusiveness

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Green growth is the new revolutionary development paradigm thatsustains economic growth while at the same time ensuring climaticand environmental sustainability. It focuses on addressing the rootcauses of these challenges while ensuring the creation of thenecessary channels for resource distribution and access to basiccommodities for the impoverished (social inclusiveness).

A green economy is one that results in improved human well-beingand social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risksand ecological scarcities. It is low carbon, resource efficient, andsocially inclusive.

Green growth means fostering economic growth and development,while ensuring that natural assets continue to provide the resourcesand environmental services on which our well-being relies.

New Paradigm of Economic Growth: Green Growth

“The significant challenges we face cannot be resolved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.” – Albert Einstein

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Tunneling Through the Traditional Development Path

Mohan Munasinghe (1995, 2007)

Following the “develop first, clean up later”path of developed countries will widen thegap and not be able to catch up.

Old Path : A B C E

International cooperation through technology transfer and fund supports for measures against climate change will enable developing countries to choose the new path and act wisely from the beginning.

New Path : A B D E

Economic Development

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Growth Paths to Sustainable Economy

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Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI)

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Green Growth as a National Agenda

Declaration of a New Vision (August 15, 2008): “Low Carbon, Green Growth” as a new paradigm of development

Past 60 Years

Quantitative, Fossil-Fuel Dependent Economic Growth

Coming 60 Years

Qualitative Economic Growth through Green Innovation, Technology, Knowledge, etc.

National Strategy for Green Growth : Solving Triple Crunch

Korea as a Green Growth Model

Climate Challenge

Economic Slowdown

Energy Challenge

A New Path is

Needed!

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Legal & Institutional Framework for Green Growth

National

Framework Act on Low

Carbon, Green

Growth

Presidential Committee on Green Growth (PCGG)

National Strategy for

Green Growth &

its Five-Year Plan

Regional

East Asia Climate

Partnership (EACP)

Inter-national

Global Green

Growth Institute (GGGI)

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Vision

Mission

GGGI was founded on the belief that economic growth and environmental sustainability are not merely compatible objectives; their integration is essential for the future of humankind.

1. To support developing and emerging countries in the design and implementation of green growth economic development plans at the national or provincial level

2. To promote a new paradigm of economic growth through research on green growth theory and practice

3. To accelerate the transition to green growth by facilitating public-private cooperation

4. To disseminate the results of our research and activity on green growth globally through capacity building and knowledge sharing

GGGI’s Vision and Mission

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Core Programs of GGGI

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Seoul, Korea June 2010

Copenhagen, Denmark December 2009

GGGI launched at the East Asia Climate Forum

The Creation of GGGI announced by President

Lee Myung-Bak at the UNFCCC COP-15

“GGGI will significantly contribute to a variety of UN’s

activities regarding climate change”

- UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon

Copenhagen, DenmarkMay 2011

Opening of Copenhagen Office

Key Milestones of GGGI

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Abu Dhabi, UAEJuly 2011

Opening of Abu Dhabi Office

Global Green Growth Summit 2012

Formal launch as an international organization

Signing ceremony to convert into international

organization at Rio+20

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil June 2012

Seoul, KoreaOctober 2012

Key Milestones of GGGI

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Seoul, KoreaMay 2012

Seoul, KoreaJune 2013

Mongolia joined GGGI

Governance Structure of GGGI

Assembly (20 member countries)• Australia, Cambodia, Costa Rica, Denmark, Ethiopia, Guyana, Indonesia, Kiribati,

Mexico, Mongolia, Norway, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Philippines, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Rwanda, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Vietnam

Council• Contributing Members: Australia, Denmark, Norway, Qatar, United Arab

Emirates• Participating Members: Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Kiribati, Papua New

Guinea• Experts or Non-State Actors: Mr. Las Løkke Rasmussen, Mr. Montek Ahluwalia,

Mr. Suh-Yong Chung• Host Country: Republic of Korea

Secretariat• Director-General: Mr. Howard Bamsey• Headquarters at Seoul, Korea• Hubs: Copenhagen, Abu Dhabi, London

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Countries Institutions Private Sector

Partners

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Green Growth Planning Program Portfolio

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Mongolia

Kazakhstan

ChinaIndia

Indonesia

Philippines

Cambodia

Vietnam

Morocco

UAE

Ethiopia

Rwanda

Brazil

Project Implementation

South Africa

Thailand

Jordan

Peru

Scoping

Set-up

Amazon Basin

Mekong River

Kenya & EAC

Aral Sea Basin

Mexico

Investment Planning

Mongolia Country Program

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Background of Mongolia Country Program

Mongolia’s economy has grown substantially since 1991 when Mongolia began a transition to a free market-oriented economy.

• Double-digit GDP growth rates for 2011-2012

• Identified by Citigroup as one of “Global Growth Generators” for 2010-2050

The “natural resource based brown economy” has been degrading environment and vulnerable to outside shock.

• Mining sector accounts for about 20% of GDP

• Mongolia’s emissions intensity per unit of GDP among the world’s highest

• From 1940 to 2008, the annual mean air temperature increased by 2.14℃ (about 3 times the global average increase)

• Mongolia’s Initial National Communication to UNFCCC projected nearly five-fold emissions growth between 1993 and 2020 under BAU

Mongolian government is seeking diversified, green, and sustainable economic growth.

• Concept of green development as a new economic development strategy

• Established Ministry of Environment and Green Development and made it one of the core ministries

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Background of Mongolia Country Program

For cooperative pursuit of green growth in Mongolia, GGGI and the Ministry of Environment and Green Development* signed an MOU in November 2011.

Mongolia signed the “Agreement on the Establishment of the Global Green Growth Institute” on June 9, 2013 and became the 19th Member State.

GGGI aims to assist the Mongolian government in developing and implementing a national green growth plan, with a top-down strategic approach, while also to promote sectoral green growth strategies that are tailored to specific needs of Mongolia, with a bottom-up practical approach.

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* Then Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism

Government of MongoliaGlobal Green Growth Institute

Objective

• Based on the partnership with MEGD, GGGI has been supporting the Mongolian government in its

efforts to develop and implement green growth strategies in the transport and energy sectors that

are tailored to the specific needs of Mongolia.

Key Stakeholders

• Ministry of Environment and Green Development

• Ministry of Roads and Transportation

• Ministry of Energy

• Ulaanbaatar City Government

Projects

• Strategies for Green Public Transport in Mongolia

• Strategies for Development of Green Energy Systems in Mongolia

GGGI signed an MOU with the Ministry of Environment and Green Development (MEGD) of Mongolia in November 2011 to cooperate in programs and joint activities that foster the promotion of green growth in Mongolia.

Overview of Mongolia Country Program

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Partnership

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Primary

Government

Counterpart

Transport Sector Project Energy Sector Project

Ministry of

Roads &

Transportation

Project Advisory Committee Project Advisory Committee

Ministry of Environment &

Green Development

Key

Government

Counterparts

Mongolian

Local Partners

Ministry of Energy

Ulaanbaatar

City

Government

GGGI

MOU Signed

UN

ESCAP,

UNDP,

UNEP

WB,

ADB,

TNC,

GIZ,

BCM

Local Consulting Firm Team of Local Consultants

Potential

IO/MDB/NGO

Partners

Main Tasks

• Technical and economic assessment for converting diesel buses to eco-friendly buses

• Enhancement of inspection rules and regulations for vehicle emission control

• Effective management and operation strategies for the public transport system

• Future extension to eco-station development for green transport

Background & Motivation

• 20% of the total air pollution is due to the increasing number of automobiles and their emission of greenhouse and toxic gases

Project Goal

• To promote green (i.e., low carbon) public transport in Ulaanbaatar City and thereby contribute to reducing GHG emissions and improving the air quality

Project Team

• Global Green Growth Institute, The Korea Transport Institute, DEBUHDE Co., Ltd. (Mongolian Local Consulting Firm), and Advisory Committee

Strategies for Green Public Transport in Mongolia

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Converting Diesel Buses to CNG Buses

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Diesel Bus CNG Bus

CNG Stations

Construction Cost

Vehicle Purchasing

Cost

Fuel Cost

Maintenance Cost

Air Pollutants Reduction

GHG Emissions Reduction

Scenarios for B/C Analysis

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Annual fuel prices increase

Diesel

1%

2%

3%

1%

2%

3%

Percentage of diesel buses converted into CNG buses

CNG

5% converted 10% converted 15% converted 20% converted

3 stations 6 stations 9 stations 12 stations

Ways to Promote Public Transport Systems

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Bus Route Reform

• Economize Bus Routes by

introducing Trunk and Feeder

System

Fare System

• Provide Rider Incentives to Use

Bus/Public Transport

Smart Card

• Enhance Fare Collection

Transparency/ User Convenience

ITS

• BMS/BIS

• Enhance Traffic Management

Efficiency and Bus Info

Exclusive Median Bus

Lane

• Improve Bus Traffic Speed

Ownership Issues

• Introducing Quasi-Public Operation

System

Transfer Center

• Connects Transport Modes to Improve User

Convenience

Potential Impact on CO2 Reduction

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Bus Route Reform

When the rate of modal shift to buses is 33% ,

the expected reduction of CO2 emissions is

about 16,000 t-CO2/year

Improvement of ITS

If the travel speed is improved to 40km/h through

improvement of ITS, the expected reduction of CO2

emissions is about 49,000 t-CO2/year

Knowledge Sharing and Capacity Building

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Sharing Outcomes

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Main Tasks

• Assessment of the current status of Mongolian energy sector

• Identification, elaboration, and evaluation of key energy scenarios for Mongolia

• Proposal of key green energy/green growth initiatives for Mongolia

Background & Motivation

• With long cold winters and an annual average temperature of -3℃ and being the world’s most scarcely populated country, Mongolia faces considerable challenges to provide sufficient energy in terms of both quantity and quality

• Mongolia has a great potential for developing different types of renewable energy, and its abundant coal can be cleanly and effectively used

Project Goal

• To develop strategies for promoting the implementation of green energy systems in Mongolia

Project Team

• Global Green Growth Institute, Stockholm Environment Institute US Center, Team of Mongolian Local Consultants, and Advisory Committee

Strategies for Development of Green Energy Systems

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Reference

• Continuation of largely coal-based energy supply for a rapidly expanding economy driven by mining exports, particularly coal and copper. Gradual improvement in energy intensity of demand

Recent Plans

• Same economic and demographic forecast, but with accelerated introduction of priority technologies reflecting recent developments and priorities. These include large hydro and wind plants, advanced coal combustion technology, and efficient lighting and apartment building insulation improvements

Expanded Green Energy• Same economic and demographic drivers, however with more rapid buildup of all

proposed renewable energy projects accompanied by extensive implementation of energy efficiency measures economy-wide

Shifts in Energy Exports

• Same as expanded green energy scenario but with an additional shift in the types of fuel and energy exported from coal to renewable electricity (wind and solar)

Four Scenarios

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Use of Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software tool for integrated energy supply-demand modeling and scenario evaluation

Bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy and GHG-reduction scenarios assembled using the LEAP model

Calculation of GHG emissions reduction and abatement costs

Project Final Presentation on January 23

(1:30 pm at the Blue Sky Hotel & Tower)

Scenario Analysis

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Project Consultation and Capacity Building

• 1st: March 13-15, 2013 in Ulaanbaatar

• 2nd: June 18-26, 2013 in Seoul

• 3rd: October 15-18, 2013 in Ulaanbaatar

Knowledge Sharing and Capacity Building

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Path to Green Mongolia

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БаярлалааThank you

jsc.kang@gggi.org

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